Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 494 Fort McMurray Cold Lake residents by

Smart IVR on September 10, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed.
Margin of Error: +/- 4.40%, 19 times out of 20.
Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

BY ELECTION REMATCH IN FORT MCMURRAYCOLD LAKE

September 14, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Conservative
candidate David Yurdiga leading in Fort McMurray-Cold Lake with 35% to Liberal Kyle Harriethas
27% - an 8% lead. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.40%, 19 times out
of 20.
Harrietha is trailing in the by election rematch but there is still plenty of time left to go, said
David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. Yurdiga has a strong lead with
those over 65 and Harrietha leads by 5% among those 35-49 so there are some generational
differences at play here. Meanwhile the NDP is at 12% and the Greens are at 4% but many voters,
22% in fact, are undecided and up for grabs.
Voters in Fort McMurray-Cold Lake have a pessimistic view of the state of the economy. Only 28%
are optimistic about their own personal finances and even fewer, 22%, are optimistic about the
Alberta economy.
This should come as no surprise. Our polling in August found Albertans are similarly pessimistic
about the economy and their finances, continued Valentin.
For Mr. Harper there are some strong numbers in this poll. 42% believe he would do best at
helping the oil and gas sector. Mr. Trudeau follows at 26% with Mr. Mulcair trailing at 9%, Valentin
finished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently,
Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Phone Interview: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

All Voters
David Yurdiga (CPC)

David Yurdiga (CPC)

Melody Lepine (NDP)
Kyle Harrietha (LPC)
Brian Deheer (GPC)
Undecided
Sample

David Yurdiga (CPC)

Melody Lepine (NDP)
Kyle Harrietha (LPC)
Brian Deheer (GPC)

Melody Lepine (NDP)

5%

35%

15%

45%

22%

4%

27%

12%

35%

If the federal election were

held today,
which
candidate would you support?
LEANING
AND
DECIDED

Decided Only
Kyle Harrietha (LPC)

18-34
33%
17%
27%
7%
17%
86

35-49
29%
11%
34%
4%
23%
168

Certain
34%
11%
29%
4%

Brian Deheer (GPC)

50-64
35%
9%
28%
1%
27%
169
Likely
31%
11%
25%
3%

Undecided

65+ Male Female

50% 43%
27%
8%
11%
12%
14% 30%
25%
3%
3%
4%
25% 13%
32%
70
251
242
Might
45%
16%
7%
1%

Unlikely
39%
10%
32%
8%

A4

And, in your opinion, which federalLEANING

party leader
you think can best help create jobs in the
ANDdo
DECIDED
oil and gas sector and/or secure support for the construction of pipelines?

22%

42%
1%

26%

9%

Stephen Harper (CPC)

Tom Mulcair (NDP)
Justin Trudeau (LPC)
Elizabeth May (GPC)
Undecided
Sample

18-34
43%
10%
23%
2%
22%
86

35-49
39%
10%
31%
1%
20%
168

50-64
41%
10%
27%
1%
22%
169

65+ Male Female

48% 46%
38%
7%
8%
10%
21% 28%
24%
1%
1%
1%
24% 17%
27%
70
251
242

A5

Thinking about the next 12 months,

would AND
you say
you feel optimistic or pessimistic about
LEANING
DECIDED
your own familys financial situation?

28%

31%

41%

Optimistic

Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not Sure
Sample

Pessimistic

18-34
17%
45%
38%
86

Not Sure

35-49
34%
45%
21%
168

50-64
38%
32%
30%
169

65+ Male Female

20% 29%
26%
41% 36% 46%
39% 35%
28%
70
251
242

A6

AND
Thinking about the next 12 months,LEANING
would you
sayDECIDED
you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the
state of the Alberta economy?

22%

23%

54%

Optimistic

Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not Sure
Sample

Pessimistic

18-34
19%
48%
34%
86

Not Sure

35-49
31%
58%
11%
168

50-64
18%
57%
24%
169

65+ Male Female

20% 17%
27%
56% 59% 50%
24% 24%
23%
70
251
242

A7

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming federal election?

Certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
And if the federal election were held today, which candidate would you support?
David Yurdiga of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Melody Lepine of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Kyle Harrietha of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Brian Deheer of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And, in your opinion, which federal party leader do you think can best help create jobs in
the oil and gas sector and/or secure support for the construction of pipelines?
Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party
Tom Mulcair of the NDP
Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party
Elizabeth May of the Green Party
Not Sure
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic
or pessimistic about your own familys financial situation?
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not Sure
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic
or pessimistic about the state of the Alberta economy?
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not Sure