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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS AND


PLANNING OF ABBOTTABAD
8TH SEMESTER

M.Zeshan#01, Abdul Majid#52, Aimal khan#49, haseeb


Ahmed#48, Asim MIsbah#20, Sameera hafiz#44

[URBAN DESIGN][Sir Shahid Mansoor]


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Contents
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS AND PLANNING OF ABBOTTABAD...................................................................0
Contents............................................................................................................................................................ 1
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS AND PLANNING OF ABBOTTABAD..............................................................................2
Introduction and background:............................................................................................................................2
Literature review................................................................................................................................................ 3
The use of demographic trends and long-term population projections in public policy planning at EU,
national, regional and local level:................................................................................................................3
Problem Statement............................................................................................................................................ 6
Objectives.......................................................................................................................................................... 6
Methodology and procedure:............................................................................................................................. 7
Findings:............................................................................................................................................................. 8
Discussion:....................................................................................................................................................... 15
Conclusion:...................................................................................................................................................... 19
Recommendation/suggestions:........................................................................................................................19
References:...................................................................................................................................................... 20

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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS AND


PLANNING OF ABBOTTABAD
Introduction and background:
Demography is the study of statistical data of human population with respect to site, composition, and
changes occur during the time.
The application of spatial data and methods to demographic research has tended to lag that of other
disciplines.
Demography can be achieved by the analysis of following factors.

Fertility Rate

Mortality Rate

Migration Rate

The first two factors affect the rate of population but in the case of Abbottabad the large number of
population is increased by the third factor Migration rate.
This is because the first two factors changes the rate of population after the long period of time while the
third, migration rate is rapidly effecting the population of Abbottabad.
Demographic change is one of the most serious challenges for the planners. The aim of the report is to give
a broad overview of the complexity of the problems related to demographic change, paying special attention
to the planning of Abbottabad
Demographic changes, such as urbanization, ageing populations, and migration, have significant effects on
local development. The study examines the relationship between demographic changes and housing,
focusing on different local demographic situations and related housing and planning strategies
Basic equation to calculate the population rate:
Population Rate = Population + Natural increase + Net migration
With the passage of time the residential
zones expended and commercial
developments started in the core of
residential zones. Its impact was drastic, it
effected the traffic environment and
accessibility.
According to census of 1998 the population
of Abbottabad was 881,000 and the total
area covered by Abbottabad was 1967 /1969
sqkm.
But after the earthquake in 2005 the
migration started in a large number from the
neighboring effected areas like Swat,
Battagram, and other northern effected
http://www.erra.gov.pk/

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areas. And according to the 2008 survey of Abbottabad the number of population was increased to 1.5
million. Due to which the existing define zone pattern was dismissed.
In cantonment board area the civil development was started and on the peripheral areas of the Cantt area
urban sprawl was started. According to which the boundary limits was extended.
There are 3 law enforcement agencies to control the growth and needs of the population but no one knows
for sure to follow which one,

CBA

TMA

District Council.

Literature review
The use of demographic trends and long-term population projections in public policy
planning at EU, national, regional and local level:
Summary of results and recommendations
The principal aim of the study was to analyses how population projections are used as an instrument in
public policy at EU, national and sub-national levels. The study draws conclusions on how policy makers
could best benefit from demographic projections. In addition, the study points to demographic risks that
have received insufficient attention.

Main results
Population projections are widely used in various policy-making processes. Demographic forecasts have
created awareness of population ageing and resulted in changes in pension, health care, and other public
policies throughout the world. Demographic projections are indispensable in the design and implementation
of spatial (e.g. urban and housing) policies. In other domains, the role of projections varies.
The study reveals important differences in existing practices across different countries. This gives us the
opportunity to point out best practices.
The first result relates to the way the uncertainties of future demographics are taken into account.
Demographic projections are always uncertain and erroneous projections can lead to misleading or even
wrong policy decisions that may cause all kind of losses.
Research has increased understanding of demographic processes but unfortunately this has not improved
forecast accuracy. Therefore, good policies should be robust against a wide range of demographic futures.
A traditional way of handling uncertainty is to present alternative variants (say, high and low fertility) in
addition to a benchmark projection. One can then study a given policy problem (say the sustainability of a
pension system) under each. The problem is that, a priori, it is hard to determine what aspects of future
demographics should be varied and by how much. In some cases, the use of variants can even be harmful, if
they give a false impression that all relevant contingencies have been covered.
Because the alternatives rarely can be given a clear interpretation, they add little if any value to policymaking. It is our opinion that either the use of demographic variants of current form should be abandoned, or
they should be made into proper scenarios by providing storylines that can be substantiated by empirical
research. Another way is to create variants so that explicit probabilities can be attached to them. A third
alternative is to take the uncertainty explicitly into account by presenting stochastic population projections
(see Table 1 on page 12). One can then analyze the effects of a given policy under a realistic range of
different population paths.

