Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
1,060,637
3,694,657
80%
1,066,307
7,452,464
80%
1,073,161
7,479,539
80%
1,078,114
7,520,101
80%
1,083,900
7,562,879
80%
1,088,538
7,614,147
80%
1,095,233
7,636,324
80%
1,100,099
7,674,661
80%
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
494,727
47%
494,727
46%
494,727
46%
494,727
46%
494,727
46%
494,727
45%
494,727
45%
494,727
45%
708,555 $
9.51
3.2%
735,076 $
9.83
3.4%
762,980 $
10.15
3.2%
792,208 $
10.47
3.2%
862,168 $
11.32
8.1%
863,970 $
11.31
(0.1%)
866,798
11.29
(0.2%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
280,037
7.58
579,718 $
7.78
2.6%
601,704 $
8.04
3.4%
623,569 $
8.29
3.1%
641,082 $
8.48
2.2%
650,695 $
8.55
0.8%
676,087 $
8.85
3.6%
708,148
9.23
4.2%
$000
%
(60,317) $
(18%)
(128,836) $
(18%)
(133,372) $
(18%)
(139,411) $
(18%)
(151,126) $
(19%)
(211,473) $
(25%)
(187,883) $
(22%)
(158,650)
(18%)
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
340,354
9.21
$19.29
3.27
0.21
251,537
6.81
522,718
7.01
544,704
7.28
566,569
7.53
584,082
7.72
593,695
7.80
619,087
8.11
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
651,148
8.48
28,500 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
$
28,500 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000
0.77
0.76
0.76
0.76
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.74
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
1,105,800
7,717,852
80%
1,111,777
7,782,790
80%
1,119,156
7,819,246
80%
1,125,040
7,871,520
80%
1,131,087
7,923,288
80%
1,136,096
7,989,377
80%
1,144,161
8,026,628
80%
1,149,586
8,082,031
80%
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
494,727
45%
494,727
44%
494,727
44%
494,727
44%
494,727
44%
494,727
44%
494,727
43%
494,727
43%
870,046 $
11.27
(0.2%)
787,281 $
10.12
(10.3%)
790,151 $
10.11
(0.1%)
730,278 $
9.28
(8.2%)
753,725 $
9.51
2.5%
778,549 $
9.74
2.4%
802,801 $
10.00
2.6%
827,994
10.24
2.4%
$23.75
4.47
0.17
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
730,030 $
9.46
2.5%
780,692 $
10.03
6.0%
794,928 $
10.17
1.3%
811,336 $
10.31
1.4%
848,360 $
10.71
3.9%
869,108 $
10.88
1.6%
894,645 $
11.15
2.5%
963,172
11.92
6.9%
$000
%
(140,016) $
(16%)
(6,589) $
(1%)
4,777 $
1%
81,058 $
11%
94,635 $
13%
90,559 $
12%
91,843 $
11%
135,178
16%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
673,030
8.72
723,692
9.30
766,428
9.80
811,336
10.31
848,360
10.71
869,108
10.88
894,645
11.15
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
963,172
11.92
57,000 $
57,000 $
28,500
100.0000%
100.0000%
100.0000%
$
57,000 $
57,000 $
28,500
0.74
0.73
0.36
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
1,154,060
8,131,616
80%
1,157,161
8,189,475
81%
1,160,955
8,207,365
81%
1,163,644
8,237,658
81%
1,166,391
8,268,237
81%
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
494,727
43%
494,727
43%
494,727
43%
494,727
43%
494,727
42%
854,226 $
10.50
2.5%
881,604 $
10.77
2.5%
907,297 $
11.05
2.7%
980,349 $ 1,059,300
11.90
12.81
7.7%
7.7%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
996,248
12.25
$ 1,029,555
12.57
$ 1,071,174
13.05
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$ 1,106,841
13.44
4,995,834
451,142
5,446,976
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$ 1,185,047
14.33
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
142,022 $
17%
$ (1,063,479) $
(16%)
147,950 $
17%
163,877 $
18%
126,492 $
13%
125,747
12%
4,558,161
4,558,161
9,553,995
451,142
$ 10,005,138
554,682 $
14%
(508,797)
(5%)
5%
April 2015
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$260.00 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Apex
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
52,606
147,439
64%
54,042
303,688
64%
55,657
312,028
64%
57,112
320,150
64%
58,575
328,309
64%
59,887
336,433
64%
61,483
344,513
64%
62,943
352,657
64%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
5,550
11%
5,550
10%
5,550
10%
5,550
10%
5,550
9%
5,550
9%
5,550
9%
5,550
9%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
11,726
7.95
$19.29
3.27
0.21
11,228
7.62
25,576 $
8.42
5.9%
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
28,500 $
1.1218%
320 $
0.22
23,848
7.85
27,796 $
8.91
5.8%
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
25,403
8.14
30,072 $
9.39
5.4%
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
26,920
8.41
31,268 $
9.52
1.4%
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
28,272
8.61
32,797 $
9.75
2.4%
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
29,234
8.69
34,045 $
9.88
1.4%
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
31,120
9.03
35,650
10.11
2.3%
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
33,396
9.47
57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.21
57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.20
57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.20
57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.19
57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.19
57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.19
57,000
1.1218%
639
0.18
24,487 $
8.06
3.0%
26,043 $
8.35
3.5%
27,559 $
8.61
3.1%
28,911 $
8.81
2.3%
29,874 $
8.88
0.8%
31,759 $
9.22
3.8%
34,035
9.65
4.7%
(179) $
(2%)
(1,089) $
(4%)
(1,753) $
(6%)
(2,513) $
(8%)
(2,357) $
(8%)
(2,923) $
(9%)
(2,286) $
(7%)
(1,615)
(5%)
11,547
7.83
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Apex
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
64,423
360,916
64%
65,759
369,285
64%
67,424
377,686
64%
68,938
386,161
64%
70,457
394,658
64%
71,808
403,218
64%
73,521
411,815
64%
75,077
420,537
64%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
5,550
9%
5,550
8%
5,550
8%
5,550
8%
5,550
8%
5,550
8%
5,550
8%
5,550
7%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
36,679 $
10.16
0.5%
$23.75
4.47
0.17
35,097
9.72
38,822 $
10.51
3.4%
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
38,593
10.45
40,877 $
10.82
3.0%
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
41,656
11.03
43,473 $
11.26
4.0%
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
45,123
11.68
46,192 $
11.70
4.0%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
47,948
12.15
47,971 $
11.90
1.6%
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
49,679
12.32
50,154 $
12.18
2.4%
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
51,866
12.59
54,185
12.88
5.8%
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
56,284
13.38
57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.18
57,000 $
1.1218%
639 $
0.17
35,736 $
9.90
2.6%
39,232 $
10.62
7.3%
41,975 $
11.11
4.6%
45,123 $
11.68
5.1%
47,948 $
12.15
4.0%
49,679 $
12.32
1.4%
51,866 $
12.59
2.2%
56,284
13.38
6.3%
(942) $
(3%)
410 $
1%
1,099 $
3%
1,649 $
4%
1,756 $
4%
1,709 $
4%
1,712 $
3%
2,099
4%
28,500
1.1218%
320
0.08
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Apex
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
76,631
429,246
64%
77,981
437,899
64%
79,699
446,417
64%
81,216
454,896
64%
82,762
463,536
64%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
5,550
7%
5,550
7%
5,550
7%
5,550
7%
5,550
7%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
56,914 $
13.26
2.9%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
59,055
13.76
59,600 $
13.61
2.7%
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
61,767
14.11
62,876 $
14.08
3.5%
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
65,246
14.62
66,438 $
14.61
3.7%
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
68,347
15.02
71,331
15.39
5.4%
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
73,478
15.85
$000
%
$000
/kWh
247,561
5,061
$000
/kWh
%
59,055 $
13.76
2.8%
61,767 $
14.11
2.5%
65,246 $
14.62
3.6%
68,347 $
15.02
2.8%
73,478
15.85
5.5%
252,622
$000
%
2,142 $
4%
2,167 $
4%
2,370 $
4%
1,909 $
3%
2,147
3%
(11,759) $
(4%)
268,551
268,551
516,112
5,061
521,173
9,198 $
4%
(2,561)
(0.5%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Apex
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.83 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Apex
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Apex
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Ayden
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
18,108
55,806
70%
18,128
111,885
70%
18,182
111,778
70%
18,222
111,887
70%
18,270
112,040
70%
18,295
112,331
70%
18,355
112,255
70%
18,401
112,392
70%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
7,098
39%
7,098
39%
7,098
39%
7,098
39%
7,098
39%
7,098
39%
7,098
39%
7,098
39%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
4,041
7.24
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
1.4347%
409 $
0.73
$000
/kWh
%
4,450
7.97
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
5,187
9.29
$19.29
3.27
0.21
10,817 $
9.67
4.0%
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
8,357
7.47
11,248 $
10.06
4.1%
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
8,668
7.75
11,700 $
10.46
3.9%
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
8,974
8.02
12,100 $
10.80
3.3%
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
9,213
8.22
13,078 $
11.64
7.8%
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
9,328
8.30
13,104 $
11.67
0.3%
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
9,697
8.64
13,163
11.71
0.3%
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
10,178
9.06
57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73
57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73
57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73
57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73
57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73
57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73
57,000
1.4347%
818
0.73
9,175 $
8.20
2.8%
9,486 $
8.49
3.5%
9,792 $
8.75
3.1%
10,031 $
8.95
2.3%
10,146 $
9.03
0.9%
10,514 $
9.37
3.7%
10,996
9.78
4.5%
(737) $
(14%)
(1,642) $
(15%)
(1,762) $
(16%)
(1,908) $
(16%)
(2,070) $
(17%)
(2,933) $
(22%)
(2,589) $
(20%)
(2,167)
(16%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Ayden
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
18,460
112,611
70%
18,512
113,090
70%
18,601
113,222
69%
18,674
113,543
69%
18,747
113,875
69%
18,813
114,456
69%
18,915
114,679
69%
19,008
115,147
69%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
7,098
38%
7,098
38%
7,098
38%
7,098
38%
7,098
38%
7,098
38%
7,098
38%
7,098
37%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
13,197 $
11.72
0.1%
$23.75
4.47
0.17
10,483
9.31
12,093 $
10.69
(8.8%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
11,287
9.98
12,164 $
10.74
0.5%
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
11,929
10.54
11,389 $
10.03
(6.6%)
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
12,650
11.14
11,744 $
10.31
2.8%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
13,197
11.59
12,077 $
10.55
2.3%
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
13,471
11.77
12,404 $
10.82
2.5%
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
13,816
12.05
12,750
11.07
2.4%
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
14,785
12.84
