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A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical

and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental


analysis
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION ABOUT THE INTERNSHIP:
Internship is the integral part of the academics of VTU (MBA). It provides the
opportunity to test the interest in a particular career.
The 12 week internship has been positioned during 4 th semester of the MBA program
as it serves the twin purposes of providing critical business insights to students as well
providing industry with graduates of a higher caliber who are ready to get ahead in the
world from day one.
This study has been done to minimize the risk using technical analysis and also to
understand if technical can guide in making effective selling and buying decision.

TITLE OF THE STUDY:


A study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical and FMCG using technical and
fundamental analysis

NEED FOR THE STUDY:

It helps the investors/traders to make the buy or sell decision of the stocks.
It helps to predict the stock prices in near future.
It helps the investors/traders to know the company performances.
It helps the investors/traders to make long and short term profit.
The financial ratios help the investors to make an active investment strategy.

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY:


To study the fluctuations in the market values of the different stocks using the
technical analysis.
To determine the timing of investments and selling of stocks.
To know the future movement of selected companies shares through
fundamental and technical analysis.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY:

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 1

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis

This study is based on the historical data of IT, Pharmaceuticals and FMCG

stocks.
The time span is five years.
Relative Strength Index, Rate of Change and Moving Average Convergence /

Divergence indicators used for Technical Analysis.


Financial Ratios are used for the Fundamental Analysis.

RESEARCH DESIGN:
Methodology
Descriptive Research: The main purpose of Descriptive Research is to
describe the state of view as it exists at present. Simply stated, it is fact finding
investigation. In Descriptive Research definite conclusion can be arrived at,
but it doesnt establish a cause and effect relationship.
Sources
The data collected for the research purpose are secondary data. Index prices
were collected through National Stock Exchange website and through prowess
website. The data employed in this study comprises of 5 year observations on
the NIFTY stock index closing price. Monthly data are preferred in this study.
The choice of monthly closing price is realistic and helpful to calculate and
testing the results in technical analysis.
The data regarding index share price was also taken from website:

www.nseindia.com
www.yahoofinance.com
www.stockcharts.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.investopedia.com

The supplementary sources of data

Technical analysis of stock trends, 9th Edition, Robert D. Edwards, and

John Magee.
Technical analysis of stock trends by Martin Pring.

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Financial journals, dailies like capital market, Dalal Street, and

Economic Times are also used.


Sample Size
Five year monthly closing prices of nifty index have taken for testing the relevance
of technical analysis.
Statistical Tools Used
There are five main indicators in technical analysis that helps to predict the market.
a) Exponential Moving Average = (Price * (2/(1+N)) + (previous EMA * (1 (2/
(1+N)))
b) Relative Strength Index (RSI) = 100 100 ( 1+ RS)
c) Rate of Change (ROC) = [(Close Close n periods ago) / Close n periods
ago)] *100
There are four kinds of financial ratios that a financial analyst will use most
frequently.
a) Liquidity Ratios
i. Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities
ii. Acid Test Ratio = Current Assets Inventories / Current Liabilities
b) Profitability Ratios
i. Gross Profit Margin (%) = Gross Profit / Sales *100
ii. Net Profit Margin (%) = EAT / Net Sales *100
iii.
Return on Net Worth (%) = EAT Pref. Div / Net Worth *100
iv. Return on Capital Employed = EBT / Total Capital Employed *100
c) Leverage Ratios
i. Debt to Equity Ratio = Total Debt / Net Worth
ii. Debt to Asset Ratio = Total Debt / Total Assets
d) Activity Ratios
i. Inventory Turnover Ratio = Cost of Goods Sold / Inventory
ii. Debtors Turnover Ratio = Net Sales / Debtors
iii.
Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio = Net Sales / Fixed Assets
iv. Total Asset Turnover Ratio = Net Sales / Total Assets

LITERATURE REVIEW:
1. According to Grewal S.S and Navjot Grewall (1984) technical analysis is mainly
concern with the study of historical past price movement of the stock in the market to
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predict the future behavior of the stock. However, it does not consider any
fundamental factor of the company like earnings, growth rare, etc.
2. Kavajecz and Odders-White (2004) show that support and resistance levels coincide
with peaks in depth on the limits order book and moves average forecasts reveal
information about the relative position of depth on the book. They also show that
these relationship stem from technical rules locating depth already in place on the
limit order book.

3. Sharma and Robet E. Kennedy (1977) Tested the applicability of random walk
hypothesis to the stock market in developed country namely India, and compare
this to that of stock market in developed countries named USA, and England. For
this purpose the price behavior of Bombay stock examined both for randomness
and independence. The test of random walk hypothesis. The test covers 132
monthly observation for each stock market index of common stock listed in
Bombay exchange for eleven years from 1968-1973. The study indicate that price
dependence while statistically significant, is comparable stock obeys a random
walk and is equivalent to developed countries stock exchange.
4. Bessembinder, H. Chan, K. (1995) assumed whether some simple forms of
technical analysis can predict stock price movement in Asian market. We find the
rules to be quite successful in the emerging market of Malaysia, Thailand and
Taiwan. The rules have less explanatory power in more developed markets such as
Hong Kong and Japan. We also find that technical signal emitted by U.S. market
have substantial forecast power for Asian stock returns beyond that of own-market
signals.

5. According to farmer and joshi (2002: 149-171) a stock trading strategy could
base on the chart pattern. The chart pattern was formed from the movement of the
historic price from the certain stock. The movement of the price of the stock could
be complied in the graph statistic with the exact model.

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6. According to R Chitra .today the health of stock exchange is solely dependent on
the pattern of investment by the investor. As the financial market goes through
brisk changes, investor should look for right opportunities keeping in tune with
the dynamics of market environment. Technical analysis gives investor a better
understanding of the stock and gives them right direction to go on further to buy
or sell the stock.
7. Fernandez-Rodrguez, Gonzalez-Martel and Sosvilla-Rivero (2000)apply an
articial neural network to the Madrid Stock Market and nd that, in the absence
of trading costs, the technical trading rule is always superior to a buy- and-hold
strategy for both bear market and stable market episodes, but not in a bull
market. One criticism I have is that beating the market in the absence of costs
seems of little signicance unless one is interested in nding a signal which will
later be incorporated into a full system. Secondly, it is perhaps naive to work on
the premise that bull and bear markets exist.
8. Neftci (1991)showed that a few of the rules used in technical analysis gen- erate
well-dened techniques of forecasting, but even well-dened rules were shown to
be useless in prediction if the economic time series is Gaussian. How- ever, if the
processes under consideration are non-linear, then the rules might capture some
information. Tests showed that this may indeed be the case for the moving average
rule.
9. Lo, Mamaysky and Wang (2000) examines the eectiveness of technical analysis
on US stocks from 1962 to 1996 and nds that over the 31-year sample period,
several technical indicators do provide incremental information and may have
some practical value.
10. Brown and Jennings (1989) showed that technical analysis has value in a model
in which prices are not fully revealing and traders have rational conjectures about
the relation between prices and signals.

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY:


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A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


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analysis
The study is restricted to selected companies.
Only five years data is taken for the study.
The study is mainly based on the secondary data. As such it is subject to the
limitations of the secondary data.
Lack of expensive software was constrained for this study.
The study has been done on the past data and does not guarantee future
accuracy and reliability.

CHAPTER 2
INDUSTRY PROFILE:
INDIAN STOCK BROKING INDUSTRY
The Indian Broking Industry is one of the oldest trading industries that have been
around even before the establishment of the BSE in 1875. Despite passing through a

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number of changes in the post liberalization period, the industry has found its way
towards sustainable growth.
In 1860, the exchange flourished with 60 brokers. In fact the Share Mania in India
began when the American civil war broke and the cotton supply from the US to
Europe stopped. Further the brokers increased to 250. At the end of the war in 1874,
the market found a place in a street (now called Dalal Street)
The Union Budget 2013: Introduced CTT (commodities transaction tax), on nonagriculture commodities futures trading and reduced STT (Securities Transaction
Tax) on equity futures contracts to 0.01% from 0.017%
In the next few years, even if the Indian market improves, the market share of
foreign players will increase to 80% because they have technology and clients on
their side.
Changing technology and competition from foreigners is forcing most Indian
broking firms to look for other revenue sources
Apart from MotilalOswal, there is not a single listed broking company where the
bulk of revenue comes from pure broking. MotilalOswal is the only exception.
Around 70% of its revenues come from core broking,
There are six listed broking firms, of which three (Edelweiss, IIFL and India-bulls)
known as (NBFCs), where only 20% of the business comes from broking activities
and the rest from lending, private equity or other fee-based businesses like
investment banking.
BSE (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE)
For the premier stock exchange that pioneered the stock broking activity in India, 128
years of experience seems to be a proud milestone. A lot has changed since 1875
when 318 persons became members of what today is called The Stock Exchange,
Mumbai by paying a princely amount of Re 1. Since then, the countrys capital
markets have passed through both good and bad periods. The journey in the 20 th
century has not been as easy one. Till the decade of eighties, there was no scale to
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measure the ups and downs in the Indian stock market. The Stock Exchange, Mumbai
(BSE) in 1986 came out with a stock index that subsequently became the barometer of
the Indian stock market.
SENSEX
It is not only scientifically designed but also based on globally accepted construction
and review methodology. First compiled in 1986, SENSEX is a basket of 30
constituent stocks representing a sample of large, liquid and representing a sample of
large, liquid and representative companies. The base year of SENSEX is 1978-79 and
the base value is 100. The index is widely reported in both domestic and international
markets through print as well as electronic media. The index initially calculated based
on the The Free-float Market Capitalization methodology of index construction is
regarded as an industry based practice globally. All major index providers like MSCI,
FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the Free-float methodology.
NSE (NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE)
The National Stock Exchange of India Limited has genesis in the report of the High
Powered Study Group on Establishment of New Stock Exchange by financial
institutions (FIs) to provide access to investors from all across the country on an equal
footing. Based on the recommendations, NSE was promoted by leading Financial
Institutions at the behest of the Government of India and was incorporated in
November 1992 as a tax paying company unlike other stock exchanges in the country.
On its recognition as a stock exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation)
Act, 1956 in April 1993, NSE commenced operations in the wholesale Debt Market
(WDM) segment in June 1994. The Capital Market (Equities) segment commenced
operations in Derivatives segment commenced in June 2000.
NIFTY
The Nifty is relatively a new comer in the Indian Market. S&P CNX Nifty is a 50
stock index accounting for 23 sectors of the economy. It is used for purposes such as
benchmarking fund portfolios; index based derivatives and index funds. The base
period selected for Nifty is the close of prices on November 3, 1995 which marked the
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completion of one year of operations of NSEs capital market segment. The base
value of index was set at 1000.
S&P CNX Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products Ltd.
(IISL), which is a joint venture between NSE and CRISIL. IISL is a specialized
company focused upon the index as a core product. IISL have a consulting and
licensing agreement with Standard & Poors (S&P), who are world leaders in index
services.

