Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Rating
Buy
Target
| 182
Target Period
12-15 months
Potential Upside
25%
FY13
10.7
23.3
4.7
16.1
FY14E
15.6
22.6
28.6
21.8
FY15E
10.6
12.7
14.5
14.5
FY16E
9.5
11.8
13.1
13.1
FY13
24.2
28.7
1.2
11.7
7.7
10.5
FY14E
18.8
22.3
1.1
9.9
9.3
12.2
FY15E
16.5
19.5
1.0
8.7
9.9
12.6
FY16E
14.5
17.2
0.9
7.6
10.4
12.9
Valuation Summary
P/E (x)
Target P/E
Mkt Cap/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoNW (%)
RoCE (%)
Stock Data
Market Capitalization
Total Debt (FY13)
Cash and Investments (FY13)
EV
52 week H/L
Equity capital
Face value
MF Holding (%)
FII Holding (%)
| 9028.6 Crore
| 672.7 Crore
| 693 Crore
| 9008.3 Crore
179 / 124
| 61.8 Crore
|1
18.5
17.9
1M
4.5
4.8
4.9
3M
(1.7)
7.7
10.0
6M
(0.3)
32.5
14.7
12M
12.6
31.5
23.1
Price movement
6,400
200
6,000
150
5,600
100
5,200
50
4,800
4,400
Aug-12
0
Nov-12
Feb-13
Price (R.H.S)
May-13
| 146
Aug-13
Nifty (L.H.S)
Analysts name
Sanjay Manyal
sanjay.manyal@icicisecurities.com
Parineeta Poddar
parineeta.poddar@icicisecurities.com
Tata Global Beverages (TGBL) is the second largest branded tea player in
the world and the market leader in the domestic tea market with its
flagship brands, Tetley and Tata Tea, respectively. Apart from tea, TGBLs
increasing presence in the coffee and water businesses through
acquisition of dominant brands (Eight O Clock Coffee, Grand Coffee,
Himalayan water) has transformed the tea company into a good-for-youbeverages company. Further, we believe TGBLs JV with Starbucks Inc
US, to establish Starbucks stores across the country, and PepsiCo Ltd, to
handle distribution of its water products, are key positives for revenue
and earnings growth, going ahead. Accordingly, we expect revenues,
earnings (adjusted PAT) to grow at a higher CAGR (FY13-16E) of 12%,
15.7%, respectively. We initiate coverage on TGBL with a BUY rating.
Brand strength in tea to drive revenues across geographies
TGBL derives ~70% of its revenues (FY13) from tea. Tea revenues have
grown at a healthy CAGR of 9.2% in FY08-13. The growth has been aided
by its leadership position in Canada (Tetley), India (22.2% value share of
Tata Tea), UK (27% value share of Tetley), acquisition of leading brands
across the globe, Good Earth in US (20.6% volume share), Joekels in
South Africa (third largest player), Jemca in Czech Republic (market
leader) and Vitax in Poland (16% share of fruit tea market). Further,
capitalising on Tetleys brand strength TGBL has successfully ventured
into Australia and the Middle East. Therefore, we believe with a strong
portfolio of tea brands across geographies, TGBL would continue to grow
its tea revenues at reasonable CAGR of 7.6% in FY13-16E.
Strengthening coffee business to aid earnings
The coffee business contributes 35.8% (6.1% in FY06) to PBIT and 26.2%
(4.3% in FY06) to revenues (FY13). The increasing contribution of the
business has aided PBIT margins as earnings from the coffee business are
higher (15.2% in FY13) compared to tea (10.2% FY13). We expect coffees
contribution in revenues to increase to 29% by FY16E, consequently
driving margins (PBIT) growth, going ahead.
Earnings growth to gain traction, attractively valued
We expect TGBLs earnings (adjusted PAT) to witness a higher CAGR of
15.7% in FY13-16E led by changing sales mix, premiumisation across the
portfolio and Starbucks JV contributing positively to EBITDA from FY16E
onwards. We believe the stock is trading at an attractive P/E of 18.8x and
16.5x FY15E and FY16E EPS of | 8.9 and | 10, respectively. We have
valued the stock on an SOTP basis assigning it a target price of | 182.
Exhibit 1: Financial Performance
(Year-end March)
Total Operating Income
EBITDA
PAT (Adjusted)
EPS Adjusted (|)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Debt/Equity (x)
RoNW (%)
RoCE (%)
| crore
FY12
6,640.0
623.1
339.2
5.5
14.5
0.2
7.8
8.3
FY13
7,351.0
768.5
393.7
6.4
11.7
0.1
7.7
10.5
FY14E
8,498.4
942.4
479.3
7.8
9.9
0.2
9.3
12.2
FY15E
9,402.7
1,062.4
548.7
8.9
8.6
0.2
9.9
12.6
FY16E
10,292.0
1,187.4
620.7
10.0
7.5
0.2
10.4
12.9
Company Background
Holding (%)
Promoters
35.2
Institutional Investors
36.4
Public
28.4
25.2
15.4
23.2
16.5
TGBL entered the branded tea business in 1991 and has grown over the
years through acquisitions and joint ventures. Till date, the largest
acquisition for the company has been the European tea brand Tetley in
2000 for $450 million. The other major acquisitions by TGBL include tea
company Good Earth in the US (2005), Eight O Clock (EOC) coffee brand
in the US (2006) and coffee brand Grand in Russia (2009). Apart from tea
and coffee, the company has expanded its beverage offerings to the
mineral water business by investing in Mount Everest Mineral Water
Company (2007) that owns the Himalayan brand. With the diversification
in the product basket of Tata Tea, the company changed its name to Tata
Global Beverages in 2010 with the aim of establishing itself as a global
beverage company from a branded tea marketing company.
