Probabilistic Analysis of Radial Distribution Network

Performance with Varying Wind Speed Levels

Sooraj Narayan K, Ashwani Kumar
Department of Electrical Engineering
NIT Kurukshetra
Haryana, India
soorajn14@gmail.com, ashwa_ks@yahoo.co.in
AbstractThis paper presents an analysis of radial distribution
network considering the probabilistic modeling of loads,
substation voltage and integrated wind energy source. The
impacts on the distribution network for varying wind speed levels
are studied. The wind power source is placed on the most
optimum buses obtained from stability index calculations. A total
of five scenarios for different wind speed levels are studied in this
paper. The impact of wind power output on power loss reduction
and voltage profile improvement are observed. The results are
analyzed for various wind speed levels on an IEEE 33 bus radial
distribution system.
KeywordsRadial
Distribution
Network,
Probabilistic
Modelling, Wind Speed Levels, Stability Index, Power Loss
Reduction, Voltage profile Improvement.

I. INTRODUCTION
Due to recent advances in deregulation and the ever
increasing costs of power transmission, Distributed Generation
(DG) is rapidly emerging as an alternative to Centralized
Power Generation [1]. The inexhaustible nature of the
renewable energy sources, namely wind and PV based DGs,
have led them to be employed more and more for localized
power generation. Due to the intermittency of wind and PV
sources, integration of these DGs into the distribution network
poses some difficulties. The randomness of wind speed and
solar insolation causes the output of these generation sources to
vary. Analytical methods have been used to model these
renewable resources as nondispatchable sources of power [2].
The probabilistic approach of modeling the renewable sources
has been applied for various stages of planning [3].
Deterministic approaches to carry out distribution load flow
have been incorporated using different methodologies in the
past [4]. Although these methods provided accurate results,
they are based on the assumption of the steady state nature of
the radial distribution system. A more realistic method is bound
to take into consideration the uncertainty of various random
variables within the system. The load and the integrated
generation sources are generally considered as random
variables in the probabilistic load flow calculations.
Probabilistic load flow using a two-point estimate method
was used to analyze a distribution system considering wind
generation in [5]. Probabilistic load flow using Monte Carlo
Simulation was used in [6] to assess the voltage quality of a

distribution system with distributed generation. Stochastic

approaches were used in [7] to investigate network constraints
in a power system with distributed generation. A fast voltage
assessment method using probabilistic load flow for
distribution networks with wind power generation was
investigated in [8]. This paper used Latin Hypercube sampling
(LHS) to generate wind samples. A new load flow algorithm
using Monte Carlo simulation was proposed in [9] to
investigate distribution system performance under DG
penetration. A new probabilistic load flow method was
proposed based on voltage drop calculation for distribution
systems with wind power in [10]. In [11], integration of wind
power and electric vehicles were both considered to carry out a
constrained probabilistic load flow of distribution systems.
This paper first incorporates the Monte Carlo Simulation
(MCS) method to carry out probabilistic load flow with the
substation voltage and load power demands assumed to be
random variables. A sample site is selected and a wind power
source is integrated into selected nodes of the radial system.
Then, the impacts of wind power addition on the test system
are analyzed by considering various power outputs of wind
turbine. The power outputs vary according to the wind speed
and the probability of occurrence of that wind speed level.
The rest of the paper is as follows: Section II discusses the
modeling of load power demands, substation voltages and the
wind energy source. Section III discusses two stability index
based methods for finding the optimum DG location. Section
IV deals with the load flow computation technique. A case study
was conducted for analyzing wind power integration impacts
on the radial distribution system in Section V. An IEEE 33
radial bus system was utilized for this paper. A program was
developed in MATLAB 7.1 for implementing the study. The
program was run on an Intel Core(TM) i7-3770 3.70 GHz
processor. The results are analyzed and discussed in detail.
II. PROBABILISTIC MODELLING
A. Load Modelling
The variability of load demands is chiefly because of
unscheduled outages, errors in measurement or unknown load
power values. The probabilistic nature of load at each bus in a
distribution system can be incorporated into load flow studies
by visualizing the loads as random variables distributed with a
variance about a mean value. In this paper, the load demands at

each bus are assumed to be random variables with Gaussian or

Normal distribution [12].
,

(1)

where, , is the active load demand at bus number and

, are the mean and standard deviation values of each load
power respectively.
,

distribution system [14]. In this paper, two stability indices

have been utilized to obtain the most optimum location for
wind turbine placement in the system.
A. Voltage Stability Index
The Voltage Stability Index (VSI) shown in Eq. (7) for
radial distribution systems was proposed by U.Emingolu and
M.H.Hocauglu in [15]. This index identifies the most voltage
sensitive bus in the system.