COMPANY PROFILE:
BACKGROUND AND INCEPTION
The Nirmal Bang group of companies was founded by Nirmal Bang, Dilip Bang and
Kishore Bang. The group always believed in developing retail client network and had
wide network of clients all over India. It started up the DP services and also added
broking into commodities and insurance advisory services to diversify into allied
activities. Thus Nirmal Bang became a corporate member of BSE with three
membership rights. The company, besides broking is a depository participant with
NSDL and CSDL. Bang Equity Broking Private Limited was formed in the year 1997.
The company also became the corporate member of the BSE with three membership
rights in the year 1999. The Group was thus the first in the history of the Bombay
Stock Exchange to acquire six membership rights of the Exchange.
Throughout their history, they have fostered overriding purpose to provide each client
with personal service and quality work. By adhering to this principle, they have
grown to become a successful and well-respected firm of highly qualified
professionals. The Group is headed by Mr. Dilip Bang and Mr. Kishore Bang who
bring forward industry expertise, insight and most importantly, create an environment
of unmatched commitment to clients.
They are registered members of the Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE),
National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of
India Limited (MCX), National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Limited

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(NCDEX), National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (NMCE) and MCX
Stock Exchange Limited and are also depository participants of NSDL and CDSL.
NATURE OF BUSINESS
Nirmal Bang Securities was founded in 1986 and is based in Mumbai, India. Nirmal
Bang Securities Pvt Ltd is amongst the top full service broking firm established in the
year 1989. It started as a small localized player and ultimately transformed into a
diverse group in a span of 20 years. The company offers comprehensive range of
products and services to meet the financial needs of its investors. It is solidly
capitalized to meet the demands of retail clients and sufficiently caring to ensure that
service is not compromised. Nirmal Bang Group is recognized as one of the largest
retail broking houses in India, providing an array of financial products and services.
Our retail and institutional clients have access to products such as equities,
derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance,
depository services and PMS. Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited provides an
online share trading platform to customers to trade on its products. The company
offers daily company reports, stock ideas and sector updates. It also provides
franchising opportunities to individual to use its infrastructure by being its channel
partners.

VISION:
To create valuable relationship and provide the best financial services most
professionally.

MISSION:
To work together with integrity and make our customer feel valued

CORE VALUE:
Respect our colleagues and the business itself

TAG LINE:

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A relationship beyond broking

QUALITY POLICY:

Talented, efficient and competent team of youngsters rolling out high profile
applications for the global business community, keeping in mind true quality,
total customer satisfaction, delivering on time, right time, every time.

Always striving for continued improvement and betterment of own set


standards in achieving total quality management.

The quality of the products and services delivered by Nirmal Bang to


customers is the concern of every personnel in the organization. All are
creatively involved in providing high quality products and services through:
Responsiveness to customer needs; Provision of work satisfaction and
promising careers; constant measurement and monitoring of all operations;
Continuous improvements of procedures, products and services; and
performance of operations in a responsible manner.

PRODUCTS / SERVICES:

Equities, Bonds, Derivatives


Managed Investment Services / PMS
Commodities
FX Trading
Life Insurance
General Insurance
Alternative Assets
Private Equity Funds
Structured Products
Real Estate Opportunities Fund
Special Situation Opportunities
Offshore Structures & Global Investments

Their major offerings to customer


Nirmal Bang currently offers the full stock brokerage services in line with the overall
strategy of the group. Some of the major offerings include the following:
Trading in Equities & Derivatives
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Equity trading is offered to retail clients through multiple channels
including online trading in the BSE and the NSE, for cash & derivatives
segments. Live quotes, market commentary and major news are also
offered through its website. This segment contributes a major portion of its
revenue.
Trading in Commodities
The group company is a member of India's premier commodity exchanges,
namely, the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX), the
National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX).
Online Trading
The company offers an online trading portal which is developed and
maintained by Financial Technologies (India) Ltd.
Depository
Nirmal Bang is a depository participant of NSDL and CDS(I)L. It offers
depository services through an online platform provided by Apex Soft cell.
IPO
Nirmal Bang is also involved in the marketing of IPO's. It even offers
information about forthcoming IPO's, open issues, new listing etc.
Margin Funding Service
Margin funding allows the investors to take leverage positions in
the stock market, client has to pay margin of 35 % to 50%
depending upon the scrip and rest is funded by us. To put it simply,
for example in case of scrip prescribed for 35% margin, if client pays
cash margin of Rs.35,000/- he can buy shares of Rs.100000/- and
funding by us would be of Rs.65000/-.Margin can be provided in
cash as well as approved securities.
Portfolio Management Service
PMS, as a product category, is designed to help clients navigate the
increasingly tough and uncertain terrain of the investment world with
total ease and equanimity. Concentrated calls taken by professionals,
who have the experience of negotiating a number of market cycles over
the years, help investors both defend their investments/savings and
consistently perform better than the markets. Thus, Nirmal Bang PMS
offers the vehicles for a comfortable and smooth journey to wealth
creation in the investment arena.
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Organizational Hierarchy:
The organizational structure of Nirmal Bang is tall and hierarchical; the flow
of work, activities and communication is from top to bottom. The head office
located in Mumbai gets information and data from the various regional
branches located throughout India. The regional branches get the information
and data from various sub branches, franchises and sub brokers which are
located in the respective region.

Directors (Main Office)


CEO (Main Office)

CCO (Main Office)

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Accounts/Finance
Risk Management
Regional Head 2
Regional
Head
KYCRegional
Manager
Staff/Employee
Vice
Staff/Employee
Head
1 Head Manager
Staff/Employe
Vice
Head Manager
System
3

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis

Vice Head

AREAS OF OPERATION:
GLOBAL

Dubai
Bangkok
Singapore
Hong Kong

NATIONAL

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
West Bengal
Madhya Pradesh
Assam
Maharashtra
Bihar

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Orissa
Chhattisgarh
Punjab
Delhi
Rajasthan
Goa
Tamil Nadu
Gujarat
Uttar Pradesh
Haryana
Uttaranchal
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand

INFRASTRUCTURE FACILITIES:
Nirmal Bang with over 50000 sq ft of built infrastructure they have used technology
to enable their business and delivery services with cutting edge technology. They have
established a dedicated technology data at Mumbai with built-in all purpose
redundancies to support their clients in Mumbai.
Nirmal Bang got a network infrastructure solution that integrated their trading
application, connectivity, network security, manageability in one platform.
100% branch trading uptime
Nirmal Bang uses ADSL or cable broadband from any ISP to create a VPN to their
HQ Elina Networks auto-failover works between any combinations of network
connections even if they are from different ISPs and different technologies. When the
primary VSAT or leased line fails, trading traffic moves to the VPN over broadband.
Simultaneously an SMS or email alert is triggered to the Nirmal Bang network
administrator, letting them quickly escalate the issue to the ISP. On the secondary link
only trading traffic is allowed with traffic shaping for non-trading traffic.
LAN Segregation

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Nirmal Bang segregates trading, back office, and internet traffic into different network
groups with policy based routing. On VSAT, leased line and VPN, trading traffic is
given highest priority, with back office, or Internet traffic getting only best effort
service on broadband.
Nirmal Bang is satisfied with the simple and robust centralized management features
along with strong network security. Since May 2008, 180 branches of Nirmal Bang
have had the ENPAQ Unified Gateway installed. Trading downtime has been
eliminated, and the IT team has become more efficient.

There are air conditioners, proper lighting and ventilation and

Telecommunication facilities.
Accommodation: Employees has been provided with better seating facility

for their work, along with the better desktop to trade.


Excellent back office software: Back office software is the most required
for a broking house to provide service efficiently. Nirmal Bang is well
equipped by best back office software to comfort their employees and

clients.
Research Centre: There is a separate research team for conducting

researches. The research is in Mumbai Headquarters.


Cafeteria: Employees are provided with cafeteria to refresh themselves
and the organization gives utmost importance to preserve the interests of

their employees.
Televisions: Televisions are screened all around the office to facilitate

situation of different stocks and country.


Seating Facilities: Seating facilities have been done for their clients, and
they are also provided with magazines, and newspapers.

COMPETITIORS INFORMATION:

COMPANY
Motilal Oswal Financial Services

SERVICE OFFERINGS
Equity, Derivatives, Portfolio Management, Online Trading,
Insurance, Commodity Trading, Mutual Funds and Margin

ICICI Direct

Funding
Online Trading, Market and Research, Personal Finance and

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Corporate Services, Equity, Futures and Options, IPO and
HDFC Securities

Life Insurance
Online Trading, Call and Trade, IPO, Equity and

Religare Enterprises Ltd

Derivatives
Equities, Commodity Trading, Wealth Management, Asset
Management, Portfolio Management Services and

Sharekhan

Insurance Solutions
Equities, Commodity Trading, Portfolio Management,

Indiabulls Securities Services Ltd

Mutual Fund Distribution and Derivatives


Equities, Research, Commodities, Mutual Fund Distribution

Edelweiss Capital Ltd

and Derivatives
Equities, Future and Option, Research, Asset Management,

Emkay Global Finance Ltd

and Investment Banking


Wealth Management, e-broking, Research, Commodity

BNP Paribas Financial Services


Ltd
India Infoline Investment
Services Ltd

Trading, Equities and Derivatives


Online Trading, Mutual Fund distribution, Insurance, IPO
and Property services
Online Trading, Equities, derivatives, Commodity trading,
IPO, Mutual Fund, Research, Personal Finance, Investment
Banking and Wealth Management

SWOT ANALYSIS:
STRENGTH

23 years of research and broking experience.


Understandings of the market.
Good financial planner.
Good relationship with customers.
Well deserved company.

WEAKNESS

Low advertisement.
Less scope for performance appraisal of workers.

OPPORTUNITIES

Customer growth.
Employee growth.

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Creativity.
Research.

THREATS:

Market fluctuation / Volatility.


Risk involvement.

FUTURE GROWTH AND PROSPECTS:


The Indian economy is growing at a fast pace. It is officially worlds second fastest
growing economy. The Indian economy is likely to change a lot in the developing
country.
Offering shares to the public in near future years.
Creating at most good faith with the clients than any other.
Over 145000+ retain customers being serviced through central call centre or
web solutions.
To establish 15 new branches serving affluent and aggressive traders through

highly skilled financial advisors.


Strong advisory role through fundamental and technical analysis.
New initiatives in portfolio management services and commodities trading.
To be a lead manager for many forth coming IPO issues.
To extend the wings of customer care desk.
To increase the client base from existing 145000 to more than 200000.
To render best financial services by upgrading the servicing process.
Developing a target investor group and effectively positioning the companys
story to investor community.

Financial Ratios:
Ratios
Return on Asset (%)

Jun 2012
18.26

Jun 2011
12.86

Jun 2010
13.33

Return on Capital Employed (%)

34.27

21.18

24.27

Return on Equity

33.06

23.26

26.39

Return on Investment

--

--

--

Earnings Per Share

28.13

17.40

15.57

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Net Profit Ratio

21.90

17.64

20.80

Gross Profit Ratio (%)

27.60

20.48

24.69

Price-Earnings Ratio

--

--

--

Operating Profit Ratio

--

--

--

Interpretation:
EPS is increasing every year from 2010 to 2012 2. Net operating incomes are
inconsistent in past 3 years but it increased in year 2012 as compared to year
2011. Return on Capital Employed is also inconsistent but it increased in 2012.
Return on Equity is increased from 26.39 in 2010 to 33.06 in 2012. There is no
debt for TCS in current year.

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CHAPTER 3
INTRODUCTION TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Technical analysis is the use of numerical series generated by market activity, such as
price and volume, to predict future trends. The techniques applied to any market with
a comprehensive price history.
Technical analysis mainly seeks to predict the short term price levels, it is important
criteria for selecting the companies to invest, it also provides the base for decisionmaking in investment. The one of the most frequently used yardstick to check and
analyze the underlying price progress. For that matter variety of tools was considered.
This technical analysis is helpful to general investors in many ways. It provides
important and vital information regarding the current price position of the company.
Technical analysis involves the use of various methods for charting, calculating &
interpreting graph & chart to assess the performances and status of the price. It is the
tool of financial analysis, which not only studies but also reflecting the numerical and
graphical relationship between the important financial factors.
The focus of technical analysis is mainly on the internal market data, i.e. prices and
volume data. It appeals mainly to short term traders. It is oldest approach to equity
investment dating back to the late 19th century.
ASSUMPTIONS
The Market discounts Everything
Technical analysis holds that because every possible bit of information is
immediately

included in the price of a security, it is not necessary to

explicitly analyze the fundamental, economic, political, etc. factors that might
influence that price. Because all possible information is reflected in the price,
only a study of the price movement is required.
Price Moves in Trends

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In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trends. This
means that after a trend has been established, the future price movement is
more likely to be in the same direction as the trend than to be against it. Most
technical trading strategies are based on this assumption.
History Tends To Repeat Itself
Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat
itself, mainly in terms of price movement. The repetitive nature of price
movements is attributed to market psychology; in other words, market
participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over
time. Technical analysis uses charge patterns to analyze market movements
and understand trends. Although many of these charts have been used for more
than 100 years, they are still believed to be relevant because they illustrate
patterns in price movements than often repeat themselves.

TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:


Moving Averages
Introduction
Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available to the
technical analysts. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends,
something that is especially helpful in volatile markets. They also form the building
blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays.
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
A simple moving average is formed by computing the average (mean) price of a
security over a specified number of periods. While it is possible to create moving
averages from the open, the high, and the low data points, most moving averages are
created using the closing price. For example: a 5-day simple moving average is
calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 5 days and dividing the total by 5.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

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A type of moving average that is similar to a simple moving average, except that more
weight is given to the latest data. The exponential moving average is also known as
exponentially weighted moving average.
This type of moving average reacts faster to recent price changes than a simple
moving average. The 12- and 26-day EMAs are the most popular short-term averages,
and they are used to create indicators like the moving average convergence
divergence (MACD) and the percentage price oscillator (PPO). In general, the 50- and
200-day EMAs are used as signals of long-term trends.
Support and Resistance
Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand
meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and
demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is
synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably
throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices go up and as supply
increases, price decline. WhenSupply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as
bulls and bears slug it out for control.
What is Support?
Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent
the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards
support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less
inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that
demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.
What is Resistance?
Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent
the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards
resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to
buy. By the time, the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will
overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.
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Relative strength Index (RSI)


The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an extremely useful and popular momentum
oscillator. The RSI compares the magnitude of a stocks recent gains to the magnitude
of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100.
It takes a single parameter, the number of time periods to use in the calculation.
Trend lines
In the preceding section, we saw how support and resistance levels can be penetrated
by a change in investor expectations (which results in shifts of the supply/demand
lines). This type of a change is often abrupt and news based. In this section, we will
review trends. A trend represents a consistent change in prices (i.e., a change in
investor expectations). Trends differ from support/resistance levels in that trends
represent change, where as support/resistance levels represent barriers to change.
As shown in the following chart, a rising trend is defined by successively higher lowprices. A rising trend can be thought of as a rising support level, the bulls are in
control and are pushing prices higher.

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As shown in the next chart, a falling trend is defined by successively lower highprices. A falling trend can be thought of as a falling resistance level; the bears are in
control and are pushing prices lower.

RATE OF CHANGE (ROC)


The Rate-of-Change (ROC) indicator, which is also referred to as simply Momentum,
is a

pure momentum oscillator that measures the percent change in price from

one period to the next.

The ROC calculation compares the current price with the

price "n" periods ago. The plot forms an oscillator that fluctuates above and below the
zero line as the Rate-of-Change moves from positive to negative. As a momentum
oscillator, ROC signals include centerline crossovers, divergences and overboughtoversold readings. Divergences fail to foreshadow reversals more often than not so
this article will forgo a discussion on divergences. Even though centerline crossovers
are prone to whipsaw, especially short-term, these crossovers can be used to identify
the overall trend. Identifying overbought or oversold extremes comes natural to the
Rate-of-Change oscillator.
STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR
A technical momentum indicator that compares a security's closing price to its price
range over a given time period. The oscillator's sensitivity to market movements can
be reduced by adjusting the time period or by taking a moving average of the result.

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CHARTS
Price in a chart can be displayed in four styles:
1.
2.
3.
4.

Bar Chart
Line Chart
Candlestick Chart
Point and Figure Charts

BAR CHART
The highs and lows of a foreign currency are plotted in a diagram and the points are
joined with vertical lines (bars). A small horizontal tick to the left denotes the opening
level while a small horizontal tick to the right represents the closing price of each
interval.

The advantage of using a bar chart over a straight-line graph is that it shows the high,
low,

open and close for each particular day.

LINE CHART

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It gives the detailed information about every aspect. The exchange rates for each time
period are plotted in a diagram and the points are joined. Prices on the y-axis, time on
the x-axis. The line chart chooses for example the closing price of consecutive time
periods, but can also work with daily, officials fixings.

CANDLE STICK CHART


A candle stick is black if the closing price is lower than the opening price. A candle
stick is white if the closing price is higher than the opening price.

In the 1600s, the Japanese developed a method of technical analysis to analyze the
price of rice contracts. This technique is called candlestick charting. Steven Nison is
credited with popularizing candlestick charting and has become recognized as the
leading expert on their interpretation. Candlestick charts display the open, high, low,
and closing prices in a format similar to a modern day bar chart, but in a manner that
extenuates the relationship between the opening and closing prices. Candlestick charts
are simply a new way of looking at prices, they dont involve any calculations,
because candlesticks display the relationship between the open, high, low and closing
prices, they cannot be displayed on securities that only have closing prices, nor were
they intended to be displayed on securities that lack opening prices.
POINT AND FIGURE CHART
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The point and figure chart is not well known or used by the average investor but it has
had a long history of use dating back to the first technical traders. This type of chart
reflects price movements and is not as concerned about time and volume in the
formulation of the points. The point and figure chart removes the noise, or
insignificant price movements, in the stock, which can distort traders' views of the
price trends. These types of charts also try to neutralize the skewing effect that time
has on chart analysis.

When first looking at a point and figure chart, you will notice a series of Xs and Os.
The Xs represent upward price trends and the Os represent downward price trends.
There are also numbers and letters in the chart; these represent months, and give
investors an idea of the date. Each box on the chart represents the price scale, which
adjusts depending on the price of the stock: the higher the stock's price the more each
box represents. On most charts where the price is between $20 and $100, a box
represents $1, or 1 point for the stock. The other critical point of a point and figure
chart is the reversal criteria. This is usually set at three but it can also be set according
to the chartist's discretion. When the price trend has moved from one trend to another,
it shifts to the right, signaling a trend change.
POPULAR CHARTING PATTERNS
Technical analysts often use proven successful price patterns from great stocks as
tools to find new great stocks. Lets look at a few examples.
Head and Shoulders
This is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. Head
and shoulders is a reversal chart pattern that when formed, signals that the security is
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likely to move against the previous trend. As you can see in Figure 1, there are two
versions of the head and shoulders chart pattern. Head and shoulders top (shown on
the left) is a chart pattern that is formed at the high of an upward movement and
signals that the upward trend is about to end. Head and shoulders bottom, also known
as inverse head and shoulders (shown on the right) is the lesser known of the two, but
is used to signal a reversal in a downtrend.

Both of these head and shoulders patterns are similar in that there are four main
parts: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. Also, each individual head and
shoulder is comprised of a high and a low. For example, in the head and shoulders
top image shown on the left side in figure, the left shoulder is made up of a high
followed by a low. In this pattern, the neckline is a level of support or resistance.
Remember that an upward trend is a period of successive rising highs and rising
lows. The head and shoulders chart pattern, therefore, illustrates a weakening in a
trend by showing the deterioration in the successive movements of the highs and
lows.
Double Tops And Bottom
This chart pattern is another well-known pattern that signals a trend reversal - it is
considered to be one of the most reliable and is commonly used. These patterns
are formed after a sustained trend and signal to chartists that the trend is about to
reverse. The pattern is created when a price movement tests support or resistance
levels twice and is unable to break through. This pattern is often used to signal
intermediate and long-term trend reversals.

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In the case of the double top pattern in figure, the price movement has twice tried
to move above a certain price level. After two unsuccessful attempts at pushing
the price higher, the trend reverses and the price heads lower. In the case of
a double bottom (shown on the right), the price movement has tried to go lower
twice, but has found support each time. After the second bounce off of the
support, the security enters a new trend and heads upward.
Flag and Pennant
These two short-term chart patterns are continuation patterns that are formed
when there is a sharp price movement followed by a generally sideways price
movement. This pattern is then completed upon another sharp price movement in
the same direction as the move that started the trend. The patterns are generally
thought to last from one to three weeks.

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Triangles
Triangles are some of the most well-known chart patterns used in technical
analysis. The three types of triangles, which vary in construct and implication, are
the symmetrical triangle, ascending and descending triangle. These chart patterns
are considered to last anywhere from a couple of weeks to several months.

INTRODUCTION TO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:


Fundamental analysis involves examining the economic, financial and other
qualitative and quantitative factors related to a security in order to determine its
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intrinsic value. It attempts to study everything that can affect the securitys value,
including macroeconomic factors (like the overall economy and industry conditions)
and individually specific factors (like the financial condition and management of
companies).
Fundamental analysis, which is also known as quantitative analysis, involves delving
into a companys financial statements (such as profit and loss account and balance
sheet) in order to study various financial indicators (such as revenues, earnings,
liabilities, expenses and assets). Such analysis is usually carried out by analysts,
brokers and savvy investors.
Fundamental analysis is carried out with the aim of predicting the future performance
of a company. It is based on the theory that the market price of a security tends to
move towards its real value and intrinsic value. Thus, the intrinsic value of a
security being higher than the securitys market value represents a time to buy. If the
value of a security is lower than its market price, investors should sell it.
To forecast future stock prices, fundamental analysis combines economic, industry,
and company analysis to derive a stocks current fair value and forecast future value.

1) ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The level of economic activity has an impact on investment in many ways. If the
economic grows rapidly, the industry can also be expected to show rapid growth and
vice versa. When the level of economic activity is low, stock prices are low, and when
the level of economic activity is high, stock prices are reflecting the prosperous
outlook for sales and profits of the firms. The analysis of macroeconomics
environment is essential to understand the behavior of the stock prices. The
commonly analyzed macroeconomic factors are as follow:a) Gross Domestic product (GDP):
GDP indicates the rate of growth of the economy. GDP represents the aggregate
value of the goods and services produced in the economy. GDP consists of
personal consumption expenditure, gross private domestic investment and
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government expenditure on goods and services and net export of goods and
services.
b) Savings and investment:
It is obvious that growth requires investment which in turn requires substantial
amount of domestic savings. Stock is a channel through which the savings of the
investors are made available to the corporate bodies. Savings are distributed over
various assets like equity shares, deposits, mutual fund units, real estate and
bullion.
c) Inflation:
Along with the growth of GDP, if the inflation rate also increases, then the real
rate of growth would be very little. The demand in the consumer product
industry is significantly affected. The industries which come under the
government price control policy may lose the market, for example Sugar. The
government control over this industry, affects the price of the sugar and thereby
the profitability of the industry itself. If there is a mild level of inflation, it is
good to the stock market but high rate of inflation is harmful to the stock market.
d) Interest rates:
The interest rate affects the cost of financing to the firms. A decrease in interest
rate implies lower cost of finance for firms and more profitability. More money
is available at lower interest rate for the brokers who are doing business with
borrowed money. Available of cheap fund, encourages speculation and rise in the
price of shares.
e) The tax structure:
Every year in March, the business community eagerly awaits the governments
announcement regarding the tax policy. Concessions and incentives given to a
certain industry encourage investment in that particular industry. Tax reliefs
given to savings encourage savings. The type of tax exemption has impact on the
profitability of the industries.
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f) The balance of payment:
The balance of payment is the record of a countrys money receipts from and
payments abroad. The difference between receipts and payments may be surplus
or deficit. Balance of payment is a measure of the strength of rupee on external
account. If the deficit increases, the rupee may depreciate against other
currencies, thereby, affecting the cost of imports. The industries involved in the
export and import are considerably affected by the changes in foreign exchange
rate. The volatility of the foreign exchange rate affects the investment of the
foreign institutional investors in the Indian stock market.
g) Demographic factors:
The demographic data provides details about the population by age, occupation,
literacy and geographic location. This is needed to forecast the demand for the
consumer goods. The population by age indicates the availability of able work
force. The cheap labor force in India has encouraged many multinationals to start
their ventures. Indian labor is cheaper compared to the Western labor force.
Population, by providing labor and demand for products, affects the industry and
stock market.
2) INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
An industry is a group of firms that have similar technological structure of production
and produce similar products. The stock prices are depend on the types of the industry
and industry life cycle. It depends whether the industry is defensive, aggressive or
cyclic. Some of the industry factors that have to be analyzed are as follows:a) Growth of the industry:
The historical performance of the industry in terms of growth and profitability
should be

analyzed. Industry wise growth is published periodically by the

Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. The past variability in return and growth
in reaction to macro economic factors provide an insight into the future. Even