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An important advantage with stochastic population projections is that they lead naturally to what we call a
strategy approach in policy-making. By this, we mean formulating policies so that they state what action will
be taken under a large number of possible states of the world that cover a realistic range of demographic
developments
Secondly, in several EU-25 countries there are serious deficiencies in the availability and quality of
demographic data. Currently the situation varies a lot between European countries, and the trend in many
countries seems to be for the worse. The key worries here concern migration data, and therefore also the
size of the working age population. But other parts of the demographic data system must also be kept in
mind, especially those concerning living arrangements and generational time series.
Thirdly, despite of some recent promising examples, the link between demographic forecasts and public
policy making is still weak. Producers of official population forecasts seem to have significant difficulties to
assess the demographic impact of existing or planned public policies. The users of population forecasts
complain that there is not enough information about the interaction between demographic trends,
socioeconomic factors and policy. Consequently, past and future demographics appear as less interesting
and less useful to policy makers. A more explicit discussion of the role of planned policies for future
demographics may contribute to a better understanding of what is feasible.

Summary of recommendations
We recommend that
-

The Commission should consider whether and how to expand the Nordic-type population register
system to the whole EU.

The Commission should fund both theoretical research and practical pilot efforts to see how
information in various administrative records, public and private, could be used to provide
information about migration, given the constraints posed by citizens right to privacy. Funds should
also be directed for research on how practices in estimating migration flows that are used elsewhere
could be adapted to the European setting.

The Commission should encourage participants in actual decision-making processes in different


member countries and policy domains to use stochastic population simulations and consider the
strategy approach.

The study of Turkeys population development should be given a high priority in the EU.

The methods and the case studies:


A decision theoretic framework:
We structured the analysis using a theoretic framework of decision-making, which is shortly described below
and more formally in the Appendix of the full report.
All demographic forecasts, current and past, together with actual demographic data, form a demographic
information set. It is used, together with relevant non-demographic information, in making predictions about
the consequences of policy alternatives for different issues (e.g. the pension system, the labour market, the
housing market). The set of such analysis forms the property set for a set of policy alternatives. A policy is
chosen by a decision maker from the set of policy alternatives. In making the choice, the decision maker
weighs the consequences of the alternatives and their likelihood, given the information set. Available
resources and time limits constrain the decision-making process.
The chosen policy determines, together with the actual demographics that materialize, the citizens welfare
in the future. Welfare should be the ultimate criterion for judging whether the whole decision making process
works well or not, and in particular, whether forecasts have appropriately been used. Although this criterion
is difficult to make operational explicitly, it is our opinion that it must be kept in mind when considering how

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population projections should be used in policy planning. It is not sufficient to look at the issues entirely from
the angles of those involved in the policy-making process.

The survey
We arranged a survey questionnaire to people who use the demographic data in policy planning. Among the
28 participants were members of the Working Group on Ageing of the Economic Policy Committee, other
country experts, one expert from the Commission of the EU and from the Congressional Budget Office of USA
and seven regional policy experts. Two thirds both from the EU-15 countries and from the new member
countries were represented as well as one accession country. The survey consisted of 47 questions. The
respondents typically use demographic forecasts of Eurostat and national statistical offices. The elements
used are mainly total population, population by sex and age and projection of the vital demographic
processes. The most often mentioned policy domains in which demographic data was used were public
pensions and care, labor market policy and education. In transition countries the menu of policy domains was
markedly shorter.
The survey provides a mixed picture of the weaknesses and strengths in the decision making process. The
following problems very likely restrict the set of policy alternatives considered in policy making and weaken
the quality of decisions made.
-

The amount of demographic information is in many countries clearly insufficient.

Quality of current data is a problem, especially concerning migration.

Uncertainty in population projections has been noted, but is largely unsolved or even neglected
issue.

The assumptions used by the producers of the projections have not been communicated to the users
well enough.

