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Privileged and Confidential

Commercially Sensitive Material


April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Total NCEMPA: All Participants


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

1,060,637
3,694,657
80%

1,066,307
7,452,464
80%

1,073,161
7,479,539
80%

1,078,114
7,520,101
80%

1,083,900
7,562,879
80%

1,088,538
7,614,147
80%

1,095,233
7,636,324
80%

1,100,099
7,674,661
80%

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

494,727
47%

494,727
46%

494,727
46%

494,727
46%

494,727
46%

494,727
45%

494,727
45%

494,727
45%

708,555 $
9.51
3.2%

735,076 $
9.83
3.4%

762,980 $
10.15
3.2%

792,208 $
10.47
3.2%

862,168 $
11.32
8.1%

863,970 $
11.31
(0.1%)

866,798
11.29
(0.2%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

280,037
7.58

579,718 $
7.78
2.6%

601,704 $
8.04
3.4%

623,569 $
8.29
3.1%

641,082 $
8.48
2.2%

650,695 $
8.55
0.8%

676,087 $
8.85
3.6%

708,148
9.23
4.2%

$000
%

(60,317) $
(18%)

(128,836) $
(18%)

(133,372) $
(18%)

(139,411) $
(18%)

(151,126) $
(19%)

(211,473) $
(25%)

(187,883) $
(22%)

(158,650)
(18%)

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

340,354
9.21

$19.29
3.27
0.21
251,537
6.81

522,718
7.01

544,704
7.28

566,569
7.53

584,082
7.72

593,695
7.80

619,087
8.11

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

651,148
8.48

28,500 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
$
28,500 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000
0.77
0.76
0.76
0.76
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.74

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Total NCEMPA: All Participants


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

1,105,800
7,717,852
80%

1,111,777
7,782,790
80%

1,119,156
7,819,246
80%

1,125,040
7,871,520
80%

1,131,087
7,923,288
80%

1,136,096
7,989,377
80%

1,144,161
8,026,628
80%

1,149,586
8,082,031
80%

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

494,727
45%

494,727
44%

494,727
44%

494,727
44%

494,727
44%

494,727
44%

494,727
43%

494,727
43%

870,046 $
11.27
(0.2%)

787,281 $
10.12
(10.3%)

790,151 $
10.11
(0.1%)

730,278 $
9.28
(8.2%)

753,725 $
9.51
2.5%

778,549 $
9.74
2.4%

802,801 $
10.00
2.6%

827,994
10.24
2.4%

$23.75
4.47
0.17

$27.26
4.46
0.17

$28.90
4.66
0.17

$32.25
4.60
0.18

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

730,030 $
9.46
2.5%

780,692 $
10.03
6.0%

794,928 $
10.17
1.3%

811,336 $
10.31
1.4%

848,360 $
10.71
3.9%

869,108 $
10.88
1.6%

894,645 $
11.15
2.5%

963,172
11.92
6.9%

$000
%

(140,016) $
(16%)

(6,589) $
(1%)

4,777 $
1%

81,058 $
11%

94,635 $
13%

90,559 $
12%

91,843 $
11%

135,178
16%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

673,030
8.72

723,692
9.30

766,428
9.80

811,336
10.31

848,360
10.71

869,108
10.88

894,645
11.15

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

963,172
11.92

57,000 $
57,000 $
28,500
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
$
57,000 $
57,000 $
28,500
0.74
0.73
0.36

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Total NCEMPA: All Participants


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

1,154,060
8,131,616
80%

1,157,161
8,189,475
81%

1,160,955
8,207,365
81%

1,163,644
8,237,658
81%

1,166,391
8,268,237
81%

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

494,727
43%

494,727
43%

494,727
43%

494,727
43%

494,727
42%

854,226 $
10.50
2.5%

881,604 $
10.77
2.5%

907,297 $
11.05
2.7%

980,349 $ 1,059,300
11.90
12.81
7.7%
7.7%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

996,248
12.25

$ 1,029,555
12.57

$ 1,071,174
13.05

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$ 1,106,841
13.44

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
6,510,455 $ 4,003,480 $ 10,513,935

4,995,834

451,142

5,446,976

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$ 1,185,047
14.33

$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%

996,248 $ 1,029,555 $ 1,071,174 $ 1,106,841 $ 1,185,047


12.25
12.57
13.05
13.44
14.33
2.8%
2.6%
3.8%
2.9%
6.7%

$000
%

142,022 $
17%

$ (1,063,479) $
(16%)

147,950 $
17%

163,877 $
18%

126,492 $
13%

125,747
12%

4,558,161

4,558,161

9,553,995

451,142

$ 10,005,138

554,682 $
14%

(508,797)
(5%)

5%

April 2015

Total NCEMPA: All Participants


Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(120.6) or (18%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


2015-25 (10.5 Years) $(1,063.5) - (16%)
2026-35 (10 Years)
$554.7 - 14%
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(508.8) - (5%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$260.00 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $57.00 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Total NCEMPA: All Participants


Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Total NCEMPA: All Participants


Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$508.8 Million Lower Charges

5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Apex
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

52,606
147,439
64%

54,042
303,688
64%

55,657
312,028
64%

57,112
320,150
64%

58,575
328,309
64%

59,887
336,433
64%

61,483
344,513
64%

62,943
352,657
64%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

5,550
11%

5,550
10%

5,550
10%

5,550
10%

5,550
9%

5,550
9%

5,550
9%

5,550
9%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

11,726
7.95

$19.29
3.27
0.21

11,228
7.62

25,576 $
8.42
5.9%

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

28,500 $
1.1218%
320 $
0.22

23,848
7.85

27,796 $
8.91
5.8%

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

25,403
8.14

30,072 $
9.39
5.4%

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

26,920
8.41

31,268 $
9.52
1.4%

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

28,272
8.61

32,797 $
9.75
2.4%

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

29,234
8.69

34,045 $
9.88
1.4%

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

31,120
9.03

35,650
10.11
2.3%

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

33,396
9.47

57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.21

57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.20

57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.20

57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.19

57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.19

57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.19

57,000
1.1218%
639
0.18

24,487 $
8.06
3.0%

26,043 $
8.35
3.5%

27,559 $
8.61
3.1%

28,911 $
8.81
2.3%

29,874 $
8.88
0.8%

31,759 $
9.22
3.8%

34,035
9.65
4.7%

(179) $
(2%)

(1,089) $
(4%)

(1,753) $
(6%)

(2,513) $
(8%)

(2,357) $
(8%)

(2,923) $
(9%)

(2,286) $
(7%)

(1,615)
(5%)

11,547
7.83

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Apex
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

64,423
360,916
64%

65,759
369,285
64%

67,424
377,686
64%

68,938
386,161
64%

70,457
394,658
64%

71,808
403,218
64%

73,521
411,815
64%

75,077
420,537
64%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

5,550
9%

5,550
8%

5,550
8%

5,550
8%

5,550
8%

5,550
8%

5,550
8%

5,550
7%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

36,679 $
10.16
0.5%

$23.75
4.47
0.17
35,097
9.72

38,822 $
10.51
3.4%

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

38,593
10.45

40,877 $
10.82
3.0%

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

41,656
11.03

43,473 $
11.26
4.0%

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

45,123
11.68

46,192 $
11.70
4.0%

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

47,948
12.15

47,971 $
11.90
1.6%

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

49,679
12.32

50,154 $
12.18
2.4%

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

51,866
12.59

54,185
12.88
5.8%

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

56,284
13.38

57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.18

57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.17

35,736 $
9.90
2.6%

39,232 $
10.62
7.3%

41,975 $
11.11
4.6%

45,123 $
11.68
5.1%

47,948 $
12.15
4.0%

49,679 $
12.32
1.4%

51,866 $
12.59
2.2%

56,284
13.38
6.3%

(942) $
(3%)

410 $
1%

1,099 $
3%

1,649 $
4%

1,756 $
4%

1,709 $
4%

1,712 $
3%

2,099
4%

28,500
1.1218%
320
0.08

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Apex
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

76,631
429,246
64%

77,981
437,899
64%

79,699
446,417
64%

81,216
454,896
64%

82,762
463,536
64%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

5,550
7%

5,550
7%

5,550
7%

5,550
7%

5,550
7%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

56,914 $
13.26
2.9%

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

59,055
13.76

59,600 $
13.61
2.7%

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

61,767
14.11

62,876 $
14.08
3.5%

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

65,246
14.62

66,438 $
14.61
3.7%

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

68,347
15.02

71,331
15.39
5.4%

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
264,381 $
259,352 $
523,734

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

73,478
15.85

$000
%
$000
/kWh

247,561

5,061

$000
/kWh
%

59,055 $
13.76
2.8%

61,767 $
14.11
2.5%

65,246 $
14.62
3.6%

68,347 $
15.02
2.8%

73,478
15.85
5.5%

252,622

$000
%

2,142 $
4%

2,167 $
4%

2,370 $
4%

1,909 $
3%

2,147
3%

(11,759) $
(4%)

268,551

268,551

516,112

5,061

521,173

9,198 $
4%

(2,561)
(0.5%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Apex
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


$(0.4) or (2%)
(Annualized 2015):

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


2015-25 (10.5 Years) $(11.8) (4%)
4%
2026-35 (10 Years)
$9.2 2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(2.6) - (0.5%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.83 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.64 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Apex
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Apex
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$2.6 Million Lower Charges

0.5% Lower Charges


-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Ayden
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

18,108
55,806
70%

18,128
111,885
70%

18,182
111,778
70%

18,222
111,887
70%

18,270
112,040
70%

18,295
112,331
70%

18,355
112,255
70%

18,401
112,392
70%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

7,098
39%

7,098
39%

7,098
39%

7,098
39%

7,098
39%

7,098
39%

7,098
39%

7,098
39%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

4,041
7.24

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
1.4347%
409 $
0.73

$000
/kWh
%

4,450
7.97

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

5,187
9.29

$19.29
3.27
0.21

10,817 $
9.67
4.0%

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

8,357
7.47

11,248 $
10.06
4.1%

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

8,668
7.75

11,700 $
10.46
3.9%

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

8,974
8.02

12,100 $
10.80
3.3%

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

9,213
8.22

13,078 $
11.64
7.8%

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

9,328
8.30

13,104 $
11.67
0.3%

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

9,697
8.64

13,163
11.71
0.3%

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

10,178
9.06

57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73

57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73

57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73

57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73

57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73

57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73

57,000
1.4347%
818
0.73

9,175 $
8.20
2.8%

9,486 $
8.49
3.5%

9,792 $
8.75
3.1%

10,031 $
8.95
2.3%

10,146 $
9.03
0.9%

10,514 $
9.37
3.7%

10,996
9.78
4.5%

(737) $
(14%)

(1,642) $
(15%)

(1,762) $
(16%)

(1,908) $
(16%)

(2,070) $
(17%)

(2,933) $
(22%)

(2,589) $
(20%)

(2,167)
(16%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Ayden
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

18,460
112,611
70%

18,512
113,090
70%

18,601
113,222
69%

18,674
113,543
69%

18,747
113,875
69%

18,813
114,456
69%

18,915
114,679
69%

19,008
115,147
69%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

7,098
38%

7,098
38%

7,098
38%

7,098
38%

7,098
38%

7,098
38%

7,098
38%

7,098
37%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

13,197 $
11.72
0.1%

$23.75
4.47
0.17
10,483
9.31

12,093 $
10.69
(8.8%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

11,287
9.98

12,164 $
10.74
0.5%

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

11,929
10.54

11,389 $
10.03
(6.6%)

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

12,650
11.14

11,744 $
10.31
2.8%

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

13,197
11.59

12,077 $
10.55
2.3%

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

13,471
11.77

12,404 $
10.82
2.5%

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

13,816
12.05

12,750
11.07
2.4%

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

14,785
12.84

57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73

57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.72

11,301 $
10.04
2.6%

12,104 $
10.70
6.7%

12,338 $
10.90
1.8%

12,650 $
11.14
2.2%

13,197 $
11.59
4.0%

13,471 $
11.77
1.6%

13,816 $
12.05
2.4%

14,785
12.84
6.6%

(1,897) $
(14%)

11 $
0%

174 $
1%

1,261 $
11%

1,453 $
12%

1,394 $
12%

1,412 $
11%

2,035
16%

28,500
1.4347%
409
0.36

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Ayden
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

19,089
115,539
69%

19,139
116,037
69%

19,204
116,020
69%

19,247
116,167
69%

19,290
116,315
69%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

7,098
37%

7,098
37%

7,098
37%

7,098
37%

7,098
37%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

13,131 $
11.37
2.6%

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

15,263
13.21

13,516 $
11.65
2.5%

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

15,732
13.56

13,874 $
11.96
2.7%

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

16,320
14.07

14,909 $
12.83
7.3%

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

16,818
14.48

15,944
13.71
6.8%

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
99,329 $
61,587 $
160,916

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

17,839
15.34

$000
%
$000
/kWh

78,666

69,994

148,660

6,473

6,473

85,139

69,994

155,133

$000
/kWh
%

15,263 $
13.21
2.9%

15,732 $
13.56
2.6%

16,320 $
14.07
3.8%

16,818 $
14.48
2.9%

17,839
15.34
5.9%

$000
%

2,132 $
16%

2,216 $
16%

2,447 $
18%

1,909 $
13%

1,895
12%

(14,191) $
(14%)

8,408 $
14%

(5,783)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Ayden
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


$(1.5) or (14%)
(Annualized 2015):

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


2015-25 (10.5 Years) $(14.2) - (14%)
14%
2026-35 (10 Years)
$8.4 2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(5.8) (4%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$2.95 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.82 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Ayden
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Ayden
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$5.8 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Belhaven
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

3,099
10,493
77%

3,106
21,089
78%

3,114
21,087
77%

3,123
21,145
77%

3,132
21,210
77%

3,139
21,313
78%

3,148
21,313
77%

3,156
21,370
77%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

1,718
55%

1,718
55%

1,718
55%

1,718
55%

1,718
55%

1,718
55%

1,718
55%

1,718
54%

2,090 $
9.91
3.1%

2,157 $
10.23
3.2%

2,230 $
10.55
3.1%

2,323 $
10.95
3.8%

2,559 $
12.01
9.6%

2,551 $
11.97
(0.3%)

2,544
11.91
(0.5%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

724
6.90

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.3473%
99 $
0.94

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

1,009
9.62

$19.29
3.27
0.21

1,500
7.11

1,557
7.39

1,616
7.64

1,661
7.83

1,685
7.91

1,752
8.22

1,839
8.61

57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.94

57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.94

57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.94

57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.93

57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.93

57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.93

57,000
0.3473%
198
0.93

1,698 $
8.05
2.6%

1,755 $
8.32
3.4%

1,814 $
8.58
3.0%

1,859 $
8.77
2.2%

1,883 $
8.84
0.8%

1,950 $
9.15
3.5%

2,037
9.53
4.2%

(186) $
(18%)

(392) $
(19%)

(402) $
(19%)

(416) $
(19%)

(463) $
(20%)

(675) $
(26%)

(601) $
(24%)

(507)
(20%)

823
7.85

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Belhaven
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

3,167
21,443
77%

3,179
21,583
78%

3,193
21,622
77%

3,206
21,714
77%

3,220
21,810
77%

3,234
21,969
78%

3,250
22,024
77%

3,267
22,141
77%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

1,718
54%

1,718
54%

1,718
54%

1,718
54%

1,718
53%

1,718
53%

1,718
53%

1,718
53%

2,017 $
9.25
2.2%

2,087 $
9.50
2.7%

2,148 $
9.75
2.6%

2,182
9.86
1.1%

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

1,897
8.85

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.92

57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.92

$000
/kWh
%

2,095 $
9.77
2.5%

2,236 $
10.36
6.1%

2,252 $
10.42
0.5%

2,278 $
10.49
0.7%

2,378 $
10.90
3.9%

2,434 $
11.08
1.6%

2,499 $
11.35
2.4%

2,686
12.13
6.9%

$000
%

(451) $
(18%)

14 $
1%

43 $
2%

313 $
16%

361 $
18%

347 $
17%

351 $
16%

504
23%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

2,546 $
11.87
(0.3%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

2,222 $
10.30
(13.3%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

2,038
9.44

2,210 $
10.22
(0.7%)

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

2,153
9.96

1,965 $
9.05
(11.4%)

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

2,278
10.49

2,378
10.90

2,434
11.08

2,499
11.35

2,686
12.13

28,500
0.3473%
99
0.46

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Belhaven
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

3,282
22,242
77%

3,292
22,377
78%

3,301
22,374
77%

3,308
22,422
77%

3,315
22,470
77%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

1,718
52%

1,718
52%

1,718
52%

1,718
52%

1,718
52%

2,248 $
10.11
2.5%

2,318 $
10.36
2.5%

2,372 $
10.60
2.4%

2,597 $
11.58
9.2%

2,810
12.51
8.0%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

2,776
12.48

2,868
12.81

2,977
13.31

3,073
13.70

3,279
14.59

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
19,022 $
10,628 $
29,650

14,183

12,714

26,897

1,567

1,567

12,714

28,464

$000
/kWh
%

2,776 $
12.48
2.9%

2,868 $
12.81
2.7%

2,977 $
13.31
3.8%

3,073 $
13.70
3.0%

3,279
14.59
6.5%

15,750

$000
%

528 $
24%

550 $
24%

605 $
26%

476 $
18%

469
17%

(3,272) $
(17%)

2,086 $
20%

(1,186)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Belhaven
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


$(0.4) or (18%)
(Annualized 2015):

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(3.3) - (17%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
20%
2026-35 (10 Years)
$2.1 2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(1.2) (4%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.06 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.20 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Belhaven
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Belhaven
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$1.2 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Benson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