57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.73
57,000 $
1.4347%
818 $
0.72
11,301 $
10.04
2.6%
12,104 $
10.70
6.7%
12,338 $
10.90
1.8%
12,650 $
11.14
2.2%
13,197 $
11.59
4.0%
13,471 $
11.77
1.6%
13,816 $
12.05
2.4%
14,785
12.84
6.6%
(1,897) $
(14%)
11 $
0%
174 $
1%
1,261 $
11%
1,453 $
12%
1,394 $
12%
1,412 $
11%
2,035
16%
28,500
1.4347%
409
0.36
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Ayden
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
19,089
115,539
69%
19,139
116,037
69%
19,204
116,020
69%
19,247
116,167
69%
19,290
116,315
69%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
7,098
37%
7,098
37%
7,098
37%
7,098
37%
7,098
37%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
13,131 $
11.37
2.6%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
15,263
13.21
13,516 $
11.65
2.5%
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
15,732
13.56
13,874 $
11.96
2.7%
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
16,320
14.07
14,909 $
12.83
7.3%
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
16,818
14.48
15,944
13.71
6.8%
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
17,839
15.34
$000
%
$000
/kWh
78,666
69,994
148,660
6,473
6,473
85,139
69,994
155,133
$000
/kWh
%
15,263 $
13.21
2.9%
15,732 $
13.56
2.6%
16,320 $
14.07
3.8%
16,818 $
14.48
2.9%
17,839
15.34
5.9%
$000
%
2,132 $
16%
2,216 $
16%
2,447 $
18%
1,909 $
13%
1,895
12%
(14,191) $
(14%)
8,408 $
14%
(5,783)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Ayden
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$2.95 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Ayden
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Ayden
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Belhaven
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
3,099
10,493
77%
3,106
21,089
78%
3,114
21,087
77%
3,123
21,145
77%
3,132
21,210
77%
3,139
21,313
78%
3,148
21,313
77%
3,156
21,370
77%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
1,718
55%
1,718
55%
1,718
55%
1,718
55%
1,718
55%
1,718
55%
1,718
55%
1,718
54%
2,090 $
9.91
3.1%
2,157 $
10.23
3.2%
2,230 $
10.55
3.1%
2,323 $
10.95
3.8%
2,559 $
12.01
9.6%
2,551 $
11.97
(0.3%)
2,544
11.91
(0.5%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
724
6.90
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.3473%
99 $
0.94
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
1,009
9.62
$19.29
3.27
0.21
1,500
7.11
1,557
7.39
1,616
7.64
1,661
7.83
1,685
7.91
1,752
8.22
1,839
8.61
57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.94
57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.94
57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.94
57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.93
57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.93
57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.93
57,000
0.3473%
198
0.93
1,698 $
8.05
2.6%
1,755 $
8.32
3.4%
1,814 $
8.58
3.0%
1,859 $
8.77
2.2%
1,883 $
8.84
0.8%
1,950 $
9.15
3.5%
2,037
9.53
4.2%
(186) $
(18%)
(392) $
(19%)
(402) $
(19%)
(416) $
(19%)
(463) $
(20%)
(675) $
(26%)
(601) $
(24%)
(507)
(20%)
823
7.85
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Belhaven
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
3,167
21,443
77%
3,179
21,583
78%
3,193
21,622
77%
3,206
21,714
77%
3,220
21,810
77%
3,234
21,969
78%
3,250
22,024
77%
3,267
22,141
77%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
1,718
54%
1,718
54%
1,718
54%
1,718
54%
1,718
53%
1,718
53%
1,718
53%
1,718
53%
2,017 $
9.25
2.2%
2,087 $
9.50
2.7%
2,148 $
9.75
2.6%
2,182
9.86
1.1%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
1,897
8.85
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.92
57,000 $
0.3473%
198 $
0.92
$000
/kWh
%
2,095 $
9.77
2.5%
2,236 $
10.36
6.1%
2,252 $
10.42
0.5%
2,278 $
10.49
0.7%
2,378 $
10.90
3.9%
2,434 $
11.08
1.6%
2,499 $
11.35
2.4%
2,686
12.13
6.9%
$000
%
(451) $
(18%)
14 $
1%
43 $
2%
313 $
16%
361 $
18%
347 $
17%
351 $
16%
504
23%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
2,546 $
11.87
(0.3%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
2,222 $
10.30
(13.3%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
2,038
9.44
2,210 $
10.22
(0.7%)
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
2,153
9.96
1,965 $
9.05
(11.4%)
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
2,278
10.49
2,378
10.90
2,434
11.08
2,499
11.35
2,686
12.13
28,500
0.3473%
99
0.46
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Belhaven
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
3,282
22,242
77%
3,292
22,377
78%
3,301
22,374
77%
3,308
22,422
77%
3,315
22,470
77%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
1,718
52%
1,718
52%
1,718
52%
1,718
52%
1,718
52%
2,248 $
10.11
2.5%
2,318 $
10.36
2.5%
2,372 $
10.60
2.4%
2,597 $
11.58
9.2%
2,810
12.51
8.0%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
2,776
12.48
2,868
12.81
2,977
13.31
3,073
13.70
3,279
14.59
$000
%
$000
/kWh
14,183
12,714
26,897
1,567
1,567
12,714
28,464
$000
/kWh
%
2,776 $
12.48
2.9%
2,868 $
12.81
2.7%
2,977 $
13.31
3.8%
3,073 $
13.70
3.0%
3,279
14.59
6.5%
15,750
$000
%
528 $
24%
550 $
24%
605 $
26%
476 $
18%
469
17%
(3,272) $
(17%)
2,086 $
20%
(1,186)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Belhaven
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.06 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Belhaven
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Belhaven
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Benson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
5,917
18,287
71%
5,924
36,678
71%
5,930
36,606
70%
5,935
36,619
70%
5,940
36,639
70%
5,944
36,709
70%
5,950
36,627
70%
5,957
36,641
70%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,801 $
10.36
3.3%
3,924 $
10.72
3.4%
4,057 $
11.08
3.3%
4,223 $
11.53
4.0%
4,657 $
12.69
10.1%
4,637 $
12.66
(0.2%)
4,618
12.60
(0.5%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
1,322
7.23
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.6507%
185 $
1.01
$000
/kWh
%
1,508
8.24
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
1,834
10.03
$19.29
3.27
0.21
2,735
7.46
2,833
7.74
2,930
8.00
3,004
8.20
3,040
8.28
3,154
8.61
3,306
9.02
57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01
57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01
57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01
57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01
57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01
57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01
57,000
0.6507%
371
1.01
3,106 $
8.47
2.7%
3,203 $
8.75
3.3%
3,301 $
9.01
3.0%
3,375 $
9.21
2.2%
3,411 $
9.29
0.9%
3,525 $
9.62
3.6%
3,677
10.04
4.3%
(326) $
(18%)
(695) $
(18%)
(721) $
(18%)
(756) $
(19%)
(848) $
(20%)
(1,247) $
(27%)
(1,113) $
(24%)
(941)
(20%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Benson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
5,966
36,689
70%
5,977
36,843
70%
5,990
36,857
70%
6,003
36,953
70%
6,016
37,055
70%
6,030
37,259
71%
6,047
37,315
70%
6,064
37,472
71%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,219
54%
3,219
53%
3,219
53%
3,219
53%
3,587 $
9.68
2.1%
3,700 $
9.93
2.6%
3,796 $
10.17
2.4%
3,818
10.19
0.2%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
3,402
9.27
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01
57,000 $
0.6507%
371 $
1.01
$000
/kWh
%
3,772 $
10.28
2.5%
4,030 $
10.94
6.4%
4,046 $
10.98
0.4%
4,088 $
11.06
0.8%
4,260 $
11.50
3.9%
4,347 $
11.67
1.5%
4,452 $
11.93
2.3%
4,762
12.71
6.5%
$000
%
(842) $
(18%)
30 $
1%
75 $
2%
584 $
17%
673 $
19%
647 $
17%
656 $
17%
944
25%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
4,615 $
12.58
(0.2%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
4,000 $
10.86
(13.7%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
3,659
9.93
3,971 $
10.77
(0.8%)
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
3,861
10.47
3,504 $
9.48
(12.0%)
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
4,088
11.06
4,260
11.50
4,347
11.67
4,452
11.93
4,762
12.71
28,500
0.6507%
185
0.50
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Benson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
6,078
37,595
71%
6,087
37,757
71%
6,092
37,707
71%
6,099
37,727
71%
6,107
37,746
71%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
3,219
53%
3,219
53%
3,219
53%
3,219
53%
3,219
53%
3,922 $
10.43
2.4%
4,030 $
10.67
2.3%
4,107 $
10.89
2.0%
4,505 $
11.94
9.6%
4,851
12.85
7.6%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
4,911
13.06
5,060
13.40
5,241
13.90
5,397
14.31
5,727
15.17
$000
%
$000
/kWh
25,615
22,537
48,152
2,936
2,936
22,537
51,087
$000
/kWh
%
4,911 $
13.06
2.8%
5,060 $
13.40
2.6%
5,241 $
13.90
3.7%
5,397 $
14.31
2.9%
5,727
15.17
6.1%
28,550
$000
%
989 $
25%
1,030 $
26%
1,134 $
28%
892 $
20%
876
18%
(5,972) $
(17%)
3,902 $
21%
(2,071)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Benson
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.50 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Benson
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Benson
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Clayton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
18,094
51,506
65%
18,327
105,028
65%
18,556
106,653
66%
18,761
108,276
66%
18,968
109,907
66%
19,151
111,587
67%
19,367
113,060
67%
19,574
114,654
67%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
5,214
29%
5,214
28%
5,214
28%
5,214
28%
5,214
27%
5,214
27%
5,214
27%
5,214
27%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
3,889
7.55
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
1.0539%
300 $
0.58
$000
/kWh
%
4,190
8.13
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
4,638
9.00
$19.29
3.27
0.21
9,865 $
9.39
4.3%
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
8,160
7.77
10,447 $
9.80
4.3%
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
8,568
8.03
11,045 $
10.20
4.1%
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
8,966
8.28
11,472 $
10.44
2.3%
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
9,302
8.46
12,309 $
11.03
5.7%
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
9,515
8.53
12,500 $
11.06
0.2%
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
9,998
8.84
12,760
11.13
0.7%
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
10,608
9.25
57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.57
57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.56
57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.55
57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.55
57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.54
57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.53
57,000
1.0539%
601
0.52
8,761 $
8.34
2.5%
9,169 $
8.60
3.1%
9,567 $
8.84
2.8%
9,903 $
9.01
2.0%
10,116 $
9.07
0.6%
10,599 $
9.37
3.4%
11,209
9.78
4.3%
(448) $
(10%)
(1,104) $
(11%)
(1,278) $
(12%)
(1,478) $
(13%)
(1,569) $
(14%)
(2,193) $
(18%)
(1,901) $
(15%)
(1,552)
(12%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Clayton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