The users wanted to have more information about the interaction between demographic trends and
economic and other explanatory variables.

Deficiencies exist in receiving non-demographic data, such as health status.

Population projections in pension policy and public finance planning


The first case studies the use of demographic projections in pension policy and public finance planning in two
s policy planning but without effects to decisions. Stochastic population simulations have recently been
presented and discussed in Finland and to a lesser effect also in Lithuania, but it is too early to assess their
usefulness in practice, except by noting that they are a more demanding instrument than conventional
population projections. Arguments in favor and against the use of stochastic simulations are presented and
the strategy approach is discussed in the full (electronic) report.
We have also included a shorter report concerning the regulation of annuity markets, which are an important
part of any private pension system. In our view, the regulation of annuity markets (and the market for life
insurance in general) is a promising example of a policy area where stochastic population projections could
be highly useful.

Population projections in immigration policy


The second case study focuses on the use of demographic projections in the design and implementation of
immigration policies at the national level. The motivation is twofold.
Firstly, the huge geographical differences in living standards may cause new, large migration flows.
Secondly, the expected decline of working age population and the acceleration of population ageing may
lead to increasing numbers of labor migrants.

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The countries chosen for this case study, Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands, have different experiences
of and future needs for migration. In Germany, there seems to be no link between demographics and
immigration policies. The same appears to be hold for Spain as well, although that may be changing now. In
the Netherlands, in contrast, information on past and future demographic developments, especially
concerning population of non-Western origin, has been frequently and increasingly used for making migration
policy recommendations. There are also substantial differences in the availability of data concerning
migration and its impact on demographics. The German report mentions a specific case of missing research:
the impact of migration on the demographic structure of the population at the regional level is not well
researched.

Population projections in urban and regional policy


The huge variation in the age structure in different districts and the strong selectivity of migration with
respect to age highlights the need to build regional and local population forecasts. The third case study
reports on the use of population projections in the Helsinki region in Finland and in the design of spatial and
housing policies in the Netherlands.
Over- or underestimating future population change may lead to wrong decisions with respect to service
networks, land use plans or infrastructure. Omitting the information of population projections can also cause
non-optimal decisions of service network, and the case of the Helsinki region found evidence of that. The
report also notes that well-functioning administrative population registers in Nordic and several Central
European countries make it possible to produce reliable and sufficiently detailed population statistics.
However, there are major problems in the quality and availability of population statistics especially in new
EU-countries, especially the incomplete registration of outmigration.
The Dutch report describes the production and use of a comprehensive system of population and household
projections at a NUTS-5 level (over 400 municipalities) called PRIMOS. It covers the whole country, area by
area, and is consistent with national level forecasts. PRIMOS takes uncertainties explicitly into account in that
confidence intervals are included. It combines demographic projections with a model of the housing market
so that projected migration flows are consistent with housing supply. Recently, population projections have
been used intensively in the preparation of long-term strategies. It appears, however, that detailed
municipal-level information has not been used.

Problem Statement
Migration rate have affected the urban development pattern in Abbottabad. And have causes urban sprawl.

Objectives

To find out the drastic effect of migration on the urban development of Abbottabad.

To find out the population composition.

To find out the migration rate and settlement in different areas

To compare different town of Abbottabad with well-planned town in Abbottabad.

Methodology and procedure:

First we started with general overview of population and houses pattern in Abbottabad.

We visited statistical office of Abbottabad to get a brief overview form the officials about the
demography and planning of Abbottabad.

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In initial studies we took several trips to different areas of Abbottabad to study then and took
pictures to understand the pattern and behavior of the specific area or town.

Then we draw a map of the highway (silk route) and the areas on both sides of the silk route.

Then we categorized the dense and less populated areas on both sides of the road.

After that we have to select 3 different areas with different population pattern.

In the selection criteria for the 3 towns, we questioned our-self that which town is well
planned/constructed under the authority of CBA and which town is in its worst conditions in
infrastructure and construction techniques.

For well-planned town we selected Jinnahabad which is properly planned and is under the authority
of CBA.

For 2nd town we have select a Kaghan colony where population is rapidly increasing. And migration
rate is relatively more than other areas of Abbottabad.

For 3rd we have selected illyasi town which is situated on the peripheries of Abbottabad where
construction and infrastructure is not proper and the inhabitants are mostly local.