5,917
18,287
71%

5,924
36,678
71%

5,930
36,606
70%

5,935
36,619
70%

5,940
36,639
70%

5,944
36,709
70%

5,950
36,627
70%

5,957
36,641
70%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,801 $
10.36
3.3%

3,924 $
10.72
3.4%

4,057 $
11.08
3.3%

4,223 $
11.53
4.0%

4,657 $
12.69
10.1%

4,637 $
12.66
(0.2%)

4,618
12.60
(0.5%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

1,322
7.23

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.6507%
185 $
1.01

$000
/kWh
%

1,508
8.24

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

1,834
10.03

$19.29
3.27
0.21

2,735
7.46

2,833
7.74

2,930
8.00

3,004
8.20

3,040
8.28

3,154
8.61

3,306
9.02

57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01

57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01

57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01

57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01

57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01

57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01

57,000
0.6507%
371
1.01

3,106 $
8.47
2.7%

3,203 $
8.75
3.3%

3,301 $
9.01
3.0%

3,375 $
9.21
2.2%

3,411 $
9.29
0.9%

3,525 $
9.62
3.6%

3,677
10.04
4.3%

(326) $
(18%)

(695) $
(18%)

(721) $
(18%)

(756) $
(19%)

(848) $
(20%)

(1,247) $
(27%)

(1,113) $
(24%)

(941)
(20%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Benson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

5,966
36,689
70%

5,977
36,843
70%

5,990
36,857
70%

6,003
36,953
70%

6,016
37,055
70%

6,030
37,259
71%

6,047
37,315
70%

6,064
37,472
71%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,219
54%

3,219
53%

3,219
53%

3,219
53%

3,587 $
9.68
2.1%

3,700 $
9.93
2.6%

3,796 $
10.17
2.4%

3,818
10.19
0.2%

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

3,402
9.27

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01

57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01

$000
/kWh
%

3,772 $
10.28
2.5%

4,030 $
10.94
6.4%

4,046 $
10.98
0.4%

4,088 $
11.06
0.8%

4,260 $
11.50
3.9%

4,347 $
11.67
1.5%

4,452 $
11.93
2.3%

4,762
12.71
6.5%

$000
%

(842) $
(18%)

30 $
1%

75 $
2%

584 $
17%

673 $
19%

647 $
17%

656 $
17%

944
25%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

4,615 $
12.58
(0.2%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

4,000 $
10.86
(13.7%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

3,659
9.93

3,971 $
10.77
(0.8%)

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

3,861
10.47

3,504 $
9.48
(12.0%)

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

4,088
11.06

4,260
11.50

4,347
11.67

4,452
11.93

4,762
12.71

28,500
0.6507%
185
0.50

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Benson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

6,078
37,595
71%

6,087
37,757
71%

6,092
37,707
71%

6,099
37,727
71%

6,107
37,746
71%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

3,219
53%

3,219
53%

3,219
53%

3,219
53%

3,219
53%

3,922 $
10.43
2.4%

4,030 $
10.67
2.3%

4,107 $
10.89
2.0%

4,505 $
11.94
9.6%

4,851
12.85
7.6%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

4,911
13.06

5,060
13.40

5,241
13.90

5,397
14.31

5,727
15.17

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
34,523 $
18,635 $
53,158

25,615

22,537

48,152

2,936

2,936

22,537

51,087

$000
/kWh
%

4,911 $
13.06
2.8%

5,060 $
13.40
2.6%

5,241 $
13.90
3.7%

5,397 $
14.31
2.9%

5,727
15.17
6.1%

28,550

$000
%

989 $
25%

1,030 $
26%

1,134 $
28%

892 $
20%

876
18%

(5,972) $
(17%)

3,902 $
21%

(2,071)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Benson
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


$(0.7) or (18%)
(Annualized 2015):

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(6.0) - (17%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
21%
2026-35 (10 Years)
$3.9 2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(2.1) (4%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.50 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.37 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Benson
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Benson
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$2.1 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Clayton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

18,094
51,506
65%

18,327
105,028
65%

18,556
106,653
66%

18,761
108,276
66%

18,968
109,907
66%

19,151
111,587
67%

19,367
113,060
67%

19,574
114,654
67%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

5,214
29%

5,214
28%

5,214
28%

5,214
28%

5,214
27%

5,214
27%

5,214
27%

5,214
27%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

3,889
7.55

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
1.0539%
300 $
0.58

$000
/kWh
%

4,190
8.13

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

4,638
9.00

$19.29
3.27
0.21

9,865 $
9.39
4.3%

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

8,160
7.77

10,447 $
9.80
4.3%

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

8,568
8.03

11,045 $
10.20
4.1%

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

8,966
8.28

11,472 $
10.44
2.3%

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

9,302
8.46

12,309 $
11.03
5.7%

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

9,515
8.53

12,500 $
11.06
0.2%

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

9,998
8.84

12,760
11.13
0.7%

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

10,608
9.25

57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.57

57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.56

57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.55

57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.55

57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.54

57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.53

57,000
1.0539%
601
0.52

8,761 $
8.34
2.5%

9,169 $
8.60
3.1%

9,567 $
8.84
2.8%

9,903 $
9.01
2.0%

10,116 $
9.07
0.6%

10,599 $
9.37
3.4%

11,209
9.78
4.3%

(448) $
(10%)

(1,104) $
(11%)

(1,278) $
(12%)

(1,478) $
(13%)

(1,569) $
(14%)

(2,193) $
(18%)

(1,901) $
(15%)

(1,552)
(12%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Clayton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

19,789
116,316
67%

19,998
118,143
67%

20,241
119,803
68%

20,474
121,590
68%

20,709
123,387
68%

20,933
125,323
68%

21,194
127,083
68%

21,445
128,997
69%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

5,214
26%

5,214
26%

5,214
26%

5,214
25%

5,214
25%

5,214
25%

5,214
25%

5,214
24%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

12,932 $
11.12
(0.1%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17
11,034
9.49

12,521 $
10.60
(4.7%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

12,007
10.16

12,840 $
10.72
1.1%

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

12,816
10.70

12,693 $
10.44
(2.6%)

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

13,730
11.29

13,285 $
10.77
3.1%

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

14,459
11.72

13,754 $
10.97
1.9%

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

14,884
11.88

14,262 $
11.22
2.3%

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

15,404
12.12

15,038
11.66
3.9%

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

16,624
12.89

57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.52

57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.51

11,634 $
10.00
2.3%

12,607 $
10.67
6.7%

13,116 $
10.95
2.6%

13,730 $
11.29
3.1%

14,459 $
11.72
3.8%

14,884 $
11.88
1.4%

15,404 $
12.12
2.1%

16,624
12.89
6.3%

(1,297) $
(10%)

86 $
1%

276 $
2%

1,038 $
8%

1,174 $
9%

1,130 $
8%

1,142 $
8%

1,586
11%

28,500
1.0539%
300
0.25

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Clayton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

21,693
130,876
69%

21,917
132,806
69%

22,169
134,428
69%

22,399
136,131
69%

22,633
137,856
70%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

5,214
24%

5,214
24%

5,214
24%

5,214
23%

5,214
23%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

15,664 $
11.97
2.7%

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

17,318
13.23

16,300 $
12.27
2.5%

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

18,010
13.56

16,993 $
12.64
3.0%

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

18,875
14.04

18,160 $
13.34
5.5%

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

19,642
14.43

19,543
14.18
6.3%

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
95,235 $
72,451 $
167,686

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

21,050
15.27

$000
%
$000
/kWh

80,361

79,089

159,450

4,755

4,755

85,116

79,089

164,205

$000
/kWh
%

17,318 $
13.23
2.7%

18,010 $
13.56
2.5%

18,875 $
14.04
3.5%

19,642 $
14.43
2.8%

21,050
15.27
5.8%

$000
%

1,653 $
11%

1,710 $
10%

1,882 $
11%

1,481 $
8%

1,507
8%

(10,120) $
(11%)

6,639 $
9%

(3,481)
(2%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Clayton
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


$(0.9) or (10%)
(Annualized 2015):

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


2015-25 (10.5 Years) $(10.1) - (11%)
9%
2026-35 (10 Years)
$6.6 2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(3.5) (2%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.94 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.60 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Clayton
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Clayton
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$3.5 Million Lower Charges

2% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Edenton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

16,693
51,543
70%

16,697
103,734
71%

16,734
103,811
71%

16,747
104,054
71%

16,765
104,394
71%

16,757
104,863
71%

16,790
104,897
71%

16,801
105,118
71%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

3,729
7.23

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
1.5570%
444 $
0.86

$000
/kWh
%

4,172
8.09

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

4,994
9.69

$19.29
3.27
0.21

10,397 $
10.02
3.4%

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

7,722
7.44

10,782 $
10.39
3.6%

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

8,013
7.72

11,184 $
10.75
3.5%

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

8,296
7.97

11,606 $
11.12
3.4%

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

8,519
8.16

12,661 $
12.07
8.6%

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

8,626
8.23

12,654 $
12.06
(0.1%)

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

8,965
8.55

12,659
12.04
(0.2%)

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

9,405
8.95

57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.86

57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.85

57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.85

57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.85

57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.85

57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.85

57,000
1.5570%
887
0.84

8,610 $
8.30
2.5%

8,900 $
8.57
3.3%

9,184 $
8.83
2.9%

9,406 $
9.01
2.1%

9,514 $
9.07
0.7%

9,853 $
9.39
3.5%

10,292
9.79
4.2%

(822) $
(16%)

(1,787) $
(17%)

(1,881) $
(17%)

(2,000) $
(18%)

(2,200) $
(19%)

(3,147) $
(25%)

(2,802) $
(22%)

(2,367)
(19%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Edenton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

16,812
105,332
72%

16,802
105,709
72%

16,831
105,668
72%

16,841
105,810
72%

16,847
105,923
72%

16,835
106,284
72%

16,867
106,248
72%

16,878
106,421
72%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

9,676
9.19

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.84

57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.84

$000
/kWh
%

10,563 $
10.03
2.4%

11,273 $
10.66
6.3%

11,393 $
10.78
1.1%

11,571 $
10.94
1.4%

12,037 $
11.36
3.9%

12,254 $
11.53
1.5%

12,535 $
11.80
2.3%

13,386
12.58
6.6%

$000
%

(2,102) $
(17%)

(23) $
(0%)

120 $
1%

1,319 $
13%

1,530 $
15%

1,467 $
14%

1,487 $
13%

2,168
19%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

12,665 $
12.02
(0.2%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

11,296 $
10.69
(11.1%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

10,386
9.82

11,273 $
10.67
(0.2%)

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

10,949
10.36

10,252 $
9.69
(9.2%)

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

11,571
10.94

10,507 $
9.92
2.4%

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

12,037
11.36

10,787 $
10.15
2.3%

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

12,254
11.53

11,049 $
10.40
2.5%

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

12,535
11.80

11,218
10.54
1.4%

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

13,386
12.58

28,500
1.5570%
444
0.42

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Edenton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

16,888
106,568
72%

16,873
106,871
72%

16,901
106,749
72%

16,906
106,794
72%

16,911
106,840
72%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

7,703
46%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

11,506 $
10.80
2.4%

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

13,782
12.93

11,805 $
11.05
2.3%

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

14,174
13.26

12,073 $
11.31
2.4%

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

14,692
13.76

13,087 $
12.25
8.3%

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

15,125
14.16

14,048
13.15
7.3%

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
95,018 $
54,453 $
149,471

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

16,058
15.03

$000
%
$000
/kWh

72,624

63,377

136,001

7,024

7,024

79,648

63,377

143,025

$000
/kWh
%

13,782 $
12.93
2.8%

14,174 $
13.26
2.6%

14,692 $
13.76
3.8%

15,125 $
14.16
2.9%

16,058
15.03
6.1%

$000
%

2,276 $
20%

2,369 $
20%

2,618 $
22%

2,038 $
16%

2,010
14%

(15,370) $
(16%)

8,923 $
16%

(6,446)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Edenton
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


$(1.6) or (16%)
(Annualized 2015):

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


2015-25 (10.5 Years) $(15.4) - (16%)
16%
2026-35 (10 Years)
$8.9 2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(6.4) (4%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$4.15 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.89 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Edenton
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Edenton
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$6.4 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Elizabeth City


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

49,446
162,058
75%

50,120
328,720
75%

50,724
331,255
75%

51,309
334,343
74%

51,961
338,042
74%

52,554
341,892
74%

53,139
344,236
74%

53,716
347,232
74%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

20,049
41%

20,049
40%

20,049
40%

20,049
39%

20,049
39%

20,049
38%

20,049
38%

20,049
37%

31,179 $
9.48
3.6%

32,589 $
9.84
3.7%

34,089 $
10.20
3.6%

35,495 $
10.50
3.0%

38,525 $
11.27
7.3%

38,830 $
11.28
0.1%

39,262
11.31
0.2%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

12,526
7.73

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

14,844
9.16

$19.29
3.27
0.21

11,371
7.02

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

28,500 $
4.0525%
1,155 $
0.71

23,799
7.24

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

24,910
7.52

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

26,032
7.79

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

26,996
7.99

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

27,594
8.07

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

28,903
8.40

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

30,566
8.80

57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.70

57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.70

57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.69

57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.68

57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.68

57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.67

57,000
4.0525%
2,310
0.67

26,109 $
7.94
2.8%

27,220 $
8.22
3.5%

28,342 $
8.48
3.2%

29,306 $
8.67
2.3%

29,904 $
8.75
0.9%

31,213 $
9.07
3.7%

32,876
9.47
4.4%

(2,317) $
(16%)

(5,070) $
(16%)

(5,369) $
(16%)

(5,747) $
(17%)

(6,189) $
(17%)

(8,621) $
(22%)

(7,617) $
(20%)

(6,386)
(16%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Elizabeth City


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

54,306
350,355
74%

54,907
354,330
74%

55,518
356,920
73%

56,123
360,201
73%

56,726
363,462
73%

57,340
367,605
73%

57,954
370,209
73%

58,588
373,771
73%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

20,049
37%

20,049
37%

20,049
36%

20,049
36%

20,049
35%

20,049
35%

20,049
35%

20,049
34%

39,599 $
11.30
(0.0%)

36,843 $
10.40
(8.0%)

37,323 $
10.46
0.6%

35,525 $
9.86
(5.7%)

36,927 $
10.16
3.0%

38,249 $
10.40
2.4%

39,522 $
10.68
2.6%

41,163
11.01
3.2%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$23.75
4.47
0.17
31,723
9.05

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

34,351
9.69

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

36,522
10.23

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

38,923
10.81

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

40,867
11.24

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

42,026
11.43

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

43,350
11.71

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

46,735
12.50

57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.66

57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.65

34,033 $
9.71
2.6%

36,661 $
10.35
6.5%

37,677 $
10.56
2.0%

38,923 $
10.81
2.4%

40,867 $
11.24
4.1%

42,026 $
11.43
1.7%

43,350 $
11.71
2.4%

46,735
12.50
6.8%

(5,566) $
(14%)

(182) $
(0%)

354 $
1%

3,398 $
10%

3,941 $
11%

3,777 $
10%

3,827 $
10%

5,573
14%

28,500
4.0525%
1,155
0.32

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Elizabeth City


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

59,182
376,976
73%

59,731
380,562
73%

60,217
381,968
72%

60,679
383,957
72%

61,144
385,955
72%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

20,049
34%

20,049
34%

20,049
33%

20,049
33%

20,049
33%

42,679 $
11.32
2.8%

44,248 $
11.63
2.7%

45,730 $
11.97
3.0%

49,124 $
12.79
6.9%

52,820
13.69
7.0%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

48,523
12.87

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

50,327
13.22

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

52,462
13.73

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

54,334
14.15

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
293,276 $
198,584 $
491,860

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

58,032
15.04

$000
%
$000
/kWh

232,277

18,283

$000
/kWh
%

48,523 $
12.87
2.9%

50,327 $
13.22
2.7%

52,462 $
13.73
3.9%

54,334 $
14.15
3.0%

58,032
15.04
6.3%

250,559

$000
%

5,845 $
14%

6,080 $
14%

6,732 $
15%

5,210 $
11%

5,213
10%

(42,717) $
(15%)

221,536

221,536

453,812

18,283

472,095

22,952 $
12%

(19,765)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Elizabeth City


Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(4.6) or (16%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(42.7) - (15%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
12%
$23.0 2026-35 (10 Years)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(19.8) (4%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$11.05 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $2.31 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Elizabeth City


Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Elizabeth City


Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$19.8 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Farmville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

8,862
25,264
65%

8,892
50,675
65%

8,909
50,564
65%

8,922
50,534
65%

8,942
50,539
65%

8,951
50,589
65%

8,973
50,501
64%

9,004
50,573
64%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

4,866
55%

4,866
55%

4,866
55%

4,866
55%

4,866
54%

4,866
54%

4,866
54%

4,866
54%

5,535 $
10.92
3.5%

5,721 $
11.32
3.6%

5,919 $
11.71
3.5%

6,172 $
12.21
4.3%

6,826 $
13.49
10.5%

6,801 $
13.47
(0.2%)

6,779
13.41
(0.5%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

1,906
7.55

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.9836%
280 $
1.11

$000
/kWh
%

2,187
8.66

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

2,667
10.56

$19.29
3.27
0.21

3,949
7.79

4,090
8.09

4,226
8.36

4,333
8.57

4,382
8.66

4,551
9.01

4,783
9.46

57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11

57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11

57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11

57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11

57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11

57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11

57,000
0.9836%
561
1.11

4,510 $
8.90
2.8%

4,650 $
9.20
3.3%

4,787 $
9.47
3.0%

4,894 $
9.68
2.2%

4,943 $
9.77
0.9%

5,112 $
10.12
3.6%

5,344
10.57
4.4%

(480) $
(18%)

(1,025) $
(19%)