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though history may not repeat in the exact manner, looking into the past growth
of the industry, the analyst can predict the future.
b) Cost structure and profitability:
The cost structure, that is the fixed and variable cost, affects the cost of
production and profitability of the firm. In the case of oil and natural gas industry
and iron and steel industry the fixed cost portion is high and the gestation period
is also lengthy. Higher the fixed cost component, greater sales volume is required
to reach the firms breakeven point. Once the breakeven point is reached and the
production is on the track, the profitability can be increased by utilizing the
capacity to full. Once the maximum capacity is reached, again capital has to be
invested in the fixed equipment. Hence, lower the fixed cost, adjustability to the
changing demand and reaching the breakeven points are comparatively easier.
c) Nature of the product:
The products produced by the industries are demanded by the consumers and
other industries. If industrial goods like pig iron, iron sheet and coils are
produced, the demand for them depends on the construction industry. Likewise,
textile machine tools industry produces tools for the textile industry and the
entire demand depends upon the health of the textile industry. Several such
examples can be cited. The investor has to analyze the condition of related goods
producing industry and the end user industry to find out the demand for industrial
goods.
d) Government policy:
The government policies affect the very nerve of the industry and the effects
differ from industry to industry. Tax subsidies and tax holidays are provided for
export oriented products. Government regulates the size of the production and the
pricing of certain products. The sugar, fertilizer and pharmaceutical industries are
often affected by the inconsistent government policies. Control and decontrol of
sugar price affect the profitability of the sugar industry. In some cases entry
barriers are placed by the government.
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e) Labour:
The analysis of labour scenario in a particular industry is of great importance.
The number of trade unions and their operating mode has impact on the labour
productivity and modernization of the industry. Skilled labour is needed for
certain industries. In the case of Indian labour market, even in computer
technology or in any other industry skilled and well qualified labour is available
at a cheaper rate. This is one of the many reasons attracting the multinationals to
set up companies in India.
f) Research and development:
For any industry to survive the competition in the national and international
markets, product and production process have to be technically competitive. This
depends on the

R & D in the particular company or industry. Economies of

scale and new market can be obtained only through R & D. The percentage of
expenditure made on R & D should be studied diligently before making an
investment.

3) COMPANY ANALYSIS
In the company analysis the investor have to invest several bits of information related
to the company and evaluate the present and future values of the stock. The risk and
return associated with the purchase of the stock is to be analyzed to take better
investment decisions. The valuation process depends upon the investors ability to
elicit information from the relationship and inter-relationship among the company
related variable. The present and future values are affected by a number of factors
like:a) The competitive edge of the company:
Major industries in India are composed of hundreds of individual companies. In
the information technology industry even though the number of companies is
large, few companies like Tata Infotech, Infosys, NIIT etc., control the major

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market share. The competitiveness of the company can be studied with the help
of the market share, the growth of annual sales, and the stability of annual sales.
b) Earnings of the company:
Sales alone do not increase the earnings but the costs and expenses of the
company also influence the earnings of the company. Further, earnings do not
always increase with the increase in sales. The companys sales might have
increased but its earnings per share may decline due to the rise in costs. The rate
of change in earnings differs from the rate of sales.
c) Capital structure:
The equity holders return can be increased manifold with the help of financial
leverage, i.e. using debt financing along with equity financing. The effect of
financial leverage is measured by computing leverage ratios. The debt ratio
indicates the position of the long term and short term debts in the company
finance. The debt may be in the form of debentures and term loans from financial
institutions.
d) Management:
Good and capable management generates profit to the investors. The
management of the firm should efficiently plan, organize, actuate and control the
activities of the company. The basic objective of management is to attain the
stated objectives of company for the good of the equity holders, the public and
the employees. If the objectives of the company are achieved, investors will have
a profit. A management that ignores profit does more harm to the investors than
one that over emphasizes it.
e) Operating efficiency:
The operating efficiency of a company directly affects the earnings of a company.
An expanding company that maintains high operating efficiency with a low
breakeven point earns more than the company with high breakeven point. If a
firm has stable operating ratio, the revenues also would be stable. Efficient use of
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fixed assets with raw materials, labour, and management would lead to more
income from sales. This leads to internal fund generation for the expansion of the
firm. A growing company should have low operating ratio to meet the growing
demand for its product.
f) Financial analysis:
The best source of financial information about a company is its own financial
statements. This is a primary source of information for evaluating the investment
prospects in the particular companys stock. Financial statement analysis is the
study of a companys financial statement from various viewpoints. The statement
gives the historical and current information about the companys operations.
Historical financial statements help to predict the future. The current information
aids to analyze the present status of the company. The two main statements used
in the analysis are balance sheet and profit and loss account.

Financial ratios are tools for interpreting financial statements to provide a basis for
valuing securities and appraising financial and management performance.
A good financial analyst will build in financial ratio calculations extensively in a
financial modeling exercise to enable robust analysis. Financial ratios allow a
financial analyst to:
Standardize information from financial statements across multiple financial years to
allow comparison of a firms performance over time in a financial model.
In general, there are 4 kinds of financial ratios that a financial analyst will use most
frequently, these are:

Performance ratios

Working capital ratios

Liquidity ratios

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Solvency ratios

These 4 financial ratios allow a good financial analyst to quickly and efficiently
address the following questions or concerns:
Performance ratios
What return is the company making on its capital investment?
What are its profit margins?
Working capital ratios
How quickly are debts paid?
How many times is inventory turned?
Liquidity ratios
Can the company continue to pay its liabilities and debts?
Solvency ratios (Longer term)
What is the level of debt in relation to other assets and to equity?
Is the level of interest payable out of profits?

Reason for selecting Fundamental analysis:

Long Term Trends:

Fundamental analysis is good for long-term investments based on long-term trends,


very long-term. The ability to identify and predict long-term economic, demographic,
technological or consumer trends can benefit patient investors who pick the right
industry groups or companies.

Value Spotting:

Sound fundamental analysis will help identify companies that represent a good value.
Some of the most legendary investors think long-term and value. Graham and Dodd,
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Warren Buffett and John Neff are seen as the champions of value investing.
Fundamental analysis can help uncover companies with valuable assets, a strong
balance sheet, stable earnings, and staying power.

Business Insights:

A good understanding can help investors avoid companies that are prone to shortfalls
and identify those that continue to deliver. In addition to understanding the business,
fundamental analysis allows investors to develop an understanding of the key value
drivers and companies within an industry. A stock's price is heavily influenced by its
industry group. By studying these groups, investors can better position themselves to
identify opportunities that are high-risk (tech), low-risk (utilities), growth oriented
(computer),

value

driven

(oil),

non-cyclical

(consumer

staples),

cyclical

(transportation) or income-oriented (high yield).

Knowing Whos who:

Stocks move as a group. By understanding a company's business, investors can better


position themselves to categorize stocks within their relevant industry group. Business
can change rapidly and with it the revenue mix of a company. This has happened with
many of the pure internet retailers, which were not really internet companies, but
plain retailers. Knowing a company's business and being able to place it in a group
can make a huge difference in relative valuations. The charts of the technical analyst
may give all kinds of profit alerts, signals and alarms, but there is little in the charts
that tell us why a group of people make the choices that create the price patterns.

CHAPTER 4

Table 1.1 Hindustan Unilever


Date
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09

Close

MACD

EMA (9 months)

261.65
253.5
237.5
234.75
230.8
267.5
291.5

Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil

nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil

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ROC (14
months)
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil

RSI (14 months)


Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil

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Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10

259.95
262.6
283.5
285.2
264.8
242.3
236.2

Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil

nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil

Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10

239.55
239.8
237.2
267.55
251.45
264.5

Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil

nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil

Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13

309.05
294.7
298.25
312.9
271.15
282
287.1
285.2
304.55
343.65
324
320.4
340.6
375.8
397.15
407.4
378.95
380.2
410.05
417.6
428
454.5
467.35
515.1
545.85
546.6
538.1
524.85
473.95
443.05
466.95
583.8
592.5
585.15
612.55
631.45
627.45
609.85
594.75

Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
13.21646924
12.97727104
12.49040896
13.51021321
17.27433092
18.45904615
18.88970286
20.6232407
24.55438014
29.0576446
33.07236582
33.57139395
33.67950551
35.76159286
37.58759756
39.41950896
42.51950211
45.48879018
51.10588151
57.37732478
61.69680513
63.69985321
63.48628856
58.5350765
51.52389809
47.35019537
52.86196451
57.27190371
59.48798822
62.73206596
66.06651928
67.60699958
66.63948985
63.91748662

nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
16.88834036
19.32220121
22.07223413
24.37206609
26.23355398
28.13916175
30.02884891
31.90698092
34.02948516
36.32134616
39.27825323
42.89806754
46.65781506
50.06622269
52.75023586
53.90720399
53.43054281
52.21447332
52.34397156
53.32955799
54.56124403
56.19540842
58.16963059
60.05710439
61.37358148
61.88236251

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 40

nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
9.726734187
-5.50295858
0.968421053
1.043663472
15.92287695
-6
9.262435678
18.88824774
12.2239147
5.202821869
9.712482468
2.398036254
16.38464713
21.54953429
19.05656439
27.00166806
44.8777403
21.09886003
27.42095844
28.77126654
21.59844685
34.76416695
36.59681475
21.1089805
40.21759174
45.40780142
45.45454545
50.07012623
49.23657856
35.99592609
58.98148148
70.36516854
60.48150323
43.18786589
32.15409795
16.33529701
16.91516031
22.81693845
42.37288136
41.88218391
36.71728972
34.77447745
35.11287044
21.81129878
11.72483283
8.809001098

Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
44.49427005
44.56862895
43.90979712
52.69961722
48.3693464
51.82476569
61.33749254
57.40540776
58.12065772
61.02895866
50.30705453
52.63591287
53.73350271
53.23852569
57.52935098
64.59833223
59.26006245
58.30936538
61.99377833
67.40031524
70.17191051
71.42785356
63.44292889
63.63528053
67.96946768
68.97663948
70.3592494
73.58915841
75.01112605
79.44077362
81.69154144
81.74403783
78.98004186
74.73772753
61.14944441
54.65315563
58.33969875
70.82700502
71.51168609
70.01661722
72.33833983
73.84291853
72.93869146
68.9386126
65.61389059

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Dec-13

570.65

59.13395147

61.3326803

6.049061513

60.59129925

Fig-1.1.1Rate of Change of HUL

ROC (14 mnths)


80
60

ROC (14 mnths)

40
20
0
-20

Interpretation:
In ROC, the overbought zone is above the zero line and oversold is below the zero
line. Many analysts use the zero line for identifying buying and selling opportunities.
Upside crossing indicates a buying opportunity, while a downside crossing indicates
selling opportunity.
Generally when the ROC values are positive selling decision can be made. Also, when
the ROC values are negative buying decision can be made.
The indicator gives selling signal.
Fig 1.1.2 Relative Strength Index of HUL

RSI (14 mnths)


100
80
60
40
20
0

Interpretation:
BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 41

RSI (14 mnths)

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
When the RSI value crosses 70, the prices were high. It indicates an overbought
condition. There was a high selling pressure at this point and started falling. At this
point, investors can make decision to sell.
When the RSI value crosses 35, the prices were low. It indicates an oversold
condition. There was a high buying pressure at this point and started rising. At this
point, investors can make decision to buy.
The indicator gives selling signal.