19.2
18.5
19.1
17.8
17.9 18.5
In November, 2010, TGBL entered into a 50:50 joint venture with PepsiCo
Ltd to develop, manufacture, sell and distribute hydration beverages
under the JV, NourishCo Beverages. Further, in 2012, TGBL entered into a
50:50 JV with Starbucks Coffee International Inc, US to set up Starbucks
coffee stores in India.
With successful acquisitions over the years, net revenues and earnings
(adjusted PAT) have grown at a CAGR (FY09-13) of 10.5% to | 7232.4
crore and 9.3% to | 400.9 crore, respectively. Gross revenues (| 7270.3
crore in FY13) consist of ~73% from tea, ~26% from coffee, ~1% from
water and other businesses. Geographically gross revenues (FY13) are
comprised of 31.8% from India, 21.3% from the UK, 27.4% from the US
and Canada and 19.5% from other countries (Poland, South Africa,
Australia, Czech Republic).
With the companys leading position across geographies and a strong
portfolio of brands, we expect revenues and earnings to post a CAGR of
12% and 15.7%, respectively, in FY13-16E.
Exhibit 2: TGBL's timeline
Tata enters into
alliance with James
Finlay to form Tata
Tata Tea enters
Finlay
brand business
1964 1988
Tata Tea is
born, James
Finlay is
bought out
1991
1993
Tata Tea
acquires the
Tetley
Group Ltd
2000
JV with Allied
Lysons Plc, Tata
Tetley is
established
2005
Tetley Group
acquires Good
Earth, US
2006
Integration of
beverages brands
announced; Group
acquires Grand
Coffee, Russia
2007
2009
Tata Global
Beverages
corporate brand
announced
2010
2011
2012
Page 2
Brands
Segment
Tata Tea (Premium, Gold. Gold Darjelling) Tea
Tea
Tea
Geography
India
Kanan Devan
Tea
Tetley
Tea
Joekels
Tea
South Africa
Good Earth
Tea
USA
Jemca
Tea
Czech Republic
Vitax
Tea
Poland
Grand
Russia
Tata Coffee
Plantation
Coffee
USA
Activate
Functional Water
USA
Himalaya
Water
India
Brands
Tata Water Plus
Tata Gluco Plus
Starbucks (Coffee Retail)
Segment
Functional Water
Functional Water
Coffee
Country
India
India
India
Others
1%
Others
13%
Coffee
26%
Tea
73%
Tetley
38%
India Tea
Brands
32%
Page 3
Investment Rationale
Revenue mix: Increasing contribution of coffee to aid revenue, PBIT growth
FY13 revenues (gross revenues of | 7270.3 crore) are comprised of 72.8%
from tea, 26.2% from coffee and 1% from other businesses (water and
joint ventures). Going ahead, by FY16E, we expect the contribution of tea
to decline to 64.8%, coffee to increase to 29% and others to increase to
6.2%. The higher contribution of coffee to revenues would be driven by
15.7% growth (CAGR in FY13-16E) in coffee revenues compared to 7.6%
growth (CAGR in FY13-16E) in tea revenues. The significant increase in
contribution of others to 6.2% by FY16E from 1% (FY13) would be aided
by revenues from joint ventures (largely Starbucks).
Exhibit 6: Revenue break-up: Contribution of coffee slated to increase from ~26% in FY13 to ~29% by FY16E
100%
134.4
157.5
664.8
(| crore)
895.4
1012.5
1299.3
1423.3
1706.4
1903.3
2503.5
2719.2
2944.9
3317.4
3407.0
3767.6
4381.8
4476.7
4766.8
5291.4
5639.7
6117.7
6588.0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
80%
60%
40%
2844.4
2930.0
20%
0%
FY05
FY06
Tea
Coffee
Others
148.8
146.6
239.7
240.6
196.1
289.2
621.1
560.3
799.6
651.2
683.4
807.8
0%
FY08
FY09
FY10
Tea
Coffee
FY11
FY12
Others
FY13
16.9
10
15.2
14.5
11.5
13.9
11.8
13.1
9.4
20%
-20%
18.4
15
60%
40%
16.6
10.6
10.3
FY12
FY13
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
Tea
FY11
Coffee
Page 4
3407.0
3767.6
4381.8
4476.7
4766.8
5291.4
5639.7
6117.7
6588.0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
Tea revenues
Acquired/Owned
Acquired
Year
October, 2005
Country
US
Value
$32 million
Remarks
20.6% volume market share; strong presence in West Coast
Joekels Tea
Acquired
October, 2006
South Africa
NA
Jemca
Tata Tea
Acquired
Owned
May, 2006
1988
Czech Republic
India
NA
-
Tetley
Acquired
Feburary, 2000
$450 million
Vitax
Acquired
2007
Poland
NA
Page 5
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
24.0%
22.5%
26.0%
29.0%
29.0%
30.0%
20.6%
27.8%
30.0%
29.0%
30.0%
32.0%
51.6%
45.9%
40.0%
39.0%
40.0%
38.0%
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Tetley
Others
18.5
18 16.7
19.7 19.5
20.3 20.5
18.6
Achieved mkt leadership and has
maintained it since then
16
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
FY12
Q1FY13
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
FY10
Q2FY11
FY07
Q1FY08
FY06
14
Page 6
Exhibit 12: Growth in domestic tea revenues driven by price increases, marketing campaigns & TGBLs market leadership position
3500
3000
Launched
Jaago Re!
