22 may 15

Oil futures drop, U.S. inflation data on tap

Crude oil futures dropped on Friday, as the previous session's downbeat U.S. data
sparked concerns over the strength of the economy and markets awaited the release of
U.S. inflation data later in the day.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for July delivery hit $60.20 during
European early afternoon hours, down 53 cents, or 0.90%. A day earlier, Nymex oil
prices rallied $1.74, or 2.95%, to end at $60.72.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for
initial jobless benefits in the week ending May 16 rose more than expected by 10,000 to
274,000 from the previous week's total of 264,000.
Separately, the National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell
unexpectedly by 3.3% in April to 5.04 million units from the previous month's revised
total of 5.21 million units.
In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index
declined to 6.7 this month from a reading of 7.5 in April, confounding expectations for a
rise to 8.0.
Investors were now looking ahead to U.S. inflation data and a speech by Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen due later in the day for fresh indications on how the
economy is performing.
U.S. oil futures have been well-supported in recent weeks as an ongoing collapse in rigs
drilling for oil in the U.S. added to expectations that shale oil production has peaked and
may start falling in the coming months.
According to industry research group Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), the number of rigs
drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by 8 last week to 660, the 23rd straight week of declines
and the lowest level since September 2010.
Oil traders have been paying close attention to the shrinking rig count in recent months
for signs it will eventually reduce the glut of crude flowing into the market.

But market analysts also warned that the recent rally in the oil market could prompt
some producers to dial up their output if prices hold above more than $60 a barrel.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery lost 69
cents, or 1.04%, to trade at $65.85 a barrel. On Thursday, London-traded Brent futures
advanced $1.51 cents, or 2.32%, to settle at $66.54.
The spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $5.65 a barrel.

Reference: http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-futuresdrop,-u.s.-inflation-data-on-tap-343103
21 may 15

NYMEX crude oil rose in Asia on China demand prospects,

U.S. supply fall
Crude oil prices edged higher in Asia on Thursday with investors eyeing slightly brighter
demand prospects in major importer China.
In China, the May HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1, up slightly from a disappointing
one-year low of 48.9 in April. The output index fell to 48.4 in the HSBC May survey, a 13-monthlow.
"The Flash China Manufacturing PMI pointed to a further deterioration in operating conditions in
April, with production declining for the first time in 2015 so far," said Annabel Fiddes, economist
at Markit.
"Moreover, softer client demand, both at home and abroad, along with further job cuts indicate
that the sector may find it difficult to expand, at least in the near-term, as companies tempered
production plans in line with weaker demand conditions. On a positive note, deflationary
pressures remained relatively strong, with both input and output prices continuing to decline,
leaving plenty of scope for the authorities to implement further stimulus measures if required."
The People's Bank of China has cut interest rates three times since November last year to keep
the economy on track.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for July delivery rose 0.19% to $59.10 a
barrel.
Overnight, crude futures rose sharply on Wednesday, amid dwindling U.S. stockpiles and

slowing production which helped ease longstanding concerns of oversupply.

On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Brent crude for July delivery rose 0.97 or 1.52% to
64.99 a barrel on Wednesday.
WTI crude prices neared $59 a barrel in U.S. morning trade before the release of the Energy
Information Administration's weekly crude inventory report at 10:30 EST.
U.S. commercial crude stockpiles fell by 2.7 million barrels for the week ending May 15, above
estimates of a 2.1 million draw. Crude stockpiles nationwide are now at 482.2 million barrels,
according to the EIA -- its highest level at this time of year in at least 80 years.
After steadily increasingly on a weekly basis for the first three and a half months of the year,
crude inventories have now declined for a period of three consecutive weeks. A week earlier,
crude stockpiles dipped by 2.2 million barrels, amid increased refinery demand as the summer
driving season nears. The trend continued last week, as refinery utilization spiked by 1.2%.
At the Cushing Oil Hub in Oklahoma, the nation's largest storage facility of crude, storage
capacity remains near 80%, according to Genscape, Inc. A month earlier, the figure hovered
around 90%, exacerbating concerns that the U.S. could reach full storage capacity.
Weekly U.S. crude output, meanwhile, declined to 9.262 million barrels per day from 9.374
million bpd, as production in Alaska declined. In recent weeks, the slowdown in production has
been concentrated in top shale fields such as the Bakken shale formation in North Dakota and
the Permian basin in West Texas.
Elsewhere, United Nations head Ban Ki-Moon scheduled talks on May 28 in Geneva between
the Yemeni government, Houthi leaders and other involved parties in the conflict in Yemen, in an
effort to end weeks of fighting in the Persian Gulf state.
Yemen has been bombarded by air strikes from Saudi Arabia since early-March. Energy traders
are sensitive to any geopolitical unrest involving Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of
crude.
Reference:
http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/numex-crude-oil-rose-in-asia-on-chinademand-prospects,-u.s.-supply-fall-342832
20 may 15