B. Substation Voltage Modelling

Similar to the load modeling, the substation voltage is also
assumed to be a random variable following normal distribution
[13].
(2)

is the substation bus voltage and , are the

where,
mean and standard deviation values of substation voltage
respectively.
C. Wind Power Source Modelling
The power output from a wind turbine is given by the
following equation [5].
0,
,

(3)

,
0,

Fig. 1. One line diagram of a two bus distribution system.

The bus with the least value of VSI is the most sensitive
bus and the DG is to be placed on that bus for voltage profile
improvement. This index is obtained from the two node
distribution system shown in Fig.1.
2

| |

(7)

B. Power Stability Index

The Power Stability Index (VSI) shown in Eq. (8) for radial
distribution systems was proposed by M.M. Aman, G.B.
Jasmon, H.M. Mokhlis and A.H.A. Bakar in [16]. This index
was developed considering stable node voltages.

where,
is the power output of wind turbine in MW, is
is the cut-in speed of the wind
the wind velocity in m/s,
turbine in m/s,
is the cut-out speed of the wind turbine in
is the rated speed of the wind turbine in m/s,
is the
m/s,
rated power output of the wind turbine in MW,
and

Fig. 2. One line diagram of a two bus distribution system with active power
support.

Wind energy source is essentially an intermittent source of

power. The uncertainty of wind turbine output at any location
mainly arises due to the variation in wind speed and air density.
Since wind speed varies frequently, it is considered to be a
random variable in the radial power flow calculation. There are
mainly two probability distribution functions used to model
wind speed, namely, Weibull and Rayleigh probability
distribution functions. In this paper, the Weibull distribution
has been used to sample wind speed. The Weibull distribution
function is a two parameter function which is used to describe
wind speed mathematically as:

The index value is calculated for every line

in the
system. For any line
having the highest PSI value, the DG
is to be placed on the
bus of the system. This index is
obtained from the two bus distribution system with active
power support shown in Fig. 2.
(8)

| |

where, =

.
IV. PROBABILISTIC LOAD FLOW

,0
where, is the wind speed,
is the scale parameter [12].

(4)

is the shape parameter and

III. OPTIMUM LOCATION FOR WIND TURBINE PLACEMENT

Stability based indices have been used in the recent past to
obtain the optimum location for placing the DGs in the

The implementation of load flow procedure is carried out

in this paper by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method.
A large number of wind samples which are Weibull
distributed can be produced using MCS. Since the relationship
between wind speed and power production is known from Eq.
(3), a large number of power samples can also be obtained.
Then, the wind speed is divided into various levels and power
outputs of each level are obtained. A total of five scenarios are

applied to the test system. Each scenario is applied to the

candidate nodes obtained from VSI and PSI calculations and
the voltage and power loss values are saved. The number of
MCS samples is taken equal to 15000. Fig. 3 shows the
flowchart for wind speed sampling and leveling. Fig 4 shows
the flowchart for probabilistic load flow under various wind
speed levels. The nodal voltages and branch power losses are
calculated every time the loop runs. After running the loop for
15000 times, the mean values of nodal voltages and branch
power losses are saved and compared.
START

A. Probabilistic load flow without wind power integration

A probabilistic load flow using MCS is conducted on the
test system considering load and substation voltage as random
variables. The number of samples for MCS based load flow is
set to 15000. The data values of load at each load bus are
assumed to be their respective mean values. A standard
deviation of 10% is set for each load bus. The substation
voltage mean value is assumed to be 1.0 pu. The standard
deviation of substation voltage model is set to 1.5%. Fig. 5
shows the comparison of results obtained from Probabilistic
Load flow (PLF) and Deterministic Load Flow (DLF). The
results are in close approximation with the results obtained
from DLF computation [17].

Wind speed sampling using Weibull

distribution

1.05
DLF

Obtain wind speed levels: Level 0, Level 1,

Level 2, Level 3, Level 4 and Level 5
Obtain power output of each level

Voltage (pu)

PLF
0.95
0.9
0.85
1

STOP

Fig. 3. Wind speed sampling and leveling.

START
For 15,000 samples
Read static network line data, load data and
wind speed parameters

Update static load data with probabilistic

load data

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33

Bus number
Fig. 5. Voltage profile for DLF and PLF.