Fig 1.1.3 MACD of HUL


80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

MACD
EMA (9 mnths)

Interpretation:
When the lines are below the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from below to above, it indicates a buying opportunity. At this point, prices were low
and the investor can make buying decision.
When the lines are above the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from above to below, it indicates a selling opportunity. At this point, prices were high
and the investor can make selling decision.
Date

Close

MACD

EMA (9 months)

ROC (14 months)

RSI (14 months)

Jan-10

2533

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Feb-10

2626.9

nil

nil

nil

Nil

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 42

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Mar-10

2670.6

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Apr-10

2763.1

nil

nil

nil

Nil

May-10

2879.2

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Jun-10

2879.55

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Jul-10

3020.65

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Aug-10

3078.8

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Sep-10

3382.15

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Oct-10

3484.45

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Nov-10

3625.35

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Dec-10

3813.75

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Jan-11

3327.55

nil

nil

nil

Nil

Feb-11

3548.7

nil

nil

40.0986972

Nil

Mar-11

3696.55

nil

nil

40.71909856

77.23729488

Apr-11

3992.9

nil

nil

49.513218

80.19629499

May-11

4059.3

nil

nil

46.91107814

80.79858031

Jun-11

4108.1

nil

nil

42.681995

81.24991174

Jul-11

4360.1

nil

nil

51.41601986

83.41750376

Aug-11

4389.1

nil

nil

45.30316323

83.65172608

Sep-11

4252.1

nil

nil

38.10900351

78.04353802

Oct-11

4243.85

nil

nil

25.4778765

77.70569219

Nov-11

4222.55

nil

nil

21.18268306

76.78152892

Dec-11

4094.85

nil

nil

12.95047375

71.30609548

Jan-12

4236

nil

nil

11.07177974

73.55122776

Feb-12

4413.2

484.0319825

nil

32.62610629

76.08142883

Mar-12

4630.6

491.4646032

nil

30.48722067

78.7653795

Apr-12

4674.15

495.1612194

nil

26.44628099

79.26727013

May-12

4505.2

478.9370729

nil

12.83027374

72.14340123

Jun-12

4539.05

463.4681595

nil

11.81854014

72.67330175

Jul-12

4478.65

441.2487185

nil

9.019984908

70.11051565

Aug-12

4635.3

431.3081454

nil

6.31178184

72.79052199

Sep-12

4401.95

399.9899397

nil

0.292770727

63.63698237

Oct-12

4700.1

394.6786397

453.3653868

10.53597046

69.00082534

Nov-12

4767.4

391.3882634

440.9699621

12.33667542

70.07390299

Dec-12

4992.3

402.2908089

433.2341314

18.22950587

73.38903427

Jan-13

4745.55

386.564418

423.9001888

15.89069197

64.89499535

Feb-13

4761.8

371.1341753

413.3469861

12.41265345

65.18080879

Mar-13

4588.2

340.9670715

398.8710031

3.965376597

59.59831057

Apr-13

4981.35

344.8086047

388.0585235

7.574612361

66.57930867

May-13

5302.25

369.4877706

384.3443729

13.43773734

70.98608007

Jun-13

4854

348.8547778

377.2464539

7.74216461

59.23633287

Jul-13

5293.5

363.7736036

374.5518838

16.62131944

65.30086429

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 43

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Aug-13

4896.7

339.663013

367.5741097

9.334286001

57.04871066

Sep-13

5219.55

342.6565615

362.5906

12.60436218

61.33054834

Oct-13

5596.95

371.2029991

364.3130798

27.14705983

65.64238933

Nov-13

5145.05

353.2892052

362.1083049

9.466819855

57.39039259

Dec-13

5289.25

346.7312276

359.0328895

10.94621806

59.15489512

The indicator gives selling signal.

Table 1.2 Nestle India

Fig 1.2.1 Rate of Change of Nestle India

ROC (14 months)


60
40

ROC (14 months)

20
0

Interpretation:
In ROC, the overbought zone is above the zero line and oversold is below the zero
line. Many analysts use the zero line for identifying buying and selling opportunities.
Upside crossing indicates a buying opportunity, while a downside crossing indicates
selling opportunity.
Generally when the ROC values are positive selling decision can be made. Also, when
the ROC values are negative buying decision can be made.
The indicator gives selling signal.
Fig 1.2.2 Relative Strength Index of Nestle India

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 44

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis

RSI (14 months)


100
80
60

RSI (14 months)

40
20
0

Interpretation:
When the RSI value crosses 70, the prices were high. It indicates an overbought
condition. There was a high selling pressure at this point and started falling. At this
point, investors can make decision to sell.
When the RSI value crosses 35, the prices were low. It indicates an oversold
condition. There was a high buying pressure at this point and started rising. At this
point, investors can make decision to buy.
The indicator gives selling signal.
Fig 1.2.3 MACD of Nestle India
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Interpretation:

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 45

MACD
EMA (9 months)

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
When the lines are below the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from below to above, it indicates a buying opportunity. At this point, prices were low
and the investor can make buying decision.
When the lines are above the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from above to below, it indicates a selling opportunity. At this point, prices were high
and the investor can make selling decision.
The indicator gives selling signal.

Table 1.3 Glaxosmithkline


Date
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10

Close
2998.3
2495.7
2431.35
2468.05
2350.9
2368.15
2334.4
2498.05
2262.3
2205.25
2110.95
2048.8
2168.05
2050.1
2005
1981.05
2099.95
2109.95
2019.3
2010
2144.05
2316.55
2074.85
1940.05
1945.15
1917.1
2057.6
2091
2119.6
2344.9
2350.15
2321.5
2257.65
2062.95
2208.55
2284.65
2337.5
2130.6

MACD

EMA(9 months)

Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
-141.1837652
-131.293232
-119.3836321
-106.4107702
-77.06153922
-52.77012986
-35.42249996
-26.52082412
-34.77596898
-29.23255291
-18.48563089
-5.639060862
-12.01466485

nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
2169.161111
1729.482378
1379.888776
1102.783209
879.8236342

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 46

ROC (14
months)
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
-31.62458727
-19.66181833
-18.52057499
-14.9146087
-10.24926624
-14.73090809
-13.89650446
-14.17105342
2.398002033
-5.913161773
-8.095881001
-5.059058961
-11.57491755
0.365835813
4.289276808
6.993765932
11.66456344
11.38415602
14.96558213
12.32089552
-3.782561041
-4.662105286
10.11157433
20.4865854
9.533969103

RSI (14 Months)


Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
20.20695861
19.89907436
25.93264472
26.4345406
24.79435818
24.62554511
31.83020872
39.80398798
33.83254667
31.03603438
31.26751204
30.65800585
37.25563179
38.74763263
40.06195275
49.29255158
49.48776366
48.39288389
45.95281716
39.42482395
45.64351556
48.61289988
50.629981
43.44097282

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09

2222.45
2209.95
1860.7
2010.8
2183.95
2107.95
1912.95
1778
1709.9
1520.45
1611.95
1664.1
1564.95
1552.05
1433
1368.15
1199.7
1169.05
1172.45
1092.45
1200.25
1165.2

-9.545811391
-8.499891317
-35.44397227
-44.17629812
-36.70189474
-36.49030356
-51.46423863
-73.37470925
-95.137332
-126.2164543
-141.8286845
-148.2840936
-159.5613048
-167.607424
-181.4981735
-195.4861035
-217.6551529
-234.9886799
-245.6199198
-257.5319178
-255.3304129
-253.4918502

701.9497451
559.8598178
440.7990598
343.8039882
267.7028116
206.8641886
155.1985031
109.4838607
68.55962213
29.60440685
-4.682211432
-33.40258787
-58.63433125
-80.42894979
-100.6427945
-119.6114563
-139.2201957
-158.3738925
-175.823098
-192.1648619
-204.7979721
-214.5367477

15.9277033
7.404257387
-11.01386896
-5.133043971
-6.863832146
-10.30572517
-17.59853543
-21.24554293
-17.11384183
-31.15618845
-29.44433502
-28.80855615
-26.54885948
-30.1649081
-35.156904
-26.47122051
-40.33717923
-46.47084411
-44.37961052
-42.89186858
-32.4943757
-31.85566407

47.03633462
46.60216216
36.47230911
42.27937877
48.16562371
45.95061985
40.76997897
37.60977032
36.0895194
32.19114779
35.79826355
37.82821171
35.52817801
35.22806224
32.49959813
31.08714019
27.71740466
27.1409252
27.32150548
25.70701995
31.5746163
30.72493251

Fig 1.3.1 Rate of Change of Glaxosmithkline

ROC (14 months)


30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50

ROC (14 months)

Interpretation:
In ROC, the overbought zone is above the zero line and oversold is below the zero
line. Many analysts use the zero line for identifying buying and selling opportunities.
Upside crossing indicates a buying opportunity, while a downside crossing indicates
selling opportunity.
Generally when the ROC values are positive selling decision can be made. Also, when
the ROC values are negative buying decision can be made.
BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 47

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
The indicator gives buying signal.
Fig 1.3.2 Relative Strength Index of Glaxosmithkline

RSI (14 Months)


60
50
40
30
20
10
0

RSI (14 Months)

Interpretation:
When the RSI value crosses 70, the prices were high. It indicates an overbought
condition. There was a high selling pressure at this point and started falling. At this
point, investors can make decision to sell.
When the RSI value crosses 35, the prices were low. It indicates an oversold
condition. There was a high buying pressure at this point and started rising. At this
point, investors can make decision to buy.
The indicator gives buying signal.
Fig 1.3.3 MACD of Glaxosmithkline
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500

Interpretation:

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 48

MACD
EMA(9 months)

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
When the lines are below the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from below to above, it indicates a buying opportunity. At this point, prices were low
and the investor can make buying decision.
When the lines are above the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from above to below, it indicates a selling opportunity. At this point, prices were high
and the investor can make selling decision.
The indicator gives buying signal.

Table 1.4 Wockhardt Limited


Date

Close

Jan-09

103.35

Feb-09

80.35

Mar-09

85.35

Apr-09

89.3

May-09

120.85

Jun-09

136.25

Jul-09

141.75

Aug-09

161.45

Sep-09

194.15

Oct-09

171.2

Nov-09

175.75

Dec-09

172.6

Jan-10

171.35

Feb-10

141.7

Mar-10

138.7

Apr-10

134.1

May-10

122.55

Jun-10

134.45

Jul-10

138.05

Aug-10

219.55

Sep-10

293.85

Oct-10

296.3

Nov-10

MACD

EMA (9
Months)

ROC (14
Months)

RSI (14
Months)