(1,071) $
(19%)

(1,132) $
(19%)

(1,278) $
(21%)

(1,884) $
(28%)

(1,689) $
(25%)

(1,436)
(21%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Farmville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

9,044
50,695
64%

9,123
51,141
64%

9,204
51,388
64%

9,297
51,804
64%

9,384
52,191
63%

9,436
52,503
64%

9,496
52,642
63%

9,558
52,908
63%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

4,866
54%

4,866
53%

4,866
53%

4,866
52%

4,866
52%

4,866
52%

4,866
51%

4,866
51%

5,375 $
10.30
2.3%

5,550 $
10.57
2.6%

5,702 $
10.83
2.5%

5,723
10.82
(0.1%)

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

4,928
9.72

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11

57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.10

$000
/kWh
%

5,489 $
10.83
2.5%

5,911 $
11.56
6.7%

5,959 $
11.60
0.3%

6,072 $
11.72
1.1%

6,367 $
12.20
4.1%

6,503 $
12.39
1.5%

6,669 $
12.67
2.3%

7,127
13.47
6.3%

$000
%

(1,295) $
(19%)

25 $
0%

85 $
1%

857 $
16%

992 $
18%

953 $
17%

967 $
17%

1,404
25%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

6,784 $
13.38
(0.2%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

5,886 $
11.51
(14.0%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

5,350
10.46

5,874 $
11.43
(0.7%)

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

5,678
11.05

5,216 $
10.07
(11.9%)

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

6,072
11.72

6,367
12.20

6,503
12.39

6,669
12.67

7,127
13.47

28,500
0.9836%
280
0.55

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Farmville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

9,613
53,135
63%

9,658
53,410
63%

9,693
53,412
63%

9,723
53,496
63%

9,753
53,580
63%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

4,866
51%

4,866
50%

4,866
50%

4,866
50%

4,866
50%

5,890 $
11.08
2.5%

6,060 $
11.35
2.4%

6,180 $
11.57
2.0%

6,784 $
12.68
9.6%

7,269
13.57
7.0%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

7,363
13.86

7,595
14.22

7,873
14.74

8,111
15.16

8,569
15.99

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
50,552 $
27,953 $
78,505

37,091

33,738

70,830

4,437

4,437

33,738

75,267

$000
/kWh
%

7,363 $
13.86
2.9%

7,595 $
14.22
2.6%

7,873 $
14.74
3.7%

8,111 $
15.16
2.9%

8,569
15.99
5.5%

41,529

$000
%

1,473 $
25%

1,534 $
25%

1,692 $
27%

1,327 $
20%

1,300
18%

(9,023) $
(18%)

5,785 $
21%

(3,238)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Farmville
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(1.0) or (18%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(9.0)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (18%)
21%
$5.8
2026-35 (10 Years)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(3.2)
(4%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$3.35 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.56 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Farmville
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Farmville
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$3.2 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Fremont
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

2,177
6,909
72%

2,194
13,975
73%

2,200
13,982
73%

2,202
13,985
73%

2,206
14,011
72%

2,209
14,054
73%

2,213
14,041
72%

2,216
14,055
72%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

1,167
54%

1,167
53%

1,167
53%

1,167
53%

1,167
53%

1,167
53%

1,167
53%

1,167
53%

1,418 $
10.15
3.0%

1,466 $
10.49
3.4%

1,516 $
10.84
3.3%

1,578 $
11.26
3.9%

1,736 $
12.36
9.7%

1,731 $
12.33
(0.2%)

1,726
12.28
(0.4%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

493
7.13

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.2359%
67 $
0.97

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

680
9.85

$19.29
3.27
0.21

1,027
7.35

1,066
7.62

1,103
7.89

1,132
8.08

1,147
8.16

1,191
8.48

1,249
8.89

57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96

57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96

57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96

57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96

57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96

57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96

57,000
0.2359%
134
0.96

1,161 $
8.31
2.5%

1,200 $
8.59
3.3%

1,237 $
8.85
3.0%

1,267 $
9.04
2.2%

1,281 $
9.12
0.8%

1,325 $
9.44
3.5%

1,383
9.84
4.3%

(120) $
(18%)

(257) $
(18%)

(266) $
(18%)

(279) $
(18%)

(311) $
(20%)

(455) $
(26%)

(406) $
(23%)

(342)
(20%)

560
8.11

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Fremont
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

2,221
14,091
72%

2,226
14,153
73%

2,233
14,170
72%

2,241
14,224
72%

2,249
14,282
72%

2,259
14,391
73%

2,273
14,467
73%

2,288
14,587
73%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

1,167
53%

1,167
52%

1,167
52%

1,167
52%

1,167
52%

1,167
52%

1,167
51%

1,167
51%

1,369 $
9.58
2.2%

1,415 $
9.83
2.6%

1,458 $
10.08
2.5%

1,482
10.16
0.8%

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

1,287
9.13

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.95

57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.95

$000
/kWh
%

1,421 $
10.08
2.5%

1,517 $
10.72
6.3%

1,527 $
10.78
0.5%

1,547 $
10.87
0.9%

1,614 $
11.30
3.9%

1,651 $
11.47
1.5%

1,697 $
11.73
2.3%

1,825
12.51
6.6%

$000
%

(305) $
(18%)

11 $
1%

29 $
2%

213 $
16%

245 $
18%

236 $
17%

239 $
16%

343
23%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

1,726 $
12.25
(0.2%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

1,507 $
10.64
(13.1%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

1,383
9.77

1,498 $
10.57
(0.7%)

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

1,460
10.30

1,334 $
9.38
(11.3%)

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

1,547
10.87

1,614
11.30

1,651
11.47

1,697
11.73

1,825
12.51

28,500
0.2359%
67
0.47

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Fremont
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

2,303
14,706
73%

2,317
14,847
73%

2,332
14,929
73%

2,347
15,049
73%

2,363
15,170
73%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

1,167
51%

1,167
50%

1,167
50%

1,167
50%

1,167
49%

1,531 $
10.41
2.5%

1,584 $
10.67
2.5%

1,630 $
10.92
2.3%

1,792 $
11.91
9.1%

1,945
12.82
7.7%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

1,891
12.86

1,958
13.19

2,041
13.67

2,116
14.06

2,265
14.93

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
12,906 $
7,254 $
20,160

9,655

8,673

18,328

1,064

1,064

8,673

19,392

$000
/kWh
%

1,891 $
12.86
2.8%

1,958 $
13.19
2.6%

2,041 $
13.67
3.7%

2,116 $
14.06
2.9%

2,265
14.93
6.1%

10,719

$000
%

359 $
23%

374 $
24%

412 $
25%

324 $
18%

319
16%

(2,187) $
(17%)

1,419 $
20%

(768)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Fremont
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.2) or (18%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(2.2)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (17%)
20%
$1.4
2026-35 (10 Years)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(0.8)
(4%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$0.80 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.13 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Fremont
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Fremont
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$0.8 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Greenville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

248,353
863,448
79%

249,507
1,743,451
80%

250,507
1,748,708
80%

251,281
1,756,499
80%

252,064
1,764,375
80%

252,538
1,773,933
80%

253,351
1,777,141
80%

254,233
1,786,024
80%

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

100,781
41%

100,781
40%

100,781
40%

100,781
40%

100,781
40%

100,781
40%

100,781
40%

100,781
40%

161,069 $
9.24
3.4%

167,323 $
9.57
3.6%

173,863 $
9.90
3.4%

179,807 $
10.19
3.0%

193,963 $
10.93
7.3%

194,442 $
10.94
0.1%

195,554
10.95
0.1%

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

77,139
8.93

$19.29
3.27
0.21
58,840
6.81

122,299
7.01

127,254
7.28

132,201
7.53

136,060
7.71

138,046
7.78

143,670
8.08

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

151,034
8.46

28,500 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
$
5,806 $
11,611 $
11,611 $
11,611 $
11,611 $
11,611 $
11,611 $
11,611
0.67
0.67
0.66
0.66
0.66
0.65
0.65
0.65
64,646
7.49

133,910 $
7.68
2.6%

138,865 $
7.94
3.4%

143,813 $
8.19
3.1%

147,671 $
8.37
2.2%

149,658 $
8.44
0.8%

155,281 $
8.74
3.6%

162,646
9.11
4.2%

(12,493) $
(16%)

(27,159) $
(17%)

(28,458) $
(17%)

(30,050) $
(17%)

(32,136) $
(18%)

(44,306) $
(23%)

(39,161) $
(20%)

(32,908)
(17%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Greenville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

255,225
1,796,033
80%

256,897
1,818,282
81%

258,714
1,831,803
81%

260,659
1,851,867
81%

262,479
1,870,479
81%

263,473
1,885,828
82%

264,720
1,893,294
82%

265,930
1,905,642
82%

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

100,781
39%

100,781
39%

100,781
39%

100,781
39%

100,781
38%

100,781
38%

100,781
38%

100,781
38%

196,371 $
10.93
(0.1%)

181,411 $
9.98
(8.7%)

183,024 $
9.99
0.1%

172,873 $
9.34
(6.6%)

179,258 $
9.58
2.7%

184,914 $
9.81
2.3%

190,362 $
10.05
2.5%

197,714
10.38
3.2%

$23.75
4.47
0.17

$27.26
4.46
0.17

$28.90
4.66
0.17

$32.25
4.60
0.18

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

167,633 $
9.33
2.5%

179,756 $
9.89
5.9%

184,152 $
10.05
1.7%

189,321 $
10.22
1.7%

198,445 $
10.61
3.8%

203,260 $
10.78
1.6%

208,948 $
11.04
2.4%

225,032
11.81
7.0%

$000
%

(28,738) $
(15%)

(1,655) $
(1%)

1,128 $
1%

16,448 $
10%

19,187 $
11%

18,346 $
10%

18,586 $
10%

27,318
14%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

156,021
8.69

168,144
9.25

178,347
9.74

189,321
10.22

198,445
10.61

203,260
10.78

208,948
11.04

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

225,032
11.81

57,000 $
57,000 $
28,500
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
$
11,611 $
11,611 $
5,806
0.65
0.64
0.32

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Greenville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

266,981
1,916,319
82%

267,730
1,929,242
82%

268,455
1,931,140
82%

268,995
1,936,502
82%

269,536
1,941,879
82%

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

100,781
38%

100,781
38%

100,781
38%

100,781
37%

100,781
37%

204,038 $
10.65
2.6%

210,644 $
10.92
2.5%

216,948 $
11.23
2.9%

232,794 $
12.02
7.0%

251,052
12.93
7.5%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

232,726
12.14

240,508
12.47

250,053
12.95

258,255
13.34

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
1,478,681 $
952,471 $ 2,431,152

1,163,062

91,902

1,254,964

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

276,536
14.24

$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%

232,726 $
12.14
2.8%

240,508 $
12.47
2.7%

250,053 $
12.95
3.9%

258,255 $
13.34
3.0%

276,536
14.24
6.8%

$000
%

28,687 $
14%

29,864 $
14%

33,106 $
15%

25,462 $
11%

25,484
10%

(223,717) $
(15%)

1,064,636

1,064,636

2,227,698

91,902

2,319,600

112,166 $
12%

(111,552)
(5%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Greenville
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(25.0) or (16%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(223.7) - (15%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
$112.2 - 12%
2026-35 (10 Years)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(111.6) - (5%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$41.95 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $11.61 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Greenville
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Greenville
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$111.6 Million Lower Charges

5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hamilton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

588
1,629
63%

590
3,270
63%

593
3,267
63%

595
3,270
63%

597
3,277
63%

599
3,285
63%

601
3,284
62%

604
3,289
62%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

334
57%

334
57%

334
56%

334
56%

334
56%

334
56%

334
56%

334
55%

365 $
11.16
3.4%

378 $
11.55
3.6%

391 $
11.96
3.5%

409 $
12.48
4.4%

454 $
13.83
10.8%

453 $
13.79
(0.3%)

451
13.72
(0.5%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

125
7.66

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.0675%
19 $
1.18

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

176
10.79

$19.29
3.27
0.21

259
7.92

268
8.22

278
8.49

285
8.71

289
8.80

301
9.16

316
9.61

57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.18

57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.18

57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.18

57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.17

57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.17

57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.17

57,000
0.0675%
38
1.17

297 $
9.09
2.8%

307 $
9.39
3.3%

316 $
9.67
3.0%

324 $
9.88
2.2%

328 $
9.97
0.9%

339 $
10.33
3.6%

355
10.78
4.4%

(32) $
(18%)

(68) $
(19%)

(71) $
(19%)

(75) $
(19%)

(85) $
(21%)

(127) $
(28%)

(114) $
(25%)

(97)
(21%)

144
8.84

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hamilton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

607
3,297
62%

609
3,312
62%

613
3,317
62%

616
3,328
62%

619
3,339
62%

622
3,357
62%

626
3,363
61%

630
3,378
61%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

334
55%

334
55%

334
55%

334
54%

334
54%

334
54%

334
53%

334
53%

451 $
13.69
(0.2%)

388 $
11.70
(14.5%)

385 $
11.61
(0.8%)

337 $
10.13
(12.8%)

345 $
10.34
2.1%

357 $
10.62
2.7%

366 $
10.88
2.4%

365
10.80
(0.7%)

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

326
9.88

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.17

57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.16

$000
/kWh
%

364 $
11.05
2.5%

391 $
11.81
6.9%

392 $
11.82
0.2%

397 $
11.94
1.0%

415 $
12.43
4.1%

423 $
12.61
1.5%

434 $
12.90
2.3%

463
13.70
6.2%

$000
%

(87) $
(19%)

3 $
1%

7 $
2%

60 $
18%

70 $
20%

67 $
19%

68 $
19%

98
27%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

$23.75
4.47
0.17

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

353
10.64

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

373
11.24

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

397
11.94

415
12.43

423
12.61

434
12.90

463
13.70

28,500
0.0675%
19
0.58

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hamilton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

633
3,390
61%

635
3,404
61%

637
3,402
61%

639
3,406
61%

641
3,409
61%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

334
53%

334
53%

334
52%

334
52%

334
52%

375 $
11.06
2.4%

385 $
11.32
2.3%

392 $
11.53
1.8%

432 $
12.69
10.1%

463
13.57
7.0%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

478
14.09

492
14.46

510
14.99

525
15.41

553
16.23

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
3,346 $
1,787 $
5,134

2,442

2,191

4,633

305

305

2,191

4,938

$000
/kWh
%

478 $
14.09
2.9%

492 $
14.46
2.6%

510 $
14.99
3.6%

525 $
15.41
2.8%

553
16.23
5.3%

2,746

$000
%

103 $
27%

107 $
28%

118 $
30%

93 $
21%

91
20%

(600) $
(18%)

404 $
23%

(196)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Hamilton
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

Cents/kWh

12
11
10
9
8

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.1) or (18%)

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(0.6) - (18%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
23%
2026-35 (10 Years)
$0.4
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(0.2) (4%)

5
4

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)

Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)

2
1
0
2015

Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$0.20 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.04 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Hamilton
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

Cents/kWh

12
11

10
9
8
7
6
5

Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Hamilton
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$0.2 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hertford
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

4,016
11,884
68%

4,013
23,797
68%

4,015
23,738
67%

4,018
23,742
67%

4,024
23,779
67%

4,028
23,845
68%

4,037
23,847
67%

4,047
23,920
67%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

1,913
48%

1,913
48%

1,913
48%

1,913
48%

1,913
48%

1,913
47%

1,913
47%

1,913
47%

2,439 $
10.25
3.7%

2,526 $
10.64
3.8%

2,619 $
11.03
3.7%

2,721 $
11.44
3.8%

2,982 $
12.50
9.3%

2,979 $
12.49
(0.1%)

2,980
12.46
(0.2%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

879
7.40

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.3867%
110 $
0.93

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

1,174
9.88

$19.29
3.27
0.21

1,815
7.63

1,879
7.91

1,942
8.18

1,992
8.38

2,017
8.46

2,096
8.79

2,203
9.21

57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.93

57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.93

57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.93

57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.93

57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.92

57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.92

57,000
0.3867%
220
0.92

2,036 $
8.55
2.8%

2,099 $
8.84
3.4%

2,163 $
9.11
3.0%

2,213 $
9.31
2.2%

2,237 $
9.38
0.8%

2,317 $
9.71
3.5%

2,423
10.13
4.3%

(185) $
(16%)

(403) $
(17%)

(426) $
(17%)

(456) $
(17%)

(508) $
(19%)

(744) $
(25%)

(662) $
(22%)

(557)
(19%)

989
8.32

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hertford
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

4,060
24,012
68%

4,078
24,222
68%

4,098
24,346
68%

4,120
24,536
68%

4,141
24,720
68%

4,156
24,898
68%

4,173
24,989
68%

4,191
25,138
68%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

1,913
47%

1,913
47%

1,913
47%

1,913
46%

1,913
46%

1,913
46%

1,913
46%

1,913
46%

2,656 $
10.91
(0.4%)

2,413 $
9.84
(9.8%)

2,488 $
10.06
2.3%

2,565 $
10.30
2.4%

2,636 $
10.55
2.4%

2,679
10.66
1.0%

$28.90
4.66
0.17

$32.25
4.60
0.18

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

2,270
9.46

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.92

57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.91

$000
/kWh
%

2,491 $
10.37
2.4%

2,675 $
11.04
6.4%

2,709 $
11.13
0.8%

2,766 $
11.27
1.3%

2,894 $
11.71
3.8%

2,956 $
11.87
1.4%

3,031 $
12.13
2.2%

3,244
12.91
6.4%

$000
%

(495) $
(17%)