campaign
Strong growth in
Premium, Gold &
Agni post Jaago Re!
19.9%
2000
1132.2
1686.8
3246.0
30%
2908.6
25%
2602.5
2273.3
20%
1991.5
1777.6
15%
1357.9
12.0%
5.4%
1000
500
24.2%
2500
1500
Price increases
taken in FY09
support growth
(| crore)
14.5%
14.1%
11.8%
10%
11.6%
5%
7.6%
0%
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
Sales (| core)
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
% Increase
Brand
Tata Tea Premium
Tata Tea Gold
Tata Tea Gold Darjelling*
Chakra Gold
Tata Tea Life
Tata Tea Agni
Gemini
Kanan Devan
Segment
Premium
Premium
Premium
Premium
Popular
Economy
Economy
Economy
Price (|/kg)
336
396
90
420
348
250
NA
213
Tetley Variants
Black
Green
Flavoured
Price
335
95
Grams
1000
200
Remarks
Flaghip brand; Volume leader in India
Fastest growing brand in the portfolio
Premium tea launched as tea bags
Leading brand in Andhra Pradesh
Nearest competitor of unbranded players
Market Leader in Andhra Pradesh
Leading brand in Kerala
Flavors
Assam Tea
Plain, Long Leaf, Ginger Mint & Lemon, Lemon
& Honey
Masala, Lemon, Ginger, Elaichi, Tulsi &
Lemon, Earl Grey
19500
33000
15%
7000
15000
25%
Page 7
Revenues from the UK are dominated by its largest tea brand Tetley.
Tetley is the market leader having ~27% share by value (CY12). We
estimate that tea revenues from the UK in FY13 stood at ~| 1400 crore
(~90% of total UK revenues in FY13) growing at 5.6% in FY08-13E. We
expect tea revenues from the UK to grow at a CAGR of 4.1% in FY13-16E
to | 1577.9 crore (FY16E). We believe growth in UK tea revenues will be
driven by a change in the product mix and increasing contribution of
premium offerings (Kenyan Tea, Red Bush, Specialty Tea and Herbal
Infusions). Further, the constant innovation and new offerings by TGBL in
the UK through increased marketing initiatives would be key in keeping
growth intact in UK markets in spite of a slowing black tea market.
Hence, we estimate sales growth in UKs tea revenues will be supported
by highest growth in green tea (~25% CAGR FY13-16E) and a moderate
growth in fruit & herbal tea and instant tea at ~5% CAGR in FY13-16E. The
growth in black tea would remain subdued at ~3% CAGR in FY13-16E.
Exhibit 15: Estimated UK sales (Tetley)
1500
(| crore)
CAGR 5.6%
2000. TGBL had acquired the brand for $420 million. Due to the
global presence of the brand, the acquisition had actually provided
1000
500
952
1018
1164
1059
1166
1252
1286
1365
1441
FY08E
FY09E
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
Green
Flavors
Original & Decaf
Extra Strong
Easy Squeeze
Pure & Decag
Lemon Green
Honey Green
Blueberry Green
Blend of both
Estate Selection
Pure
Vanilla
Earl Grey
Peppermint
Camomile
Remarks
Black tea is sourced from Africa and India (Assam) and blended
together; Black tea consumption is witnessing slowdown in
consumption
Green tea acquired from Asia and Africa is blended together. Green
tea market in UK is growing faster than the specialty tea and black
tea. Higher contribution of green tea is also aiding the margin
improvement.
Unique blend of black tea from Africa and India (Assam) with green
tea from Asia.
Launched in Q4FY13 it is a premium Kenyan tea
Redbush from South Africa is available originally as well as with
vanilla
It is present in original and with vanilla flavour
Herbal infusions are tea infused with herbal benefits
Page 8
(| crore)
Premium launches in Canada and Australia
749.5
679.9
652.9
718.2
772.1
818.4
843.0
601.3
572.0
61.1
72.7
57.8
59.8
65.5
70.1
74.3
78.0
80.4
FY08E
FY09E
FY10E
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
Tetley Sales
US
The US is largely a coffee consuming nation (coffee consumption in the
US is 9.39 lb/person compared to tea consumption of 0.9 lb/person in
2011). However, the consumption rate of coffee is declining (by volumes)
with tea sales catching up at a fast rate. According to the Tea Association
of America, the tea market in the US has grown from $1.8 billion in 1991
to $8.2 billion in 2011 (CAGR of ~7.9%). It is expected to grow at a higher
rate from here on with the sharpest growth expected in green tea.
