Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

Research Forecast Report

Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and

forecasts 20142019
July 2014
Satvik Singhania, Nipun Jaiswal and Tom Mowat

Analysys Mason Limited 2014

Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

About this report

This report provides:

Figure 1: Summary of report coverage [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]

a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed

KPIs for the emerging AsiaPacific (EMAP) region as a
whole and for key countries
an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and
well-documented forecast assumptions for each type
of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

a summary of results, key implications and

recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market
experts from our topic-led Research programmes and
Consulting division, as well as external interviews.
In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts
draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies
a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources,
standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

Analysys Mason Limited 2014

Major KPIs

Regions modelled:
Emerging
AsiaPacific

Connections

Revenue

Mobile
Handset, mobile
broadband1, M2M2
Prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G
Smartphone,
non-smartphone
Fixed
Voice, broadband,
IPTV, dial-up
Narrowband voice,
VoBB
DSL, FTTH/B,
cable, BFWA

Mobile
Service3, retail
Prepaid, contract
Handset, mobile
broadband1, M2M2
Handset voice,
messaging, data
Fixed
Service3, retail
Voice, broadband,
IPTV, dial-up, BNS
DSL, FTTH/B,
cable, BFWA

Voice traffic

Mobile:
SIMs, handset
Prepaid, contract
Handset voice, data

Countries modelled
individually
Bangladesh
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Pakistan
Thailand
Vietnam

an overview of operator strategies and country-specific

topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by
means of a cross-country comparison

For the complete data set and our data series definitions, see
the accompanying Excel file at
www.analysysmason.com/EMAP-2014.

Geographical
coverage

Fixed and mobile

Outgoing minutes,
MoU

ARPU

Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.

M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

Contents
Slide no.

Slide no.

9.

22. Mobile connections: China will drive the growth in LTE, although the
number of 3G connections will continue to increase

Executive summary

10. Mobile voice revenue will plateau and mobile handset data will form an
increasing proportion of total telecoms retail revenue
11. Mobile messaging and fixed voice and narrowband will be the only two
service types to register negative revenue growth during 20132019
12. China and India will continue to be the two largest markets in EMAP,
together accounting for almost 78% of retail revenue in the region
13. Compared with our previous forecast, mobile handset data revenue will
be higher in 2018, but fixed broadband and IPTV, and mobile voice, are
lower
14. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market
15. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market
16. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
17. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
18. Geographical coverage: Our forecasts include a detailed breakdown of
Vietnam for the first time
19. Market context: Most telecoms markets in EMAP are yet to reach
saturation
20. Fixed and mobile penetration: Fixed broadband penetration is low and
will increase to 9% by 2019, while mobile handset penetration will reach
96%

21. Mobile penetration: Penetration is at only 76.4% despite significant

multiple-SIM ownership and it will continue to increase

Analysys Mason Limited 2014

23. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone take-up varies by country, but will
account for 52.4% of handsets in the region by 2019

24. Mobile ARPU: The rate of decline of mobile ARPU will slow down
because increased spend on data will partially offset the decline in voice
and SMS
25. Fixed services: Fibre broadband connections will drive growth and
mobile connections will continue to replace fixed voice
26. Fixed broadband: Penetration is low and growing in all markets,
particularly Indonesia
27. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data will drive revenue growth and
fixed broadband will increase at slightly above the overall market rate

28. Service revenue: Distribution of telecoms service revenue will remain

largely constant during 20132019
29. Revenue mix: Mobiles share of total service revenue will increase
during the next 6 years in every country except Indonesia
30. Individual country forecasts
31. Bangladesh: Solid growth is expected in mobile broadband revenue, but
growth in mobile voice revenue will subside
32. Bangladesh: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
33. Bangladesh mobile: Rising mobile penetration is expected and
operators are trying to curb the mobile ARPU decline

Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

Contents
Slide no.

Slide no.

