Professional Documents
Culture Documents
With the end of the US embargo in 1994, Vietnam was tipped to become
the next Asian tiger, but did not live up to its potential. Now, investors have again
become aware of Vietnam as resource-rich nation hungry for capital imports to
industrialise its economy and as a potential marketplace with a budding financial
sector market. For some it is also an attractive diversification alternative to China.
!
!
"
#$#$
!
%
The banking sectors growth potential is significant. But problems
like undercapitalisation, an unknown amount of non-performing loans, inadequate
risk management and weak supervision need to be tackled faster. Capital markets
are still maturing, but have delivered substantial returns. Investor-friendly
regulation and an expected increase in the equity markets size have attracted
significant investor interest. A corporate bond market is slowly emerging as well.
&
!
There is an urgent need to improve Vietnam's
legal system and general governance framework. Although the macroeconomic
environment is fairly stable, high inflation, a rising fiscal burden and a tightly
managed exchange rate need to be monitored carefully. There is also potential for
social unrest stemming from rising income inequality.
Author
Tamara Trinh
+49 69 910-31706
tamara.trinh@db.com
Editor
Maria Laura Lanzeni
Technical Assistant
Bettina Giesel
Deutsche Bank Research
Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Internet: www.dbresearch.com
E-mail: marketing.dbr@db.com
Fax: +49 69 910-31877
Managing Director
Norbert Walter
Current Issues
)*
1976:
1986:
1991:
1994:
2000:
US President Clinton
visits Vietnam
Ratification of the
bilateral trade agreement
with the US
2006:
2007:
Resumption of diplomatic
relations with China
Ending of US embargo,
Vietnam can join World
Bank, IMF
Resumption of diplomatic
relations with the US;
Vietnam joins ASEAN
2005:
1995:
2001:
Beginning of French
colonial rule
Victory of communist
forces at Dien Bien Phu,
end of French rule in
Indochina; partition of the
country along the 17th
latitude
1975:
1979:
6. Booming trade
Understanding Vietnam
+
!
Ruled by:
Secretary General:
Socialist Republic of
Vietnam
Communist Party of
Vietnam (CPV)
Nong Duc Manh
Head of govt:
Head of state:
Capital:
Hanoi
Currency:
Vietnamese dong
(VND)
329,560 sq km
(similar to Germany)
Area:
Population:
85 m
Ethnic groups:
Religions:
None: 81%,
Buddhist: 9%,
Catholic: 8%
Sources: CIA factbook, DB Research
15 years ago when the Asian miracle was happening and the tiger
states of East Asia bared their economic "claws" for the world to
see, many observers started to predict that Vietnam would soon join
the ranks of these rapidly growing East Asian tigers. After all, it had
announced its re-entrance onto the world stage this time not as a
country fighting one of the world's major powers, but as a reformist
communist country introducing market economy concepts following
the Chinese example. Its "Doi Moi" (roughly translates as "change to
something new") or "Renovation" policy was instituted in 1986, 8
years after Chinas "Open Door" policy. The Asian crisis hit
Vietnam's economy hard, as risk aversion towards Asia
compounded investor disillusionment with Vietnam's snail-like
reform process. Hence, many investors pulled out of the country in
search of other opportunities. Yet those who stayed may be finally
starting to reap the benefits.
Name:
.
Real GDP growth, CAGR 2000-2006, %
Taiwan
Philippines
Thailand
Indonesia
S.Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
India
H. Kong
China
Vietnam
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Source: DB Research
Current Issues
1
Per-capita GDP, nominal, USD
7000
2005
2006
2007e
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Malaysia
Thailand
China
Indonesia
Philippines
India
Vietnam
Source: DB Research
,.
Malaysia
China
Thailand
Vietnam's economic growth rate has in the recent past been second
only to China in Asia, averaging 7.4% for the period 2000-2006
compared to China's 9.5% and India's 6.7% (see chart 3). On the
other hand, its development level is more like India's with nominal
GDP per capita for 2006 estimated at USD 715, close to India's
USD 765 and less than half of China's nearly USD 2,000 (see chart
4). In a nutshell, Vietnam is as poor as India, but is growing at
almost the same speed as China (Indias growth has accelerated,
though).
