13 Swing Riding Polls Wave One

LEADNOW
AUGUST 19, 2015

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE ONE: AUGUST 2015 |

METHODOLOGY
Environics was commissioned by LeadNow to conduct telephone surveys of
approximately 500 eligible voters in each of 13 federal ridings across Canada
between August 15 and 18, 2015. The research was conducted using
Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology and the findings were weighted
by age and gender to reflect the demographic makeup of the electorate.
A total of 7,573 eligible voters were surveyed. Survey of this magnitude will
yield aggregate results which can be considered accurate to within plus or
minus 1.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The sample size and
margin of error for each individual riding are described on the following
page.
The survey explored vote intention in the upcoming federal election. In each
riding the names of nominated local candidates were read. Questions were
also posed on whether respondents felt they were voting to re-elect or
defeat the Conservative government and those supporting opposition party
candidates were asked about their willingness to switch their vote to the
candidate with the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.

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Methodology
Riding

Field dates

Sample size

Margin of error

Fredericton

Aug 15-16

799

3.5

Eglinton-Lawrence

Aug 15-16

588

4.0

Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Aug 15-16

544

4.2

Kitchener Centre

Aug 15-16

625

3.9

London North Centre

Aug 15-16

700

3.7

Willowdale

Aug 15-17

508

4.3

Elmwood-Transcona

Aug 15-16

517

4.3

Saskatoon-University

Aug 15-16

691

3.7

Calgary Centre

Aug 16-18

517

4.3

Edmonton Griesbach

Aug 15-16

509

4.3

Port Moody-Coquitlam

Aug 16-18

511

4.3

Vancouver Granville

Aug 16-18

482

4.5

West Vancouver-Sunshine CoastSea to Sky Country

Aug 15-16

582

4.1

TOTAL

Aug 15-18

7,573

1.1

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Across these 13 ridings CPC support has

dropped 14 points since Election 2011
August 2015 Vote intention 13 Swing ridings combined

All voters

29

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP candidate

28

33

26

CPC candidate

25

31

29

45

Liberal candidate

Green candidate

24

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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Six in ten are voting to defeat the Harper

Conservatives and elect a different government
Voting to re-elect or defeat Harper Conservatives

Voting to defeat Harper

Voting to re-elect Harper
dk

Q. In this election, would you say you are voting to re-elect Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, or are you voting to defeat the
Harper Conservatives and elect a different government?

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Six in ten opposition voters are willing to vote for

candidate with best chance of beating Conservatives
according to local polling
Willing to change vote vs. sticking with first choice

62%

62%

63%

54%
45%
38%

Willing to change vote to defeat Conservative candidate

Total

NDP supporters

37%

36%

Would not change vote based on local polling

Liberal supporters

Green supporters

Q. If local polling showed that another candidate had the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate in your riding, would you
be willing to change your vote in order to defeat the Conservative, or would you stick with your current vote regardless?

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Liberals lead by 5 in Fredericton;

CPC support is down 18% from 2011
August 2015 Fredericton vote intention

All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Scott-Levesque

22

25

26

29

29

24

CPC/Ashfield

34

47

Liberal/Decourcey

10

Green/Babineau

15

12

24 4

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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CPC/Liberals tied in Eglinton-Lawrence; NDP

support has doubled since 2011
August 2015 Eglinton-Lawrence vote intention

All voters

23

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Thomson

33

25

36

12

CPC/Oliver

32 4

47

Liberal/Mendicino

35 4

38 3

Green

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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Liberals lead CPC by 5 in EtobicokeLakeshore; NDP is close behind

August 2015 Etobicoke Lakeshore vote intention

All voters

24

Decided voters

27

28

Election 2011 results

20

NDP/Trotter

CPC/Trottier

30 4

31

40

Liberal/Maloney

Green/Salewsy

14

36

35 4

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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Kitchener Centre is a 3-way tossup;

11 point CPC to NDP swing since 2011
August 2015 Kitchener Centre vote intention
All voters

29

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Cadell

26

33

22

CPC/Woodworth

27

29

40

Liberal/Saini

Green/Wendler

13

31

32

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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London North Centre is a Liberal/CPC

tossup; NDP is a strong third
August 2015 London North Centre vote intention
All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Gutierrez-Sanin

24

29

27

32

24

CPC/Truppe

30

11

34

37

Liberal/Gragiskatos

Green/Dyck

34 4

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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Liberals lead CPC by 5 in Willowdale; NDP is

up 7 points from 2011
August 2015 Willowdale vote intention

All voters

23

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Tabasinejad

28

33 4

26

32

19

CPC/Leung

37

41

Liberal/Ehsassi

12

391

Green

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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NDP leads CPC by 9 in Elmwood-Transcona;

Liberals up 20 from 2011
August 2015 Elmwood-Transcona vote intention

All voters

34

Decided voters

39

Election 2011 results

NDP/Blaikie

26

21

30

45

CPC/Toet

14

25

47

Liberal/Richardson-Lipon

Green

5 3

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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NDP leads CPC by 7 in Saskatoon University

Liberals are up 12 from 2011
August 2015 Saskatoon-University vote intention

All voters

37

Decided voters

41

Election 2011 results

NDP/Card

31

34

38

CPC/Trost

Liberal/Block

20 4

22 4

49

Green

10 3

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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CPC leads Liberals by 12 points in Calgary

Centre
August 2015 Calgary Centre vote intention

All voters

15

Decided voters

By-election 2012 results

Election 2011 Results

NDP/Ratti

40

17

29

44

37

15

CPC/Crockatt

33

55

Liberal/Hehr

Green/Boonlert

32

26

19

10

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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NDP leads CPC by 16 in Edmonton Griesbach

August 2015 Edmonton Griesbach vote intention
All voters

44

Decided voters

48

Election 2011 results

NDP/Irwin

29

Liberal/Gold

32

37

CPC/Diotte

13

15

53

Green/Workman

7 3

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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NDP leads by a 2 to 1 margin in

Port Moody-Coquitlam
August 2015 Port Moody-Coquitlam vote intention

All voters

49

Decided voters

54

Election 2011 results

NDP/Donnelly

24

27

40

CPC/Laidler

Liberal/Adcock

13

14

46

Green/Madsen

9 4

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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NDP leads CPC by 6 in Vancouver Granville;

Liberal support has declined since 2011
August 2015 Vancouver Granville vote intention

All voters

32

Decided voters

36

Election 2011 results

NDP/Oreck

27

30

24

CPC/Broshko

21

35

Liberal/Wilson-Raybould

24

10

30

Green/Barkusky

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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Liberals narrowly lead NDP in West

Vancouver-; CPC support is down 23 points
August 2015 West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country vote intention

All voters

26

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Koopman

27

22

29

23

30

21

CPC/Weston

18

46

Liberal/Goldsmith-Jones

Green/Melamed

19

24

Undecided/dk/na

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] ?
Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a partys candidate that you are leaning towards?

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FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR QUESTIONS CONTACT:

Brenda Sharpe
SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Tel: 613-230-5089 x 228

Email: brenda.sharpe@environics.ca

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