34. Bangladesh fixed: Penetration of fixed broadband will continue to be

low because consumers prefer mobile broadband

47. Malaysia: Total telecoms service revenue growth will flatten out before
2019 as the market approaches maturity and saturation

35. China: Telecoms revenue growth will continue to be driven by handset

data spend, as fixed voice faces increased pressure

48. Malaysia: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

36. China: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

49. Malaysia mobile: LTE adoption is expected to rise as operators boost

coverage and seed the market with 4G handsets

37. China mobile: The launch of 4G will continue to drive growth,

increasing handset data spend and stabilising ARPU

50. Malaysia fixed: Fibre will be the major driver of fixed broadband
growth and will boost IPTV adoption

38. China fixed: Voice continues to be under pressure from increasing

mobile penetration, while broadband growth slowed

51. Pakistan: Handset data revenue will drive growth since 3G services
were launched in May 2014, while voice revenue will stagnate

39. India: Service revenue growth slowed in 2013, because of a sharp

decline in mobile voice revenue growth, and this will persist

52. Pakistan: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

40. India: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

53. Pakistan mobile: The market has significant room for growth, although
increased competition for 3G will drive down ARPU

41. India mobile: Mobile penetration will continue to increase, as will

smartphone adoption, although 4G will not make any impact

54. Pakistan fixed: Service penetration is low, but voice connections are
declining and broadband growth is slowing

42. India fixed: Broadband penetration growth halted in 2013, but is

expected to resume in 2015, while voice continues to decline

55. Thailand: Almost all telecoms market areas will grow during
20132019, particularly mobile data services and fixed broadband

43. Indonesia: Telecoms retail revenue growth continues across all

segments apart from mobile voice and fixed voice

56. Thailand: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

44. Indonesia: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

57. Thailand mobile: High mobile penetration will continue to grow further
propelled by rising smartphone take-up and 3G adoption

45. Indonesia mobile: Penetration will continue to grow as operators push

and promote affordable mobile devices and services

58. Thailand fixed: DSL connections will continue to increase but growth
will be mostly driven by fibre broadband

46. Indonesia fixed: Telkoms ambitious plans for extensive fibre roll-out
are expected to boost fixed broadband adoption in the country

59. Vietnam: Service revenue decreased significantly in 2013 because of a

decline in mobile voice, but is expected to stabilise in 2015

Analysys Mason Limited 2014

Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

Contents
Slide no.

60. Vietnam: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

61. Vietnam mobile: Growth in mobile connections slowed in 2013 as
operators increased 3G prices and SIM restrictions were imposed
62. Vietnam fixed: Fibre broadband connections will provide limited
growth while voice connections are declining slowly
63. About the authors and Analysys Mason
64. About the authors
65. About Analysys Mason
66. Research from Analysys Mason
67. Consulting from Analysys Mason

Analysys Mason Limited 2014

Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

List of figures
Figure 1:

About this report

Figure 2:

Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue

(retail and wholesale), emerging AsiaPacific, 20092019

Figure 3:

Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia

Pacific, 20132019

Figure 4: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (20132019) and
market size by total retail revenue (2019), by country, emerging
AsiaPacific

Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service

revenue, previous and new forecasts, emerging AsiaPacific,
2013 and 2018
Figure 6: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the mobile market,
emerging AsiaPacific

Figure 13: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M),

and 3G and 4Gs share of connections, emerging AsiaPacific,
20092019
Figure 14: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTEs share of
total connections (excluding M2M), emerging AsiaPacific, 2013
and 2019
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging AsiaPacific, 20092019
Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and
mobile broadband connections, emerging AsiaPacific, 2009
2019
Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, emerging
AsiaPacific, 20092019

Figure 7: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the fixed market,
emerging AsiaPacific

Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed
broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, emerging AsiaPacific,
20092019

Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed

broadband household penetration, by country, 2019

Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue
and growth rates, emerging AsiaPacific, 20132019

Figure 9: Metrics for the eight countries modelled individually in emerging

AsiaPacific, 2013

Figure 20: Service revenue by country, emerging AsiaPacific, 2013

Figure 10: Fixed and mobile penetration rates by service type, emerging
AsiaPacific, 20092019

Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service
revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, emerging Asia
Pacific, 2013 and 2019

Figure 11: Connections by service type, and growth rates, emerging Asia
Pacific, 20132019
Figure 12: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M),
emerging AsiaPacific, 20092019

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Figure 21: Service revenue by country, emerging AsiaPacific, 2019

Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Bangladesh, 20092019
Figure 24: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue
and growth rates, Bangladesh, 20132019

Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

List of figures
Figure 25: Connections by type, and growth rates, Bangladesh, 20132019