Turkey
Ireland
Indonesia
S. Korea
Mexico
Chile
USA
Brazil
Germany
Japan
0
&
6
0
#$#$
8000
6000
4000
Baseline
The forgotten
2000
tiger
0
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
See Bergheim (2005). Please note: Vietnam was not included in the original
estimation of the Formel-G model due to data difficulties. As the 5.7% growth
forecast is based on estimated data, the statistical margin of error is wider than for
the original estimation which included China and India.
July 26, 2007
Understanding Vietnam
Germany
India
2016-20
2011-15
2006-10
2000-05
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
China
Vietnam
6
Source: UN
Philippines
China
0
India
Vietnam
2 (
The current five year plan foresees GDP per capita at USD 1,050-1,100 by 2010
and annual average GDP growth rates at 7.5-8%. See MPI, Socio-Economic
Development 2006-2010.
5
Current Issues
12
16
9
* DB Research estimate.
Source: The Economist, Nov 25, 2006
"
0 7
Indonesia
Vietnam
Tertiary
Secondary
India
0
50
100
"
888
150
Source: WDI
"
+$
Thailand
China
Indonesia
S. Korea
3
8
4
++
Estimates for the size of the different diasporas are based on various news
articles.
EIU (2006b).
Auswrtiges Amt (2007).
July 26, 2007
Understanding Vietnam
7:
+#
'1"
US BTA*
China
US
EU
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
*Bilateral trade agreement.
Source: IMF Direction of Trade statistics
+/
India
Thailand
Source: DB Research
+2
Bradsher (2006).
7
Current Issues
<
:
2$=
Investment, % of GDP
60
50
over 50% of all merchandise exports, these consist mainly of garments and textiles, footwear and furniture. The question therefore is
whether Vietnam will be able to build up higher value-added manufacturing industry as well, in order to diversify its export base and not
to be too dependent on the vagaries of international commodity
prices.
40
30
20
10
0
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
China
South Korea
Germany
Vietnam
India
USA
Malaysia
+0
Source: DB Resesarch
!!
2
1
FDI into Vietnam was relatively tiny at the beginning of this decade
at around USD 3 bn (on a commitment basis) per year. In the last
couple of years, however, as investor interest resumed so did FDI
(see chart 17), It reached over USD 10 bn (16% of GDP) on a
12
commitment basis in 2006 (USD 4.4 bn were disbursed ).
According to local estimates, FDI commitments could triple in 2007
to USD 30 bn. Although the government is a recipient of generous
overseas development aid (ODA) (see box p. 9) and has started to
13
tap international financial markets , it hopes that FDI will play a
14
major role in increasing investment. The trend looks supportive:
The foreign-invested sector has been playing an increasingly bigger
5
4
3
96
98
00
02
04
China
India
Vietnam
6 ;
06
+3
>
-(?
Total FDI (registered capital), USD bn
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
8
9
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
10
Source: CEIC
+6
11
12
13
14
But one should also give credit to the large improvements in infrastructure in the
past few years. For example, in 2001 only 3 ATMs existed in the whole country and
mobile phone providers did not even know that Vietnam existed. Today, there are
ATMs around every corner at the centre of the big cities and international mobile
phone access is not a problem at all.
See MPI, Socio-Economic Development 2006-2010.
See IMF article IV consultation (Nov 2006).
ICOR: units of investment needed to create one more unit of output; a higher value
signals a decrease in efficiency, i.e. one needs to invest more for a one-unit
increase in output.
The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) estimated that 20-40% of
all state investment in construction projects is lost in "leakage and waste" (See IMF
article IV consultation (Nov 2006) or Kazmin (Jan 13, 2007)).
World Bank estimate.
It is said for example that Vietnam issued its first sovereign Eurobond in October
2005 not because of financial needs, but to raise its profile in financial markets, to
signal its existence to investors and to incite more research about the country so
that more investors might become interested in investing in the country. The issue
has been well received and has been trading at spreads below its regional peers.
