Real-time Flood Forecasting in Iowa

with a Data Assimilated Hydrological

Model

Scott J. Small
The Iowa Flood Center
IIHR Hydroscience & Engineering
The University of Iowa

Real-time flood forecasting in Iowa

Streamflow forecasts
are produced:
Every hour
For 10 days
At over 2000
locations

Streamflow forecasts based on the IFC model are publicly available in

the Iowa Flood Information System (http://iowafloodcenter.org/)

Flood warnings at points of interest

Streamflow forecasts based on the IFC model are publicly available in

the Iowa Flood Information System (http://iowafloodcenter.org/)

Iowa Flood Centers

Distributed Hydrological Model

Example of Landscape decomposition (Turkey River)

Example of Landscape decomposition (Turkey River)

Parameters describing soil

conductivity, infiltration
capacity, slope, and
roughness are assigned to
each terrain unit

Statewide implementation
Our distributed hydrological model provides streamflow predictions everywhere in Iowa

About 420,000
individual hillslopes

IFC Modelling Framework

Four ODEs per hillslope

Mass Conservation Equations

Fluxes between control volumes

Channel Routing

Radar rainfall coverage of Iowa

0.004167 degree spatial

resolution (about 300m by 400m)
5 minute temporal resolution

Custom numerical solvers produce solutions to

the system of differential equations

ASYNCH numerical solver

for ODEs with a tree
structure
Developed at the Iowa
Flood Center for distributed
hydrological models
Runs on distributed memory
architectures
Written in C

Combining streamflow observations with

model projections

Observations
USGS Streamflow Gauges
Around 200 in Iowa
15 minute resolution

IFC Bridge Sensors

Around 200 in Iowa
15 minute resolution
Rating curves under
development

USGS Gauges and IFC Bridge Sensors

Given a collection of observations over a period of time, what

initial model states best reproduce the observations?

Data assimilation performed through a least

squares fitting of model inputs
Find the discharge at each channel minimizing the energy functional

with the linearized model discharges

and discharge sensitivity matrix H and observation vector d.

Calculating the sensitivity matrix requires solving an

additional ODE at each link for every upstream link

Links too far from a gauge can be ignored in the

sensitivity matrix

Travel times with

(high) linear
velocity can limit
greatly calculations.

Iowa Flood Centers

Streamflow Forecasting System

IFIS

Real-time flood forecasting with data

assimilation
1. Model channel
discharges are
selected at the
background time to
fit data

Background
Time
Time of
Forecast

Real-time flood forecasting with data

assimilation
1. Model channel
discharges are
selected at the
background time to
fit data
2. Model is advanced
to the time of
forecast

Background
Time

Assimilation
Period
Time of
Forecast

Real-time flood forecasting with data

assimilation
1. Model channel
discharges are
selected at the
background time to
fit data
2. Model is advanced
to the time of
forecast
3. Model based
forecast is produced

Background
Time

Assimilation
Period
Time of
Forecast

Forecast

Iowa River above the city Marengo, IA

7,200 km2
drainage area
(18,000 hillslopes)
10 available USGS
Gauges
Forecasts from
June 20th, 2015

Future Work and Additions

Expand data assimilation domain to the entire
state of Iowa
Incorporate Iowa Flood Center bridge sensor
data (requires rating curves)
Adjust hillslope model states based upon
streamflow observations
Incorporate observation and model
uncertainty