Therefore, specialty tea driving tea demand in the US, TGBLs presence in
the segment through Good Earth (a speciality tea brand largely present
in the West Coast) and increasing foray through Tetley would drive
revenues to grow at 4.7% CAGR in FY13-16E against 2.8% CAGR in FY0813E.
Page 9
Tetley Variants
Classic Blend
British Blend
Pure Green
Iced Tea
Flavors
Original & Decaf
Premium Black & Decaf
Original& Decaf
Original & Decaf
Flavors
Sweet & Spicy
Mangosteen & Mango
Lemon Grass Plain & Decaf, Matcha, Sencha & Orange,
Jasmine, Gingseng Citrus, Mango Peach & Pineapple
Plain, Decaf, Vanilla, Cocoa & Seven Spice
Sweetly twisted, Cocoa Tango, Tropical Peach, English
Breakfast, Earl Grey & Apricot Ginger
Vanilla, Vanilla decaf, Citrus
For Cold, Sleep & Slimming
Chai Teas
Black Tea
White Tea
Medicinal Teas
Canada:
Tetley is the volume leader in Canada with ~39% share by volume and
~31% share by value (Euromonitor). The tea market in Canada was
estimated to be $415 million in 2011 and is estimated to increase to $541
million by 2017 (CAGR 4.5%). The Canadian market is largely dominated
by black tea consumption by volume (76.6% volume market share in
2012) and specialty tea consumption by value (~60% of value market
share in FY12).
With the black tea market attaining saturation in Canada, specialty tea is
the growth driver fuelled by more consumption of specialty black (up
27% YoY in 2012) and fruit & herbal (up 11% YoY in 2012) teas.
Hence, led by Tetleys market leadership in Canada, innovation in the
black tea category (orange pekoe along with flavours introduced in the
portfolio, offering alternatives to black tea consumers) and strengthening
green, fruit and herbal tea portfolio, (Tetley Green Tea Plus and Herbal
Cocktail-Inspired Teas launched in 2012), we expect tea revenues from
Canada to grow at 5.5% CAGR in FY13-16E against 3.6% CAGR in FY0813E. The higher contribution of specialty teas would drive the higher
revenue growth while we expect volume growth to remain modest.
Further, TGBLs launch of its domestic tea brand Tata Tea in Canada in
H1CY13 to meet the demands of the large Indian population residing
there would further aid black tea revenues from Canada.
Exhibit 19: TGBL's offerings in Canada
Tea Variant
Black/Orange Pekoe
Green
Flavoured Black
Rooibos
Flavors
Original, Decaf, Bold & Ceylon
Pure, Decaf, Earl Grey,Honey Lemon/Mint/Pomegranate,
Jasmine, Lyshee Pear, Passion Fruit Acai, Blueberry Green
Aware, Glow, Figure
Cammomile Mint - Calm, Blueberry Ginseng - Clarity,lemon
balm & honey - Cleanse,Cammomile Lemon - Dream, Mint
Lime - Mojito, Pure Peppermint
Chai, Dark Chocolate, Vanilla, Earl Grey, Camommile
Plain, Vanilla, Red Berry, Spice Plum
Page 10
Brand
Vitax
Joekels
Grand Tea
Jemca
Remarks
Vitax has ~16% share of the fruit & herbal tea market in Poland
Offers products under the name 'Laager", 2nd largest brand in South Africa
Offers flavoured, green and iced tea variants.
Market Leader with 20.6% volume share, Available in Black, Green and Fruit &
Herbal teas
FY13E
5291.4
11.0%
2273.3
43.0%
1399.7
26.5%
788.3
14.9%
711.9
13.5%
FY14E
5639.7
6.6%
2602.5
46.1%
1427.7
25.3%
846.4
15.0%
763.2
13.5%
FY15E
6117.7
8.5%
2908.6
47.5%
1505.2
24.6%
896.4
14.7%
807.4
13.2%
(| crore)
FY16E
6588.0
7.7%
3246.0
49.3%
1577.9
24.0%
923.3
14.0%
840.7
12.8%
CAGR FY13-16E
7.6%
12.6%
4.1%
5.4%
5.7%
Page 11
Grand
relaunched
Acquired
Grand in
Russia
1299.3
Acquired
EOC in USA
1903.3
1706.4
895.4
1423.3
1012.5
664.8
157.5
134.4
FY05
FY06
0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Acquired/Owned
Acquired
Year
Sept, 2009
Country
Russia
Acquired
Owned
Owned
Owned
July, 2006
NA
NA
NA
USA
India, Russia and Middle East
India
India (South)
Owned
Owned
Owned
NA
NA
NA
Value
NA
$220 million
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Remarks
Market Leader in Russia with Grand Prado, Grand Gold & Grand Cocoa
Third largest coffee brand by volume in the US
The brand is largely exported to Middle East countries
100% pure filter coffee
Chain of 35 outlets offering consumers in Tamil Nadu & other states
fresh, roast and ground coffee
It is a popular brand sold largely in South India
Pure instant coffee
India's No. 3 Coffee Chicory Brand
Page 12
675.9
802.0
139.1
237.9
307.9
375.9
961.2
914.5
1040.5
1099.3
218.1
210.5
199.1
270.8
358.1
428.0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
EOC
Others
Tata Coffee
Tata Coffee (TCL) is a 58% subsidiary of Tata Global Beverages. TCL is the
largest integrated coffee player in India and the third largest exporter of
instant coffee. The company produces ~10000 MT of both Arabica as well
as Robusta coffee through its 19 coffee estates (~8000 hectares) in South
India. TCLs revenues by FY13 (| 428 crore) have witnessed a CAGR of
14.4% in FY08-13. We expect this to increase to | 770.8 crore by FY16E
with growth at 21.7% CAGR in FY13-16E. The higher revenues would be
supported by higher curing operations as well as supply to Starbucks
stores across India (currently) and Starbucks stores across Asia (in future).