Figure 44: ARPU rates by type, India, 20092019

Figure 26: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Bangladesh

Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, India, 20092019

Figure 27: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Bangladesh,

20092018

Figure 46: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, India, 20092019

Figure 28: ARPU rates by type, Bangladesh, 20092018

Figure 29: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Bangladesh, 20092018
Figure 30: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Bangladesh, 20092018

Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Indonesia, 20092018
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue
and growth rates, Indonesia, 20132019

Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), China, 20092019

Figure 49: Connections by type, and growth rates, Indonesia, 20132019

Figure 32: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue
and growth rates, China, 20132019

Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Indonesia, 2009

2018

Figure 33: Connections by type, and growth rates, China, 20132019

Figure 52: ARPU rates by type, Indonesia, 20092018

Figure 34: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, China

Figure 53: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Indonesia, 20092018

Figure 35: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, China, 20092019

Figure 54: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Indonesia, 20092018

Figure 36: ARPU rates by type, China, 20092019

Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Malaysia, 20092018

Figure 37: Fixed penetration rates by service type, China, 20092019

Figure 38: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, China, 20092019
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), India, 20092019
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue
and growth rates, India, 20132019

Figure 50: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Indonesia

Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue
and growth rates, Malaysia, 20132019
Figure 57: Connections by type, and growth rates, Malaysia, 20132019
Figure 58: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Malaysia

Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, India, 20132019

Figure 59: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Malaysia, 2009

2018

Figure 42: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, India

Figure 60: ARPU rates by type, Malaysia, 20092018

Figure 43: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, India, 20092019

Figure 61: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Malaysia, 20092018

Analysys Mason Limited 2014

Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

List of figures
Figure 62: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Malaysia, 20092018
Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Pakistan, 20092019
Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue
and growth rates, Pakistan, 20132019

Figure 80: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue
and growth rates, Vietnam, 20132019
Figure 81: Connections by type, and growth rates, Vietnam, 20132019
Figure 82: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Vietnam

Figure 65: Connections by type, and growth rates, Pakistan, 20132019

Figure 83: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Vietnam, 2009

2019

Figure 66: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Pakistan

Figure 84: ARPU rates by type, Vietnam, 20092019

Figure 67: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Pakistan, 2009

2019

Figure 85: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Vietnam, 20092019

Figure 68: ARPU rates by type, Pakistan, 20092019

Figure 69: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Pakistan, 20092019
Figure 70: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Pakistan, 20092019
Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Thailand, 20092019
Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue
and growth rates, Thailand, 20132019

Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, Thailand, 20132019

Figure 74: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Thailand
Figure 75: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Thailand, 2009
2019
Figure 76: ARPU rates by type, Thailand, 20092019
Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Thailand, 20092019
Figure 78: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Thailand, 20092019
Figure 79: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Vietnam, 20092019

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Figure 86: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Vietnam, 20092019

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Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

Geographical coverage: Our forecasts include a detailed breakdown of

Vietnam for the first time
Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, 2019 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]1
Pakistan

2015

China

2014

10%

60%

Vietnam
India

2016

10%

2012

37%

Thailand

Key
Mobile connections by
technology generation

2014

Fixed broadband
household penetration

36%

2G
3G

2011

4G

74%

Bangladesh

Malaysia

Indonesia

Year of
LTE launch

2014

8%

2013

64%

2014

25%

Countries modelled individually

Countries modelled as part of the region

For a full list of countries modelled as part of the emerging AsiaPacific region, please see the accompanying data annex. Mobile connections exclude M2M connections. Fixed broadband household
penetration is calculated as total fixed broadband connections (residential and business) divided by the number of households.

Analysys Mason Limited 2014

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Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

Mobile penetration: Penetration is at only 76.4% despite significant

multiple-SIM ownership and it will continue to increase
EMAP will have just over 4 billion mobile connections in
2019. Mobile SIM penetration is expected to increase from
76.4% in 2013 to 101.4% in 2019. Unlike the telecoms
markets in developed AsiaPacific (DVAP), EMAP is
dominated by prepaid subscriptions. Contract SIMs
accounted for only 16.5% of handset connections in 2013,
and this will remain relatively constant till 2019 (16.7%).
Consumers in EMAP countries are extremely price-sensitive,
and competition among operators often leads to price wars
and frequent promotions. This has led to a high degree of
multiple-SIM ownership and churn in the region.