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nil

nil

65.79583938

Nil

nil

76.35345364

4.377880184

Nil

nil

62.50732279

4.157549234

Nil

nil

50.16797312

3.659530336

Nil

nil

1.406702524

3.659530336

Nil

nil

-1.321100917

3.659530336

Nil

nil

-2.610229277

16.52649477

Nil

nil

35.98637349

20.00713255

Nil

nil

51.35204739

60.33279775

368.9

Nil

nil

73.07242991

73.46556016

Dec-10

366.05

Nil

nil

109.9004267

72.78997132

Jan-11

371.45

Nil

nil

112.0799537

80.078704

Feb-11

345.05

86.6026943

nil

116.7785235

72.47598183

Mar-11

323.5

3.942366705

nil

143.50741

67.52000943

Apr-11

342.6

4.859495474

nil

133.2372026

67.52000943

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 49

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
May-11

351.25

4.801909276

nil

155.4809843

67.52000943

Jun-11

366.45

5.275689615

nil

186.6177071

70.02743507

Jul-11

449.1

11.05720745

nil

172.5548531

71.1149922

Aug-11

386.45

4.358377816

nil

225.3169142

57.69206502

Sep-11

383.25

3.432587496

nil

76.01913004

66.79910131

Oct-11

443.55

7.714753523

14.67167574

30.42368555

66.79910131

Nov-11

412.25

4.031002268

12.54354105

49.6962538

60.73683845

Dec-11

276.45

-7.42220036

8.550392764

11.75115207

49.34836066

Jan-12

378.45

1.856428755

7.211599963

-24.47753039

49.34836066

Feb-12

482.65

9.883075044

7.745894979

1.884506663

49.34836066

Mar-12

598.65

17.61616321

9.719948626

39.87827851

59.37211293

Apr-12

728.85

25.29230904

12.83442071

85.05409583

66.63597361

May-12

796.45

26.79377717

15.626292

112.7408056

72.52513873

Jun-12

934.4

33.67621601

19.2362768

126.747331

77.35638078

Jul-12

975.75

31.7938352

21.74778848

154.9870378

79.38341216

Aug-12

1229.65

47.15660699

26.82955218

117.2678691

82.77258969

Sep-12

1294.9

45.10687258

30.48501626

218.1912278

83.64071106

Oct-12

1499.4

54.48074404

35.28416182

237.8734508

87.72949919

Nov-12

1602.15

54.2956723

39.08646392

238.0453162

88.52336526

Dec-12

1572.75

43.5971928

39.98860969

288.6355367

88.3049667

Jan-13

1743.15

50.48309477

42.08750671

468.9093869

89.31514568

Feb-13

1944.5

58.77857306

45.42571998

360.6024574

89.31514568

Mar-13

2005.3

54.58585812

47.25774761

302.8799337

90.83735643

Apr-13

1906.35

38.2945865

45.46511539

234.97035

85.77449905

May-13

1223.3

-22.08520743

31.95505082

161.5558757

57.67189013

Jun-13

1000.85

-36.43278236

18.27748419

53.5940737

51.64814175

Jul-13

468.4

-73.30238279

-0.03848921

7.111515411

40.69229545

Aug-13

469.45

-61.94133245

-12.41905786

-51.99590059

40.69229545

Sep-13

523.5

-48.10021578

-19.55528944

-61.82246981

40.69229545

Oct-13

444.55

-46.99818828

-25.04386921

-59.57216773

39.1847262

Nov-13

425.4

-41.2953331

-28.29416199

-70.35147392

40.44447019

Fig 1.4.1 Rate of Change of Wockhardt Limited

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 50

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis

ROC (14 MONTHS)


600
400

ROC (14 MONTHS)

200
0
-200

Interpretation:
In ROC, the overbought zone is above the zero line and oversold is below the zero
line. Many analysts use the zero line for identifying buying and selling opportunities.
Upside crossing indicates a buying opportunity, while a downside crossing indicates
selling opportunity.
Generally when the ROC values are positive selling decision can be made. Also, when
the ROC values are negative buying decision can be made.
The indicator gives buying signal.
Fig 1.4.2 Relative Strength Index of Wockhardt Limited

RSI (14 Months)


100
80
60
40
20
0

RSI (14 Months)

Interpretation:
When the RSI value crosses 70, the prices were high. It indicates an overbought
condition. There was a high selling pressure at this point and started falling. At this
point, investors can make decision to sell.

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 51

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
When the RSI value crosses 35, the prices were low. It indicates an oversold
condition. There was a high buying pressure at this point and started rising. At this
point, investors can make decision to buy.
The RSI line of Wockhardt is oscillating between 40 to 50 which indicate that the
investor should buy their stocks.
The indicator gives buying signal.
Fig 1.4.3 MACD of Wockhardt India
100
50
MACD

EMA (9 Months)

-50
-100

Interpretation:
When the lines are below the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from below to above, it indicates a buying opportunity. At this point, prices were low
and the investor can make buying decision.
When the lines are above the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from above to below, it indicates a selling opportunity. At this point, prices were high
and the investor can make selling decision.
The indicator gives buying signal.

Table 1.5Infosys
Date

Close

MACD

EMA 9 DAY

ROC (14
DAYS)

RSI (14DAYS)

Jan-09

1306.65

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Feb-09

1231.25

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Mar09
Apr-09

1323.9

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

1509.25

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

May09

1605.1

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 52

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Jun-09

1776.5

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Jul-09

2064.35

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Aug09
Sep-09

2131.15

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

2306.4

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Oct-09

2206.2

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Nov09
Dec09
Jan-10

2379.35

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

2601.1

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

2475.5

nil

nil

Nil

Nil

Feb-10

2601.95

nil

nil

99.13136647

Nil

Mar10
Apr-10

2615.95

nil

nil

112.4629442

84.24438981

2738.15

nil

nil

106.8245336

85.25913963

May10
Jun-10

2658

nil

nil

76.11396389

81.54925212

2791

nil

nil

73.88324715

82.8804566

Jul-10

2788.4

nil

nil

56.96031523

82.75475808

Aug10
Sep-10

2713.85

nil

nil

31.46268801

79.0526146

3050.5

nil

nil

43.13868099

82.79558107

Oct-10

2971.7

nil

nil

28.84582033

79.22703114

Nov10
Dec10
Jan-11

3051

nil

nil

38.29208594

80.15404918

3442.75

nil

nil

44.69287831

83.96178029

3117.7

nil

nil

19.86082811

71.67379674

Feb-11

2997.1

2238.64124

nil

21.07049081

67.71411733

Mar11
Apr-11

3241.3

2714.595663

nil

24.57195565

71.18543756

2906.25

2652.983712

nil

11.09730691

61.42681234

May11
Jun-11

2785.65

2531.746742

nil

1.734747914

58.32731116

2910.45

2400.488316

nil

9.497742664

60.54590534

Jul-11

2775.9

2280.822821

nil

-0.541024722

57.02124829

Aug11
Sep-11

2342.95

2161.288499

nil

-15.97511117

47.44929484

2533.05

1971.621172

nil

-6.662122077

51.3138404

Oct-11

2877.55

1823.42151

2308.401075

-5.669562367

57.42429504

Nov11
Dec-11

2606.85

1744.978409

2195.716542

-12.27748427

51.91100138

2767.65

1589.960394

2074.565312

-9.287118977

54.69364174

Jan-12

2746

1479.589166

1955.570083

-20.23818169

54.2385739

Feb-12

2883.45

1363.986462

1837.253359

-7.513551657

56.70167334

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 53

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Mar12
Apr-12

2866.3

1225.529652

1714.908618

-4.364218745

56.29452504

2462.1

1137.200083

1599.366911

-24.03973714

47.61632791

May12
Jun-12

2429.35

1013.534506

1482.20043

-16.40946237

46.98432939

2509.2

862.5747511

1358.275294

-9.924075171

48.76972773

Jul-12

2226.95

777.7878202

1242.177799

-23.48434091

43.22806177

Aug12
Sep-12

2361.65

674.7742582

1128.697091

-14.92308801

46.36057187

2534.95

582.3332108

1019.424315

8.194797157

50.17004491

Oct-12

2363

538.9416427

923.3277806

-6.713250824

46.63132021

Nov12
Dec12
Jan-13

2436.85

530.6303179

844.788288

-15.31511181

48.31740572

2318.7

508.7078442

777.5721993

-11.0535704

45.82312271

2789.5

426.7326193

707.4042833

0.789478438

55.64828902

Feb-13

2907

453.1342135

656.5502693

5.863073562

57.70964668

Mar13
Apr-13

2889.35

473.3854815

619.9173118

0.204615998

57.27899132

2235.45

492.4407538

594.4220002

-22.00921048

44.13759714

May13
Jun-13

2411.7

399.0434768

555.3462955

-2.047033021

47.62553058

2498.85

339.9038986

512.2578161

2.860847552

49.31086618

Jul-13

2969.65

350.1773114

479.8417152

18.35047027

57.30385445

Aug13
Sep-13

3105.85

431.0185712

470.0770864

39.46653495

59.30316509

3013

514.8786245

479.037394

27.58029344

57.33219664

Oct-13

3309.9

616.0429297

506.4385011

30.57062269

61.71401705

Nov13
Dec13

3354.55

734.4721188

552.0452247

41.96148963

62.34038015

3485.65

827.9294109

607.2220619

43.03916942

64.19273194

Fig 1.5.1 Rate of Change of Infosys

ROC (14 DAYS)


150
100
50
0
-50

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 54

ROC (14 DAYS)

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Interpretation:
In ROC, the overbought zone is above the zero line and oversold is below the zero
line. Many analysts use the zero line for identifying buying and selling opportunities.
Upside crossing indicates a buying opportunity, while a downside crossing indicates
selling opportunity.
Generally when the ROC values are positive selling decision can be made. Also, when
the ROC values are negative buying decision can be made.
The indicator gives selling signal.
Fig 1.5.2 Relative Strength Index of Infosys

RSI (14DAYS)
100
80
60
40
20
0

Interpretation:
When the RSI value crosses 70, the prices were high. It indicates an overbought
condition. There was a high selling pressure at this point and started falling. At this
point, investors can make decision to sell.
When the RSI value crosses 35, the prices were low. It indicates an oversold
condition. There was a high buying pressure at this point and started rising. At this
point, investors can make decision to buy.
The RSI line of Infosys is oscillating between 60 and 70 which indicate that the
investor should sell their stocks.
The indicator gives selling signal.
Fig 1.5.3 MACD of Infosys

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 55

RSI (14DAYS)

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
3000
2500
2000
1500

MACD

1000

EMA 9 DAY

500
0

Interpretation:
When the lines are below the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from below to above, it indicates a buying opportunity. At this point, prices were low
and the investor can make buying decision.
When the lines are above the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from above to below, it indicates a selling opportunity. At this point, prices were high
and the investor can make selling decision.
The indicator gives selling signal.

Table 1.6Tata Consultancy Services


Date

Close

MACD

Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10

255.8
241.55
269.28
311.8
352.3
389.85
525.95
527.05
621
628.3
688.4
750.25
736.2
761.8
780.65
765.4
743.05
751
839.8
843.75

nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
nil

EMA (9
Months)
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 56

ROC (14
Months)
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
197.8107897
223.1836059
184.2394534
138.309814
113.1705932
115.4161857
60.42399468

RSI (14 Months)


Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
95.13285751
92.51963692
88.67513777
88.852579
90.6203937
90.69111153

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13

926.95
1052.9
1076
1165.65
1159.5
1110.25
1183.9
1165.65
1157.15
1184.2
1137
1042.4
1037.3
1115.8
1115.55
1160.65
1132.4
1221.95
1168.8
1246.6
1245.35
1277.45
1243.65
1343.75
1295.9
1315.5
1314
1255.85
1344.15
1517
1575.75
1378.4
1498.45
1518.15
1815.5
2033.2
1927.8
2112.05
2004.35
2172.05

nil
nil
nil
nil
nil
250.6827661
250.4895332
246.0277179
239.0501962
233.017093
221.8695951
203.0609333
185.6038799
176.0736657
166.5804931
160.8421899
152.2598476
150.944225
143.9534184
143.0420638
140.5982154
139.6419442
134.6050715
137.1100279
133.6929991
131.0558057
127.3764569
118.4034462
117.0678573
128.475953
140.6364161
132.8181302
134.7557338
136.3096315
159.6939144
193.5614419
209.482024
234.2661606
242.4227787
259.4284164

Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
Nil
222.8750423
211.6161324
201.4613439
191.6210447
183.4856807
175.5792283
169.0717954
163.3770794
158.6300523
153.8250562
150.4820505
147.1242402
143.9105533
140.603734
136.1636765
132.3445126
131.5708007
133.3839238
133.2707651
133.5677588
134.1161334
139.2316896
150.09764
161.9745168
176.4328456
189.6308322
203.590349

Fig 1.6.1 Rate of Change of TCS

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 57

75.87515416
69.54911433
71.25576954
69.32742592
54.54848384
50.80820429
55.40824363
49.31787613
51.18238829
59.37016352
51.39813582
24.12479162
22.93925926
20.37326717
5.950232691
7.867100372
-2.852485738
5.385942216
5.27358703
5.29605541
6.837386866
10.39623212
5.020266847
18.18381706
24.31887951
26.81962788
17.76303997
12.57675586
15.81010641
33.96326386
28.95372151
17.93292266
20.20295203
21.90548842
42.11906533
63.48651148
43.46418605
62.97939656
52.36412011
65.30060883

92.0506377
93.57935714
93.81431073
94.63486486
93.71643834
86.47846428
87.9742354
85.45171488
84.24017089
84.97046368
78.16414175
66.64215545
66.07665679
70.25986634
70.23016407
72.48960223
68.95905587
73.38428848
67.25580112
71.0650082
70.92225106
72.45263961
68.37211244
73.18815975
67.86807402
68.86638571
68.69049378
62.07174749
67.23460533
74.54046289
76.46158995
60.06537142
64.9843237
65.73029492
74.54516988
78.83712873
72.46640289
76.10196726
70.26185263
73.65239153

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis

ROC (14 Months)


300
200

ROC (14 Months)

100
0
-100

Interpretation:
In ROC, the overbought zone is above the zero line and oversold is below the zero
line. Many analysts use the zero line for identifying buying and selling opportunities.
Upside crossing indicates a buying opportunity, while a downside crossing indicates
selling opportunity.
Generally when the ROC values are positive selling decision can be made. Also, when
the ROC values are negative buying decision can be made.
The indicator gives selling signal.
Fig 1.6.2 Relative Strength Index of TCS

RSI (14 Months)


100
50

RSI (14 Months)

Interpretation:
When the RSI value crosses 70, the prices were high. At this point, investors can
make decision to sell.
When the RSI value crosses 35, the prices were low. At this point, investors can make
decision to buy.
The indicator gives selling signal.