Oil prices rebound from steep dive

Oil prices rebounded in Asia today following steep losses in the previous session,
but analysts said gains were capped by a strong dollar and persistent concerns about a

global supply glut. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for July climbed 47
cents to USD 58.46 while Brent crude for July delivery gained 46 cents to USD 64.48 in
late-morning trade. Both contracts fell sharply yesterday on worries about the crude
oversupply and as the greenback soared against other major currencies, making dollarpriced oil more expensive and denting demand. The dollar strengthened against the
euro after a European Central Bank official said the bank would ramp up its assetpurchase stimulus programme in May and June to offset an expected financial market
slowdown in the coming months. A robust report on US housing construction also
lifted the greenback. "The strengthening of the dollar... was the reason for the three
percent decline in crude prices yesterday," said Daniel Ang, an investment analyst with
Phillip Futures in Singapore. "The subsequent rebound we see today is due to bargainhunting and the market forces readjusting to normal trading." The US Department of
Energy is expected to report stockpiles fell by two million barrels in the week ending
May 15, according to Newschannel. They still remain near their highest levels on
record, however. "Although stockpiles are expected to fall, the crude production level in
the US is still on a high side and we expect it to rise further," said Ang.
Reference: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-reboundsteep-dive_1388191.html?
utm_source=ref_article

19 may 15

NYMEX crude oil gains in Asia as API data shows sharp

drop, EIA ahead
Crude oil prices rose in Asia on Wednesday in a rebound from overnight lows and a solid drop
in U.S. stocks reported by an industry group.
The American Petroleum Institute said crude oil supplies in the U.S. last week fell 5.2 million
barrels, while gasoline stocks eased 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline supplies are watched closely
this time of year ahead of the U.S. summer driving season when demand normally grows.
API data on distillates was not available.
The data comes ahead of more closely-watched U.S. government figures later Wednesday. Last
week, the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, said crude inventories nationwide dropped
by 2.2 million barrels for the week ending May 8, marking the first time this year that stockpiles
fell on a weekly basis.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for July delivery rose 0.65% to $58.37 a
barrel.
Overnight, crude futures fell sharply on Tuesday, amid a stronger dollar and record output by

Saudi Arabia as the race between the U.S. and OPEC for global market share of crude
continues to escalate.
On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Brent crude for July delivery also tumbled falling
$2.14 or 3.23% to $64.13 a barrel on Tuesday.
Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi said the kingdom pumped 10.3 million barrels per day in
March, slightly above its previous record high of 10.2 million bpd in August, 2013. Saudi Arabia,
the world's largest exporter, also exported nearly 8 million bpd on the month, its highest level in
nearly 10 years.
Despite a glut of oversupply in the global crude market, Al-Naimi has resisted calls over the last
six months to slash production. In April, OPEC increased output by 160,000 bpd for the month
from an upward revised 960,000 bpd gain in March. OPEC's supply level for April exceeded
31.2 million bpd, its highest level since September, 2012.
Last November, OPEC sent crude prices crashing when it decided to keep daily production
levels constant triggering a protracted battle with the U.S for market share.
Previously, U.S. stockpiles peaked above 480 million barrels the highest level in at least 80
years.
The draw has eased fears that the U.S. could reach full storage capacity in the near future, a
doomsday scenario that could cause crude prices to plunge even further. WTI futures have
declined by more than 40% since reaching triple digits last spring.
Reference: http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/nymex-crude-oil-gains-in-asia-asapi-data-shows-sharp-drop,-eia-ahead-342616
19 may 15