19,789
116,316
67%
19,998
118,143
67%
20,241
119,803
68%
20,474
121,590
68%
20,709
123,387
68%
20,933
125,323
68%
21,194
127,083
68%
21,445
128,997
69%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
5,214
26%
5,214
26%
5,214
26%
5,214
25%
5,214
25%
5,214
25%
5,214
25%
5,214
24%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
12,932 $
11.12
(0.1%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
11,034
9.49
12,521 $
10.60
(4.7%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
12,007
10.16
12,840 $
10.72
1.1%
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
12,816
10.70
12,693 $
10.44
(2.6%)
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
13,730
11.29
13,285 $
10.77
3.1%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
14,459
11.72
13,754 $
10.97
1.9%
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
14,884
11.88
14,262 $
11.22
2.3%
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
15,404
12.12
15,038
11.66
3.9%
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
16,624
12.89
57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.52
57,000 $
1.0539%
601 $
0.51
11,634 $
10.00
2.3%
12,607 $
10.67
6.7%
13,116 $
10.95
2.6%
13,730 $
11.29
3.1%
14,459 $
11.72
3.8%
14,884 $
11.88
1.4%
15,404 $
12.12
2.1%
16,624
12.89
6.3%
(1,297) $
(10%)
86 $
1%
276 $
2%
1,038 $
8%
1,174 $
9%
1,130 $
8%
1,142 $
8%
1,586
11%
28,500
1.0539%
300
0.25
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Clayton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
21,693
130,876
69%
21,917
132,806
69%
22,169
134,428
69%
22,399
136,131
69%
22,633
137,856
70%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
5,214
24%
5,214
24%
5,214
24%
5,214
23%
5,214
23%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
15,664 $
11.97
2.7%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
17,318
13.23
16,300 $
12.27
2.5%
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
18,010
13.56
16,993 $
12.64
3.0%
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
18,875
14.04
18,160 $
13.34
5.5%
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
19,642
14.43
19,543
14.18
6.3%
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
21,050
15.27
$000
%
$000
/kWh
80,361
79,089
159,450
4,755
4,755
85,116
79,089
164,205
$000
/kWh
%
17,318 $
13.23
2.7%
18,010 $
13.56
2.5%
18,875 $
14.04
3.5%
19,642 $
14.43
2.8%
21,050
15.27
5.8%
$000
%
1,653 $
11%
1,710 $
10%
1,882 $
11%
1,481 $
8%
1,507
8%
(10,120) $
(11%)
6,639 $
9%
(3,481)
(2%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Clayton
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.94 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Clayton
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Clayton
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
2% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Edenton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
16,693
51,543
70%
16,697
103,734
71%
16,734
103,811
71%
16,747
104,054
71%
16,765
104,394
71%
16,757
104,863
71%
16,790
104,897
71%
16,801
105,118
71%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
3,729
7.23
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
1.5570%
444 $
0.86
$000
/kWh
%
4,172
8.09
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
4,994
9.69
$19.29
3.27
0.21
10,397 $
10.02
3.4%
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
7,722
7.44
10,782 $
10.39
3.6%
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
8,013
7.72
11,184 $
10.75
3.5%
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
8,296
7.97
11,606 $
11.12
3.4%
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
8,519
8.16
12,661 $
12.07
8.6%
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
8,626
8.23
12,654 $
12.06
(0.1%)
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
8,965
8.55
12,659
12.04
(0.2%)
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
9,405
8.95
57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.86
57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.85
57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.85
57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.85
57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.85
57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.85
57,000
1.5570%
887
0.84
8,610 $
8.30
2.5%
8,900 $
8.57
3.3%
9,184 $
8.83
2.9%
9,406 $
9.01
2.1%
9,514 $
9.07
0.7%
9,853 $
9.39
3.5%
10,292
9.79
4.2%
(822) $
(16%)
(1,787) $
(17%)
(1,881) $
(17%)
(2,000) $
(18%)
(2,200) $
(19%)
(3,147) $
(25%)
(2,802) $
(22%)
(2,367)
(19%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Edenton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
16,812
105,332
72%
16,802
105,709
72%
16,831
105,668
72%
16,841
105,810
72%
16,847
105,923
72%
16,835
106,284
72%
16,867
106,248
72%
16,878
106,421
72%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
9,676
9.19
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.84
57,000 $
1.5570%
887 $
0.84
$000
/kWh
%
10,563 $
10.03
2.4%
11,273 $
10.66
6.3%
11,393 $
10.78
1.1%
11,571 $
10.94
1.4%
12,037 $
11.36
3.9%
12,254 $
11.53
1.5%
12,535 $
11.80
2.3%
13,386
12.58
6.6%
$000
%
(2,102) $
(17%)
(23) $
(0%)
120 $
1%
1,319 $
13%
1,530 $
15%
1,467 $
14%
1,487 $
13%
2,168
19%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
12,665 $
12.02
(0.2%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
11,296 $
10.69
(11.1%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
10,386
9.82
11,273 $
10.67
(0.2%)
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
10,949
10.36
10,252 $
9.69
(9.2%)
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
11,571
10.94
10,507 $
9.92
2.4%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
12,037
11.36
10,787 $
10.15
2.3%
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
12,254
11.53
11,049 $
10.40
2.5%
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
12,535
11.80
11,218
10.54
1.4%
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
13,386
12.58
28,500
1.5570%
444
0.42
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Edenton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
16,888
106,568
72%
16,873
106,871
72%
16,901
106,749
72%
16,906
106,794
72%
16,911
106,840
72%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
7,703
46%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
11,506 $
10.80
2.4%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
13,782
12.93
11,805 $
11.05
2.3%
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
14,174
13.26
12,073 $
11.31
2.4%
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
14,692
13.76
13,087 $
12.25
8.3%
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
15,125
14.16
14,048
13.15
7.3%
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
16,058
15.03
$000
%
$000
/kWh
72,624
63,377
136,001
7,024
7,024
79,648
63,377
143,025
$000
/kWh
%
13,782 $
12.93
2.8%
14,174 $
13.26
2.6%
14,692 $
13.76
3.8%
15,125 $
14.16
2.9%
16,058
15.03
6.1%
$000
%
2,276 $
20%
2,369 $
20%
2,618 $
22%
2,038 $
16%
2,010
14%
(15,370) $
(16%)
8,923 $
16%
(6,446)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Edenton
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$4.15 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Edenton
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Edenton
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
49,446
162,058
75%
50,120
328,720
75%
50,724
331,255
75%
51,309
334,343
74%
51,961
338,042
74%
52,554
341,892
74%
53,139
344,236
74%
53,716
347,232
74%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
20,049
41%
20,049
40%
20,049
40%
20,049
39%
20,049
39%
20,049
38%
20,049
38%
20,049
37%
31,179 $
9.48
3.6%
32,589 $
9.84
3.7%
34,089 $
10.20
3.6%
35,495 $
10.50
3.0%
38,525 $
11.27
7.3%
38,830 $
11.28
0.1%
39,262
11.31
0.2%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
12,526
7.73
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
14,844
9.16
$19.29
3.27
0.21
11,371
7.02
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
28,500 $
4.0525%
1,155 $
0.71
23,799
7.24
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
24,910
7.52
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
26,032
7.79
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
26,996
7.99
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
27,594
8.07
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
28,903
8.40
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
30,566
8.80
57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.70
57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.70
57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.69
57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.68
57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.68
57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.67
57,000
4.0525%
2,310
0.67
26,109 $
7.94
2.8%
27,220 $
8.22
3.5%
28,342 $
8.48
3.2%
29,306 $
8.67
2.3%
29,904 $
8.75
0.9%
31,213 $
9.07
3.7%
32,876
9.47
4.4%
(2,317) $
(16%)
(5,070) $
(16%)
(5,369) $
(16%)
(5,747) $
(17%)
(6,189) $
(17%)
(8,621) $
(22%)
(7,617) $
(20%)
(6,386)
(16%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
54,306
350,355
74%
54,907
354,330
74%
55,518
356,920
73%
56,123
360,201
73%
56,726
363,462
73%
57,340
367,605
73%
57,954
370,209
73%
58,588
373,771
73%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
20,049
37%
20,049
37%
20,049
36%
20,049
36%
20,049
35%
20,049
35%
20,049
35%
20,049
34%
39,599 $
11.30
(0.0%)
36,843 $
10.40
(8.0%)
37,323 $
10.46
0.6%
35,525 $
9.86
(5.7%)
36,927 $
10.16
3.0%
38,249 $
10.40
2.4%
39,522 $
10.68
2.6%
41,163
11.01
3.2%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$23.75
4.47
0.17
31,723
9.05
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
34,351
9.69
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
36,522
10.23
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
38,923
10.81
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
40,867
11.24
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
42,026
11.43
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
43,350
11.71
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
46,735
12.50
57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.66
57,000 $
4.0525%
2,310 $
0.65
34,033 $
9.71
2.6%
36,661 $
10.35
6.5%
37,677 $
10.56
2.0%
38,923 $
10.81
2.4%
40,867 $
11.24
4.1%
42,026 $
11.43
1.7%
43,350 $
11.71
2.4%
46,735
12.50
6.8%
(5,566) $
(14%)
(182) $
(0%)
354 $
1%
3,398 $
10%
3,941 $
11%
3,777 $
10%
3,827 $
10%
5,573
14%
28,500
4.0525%
1,155
0.32
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
59,182
376,976
73%
59,731
380,562
73%
60,217
381,968
72%
60,679
383,957
72%
61,144
385,955
72%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
20,049
34%
20,049
34%
20,049
33%
20,049
33%
20,049
33%
42,679 $
11.32
2.8%
44,248 $
11.63
2.7%
45,730 $
11.97
3.0%
49,124 $
12.79
6.9%
52,820
13.69
7.0%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
48,523
12.87
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
50,327
13.22
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
52,462
13.73