The five-year plan foresees investment relative to GDP reaching 40% in 2010 with
domestic capital accounting for 65% and external capital for 35%. See MPI, SocioEconomic Development 2006-2010.
July 26, 2007
Understanding Vietnam
!
FDI stock as of end-March 2007, USD m
Disbursed
capital
Registered
capital
7,780
Japan
5,171
Singapore
4,047
8,767
Taiwan
3,127
8,352
South Korea
2,893
8,420
Hong Kong
2,328
5,409
Netherlands
2,242
2,361
B.V. Islands
1,439
3,405
France
1,152
2,203
Malaysia
1,132
1,643
Mauritius
903
192
Thailand
833
1,608
2,302
US
718
India
683
134
UK
655
1,376
Cayman Islands
641
1,680
+5
Beijing
Shanghai
Jakarta
Bangkok
Hanoi
HCMCity
Manila
New Delhi
Bangalore
1
Early foreign direct investors have complained that one of the main
obstacles to setting up shop in Vietnam is a missing supplier base
and high operating costs. With improvements in the infrastructure
the latter, like e.g. telephone charges, have come down quite
significantly (see chart 19), and the former is likely to slowly build up
with further development of the economy.
5 1
+9
15
16
17
18
19
20
!!
The footwear and garment industry was one of the first sectors to
discover the potential of Vietnam as manufacturing site. The main
market of Vietnam's garment exports is the US (56%), followed by
18
the EU (19%) and Japan (11%). Garment exports surged by
19
almost 30% in 2006 in anticipation of WTO accession. The shoe
industry's export performance has been so good that it was included
in the anti-dumping measures the EU raised in 2006 against Asian
20
shoe imports. Nevertheless, footwear exports rose by roughly 20%
yoy last year. Often China is the location for mass market production, while specialised, high-quality orders are routed to Vietnam.
There is also a budding electronics / ITC equipment manufacturing sector in Vietnam. Intel's announcement in 2006 that it will
invest USD 1 bn in a chip assembly and testing plant (tripling an
Masaki (2006).
Vietnam Investment Review (2007).
Vietnam Investment Review (2007).
World Bank (June 2006).
The US has the ability to re-impose quotas even after Vietnam's WTO accession,
though.
World Bank (Dec 2006).
9
Current Issues
21
"
USD
Bangkok
Jakarta
Hanoi
HCMCity
Beijing
Manila
Bangalore
New Delhi
Shanghai
0
500
#$
)&
Tourists arrivals, m
120
124
China
H. Kong
Malaysia
Thailand
Singapore
S.Korea
Indonesia
India
Vietnam
Taiwan
Philippines
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
2005
2006
10
20
30
Source: CEIC
40
#+
Others
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Natural
gas
2005
2010
10
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
##
28
Understanding Vietnam
"
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
0.030
0.025
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
China
Vietnam
India
0.000
*
!
#/
% of GDP, 2006
H. Kong
Taiwan
China
Malaysia
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam*
S. Korea
India
Philippines
Bank deposits
Bank loans
Indonesia
0
100
200
300
400
#2
<
S. Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Indonesia
China
Pakistan
Thailand
India
Vietnam
Sri Lanka
29
30
31
32
30
60
90
33
Source: WDI
#0
34
Current Issues
plus 5 joint-venture banks (see table 28) with about another 15%
market share.