22 $
1%

54 $
2%

353 $
15%

406 $
16%

390 $
15%

396 $
15%

566
21%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

2,986 $
12.43
(0.2%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

2,653 $
10.95
(11.9%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

2,454
10.13

2,599
10.68

2,766
11.27

2,894
11.71

2,956
11.87

3,031
12.13

3,244
12.91

28,500
0.3867%
110
0.45

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hertford
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

4,206
25,266
69%

4,217
25,416
69%

4,228
25,437
69%

4,237
25,498
69%

4,245
25,558
69%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

1,913
45%

1,913
45%

1,913
45%

1,913
45%

1,913
45%

2,758 $
10.92
2.4%

2,840 $
11.18
2.4%

2,908 $
11.43
2.3%

3,163 $
12.40
8.5%

3,396
13.29
7.1%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

3,351
13.26

3,456
13.60

3,586
14.10

3,697
14.50

3,923
15.35

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
22,326 $
13,019 $
35,345

17,053

15,362

32,415

1,745

1,745

15,362

34,160

$000
/kWh
%

3,351 $
13.26
2.8%

3,456 $
13.60
2.5%

3,586 $
14.10
3.7%

3,697 $
14.50
2.8%

3,923
15.35
5.9%

18,798

$000
%

592 $
21%

616 $
22%

678 $
23%

534 $
17%

526
15%

(3,528) $
(16%)

2,343 $
18%

(1,186)
(3%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Hertford
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.4) or (16%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(3.5)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (16%)
18%
$2.3
2026-35 (10 Years)
(3%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(1.2)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.07 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.22 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Hertford
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Hertford
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$1.2 Million Lower Charges

3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hobgood
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

544
1,674
70%

545
3,350
70%

547
3,344
70%

550
3,354
70%

554
3,365
69%

557
3,377
69%

559
3,376
69%

563
3,386
69%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

361
66%

361
66%

361
66%

361
66%

361
65%

361
65%

361
65%

361
64%

370 $
11.03
3.0%

380 $
11.37
3.1%

393 $
11.71
3.0%

412 $
12.24
4.6%

461 $
13.66
11.5%

459 $
13.59
(0.5%)

456
13.46
(0.9%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

121
7.25

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.0730%
21 $
1.24

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

179
10.71

$19.29
3.27
0.21

251
7.49

260
7.78

270
8.05

278
8.26

282
8.35

293
8.69

309
9.12

57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.24

57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.24

57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.24

57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.24

57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.23

57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.23

57,000
0.0730%
42
1.23

292 $
8.73
2.8%

302 $
9.02
3.3%

312 $
9.29
3.0%

320 $
9.50
2.2%

324 $
9.59
0.9%

335 $
9.93
3.6%

351
10.35
4.3%

(37) $
(21%)

(77) $
(21%)

(78) $
(21%)

(81) $
(21%)

(92) $
(22%)

(137) $
(30%)

(124) $
(27%)

(105)
(23%)

142
8.49

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hobgood
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

567
3,403
68%

573
3,434
68%

579
3,452
68%

586
3,480
68%

593
3,509
68%

601
3,551
67%

609
3,580
67%

618
3,621
67%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

361
64%

361
63%

361
62%

361
62%

361
61%

361
60%

361
59%

361
58%

456 $
13.41
(0.3%)

385 $
11.22
(16.4%)

382 $
11.07
(1.3%)

329 $
9.45
(14.7%)

338 $
9.64
2.1%

353 $
9.95
3.2%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

319
9.39

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.22

57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.21

$000
/kWh
%

361 $
10.61
2.5%

388 $
11.30
6.5%

389 $
11.26
(0.3%)

393 $
11.29
0.3%

413 $
11.76
4.2%

425 $
11.97
1.7%

439 $
12.26
2.4%

473
13.07
6.6%

$000
%

(95) $
(21%)

3 $
1%

7 $
2%

64 $
20%

75 $
22%

72 $
20%

73 $
20%

105
29%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

$23.75
4.47
0.17

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

346
10.09

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

368
10.66

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

393
11.29

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

413
11.76

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

425
11.97

366 $
10.22
2.8%

368
10.16
(0.6%)

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

439
12.26

473
13.07

28,500
0.0730%
21
0.60

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hobgood
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

626
3,657
67%

633
3,694
67%

638
3,704
66%

643
3,724
66%

648
3,743
66%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

361
58%

361
57%

361
57%

361
56%

361
56%

382 $
10.44
2.7%

396 $
10.71
2.6%

405 $
10.92
2.0%

450 $
12.09
10.7%

487
13.02
7.7%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

492
13.46

511
13.83

531
14.35

550
14.77

585
15.63

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
3,373 $
1,807 $
5,181

2,383

2,242

4,625

329

329

2,242

4,954

$000
/kWh
%

492 $
13.46
3.0%

511 $
13.83
2.7%

531 $
14.35
3.8%

550 $
14.77
3.0%

585
15.63
5.8%

2,713

$000
%

111 $
29%

115 $
29%

127 $
31%

100 $
22%

98
20%

(661) $
(20%)

435 $
24%

(226)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Hobgood
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.1) or (21%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(0.7) - (20%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
24%
2026-35 (10 Years)
$0.4
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(0.2) (4%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$0.24 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.04 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Hobgood
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Hobgood
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$0.2 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hookerton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

1,152
2,996
59%

1,156
6,041
60%

1,159
6,039
60%

1,159
6,034
59%

1,160
6,038
59%

1,160
6,044
59%

1,161
6,029
59%

1,162
6,028
59%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

523
45%

523
45%

523
45%

523
45%

523
45%

523
45%

523
45%

523
45%

655 $
10.85
3.8%

682 $
11.29
4.1%

708 $
11.74
4.0%

736 $
12.19
3.9%

807 $
13.35
9.5%

806 $
13.36
0.1%

805
13.36
0.0%

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

238
7.94

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.1057%
30 $
1.01

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

313
10.45

$19.29
3.27
0.21

494
8.18

512
8.47

528
8.75

541
8.96

547
9.04

567
9.41

595
9.87

57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00

57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00

57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00

57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00

57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00

57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00

57,000
0.1057%
60
1.00

554 $
9.17
2.6%

572 $
9.47
3.2%

588 $
9.75
2.9%

601 $
9.96
2.1%

607 $
10.04
0.8%

627 $
10.41
3.6%

655
10.87
4.5%

(45) $
(14%)

(101) $
(15%)

(110) $
(16%)

(120) $
(17%)

(135) $
(18%)

(200) $
(25%)

(178) $
(22%)

(150)
(19%)

268
8.94

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hookerton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

1,163
6,033
59%

1,164
6,052
59%

1,167
6,054
59%

1,169
6,067
59%

1,171
6,079
59%

1,173
6,108
59%

1,177
6,120
59%

1,180
6,147
59%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

523
45%

523
45%

523
45%

523
45%

523
45%

523
45%

523
44%

523
44%

806 $
13.35
(0.1%)

714 $
11.80
(11.7%)

713 $
11.78
(0.1%)

646 $
10.64
(9.7%)

662 $
10.89
2.4%

680 $
11.14
2.2%

697 $
11.38
2.2%

701
11.41
0.2%

$28.90
4.66
0.17

$32.25
4.60
0.18

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

611
10.13

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00

57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00

$000
/kWh
%

672 $
11.13
2.4%

721 $
11.91
7.0%

728 $
12.02
0.9%

742 $
12.23
1.8%

773 $
12.72
4.0%

787 $
12.88
1.3%

805 $
13.15
2.1%

856
13.93
5.9%

$000
%

(134) $
(17%)

7 $
1%

14 $
2%

97 $
15%

111 $
17%

107 $
16%

108 $
16%

155
22%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

$23.75
4.47
0.17

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

661
10.92

698
11.52

742
12.23

773
12.72

787
12.88

805
13.15

856
13.93

28,500
0.1057%
30
0.50

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Hookerton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

1,183
6,170
60%

1,186
6,199
60%

1,188
6,201
60%

1,190
6,212
60%

1,192
6,223
60%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

523
44%

523
44%

523
44%

523
44%

523
44%

720 $
11.68
2.3%

740 $
11.93
2.2%

755 $
12.17
2.0%

821 $
13.22
8.6%

875
14.07
6.4%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

883
14.30

908
14.65

940
15.17

968
15.58

1,019
16.38

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
6,022 $
3,418 $
9,440

4,616

4,059

8,674

477

477

4,059

9,151

$000
/kWh
%

883 $
14.30
2.7%

908 $
14.65
2.4%

940 $
15.17
3.5%

968 $
15.58
2.7%

1,019
16.38
5.1%

5,092

$000
%

162 $
23%

169 $
23%

186 $
25%

146 $
18%

144
16%

(929) $
(15%)

641 $
19%

(289)
(3%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Hookerton
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

Cents/kWh

12
11
10
9
8

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.1) or (14%)

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(0.9) - (15%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
19%
2026-35 (10 Years)
$0.6
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(0.3) (3%)

5
4

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)

Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)

2
1
0
2015

Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$0.40 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.06 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Hookerton
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

Cents/kWh

12
11

10
9
8
7
6
5

Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Hookerton
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$0.3 Million Lower Charges

3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Kinston
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

67,184
232,596
79%

67,371
467,202
79%

67,552
467,004
79%

67,707
467,744
79%

67,894
468,734
79%

68,019
470,343
79%

68,195
470,099
79%

68,359
470,909
79%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

37,814
56%

37,814
56%

37,814
56%

37,814
56%

37,814
56%

37,814
56%

37,814
55%

37,814
55%

46,971 $
10.05
3.0%

48,409 $
10.37
3.1%

49,955 $
10.68
3.0%

51,964 $
11.09
3.8%

57,119 $
12.14
9.5%

56,929 $
12.11
(0.3%)

56,726
12.05
(0.5%)

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

18,062
7.77

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

22,712
9.76

$19.29
3.27
0.21

15,883
6.83

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

28,500 $
7.6434%
2,178 $
0.94

32,896
7.04

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

34,145
7.31

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

35,402
7.57

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

36,382
7.76

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

36,872
7.84

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

38,315
8.15

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

40,194
8.54

57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93

57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93

57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93

57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93

57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93

57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93

57,000
7.6434%
4,357
0.93

37,252 $
7.97
2.7%

38,501 $
8.24
3.4%

39,759 $
8.50
3.1%

40,738 $
8.69
2.2%

41,228 $
8.77
0.9%

42,672 $
9.08
3.6%

44,551
9.46
4.2%

(4,651) $
(20%)

(9,719) $
(21%)

(9,907) $
(20%)

(10,196) $
(20%)

(11,226) $
(22%)

(15,891) $
(28%)

(14,257) $
(25%)

(12,175)
(21%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Kinston
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

68,576
472,117
79%

68,803
474,547
79%

69,090
475,182
79%

69,354
476,781
78%

69,623
478,421
78%

69,897
481,252
79%

70,225
482,208
78%

70,556
484,351
78%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

37,814
55%

37,814
55%

37,814
55%

37,814
55%

37,814
54%

37,814
54%

37,814
54%

37,814
54%

56,741 $
12.02
(0.2%)

49,515 $
10.43
(13.2%)

49,201 $
10.35
(0.8%)

43,736 $
9.17
(11.4%)

44,831 $
9.37
2.2%

46,319 $
9.62
2.7%

47,620 $
9.88
2.6%

48,308
9.97
1.0%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$23.75
4.47
0.17
41,436
8.78

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

44,458
9.37

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

46,950
9.88

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

49,611
10.41

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

51,760
10.82

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

52,940
11.00

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

54,346
11.27

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

58,394
12.06

57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.92

57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.92

45,793 $
9.70
2.5%

48,814 $
10.29
6.1%

49,129 $
10.34
0.5%

49,611 $
10.41
0.6%

51,760 $
10.82
4.0%

52,940 $
11.00
1.7%

54,346 $
11.27
2.5%

58,394
12.06
7.0%

(10,948) $
(19%)

(700) $
(1%)

(73) $
(0%)

5,875 $
13%

6,929 $
15%

6,621 $
14%

6,726 $
14%

10,086
21%

28,500
7.6434%
2,178
0.46

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Kinston
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

70,834
486,097
78%

71,026
488,365
78%

71,179
488,014
78%

71,275
488,411
78%

71,371
488,808
78%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

37,814
53%

37,814
53%

37,814
53%

37,814
53%

37,814
53%

49,692 $
10.22
2.5%

51,146 $
10.47
2.4%

52,289 $
10.71
2.3%

57,130 $
11.70
9.2%

61,724
12.63
8.0%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

60,314
12.41

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

62,238
12.74

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

64,599
13.24

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

66,597
13.64

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
425,336 $
235,065 $
660,401

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

71,038
14.53

$000
%
$000
/kWh

310,269

34,483

$000
/kWh
%

60,314 $
12.41
2.9%

62,238 $
12.74
2.7%

64,599 $
13.24
3.9%

66,597 $
13.64
3.0%

71,038
14.53
6.6%

344,752

$000
%

10,622 $
21%

11,092 $
22%

12,310 $
24%

9,467 $
17%

9,313
15%

(80,584) $
(19%)

276,195

276,195

586,464

34,483

620,947

41,130 $
17%

(39,454)
(6%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Kinston
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(9.3) or (20%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(80.6) - (19%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
17%
$41.1 2026-35 (10 Years)
(6%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(39.5) -

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$22.54 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $4.36 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Kinston
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Kinston
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$39.5 Million Lower Charges

6% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: La Grange
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

4,982
13,666
63%

4,983
27,422
63%

4,986
27,382
63%

4,991
27,425
63%

4,998
27,487
63%

5,003
27,596
63%

5,010
27,582
63%

5,018
27,651
63%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

2,108
42%

2,108
42%

2,108
42%

2,108
42%

2,108
42%

2,108
42%

2,108
42%

2,108
42%

2,842 $
10.36
4.1%

2,955 $
10.79
4.1%

3,076 $
11.22
3.9%

3,192 $
11.61
3.5%

3,483 $
12.62
8.7%

3,483 $
12.63
0.1%

3,493
12.63
0.0%

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

1,053
7.70

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.4261%
121 $
0.89

$000
/kWh
%

1,174
8.59

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

1,361
9.96

$19.29
3.27
0.21

2,178
7.94

2,254
8.23

2,331
8.50

2,391
8.70

2,421
8.77

2,515
9.12

2,642
9.55

57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.89

57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.89

57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.89

57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.88

57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.88

57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.88

57,000
0.4261%
243
0.88

2,421 $
8.83
2.7%

2,497 $
9.12
3.3%

2,573 $
9.38
2.9%

2,634 $
9.58
2.1%

2,664 $
9.65
0.8%

2,757 $
10.00
3.6%

2,885
10.43
4.4%

(187) $
(14%)

(421) $
(15%)

(458) $
(15%)

(503) $
(16%)

(559) $
(18%)

(819) $
(24%)

(726) $
(21%)

(609)
(17%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: La Grange
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

5,030
27,748
63%

5,044
27,934
63%

5,060
27,995
63%

5,076
28,128
63%

5,093
28,266
63%

5,112
28,491
64%

5,132
28,586
64%

5,154
28,765
64%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

2,108
42%

2,108
42%

2,108
42%

2,108
42%

2,108
41%

2,108
41%

2,108
41%

2,108
41%

3,164 $
11.30
0.1%

2,913 $
10.36
(8.4%)

3,001 $
10.62
2.5%

3,091 $
10.85
2.2%

3,172 $
11.09
2.3%

3,230
11.23
1.2%

$28.90
4.66
0.17

$32.25
4.60
0.18

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

2,720
9.80

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.88

57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.87

$000
/kWh
%

2,963 $
10.68
2.4%

3,185 $
11.40
6.8%

3,231 $
11.54
1.2%

3,308 $
11.76
1.9%

3,453 $
12.22
3.9%

3,526 $
12.37
1.3%

3,612 $
12.63
2.1%

3,857
13.41
6.1%

$000
%

(538) $
(15%)

30 $
1%

67 $
2%

394 $
14%

452 $
15%

435 $
14%

440 $
14%

627
19%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

3,501 $
12.62
(0.1%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

3,155 $
11.29
(10.5%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

2,942
10.53

3,109
11.11

3,308
11.76

3,453
12.22

3,526
12.37

3,612
12.63

3,857
13.41

28,500
0.4261%
121
0.43

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: La Grange
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

5,173
28,919
64%

5,188
29,112
64%

5,198
29,129
64%

5,208
29,209
64%

5,218
29,290
64%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

2,108
41%

2,108
41%

2,108
41%

2,108
40%

2,108
40%

3,326 $
11.50
2.4%

3,426 $
11.77
2.3%

3,506 $
12.03
2.3%

3,794 $
12.99
7.9%

4,054
13.84
6.6%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

3,983
13.77

4,108
14.11

4,256
14.61

4,386
15.01

4,638
15.84

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
26,188 $
15,673 $
41,862

20,450

18,275

38,725

1,922

1,922

18,275

40,647

$000
/kWh
%

3,983 $
13.77
2.7%

4,108 $
14.11
2.5%

4,256 $
14.61
3.6%

4,386 $
15.01
2.8%

4,638
15.84
5.5%

22,372

$000
%

657 $
20%

682 $
20%

751 $
21%

592 $
16%

584
14%

(3,816) $
(15%)

2,602 $
17%

(1,215)
(3%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: La Grange
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.4) or (14%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(3.8)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (15%)
17%
$2.6
2026-35 (10 Years)
(3%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(1.2)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.30 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.24 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: La Grange
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: La Grange
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$1.2 Million Lower Charges

3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Laurinburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

22,337
69,795
71%

22,369
140,266
72%

22,435
140,542
72%

22,459
140,773
72%

22,493
141,095
72%

22,479
141,305
72%

22,530
141,416
72%

22,550
141,593
72%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

10,876
49%

10,876
49%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

14,225 $
10.14
3.4%

14,744 $
10.49
3.4%

15,273 $
10.85
3.4%

15,860 $
11.24
3.6%

17,324 $
12.26
9.1%

17,308 $
12.24
(0.2%)