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
54,334
14.15
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
58,032
15.04
$000
%
$000
/kWh
232,277
18,283
$000
/kWh
%
48,523 $
12.87
2.9%
50,327 $
13.22
2.7%
52,462 $
13.73
3.9%
54,334 $
14.15
3.0%
58,032
15.04
6.3%
250,559
$000
%
5,845 $
14%
6,080 $
14%
6,732 $
15%
5,210 $
11%
5,213
10%
(42,717) $
(15%)
221,536
221,536
453,812
18,283
472,095
22,952 $
12%
(19,765)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$11.05 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Farmville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
8,862
25,264
65%
8,892
50,675
65%
8,909
50,564
65%
8,922
50,534
65%
8,942
50,539
65%
8,951
50,589
65%
8,973
50,501
64%
9,004
50,573
64%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
4,866
55%
4,866
55%
4,866
55%
4,866
55%
4,866
54%
4,866
54%
4,866
54%
4,866
54%
5,535 $
10.92
3.5%
5,721 $
11.32
3.6%
5,919 $
11.71
3.5%
6,172 $
12.21
4.3%
6,826 $
13.49
10.5%
6,801 $
13.47
(0.2%)
6,779
13.41
(0.5%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
1,906
7.55
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.9836%
280 $
1.11
$000
/kWh
%
2,187
8.66
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
2,667
10.56
$19.29
3.27
0.21
3,949
7.79
4,090
8.09
4,226
8.36
4,333
8.57
4,382
8.66
4,551
9.01
4,783
9.46
57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11
57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11
57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11
57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11
57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11
57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11
57,000
0.9836%
561
1.11
4,510 $
8.90
2.8%
4,650 $
9.20
3.3%
4,787 $
9.47
3.0%
4,894 $
9.68
2.2%
4,943 $
9.77
0.9%
5,112 $
10.12
3.6%
5,344
10.57
4.4%
(480) $
(18%)
(1,025) $
(19%)
(1,071) $
(19%)
(1,132) $
(19%)
(1,278) $
(21%)
(1,884) $
(28%)
(1,689) $
(25%)
(1,436)
(21%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Farmville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
9,044
50,695
64%
9,123
51,141
64%
9,204
51,388
64%
9,297
51,804
64%
9,384
52,191
63%
9,436
52,503
64%
9,496
52,642
63%
9,558
52,908
63%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
4,866
54%
4,866
53%
4,866
53%
4,866
52%
4,866
52%
4,866
52%
4,866
51%
4,866
51%
5,375 $
10.30
2.3%
5,550 $
10.57
2.6%
5,702 $
10.83
2.5%
5,723
10.82
(0.1%)
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
4,928
9.72
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.11
57,000 $
0.9836%
561 $
1.10
$000
/kWh
%
5,489 $
10.83
2.5%
5,911 $
11.56
6.7%
5,959 $
11.60
0.3%
6,072 $
11.72
1.1%
6,367 $
12.20
4.1%
6,503 $
12.39
1.5%
6,669 $
12.67
2.3%
7,127
13.47
6.3%
$000
%
(1,295) $
(19%)
25 $
0%
85 $
1%
857 $
16%
992 $
18%
953 $
17%
967 $
17%
1,404
25%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
6,784 $
13.38
(0.2%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
5,886 $
11.51
(14.0%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
5,350
10.46
5,874 $
11.43
(0.7%)
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
5,678
11.05
5,216 $
10.07
(11.9%)
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
6,072
11.72
6,367
12.20
6,503
12.39
6,669
12.67
7,127
13.47
28,500
0.9836%
280
0.55
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Farmville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
9,613
53,135
63%
9,658
53,410
63%
9,693
53,412
63%
9,723
53,496
63%
9,753
53,580
63%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
4,866
51%
4,866
50%
4,866
50%
4,866
50%
4,866
50%
5,890 $
11.08
2.5%
6,060 $
11.35
2.4%
6,180 $
11.57
2.0%
6,784 $
12.68
9.6%
7,269
13.57
7.0%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
7,363
13.86
7,595
14.22
7,873
14.74
8,111
15.16
8,569
15.99
$000
%
$000
/kWh
37,091
33,738
70,830
4,437
4,437
33,738
75,267
$000
/kWh
%
7,363 $
13.86
2.9%
7,595 $
14.22
2.6%
7,873 $
14.74
3.7%
8,111 $
15.16
2.9%
8,569
15.99
5.5%
41,529
$000
%
1,473 $
25%
1,534 $
25%
1,692 $
27%
1,327 $
20%
1,300
18%
(9,023) $
(18%)
5,785 $
21%
(3,238)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Farmville
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$3.35 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Farmville
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Farmville
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Fremont
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
2,177
6,909
72%
2,194
13,975
73%
2,200
13,982
73%
2,202
13,985
73%
2,206
14,011
72%
2,209
14,054
73%
2,213
14,041
72%
2,216
14,055
72%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
1,167
54%
1,167
53%
1,167
53%
1,167
53%
1,167
53%
1,167
53%
1,167
53%
1,167
53%
1,418 $
10.15
3.0%
1,466 $
10.49
3.4%
1,516 $
10.84
3.3%
1,578 $
11.26
3.9%
1,736 $
12.36
9.7%
1,731 $
12.33
(0.2%)
1,726
12.28
(0.4%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
493
7.13
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.2359%
67 $
0.97
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
680
9.85
$19.29
3.27
0.21
1,027
7.35
1,066
7.62
1,103
7.89
1,132
8.08
1,147
8.16
1,191
8.48
1,249
8.89
57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96
57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96
57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96
57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96
57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96
57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.96
57,000
0.2359%
134
0.96
1,161 $
8.31
2.5%
1,200 $
8.59
3.3%
1,237 $
8.85
3.0%
1,267 $
9.04
2.2%
1,281 $
9.12
0.8%
1,325 $
9.44
3.5%
1,383
9.84
4.3%
(120) $
(18%)
(257) $
(18%)
(266) $
(18%)
(279) $
(18%)
(311) $
(20%)
(455) $
(26%)
(406) $
(23%)
(342)
(20%)
560
8.11
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Fremont
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
2,221
14,091
72%
2,226
14,153
73%
2,233
14,170
72%
2,241
14,224
72%
2,249
14,282
72%
2,259
14,391
73%
2,273
14,467
73%
2,288
14,587
73%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
1,167
53%
1,167
52%
1,167
52%
1,167
52%
1,167
52%
1,167
52%
1,167
51%
1,167
51%
1,369 $
9.58
2.2%
1,415 $
9.83
2.6%
1,458 $
10.08
2.5%
1,482
10.16
0.8%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
1,287
9.13
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.95
57,000 $
0.2359%
134 $
0.95
$000
/kWh
%
1,421 $
10.08
2.5%
1,517 $
10.72
6.3%
1,527 $
10.78
0.5%
1,547 $
10.87
0.9%
1,614 $
11.30
3.9%
1,651 $
11.47
1.5%
1,697 $
11.73
2.3%
1,825
12.51
6.6%
$000
%
(305) $
(18%)
11 $
1%
29 $
2%
213 $
16%
245 $
18%
236 $
17%
239 $
16%
343
23%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
1,726 $
12.25
(0.2%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
1,507 $
10.64
(13.1%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
1,383
9.77
1,498 $
10.57
(0.7%)
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
1,460
10.30
1,334 $
9.38
(11.3%)
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
1,547
10.87
1,614
11.30
1,651
11.47
1,697
11.73
1,825
12.51
28,500
0.2359%
67
0.47
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Fremont
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
2,303
14,706
73%
2,317
14,847
73%
2,332
14,929
73%
2,347
15,049
73%
2,363
15,170
73%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
1,167
51%
1,167
50%
1,167
50%
1,167
50%
1,167
49%
1,531 $
10.41
2.5%
1,584 $
10.67
2.5%
1,630 $
10.92
2.3%
1,792 $
11.91
9.1%
1,945
12.82
7.7%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
1,891
12.86
1,958
13.19
2,041
13.67
2,116
14.06
2,265
14.93
$000
%
$000
/kWh
9,655
8,673
18,328
1,064
1,064
8,673
19,392
$000
/kWh
%
1,891 $
12.86
2.8%
1,958 $
13.19
2.6%
2,041 $
13.67
3.7%
2,116 $
14.06
2.9%
2,265
14.93
6.1%
10,719
$000
%
359 $
23%
374 $
24%
412 $
25%
324 $
18%
319
16%
(2,187) $
(17%)
1,419 $
20%
(768)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Fremont
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$0.80 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Fremont
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Fremont
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Greenville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
248,353
863,448
79%
249,507
1,743,451
80%
250,507
1,748,708
80%
251,281
1,756,499
80%
252,064
1,764,375
80%
252,538
1,773,933
80%
253,351
1,777,141
80%
254,233
1,786,024
80%
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
100,781
41%
100,781
40%
100,781
40%
100,781
40%
100,781
40%
100,781
40%
100,781
40%
100,781
40%
161,069 $
9.24
3.4%
167,323 $
9.57
3.6%
173,863 $
9.90
3.4%
179,807 $
10.19
3.0%
193,963 $
10.93
7.3%
194,442 $
10.94
0.1%
195,554
10.95
0.1%
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
77,139
8.93
$19.29
3.27
0.21
58,840
6.81
122,299
7.01
127,254
7.28
132,201
7.53
136,060
7.71
138,046
7.78
143,670
8.08
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
151,034
8.46
28,500 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
$
5,806 $
11,611 $
11,611 $
11,611 $
11,611 $
11,611 $
11,611 $
11,611
0.67
0.67
0.66
0.66
0.66
0.65
0.65
0.65
64,646
7.49
133,910 $
7.68
2.6%
138,865 $
7.94
3.4%
143,813 $
8.19
3.1%
147,671 $
8.37
2.2%
149,658 $
8.44
0.8%
155,281 $
8.74
3.6%
162,646
9.11
4.2%
(12,493) $
(16%)
(27,159) $
(17%)
(28,458) $
(17%)
(30,050) $
(17%)
(32,136) $
(18%)
(44,306) $
(23%)
(39,161) $
(20%)
(32,908)
(17%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Greenville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
255,225
1,796,033
80%
256,897
1,818,282
81%
258,714
1,831,803
81%
260,659
1,851,867
81%
262,479
1,870,479
81%
263,473
1,885,828
82%
264,720
1,893,294
82%
265,930
1,905,642
82%
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
100,781
39%
100,781
39%
100,781
39%
100,781
39%
100,781
38%
100,781
38%
100,781
38%
100,781
38%
196,371 $
10.93
(0.1%)
181,411 $
9.98
(8.7%)
183,024 $
9.99
0.1%
172,873 $
9.34
(6.6%)
179,258 $
9.58
2.7%
184,914 $
9.81
2.3%
190,362 $
10.05
2.5%
197,714
10.38
3.2%
$23.75
4.47
0.17
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
167,633 $
9.33
2.5%
179,756 $
9.89
5.9%
184,152 $
10.05
1.7%
189,321 $
10.22
1.7%
198,445 $
10.61
3.8%
203,260 $
10.78
1.6%
208,948 $
11.04
2.4%
225,032
11.81
7.0%
$000
%
(28,738) $
(15%)
(1,655) $
(1%)
1,128 $
1%
16,448 $
10%
19,187 $
11%
18,346 $
10%
18,586 $
10%
27,318
14%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
156,021
8.69
168,144
9.25
178,347
9.74
189,321
10.22
198,445
10.61
203,260
10.78
208,948
11.04
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
225,032
11.81
57,000 $
57,000 $
28,500
20.3709%
20.3709%
20.3709%
$
11,611 $
11,611 $
5,806
0.65
0.64
0.32
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Greenville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
266,981
1,916,319
82%
267,730
1,929,242
82%
268,455
1,931,140
82%
268,995
1,936,502
82%
269,536
1,941,879
82%
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
100,781
38%
100,781
38%
100,781
38%
100,781
37%
100,781
37%
204,038 $
10.65
2.6%
210,644 $
10.92
2.5%
216,948 $
11.23
2.9%
232,794 $
12.02
7.0%
251,052
12.93