%
5
State-Owned Commercial
Banks (SOCBs)
Policy Banks
Urban Commercial Joint Stock
Banks
Rural Commercial Joint Stock
Banks
31
4
5
28
21
> 900
% D
Abbreviation
Vietcombank
#3
Full name
Chartered capital,
VND bn
Incombank aka
ICBV
Agribank aka
BARD or VBARD
BIDV
-
4,365
7,646
5,190
7,477
768
*There are also 2 policy banks: The Vietnam Bank for Social Policies and the
Vietnam Development Bank; Source: SBV (latest available data)
Name
VID Public Bank
%
Headquarter
Foreign partner(s)
Domestic
partner
Hanoi
BIDV
Indovina Bank
HCMC
ICBV
ShinhanVina Bank
HCMC
VinaSiam Bank
HCMC
VBARD
Vietnam-Russia
Bank
Hanoi
Vneshtorgbank (Russia)
BIDV
%, 2005
#6
Indonesia
Source: Company websites
Singapore
#5
H. Kong
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
S. Korea
Taiwan
Vietnam*
0
10
15
20
#9
35
12
Understanding Vietnam
Vietnam
Pakistan
China
India
Sri Lanka
Indonesia
Since last year JSBs have started to increase their capital base
through domestic bond issues and IPOs (as well as stake sales to
foreign partners (see Appendix 2)). Plans have been set up for
40
SOCBs to be equitised , with Vietcombank (VCB) equitisation
planed for this year. The government intends to retain majority
ownership in the SOCBs (at least 51%). Interestingly, SOCBs plan a
domestic listing before taking on a foreign stake holder (for a stake
of 10%) and listing internationally in either Singapore or Hong Kong.
S. Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Malaysia
H. Kong
Philippines
Singapore
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Source: DB Research
<
!
1?7
/$
97
99
01
03
05
Total loans
SOCB loans
Foreign-currency loans
Foreign-currency loans to SOEs
Source: CEIC
/+
This applies to joint venture and foreign-invested banks as well; see World Bank
(Dec 2006).
MacCana (2006).
38
World Bank (Dec 2006).
39
MacCana (2006).
40
Equitisation means turning an SOE into a joint-stock corporation and divesting
part of the state shares a first step towards listing a company.
41
IMF estimate for debt sustainability analysis.
37
13
Current Issues
However, they lend to other banks instead, which in turn lend to the
first banks securities firms.
;
Lending - deposit rate spread
(latest available), bp
Indonesia
Philippines
H. Kong
Singapore
India
Thailand
China
Vietnam
Malaysia
Taiwan
S. Korea
0
200
400
600
800
%
2
107
/#
+$
55
Securities companies
18
Custodian banks
//
42
43
44
14
Listed companies
There is a Deposit Insurance Agency (VND deposits up to VND 30m per individual
per bank are covered) with independent examination powers, but which
nevertheless relies on data supplied by the SBV.
See ADB Proposed Program loan document, Sep 2006.
In early 2007 the Shanghai stock market outperformed Vietnam's as the
Vietnamese government tried to cool down the stock market.
July 26, 2007
Understanding Vietnam
!
#$$3
market has become relatively expensive, with current P/E ratios for
some stocks listed at the Ho-Chi-Minh City market estimated at 4045
70x expected earnings .
2007
Vietnam
Sensex
PSE
Shanghai
Jakarta
Thailand
Source: Bloomberg
/2
%
Market cap (as of end-2006), % of GDP
905
H. Kong
Singapore
Taiwan
Malaysia
USA
Japan
S. Korea
Thailand
India
Germany
Philippines
China
Indonesia
Vietnam*
288
168
156
148
105
94
68
90
57
57
44
39
15
0
500
1000
/0
This rush of activity in Vietnams stock market has been mainly due
to a change in policy. Over the course of the last two years, the
government gradually eased restrictions in order to further the
development of the formal market (versus a relatively large informal
market, also called "OTC market" in Vietnam). First came the lifting
of the foreign investment ceiling in a listed company (ex banks) to
49% from 30% in October 2005. Foreign-invested enterprises (FIE)
got permission to list on the stock exchange and Taiwan's Taya
Electronic Wire and Cable Co. became the first FIE to list in
February 2006. In a further step, the government phased out tax
incentives for listed firms starting 2007, thus inducing a rush of firms
to come to the market before the end of 2006 (December 2006
alone saw 49 listings).
The new Securities Law (in force since January 2007) aims to
improve the regulatory environment for Vietnamese securities and to
raise transparency and financial disclosure. It will convert the HoChi-Minh City Security Trading Centre into a full stock exchange
with jurisdiction over listings, there will be a separation of securities
brokers and asset management companies and any listed or not
listed public company with 50 or more shareholders will be required to disclose financial information. In effect it will introduce the
same rules of disclosure on the informal market as those on the
main board, thus giving firms further incentives to list (financial
45
46
47
48
49
Current Issues
1
B
2007
2008
2009
2010
/3
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
16
Understanding Vietnam
++
Urgent need to improve regulations and governance
0
10
/6
59
60
The DAF is one of the largest lenders in Vietnam with outstanding loans equivalent
to 12% of GDP half of it is financed by ODA.