NYMEX crude higher in early Asia on Middle East tension,

API data ahead
Crude oil prices gained in early Asia on Tuesday ahead of U.S. industry data on stockpiles and
after escalating tensions in Iraq and Yemen overnight.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for July delivery rose 0.07% to $60.29 a
barrel.
Up ahead the American Petroleum Institute will release details of U.S. crude and refined
products stockpiles as of last week. On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Energy reports its
own more-closely watched figure.
Overnight, crude futures fell mildly on Monday, retreating from higher levels earlier in the

session as modest gains from the turmoil in the Middle East failed to offset a resurgent dollar.
In Iraq, approximately 3,000 Shi'iite milita fighters mobilized at a site near Ramadi, after the
Western Iraqi city was taken over by the Islamic State over the weekend.
Meanwhile, U.S.-led warplanes conducted more than 15 airstrikes near the capital of the Anbar
Province at the request of Iraqi Security Forces, a coalition spokesman told Reuters. Islamic
militants reportedly killed up to 500 people and forced 8,000 others to flee from the city in their
biggest victory in more than a year, the Associated Press reported.
In December, crude output in Iraq spiked at a record 4 million barrels per day a month earlier,
significantly above a previous high of 3.56 million barrels in 1979. Weeks later, Iraqi oil minister
Adel Abdel Mahd announced a deal with a Kurdistan regional agency that helped boost exports
from an oil field in northern Iraq from 375,000 bpd over the first three months of the year to
600,000 bpd in April.
Under the deal, a pipeline network exported oil from the Kurdistan region to the Turkish
Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
Elsewhere, Saudi-led airstrikes resumed in Yemen after a five-day cease fire last week which
enabled impoverished Yemeni citizens to receive much-needed shipments of food and
medicine.
A militia of Shiite-led, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels has been bombarded by Saudi Arabian
airstrikes since late-March when a Houthi advance forced Yemen president Abed Rabbo
Mansour Hadi to flee the country by sea.
Energy traders are sensitive to any geopolitical instability involving Saudi Arabia, the world's
largest crude exporter.
On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent crude for July fell 0.51 cents or 0.76% to $66.30
a barrel on Monday.
Reference: http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/nymex-crude-higher-in-earlyasia-on-middle-east-tension,-api-data-ahead-342413
18 may 15

Oil lower after Goldman Sachs cuts price forecasts

Crude oil turned lower on Monday after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) cut its long term
price forecasts on concerns over the high supply outlook, offsetting concerns over
escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for July delivery was down 0.21% to
$60.44 a barrel, off session highs of $61.7.
Brent crude for July delivery, the global benchmark, was down 0.65% to $66.4 a barrel
on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
Goldman cut its oil price forecasts for 2016 to 2020, saying that improved U.S. shale
efficiency and production from OPEC will be more than adequate to meet future
demand.
The announcement came after the investment bank warned last week that the recent
rally in oil prices was premature.
U.S. oil prices have staged a recent rally after dropping more than half from June to
January, amid expectations that U.S. output has peaked.
But global oil production is still outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale
production and after OPEC's decision last year not to cut production.
On Monday Reuters reported that Iran's Deputy Oil Minister Rokneddin Javadi said
OPEC was unlikely to cut output at its meeting on June 5.
He also said he was hopeful that Irans oil exports would return to pre-sanctions levels
of around 2 million barrels per day within three months once a deal on limiting the
countrys nuclear program is reached.
Oil prices had moved higher earlier Monday amid concerns over supply disruptions after
Islamic State militants seized control of the city of Ramadi in western Iraq over the
weekend.
Meanwhile, Saudi-led air strikes in Yemen resumed after a ceasefire expired on Sunday
night, fuelling concerns over growing turmoil in the region.

Reference:
http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-lower-after-goldman-sachs-cutsprice-forecasts-342321