7.5%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
232,726
12.14
240,508
12.47
250,053
12.95
258,255
13.34
1,163,062
91,902
1,254,964
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
276,536
14.24
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
232,726 $
12.14
2.8%
240,508 $
12.47
2.7%
250,053 $
12.95
3.9%
258,255 $
13.34
3.0%
276,536
14.24
6.8%
$000
%
28,687 $
14%
29,864 $
14%
33,106 $
15%
25,462 $
11%
25,484
10%
(223,717) $
(15%)
1,064,636
1,064,636
2,227,698
91,902
2,319,600
112,166 $
12%
(111,552)
(5%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Greenville
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$41.95 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Greenville
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Greenville
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hamilton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
588
1,629
63%
590
3,270
63%
593
3,267
63%
595
3,270
63%
597
3,277
63%
599
3,285
63%
601
3,284
62%
604
3,289
62%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
334
57%
334
57%
334
56%
334
56%
334
56%
334
56%
334
56%
334
55%
365 $
11.16
3.4%
378 $
11.55
3.6%
391 $
11.96
3.5%
409 $
12.48
4.4%
454 $
13.83
10.8%
453 $
13.79
(0.3%)
451
13.72
(0.5%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
125
7.66
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.0675%
19 $
1.18
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
176
10.79
$19.29
3.27
0.21
259
7.92
268
8.22
278
8.49
285
8.71
289
8.80
301
9.16
316
9.61
57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.18
57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.18
57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.18
57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.17
57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.17
57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.17
57,000
0.0675%
38
1.17
297 $
9.09
2.8%
307 $
9.39
3.3%
316 $
9.67
3.0%
324 $
9.88
2.2%
328 $
9.97
0.9%
339 $
10.33
3.6%
355
10.78
4.4%
(32) $
(18%)
(68) $
(19%)
(71) $
(19%)
(75) $
(19%)
(85) $
(21%)
(127) $
(28%)
(114) $
(25%)
(97)
(21%)
144
8.84
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hamilton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
607
3,297
62%
609
3,312
62%
613
3,317
62%
616
3,328
62%
619
3,339
62%
622
3,357
62%
626
3,363
61%
630
3,378
61%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
334
55%
334
55%
334
55%
334
54%
334
54%
334
54%
334
53%
334
53%
451 $
13.69
(0.2%)
388 $
11.70
(14.5%)
385 $
11.61
(0.8%)
337 $
10.13
(12.8%)
345 $
10.34
2.1%
357 $
10.62
2.7%
366 $
10.88
2.4%
365
10.80
(0.7%)
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
326
9.88
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.17
57,000 $
0.0675%
38 $
1.16
$000
/kWh
%
364 $
11.05
2.5%
391 $
11.81
6.9%
392 $
11.82
0.2%
397 $
11.94
1.0%
415 $
12.43
4.1%
423 $
12.61
1.5%
434 $
12.90
2.3%
463
13.70
6.2%
$000
%
(87) $
(19%)
3 $
1%
7 $
2%
60 $
18%
70 $
20%
67 $
19%
68 $
19%
98
27%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
$23.75
4.47
0.17
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
353
10.64
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
373
11.24
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
397
11.94
415
12.43
423
12.61
434
12.90
463
13.70
28,500
0.0675%
19
0.58
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hamilton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
633
3,390
61%
635
3,404
61%
637
3,402
61%
639
3,406
61%
641
3,409
61%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
334
53%
334
53%
334
52%
334
52%
334
52%
375 $
11.06
2.4%
385 $
11.32
2.3%
392 $
11.53
1.8%
432 $
12.69
10.1%
463
13.57
7.0%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
478
14.09
492
14.46
510
14.99
525
15.41
553
16.23
$000
%
$000
/kWh
2,442
2,191
4,633
305
305
2,191
4,938
$000
/kWh
%
478 $
14.09
2.9%
492 $
14.46
2.6%
510 $
14.99
3.6%
525 $
15.41
2.8%
553
16.23
5.3%
2,746
$000
%
103 $
27%
107 $
28%
118 $
30%
93 $
21%
91
20%
(600) $
(18%)
404 $
23%
(196)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Hamilton
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
Cents/kWh
12
11
10
9
8
5
4
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2
1
0
2015
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$0.20 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Hamilton
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
Cents/kWh
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Hamilton
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hertford
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
4,016
11,884
68%
4,013
23,797
68%
4,015
23,738
67%
4,018
23,742
67%
4,024
23,779
67%
4,028
23,845
68%
4,037
23,847
67%
4,047
23,920
67%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
1,913
48%
1,913
48%
1,913
48%
1,913
48%
1,913
48%
1,913
47%
1,913
47%
1,913
47%
2,439 $
10.25
3.7%
2,526 $
10.64
3.8%
2,619 $
11.03
3.7%
2,721 $
11.44
3.8%
2,982 $
12.50
9.3%
2,979 $
12.49
(0.1%)
2,980
12.46
(0.2%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
879
7.40
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.3867%
110 $
0.93
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
1,174
9.88
$19.29
3.27
0.21
1,815
7.63
1,879
7.91
1,942
8.18
1,992
8.38
2,017
8.46
2,096
8.79
2,203
9.21
57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.93
57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.93
57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.93
57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.93
57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.92
57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.92
57,000
0.3867%
220
0.92
2,036 $
8.55
2.8%
2,099 $
8.84
3.4%
2,163 $
9.11
3.0%
2,213 $
9.31
2.2%
2,237 $
9.38
0.8%
2,317 $
9.71
3.5%
2,423
10.13
4.3%
(185) $
(16%)
(403) $
(17%)
(426) $
(17%)
(456) $
(17%)
(508) $
(19%)
(744) $
(25%)
(662) $
(22%)
(557)
(19%)
989
8.32
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hertford
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
4,060
24,012
68%
4,078
24,222
68%
4,098
24,346
68%
4,120
24,536
68%
4,141
24,720
68%
4,156
24,898
68%
4,173
24,989
68%
4,191
25,138
68%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
1,913
47%
1,913
47%
1,913
47%
1,913
46%
1,913
46%
1,913
46%
1,913
46%
1,913
46%
2,656 $
10.91
(0.4%)
2,413 $
9.84
(9.8%)
2,488 $
10.06
2.3%
2,565 $
10.30
2.4%
2,636 $
10.55
2.4%
2,679
10.66
1.0%
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
2,270
9.46
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.92
57,000 $
0.3867%
220 $
0.91
$000
/kWh
%
2,491 $
10.37
2.4%
2,675 $
11.04
6.4%
2,709 $
11.13
0.8%
2,766 $
11.27
1.3%
2,894 $
11.71
3.8%
2,956 $
11.87
1.4%
3,031 $
12.13
2.2%
3,244
12.91
6.4%
$000
%
(495) $
(17%)
22 $
1%
54 $
2%
353 $
15%
406 $
16%
390 $
15%
396 $
15%
566
21%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
2,986 $
12.43
(0.2%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
2,653 $
10.95
(11.9%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
2,454
10.13
2,599
10.68
2,766
11.27
2,894
11.71
2,956
11.87
3,031
12.13
3,244
12.91
28,500
0.3867%
110
0.45
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hertford
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
4,206
25,266
69%
4,217
25,416
69%
4,228
25,437
69%
4,237
25,498
69%
4,245
25,558
69%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
1,913
45%
1,913
45%
1,913
45%
1,913
45%
1,913
45%
2,758 $
10.92
2.4%
2,840 $
11.18
2.4%
2,908 $
11.43
2.3%
3,163 $
12.40
8.5%
3,396
13.29
7.1%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
3,351
13.26
3,456
13.60
3,586
14.10
3,697
14.50
3,923
15.35
$000
%
$000
/kWh
17,053
15,362
32,415
1,745
1,745
15,362
34,160
$000
/kWh
%
3,351 $
13.26
2.8%
3,456 $
13.60
2.5%
3,586 $
14.10
3.7%
3,697 $
14.50
2.8%
3,923
15.35
5.9%
18,798
$000
%
592 $
21%
616 $
22%
678 $
23%
534 $
17%
526
15%
(3,528) $
(16%)
2,343 $
18%
(1,186)
(3%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Hertford
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.07 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Hertford
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Hertford
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hobgood
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
544
1,674
70%
545
3,350
70%
547
3,344
70%
550
3,354
70%
554
3,365
69%
557
3,377
69%
559
3,376
69%
563
3,386
69%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
361
66%
361
66%
361
66%
361
66%
361
65%
361
65%
361
65%
361
64%
370 $
11.03
3.0%
380 $
11.37
3.1%
393 $
11.71
3.0%
412 $
12.24
4.6%
461 $
13.66
11.5%
459 $
13.59
(0.5%)
456
13.46
(0.9%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
121
7.25
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.0730%
21 $
1.24
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
179
10.71
$19.29
3.27
0.21
251
7.49
260
7.78
270
8.05
278
8.26
282
8.35
293
8.69
309
9.12
57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.24
57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.24
57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.24
57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.24
57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.23
57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.23
57,000
0.0730%
42
1.23
292 $
8.73
2.8%
302 $
9.02
3.3%
312 $
9.29
3.0%
320 $
9.50
2.2%
324 $
9.59
0.9%
335 $
9.93
3.6%
351
10.35
4.3%
(37) $
(21%)
(77) $
(21%)
(78) $
(21%)
(81) $
(21%)
(92) $
(22%)
(137) $
(30%)
(124) $
(27%)
(105)
(23%)
142
8.49
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hobgood
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
567
3,403
68%
573
3,434
68%
579
3,452
68%
586
3,480
68%
593
3,509
68%
601
3,551
67%
609
3,580
67%
618
3,621
67%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
361
64%
361
63%
361
62%
361
62%
361
61%
361
60%
361
59%
361
58%
456 $
13.41
(0.3%)
385 $
11.22
(16.4%)
382 $
11.07
(1.3%)
329 $
9.45
(14.7%)
338 $
9.64
2.1%
353 $
9.95
3.2%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
319
9.39
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.22
57,000 $
0.0730%
42 $
1.21
$000
/kWh
%
361 $
10.61
2.5%
388 $
11.30
6.5%
389 $
11.26
(0.3%)
393 $
11.29
0.3%
413 $
11.76
4.2%
425 $
11.97
1.7%
439 $
12.26
2.4%
473
13.07
6.6%
$000
%
(95) $
(21%)
3 $
1%
7 $
2%
64 $
20%
75 $
22%
72 $
20%
73 $
20%
105
29%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
$23.75
4.47
0.17
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
346
10.09
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
368
10.66
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
393
11.29
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
413
11.76
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
425
11.97
366 $
10.22
2.8%
368
10.16
(0.6%)
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
439
12.26
473
13.07
28,500
0.0730%
21
0.60
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hobgood
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
626
3,657
67%
633
3,694
67%
638
3,704
66%
643
3,724
66%
648
3,743