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 58

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Fig 1.6.3 MACD of TCS
300
200
100

MACD
EMA (9 Months)

Interpretation:
When the lines are below the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from below to above, it indicates a buying opportunity. At this point, prices were low
and the investor can make buying decision.
When the lines are above the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average line
from above to below, it indicates a selling opportunity. At this point, prices were high
and the investor can make selling decision.
The indicator gives selling signal.

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 59

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Company Profile:
Wockhardt Ltd. is a pharmaceutical and biotechnology company headquartered
in Mumbai, India. The company has manufacturing plants in India, UK, Ireland,
France and US, and subsidiaries in US, UK, Ireland and France. It is a global
company with more than half of its revenue coming from Europe.
In 20112012 its UK and USA sales alone were US$475 million. It has market
presence in emerging markets such as Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines,
Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Tanzania, Uganda, Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Mauritius,
Lebanon and Kuwait.
The Company has a market capitalization of over 211 billion (US$3.5 billion) and an
annual
turnover
of 36
billion (US$600 million). It
produces formulations, biopharmaceuticals, nutrition products, vaccines and active
pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). The company employs over 7,900 people
globally. Wockhardt Hospitals is a subsidiary of the Wockhardt Group.
Wockhardt was found by Habil Khorakiwala in the early 1960s. His father Fakhruddin
T. Khorakiwala had acquired Worli Chemical Works in 1959. This was incorporated
as Wockhardt Pvt. Ltd., in 1973. Wockhardt Ltd. was incorporated on July
8.1999.Wockhardt is often confused as a multinational because of its German
sounding name.
Wockhardt is the first company outside
manufacture recombinant human insulin.
Description
Industry
Registered Office

of

the

US

and

Europe

to

E-mail

Details
Pharmaceuticals & Drugs
Wockhardt Towers, Bandra-Kurla complex, Bandra East,
Mumbai, Maharashtra-4000051
investorrelations@wockhardt.com

Chairman

H F Khorakiwala

Managing Director

Murtaza Khorakiwala

Company Secretary

V R Khetan

Table 2.1 Financial Ratios:


Ratios

Mar 2013

Mar 2012

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 60

Mar 2011

Mar 2010

Mar 2009

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Per share ratios:
Dividend per share

5.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Operating profit per share

53.95

81.11

38.42

40.24

32.45

Book value per share

74.76

10.98

-6.74

-10.69

61.89

Net Operating income/share

225.51

233.94

160.38

170.76

137.51

Earnings Per Share

56.90

16.79

-12.07

-72.57

-31.87

Profitability Ratios:
Gross Profit Margin (%)

20.65

32.07

20.44

19.76

20.53

24.74
Net Profit
Margin (%)
Return on Net Worth (%)

7.13

-7.45

-41.81

-22.55

76.10

152.88

179.10

679.11

-51.49

Return on Capital Employed

43.11

42.51

13.78

15.39

13.73

Leverage Ratio:
Debt to Equity Ratio

0.58

14.35

--

--

2.69

Debt to Asset Ratio

0.13

0.52

0.74

0.78

0.73
--

Payout Ratio:
D/P Ratio
Earning Retention Ratio

8.79
82.81

-100.00

---

---

--

Liquidity Ratio:
Current Ratio

0.65

0.67

0.75

0.85

1.02

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 61

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis

0.49

0.54

1.33

1.79

1.86

Acid Test
Ratio
Activity Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio

4.68

5.89

6.69

7.05

7.00

Debtors Turnover Ratio

10.57

8.94

4.53

4.05

3.73

Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio

1.90

2.14

1.65

1.91

1.64

Total Asset Turnover Ratio

2.01

1.80

0.70

0.75

0.60

Interpretation:
EPS is inconsistent but increased every year from 2009 to 2013 so shareholder can
expect better in future. Net operating incomes are increasing from past 5 years.
Dividend payout ratio is increasing in the last 5 years. According to Debt Equity ratio,
this company is decreasing their debts every year to past 5 years.
As per investor point of view, this company is recommended for the investment.
COMPANY PROFILE:
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd is an Indian subsidiary of GlaxoSmithKline
plc, one of the world's leading research based pharmaceutical and healthcare
companies.
BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 62

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
It is one of the oldest pharmaceuticals companies in India. It product portfolio
includes prescription medicines and vaccines. Its prescription medicines range across
therapeutic
areas
such
as
antiinfectives, dermatology, gynaecology, diabetes, oncology, cardiovascular disease and
respiratory diseases.
It also offers a range of vaccines, for the prevention of hepatitis A, hepatitis B,
invasive disease caused by H, influenzae, chickenpox, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus,
rotavirus, cervical cancer and others.
It was founded 13 November 1924 in India under the name of H.J.Foster & Co.
Limited as an Agency House for distributing Baby Food Glaxo, Joseph Nathan & Co.
In 1950, it changed its name to Glaxo Laboratories (I) Ltd.
Description
Industry
Registered Office

Details
Pharmaceuticals & Drugs
Dr. Annie Besant Road,
Worli, Mumbai,Maharashtra-400030

E-mail

ajay.a.nadkarni@gsk.com

Chairman

D S Parekh

Managing Director

H B Joshipura

Company Secretary

Table 2.2 Financial Ratios:


Ratios
Per share ratios
Dividend per share

Dec 2013

Dec 2012

Dec 2011

Dec 2010

Dec 2009

50.00

50.00

45.00

40.00

30.00

Operating profit per share

61.64

96.71

93.11

91.01

81.28

Book value per share

238.15

237.30

226.67

227.95

207.68

Net Operating income/share

300.60

310.53

276.95

250.90

222.44

Earnings Per Share

59.25

68.15

50.84

66.55

60.48

Profitability Ratios
Gross Profit Margin (%)

--

--

32.74

35.44

35.67

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 63

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Net Profit Margin (%)

18.26

20.44

17.11

25.05

25.74

Return on Net Worth (%)

--

--

22.42

29.19

29.12

Return on Capital Employed

--

--

48.75

45.35

44.09

Leverage Ratio
Debt to Equity Ratio
Debt to Asset Ratio

-0.18

-0.20

-0.25

-0.27

-0.31

Payout Ratio
D/P Ratio
Earning Retention Ratio

84.39
10.98

73.37
41.63

88.51
40.51

60.10
33.74

49.60
43.87

Current Ratio

2.60

2.65

2.46

2.94

3.06

Acid Test
Ratio

2.21

2.31

2.11

2.53

2.63

Activity Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Debtors Turnover Ratio

-23.99

-26.14

7.33
35.45

7.82
42.18

7.71
33.74

Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio

--

--

8.64

6.67

6.52

Total Asset Turnover Ratio

--

--

1.22

1.10

1.07

Interpretation:
EPS is inconsistent and decreasing as compared to last 2 years so shareholder
cant expect better in future. Net operating incomes are increasing from past 5
years. Dividend payout ratio is inconsistent but increased in past 2 years. This
company maintains the current ratio and Quick ratio is also ideal. There is no debt
for this company.
As per investor point of view, this company is not recommended for the
investment.
Company Profile:
BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 64

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Tata Consultancy Services Limited (TCSL) is a multinational information technology
(IT) service, consulting and business solutions company headquartered in India.
TCS operates in 46 countries. It is a subsidiary of the Tata Group and is listed on
the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India.
TCS is the largest Indian company by market capitalization and is the largest Indiabased IT services company by 2013 revenues. TCS is now placed among the Big 4
most valuable IT services brands worldwide.
TCS is ranked 40th overall in the Forbes World's Most Innovative Companies
ranking, making it both the highest-ranked IT services company and the top Indian
company. It is the world's 10th largest IT services provider, measured by revenues.
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (TCS) was founded in 1968 by a division of Tata Sons
Limited.
In the 2011/12 fiscal year, TCS achieved annual revenues of over US$10 billion for
the first time. In May 2013, TCS was awarded a six-year contract worth over 1100
crores to provide services to the Indian Department of Posts. In 2013 TCS moved
from the 13th position to 10th position in the League of top 10 global IT services
companies.
Description
Industry
Registered Office

Details
IT Services, IT Consulting
9th Floor, Nirmal Building,
Nariman Point, Mumbai, Maharashtra -400021

E-mail

csq-unit@tsrdarashaw.com

Chairman

Cyrus Mistry

Managing Director

N Chandrasekaran

Company Secretary

Table 2.3 Financial Ratios:


Ratios
Per share ratios
Dividend per share

Mar 2014

Mar 2013

Mar 2012

Mar 2011

Mar 2010

32.00

22.00

25.00

14.00

20.00

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 65

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Operating profit per share

109.94

73.09

58.17

44.78

34.06

Book value per share

224.90

165.86

126.49

99.53

76.72

Net Operating income/share

330.18

247.42

198.54

149.58

117.74

Earnings Per Share

94.17

65.23

55.97

38.62

28.62

Profitability Ratios
Gross Profit Margin (%)
Net Profit Margin (%)

31.62
27.25

27.88
25.24

27.52
26.42

28.12
25.42

26.89
24.13

Return on Net Worth (%)

41.87

39.32

44.24

38.80

37.30

Return on Capital Employed

53.39

48.07

55.31

44.38

42.46

Leverage Ratio
Debt to Equity Ratio

--

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

Debt to Asset Ratio

0.2

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.2

Payout Ratio
D/P Ratio

33.98

33.73

44.67

36.25

69.88

Earning Retention Ratio

66.03

66.28

48.06

57.79

19.37

Current Ratio

3.18

2.85

2.48

2.45

1.49

Acid Test Ratio

3.16

2.88

2.47

2.44

1.48

Activity Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio

7546.43

7638.19

9386.18

5451.71

3398.94

Debtors Turnover Ratio

5.04

4.77

5.59

7.19

6.54

Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio

5.79

5.32

5.39

4.91

4.74

Total Asset Turnover Ratio

1.47

1.48

1.56

1.50

1.52

Interpretation:
EPS is increasing every year from 2010 to 2014 so shareholder can expect better
in future. Net operating incomes are also increasing from past 5 years. Dividend
payout ratio is inconsistent but increased in last 2 years. Current Ratio is ideal.
Quick ratio is also ideal. There is no debt for TCS in current year.
BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 66

