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This is an update to the article I wrote in mid-2013 that projected the future returns to be earned from
stocks and bonds through the remainder of this decade. The article was based on research I conducted
in writing my best-selling book, Jackass Investing: Dont do it. Profit from it i.
Unfortunately, for people intent on adhering to a conventional 60-40 portfolio, or gambling ii their
returns on placing money primarily in stocks, future returns do not look promising. The projected
returns are lower than most people anticipate for two primary reasons:
The stock market rally that has taken place over the past few years has dramatically increased
the multiple that people are now paying for stocks and unless this time is different has the
effect of reducing todays future return potential, and
Current profit margins have expanded to a level that is well above their long-term average.
Unless this time is different a return to a more normal level will serve as a drag on profits over
the remainder of this decade.
But before we get into the basis for my projection, lets take a look at the three primary return drivers
that power stock market returns. I outline these in the first two chapters iii of my book:
1. Corporate earnings growth
2. Investor sentiment
3. Dividends
Now Ill show how each of these returns drivers is projected to contribute to the future returns from
stocks.
Return contribution from corporate earnings growth
Since 1900, earnings growth for companies in the S&P 500 (and its predecessor indexes) has averaged
4.73% iv. Because we use a 10-year average of earnings (as described in the next section) to calculate the
likely level of stocks at the end of the decade, the effect of dropping off the poor earnings during the
financial crisis has the effect of increasing the real 10-year average earnings growth rate over the
remainder of this decade to above this level. For example, if profit margins remain at todays level,
earnings will grow at 7.19% from year-end 2013 to year-end 2020.
Unfortunately for future returns however, todays profit margins are a fair amount above the longerterm average. Depending on the time period measured and companies included in the measurement, a
normal profit margin is approximately 7% v, while todays profit margin on the S&P 500 is in the range
of 9.5% vi. There are a number of factors that have contributed to todays higher profit margins, among
them low interest rates, constrained payroll costs and capital expenditures, and increased profits (and
lower taxes) derived from non-US business. And there are those who contend that these changes are
structural and will persist. Perhaps. But to accept this is to believe that this time is different.
As a result, I believe that profit margins are likely to decline to the longer-term average of 7% by yearend 2020. As profit margins revert towards their long-term average, earnings growth will be subdued.
To expect something different is betting against the odds. The result is that corporate profits on the S&P
500 are likely to grow at a 5.53% annual rate.
+5.53%
- 5.85%
+2.62%
+2.30%
This performance is dramatically lower than what conventional investment wisdom has led people to
expect. Even if profit margins remain at todays high levels, the total return from stocks will be, at 4.3%,
only half of what people have come to expect. The math is rather straightforward. To expect a different
result than what is shown here is to insist that this time is different.
Return contribution from bonds
For the past 32 years the Barclay Aggregate Bond Index averaged annualized returns of 8.46%.
Unfortunately, the two primary return drivers that contributed to that performance, although more
favorable since I wrote my original article, are both destined to provide much lower returns in the
future. They are:
1. The capital appreciation provided as the high interest rate of 13% that prevailed at the start of
the period declined to 1.75% today, xi and
2. The average yield of 5.79% (on the 5-year Treasury note, which approximates the yield on the
Index) over the period.
With the Barclay Aggregate Bond Index now yielding just over 2%, the likely return from bonds over the
remainder of this decade (based on the fact that historically, the yield on the Barclay Aggregate Bond
Index is predictive of total returns over the following 5-10 years) should be similar to the current yield
on the Barclay Aggregate Bond Index, which, as represented by the iShares ETF (AGG) is 2.32%. To
believe otherwise would be to believe that this time is different.
Calculating the return on the 60-40 portfolio
In summary then, based on the above straightforward analysis, from year-end 2013 through year-end
2020 we can expect the following return from a conventional 60-40 portfolio:
Stocks (60%):
Bonds (40%):
+2.30%
+2.32%
Total (60%-40%):
This is obviously much lower than what people have come to expect from a conventionally-diversified
portfolio. It is also likely insufficient to meet most peoples financial needs. This doesnt mean stocks
couldnt go up 30% again in 2014. They could. But they could also drop 30%. In fact, the lower projected
return does not mean lower volatility. History shows that during periods with similar CAPE levels as
today, volatility has actually been higher than normal xii. So while were looking at low returns over the
next seven years, were also looking at above average volatility of those low returns. Clearly, this is a
sub-optimal environment in which to entrust your money to a 60-40 poor-folio.
But this is not a unique situation. Conventional investment wisdom has always encouraged gambling,
rather than investing. Due to its reliance on just four return drivers, the conventional 60-40 portfolio has
never provided true portfolio diversification and has always exposed people to unnecessary risks
relative to the potential return (my definition of Jackass Investing). When those four return drivers
underperform, as is indicated by the projections in this article, performance will suffer, but the risks
remain. The dramatic losses in 2001 and 2008 should serve as a warning. They are not exceptions.
But there is a better way.
Increasing returns and reducing risk with Return Driver based investing
Portfolio diversification is the one true free lunch of investing, where you can achieve both greater
returns and less risk. But true portfolio diversification can only be obtained by diversifying your
portfolio across multiple return drivers xiii. I give examples of a truly diversified portfolio in the final
chapter xiv of my book, and I am pleased to provide a complimentary link to that chapter here: Myth 20.
While some people may prefer to gamble on a less-diversified 60-40 portfolio, as my book shows, in the
longer-term, true portfolio diversification can lead to both increased returns and reduced risk. And
especially today, the odds do not favor a 60-40 gambling approach.