Apart from coffee, TCL is also engaged in the plantation of tea and other
agricultural products (cardamom and pepper). Revenues from these
stood at | 146.7 crore (25.5% of FY13 revenues). Going ahead, we expect
revenues from these products to grow at a modest CAGR of 7.4% (FY1316E) against 11.7% (FY08-13) as the companys focus would remain on its
dominant business, coffee.
Exhibit 25: TCLs revenues from coffee (LHS) and standalone revenues (LHS) in | crore
1000
800
~60% increase in
instant coffee
volumes
914
777
600
400
200
301
218
312
211
327
199
401
271
489
358
574
428
653
771
638
521
0
FY08
-200
Dip in sales
volumes
FY09
FY10
FY11
Coffee Revenues-Std
FY12
FY13
TCL Standalone
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Page 13
Following the holding companys JV with Starbucks Inc, US, TCL has set
up a special roasting facility in Kushalnagar (~2000 MT operational since
FY13) to cater exclusively to the requirements of the Tata Starbucks
stores setup across the country and South East Asia. The roastery would
be utilising the beans produced in TCLs estates. We believe this pact
would provide incremental sales volume as well as better realisation,
going ahead. TCL is also expanding its Theni facility in Tamil Nadu for
instant coffee to meet the higher export demand.
Further, TCL expanded its portfolio outside India and entered the US
market through the acquisition of Eight O Clock Coffee in July, 2006.
Eight O Clock Coffee
Eight O Clock Coffee (EOC) was acquired by TGBL, though its subsidiary
TCL in July, 2006 extending the companys coffee portfolio to the
international branded coffee market.
EOC is the fourth largest coffee brand by volume in the US with sales of
| 1099.3 crore (FY13). Revenues have grown at a CAGR of 10.2% in FY0813 led largely by prices. Volume growth has remained grim on the back of
slowing coffee consumption in the US. Going ahead, we expect revenue
growth in EOC to moderate to 4.2% CAGR in FY13-16E as we believe
further increase in prices would be tough and could impact volume
growth.
In FY11, sales were impacted significantly by a substantial increase in
prices by the company, which impacted volume growth. The price
increase was on the back of an increase in Arabica coffee prices (~36%
YoY), the key raw material. As coffee prices started declining from FY12
onwards, sales growth has revived for EOC.
Exhibit 26: EOC sales (| crore)
1500
1200
900
600
961.2
802.0
25
1040.5
1099.3
1154.2
1200.4
1242.4
20
914.5
15
675.9
600
10
300
500
400
300
0
Mar-12
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-09
Mar-08
200
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY12
FY13
-300
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
-5
EOC
Source: Bloomberg
1 USD = 2.2991 Brazilian Real; 1 USD = 61.1 INR
FY11
% Increase
Page 14
Formats
Original, Colombian, French Roast, Italian Dark Roast
Reduced Caffeine
EOC Metabolism Boost
Flavours
Hazel Nut, French Vanilla
& Mocha
With the US coffee market moving towards the single serve PODS
consumption (~18% of US coffee market is constituted by PODS), EOC
tied up with Keurig in FY12 and launched EOC K-cups version. In spite of
K-cups contributing positively to the brands growth, EOC has been
witnessing an overall stress in volume growth (adjusting with our without
PODS sales) keeping the revenue growth lower at 5.7% in FY13. Going
ahead, though the company plans to invest significantly behind its brands
and launch more variants in the coffee segment, we estimate moderate
sales growth of 4.2% CAGR FY13-16E, as we believe EOC does not have
pricing power in the US coffee market. Further, with any uptick in coffee
prices, passing on the higher input cost through prices impacts EOCs
volume growth. Therefore, driven by the high vulnerability to coffee
prices we remain wary of EOCs growth.
Exhibit 28: Facts about US coffee consumption
$59 billion
87%
13%
30%
20%
6.22
22044
22000
21500
21000
21652
21783
21436
21033
20998
20667
20500
20000
19500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: http://blog.euromonitor.com/2012/06/us-pod-coffee-market-poised-for-further-expansion.html,
ICICIdirect.com Research
The US is the largest coffee consuming nation with ~83% of the adults
drinking coffee (CY12). Though the overall consumption in the US
remains high, growth in consumption is being driven by gourmet coffee
beverages. Traditional coffee consumption has declined from 56% (CY11)
to 49% (CY12). Hence, with EOCs portfolio largely consisting of premium
coffee, we believe value growth would remain at ~4% CAGR in FY13-16E.
However, a revival in volume growth could only come through market
share gains, which would involve huge expenditure behind the brands
keeping the companys margins from EOC under stress.