66%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
361
58%
361
57%
361
57%
361
56%
361
56%
382 $
10.44
2.7%
396 $
10.71
2.6%
405 $
10.92
2.0%
450 $
12.09
10.7%
487
13.02
7.7%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
492
13.46
511
13.83
531
14.35
550
14.77
585
15.63
$000
%
$000
/kWh
2,383
2,242
4,625
329
329
2,242
4,954
$000
/kWh
%
492 $
13.46
3.0%
511 $
13.83
2.7%
531 $
14.35
3.8%
550 $
14.77
3.0%
585
15.63
5.8%
2,713
$000
%
111 $
29%
115 $
29%
127 $
31%
100 $
22%
98
20%
(661) $
(20%)
435 $
24%
(226)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Hobgood
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$0.24 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Hobgood
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Hobgood
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hookerton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
1,152
2,996
59%
1,156
6,041
60%
1,159
6,039
60%
1,159
6,034
59%
1,160
6,038
59%
1,160
6,044
59%
1,161
6,029
59%
1,162
6,028
59%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
523
45%
523
45%
523
45%
523
45%
523
45%
523
45%
523
45%
523
45%
655 $
10.85
3.8%
682 $
11.29
4.1%
708 $
11.74
4.0%
736 $
12.19
3.9%
807 $
13.35
9.5%
806 $
13.36
0.1%
805
13.36
0.0%
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
238
7.94
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.1057%
30 $
1.01
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
313
10.45
$19.29
3.27
0.21
494
8.18
512
8.47
528
8.75
541
8.96
547
9.04
567
9.41
595
9.87
57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00
57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00
57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00
57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00
57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00
57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00
57,000
0.1057%
60
1.00
554 $
9.17
2.6%
572 $
9.47
3.2%
588 $
9.75
2.9%
601 $
9.96
2.1%
607 $
10.04
0.8%
627 $
10.41
3.6%
655
10.87
4.5%
(45) $
(14%)
(101) $
(15%)
(110) $
(16%)
(120) $
(17%)
(135) $
(18%)
(200) $
(25%)
(178) $
(22%)
(150)
(19%)
268
8.94
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hookerton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
1,163
6,033
59%
1,164
6,052
59%
1,167
6,054
59%
1,169
6,067
59%
1,171
6,079
59%
1,173
6,108
59%
1,177
6,120
59%
1,180
6,147
59%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
523
45%
523
45%
523
45%
523
45%
523
45%
523
45%
523
44%
523
44%
806 $
13.35
(0.1%)
714 $
11.80
(11.7%)
713 $
11.78
(0.1%)
646 $
10.64
(9.7%)
662 $
10.89
2.4%
680 $
11.14
2.2%
697 $
11.38
2.2%
701
11.41
0.2%
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
611
10.13
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00
57,000 $
0.1057%
60 $
1.00
$000
/kWh
%
672 $
11.13
2.4%
721 $
11.91
7.0%
728 $
12.02
0.9%
742 $
12.23
1.8%
773 $
12.72
4.0%
787 $
12.88
1.3%
805 $
13.15
2.1%
856
13.93
5.9%
$000
%
(134) $
(17%)
7 $
1%
14 $
2%
97 $
15%
111 $
17%
107 $
16%
108 $
16%
155
22%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
$23.75
4.47
0.17
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
661
10.92
698
11.52
742
12.23
773
12.72
787
12.88
805
13.15
856
13.93
28,500
0.1057%
30
0.50
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Hookerton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
1,183
6,170
60%
1,186
6,199
60%
1,188
6,201
60%
1,190
6,212
60%
1,192
6,223
60%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
523
44%
523
44%
523
44%
523
44%
523
44%
720 $
11.68
2.3%
740 $
11.93
2.2%
755 $
12.17
2.0%
821 $
13.22
8.6%
875
14.07
6.4%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
883
14.30
908
14.65
940
15.17
968
15.58
1,019
16.38
$000
%
$000
/kWh
4,616
4,059
8,674
477
477
4,059
9,151
$000
/kWh
%
883 $
14.30
2.7%
908 $
14.65
2.4%
940 $
15.17
3.5%
968 $
15.58
2.7%
1,019
16.38
5.1%
5,092
$000
%
162 $
23%
169 $
23%
186 $
25%
146 $
18%
144
16%
(929) $
(15%)
641 $
19%
(289)
(3%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Hookerton
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
Cents/kWh
12
11
10
9
8
5
4
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2
1
0
2015
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$0.40 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Hookerton
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
Cents/kWh
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Hookerton
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Kinston
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
67,184
232,596
79%
67,371
467,202
79%
67,552
467,004
79%
67,707
467,744
79%
67,894
468,734
79%
68,019
470,343
79%
68,195
470,099
79%
68,359
470,909
79%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
37,814
56%
37,814
56%
37,814
56%
37,814
56%
37,814
56%
37,814
56%
37,814
55%
37,814
55%
46,971 $
10.05
3.0%
48,409 $
10.37
3.1%
49,955 $
10.68
3.0%
51,964 $
11.09
3.8%
57,119 $
12.14
9.5%
56,929 $
12.11
(0.3%)
56,726
12.05
(0.5%)
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
18,062
7.77
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
22,712
9.76
$19.29
3.27
0.21
15,883
6.83
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
28,500 $
7.6434%
2,178 $
0.94
32,896
7.04
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
34,145
7.31
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
35,402
7.57
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
36,382
7.76
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
36,872
7.84
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
38,315
8.15
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
40,194
8.54
57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93
57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93
57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93
57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93
57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93
57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.93
57,000
7.6434%
4,357
0.93
37,252 $
7.97
2.7%
38,501 $
8.24
3.4%
39,759 $
8.50
3.1%
40,738 $
8.69
2.2%
41,228 $
8.77
0.9%
42,672 $
9.08
3.6%
44,551
9.46
4.2%
(4,651) $
(20%)
(9,719) $
(21%)
(9,907) $
(20%)
(10,196) $
(20%)
(11,226) $
(22%)
(15,891) $
(28%)
(14,257) $
(25%)
(12,175)
(21%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Kinston
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
68,576
472,117
79%
68,803
474,547
79%
69,090
475,182
79%
69,354
476,781
78%
69,623
478,421
78%
69,897
481,252
79%
70,225
482,208
78%
70,556
484,351
78%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
37,814
55%
37,814
55%
37,814
55%
37,814
55%
37,814
54%
37,814
54%
37,814
54%
37,814
54%
56,741 $
12.02
(0.2%)
49,515 $
10.43
(13.2%)
49,201 $
10.35
(0.8%)
43,736 $
9.17
(11.4%)
44,831 $
9.37
2.2%
46,319 $
9.62
2.7%
47,620 $
9.88
2.6%
48,308
9.97
1.0%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$23.75
4.47
0.17
41,436
8.78
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
44,458
9.37
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
46,950
9.88
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
49,611
10.41
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
51,760
10.82
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
52,940
11.00
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
54,346
11.27
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
58,394
12.06
57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.92
57,000 $
7.6434%
4,357 $
0.92
45,793 $
9.70
2.5%
48,814 $
10.29
6.1%
49,129 $
10.34
0.5%
49,611 $
10.41
0.6%
51,760 $
10.82
4.0%
52,940 $
11.00
1.7%
54,346 $
11.27
2.5%
58,394
12.06
7.0%
(10,948) $
(19%)
(700) $
(1%)
(73) $
(0%)
5,875 $
13%
6,929 $
15%
6,621 $
14%
6,726 $
14%
10,086
21%
28,500
7.6434%
2,178
0.46
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Kinston
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
70,834
486,097
78%
71,026
488,365
78%
71,179
488,014
78%
71,275
488,411
78%
71,371
488,808
78%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
37,814
53%
37,814
53%
37,814
53%
37,814
53%
37,814
53%
49,692 $
10.22
2.5%
51,146 $
10.47
2.4%
52,289 $
10.71
2.3%
57,130 $
11.70
9.2%
61,724
12.63
8.0%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
60,314
12.41
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
62,238
12.74
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
64,599
13.24
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
66,597
13.64
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
71,038
14.53
$000
%
$000
/kWh
310,269
34,483
$000
/kWh
%
60,314 $
12.41
2.9%
62,238 $
12.74
2.7%
64,599 $
13.24
3.9%
66,597 $
13.64
3.0%
71,038
14.53
6.6%
344,752
$000
%
10,622 $
21%
11,092 $
22%
12,310 $
24%
9,467 $
17%
9,313
15%
(80,584) $
(19%)
276,195
276,195
586,464
34,483
620,947
41,130 $
17%
(39,454)
(6%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Kinston
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$22.54 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Kinston
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Kinston
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
6% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: La Grange
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
4,982
13,666
63%
4,983
27,422
63%
4,986
27,382
63%
4,991
27,425
63%
4,998
27,487
63%
5,003
27,596
63%
5,010
27,582
63%
5,018
27,651
63%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
2,108
42%
2,108
42%
2,108
42%
2,108
42%
2,108
42%
2,108
42%
2,108
42%
2,108
42%
2,842 $
10.36
4.1%
2,955 $
10.79
4.1%
3,076 $
11.22
3.9%
3,192 $
11.61
3.5%
3,483 $
12.62
8.7%
3,483 $
12.63
0.1%
3,493
12.63
0.0%
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
1,053
7.70
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.4261%
121 $
0.89
$000
/kWh
%
1,174
8.59
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
1,361
9.96
$19.29
3.27
0.21
2,178
7.94
2,254
8.23
2,331
8.50
2,391
8.70
2,421
8.77
2,515
9.12
2,642
9.55
57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.89
57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.89
57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.89
57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.88
57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.88
57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.88
57,000
0.4261%
243
0.88
2,421 $
8.83
2.7%
2,497 $
9.12
3.3%
2,573 $
9.38
2.9%
2,634 $
9.58
2.1%
2,664 $
9.65
0.8%
2,757 $
10.00
3.6%
2,885
10.43
4.4%
(187) $
(14%)
(421) $
(15%)
(458) $
(15%)
(503) $
(16%)
(559) $
(18%)
(819) $
(24%)
(726) $
(21%)
(609)
(17%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: La Grange
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
5,030
27,748
63%
5,044
27,934
63%
5,060
27,995
63%
5,076
28,128
63%
5,093
28,266
63%
5,112
28,491
64%
5,132
28,586
64%
5,154
28,765
64%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
2,108
42%
2,108
42%
2,108
42%
2,108
42%
2,108
41%
2,108
41%
2,108
41%
2,108
41%
3,164 $
11.30
0.1%
2,913 $
10.36
(8.4%)
3,001 $
10.62
2.5%
3,091 $
10.85
2.2%
3,172 $
11.09
2.3%
3,230
11.23
1.2%