17,289
12.21
(0.2%)

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

5,018
7.19

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
2.1984%
627 $
0.90

57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89

57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89

57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89

57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89

57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89

57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89

57,000
2.1984%
1,253
0.88

$000
/kWh
%

5,645
8.09

11,644 $
8.30
2.6%

12,047 $
8.57
3.3%

12,427 $
8.83
3.0%

12,725 $
9.02
2.2%

12,851 $
9.09
0.8%

13,312 $
9.41
3.5%

13,898
9.82
4.3%

$000
%

(1,201) $
(18%)

(2,581) $
(18%)

(2,698) $
(18%)

(2,846) $
(19%)

(3,135) $
(20%)

(4,473) $
(26%)

(3,996) $
(23%)

(3,391)
(20%)

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

6,846
9.81

$19.29
3.27
0.21

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

10,391
7.41

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

10,794
7.68

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

11,174
7.94

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

11,472
8.13

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

11,598
8.21

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

12,059
8.53

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

12,645
8.93

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Laurinburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

22,573
141,798
72%

22,565
142,078
72%

22,620
142,230
72%

22,644
142,454
72%

22,667
142,654
72%

22,661
142,958
72%

22,715
143,097
72%

22,739
143,325
72%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

17,290 $
12.19
(0.1%)

15,295 $
10.77
(11.7%)

15,252 $
10.72
(0.4%)

13,767 $
9.66
(9.9%)

14,102 $
9.89
2.3%

14,479 $
10.13
2.5%

14,843 $
10.37
2.4%

15,027
10.48
1.1%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$23.75
4.47
0.17
13,009
9.17

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

13,954
9.82

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

14,726
10.35

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

15,567
10.93

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

16,202
11.36

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

16,489
11.53

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

16,882
11.80

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

18,031
12.58

57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.88

57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.88

14,262 $
10.06
2.5%

15,207 $
10.70
6.4%

15,353 $
10.79
0.9%

15,567 $
10.93
1.2%

16,202 $
11.36
3.9%

16,489 $
11.53
1.6%

16,882 $
11.80
2.3%

18,031
12.58
6.6%

(3,028) $
(18%)

(89) $
(1%)

100 $
1%

1,800 $
13%

2,100 $
15%

2,010 $
14%

2,039 $
14%

3,004
20%

28,500
2.1984%
627
0.44

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Laurinburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

22,759
143,499
72%

22,743
143,696
72%

22,780
143,658
72%

22,777
143,590
72%

22,773
143,521
72%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

10,876
48%

15,409 $
10.74
2.4%

15,792 $
10.99
2.3%

16,145 $
11.24
2.3%

17,533 $
12.21
8.6%

18,816
13.11
7.4%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

18,566
12.94

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

19,082
13.28

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

19,787
13.77

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

20,356
14.18

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
129,710 $
72,994 $
202,704

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

21,595
15.05

$000
%
$000
/kWh

97,707

85,315

183,022

9,918

9,918

85,315

192,940

$000
/kWh
%

18,566 $
12.94
2.8%

19,082 $
13.28
2.6%

19,787 $
13.77
3.7%

20,356 $
14.18
2.9%

21,595
15.05
6.1%

107,625

$000
%

3,156 $
20%

3,290 $
21%

3,641 $
23%

2,822 $
16%

2,779
15%

(22,085) $
(17%)

12,321 $
17%

(9,764)
(5%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Laurinburg
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(2.4) or (18%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(22.1) - (17%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
17%
$12.3 2026-35 (10 Years)
$(9.8) (5%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$5.90 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $1.25 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Laurinburg
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Laurinburg
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$9.8 Million Lower Charges

5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Louisburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

9,101
28,441
71%

9,163
57,643
72%

9,255
58,147
72%

9,329
58,766
72%

9,401
59,384
72%

9,450
60,066
73%

9,537
60,517
72%

9,606
61,093
73%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

4,178
46%

4,178
46%

4,178
45%

4,178
45%

4,178
44%

4,178
44%

4,178
44%

4,178
43%

5,668 $
9.83
3.3%

5,917 $
10.18
3.5%

6,179 $
10.51
3.3%

6,444 $
10.85
3.2%

7,049 $
11.74
8.2%

7,087 $
11.71
(0.2%)

7,135
11.68
(0.3%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

2,045
7.19

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.8445%
241 $
0.85

$000
/kWh
%

2,285
8.04

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

2,708
9.52

$19.29
3.27
0.21

4,263
7.40

4,459
7.67

4,653
7.92

4,812
8.10

4,903
8.16

5,133
8.48

5,421
8.87

57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.84

57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.83

57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.82

57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.81

57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.80

57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.80

57,000
0.8445%
481
0.79

4,745 $
8.23
2.4%

4,941 $
8.50
3.2%

5,134 $
8.74
2.8%

5,293 $
8.91
2.0%

5,385 $
8.96
0.6%

5,614 $
9.28
3.5%

5,903
9.66
4.1%

(423) $
(16%)

(924) $
(16%)

(977) $
(17%)

(1,044) $
(17%)

(1,151) $
(18%)

(1,665) $
(24%)

(1,473) $
(21%)

(1,233)
(17%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Louisburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

9,679
61,713
73%

9,735
62,484
73%

9,834
63,049
73%

9,913
63,728
73%

9,992
64,414
74%

10,053
65,241
74%

10,158
65,857
74%

10,244
66,612
74%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

4,178
43%

4,178
43%

4,178
42%

4,178
42%

4,178
42%

4,178
42%

4,178
41%

4,178
41%

6,567 $
10.42
(0.0%)

6,100 $
9.57
(8.1%)

6,324 $
9.82
2.6%

6,549 $
10.04
2.2%

6,779 $
10.29
2.5%

7,010
10.52
2.2%

$28.90
4.66
0.17

$32.25
4.60
0.18

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

5,620
9.11

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.78

57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.77

$000
/kWh
%

6,101 $
9.89
2.3%

6,556 $
10.49
6.1%

6,702 $
10.63
1.3%

6,880 $
10.80
1.6%

7,218 $
11.21
3.8%

7,409 $
11.36
1.3%

7,651 $
11.62
2.3%

8,249
12.38
6.6%

$000
%

(1,082) $
(15%)

45 $
1%

134 $
2%

780 $
13%

894 $
14%

860 $
13%

872 $
13%

1,239
18%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

7,183 $
11.64
(0.3%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

6,512 $
10.42
(10.5%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

6,075
9.72

6,461
10.25

6,880
10.80

7,218
11.21

7,409
11.36

7,651
11.62

8,249
12.38

28,500
0.8445%
241
0.38

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Louisburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

10,326
67,321
74%

10,379
68,088
75%

10,469
68,551
75%

10,536
69,116
75%

10,602
69,685
75%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

4,178
40%

4,178
40%

4,178
40%

4,178
40%

4,178
39%

7,268 $
10.80
2.6%

7,529 $
11.06
2.4%

7,790 $
11.36
2.8%

8,449 $
12.22
7.6%

9,140
13.12
7.3%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

8,565
12.72

8,876
13.04

9,273
13.53

9,616
13.91

10,301
14.78

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
53,086 $
33,997 $
87,083

41,338

39,140

80,479

3,810

3,810

39,140

84,289

$000
/kWh
%

8,565 $
12.72
2.7%

8,876 $
13.04
2.5%

9,273 $
13.53
3.8%

9,616 $
13.91
2.9%

10,301
14.78
6.2%

45,148

$000
%

1,297 $
18%

1,347 $
18%

1,482 $
19%

1,167 $
14%

1,160
13%

(7,938) $
(15%)

5,143 $
15%

(2,795)
(3%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Louisburg
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.8) or (16%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(7.9)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (15%)
15%
$5.1
2026-35 (10 Years)
(3%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(2.8)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$2.23 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.48 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Louisburg
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Louisburg
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$2.8 Million Lower Charges

3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Lumberton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

45,943
147,072
73%

45,962
295,041
73%

45,987
294,537
73%

45,993
294,580
73%

46,016
294,799
73%

46,010
295,428
73%

46,033
294,893
73%

46,047
294,997
73%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

30,021 $
10.18
3.3%

31,000 $
10.53
3.4%

32,040 $
10.88
3.3%

33,256 $
11.28
3.7%

36,407 $
12.32
9.2%

36,291 $
12.31
(0.1%)

36,191
12.27
(0.3%)

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

11,788
8.01

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

14,484
9.85

$19.29
3.27
0.21

10,444
7.10

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

28,500 $
4.7153%
1,344 $
0.91

21,596
7.32

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

22,367
7.59

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

23,133
7.85

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

23,721
8.05

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

23,996
8.12

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

24,895
8.44

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

26,083
8.84

57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91

57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91

57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91

57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91

57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91

57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91

57,000
4.7153%
2,688
0.91

24,283 $
8.23
2.7%

25,055 $
8.51
3.4%

25,820 $
8.77
3.0%

26,408 $
8.96
2.2%

26,684 $
9.03
0.8%

27,583 $
9.35
3.6%

28,771
9.75
4.3%

(2,696) $
(19%)

(5,738) $
(19%)

(5,946) $
(19%)

(6,220) $
(19%)

(6,847) $
(21%)

(9,723) $
(27%)

(8,708) $
(24%)

(7,420)
(21%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Lumberton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

46,067
295,167
73%

46,077
295,965
73%

46,119
295,640
73%

46,143
295,860
73%

46,166
296,062
73%

46,175
296,860
73%

46,219
296,558
73%

46,254
296,890
73%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
51%

23,328
50%

23,328
50%

36,161 $
12.25
(0.1%)

31,796 $
10.74
(12.3%)

31,600 $
10.69
(0.5%)

28,288 $
9.56
(10.5%)

28,928 $
9.77
2.2%

29,733 $
10.02
2.5%

30,428 $
10.26
2.4%

30,720
10.35
0.8%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$23.75
4.47
0.17
26,816
9.09

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

28,763
9.72

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

30,297
10.25

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

31,988
10.81

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

33,273
11.24

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

33,886
11.41

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

34,643
11.68

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

37,008
12.47

57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91

57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91

29,504 $
10.00
2.5%

31,451 $
10.63
6.3%

31,641 $
10.70
0.7%

31,988 $
10.81
1.0%

33,273 $
11.24
3.9%

33,886 $
11.41
1.6%

34,643 $
11.68
2.3%

37,008
12.47
6.7%

(6,657) $
(18%)

(346) $
(1%)

42 $
0%

3,699 $
13%

4,344 $
15%

4,153 $
14%

4,215 $
14%

6,288
20%

28,500
4.7153%
1,344
0.45

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Lumberton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

46,281
297,132
73%

46,280
297,810
73%

46,299
297,219
73%

46,296
297,133
73%

46,293
297,048
73%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

23,328
50%

23,328
50%

23,328
50%

23,328
50%

23,328
50%

31,479 $
10.59
2.4%

32,286 $
10.84
2.3%

32,929 $
11.08
2.2%

35,863 $
12.07
8.9%

38,551
12.98
7.5%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

38,095
12.82

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

39,191
13.16

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

40,587
13.66

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

41,766
14.06

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
271,929 $
149,472 $
421,401

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

44,354
14.93

$000
%
$000
/kWh

202,004

21,273

$000
/kWh
%

38,095 $
12.82
2.9%

39,191 $
13.16
2.6%

40,587 $
13.66
3.8%

41,766 $
14.06
2.9%

44,354
14.93
6.2%

223,276

$000
%

6,617 $
21%

6,905 $
21%

7,658 $
23%

5,903 $
16%

5,803
15%

(48,653) $
(18%)

175,159

175,159

377,162

21,273

398,435

25,687 $
17%

(22,966)
(5%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Lumberton
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(5.4) or (19%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(48.7) - (18%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
17%
$25.7 2026-35 (10 Years)
(5%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(23.0) -

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$13.41 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $2.69 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Lumberton
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Lumberton
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$23.0 Million Lower Charges

5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: New Bern


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

77,556
234,890
69%

77,687
472,927
69%

77,995
473,759
69%

78,249
475,679
69%

78,529
478,300
70%

78,678
481,575
70%

79,082
483,360
70%

79,385
486,192
70%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

32,835
42%

32,835
42%

32,835
42%

32,835
42%

32,835
42%

32,835
42%

32,835
42%

32,835
41%

47,287 $
10.00
3.6%

49,174 $
10.38
3.8%

51,170 $
10.76
3.6%

53,101 $
11.10
3.2%

57,713 $
11.98
7.9%

57,902 $
11.98
(0.0%)

58,207
11.97
(0.1%)

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

19,055
8.11

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

22,661
9.65

$19.29
3.27
0.21

17,163
7.31

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

28,500 $
6.6370%
1,892 $
0.81

35,581
7.52

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

36,968
7.80

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

38,348
8.06

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

39,465
8.25

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

40,053
8.32

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

41,765
8.64

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

43,969
9.04

57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.80

57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.80

57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.80

57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.79

57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.79

57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.78

57,000
6.6370%
3,783
0.78

39,364 $
8.32
2.6%

40,751 $
8.60
3.3%

42,131 $
8.86
3.0%

43,248 $
9.04
2.1%

43,836 $
9.10
0.7%

45,548 $
9.42
3.5%

47,752
9.82
4.2%

(3,606) $
(16%)

(7,923) $
(17%)

(8,423) $
(17%)

(9,039) $
(18%)

(9,853) $
(19%)

(13,877) $
(24%)

(12,354) $
(21%)

(10,455)
(18%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: New Bern


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

79,727
489,428
70%

79,977
493,835
70%

80,452
496,391
70%

80,811
499,842
71%

81,177
503,375
71%

81,456
508,154
71%

81,957
510,985
71%

82,369
515,035
71%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

32,835
41%

32,835
41%

32,835
41%

32,835
41%

32,835
40%

32,835
40%

32,835
40%

32,835
40%

58,460 $
11.94
(0.2%)

53,207 $
10.77
(9.8%)

53,529 $
10.78
0.1%

49,804 $
9.96
(7.6%)

51,415 $
10.21
2.5%

53,007 $
10.43
2.1%

54,573 $
10.68
2.4%

56,120
10.90
2.0%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$23.75
4.47
0.17
45,417
9.28

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

49,005
9.92

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

51,917
10.46

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

55,147
11.03

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

57,653
11.45

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

58,975
11.61

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

60,625
11.86

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

65,061
12.63

57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.77

57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.77

49,201 $
10.05
2.4%

52,788 $
10.69
6.3%

53,809 $
10.84
1.4%

55,147 $
11.03
1.8%

57,653 $
11.45
3.8%

58,975 $
11.61
1.3%

60,625 $
11.86
2.2%

65,061
12.63
6.5%

(9,260) $
(16%)

(419) $
(1%)

280 $
1%

5,343 $
11%

6,238 $
12%

5,968 $
11%

6,052 $
11%

8,941
16%

28,500
6.6370%
1,892
0.38

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: New Bern


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

82,744
518,684
72%

82,967
522,917
72%

83,350
524,445
72%

83,583
526,579
72%

83,817
528,720
72%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

32,835
40%

32,835
40%

32,835
39%

32,835
39%

32,835
39%

57,911 $
11.17
2.5%

59,739 $
11.42
2.3%

61,463 $
11.72
2.6%

66,305 $
12.59
7.4%

71,221
13.47
7.0%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

67,305
12.98

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

69,525
13.30

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

72,314
13.79

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

74,673
14.18

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
436,709 $
271,631 $
708,340

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

79,521
15.04

$000
%
$000
/kWh

338,173

29,942

$000
/kWh
%

67,305 $
12.98
2.7%

69,525 $
13.30
2.5%

72,314 $
13.79
3.7%

74,673 $
14.18
2.8%

79,521
15.04
6.1%

368,115

$000
%

9,393 $
16%

9,786 $
16%

10,851 $
18%

8,368 $
13%

8,300
12%

(68,593) $
(16%)

308,273

308,273

646,446

29,942

676,388

36,641 $
13%

(31,952)
(5%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: New Bern


Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(7.2) or (16%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(68.6) - (16%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
13%
$36.6 2026-35 (10 Years)
(5%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(32.0) -

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$16.56 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $3.78 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: New Bern


Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: New Bern


Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$32.0 Million Lower Charges

5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Pikeville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

1,619
4,433
63%

1,628
8,941
63%

1,629
8,940
63%

1,630
8,940
63%

1,633
8,951
63%

1,635
8,969
63%

1,635
8,958
63%

1,637
8,967
63%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

797
49%

797
49%

797
49%

797
49%

797
49%

797
49%

797
49%

797
49%

963 $
10.77
3.6%

999 $
11.17
3.8%

1,036 $
11.59
3.7%

1,078 $
12.05
4.0%

1,186 $
13.23
9.8%

1,183 $
13.21
(0.1%)

1,182
13.18
(0.2%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

342
7.71

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.1611%
46 $
1.04

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

461
10.39

$19.29
3.27
0.21

711
7.95

736
8.24

761
8.51

780
8.71

789
8.80

819
9.14

859
9.59

57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.03

57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.03

57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.03

57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.03

57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.02

57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.03

57,000
0.1611%
92
1.02

803 $
8.98
2.6%

828 $
9.26
3.2%

852 $
9.53
2.9%

872 $
9.74
2.1%

881 $
9.82
0.9%

911 $
10.17
3.5%

951
10.61
4.4%

(73) $
(16%)

(160) $
(17%)

(170) $
(17%)

(184) $
(18%)

(207) $
(19%)

(305) $
(26%)

(273) $
(23%)

(230)
(19%)

388
8.75

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Pikeville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