B. Optimum Bus For Wind Turbine Placement

For the test system in consideration, VSI and PSI values are
calculated for zero wind power generation. Fig. 6 shows the
variation of VSI values with bus number. The lowest VSI value
of 0.66804233 is obtained for bus number 18. Similarly, Fig. 7
shows the variation of PSI values with branch number. The
highest PSI value of 0.01600353 is obtained for branch number
24, indicating that the DG should be placed at bus number 25.
Thus the two candidate nodes for wind turbine placement in
this study are node number 18 and 25.
1.2
1

Obtain candidate nodes for wind turbine

placement using VSI and PSI

0.8
0.6

VSIvalue

Probabilistic substation voltage modeling

Subtract wind power outputs for each level

from the load power of the candidate nodes

0.4
0.2
0
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Bus number

Run Deterministic Load Flow

Fig. 6. VSI value for each bus.

STOP

V. SIMULATION CASE STUDIES AND RESULTS

The studies were conducted on an IEEE 33 bus radial
distribution test system [17]. The base power of the system is
100 MVA and the base voltage is 12.66 KV. The total
connected active power load is 3.72 MW and reactive power
load is 2.30 MVAR.

0.02
0.015

PSI value

Fig. 4. Probabilistic load flow computation.

0.01

0.005
0
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Branch number

Fig. 7. PSI value for each branch.

C. Levels of wind speed

For the selected wind turbine with parameeters
3 m/s,
=11.5 m/s,
=20 m/s and =2.0 MW [188], and for the site
with Weibull parameters =1.75 and =8.78 [12], wind speed
samples are produced using MCS accordding to Weibull
distribution. Since the value of shape parameteer is less than 2,
Weibull distribution is selected over Rayleighh distribution for
wind speed sampling [19]. From Equation 33, power samples
are also produced. The number of MCS sam
mples is taken as
15000. Fig. 8 shows the histogram of wind speed and Fig. 9
shows the histogram of power output for the 2.0 MW turbine.

turbine is placed at bus 18 and bu

us 25 and a comparison of
voltage profile improvement and power loss reduction is
carried out for both the cases.
1) Power Loss Reduction: Table II summarizes the impacts
of various wind power outputs on active and reactive power
s
the variation of real
losses of the test system. Fig. 10 shows
power losses on each branch with various wind speed levels
for the wind turbine placed at bus 18. Similarly, Fig. 11 shows
n each branch with various
the variation of real power losses on
wind speed levels for the wind turbiine placed at bus 25.
TABLE I. POWER OUTPUT OF TURBIINE FOR DIFFERENT WIND
SPEED LEVE
ELS
Level
0
1
2
3
4
5

Fig. 8. Histogram of wind speed of the 2 MW turbine.

Speed
Range
(m/s)
0-3
3-5
5-8
8-11.5
11.5-15
15-20

Mean
Power
Output
(MW)
0
0.2415
0.8148
1.5573
2.0000
2.0000

Percenttage
of Ratted
Poweer
(%)
0
12.074
46
40.738
88
77.863
30
100.00
000
100.00
000

Probability
of
occurrence
0.1422
0.1749
0.2692
0.1207
0.2269
0.0622

Actual
Power
Output
(MW)
0
0.0422
0.2193
0.3534
0.2413
0.1324

As observed from table II, thee reduction in real power

losses and reactive power losses are more pronounced when the
wind turbine is placed at bus 18 thaan when it is placed at bus
number 25. Also, the maximum po
ower loss reduction occurs
for wind speed level 3 in both the caases.

The 15000 wind speed samples are clustereed into five levels
of wind speeds. Hence, the power outputs corresponding to
these wind speeds are also clustered accordinng to wind speed
levels. The mean value of power output of each wind speed
level is calculated. Then, the probability of occcurrence of every
wind speed level is calculated by Eq. (9).
(9)
is the probability of occurrennce of wind speed
where,
level ,
is the number of wind speed sampples in level and
is the total number of wind speed sam
mples. The mean
power output of each wind level is multiplied bby the probability
of occurrence of that level to get that actual wiind turbine output
for that level. Table I summarizes these finddings. Level 0 in
table I corresponds to zero output power from
m the wind turbine
as the wind speed is below the cut-in speed of the turbine.
D. Wind Turbine Integration Impacts
The wind turbine power output essentiaally appears as a
negative load in the distribution system. Thhe five scenarios
from Level 1 to Level 5 are individually appplied on the test
system to analyze the impacts of wind pow
wer integration on
radial distribution systems. The effects are obbserved when the

It is observed that both power loss reduction and voltage

profile enhancement is better when the wind turbine is placed
at bus 18 compared to bus 25.
60
Real power loss(KW)

Fig. 9. Histogram of power output of the 2 MW turbine.