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
2,720
9.80
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.88
57,000 $
0.4261%
243 $
0.87
$000
/kWh
%
2,963 $
10.68
2.4%
3,185 $
11.40
6.8%
3,231 $
11.54
1.2%
3,308 $
11.76
1.9%
3,453 $
12.22
3.9%
3,526 $
12.37
1.3%
3,612 $
12.63
2.1%
3,857
13.41
6.1%
$000
%
(538) $
(15%)
30 $
1%
67 $
2%
394 $
14%
452 $
15%
435 $
14%
440 $
14%
627
19%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
3,501 $
12.62
(0.1%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
3,155 $
11.29
(10.5%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
2,942
10.53
3,109
11.11
3,308
11.76
3,453
12.22
3,526
12.37
3,612
12.63
3,857
13.41
28,500
0.4261%
121
0.43
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: La Grange
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
5,173
28,919
64%
5,188
29,112
64%
5,198
29,129
64%
5,208
29,209
64%
5,218
29,290
64%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
2,108
41%
2,108
41%
2,108
41%
2,108
40%
2,108
40%
3,326 $
11.50
2.4%
3,426 $
11.77
2.3%
3,506 $
12.03
2.3%
3,794 $
12.99
7.9%
4,054
13.84
6.6%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
3,983
13.77
4,108
14.11
4,256
14.61
4,386
15.01
4,638
15.84
$000
%
$000
/kWh
20,450
18,275
38,725
1,922
1,922
18,275
40,647
$000
/kWh
%
3,983 $
13.77
2.7%
4,108 $
14.11
2.5%
4,256 $
14.61
3.6%
4,386 $
15.01
2.8%
4,638
15.84
5.5%
22,372
$000
%
657 $
20%
682 $
20%
751 $
21%
592 $
16%
584
14%
(3,816) $
(15%)
2,602 $
17%
(1,215)
(3%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: La Grange
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.30 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: La Grange
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: La Grange
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Laurinburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
22,337
69,795
71%
22,369
140,266
72%
22,435
140,542
72%
22,459
140,773
72%
22,493
141,095
72%
22,479
141,305
72%
22,530
141,416
72%
22,550
141,593
72%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
10,876
49%
10,876
49%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
14,225 $
10.14
3.4%
14,744 $
10.49
3.4%
15,273 $
10.85
3.4%
15,860 $
11.24
3.6%
17,324 $
12.26
9.1%
17,308 $
12.24
(0.2%)
17,289
12.21
(0.2%)
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
5,018
7.19
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
2.1984%
627 $
0.90
57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89
57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89
57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89
57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89
57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89
57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.89
57,000
2.1984%
1,253
0.88
$000
/kWh
%
5,645
8.09
11,644 $
8.30
2.6%
12,047 $
8.57
3.3%
12,427 $
8.83
3.0%
12,725 $
9.02
2.2%
12,851 $
9.09
0.8%
13,312 $
9.41
3.5%
13,898
9.82
4.3%
$000
%
(1,201) $
(18%)
(2,581) $
(18%)
(2,698) $
(18%)
(2,846) $
(19%)
(3,135) $
(20%)
(4,473) $
(26%)
(3,996) $
(23%)
(3,391)
(20%)
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
6,846
9.81
$19.29
3.27
0.21
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
10,391
7.41
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
10,794
7.68
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
11,174
7.94
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
11,472
8.13
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
11,598
8.21
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
12,059
8.53
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
12,645
8.93
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Laurinburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
22,573
141,798
72%
22,565
142,078
72%
22,620
142,230
72%
22,644
142,454
72%
22,667
142,654
72%
22,661
142,958
72%
22,715
143,097
72%
22,739
143,325
72%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
17,290 $
12.19
(0.1%)
15,295 $
10.77
(11.7%)
15,252 $
10.72
(0.4%)
13,767 $
9.66
(9.9%)
14,102 $
9.89
2.3%
14,479 $
10.13
2.5%
14,843 $
10.37
2.4%
15,027
10.48
1.1%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$23.75
4.47
0.17
13,009
9.17
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
13,954
9.82
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
14,726
10.35
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
15,567
10.93
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
16,202
11.36
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
16,489
11.53
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
16,882
11.80
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
18,031
12.58
57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.88
57,000 $
2.1984%
1,253 $
0.88
14,262 $
10.06
2.5%
15,207 $
10.70
6.4%
15,353 $
10.79
0.9%
15,567 $
10.93
1.2%
16,202 $
11.36
3.9%
16,489 $
11.53
1.6%
16,882 $
11.80
2.3%
18,031
12.58
6.6%
(3,028) $
(18%)
(89) $
(1%)
100 $
1%
1,800 $
13%
2,100 $
15%
2,010 $
14%
2,039 $
14%
3,004
20%
28,500
2.1984%
627
0.44
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Laurinburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
22,759
143,499
72%
22,743
143,696
72%
22,780
143,658
72%
22,777
143,590
72%
22,773
143,521
72%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
10,876
48%
15,409 $
10.74
2.4%
15,792 $
10.99
2.3%
16,145 $
11.24
2.3%
17,533 $
12.21
8.6%
18,816
13.11
7.4%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
18,566
12.94
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
19,082
13.28
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
19,787
13.77
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
20,356
14.18
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
21,595
15.05
$000
%
$000
/kWh
97,707
85,315
183,022
9,918
9,918
85,315
192,940
$000
/kWh
%
18,566 $
12.94
2.8%
19,082 $
13.28
2.6%
19,787 $
13.77
3.7%
20,356 $
14.18
2.9%
21,595
15.05
6.1%
107,625
$000
%
3,156 $
20%
3,290 $
21%
3,641 $
23%
2,822 $
16%
2,779
15%
(22,085) $
(17%)
12,321 $
17%
(9,764)
(5%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Laurinburg
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$5.90 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Laurinburg
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Laurinburg
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Louisburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
9,101
28,441
71%
9,163
57,643
72%
9,255
58,147
72%
9,329
58,766
72%
9,401
59,384
72%
9,450
60,066
73%
9,537
60,517
72%
9,606
61,093
73%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
4,178
46%
4,178
46%
4,178
45%
4,178
45%
4,178
44%
4,178
44%
4,178
44%
4,178
43%
5,668 $
9.83
3.3%
5,917 $
10.18
3.5%
6,179 $
10.51
3.3%
6,444 $
10.85
3.2%
7,049 $
11.74
8.2%
7,087 $
11.71
(0.2%)
7,135
11.68
(0.3%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
2,045
7.19
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.8445%
241 $
0.85
$000
/kWh
%
2,285
8.04
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
2,708
9.52
$19.29
3.27
0.21
4,263
7.40
4,459
7.67
4,653
7.92
4,812
8.10
4,903
8.16
5,133
8.48
5,421
8.87
57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.84
57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.83
57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.82
57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.81
57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.80
57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.80
57,000
0.8445%
481
0.79
4,745 $
8.23
2.4%
4,941 $
8.50
3.2%
5,134 $
8.74
2.8%
5,293 $
8.91
2.0%
5,385 $
8.96
0.6%
5,614 $
9.28
3.5%
5,903
9.66
4.1%
(423) $
(16%)
(924) $
(16%)
(977) $
(17%)
(1,044) $
(17%)
(1,151) $
(18%)
(1,665) $
(24%)
(1,473) $
(21%)
(1,233)
(17%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Louisburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
9,679
61,713
73%
9,735
62,484
73%
9,834
63,049
73%
9,913
63,728
73%
9,992
64,414
74%
10,053
65,241
74%
10,158
65,857
74%
10,244
66,612
74%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
4,178
43%
4,178
43%
4,178
42%
4,178
42%
4,178
42%
4,178
42%
4,178
41%
4,178
41%
6,567 $
10.42
(0.0%)
6,100 $
9.57
(8.1%)
6,324 $
9.82
2.6%
6,549 $
10.04
2.2%
6,779 $
10.29
2.5%
7,010
10.52
2.2%
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
5,620
9.11
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.78
57,000 $
0.8445%
481 $
0.77
$000
/kWh
%
6,101 $
9.89
2.3%
6,556 $
10.49
6.1%
6,702 $
10.63
1.3%
6,880 $
10.80
1.6%
7,218 $
11.21
3.8%
7,409 $
11.36
1.3%
7,651 $
11.62
2.3%
8,249
12.38
6.6%
$000
%
(1,082) $
(15%)
45 $
1%
134 $
2%
780 $
13%
894 $
14%
860 $
13%
872 $
13%
1,239
18%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
7,183 $
11.64
(0.3%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
6,512 $
10.42
(10.5%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
6,075
9.72
6,461
10.25
6,880
10.80
7,218
11.21
7,409
11.36
7,651
11.62
8,249
12.38
28,500
0.8445%
241
0.38
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Louisburg
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
10,326
67,321
74%
10,379
68,088
75%
10,469
68,551
75%
10,536
69,116
75%
10,602
69,685
75%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
4,178
40%
4,178
40%
4,178
40%
4,178
40%
4,178
39%
7,268 $
10.80
2.6%
7,529 $
11.06
2.4%
7,790 $
11.36
2.8%
8,449 $
12.22
7.6%
9,140
13.12
7.3%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
8,565
12.72
8,876
13.04
9,273
13.53
9,616
13.91
10,301
14.78
$000
%
$000
/kWh
41,338
39,140
80,479
3,810
3,810
39,140
84,289
$000
/kWh
%
8,565 $
12.72
2.7%
8,876 $
13.04
2.5%
9,273 $
13.53
3.8%
9,616 $
13.91
2.9%
10,301
14.78
6.2%
45,148
$000
%
1,297 $
18%
1,347 $
18%
1,482 $
19%
1,167 $
14%
1,160
13%
(7,938) $
(15%)
5,143 $
15%
(2,795)
(3%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Louisburg
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$2.23 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Louisburg
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Louisburg
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Lumberton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
45,943
147,072
73%
45,962
295,041
73%
45,987
294,537
73%
45,993
294,580
73%
46,016
294,799
73%
46,010
295,428
73%
46,033
294,893
73%
46,047
294,997
73%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
30,021 $
10.18
3.3%
31,000 $
10.53
3.4%
32,040 $
10.88
3.3%
33,256 $
11.28
3.7%
36,407 $
12.32
9.2%
36,291 $
12.31
(0.1%)
36,191
12.27
(0.3%)
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
11,788
8.01
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
14,484
9.85
$19.29
3.27
0.21
10,444
7.10
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
28,500 $
4.7153%
1,344 $
0.91
21,596
7.32
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
22,367
7.59
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
23,133
7.85
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
23,721
8.05
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
23,996
8.12
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