Page 15
Grand
Grand is the fourth largest player in the Russian instant coffee market. It
was acquired by TGBL in September, 2008. Grand coffee was re-launched
in 2010 by introducing large amount of flavours and varieties.
Russia is relatively a smaller market for TGBL (I-direct estimate: ~| 230
crore coffee revenues in FY13) currently. The annual per capita coffee
consumption in Russia is very low at 0.7 kg compared to ~6 kg in
Germany and ~7 kg in the US. However, coffee consumption in Russia is
gaining strength albeit slowly. We believe that in order to establish itself
in the under penetrated Russian market, TGBL needs to improve its
presence in Russia and achieve greater market share to accelerate its
revenues.
Hence, we believe TGBLs coffee revenue growth of 15.7% CAGR in FY1316E would be driven mostly by higher sales volume and realisation from
Indias plantation revenues (21.6% CAGR from FY13-16E). The growth in
the US coffee market, however, would remain modest at 4.2% CAGR in
FY13-16E and would be largely driven by increasing specialty coffee sales
growth in traditional coffee remaining strained.
Exhibit 30: TGBL's coffee revenues (| crore)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
237.9
307.9
375.9
914.5
1040.5
1099.3
270.8
358.1
FY11
FY12
828.3
880.8
931.7
1154.2
1200.4
1242.4
428.0
521.0
638.0
770.8
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
Coffee Revenues-Std
EOC
Others
Page 16
Brand
Himalaya
Type of Water
Mineral Water
Geography
India
Remarks
TGBL has acquired the brand by acquiring
50.07% stake in Mount Everest Mineral
Water Limited
Fortified Water
India
Glucose Water
India
Activate
Vitamin Water
USA
CAGR 19%
2000
1000
1500
1800
FY08
FY09
2200
2400
FY10
FY11
3000
0
FY12
35
CAGR
18.2%
30
25
36.4
20
15
22.8
22.0
20.1
21.2
18.9
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
22.0
24.8
30.0
10
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
Apart from the mineral water segment, TGBL has entered the fortified
water segment in FY13 through the launch of Tata Water Plus and Tata
Gluco Plus. The company has launched these only in South Indian
markets (Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh) currently and is yet to launch it
nationally. We believe the entry of TGBL into the functional water
segment would yield results at a very slow pace as the segment is a niche
concept and very small in India currently.
Page 17
Page 18
EOC
Grand
Tata Tea
Tata Waters
New Launchs
Blend of both
Estate Selection
Green Tea Plus
Herbal mocktails
Tetley Tassimo single serve discs
Chai Latte
Specialty Tea
Tata Tea Gold
Green Tea Mango and Passion Fruit
k-cups
Chocolate mint
Grand Melange
Grand Extra
Veda
Tata Water Plus
Tata Gluco Plus
Geography
Uk
UK
Canada
Canada
Canada
Australia
Australia
Pakistan
Across the globe
USA
USA
Russia
Russia
India
India
India
Year
FY13
FY13
FY13
FY13
FY13
FY13
FY13
FY13
FY13
FY13
FY13
FY13
FY12
FY12
FY12
FY12
Page 19
Financials
Revenues to grow at higher CAGR of 12.0% in FY13-16E
Revenues have grown at a CAGR of 10.6% in FY08-13. We expect this to
increase to 12.0% in FY13-16E. The increase would be driven by changing
sales mix of tea (higher contribution of tea bags in domestic tea revenues,
increasing contribution of specialty teas in Canada & UK markets),
increasing innovations and launches in the premium tea categories,
higher coffee revenues from TCL and increasing revenues from joint
ventures. We estimate the tea revenues will grow at 7.6% CAGR in FY1316E compared to 9.2% in FY08-13. Coffee revenues are expected to
maintain a high growth rate of 15.7% CAGR (FY13-16E) compared to
16.3% CAGR (FY08-13).
Exhibit 36: Revenues (| crore) and revenue growth (YoY in %)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4367.1
4848.9
5783.9
5983.9
6552.8
7233.3
8624.0
9690.9
10808.1
25
20
15
10
4000
2000
0
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
Revenues
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
% increase
1400
1118.1
1200
1000
800
945.9
712.7
648.5
724.4
610.6
623.1
FY11
FY12
768.5
600
400
200
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
EBITDA (| crore)
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
FY16E
Page 20
1072.4
200
917.2
1000
800
250
1230.9
658.2
600
580.1
652.8
749.4
538.1
374.2
400
621.5
244.8
333.6
517.3
628.5
754.2
400.9
100
200
50
0
-200
150
FY08
-79.8
FY09
-29.8
FY10
FY11
PBIT
FY12
Adjusted PAT
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
Interest Cost
0.75
0.67
1
1
0.48
1
0
0
0
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
0
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
Page 21
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
RoE (adjusted)
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
RoCE
Exhibit 41: Return on capital employed from tea & coffee (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Tea
FY12
FY13
Coffee
Page 22
Page 23
Valuation
We have valued TGBL on a sum of parts (SOTP) valuation methodology
and arrived at a fair value of | 182/share. We have divided the overall
business into four sub parts, TGBL (standalone), Tata Coffee
(consolidated), Mount Everest Mineral Water and Tata Global (other
subsidiaries). With Tata Coffee and MEMW being listed subsidiaries in
India, we have valued them individually and assigned the contribution of
each proportionately to TGBLs share price.