For comparison to understand the pattern of growth and the expansion of population we have to
select 50 houses from each town.

Then we studied the census report of Pakistan 2011 in which we studied


o

Planning and execution of decennial Population & Housing Census.

Processing and dissemination of data in the form of Census Reports.

Analysis of census data and demographic research.

Evaluation of census results.

Tabulation of data to meet specific demand of data users.

After that we organize a questionnaire which include 15 questions which have question about
number of peoples, family, kids, male, female, last occupant, no of sale of the house, kitchen
expenditure and leisure activities per house.

We have done sampling by Snowball method (Non-Probability random Sampling) because we were
trying to reach populations that are inaccessible or hard to find. We ask every person to recommend
others who they may know who also meet the criteria.

We selected 2 focus groups - from each among the 3 towns - of elders from each town, from which
we asked detail questions about their towns in which they spent their whole life.

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Findings:
Jinnah Abad:
The findings of jinnahabad from the questionnaire are explained by graphs and charts are as under:

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Kaghan colony:

The findings of kaghan colony from the questionnaire are explained by graphs and charts are as under:

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Illyasi town:
The findings of illyasi town from the questionnaire are explained by graphs and charts are as under:

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Discussion:
Jinnah Abad:
Town name: Jinahabad colony which is well planned and is under the authority of CBA.

How many school and college in the area?


o

How many religious building are there in the area?


o

There is only 1 garden for women and children.

Landscape of the area?


o

There are 7 religious buildings in this area.

How many parks and garden in the area?


o

In every 3rd street of this area the is a private public school .

There is only one ladies and children park in this area.

Female working center?


o

There is no female working center.

Discussion with two focus group of the area:


Q1.

What was the situation of population here before 10 years?


Ans(a). Before 10 years there was about 30% of the total population.
Ans(b). Before 10 years there was about 60% of the total population.

Q2.

How many people do you think are migrated here from different areas?
Ans(a). Almost all the people here are migrated from different places. Mostly from Punjab
Ans(b). Almost all the people here are migrated because of (swat operation & Earthquake )

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Q3.

What do think was the purpose of their migration?


Ans(a). The purpose of their migration was Education, Business, Job.
Ans(b). The purpose of their migration was safety, Environment, Climate, Business.

Q4.

How many female center are here and what difference does it make?
Ans(a). There is no female working center in this area.
Ans(b). There is no need any female centers.

Q5.

What do u think will be the population in 10 years?


Ans(a). There are too many population so there is no further space for houses.
Ans(b). There are too many population so there is no further space for houses.

Q6.

Is this town fit for further construction in the future?


Ans(a). Yes, this town fit for further construction because it is construction properly on Cantt zoning
rules.
Ans(b). Yes, this town fit for further construction but there is Mostly water problems.

Q7.

Is there any playground for kids and enough for them?


Ans(a). Yes there is only one family park.
Ans(b). Yes there is one ladies park but they need more for public recreational areas or open spaces.

Q8.

Is the infrastructure good enough explain?


Ans(a). Yes the infrastructure of the area is Good enough because it is properly planned.
Ans(b). Yes a little bit maintenance of infrastructure will be good.

Kaghan colony:
Town name: Kaghan colony

How many school and college in the area?


o

1: Iqra academy,

2: burn hall school and college,

3: PIPS school

4: Monitory school.

There is only one Mosque.

How many parks and garden in the area:


o

How many religious building are there in the area?


o

There are 4 schools and colleges in this area

there are no parks in this area.

Landscape of the area:

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o

There is no landscape areas in this area.

Female working center:


o

there is only one private female working center.

Discussion with two focus group of the area:


Q1.

What was the situation of population here before 10 years?


Ans(a). Before 10 years the population of Kaghan colony was very less.
Ans(b). Before 10 years the population of Kaghan colony was half of the current situation.

Q2.

How many people do you think are migrated here from different areas?
Ans(a). 50% to 60% people are migrated to Abbottabad and they are from different regions.
Ans(b). About 70% people are migrated from different region from KPK as well as Afghanistan.

Q3.

What do think was the purpose of their migration:


Ans(a). People have different reasons, Weather, education, hospital, environment & Climate.
Ans(b). Less crime rate, Weather, education, hospital, environment.

Q4.

How many female center are here and what difference does it make?
Ans(a). There is no female center, but it should have 1.
Ans(b). There are 2 female centers but not welcoming, female from side areas to use it.