1,641
8,986
63%

1,645
9,023
63%

1,648
9,035
63%

1,653
9,069
63%

1,658
9,105
63%

1,665
9,170
63%

1,672
9,214
63%

1,681
9,283
63%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

797
49%

797
48%

797
48%

797
48%

797
48%

797
48%

797
48%

797
47%

1,182 $
13.16
(0.2%)

1,038 $
11.50
(12.6%)

1,034 $
11.45
(0.5%)

927 $
10.22
(10.7%)

951 $
10.45
2.2%

981 $
10.70
2.4%

1,008 $
10.94
2.2%

1,017
10.95
0.2%

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

884
9.84

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.02

57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.02

$000
/kWh
%

976 $
10.86
2.4%

1,047 $
11.61
6.9%

1,055 $
11.67
0.6%

1,073 $
11.83
1.3%

1,119 $
12.29
3.9%

1,143 $
12.46
1.4%

1,171 $
12.71
2.0%

1,252
13.49
6.1%

$000
%

(206) $
(17%)

9 $
1%

20 $
2%

146 $
16%

168 $
18%

162 $
16%

164 $
16%

235
23%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

$23.75
4.47
0.17

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

955
10.59

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

1,009
11.16

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

1,073
11.83

1,119
12.29

1,143
12.46

1,171
12.71

1,252
13.49

28,500
0.1611%
46
0.51

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Pikeville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

1,689
9,349
63%

1,698
9,423
63%

1,704
9,463
63%

1,712
9,523
64%

1,720
9,583
64%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

797
47%

797
47%

797
47%

797
47%

797
46%

1,048 $
11.21
2.4%

1,081 $
11.47
2.3%

1,107 $
11.70
2.0%

1,213 $
12.74
8.9%

1,304
13.61
6.8%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

kW
%
$

1,294
13.85

1,337
14.19

1,389
14.68

1,436
15.08

1,523
15.89

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
8,822 $
4,974 $
13,795

6,659

5,946

12,605

727

727

7,386

5,946

13,332

$000
/kWh
%

1,294 $
13.85
2.7%

1,337 $
14.19
2.5%

1,389 $
14.68
3.4%

1,436 $
15.08
2.7%

1,523
15.89
5.4%

$000
%

246 $
23%

256 $
24%

282 $
25%

222 $
18%

218
17%

(1,435) $
(16%)

972 $
20%

(463)
(3%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Pikeville
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.1) or (16%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(1.4)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (16%)
20%
$1.0
2026-35 (10 Years)
(3%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(0.5)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$0.53 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.09 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Pikeville
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Pikeville
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$0.5 Million Lower Charges

3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Red Springs


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

5,746
18,417
73%

5,775
37,127
73%

5,790
37,212
73%

5,808
37,366
73%

5,830
37,567
74%

5,854
37,806
74%

5,868
37,890
74%

5,888
38,060
74%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

2,721
47%

2,721
47%

2,721
47%

2,721
47%

2,721
47%

2,721
46%

2,721
46%

2,721
46%

3,635 $
9.79
3.4%

3,771 $
10.13
3.5%

3,915 $
10.48
3.4%

4,072 $
10.84
3.4%

4,454 $
11.78
8.7%

4,455 $
11.76
(0.2%)

4,464
11.73
(0.2%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

1,307
7.10

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.5500%
157 $
0.85

$000
/kWh
%

1,464
7.95

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

1,744
9.47

$19.29
3.27
0.21

2,715
7.31

2,821
7.58

2,928
7.84

3,014
8.02

3,062
8.10

3,186
8.41

3,350
8.80

57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.84

57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.84

57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.84

57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.83

57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.83

57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.83

57,000
0.5500%
314
0.82

3,029 $
8.16
2.6%

3,134 $
8.42
3.2%

3,241 $
8.67
3.0%

3,328 $
8.86
2.1%

3,376 $
8.93
0.8%

3,500 $
9.24
3.5%

3,664
9.63
4.2%

(280) $
(16%)

(606) $
(17%)

(636) $
(17%)

(674) $
(17%)

(744) $
(18%)

(1,078) $
(24%)

(955) $
(21%)

(800)
(18%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Red Springs


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

5,910
38,246
74%

5,937
38,522
74%

5,954
38,643
74%

5,976
38,832
74%

5,997
39,014
74%

6,023
39,283
74%

6,039
39,394
74%

6,062
39,599
75%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

2,721
46%

2,721
46%

2,721
46%

2,721
46%

2,721
45%

2,721
45%

2,721
45%

2,721
45%

4,008 $
10.37
(0.3%)

3,662 $
9.43
(9.1%)

3,769 $
9.66
2.5%

3,891 $
9.90
2.5%

3,996 $
10.14
2.4%

4,087
10.32
1.7%

$28.90
4.66
0.17

$32.25
4.60
0.18

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

3,458
9.04

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.82

57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.81

$000
/kWh
%

3,771 $
9.86
2.4%

4,037 $
10.48
6.3%

4,091 $
10.59
1.0%

4,167 $
10.73
1.4%

4,350 $
11.15
3.9%

4,449 $
11.32
1.6%

4,562 $
11.58
2.2%

4,893
12.36
6.7%

$000
%

(705) $
(16%)

30 $
1%

83 $
2%

506 $
14%

580 $
15%

558 $
14%

565 $
14%

805
20%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

4,476 $
11.70
(0.2%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

4,008 $
10.40
(11.1%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

3,724
9.67

3,935
10.18

4,167
10.73

4,350
11.15

4,449
11.32

4,562
11.58

4,893
12.36

28,500
0.5500%
157
0.41

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Red Springs


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

6,083
39,779
75%

6,104
40,008
75%

6,113
40,032
75%

6,124
40,120
75%

6,136
40,209
75%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

2,721
45%

2,721
45%

2,721
45%

2,721
44%

2,721
44%

4,210 $
10.58
2.5%

4,341 $
10.85
2.5%

4,450 $
11.12
2.5%

4,826 $
12.03
8.2%

5,200
12.93
7.5%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

5,053
12.70

5,218
13.04

5,415
13.53

5,585
13.92

5,951
14.80

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
33,420 $
19,829 $
53,249

25,775

23,170

48,945

2,481

2,481

23,170

51,426

$000
/kWh
%

5,053 $
12.70
2.8%

5,218 $
13.04
2.7%

5,415 $
13.53
3.7%

5,585 $
13.92
2.9%

5,951
14.80
6.3%

28,256

$000
%

843 $
20%

876 $
20%

964 $
22%

759 $
16%

751
14%

(5,163) $
(15%)

3,341 $
17%

(1,823)
(3%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Red Springs


Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.6) or (16%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(5.2)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (15%)
17%
$3.3
2026-35 (10 Years)
(3%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(1.8)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.51 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.31 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Red Springs


Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Red Springs


Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$1.8 Million Lower Charges

3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Robersonville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

3,992
13,931
80%

3,997
27,971
80%

4,004
27,951
80%

4,010
27,996
80%

4,019
28,072
80%

4,024
28,179
80%

4,032
28,178
80%

4,040
28,242
80%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

2,096
53%

2,096
52%

2,096
52%

2,096
52%

2,096
52%

2,096
52%

2,096
52%

2,096
52%

2,692 $
9.62
3.2%

2,778 $
9.94
3.3%

2,871 $
10.25
3.2%

2,984 $
10.63
3.7%

3,271 $
11.61
9.2%

3,263 $
11.58
(0.2%)

3,257
11.53
(0.4%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

948
6.80

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.4237%
121 $
0.87

$000
/kWh
%

1,068
7.67

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

1,300
9.33

$19.29
3.27
0.21

1,961
7.01

2,034
7.28

2,108
7.53

2,167
7.72

2,196
7.79

2,282
8.10

2,394
8.48

57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86

57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86

57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86

57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86

57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86

57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86

57,000
0.4237%
242
0.86

2,202 $
7.87
2.7%

2,275 $
8.14
3.4%

2,350 $
8.39
3.1%

2,408 $
8.58
2.2%

2,438 $
8.65
0.8%

2,524 $
8.96
3.5%

2,635
9.33
4.2%

(231) $
(18%)

(490) $
(18%)

(503) $
(18%)

(521) $
(18%)

(576) $
(19%)

(833) $
(25%)

(739) $
(23%)

(621)
(19%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Robersonville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

4,050
28,330
80%

4,061
28,491
80%

4,074
28,544
80%

4,086
28,652
80%

4,098
28,759
80%

4,110
28,935
80%

4,125
29,000
80%

4,139
29,137
80%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

2,096
52%

2,096
52%

2,096
51%

2,096
51%

2,096
51%

2,096
51%

2,096
51%

2,096
51%

2,634 $
9.16
2.3%

2,721 $
9.40
2.7%

2,798 $
9.65
2.6%

2,854
9.80
1.5%

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

2,468
8.71

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.85

57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.85

$000
/kWh
%

2,710 $
9.56
2.5%

2,888 $
10.14
6.0%

2,915 $
10.21
0.7%

2,950 $
10.30
0.8%

3,076 $
10.70
3.9%

3,146 $
10.87
1.6%

3,229 $
11.13
2.4%

3,470
11.91
7.0%

$000
%

(550) $
(17%)

18 $
1%

57 $
2%

384 $
15%

442 $
17%

425 $
16%

431 $
15%

616
22%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

3,259 $
11.50
(0.2%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

2,870 $
10.07
(12.4%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

2,646
9.29

2,858 $
10.01
(0.6%)

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

2,794
9.79

2,566 $
8.95
(10.6%)

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

2,950
10.30

3,076
10.70

3,146
10.87

3,229
11.13

3,470
11.91

28,500
0.4237%
121
0.42

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Robersonville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

4,152
29,248
80%

4,160
29,389
81%

4,167
29,371
80%

4,171
29,402
80%

4,175
29,432
80%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

2,096
50%

2,096
50%

2,096
50%

2,096
50%

2,096
50%

2,938 $
10.04
2.5%

3,026 $
10.30
2.5%

3,099 $
10.55
2.5%

3,377 $
11.49
8.8%

3,654
12.41
8.1%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

3,584
12.25

3,698
12.58

3,838
13.07

3,958
13.46

4,228
14.36

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
24,441 $
13,863 $
38,303

18,480

16,416

34,896

1,911

1,911

16,416

36,807

$000
/kWh
%

3,584 $
12.25
2.9%

3,698 $
12.58
2.7%

3,838 $
13.07
3.9%

3,958 $
13.46
3.0%

4,228
14.36
6.7%

20,391

$000
%

646 $
22%

672 $
22%

739 $
24%

581 $
17%

574
16%

(4,049) $
(17%)

2,553 $
18%

(1,496)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Robersonville
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.5) or (18%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(4.0)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (17%)
18%
$2.6
2026-35 (10 Years)
(4%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(1.5)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.32 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.24 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Robersonville
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Robersonville
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$1.5 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Rocky Mount


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

102,872
356,771
79%

103,098
714,920
79%

103,233
713,731
79%

103,241
714,053
79%

103,162
714,518
79%

103,110
715,815
79%

103,143
714,724
79%

103,160
715,136
79%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

74,043 $
10.36
2.9%

76,083 $
10.66
2.9%

78,275 $
10.96
2.8%

81,473 $
11.40
4.0%

90,025 $
12.58
10.3%

89,488 $
12.52
(0.4%)

88,828
12.42
(0.8%)

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

28,019
7.85

57,693 $
8.07
2.8%

59,536 $
8.34
3.4%

61,369 $
8.59
3.0%

62,729 $
8.78
2.1%

63,366 $
8.85
0.8%

65,466 $
9.16
3.5%

68,212
9.54
4.1%

$000
%

(7,906) $
(22%)

(16,350) $
(22%)

(16,547) $
(22%)

(16,906) $
(22%)

(18,744) $
(23%)

(26,659) $
(30%)

(24,022) $
(27%)

(20,616)
(23%)

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

35,925
10.07

$19.29
3.27
0.21
24,342
6.82

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

50,339
7.04

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

52,182
7.31

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

54,015
7.56

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

55,374
7.75

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

56,011
7.82

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

58,111
8.13

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

60,858
8.51

28,500 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
$
3,677 $
7,355 $
7,355 $
7,355 $
7,355 $
7,355 $
7,355 $
7,355
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Rocky Mount


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

103,200
716,088
79%

103,407
718,752
79%

103,495
719,163
79%

103,554
720,876
79%

103,640
722,707
80%

103,700
726,137
80%

103,812
727,236
80%

103,471
729,945
81%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
61%

63,835
62%

88,655 $
12.38
(0.3%)

75,774 $
10.54
(14.8%)

74,814 $
10.40
(1.3%)

64,833 $
8.99
(13.5%)

66,109 $
9.15
1.7%

68,226 $
9.40
2.7%

69,993 $
9.62
2.4%

70,027
9.59
(0.3%)

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

69,972 $
9.77
2.4%

74,428 $
10.36
6.0%

74,363 $
10.34
(0.1%)

74,505 $
10.34
(0.0%)

77,571 $
10.73
3.9%

79,169 $
10.90
1.6%

81,117 $
11.15
2.3%

86,847
11.90
6.7%

$000
%

(18,683) $
(21%)

(1,346) $
(2%)

(451) $
(1%)

9,672 $
15%

11,462 $
17%

10,943 $
16%

11,124 $
16%

16,820
24%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$23.75
4.47
0.17
62,617
8.74

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

67,074
9.33

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

70,686
9.83

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

74,505
10.34

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

77,571
10.73

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

79,169
10.90

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

81,117
11.15

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

86,847
11.90

57,000 $
57,000 $
28,500
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
$
7,355 $
7,355 $
3,677
1.03
1.02
0.51

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Rocky Mount


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

103,519
732,128
81%

103,488
734,921
81%

103,460
734,292
81%

103,345
734,735
81%

103,229
735,179
81%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

63,835
62%

71,804 $
9.81
2.2%

73,706 $
10.03
2.3%

75,076 $
10.22
1.9%

82,733 $
11.26
10.1%

89,694
12.20
8.3%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

89,538
12.23

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

92,244
12.55

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

95,663
13.03

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

98,533
13.41

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
665,319 $
342,728 $ 1,008,047

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

105,174
14.31

$000
%
$000
/kWh

471,343

58,211

529,555

$000
/kWh
%

89,538 $
12.23
2.8%

92,244 $
12.55
2.6%

95,663 $
13.03
3.8%

98,533 $
13.41
2.9%

105,174
14.31
6.7%

$000
%

17,734 $
25%

18,538 $
25%

20,587 $
27%

15,800 $
19%

15,481
17%

(135,764) $
(20%)

411,131

411,131

882,475

58,211

940,686

68,404 $
20%

(67,361)
(7%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Rocky Mount


Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(15.8) or (22%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


2015-25 (10.5 Years) $(135.8) - (20%)
20%
$68.4 2026-35 (10 Years)
(7%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(67.4) -

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility


Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

$41.67 Million
$7.35 Million
2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Rocky Mount


Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Rocky Mount


Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$67.4 Million Lower Charges

7% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Scotland Neck


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

4,721
15,423
75%

4,726
30,923
75%

4,734
30,874
74%

4,742
30,903
74%

4,752
30,946
74%

4,757
31,031
74%

4,767
30,993
74%

4,776
31,029
74%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

2,543
54%

2,543
54%

2,543
54%

2,543
54%

2,543
54%

2,543
53%

2,543
53%

2,543
53%

3,102 $
10.03
3.3%

3,202 $
10.37
3.4%

3,310 $
10.71
3.3%

3,444 $
11.13
3.9%

3,790 $
12.21
9.7%

3,777 $
12.19
(0.2%)

3,765
12.13
(0.4%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

1,084
7.03

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.5140%
146 $
0.95

$000
/kWh
%

1,230
7.98

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

1,498
9.71

$19.29
3.27
0.21

2,241
7.25

2,323
7.52

2,406
7.79

2,470
7.98

2,501
8.06

2,598
8.38

2,725
8.78

57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.95

57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.95

57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.95

57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.95

57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.94

57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.95

57,000
0.5140%
293
0.94

2,534 $
8.20
2.7%

2,616 $
8.47
3.4%

2,699 $
8.73
3.1%

2,763 $
8.93
2.2%

2,794 $
9.00
0.8%

2,891 $
9.33
3.6%

3,018
9.73
4.3%

(268) $
(18%)

(568) $
(18%)

(586) $
(18%)

(611) $
(18%)

(681) $
(20%)

(995) $
(26%)

(886) $
(23%)

(747)
(20%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Scotland Neck


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

4,789
31,092
74%

4,804
31,240
74%

4,824
31,271
74%

4,842
31,367
74%

4,861
31,468
74%

4,881
31,649
74%

4,905
31,708
74%

4,930
31,847
74%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

2,543
53%

2,543
53%

2,543
53%

2,543
53%

2,543
52%

2,543
52%

2,543
52%

2,543
52%

2,984 $
9.48
2.3%

3,082 $
9.74
2.7%

3,169 $
9.99
2.6%

3,210
10.08
0.9%

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

2,807
9.03

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.94

57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.94

$000
/kWh
%

3,100 $
9.97
2.5%

3,310 $
10.59
6.3%

3,332 $
10.66
0.6%

3,372 $
10.75
0.9%

3,518 $
11.18
4.0%

3,596 $
11.36
1.6%

3,689 $
11.64
2.4%

3,957
12.43
6.8%

$000
%

(666) $
(18%)

23 $
1%

63 $
2%

463 $
16%

534 $
18%

513 $
17%

520 $
16%

747
23%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

3,766 $
12.11
(0.2%)

$23.75
4.47
0.17

3,287 $
10.52
(13.1%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

3,017
9.66

3,269 $
10.45
(0.6%)

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

3,186
10.19

2,909 $
9.27
(11.3%)