2) Voltage Profile Improvement: Fig. 12 shows the voltage

profile of the test system for variou
us wind speed levels when
the turbine is placed at bus 18. Sim
milarly, Fig. 13 shows the
voltage profile of the test system forr various wind speed levels
when the turbine is placed at bus 25
5. From Fig. 12 and Fig. 13,
it is observed that more voltagee profile improvement is
achieved when the wind turbine iss placed at bus 18. This is
also depicted in Fig. 14. For the win
nd turbine placed at bus 25,
there is very little improvement in voltage profile. For the
d speed Level 3 is found to
wind turbine placed at bus 18, wind
achieve the maximum voltage profille improvement.

Level 0

40

Level 1
Level 2

20

Level 3
0

Level 4
1 4
7 10
13 16
19 22
25 28
31
Branch number

Level 5

Fig. 10. Variation of real power losses on

n each branch with various wind
speed levels for the wind turbine placed at bu
us 18.

Level 0
40

Level 1

20

Level 2
Level3

0
1 4
7 10
13 16

Level4
19 22

Branch number

Level 5
25 28

31

RIOUS LEVELS OF
TABLE II. POWER LOSS REDUCTION FOR VAR
WIND SPEED

Voltage(pu)

Wind turbine placed at

number 25
bus n

Level

Total real
power loss
(KW)

Total
reactive
power loss
(KVAR)

Total reall
power losss
(KW)

Total
reactive
power loss
(KVAR)

0
1
2
3
4
5

211.3233
204.5621
180.6686
167.0735
178.1824
191.5119

143.2709
138.2938
121.0684
111.7007
119.3225
128.8009

211.3233
209.36322
201.49677
196.37622
200.60766
205.1983

143.2709
142.0644
137.2652
134.221
136.7312
139.5084

1.02
1
0.98
0.96
0.94
0.92
0.9
0.88
0.86
0.84

Wind turbine at
bus number 18
Wind turbine at
bus number 25

1.02
1
0.98
0.96
0.94
0.92
0.9
0.88
0.86
0.84

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17
7 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Bus nuumber

Fig. 11. Variation of real power losses on each brancch with various wind
speed levels for the wind turbine placed at bus 25.

Wind turbine placed at

bus number 18

Voltage (pu)

Real power loss(KW)

60

Level 0
Level 1
Level2
Level 3
Level 4

Fig. 14. Comparison of voltage profiles between wind turbine placement at

bus 18 and bus 25 for level 3.

The Cumulative Distribution Fu

unction (CDF) plots shown
in Fig. 15 and Fig. 16 show the imp
provement in voltage profile
at the bus at which the wind turbine is placed. The CDF plots
ne, the voltage at the bus is
show that on placing the wind turbin
nearer to unity than it was before, reeferring to an improvement
in voltage profile. Fig. 17 and Fig. 18 shows the histogram of
voltage magnitude at bus 18 and buss 25 for Level 3 wind speed
respectively.

Fig. 15. CDF plot for level 0 and 3 for the wiind turbine placed at bus 18.

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Bus number

Voltage (pu)

Fig. 12. Voltage profile of the test system with various w

wind speed levels for
the wind turbine placed at bus 18.
1.02
1
0.98
0.96
0.94
0.92
0.9
0.88
0.86
0.84

Level 0
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 255 27 29 31 33
Bus number
wind speed levels for
Fig. 13. Voltage profile of the test system with various w
the wind turbine placed at bus 25.

Fig. 16. CDF plot for level 0 and 3 for the wiind turbine placed at bus 25.

Fig. 17. Histogram of voltage magnitude att bus number 18 for level 3 wind
speed.

Fig. 18. Histogram of voltage magnitude at bus number 25 for level 3 wind
speed.

VI. CONCLUSIONS
This paper presented an analysis of probabilistic load flow
of radial distribution systems with wind power integration. The
impacts of various levels of wind speed on the voltage profile
and the power loss reduction on the test system was studied.
The study was conducted on a probabilistic perspective
considering the power system components as random variables.
Two stability index based methods were used to determine the
location for wind turbine placement, and a comparison between
the two was made based on reduced power losses and voltage
profile improvement. It was observed that the placement of the
wind power source on the radial distribution system results in
reduced power losses along with significant voltage profile
improvement.
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