Q5.

What do u think will be the population in 10 years?


Ans(a). People should go towards the peripheries of areas.
Ans(b). The population will remain same, because of no space and higher prices of rents.

Q6.

Is this town fit for further construction in the future?


Ans(a). There is no further space for construction.
Ans(b). There is no further space for construction.

Q7.

Is there any playground for kids and enough for them?


Ans(a). There is no playground in the whole colony for children.
Ans(b). There is no playground in the whole colony for children.

Q8.

Is the infrastructure good enough explain?


Ans(a). Infrastructure is not too bad but streets are very narrow to use.
Ans(b). Infrastructure is good but Water level is too low and no trees and open spaces for children to
play in it.

Ilyasi:
Town name: Qilah Town, more than 60 years, Town of Nawashehr (ilyasi).

How many school and college in the area?

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o

There are (primary govt. schools 3 for boys and 3 for girls, and 1 higher secondary school) 8
10 private schools, 2 colleges in the area.

How many religious building are there in the area?


o

There are 3 mosques.

Osmania ,

Main bazar mosque.

There is No parks/ gardens.

Landscape of the area?


o

How many parks and garden in the area?


o

Ilyasi Mosque,

There is no proper landscape in the whole area.

Female working center?


o

There is no female working centers in this area.

Discussion with two focus group of the area:


Q1.

What was the situation of population here before 10 years?


Ans(a). Before 10 years the population of this area was 2/3rd of the current situation.
Ans(b). Before 10 years the population of this area was 3/4th of the current situation.

Q2.

How many people do you think are migrated here from different areas?
Ans(a). The rate of migration is not that much as compare to other areas.
Ans(b). The rate of migration is not more than 10%.

Q3.

What do think was the purpose of their migration:


Ans(a). As the migration rate is low but the people who came here are due to New townships
nearby.
Ans(b). As the migration rate is low but the people who came here are due to Climate, peace,
people.

Q4.

How many female center are here and what difference does it make?
Ans(a). There is No female center here in that area, but it must have at least 1 female center.
Ans(b). There is No female center here in that area because people do not like.

Q5.

What do u think will be the population in 10 years?


Ans(a). The population will increase because of new towns in the surrounding areas is
underdevelopment.
Ans(b). The population will increase only if the Lower fields (on the opposite side of the river) are fill
with concrete.

Q6.

Is this town fit for further construction in the future?

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Ans(a). The town is fit for further construction but people are poor due to which it is not possible.
Ans(b). Yes further construction is needed.
Q7.

Is there any playground for kids and enough for them?


Ans(a). There is only one playground which is lakh pattii chowk ground
Ans(b). There is one play ground with football poles and that is enough.

Q8.

Is the infrastructure good enough explain?


Ans(a). The infrastructure is in worst conditions especially the roads and the drainage system.
Ans(b). The infrastructure is Average but Road is in very bad condition (Nalah, rain, dust).

Conclusion:
We conclude from the three targeted areas of Abbottabad kaghan, jinnahabad and nawasheher (ilyasi
town) that:
Throughout our visit of the three pockets of Abbottabad, where population is invreasing day by day. This
population growth is mostly due to the after-effects of the natural disasters in Pakistan i-e, earthquake of
2005, flood of 2009 and man-made disaster swat operation against terrorism 2010. And have given the
better opportunities like jobs, education, weather, serene landscape, business, life-safety, to the effected
peoples, to permanently settle here after 2005.
Due to these opportunities people are attracted, and day by day people are migrated to Abbottabad.
And the locals are moving toward peripheries, because of the huge amount of migration in new towns along
the main road of Abbottabad.

Recommendation/suggestions:
We recommend and suggested on the basis of our research to the migrated people that:

In existing towns and colonies the migrants ratio must be limited and fixed. And There should be a
new residential zone for them.

By use of open land and developing new housing societies for the people of Abbottabad 30% of the
total houses should be reserved for the migrants, so that cultural and traditional values of
Abbottabad remain alive.

The infrastructure should be properly maintained. The roads and streets must be wide enough.

Water problem should also be addressed.

References:
http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/social_situation/docs/lot1_projections_summary_en.pdf
http://www.erra.gov.pk/
www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/population_census/publicationdcr.pdf
http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-census

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http://www.census.gov/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbottabad_District
Statistical department office of abbottabad, Pakistan.

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