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

3,372
10.75

3,518
11.18

3,596
11.36

3,689
11.64

3,957
12.43

28,500
0.5140%
146
0.47

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Scotland Neck


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

4,951
31,961
74%

4,965
32,110
74%

4,977
32,087
74%

4,985
32,123
74%

4,994
32,159
74%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

2,543
51%

2,543
51%

2,543
51%

2,543
51%

2,543
51%

3,304 $
10.34
2.5%

3,401 $
10.59
2.5%

3,476 $
10.83
2.3%

3,802 $
11.83
9.2%

4,100
12.75
7.7%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

4,087
12.79

4,215
13.13

4,373
13.63

4,507
14.03

4,794
14.91

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
28,188 $
15,633 $
43,822

21,071

18,723

39,794

2,319

2,319

18,723

42,113

$000
/kWh
%

4,087 $
12.79
2.9%

4,215 $
13.13
2.7%

4,373 $
13.63
3.8%

4,507 $
14.03
3.0%

4,794
14.91
6.3%

23,390

$000
%

783 $
24%

814 $
24%

896 $
26%

705 $
19%

694
17%

(4,798) $
(17%)

3,090 $
20%

(1,709)
(4%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Scotland Neck


Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.5) or (18%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(4.8)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (17%)
20%
$3.1
2026-35 (10 Years)
(4%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(1.7)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.50 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.29 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Scotland Neck


Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Scotland Neck


Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$1.7 Million Lower Charges

4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Selma
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

10,585
34,629
75%

10,668
70,403
75%

10,747
71,065
75%

10,804
71,695
76%

10,858
72,283
76%

10,902
72,988
76%

10,962
73,424
76%

11,014
74,001
77%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

4,537
43%

4,537
43%

4,537
42%

4,537
42%

4,537
42%

4,537
42%

4,537
41%

4,537
41%

6,659 $
9.46
3.2%

6,951 $
9.78
3.4%

7,248 $
10.11
3.4%

7,529 $
10.42
3.0%

8,184 $
11.21
7.6%

8,220 $
11.20
(0.2%)

8,274
11.18
(0.1%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

2,432
7.02

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.9171%
261 $
0.75

$000
/kWh
%

2,693
7.78

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

3,173
9.16

$19.29
3.27
0.21

5,081
7.22

5,311
7.47

5,533
7.72

5,709
7.90

5,810
7.96

6,066
8.26

6,393
8.64

57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.74

57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.74

57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.73

57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.72

57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.72

57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.71

57,000
0.9171%
523
0.71

5,604 $
7.96
2.3%

5,834 $
8.21
3.1%

6,056 $
8.45
2.9%

6,231 $
8.62
2.1%

6,333 $
8.68
0.6%

6,589 $
8.97
3.4%

6,915
9.34
4.1%

(480) $
(15%)

(1,055) $
(16%)

(1,117) $
(16%)

(1,193) $
(16%)

(1,298) $
(17%)

(1,851) $
(23%)

(1,631) $
(20%)

(1,359)
(16%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Selma
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

11,073
74,652
77%

11,129
75,511
77%

11,204
76,120
78%

11,275
76,908
78%

11,348
77,727
78%

11,418
78,750
79%

11,504
79,489
79%

11,589
80,452
79%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

4,537
41%

4,537
41%

4,537
40%

4,537
40%

4,537
40%

4,537
40%

4,537
39%

4,537
39%

8,322 $
11.15
(0.3%)

7,618 $
10.09
(9.5%)

7,679 $
10.09
(0.0%)

7,191 $
9.35
(7.3%)

7,455 $
9.59
2.6%

7,723 $
9.81
2.3%

7,986 $
10.05
2.4%

8,307
10.33
2.8%

$23.75
4.47
0.17

$27.26
4.46
0.17

$28.90
4.66
0.17

$32.25
4.60
0.18

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

6,617
8.86

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.70

57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.69

$000
/kWh
%

7,140 $
9.56
2.4%

7,656 $
10.14
6.0%

7,830 $
10.29
1.4%

8,036 $
10.45
1.6%

8,424 $
10.84
3.7%

8,655 $
10.99
1.4%

8,930 $
11.23
2.2%

9,647
11.99
6.7%

$000
%

(1,182) $
(14%)

39 $
1%

151 $
2%

846 $
12%

969 $
13%

932 $
12%

944 $
12%

1,339
16%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

7,134
9.45

7,568
9.94

8,036
10.45

8,424
10.84

8,655
10.99

8,930
11.23

9,647
11.99

28,500
0.9171%
261
0.34

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Selma
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

11,673
81,392
80%

11,744
82,447
80%

11,823
83,085
80%

11,891
83,844
80%

11,960
84,610
81%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

4,537
39%

4,537
39%

4,537
38%

4,537
38%

4,537
38%

8,620 $
10.59
2.6%

8,949 $
10.85
2.5%

9,272 $
11.16
2.8%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

10,022
12.31

10,404
12.62

10,874
13.09

10,028 $
11.96
7.2%

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

11,286
13.46

10,879
12.86
7.5%

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
61,959 $
40,255 $
102,214

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

12,136
14.34

$000
%
$000
/kWh

48,910

45,819

94,729

4,137

4,137

45,819

98,866

$000
/kWh
%

10,022 $
12.31
2.7%

10,404 $
12.62
2.5%

10,874 $
13.09
3.7%

11,286 $
13.46
2.9%

12,136
14.34
6.6%

53,048

$000
%

1,402 $
16%

1,455 $
16%

1,602 $
17%

1,258 $
13%

1,257
12%

(8,912) $
(14%)

5,564 $
14%

(3,348)
(3%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Selma
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(1.0) or (15%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(8.9)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (14%)
14%
$5.6
2026-35 (10 Years)
(3%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(3.3)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$2.11 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.52 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Selma
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Selma
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$3.3 Million Lower Charges

3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Smithfield
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

24,240
87,759
83%

24,329
176,805
83%

24,416
177,068
83%

24,477
177,550
83%

24,537
178,031
83%

24,583
178,812
83%

24,644
178,841
83%

24,699
179,259
83%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

11,196
46%

11,196
46%

11,196
46%

11,196
46%

11,196
46%

11,196
46%

11,196
45%

11,196
45%

16,402 $
9.28
3.2%

16,978 $
9.59
3.4%

17,580 $
9.90
3.3%

18,202 $
10.22
3.3%

19,754 $
11.05
8.0%

19,749 $
11.04
(0.0%)

19,775
11.03
(0.1%)

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

5,864
6.68

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
2.2631%
645 $
0.73

57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.73

57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.73

57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.73

57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.72

57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.72

57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.72

57,000
2.2631%
1,290
0.72

$000
/kWh
%

6,509
7.42

13,458 $
7.61
2.6%

13,942 $
7.87
3.4%

14,423 $
8.12
3.2%

14,792 $
8.31
2.3%

14,983 $
8.38
0.8%

15,523 $
8.68
3.6%

16,220
9.05
4.2%

$000
%

(1,380) $
(17%)

(2,944) $
(18%)

(3,036) $
(18%)

(3,158) $
(18%)

(3,411) $
(19%)

(4,771) $
(24%)

(4,226) $
(21%)

(3,555)
(18%)

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

7,889
8.99

$19.29
3.27
0.21

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

12,168
6.88

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

12,652
7.15

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

13,133
7.40

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

13,502
7.58

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

13,693
7.66

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

14,233
7.96

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

14,930
8.33

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Smithfield
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

24,763
179,769
83%

24,826
180,730
83%

24,912
180,998
83%

24,992
181,665
83%

25,074
182,342
83%

25,150
183,441
83%

25,250
183,830
83%

25,347
184,662
83%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

11,196
45%

11,196
45%

11,196
45%

11,196
45%

11,196
45%

11,196
45%

11,196
44%

11,196
44%

19,808 $
11.02
(0.1%)

17,876 $
9.89
(10.2%)

17,881 $
9.88
(0.1%)

16,464 $
9.06
(8.3%)

16,947 $
9.29
2.5%

17,481 $
9.53
2.5%

17,979 $
9.78
2.6%

18,529
10.03
2.6%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$23.75
4.47
0.17
15,393
8.56

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

16,481
9.12

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

17,396
9.61

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

18,348
10.10

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

19,138
10.50

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

19,579
10.67

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

20,105
10.94

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

21,635
11.72

57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.72

57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.71

16,683 $
9.28
2.6%

17,771 $
9.83
6.0%

18,041 $
9.97
1.4%

18,348 $
10.10
1.3%

19,138 $
10.50
3.9%

19,579 $
10.67
1.7%

20,105 $
10.94
2.5%

21,635
11.72
7.1%

(3,124) $
(16%)

(105) $
(1%)

160 $
1%

1,884 $
11%

2,191 $
13%

2,098 $
12%

2,127 $
12%

3,106
17%

28,500
2.2631%
645
0.36

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Smithfield
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

25,438
185,433
83%

25,511
186,501
83%

25,589
186,679
83%

25,653
187,199
83%

25,718
187,721
83%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

11,196
44%

11,196
44%

11,196
44%

11,196
44%

11,196
44%

19,096 $
10.30
2.6%

19,700 $
10.56
2.6%

20,264 $
10.86
2.8%

21,907 $
11.70
7.8%

23,702
12.63
7.9%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

22,357
12.06

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

23,095
12.38

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

24,019
12.87

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

24,816
13.26

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
149,246 $
89,692 $
238,938

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

26,596
14.17

$000
%
$000
/kWh

115,064

10,210

$000
/kWh
%

22,357 $
12.06
2.9%

23,095 $
12.38
2.7%

24,019 $
12.87
3.9%

24,816 $
13.26
3.0%

26,596
14.17
6.9%

125,273

$000
%

3,261 $
17%

3,395 $
17%

3,755 $
19%

2,910 $
13%

2,894
12%

(23,973) $
(16%)

102,473

102,473

217,536

10,210

227,746

12,781 $
14%

(11,192)
(5%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Smithfield
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(2.8) or (17%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(24.0) - (16%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
14%
$12.8 2026-35 (10 Years)
(5%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(11.2) -

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$5.21 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $1.29 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Smithfield
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Smithfield
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$11.2 Million Lower Charges

5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Southport
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

9,056
28,198
71%

9,120
56,812
71%

9,178
57,189
71%

9,226
57,500
71%

9,269
57,778
71%

9,301
57,989
71%

9,332
58,190
71%

9,357
58,352
71%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

3,644
40%

3,644
40%

3,644
40%

3,644
39%

3,644
39%

3,644
39%

3,644
39%

3,644
39%

5,444 $
9.58
3.9%

5,686 $
9.94
3.8%

5,933 $
10.32
3.8%

6,151 $
10.65
3.2%

6,661 $
11.49
7.9%

6,684 $
11.49
0.0%

6,718
11.51
0.2%

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

$23.37
4.30
0.16

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

2,031
7.20

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
0.7366%
210 $
0.74

$000
/kWh
%

2,241
7.95

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

2,601
9.22

$19.29
3.27
0.21

4,223
7.43

4,404
7.70

4,577
7.96

4,712
8.16

4,779
8.24

4,978
8.55

5,229
8.96

57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.74

57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.73

57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.73

57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.73

57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.72

57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.72

57,000
0.7366%
420
0.72

4,643 $
8.17
2.8%

4,824 $
8.44
3.2%

4,997 $
8.69
3.0%

5,132 $
8.88
2.2%

5,199 $
8.97
0.9%

5,398 $
9.28
3.5%

5,649
9.68
4.4%

(360) $
(14%)

(801) $
(15%)

(862) $
(15%)

(935) $
(16%)

(1,019) $
(17%)

(1,462) $
(22%)

(1,286) $
(19%)

(1,069)
(16%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Southport
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

9,379
58,496
71%

9,396
58,608
71%

9,417
58,740
71%

9,432
58,836
71%

9,445
58,916
71%

9,453
58,966
71%

9,467
59,053
71%

9,477
59,117
71%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

3,644
39%

3,644
39%

3,644
39%

3,644
39%

3,644
39%

3,644
39%

3,644
38%

3,644
38%

6,734 $
11.51
(0.0%)

6,154 $
10.50
(8.8%)

6,182 $
10.52
0.2%

5,767 $
9.80
(6.9%)

5,933 $
10.07
2.7%

6,082 $
10.32
2.4%

6,234 $
10.56
2.3%

6,388
10.81
2.3%

$23.75
4.47
0.17

$27.26
4.46
0.17

$28.90
4.66
0.17

$32.25
4.60
0.18

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

$33.68
5.97
0.19

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

5,385
9.21

$000
%
$000
/kWh

57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.72

57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.72

$000
/kWh
%

5,805 $
9.92
2.5%

6,204 $
10.59
6.7%

6,318 $
10.76
1.6%

6,460 $
10.98
2.1%

6,725 $
11.41
4.0%

6,844 $
11.61
1.7%

7,004 $
11.86
2.2%

7,477
12.65
6.6%

$000
%

(929) $
(14%)

51 $
1%

135 $
2%

693 $
12%

792 $
13%

761 $
13%

770 $
12%

1,089
17%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

5,785
9.87

6,108
10.40

6,460
10.98

6,725
11.41

6,844
11.61

7,004
11.86

7,477
12.65

28,500
0.7366%
210
0.36

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Southport
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

9,485
59,165
71%

9,486
59,170
71%

9,490
59,198
71%

9,489
59,191
71%

9,488
59,185
71%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

3,644
38%

3,644
38%

3,644
38%

3,644
38%

3,644
38%

6,558 $
11.08
2.6%

6,726 $
11.37
2.6%

6,897 $
11.65
2.5%

7,409 $
12.52
7.4%

7,927
13.39
7.0%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

$33.78
8.39
0.22

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

7,697
13.01

7,908
13.36

8,197
13.85

8,434
14.25

8,944
15.11

$000
%
$000
/kWh

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
50,429 $
30,847 $
81,276

40,178

35,376

75,554

3,323

3,323

35,376

78,877

$000
/kWh
%

7,697 $
13.01
2.9%

7,908 $
13.36
2.7%

8,197 $
13.85
3.6%

8,434 $
14.25
2.9%

8,944
15.11
6.1%

43,501

$000
%

1,139 $
17%

1,182 $
18%

1,300 $
19%

1,024 $
14%

1,017
13%

(6,928) $
(14%)

4,530 $
15%

(2,399)
(3%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Southport
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(0.7) or (14%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(6.9)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
- (14%)
15%
$4.5
2026-35 (10 Years)
(3%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(2.4)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.86 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.42 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Southport
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Southport
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$2.4 Million Lower Charges

3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Tarboro
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

26,670
120,724
103%

26,649
241,730
104%

26,644
240,995
103%

26,651
240,945
103%

26,671
240,998
103%

26,683
241,547
103%

26,707
241,028
103%

26,735
241,135
103%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

18,157
68%

18,157
68%

18,157
68%

18,157
68%

18,157
68%

18,157
68%

18,157
68%

18,157
68%

22,318 $
9.23
2.3%

22,793 $
9.46
2.4%

23,331 $
9.68
2.4%

24,236 $
10.06
3.9%

26,679 $
11.04
9.8%

26,493 $
10.99
(0.5%)

26,266
10.89
(0.9%)

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

7,295
6.04

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
3.6701%
1,046 $
0.87

57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87

57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87

57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87

57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87

57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87

57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87

57,000
3.6701%
2,092
0.87

$000
/kWh
%

8,341
6.91

17,138 $
7.09
2.6%

17,690 $
7.34
3.5%

18,275 $
7.58
3.3%

18,713 $
7.76
2.4%

18,928 $
7.84
0.9%

19,555 $
8.11
3.5%

20,355
8.44
4.0%

$000
%

(2,554) $
(23%)

(5,180) $
(23%)

(5,103) $
(22%)

(5,056) $
(22%)

(5,524) $
(23%)

(7,751) $
(29%)

(6,938) $
(26%)

(5,911)
(23%)

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

10,895
9.02

$19.29
3.27
0.21

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

15,046
6.22

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

15,598
6.47

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

16,183
6.72

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

16,621
6.90

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

16,836
6.97

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

17,463
7.25

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

18,263
7.57

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Tarboro
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

26,782
241,408
103%

26,840
242,361
103%

26,912
242,281
103%

26,982
242,769
103%

27,056
243,287
103%

27,135
244,449
103%

27,227
244,550
103%

27,325
245,292
102%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

18,157
68%

18,157
68%

18,157
67%

18,157
67%

18,157
67%

18,157
67%

18,157
67%

18,157
66%

26,214 $
10.86
(0.3%)

22,445 $
9.26
(14.7%)

22,125 $
9.13
(1.4%)

19,200 $
7.91
(13.4%)

19,608 $
8.06
1.9%

20,327 $
8.32
3.2%

20,935 $
8.56
2.9%

21,321
8.69
1.5%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$23.75
4.47
0.17
18,827
7.80

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

19,991
8.25

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

21,055
8.69

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

22,037
9.08

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

22,955
9.44

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

23,527
9.62

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

24,185
9.89

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

26,175
10.67

57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87

57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.86

20,919 $
8.67
2.7%

22,083 $
9.11
5.2%

22,101 $
9.12
0.1%

22,037 $
9.08
(0.5%)

22,955 $
9.44
3.9%

23,527 $
9.62
2.0%

24,185 $
9.89
2.8%

26,175
10.67
7.9%

(5,296) $
(20%)

(362) $
(2%)

(24) $
(0%)

2,836 $
15%

3,348 $
17%

3,199 $
16%

3,250 $
16%

4,854
23%

28,500
3.6701%
1,046
0.43

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Tarboro
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

27,408
245,895
102%

27,466
246,882
103%

27,507
246,528
102%

27,539
246,691
102%

27,571
246,853
102%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

18,157
66%

18,157
66%

18,157
66%

18,157
66%

18,157
66%

21,928 $
8.92
2.6%

22,602 $
9.16
2.7%

23,148 $
9.39
2.6%

25,474 $
10.33
10.0%

27,944
11.32
9.6%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

27,043
11.00

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

27,944
11.32

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

29,068
11.79

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

30,032
12.17

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
198,052 $
103,892 $
301,943