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
As per investor point of view, this company is recommended to invest.
Company Profile:
Infosys (formerly Infosys
Technologies) is
an Indian multinational that
provides business
consulting, information
technology, software
engineering and outsourcing services. It is headquartered in Bangalore, Karnataka.
Infosys is the third-largest India-based IT services company by 2014 revenues, and
the fifth largest employer of H-1B visa professionals in the United States in FY
2013. On 31 March 2014, its market capitalization was INR 188,510crores ($31.11
billion), making it India's fifth largest publicly traded company.
Infosys was co-founded in 1981 by N. R. Narayana Murthy, Nandan Nilekani, N. S.
Raghavan, S. Gopalakrishnan, S. D. Shibulal, K. Dinesh and Ashok Arora after they
resigned from Patni Computer Systems.
On 1 June 2013, Mr. Narayana Murthy, one of the founding members of Infosys and
its long time CEO, returned from his retirement to assume office in Infosys as
its Executive Chairman.
Description
Industry
Registered Office

Details
IT Software
Plot No. 44 & 97A, Hosur Road,
Electronic City, Bangalore, Karnataka-500100

E-mail

investors@infosys.com

Chairman

Narayan Murthy

Managing Director

Vishal Sikka

Company Secretary

Parvatheesam k

Table 2.4 Financial Ratios:


Ratios
Per share ratios
Dividend per share

Mar 2014

Mar 2013

Mar 2012

Mar 2011

Mar 2010

63.00

42.00

47.00

60.00

25.00

Operating profit per share

219.23

191.82

175.21

146.55

128.30

Book value per share

736.64

627.95

518.21

426.73

384.02

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 67

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Net Operating income/share

776.00

640.24

544.28

442.13

368.40

Earnings Per Share

178.40

158.75

147.50

112.22

101.13

Profitability Ratios
Gross Profit Margin (%)
Net Profit Margin (%)

-21.72

-23.38

-25.60

-24.28

-26.36

Return on Net Worth (%)

--

--

--

--

--

Return on Capital Employed

--

--

--

--

--

Leverage Ratio
Debt to Equity Ratio

--

--

--

--

--

Debt to Asset Ratio

--

--

--

--

--

Payout Ratio
D/P Ratio

35.31

26.46

31.86

53.47

24.72

Earning Retention Ratio

64.51

73.30

66.21

46.54

70.67

Current Ratio

3.70

4.75

4.91

5.34

4.28

Acid Test Ratio

3.65

4.69

4.88

5.28

4.20

Activity Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Debtors Turnover Ratio

-6.47

-6.25

-6.50

-6.81

-6.37

Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio

--

--

--

--

--

Total Asset Turnover Ratio

--

--

--

--

--

Interpretation:
EPS is increasing every year from 2010 to 2014 so shareholder can expect better
in future. Net operating incomes are increasing from past 5 years. Dividend
payout ratio is inconsistent but has increased in last 2 years. Current Ratio and
Quick ratio are ideal. There is no debt for Infosys.

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 68

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
As per investor point of view, this company is recommended to invest.
Company Profile:
Nestle S.A. is a Swiss multinational food and beverage company headquartered
in Vevey, Switzerland. It is the largest food company in the world measured by
revenues.
Nestle's products include baby food, bottled water, breakfast cereals, coffee and tea,
confectionery, dairy products, ice cream, frozen food, pet foods, and snacks. 29 of
Nestle's brands have annual sales of over 1 billion Swiss francs (about
$1.1billion)
, including Nespresso, Nescafe, Kit
Kat, Smarties, Nesquik, Stouffer's, Vittel, and Maggi. Nestle has 447 factories,
operates in 194 countries, and employs around 333,000 people.
Nestle was formed in 1905 by the merger of the Anglo-Swiss Milk Company,
established in 1866 by brothers George Page and Charles Page, and Farine Lacte
Henri Nestle, founded in 1866 by Henri Nestl.
In 2011, Nestl was listed No. 1 in the Fortune Global 500 as the world's most
profitable corporation. With a market capitalization of $233 billion, Nestle ranked No.
9 in the FT Global 500 2013.
Description
Industry

Details
Consumer Food

Registered Office

M-5 A, Connaught circus, New Delhi,


Delhi-110001

E-mail

investor@in.nestle.com

Chairman
Managing Director

Etienne Szivo

Company Secretary

B Murli

Table 2.5 Financial Ratios:


Ratios
Per share ratios
Dividend per share

Dec 2013

Dec 2012

Dec 2011

Dec 2010

Dec 2009

48.50

48.50

48.50

48.50

48.50

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 69

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Operating profit per share

202.00

192.71

159.51

129.30

105.31

Book value per share

245.68

186.53

132.13

88.72

60.29

Net Operating income/share

943.94

864.44

776.93

649.29

533.31

Earnings Per Share

115.87

110.76

99.73

84.91

67.94

Profitability Ratios
Gross Profit Margin (%)

17.77

18.59

18.48

17.87

17.58

Net Profit Margin (%)

12.16

12.76

12.75

13.00

12.67

Return on Net Worth (%)

47.16

59.38

75.47

95.70

112.68

Return on Capital Employed

47.79

55.43

63.73

135.06

160.29

Leverage Ratio
Debt to Equity Ratio

0.50

0.58

0.76

--

--

Debt to Asset Ratio

0.33

0.37

0.43

--

--

Payout Ratio
D/P Ratio
Earning Retention Ratio

41.86
57.62

43.79
57.52

48.63
53.03

57.12
34.20

71.39
18.15

Current Ratio

0.65

0.54

0.42

0.62

0.60

Acid Test Ratio

0.39

0.22

0.24

0.27

0.24

Activity Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio

12.37

11.55

11.60

12.33

11.61

Debtors Turnover Ratio

105.92

82.04

83.83

98.22

93.68

Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio

1.88

1.91

3.00

3.49

3.24

Total Asset Turnover Ratio

2.56

2.92

3.43

7.86

9.75

Interpretation:
EPS is increasing every year from 2009 to 2013; hence the shareholders can
expect better returns in the future. Net operating income is increasing for the past
5 years. Dividend payout ratio is decreasing consistently from past 5 years. It
BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 70

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
means the company is retaining its earnings. According to Debt Equity ratio, this
company is reducing its debt every year for the last 5 years.
As per investor point of view, this company is recommended for investment.
Company Profile:
Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) is an Indian consumer goods company based
in Mumbai, Maharashtra. It is owned by Anglo-Dutch company Unilever which owns
a 52% controlling share in HUL. HUL's products include foods, beverages, cleaning
agents and personal care products.
HUL was established in 1933 as Lever Brothers India Limited and, in 1956, became
known as Hindustan Lever Limited, as a result of a merger between Lever Brothers,
Hindustan Vanaspati Mfg. Co. Ltd. and United Traders Ltd. It is headquartered
in Mumbai, India and employs over 16,500 workers. The company was renamed in
June 2007 as "Hindustan Unilever Limited".
Lever Brothers first commenced operations in India in the summer of 1888, when
crates full of Sunlight soap bars, embossed with the words "Made in England by
Lever Brothers" were shipped to the Kolkata harbour and it began an era of marketing
branded Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG).
Hindustan Unilever's distribution covers over 2 million retail outlets across India
directly and its products are available in over 6.4 million outlets in the country. As per
Nielsen market research data, two out of three Indians use HUL products.
The company has a distribution channel of 6.3 million outlets and owns 35 major
Indian brands.
Description
Industry

Details
Consumer Food

Registered Office

Unilever House,
B D Sawant Marg, Chakala,
Mumbai
Maharashtra -400099

E-mail

levercare.shareholder@unilever.com

Chairman

Harish Manwani

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 71

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Managing Director

Sanjiv Mehta

Company Secretary

Table 2.6 Financial Ratios:


Ratios
Per share ratios
Dividend per share

Mar 2014

Mar 2013

Mar 2012

Mar 2011

Mar 2010

13.00

18.50

7.50

6.50

6.50

Operating profit per share

20.69

18.51

15.23

12.40

12.82

Book value per share

15.15

12.37

16.25

12.32

11.84

Net Operating income/share

129.56

119.36

102.32

91.39

81.45

Earnings Per Share

17.88

17.56

12.45

10.68

10.09

Profitability Ratios
Gross Profit Margin (%)

15.04

14.59

13.89

12.45

14.70

Net Profit Margin (%)

13.50

14.37

12.01

11.52

12.29

Return on Net Worth (%)

118.01

141.98

76.61

86.70

85.25

Return on Capital Employed

147.56

163.59

95.40

102.66

106.78

Leverage Ratio
Debt to Equity Ratio

--

--

--

--

--

Debt to Asset Ratio

--

--

--

--

--

Payout Ratio
D/P Ratio
Earning Retention Ratio
Current Ratio 0.74

72.71
22.74
0.76

105.35
-25.45
0.83

60.24
26.77

60.86
21.79

64.42
21.25
0.84

0.86

Acid Test Ratio

0.44

0.45

0.46

0.46

0.46

Activity Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio

10.20

10.21

8.79

7.02

8.99

Debtors Turnover Ratio

33.96

34.13

27.27

24.34

29.24

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 72

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio

6.77

6.73

6.26

5.65

5.35

Total Asset Turnover Ratio

8.61

9.78

6.35

7.52

7.66

Interpretation:
The above analysis shows that the EPS is steadily increasing every year from
2010 to 2014. This infers that the shareholders can expect better earnings in the
future. It can be further observed that the Net operating income is increasing for 5
years i.e., from 2009 to 2013, implying that it is better to invest. The company
shows positive profits in the last 5 year. Dividend payout ratio is inconsistent but
it has decreased in the last 2 years. There are no debts for Hindustan Unilever.
As per investor point of view, this company is recommended for investment.

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 73

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis

CHAPTER 5

FINDINGS:

From this study it was found that technical analysis indicators and
fundamental analysis ratios can be used for making buying and selling

decisions in the stock market.


It was also found that a combination of technical analysis indicators will give
the accurate indication about the trend in future prices rather than a single

indicator.
From this fundamental study it is clear that, before investing in any security
investor should know industry growth and company performance in that

industry.
From the study it is clear that, if there is a better performance there will be

increase in share price of the company.


From the study it is clear that before investing in any security , for the safer
side of investor it is better to have knowledge about the economic growth of
the country.

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 74

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
SUGGESTIONS:
Technical Analysis will improve the investment decisions. It is simple and more
understandable than fundamental analysis because the information required for
technical analysis is rely available as compared to fundamental analysis.

To become a perfect trader one must know that some stocks sometimes are
declining while others are advancing and they are called cross current. Only
by study of these individual stock and the different groups, one can determine
which stock is supposed to decline at the time when another stock is going to

advance.
A single indicator is not enough for arriving at a selling or buying decision. A
combination of Technical Analysis indicators is required for more accurate

decisions.
Even though Technical Analysis itself is enough for making decisions in stock
market, simultaneous usage of both fundamental and technical analysis will

reduce errors in forecasting future prices.


The complete dependence on technical analysis is not good sign for
investment as Fundamental Analysis gives accurate and specific information

regarding the investments made by the investor.


The investor should consider the performance of the company in considering
sales growth, stability of sales before investing.

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 75

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis
CONCLUSION:
In general, it can be concluded from the results that the Technical indicator can play
useful role in the timing of stock market entry and exit. Fundamental Analysis helps
the investor to know the present condition of economic, industry and company before
investing to maximize the income.
The study shows that technical Analysis indicators can give a fair idea about future
price movements in stock market. It is necessary to use more than 2-3 indicators for
reaching a conclusion regarding the share price movement. Whereas in Fundamental
Analysis the safe return is ensured and there is less amount of risk in gaining the
return.
This study shows that all technical indicators cannot give an accurate decision and
historical prices have an impact on future share prices. So past trend can be used for
predicting the trend of the future price.

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 76

A Study of selected stocks of IT, Pharmaceutical


and FMCG Using Technical and Fundamental
analysis

BIBLIOGRAPHY:

Security Analysis and Portfolio Management- Punithavathy Pandian

Vikas Publication 2/e 2005


Financial Management M.Y. Khan and P.K Jain 5 th edition TATA

Mcgraw HILL
www.nseindia.com
www.investopedia.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.financeyahoo.com
www.economicstimes.com

BMS College of Engineering, BangalorePage 77

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