Figure 12: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M),

emerging AsiaPacific, 20092019 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014]

Percentage of the population

180%
160%
140%

120%
100%
80%
60%

40%
20%

Bangladesh
India
Malaysia
Thailand
Emerging AsiaPacific
Analysys Mason Limited 2014

China
Indonesia
Pakistan
Vietnam

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

0%

Mobile take-up increased dramatically in Thailand in 2013

thanks to the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications
Commissions (NBTCs) new regulation to extend prepaid
validity. Mobile penetration is already high in Thailand, and
we expect the growth in 2013 to be an anomaly, so have
forecast slower growth in the coming years. The expiry of
licences and changing market structure should encourage
operators to switch off a significant number of dormant SIMs.
Vietnam has a high rate of multiple-SIM ownership. The
sharp decline in the number of SIMs in 2013 is because the
Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC)
introduced several measures to limit the number of SIMs per
owner, including a VND25 000 (USD1.25) SIM registration
fee in January 2013.

Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

Executive summary
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Individual country forecasts
About the authors and Analysys Mason

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Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

64

About the authors

Satvik Singhania (Research Analyst) joined Analysys Mason in 2012 as a Research Analyst in the Singapore office
and works on our AsiaPacific research programme. He has taken part in and led a number of key research
projects as well as been involved in examining and forecasting the overall size of the telecoms market in developed
and developing AsiaPacific and producing market reports for various Asian countries. Before joining Analysys
Mason, Satvik was a strategy and risk management consultant at Dragonfly, where he oversaw a number of
projects in alternative energy investments for an oil major. Satvik has a degree in Economics and Finance from the
Singapore Management University.
Nipun Jaiswal (Analyst) is an analyst in Analysys Masons Singapore office. He specialises in the AsiaPacific
telecoms, media and related technologies markets. He is an expert in tracking, analysing and forecasting telecoms
market data, and in providing corporate strategy, competitive analysis, market insights and market intelligence. Prior
to joining Analysys Mason, Nipun was an industry analyst in Frost & Sullivan's ICT research and growth consulting
team for AsiaPacific, based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Nipun has a strong technical background, having worked
extensively on mobile network management solutions in the OSS domain for a Tier 1 telecoms equipment vendor
based in Europe and India. Nipun holds an MBA in global business from the S P Jain School of Global Management
(Singapore and Dubai) and a degree in Computer Engineering from Bharati Vidyapeeth University (India).
Tom Mowat (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Masons AsiaPacific research programme and is
based in our Singapore office. His research covers the entire AsiaPacific region, and includes market data and
forecasts for 14 key markets as well as thematic reports covering key issues in the region in detail. Tom has
extensive expertise in fixed and mobile broadband services, strategy and forecasting, regulatory issues, cost
modelling and the particular issues affecting telecoms markets in developing regions. His experience includes
working as a researcher and consultant in multiple countries across four continents for clients throughout the value
chain. Tom has degrees in mathematical and particle physics from the University of Nottingham and the University
of Durham.

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Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

65

About Analysys Mason

Knowing whats going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the
complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist
knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research.

Consulting
Our focus is exclusively on TMT.
We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on
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and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy.
We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible
results for clients around the world.
For more information, please visit www.analysysmason.com/consulting.

Research
We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by
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For more information, please visit www.analysysmason.com/research.
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Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

Research from Analysys Mason

We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors,
through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world.

Alongside our standardised suite of research programmes, our Custom Research team undertakes specialised, bespoke research
projects for clients. The dedicated team offers tailored investigations and answers complex questions on markets, competitors and
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To find out more, please visit www.analysysmason.com/research.
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Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

Consulting from Analysys Mason

For more than 25 years, our consultants have
been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence
to enable clients around the world to make
the most of their opportunities.
Our clients in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT)
sectors operate in dynamic markets where change is
constant. We help shape their understanding of the future
so they can thrive in these demanding conditions. To do
that, we have developed rigorous methodologies that
deliver real results for clients around the world.
Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We advise clients on
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develop spectrum strategy, support multi-billion dollar
investments, advise on operational performance and
develop new business strategies. Such projects result in a
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We help clients solve their most pressing problems,
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To find out more, please visit
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Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20142019

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