Exhibit 42: SOTP Valuation
TGBL (Standalone)
Sales FY15E
Multiple
2914.8
2.0
Mcap
5829.6
Propotionate Mcap
5829.6
No. of Shares
61.8
Value/share
94.3
374.2
5.0
1870.8
125.1
Cash (FY15E)
15.4
Target Mcap
1761.1
1012.3
No. of Shares
61.8
Value/share
16.4
MEMW
Current Market Cap
458.9
Discount (%)
25%
Mcap (FY15E)
344.2
TGBL's propotionate
172.3
No. of shares
61.8
Value/share
2.8
4362.5
Multiple
Mcap
4798.7
Propotionate Mcap
4254.1
No. of Shares
61.8
Value/share
68.8
Target Price
182.2
Page 24
EV/EBITDA Valuation
Over the past eight years, TGBL has traded in the average range of 8-10x
two year forward EV/EBITDA multiple. At the CMP, it is trading at lower
band of its historic range at 8.6x FY15E EBITDA/share. At the target price
of | 182, the two-year forward multiple would be 10.2x FY15E
EBITDA/share. We believe the increase in multiple would be on account
of improving margins led by change in product mix in both tea and coffee
and reduction in the losses from the JV businesses.
EV
10x
8x
6x
Apr-13
Dec-12
Aug-12
Apr-12
Dec-11
Aug-11
Apr-11
Dec-10
Aug-10
Apr-10
Dec-09
Aug-09
Apr-09
Dec-08
Aug-08
Apr-08
Dec-07
Aug-07
Apr-07
Dec-06
Aug-06
Apr-06
Dec-05
Aug-05
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Apr-05
EV (Rs Cr)
4x
Close (|)
0.8x
1x
1.2x
Apr-13
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Oct-06
Apr-06
Oct-05
Apr-05
1.4x
Page 25
Price/earnings valuation
At the CMP of |146, the stock is trading at 16.4x its FY15E and 14.6x its
FY16E EPS of | 8.9 and | 10, respectively. Historically, the stock has
traded in the range of 12-18x its two-year forward earnings. At the
assigned target price of | 182, the two year forward P/E multiple would be
18.2x FY15E EPS.
Exhibit 45: Price/earnings ratio (two years forward)
200
160
120
80
40
Close (|)
12x
14x
16x
Apr-13
Dec-12
Aug-12
Apr-12
Dec-11
Aug-11
Apr-11
Dec-10
Aug-10
Apr-10
Dec-09
Aug-09
Apr-09
Dec-08
Aug-08
Apr-08
18x
Page 26
Tables
Exhibit 46: Profit & Loss Account (Consolidated)
(| Crore)
(Year-end March)
Net Sales
Other Operating Income
Total Operating Income
FY12
6,551.1
89.0
6,640.0
FY13
7,232.4
118.6
7,351.0
FY14E
8,375.5
122.9
8,498.4
FY15E
9,276.6
126.2
9,402.7
FY16E
10,163.4
128.6
10,292.0
3,321.3
79.6
124.5
681.3
1,217.9
293.0
299.3
6,017.0
623.1
70.4
94.5
647.2
96.1
(22.5)
573.6
141.7
431.9
60.7
371.3
339.2
5.5
3,567.0
85.2
136.2
740.1
1,387.1
304.9
361.9
6,582.5
768.5
84.4
86.0
770.1
105.1
28.2
636.8
164.1
472.7
72.3
400.4
393.7
6.4
4,050.8
100.5
146.6
845.9
1,608.1
376.9
427.2
7,556.0
942.4
85.0
85.3
942.7
117.2
825.6
247.7
577.9
72.3
505.6
479.3
7.8
4,469.6
104.4
167.0
941.6
1,734.7
440.6
482.4
8,340.3
1,062.4
91.6
88.4
1,059.1
136.3
922.8
276.8
646.0
72.3
573.7
548.7
8.9
4,927.4
111.8
167.7
1,041.7
1,809.1
508.2
538.7
9,104.6
1,187.4
97.3
90.2
1,180.4
156.5
1,024.0
307.2
716.8
72.3
644.5
620.7
10.0
Page 27
FY12
61.8
4,503.9
4,565.8
739.3
739.3
65.7
1,065.9
155.8
174.0
6,766.5
FY13
61.8
4,748.3
4,810.2
672.7
672.7
54.0
813.9
92.4
203.2
6,646.3
FY14E
61.8
5,070.1
5,131.9
772.7
772.7
54.0
886.2
92.4
203.2
7,140.4
FY15E
61.8
5,461.2
5,523.1
872.7
872.7
54.0
958.5
92.4
203.2
7,703.8
FY16E
61.8
5,924.4
5,986.3
972.7
972.7
54.0
1,030.8
92.4
203.2
8,339.3
5,233.9
988.0
4,246.0
49.2
4,295.1
473.5
5,508.1
1,069.0
4,439.1
90.7
4,529.7
576.0
5,858.1
1,186.2
4,671.9
150.2
4,822.1
626.0
6,058.1
1,322.5
4,735.6
100.2
4,835.7
676.0
6,258.1
1,478.9
4,779.1
100.2
4,879.3
726.0