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

32,441
13.14

$000
%
$000
/kWh

141,181

16,557

$000
/kWh
%

27,043 $
11.00
3.1%

27,944 $
11.32
2.9%

29,068 $
11.79
4.2%

30,032 $
12.17
3.2%

32,441
13.14
7.9%

157,739

$000
%

5,115 $
23%

5,342 $
24%

5,920 $
26%

4,558 $
18%

4,497
16%

(40,313) $
(20%)

123,720

123,720

264,901

16,557

281,459

19,828 $
19%

(20,485)
(7%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Tarboro
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(5.1) or (23%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


$(40.3) - (20%)
2015-25 (10.5 Years)
19%
$19.8 2026-35 (10 Years)
(7%)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(20.5) -

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility


Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

$12.33 Million
$2.09 Million
2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Tarboro
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Tarboro
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$20.5 Million Lower Charges

7% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Wake Forest


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

23,279
78,322
77%

24,282
159,923
75%

24,836
162,925
75%

25,337
165,945
75%

25,838
168,960
75%

26,283
172,004
75%

26,828
174,868
74%

27,325
177,848
74%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

5,589
24%

5,589
23%

5,589
23%

5,589
22%

5,589
22%

5,589
21%

5,589
21%

5,589
20%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

5,424
6.93

$000
%
$000
/kWh

28,500 $
1.1297%
322 $
0.41

57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.40

57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.40

57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.39

57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.38

57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.37

57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.37

57,000
1.1297%
644
0.36

$000
/kWh
%

5,746
7.34

12,198 $
7.63
4.0%

12,868 $
7.90
3.6%

13,532 $
8.15
3.2%

14,103 $
8.35
2.4%

14,487 $
8.42
0.9%

15,282 $
8.74
3.8%

16,247
9.14
4.5%

$000
%

(601) $
(9%)

(1,425) $
(10%)

(1,636) $
(11%)

(1,884) $
(12%)

(1,916) $
(12%)

(2,559) $
(15%)

(2,165) $
(12%)

(1,715)
(10%)

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

6,347
8.10

$19.29
3.27
0.21

13,623 $
8.52
5.1%

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

11,554
7.22

14,505 $
8.90
4.5%

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

12,224
7.50

15,416 $
9.29
4.3%

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

12,888
7.77

16,020 $
9.48
2.1%

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

13,459
7.97

17,046 $
9.91
4.5%

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

13,843
8.05

17,447 $
9.98
0.7%

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

14,638
8.37

17,962
10.10
1.2%

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

15,603
8.77

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Wake Forest


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

27,830
180,899
74%

28,288
184,110
74%

28,858
187,176
74%

29,376
190,352
74%

29,896
193,551
74%

30,362
196,885
74%

30,949
200,067
74%

31,484
203,402
74%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

5,589
20%

5,589
20%

5,589
19%

5,589
19%

5,589
19%

5,589
18%

5,589
18%

5,589
18%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

18,310 $
10.12
0.2%

$23.75
4.47
0.17
16,320
9.02

18,297 $
9.94
(1.8%)

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

17,770
9.65

18,947 $
10.12
1.9%

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

19,064
10.18

19,257 $
10.12
(0.1%)

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

20,460
10.75

20,295 $
10.49
3.6%

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

21,637
11.18

21,073 $
10.70
2.1%

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

22,368
11.36

21,971 $
10.98
2.6%

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

23,278
11.63

23,511
11.56
5.3%

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

25,272
12.42

57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.36

57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.35

16,964 $
9.38
2.7%

18,414 $
10.00
6.7%

19,386 $
10.36
3.6%

20,460 $
10.75
3.8%

21,637 $
11.18
4.0%

22,368 $
11.36
1.6%

23,278 $
11.63
2.4%

25,272
12.42
6.8%

(1,346) $
(7%)

117 $
1%

439 $
2%

1,202 $
6%

1,342 $
7%

1,296 $
6%

1,306 $
6%

1,761
7%

28,500
1.1297%
322
0.17

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Wake Forest


Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

32,014
206,692
74%

32,471
210,006
74%

33,047
213,029
74%

33,554
216,110
74%

34,069
219,235
73%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

5,589
17%

5,589
17%

5,589
17%

5,589
17%

5,589
16%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

24,598 $
11.90
3.0%

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

26,426
12.79

25,686 $
12.23
2.8%

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

27,568
13.13

26,965 $
12.66
3.5%

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

29,032
13.63

28,695 $
13.28
4.9%

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

30,327
14.03

30,987
14.13
6.4%

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
133,933 $
112,856 $
246,789

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

32,695
14.91

$000
%
$000
/kWh

116,785

5,097

$000
/kWh
%

26,426 $
12.79
2.9%

27,568 $
13.13
2.7%

29,032 $
13.63
3.8%

30,327 $
14.03
3.0%

32,695
14.91
6.3%

121,881

$000
%

1,828 $
7%

1,882 $
7%

2,068 $
8%

1,632 $
6%

1,709
6%

(12,052) $
(9%)

120,307

120,307

237,092

5,097

242,188

7,451 $
7%

(4,601)
(2%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Wake Forest


Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(1.2) or (9%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


2015-25 (10.5 Years) $(12.1)
- (9%)
7%
$7.5
2026-35 (10 Years)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
- (2%)
$(4.6)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$1.89 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $0.64 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Wake Forest


Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Wake Forest


Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$4.6 Million Lower Charges

2% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Washington
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

42,618
146,178
78%

42,892
294,672
78%

42,977
295,460
78%

43,161
296,911
79%

43,434
299,002
79%

43,737
301,296
79%

43,881
302,460
79%

44,116
304,270
79%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

20,220
47%

20,220
47%

20,220
47%

20,220
47%

20,220
47%

20,220
46%

20,220
46%

20,220
46%

28,373 $
9.63
3.3%

29,382 $
9.94
3.3%

30,483 $
10.27
3.2%

31,699 $
10.60
3.3%

34,593 $
11.48
8.3%

34,639 $
11.45
(0.3%)

34,761
11.42
(0.2%)

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

11,193
7.66

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

13,631
9.32

$19.29
3.27
0.21

10,028
6.86

$20.04
3.40
0.18
$

28,500 $
4.0871%
1,165 $
0.80

20,844
7.07

$20.51
3.61
0.14
$

21,661
7.33

$20.80
3.80
0.15
$

22,518
7.58

$21.09
3.94
0.15
$

23,239
7.77

$21.22
4.00
0.16
$

23,662
7.85

$22.02
4.16
0.16
$

24,653
8.15

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

25,956
8.53

57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.79

57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.79

57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.78

57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.78

57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.77

57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.77

57,000
4.0871%
2,330
0.77

23,174 $
7.86
2.7%

23,991 $
8.12
3.3%

24,848 $
8.37
3.1%

25,569 $
8.55
2.2%

25,991 $
8.63
0.9%

26,983 $
8.92
3.4%

28,286
9.30
4.2%

(2,438) $
(18%)

(5,200) $
(18%)

(5,392) $
(18%)

(5,635) $
(18%)

(6,130) $
(19%)

(8,602) $
(25%)

(7,656) $
(22%)

(6,475)
(19%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Washington
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

44,389
306,351
79%

44,759
309,122
79%

44,963
310,714
79%

45,240
312,817
79%

45,512
314,886
79%

45,885
317,674
79%

46,085
319,222
79%

46,396
321,563
79%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

20,220
46%

20,220
45%

20,220
45%

20,220
45%

20,220
44%

20,220
44%

20,220
44%

20,220
44%

34,915 $
11.40
(0.2%)

31,541 $
10.20
(10.5%)

31,617 $
10.18
(0.3%)

29,148 $
9.32
(8.4%)

30,086 $
9.55
2.5%

31,153 $
9.81
2.6%

32,071 $
10.05
2.4%

33,069
10.28
2.4%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$23.75
4.47
0.17
26,856
8.77

$27.26
4.46
0.17
$

28,941
9.36

$28.90
4.66
0.17
$

30,626
9.86

$32.25
4.60
0.18
$

32,448
10.37

$33.59
4.77
0.18
$

33,941
10.78

$33.50
4.98
0.19
$

34,844
10.97

$33.55
5.22
0.19
$

35,814
11.22

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

38,587
12.00

57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.76

57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.75

29,186 $
9.53
2.5%

31,270 $
10.12
6.2%

31,791 $
10.23
1.1%

32,448 $
10.37
1.4%

33,941 $
10.78
3.9%

34,844 $
10.97
1.8%

35,814 $
11.22
2.3%

38,587
12.00
7.0%

(5,729) $
(16%)

(271) $
(1%)

174 $
1%

3,300 $
11%

3,856 $
13%

3,691 $
12%

3,743 $
12%

5,518
17%

28,500
4.0871%
1,165
0.37

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Washington
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

46,665
323,596
79%

46,972
325,895
79%

47,032
326,410
79%

47,157
327,388
79%

47,282
328,368
79%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

20,220
43%

20,220
43%

20,220
43%

20,220
43%

20,220
43%

34,150 $
10.55
2.6%

35,312 $
10.84
2.7%

36,269 $
11.11
2.5%

39,209 $
11.98
7.8%

42,322
12.89
7.6%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

$34.30
6.21
0.20
$

39,950
12.35

$34.74
6.48
0.20
$

41,356
12.69

$35.15
6.87
0.21
$

42,964
13.16

$35.51
7.20
0.22
$

44,377
13.55

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
260,744 $
160,010 $
420,754

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

47,452
14.45

$000
%
$000
/kWh

199,114

18,439

$000
/kWh
%

39,950 $
12.35
2.9%

41,356 $
12.69
2.8%

42,964 $
13.16
3.7%

44,377 $
13.55
3.0%

47,452
14.45
6.6%

217,553

$000
%

5,799 $
17%

6,044 $
17%

6,695 $
18%

5,167 $
13%

5,130
12%

(43,191) $
(17%)

182,642

182,642

381,757

18,439

400,195

22,632 $
14%

(20,559)
(5%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Washington
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(4.9) or (18%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


2015-25 (10.5 Years)
$(43.2) - (17%)
14%
$22.6 2026-35 (10 Years)
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(20.6) (5%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility


Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

$15.32 Million
$2.33 Million
2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Washington
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Washington
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$20.6 Million Lower Charges

5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Wilson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2015
(6 months)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

kW
MWh
%

148,481
652,476
100%

148,368
1,316,356
101%

149,937
1,321,903
101%

150,364
1,331,435
101%

151,406
1,340,048
101%

152,260
1,351,140
101%

153,921
1,353,781
100%

154,012
1,358,585
101%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71

$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71

$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71

$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71

$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71

$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71

$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71

$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71

kW
%

87,757
59%

87,757
59%

87,757
59%

87,757
58%

87,757
58%

87,757
58%

87,757
57%

87,757
57%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

$000
%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

57,558
8.82

$19.29
3.27
0.21
39,928
6.12

118,711 $
9.02
2.2%

122,330 $
9.25
2.6%

126,103 $
9.47
2.3%

131,180 $
9.79
3.4%

143,615 $
10.63
8.6%

143,579 $
10.61
(0.2%)

$20.04
3.40
0.18

$20.51
3.61
0.14

$20.80
3.80
0.15

$21.09
3.94
0.15

$21.22
4.00
0.16

$22.02
4.16
0.16

82,714
6.28

86,491
6.54

90,197
6.77

93,204
6.96

94,938
7.03

99,119
7.32

143,096
10.53
(0.7%)

$23.37
4.30
0.16
$

103,846
7.64

28,500 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
$
5,055 $
10,111 $
10,111 $
10,111 $
10,111 $
10,111 $
10,111 $
10,111
0.77
0.77
0.76
0.76
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.74
44,983
6.89

92,825 $
7.05
2.3%

96,602 $
7.31
3.6%

100,308 $
7.53
3.1%

103,315 $
7.71
2.3%

105,049 $
7.77
0.8%

109,230 $
8.07
3.8%

113,957
8.39
4.0%

(12,575) $
(22%)

(25,886) $
(22%)

(25,728) $
(21%)

(25,795) $
(20%)

(27,865) $
(21%)

(38,566) $
(27%)

(34,349) $
(24%)

(29,138)
(20%)

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Wilson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

kW
MWh
%

154,532
1,364,339
101%

154,679
1,369,896
101%

155,312
1,369,768
101%

154,745
1,371,306
101%

154,429
1,373,566
102%

154,245
1,384,331
102%

155,899
1,388,745
102%

155,646
1,396,847
102%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71

$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71

$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71

$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72

$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90

$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11

$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36

$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16

kW
%

87,757
57%

87,757
57%

87,757
57%

87,757
57%

87,757
57%

87,757
57%

87,757
56%

87,757
56%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

$000
%
$000
/kWh

$000
/kWh
%

117,415 $
8.61
2.6%

124,079 $
9.06
5.2%

125,188 $
9.14
0.9%

125,379 $
9.14
0.0%

130,279 $
9.48
3.7%

133,465 $
9.64
1.6%

137,857 $
9.93
3.0%

149,074
10.67
7.5%

$000
%

(25,837) $
(18%)

(2,074) $
(2%)

(46) $
(0%)

13,580 $
12%

16,019 $
14%

15,291 $
13%

15,533 $
13%

23,203
18%

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

143,252 $
10.50
(0.3%)

126,152 $
9.21
(12.3%)

125,234 $
9.14
(0.7%)

111,799 $
8.15
(10.8%)

114,260 $
8.32
2.0%

118,174 $
8.54
2.6%

122,324 $
8.81
3.2%

$23.75
4.47
0.17

$27.26
4.46
0.17

$28.90
4.66
0.17

$32.25
4.60
0.18

$33.59
4.77
0.18

$33.50
4.98
0.19

$33.55
5.22
0.19

107,304
7.86

113,968
8.32

120,133
8.77

125,379
9.14

130,279
9.48

133,465
9.64

137,857
9.93

125,872
9.01
2.3%

$33.68
5.97
0.19
$

149,074
10.67

57,000 $
57,000 $
28,500
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
$
10,111 $
10,111 $
5,055
0.74
0.74
0.37

5%

April 2015

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
Line

1
2
3

Load Forecast (Net of SEPA)


Average Monthly CP Billing Demand
Billing Energy
Average Monthly Load Factor

4
5
6
7

AR Rate Structure (Status Quo)


1st Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
2nd Demand Block Rate (Allocated Demand)
Additional Demand Block Rate
Energy Rate

Participant: Wilson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets

Units

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

kW
MWh
%

154,481
1,403,641
104%

153,116
1,412,215
105%

152,018
1,412,287
106%

150,722
1,415,316
107%

149,436
1,418,351
108%

$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh

$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41

$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69

$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10

$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44

$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56

kW
%

87,757
57%

87,757
57%

87,757
58%

87,757
58%

87,757
59%

8
9

Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP

10
11
12

AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

$000
/kWh
%

13
14
15

FR Rate Structure (After Sale)


Demand Rate
Energy Rate
Power Agency Services Charge (per unit Energy)

$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh

16
17

FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)

$000
/kWh

18
19
20
21

Allocation of Defeasance Debt Service


Total NCEMPA Debt Service
Debt Service Responsibility
Allocated Debt Service
Debt Service Charge (per unit Energy)

22
23
24

Total FR Charges (Including Debt Service)


Average FR Charges (Including Debt Service)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year

25
26

Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges

27 Present Value Discount Rate

GDS Associates, Inc.

129,128 $
9.20
2.1%

132,690 $
9.40
2.1%

135,908 $
9.62
2.4%

147,546 $
10.42
8.3%

$34.30
6.21
0.20

$34.74
6.48
0.20

$35.15
6.87
0.21

$35.51
7.20
0.22

153,559
10.94

158,182
11.20

164,178
11.62

169,201
11.96

161,247
11.37
9.1%

Cumulative Present Value


2015-2025
2026-2035
2015-2035
1,074,950 $
606,670 $ 1,681,620

$33.78
8.39
0.22
$

182,754
12.88

$000
%
$000
/kWh

793,743

80,026

873,769

$000
/kWh
%

153,559 $
10.94
2.5%

158,182 $
11.20
2.4%

164,178 $
11.62
3.8%

169,201 $
11.96
2.8%

182,754
12.88
7.8%

$000
%

24,431 $
19%

25,492 $
19%

28,270 $
21%

21,655 $
15%

21,507
13%

(201,181) $
(19%)

701,382

701,382

1,495,125

80,026

1,575,151

94,712 $
16%

(106,469)
(6%)

5%

April 2015

Participant: Wilson
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11

10
9

8
7

Higher (Lower) Initial Rate Reduction - $Millions


(Annualized 2015):
$(25.1) or (22%)

6
5

4
3

2
1
0
2015

CPV Higher (Lower) than Base Case - $Millions


2015-25 (10.5 Years)
$(201.2) - (19%)
2026-35 (10 Years)
$94.7 - 16%
2015-35 (20.5 Years)
$(106.5) - (6%)

Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

Current Annual Debt Responsibility

$40.33 Million

Defeasance Annual Debt Responsibility $10.11 Million

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Wilson
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)

16
15

Privileged and Confidential


Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

14
13

12

Cents/kWh

11
10
9

8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)

5
4

Average FR Charges (Including Defeasance Debt Service)

3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*

* Average CP demands increased by the estimated load met by Qualified Generation


(at approximately 60% of noticed nameplate ratings of the QG).

1
0
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

Participant: Wilson
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges

30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015

20%

% Higher/Lower

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)

-30%

$106.5 Million Lower Charges

6% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015

2017

GDS Associates, Inc.

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035
April 2015

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