IMF article IV consultation (Jan 2006).
Institutional Investor (2006).
17
Current Issues
.
Corruption Perception Index 2006
(scale 0 - 10, the higher the less corrupt)
Singapore
H. Kong
Germany
Japan
USA
Taiwan
S. Korea
Malaysia
Thailand
China
India
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Philippines
Indonesia
Pakistan
0
10
/5
18
Understanding Vietnam
62
Current Issues
:+
>
Name
ABN Amro Bank
ANZ
Bank of China
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ
Home country
Branches in
Netherlands
Hanoi + HCMC
Australia
Hanoi + HCMC
China
HCMC
Japan
HCMC
Thailand
Hanoi + HCMC
France
HCMC
France
Hanoi+HCMC
Taiwan
Chu Lai
Chinatrust Bank
Taiwan
HCMC
Chinfon Bank
Taiwan
Hanoi
US
Hanoi+HCMC
Bangkok Bank
BNP Paribas
Citibank
Germany
HCMC
Deutsche Bank
Taiwan
HCMC
Taiwan
HCMC
HSBC
UK
Hanoi + HCMC
JP Morgan Chase
US
HCMC
S. Korea
Hanoi
Hanoi + HCMC
Malaysia
Hanoi + HCMC
Taiwan
HCMC
Japan
Hanoi
France
HCMC
Singapore
HCMC
S. Korea
HCMC
UK
Hanoi + HCMC
Japan
HCMC
Singapore
HCMC
S. Korea
Hanoi + HCMC
Sources: SBV, company websites
20
/9
Understanding Vietnam
:#
@
Name
Sacombank (Saigon Thuong Tin
Commercial Joint Stock Bank)
%
Chartered
capital *,
VND bn
Head
office
Foreign
investor
Date of deal
announced
2089
HCMC
ANZ
Mar-05
Dec-05
Jan-07
1500
Hanoi
HSBC
1290
HCMC
UOB
1212
HCMC
1131
HCMC
1100
HCMC
Military Bank
1045
Hanoi
1000
Hanoi
1000
Hanoi
1000
Hanoi
880
Standard
Chartered
Jun-05
Deutsche
Bank
n.a.
Feb-07
HCMC
Citigroup has
signed MOU
Expected in
2007
750
Hanoi
OCBC
Mar-06
Maritime Bank
700
Hanoi
689
HCMC
600
HCMC
Navibank
500
HCMC
567
n.a.
Nov-06
Nam A Bank
550
HCMC
500
HCMC
500
Hanoi
500
Can Tho
500
HCMC
Bac A
400
Vinh
De Nhat
300
HCMC
290
Rach Gia
Gia Dinh
210
HCMC
200
189
HCMC
73
HCMC
*Latest available data from central bank website. Sources: SBV, various news articles, company websites
2$
21
Current Issues
22
Understanding Vietnam
23
Current Issues
Copyright 2007. Deutsche Bank AG, DB Research, D-60262 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite Deutsche Bank
Research.
The above information does not constitute the provision of investment, legal or tax advice. Any views expressed reflect the current views of the author, which do
not necessarily correspond to the opinions of Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates. Opinions expressed may change without notice. Opinions expressed may differ
from views set out in other documents, including research, published by Deutsche Bank. The above information is provided for informational purposes only and
without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. No warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the
information given or the assessments made.
In Germany this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, authorised by Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht.
In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange regulated by
the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK. This information is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong
Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. and in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch. In Japan this information is approved
and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Limited, Tokyo Branch. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS)
relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product.
Printed by: HST Offsetdruck Schadt & Tetzlaff GbR, Dieburg
ISSN Print: 1612-314X / ISSN Internet and e-mail: 1612-3158