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Other Current Assets
Cash
Current Investments
Total Current Assets
1,160.7
651.8
734.4
17.1
731.6
93.0
3,388.6
-
1,382.9
712.9
792.4
21.3
693.0
1.9
3,604.5
-
1,528.3
821.5
795.7
25.1
429.2
1.7
3,601.4
-
1,702.8
914.9
881.3
27.8
709.2
1.9
4,238.0
-
1,893.5
1,002.4
965.5
30.5
1,016.6
2.0
4,910.5
-
Creditors
Provisions
ST Borrowings
Other CL
Total Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
LT Loans & Advances
Other Non CA
Total Assets
805.2
263.6
148.9
294.6
1,512.3
1,876.3
88.3
33.3
6,766.5
803.4
310.0
344.1
690.2
2,147.6
1,456.9
83.6
6,646.3
917.9
321.3
418.8
335.0
1,992.9
1,608.5
83.8
7,140.4
965.8
338.0
463.8
371.1
2,138.7
2,099.3
92.8
7,703.8
1,002.4
350.8
467.5
457.4
2,278.1
2,632.4
101.6
8,339.3
Page 28
FY12
356.2
96.1
70.4
522.7
(91.1)
(78.6)
(108.0)
(3.6)
13.5
(267.7)
(24.8)
3.9
(149.6)
22.5
(148.1)
106.9
2.8
(29.1)
6.4
(588.7)
2.0
(42.2)
(8.2)
85.7
(571.3)
0.1
FY13
372.8
105.1
84.4
562.3
(222.2)
(61.1)
(58.1)
(4.2)
91.1
(254.5)
(1.9)
46.4
195.2
395.6
635.3
943.1
4.6
33.3
(102.5)
(339.7)
(11.8)
(252.0)
(63.4)
29.2
(702.2)
-
FY14E
479.3
117.2
85.0
681.5
(145.3)
(108.6)
(3.3)
(3.8)
0.2
(260.7)
114.5
11.3
74.6
(355.1)
(154.7)
266.0
(0.1)
(50.0)
(409.5)
72.3
(387.3)
-
FY15E
548.7
136.3
91.6
776.7
(174.6)
(93.5)
(85.6)
(2.7)
(0.2)
(356.5)
47.9
16.8
45.1
36.0
145.8
565.9
(9.0)
(50.0)
(150.0)
72.3
(136.7)
-
FY16E
620.7
156.5
97.3
874.5
(190.6)
(87.5)
(84.2)
(2.7)
(0.2)
(365.2)
36.6
12.8
3.7
86.3
139.4
648.7
(8.9)
(50.0)
(200.0)
72.3
(186.6)
-
16.5
(157.0)
(70.4)
7.1
(2.3)
(70.7)
465.1
10.2
198.6
(66.6)
(157.5)
(84.4)
0.3
1.4
(0.3)
(27.0)
30.9
23.8
(279.5)
100.0
(157.6)
(85.0)
(142.6)
100.0
(157.6)
(91.6)
(149.2)
100.0
(157.6)
(97.3)
(154.8)
(265.7)
997.3
731.6
(38.6)
731.6
693.0
(263.8)
693.0
429.2
280.0
429.2
709.2
307.3
709.2
1,016.6
Page 29
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
5.8
7.3
11.8
105.9
10.1
2.1
6.0
7.7
11.2
117.0
12.4
2.1
7.8
9.6
6.9
135.4
15.2
2.2
8.9
11.1
11.5
150.0
17.2
2.2
10.0
12.6
16.4
164.4
19.2
2.2
Operating Ratios
EBITDA / Total Operating Income
PAT / Net Sales
9.4
5.4
10.5
5.2
11.1
5.7
11.3
5.9
11.5
6.1
Return Ratios
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
RoA
7.8
8.3
8.9
5.3
7.7
10.5
11.3
5.6
9.3
12.2
12.5
6.7
9.9
12.6
13.4
7.1
10.4
12.9
14.3
7.4
25.3
30.0
1.4
1.6
14.5
1.4
1.5
24.2
28.7
1.2
1.5
11.7
1.2
1.5
18.8
22.3
1.1
1.3
9.9
1.1
1.5
16.5
19.5
1.0
1.2
8.7
1.0
1.5
14.5
17.2
0.9
1.1
7.6
0.9
1.5
0.2
7.5
2.2
1.5
-
0.1
7.9
1.7
1.0
-
0.2
9.7
1.8
1.0
-
0.2
10.1
2.0
1.2
-
0.2
10.6
2.2
1.3
-
Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover
Debtors Turnover Ratio
1.0
10.1
1.1
10.1
1.2
10.2
1.2
10.1
1.3
10.1
8.1
5.9
9.0
5.7
9.1
5.8
9.6
5.7
10.1
5.7
Valuation Ratios
P/E
Target P/E
Market Cap / Sales
Target Market Cap / Sales
EV / EBITDA
EV / Net Sales
Dividend yield
Solvency Ratios
Debt / Equity
Interest coverage
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Page 30
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading
underwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of
companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities
generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts
cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without
prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and
employees (ICICI Securities and affiliates) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities
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