Investing in Resilience for

Food and Nutrition Security

Rajul Pandya-Lorch
with Laura Zseleczky
International Food Policy Research Institute
Development Finance Forum
July 10, 2015

A barrage of shocks
Climate Change

Food Price Volatility

Conflict

Natural Disasters

Health Crises

More frequent
More intense
Evolving and unexpected
Rajul Pandya-Lorch, IFPRI

www.2020resilience.ifpri.info

July 10, 2015

The volatility of international rice and wheat prices doubled from 1980
2006 to 20072010 (Minot 2013). Food price volatility is likely to continue
at least until 2020 (Headey and Fan 2010).
Continuing population growth, urbanization, and climate change increase
the potential for agriculture-related health crises. Diseases transmitted
from animals to humans account for 60.3 percent of emerging infectious
diseases and are significantly increasing over time (Jones et al. 2008).
A global model developed by Lloyd, Kovats, and Chalabi (2011) estimates
that climate change will lead to an increase in severe stunting rates by 23
55% in Africa and 61% in South Asia in 2050.
Natural disasters: Category 4 and 5 hurricanes doubled between the
1970s and 2010, while the number of weaker hurricanes remained
constant (Webster et al. 2005) and more frequent flooding is expected
around the world (Westra, Alexander, and Zwiers 2013).
Conflictaffected developing countries experience an annual average of
US$4.3 billion in agricultural valueadded losses (Pingali, Alinovi, and
Sutton 2005).
Rajul Pandya-Lorch, IFPRI

www.2020resilience.ifpri.info

July 10, 2015

Building resilience means helping people,

communities, countries, and global
institutions prevent, anticipate, prepare
for, cope with, and recover from shocks
and not only bounce back to where they
were before the shocks occurred, but
become even better-off.
IFPRI 2020 Consultation definition

Rajul Pandya-Lorch, IFPRI

www.2020resilience.ifpri.info

July 10, 2015

Investments to build resilience

.... ........ ....
..
.... ...... ......

Tools and
methods to
better assess and
predict the
impact of shocks

Improved
program design
Capacity building
at all levels

$
Innovative risk
management
mechanisms
(e.g. weather
index insurance)
Rajul Pandya-Lorch, IFPRI

Community-level
coping
mechanisms

www.2020resilience.ifpri.info

Nutritionsensitive food
and agriculture
programs linked
with social
protection,
health,
education, etc.
July 10, 2015

The food system today is at least as

dependent on non-food systems [as] it is
on food and agriculturewe will only get
a resilient food system if we think in
terms of this system of systems.
Joachim von Braun, University of Bonn

Rajul Pandya-Lorch, IFPRI

www.2020resilience.ifpri.info

July 10, 2015

Reflections moving forward

What are the innovations to enable communities
and countries to scale up investment in resilience?
Do we need more and/or different instruments,
including financial instruments?
How can we revisit the humanitarian financing
architecture to better strengthen resilience?

Rajul Pandya-Lorch, IFPRI

www.2020resilience.ifpri.info

July 10, 2015

www.2020resilience.ifpri.info