24,895
8.44
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
26,083
8.84
57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91
57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91
57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91
57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91
57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91
57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91
57,000
4.7153%
2,688
0.91
24,283 $
8.23
2.7%
25,055 $
8.51
3.4%
25,820 $
8.77
3.0%
26,408 $
8.96
2.2%
26,684 $
9.03
0.8%
27,583 $
9.35
3.6%
28,771
9.75
4.3%
(2,696) $
(19%)
(5,738) $
(19%)
(5,946) $
(19%)
(6,220) $
(19%)
(6,847) $
(21%)
(9,723) $
(27%)
(8,708) $
(24%)
(7,420)
(21%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Lumberton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
46,067
295,167
73%
46,077
295,965
73%
46,119
295,640
73%
46,143
295,860
73%
46,166
296,062
73%
46,175
296,860
73%
46,219
296,558
73%
46,254
296,890
73%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
51%
23,328
50%
23,328
50%
36,161 $
12.25
(0.1%)
31,796 $
10.74
(12.3%)
31,600 $
10.69
(0.5%)
28,288 $
9.56
(10.5%)
28,928 $
9.77
2.2%
29,733 $
10.02
2.5%
30,428 $
10.26
2.4%
30,720
10.35
0.8%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$23.75
4.47
0.17
26,816
9.09
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
28,763
9.72
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
30,297
10.25
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
31,988
10.81
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
33,273
11.24
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
33,886
11.41
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
34,643
11.68
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
37,008
12.47
57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91
57,000 $
4.7153%
2,688 $
0.91
29,504 $
10.00
2.5%
31,451 $
10.63
6.3%
31,641 $
10.70
0.7%
31,988 $
10.81
1.0%
33,273 $
11.24
3.9%
33,886 $
11.41
1.6%
34,643 $
11.68
2.3%
37,008
12.47
6.7%
(6,657) $
(18%)
(346) $
(1%)
42 $
0%
3,699 $
13%
4,344 $
15%
4,153 $
14%
4,215 $
14%
6,288
20%
28,500
4.7153%
1,344
0.45
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Lumberton
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
46,281
297,132
73%
46,280
297,810
73%
46,299
297,219
73%
46,296
297,133
73%
46,293
297,048
73%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
23,328
50%
23,328
50%
23,328
50%
23,328
50%
23,328
50%
31,479 $
10.59
2.4%
32,286 $
10.84
2.3%
32,929 $
11.08
2.2%
35,863 $
12.07
8.9%
38,551
12.98
7.5%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
38,095
12.82
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
39,191
13.16
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
40,587
13.66
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
41,766
14.06
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
44,354
14.93
$000
%
$000
/kWh
202,004
21,273
$000
/kWh
%
38,095 $
12.82
2.9%
39,191 $
13.16
2.6%
40,587 $
13.66
3.8%
41,766 $
14.06
2.9%
44,354
14.93
6.2%
223,276
$000
%
6,617 $
21%
6,905 $
21%
7,658 $
23%
5,903 $
16%
5,803
15%
(48,653) $
(18%)
175,159
175,159
377,162
21,273
398,435
25,687 $
17%
(22,966)
(5%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Lumberton
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$13.41 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Lumberton
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Lumberton
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
77,556
234,890
69%
77,687
472,927
69%
77,995
473,759
69%
78,249
475,679
69%
78,529
478,300
70%
78,678
481,575
70%
79,082
483,360
70%
79,385
486,192
70%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
32,835
42%
32,835
42%
32,835
42%
32,835
42%
32,835
42%
32,835
42%
32,835
42%
32,835
41%
47,287 $
10.00
3.6%
49,174 $
10.38
3.8%
51,170 $
10.76
3.6%
53,101 $
11.10
3.2%
57,713 $
11.98
7.9%
57,902 $
11.98
(0.0%)
58,207
11.97
(0.1%)
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
19,055
8.11
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
22,661
9.65
$19.29
3.27
0.21
17,163
7.31
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
28,500 $
6.6370%
1,892 $
0.81
35,581
7.52
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
36,968
7.80
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
38,348
8.06
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
39,465
8.25
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
40,053
8.32
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
41,765
8.64
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
43,969
9.04
57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.80
57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.80
57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.80
57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.79
57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.79
57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.78
57,000
6.6370%
3,783
0.78
39,364 $
8.32
2.6%
40,751 $
8.60
3.3%
42,131 $
8.86
3.0%
43,248 $
9.04
2.1%
43,836 $
9.10
0.7%
45,548 $
9.42
3.5%
47,752
9.82
4.2%
(3,606) $
(16%)
(7,923) $
(17%)
(8,423) $
(17%)
(9,039) $
(18%)
(9,853) $
(19%)
(13,877) $
(24%)
(12,354) $
(21%)
(10,455)
(18%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
79,727
489,428
70%
79,977
493,835
70%
80,452
496,391
70%
80,811
499,842
71%
81,177
503,375
71%
81,456
508,154
71%
81,957
510,985
71%
82,369
515,035
71%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
32,835
41%
32,835
41%
32,835
41%
32,835
41%
32,835
40%
32,835
40%
32,835
40%
32,835
40%
58,460 $
11.94
(0.2%)
53,207 $
10.77
(9.8%)
53,529 $
10.78
0.1%
49,804 $
9.96
(7.6%)
51,415 $
10.21
2.5%
53,007 $
10.43
2.1%
54,573 $
10.68
2.4%
56,120
10.90
2.0%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$23.75
4.47
0.17
45,417
9.28
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
49,005
9.92
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
51,917
10.46
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
55,147
11.03
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
57,653
11.45
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
58,975
11.61
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
60,625
11.86
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
65,061
12.63
57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.77
57,000 $
6.6370%
3,783 $
0.77
49,201 $
10.05
2.4%
52,788 $
10.69
6.3%
53,809 $
10.84
1.4%
55,147 $
11.03
1.8%
57,653 $
11.45
3.8%
58,975 $
11.61
1.3%
60,625 $
11.86
2.2%
65,061
12.63
6.5%
(9,260) $
(16%)
(419) $
(1%)
280 $
1%
5,343 $
11%
6,238 $
12%
5,968 $
11%
6,052 $
11%
8,941
16%
28,500
6.6370%
1,892
0.38
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
82,744
518,684
72%
82,967
522,917
72%
83,350
524,445
72%
83,583
526,579
72%
83,817
528,720
72%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
32,835
40%
32,835
40%
32,835
39%
32,835
39%
32,835
39%
57,911 $
11.17
2.5%
59,739 $
11.42
2.3%
61,463 $
11.72
2.6%
66,305 $
12.59
7.4%
71,221
13.47
7.0%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
67,305
12.98
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
69,525
13.30
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
72,314
13.79
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
74,673
14.18
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
79,521
15.04
$000
%
$000
/kWh
338,173
29,942
$000
/kWh
%
67,305 $
12.98
2.7%
69,525 $
13.30
2.5%
72,314 $
13.79
3.7%
74,673 $
14.18
2.8%
79,521
15.04
6.1%
368,115
$000
%
9,393 $
16%
9,786 $
16%
10,851 $
18%
8,368 $
13%
8,300
12%
(68,593) $
(16%)
308,273
308,273
646,446
29,942
676,388
36,641 $
13%
(31,952)
(5%)
5%
April 2015
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$16.56 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Pikeville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
1,619
4,433
63%
1,628
8,941
63%
1,629
8,940
63%
1,630
8,940
63%
1,633
8,951
63%
1,635
8,969
63%
1,635
8,958
63%
1,637
8,967
63%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
797
49%
797
49%
797
49%
797
49%
797
49%
797
49%
797
49%
797
49%
963 $
10.77
3.6%
999 $
11.17
3.8%
1,036 $
11.59
3.7%
1,078 $
12.05
4.0%
1,186 $
13.23
9.8%
1,183 $
13.21
(0.1%)
1,182
13.18
(0.2%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
342
7.71
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.1611%
46 $
1.04
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
461
10.39
$19.29
3.27
0.21
711
7.95
736
8.24
761
8.51
780
8.71
789
8.80
819
9.14
859
9.59
57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.03
57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.03
57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.03
57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.03
57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.02
57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.03
57,000
0.1611%
92
1.02
803 $
8.98
2.6%
828 $
9.26
3.2%
852 $
9.53
2.9%
872 $
9.74
2.1%
881 $
9.82
0.9%
911 $
10.17
3.5%
951
10.61
4.4%
(73) $
(16%)
(160) $
(17%)
(170) $
(17%)
(184) $
(18%)
(207) $
(19%)
(305) $
(26%)
(273) $
(23%)
(230)
(19%)
388
8.75
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Pikeville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
1,641
8,986
63%
1,645
9,023
63%
1,648
9,035
63%
1,653
9,069
63%
1,658
9,105
63%
1,665
9,170
63%
1,672
9,214
63%
1,681
9,283
63%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
797
49%
797
48%
797
48%
797
48%
797
48%
797
48%
797
48%
797
47%
1,182 $
13.16
(0.2%)
1,038 $
11.50
(12.6%)
1,034 $
11.45
(0.5%)
927 $
10.22
(10.7%)
951 $
10.45
2.2%
981 $
10.70
2.4%
1,008 $
10.94
2.2%
1,017
10.95
0.2%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
884
9.84
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.02
57,000 $
0.1611%
92 $
1.02
$000
/kWh
%
976 $
10.86
2.4%
1,047 $
11.61
6.9%
1,055 $
11.67
0.6%
1,073 $
11.83
1.3%
1,119 $
12.29
3.9%
1,143 $
12.46
1.4%
1,171 $
12.71
2.0%
1,252
13.49
6.1%
$000
%
(206) $
(17%)
9 $
1%
20 $
2%
146 $
16%
168 $
18%
162 $
16%
164 $
16%
235
23%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
$23.75
4.47
0.17
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
955
10.59
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
1,009
11.16
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
1,073
11.83
1,119
12.29
1,143
12.46
1,171
12.71
1,252
13.49
28,500
0.1611%
46
0.51
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Pikeville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
1,689
9,349
63%
1,698
9,423
63%
1,704
9,463
63%
1,712
9,523
64%
1,720
9,583
64%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
797
47%
797
47%
797
47%
797
47%
797
46%
1,048 $
11.21
2.4%
1,081 $
11.47
2.3%
1,107 $
11.70
2.0%
1,213 $
12.74
8.9%
1,304
13.61
6.8%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
kW
%
$
1,294
13.85
1,337
14.19
1,389
14.68
1,436
15.08
1,523
15.89
$000
%
$000
/kWh
6,659
5,946
12,605
727
727
7,386
5,946
13,332
$000
/kWh
%
1,294 $
13.85
2.7%
1,337 $
14.19
2.5%
1,389 $
14.68
3.4%
1,436 $
15.08
2.7%
1,523
15.89
5.4%
$000
%
246 $
23%
256 $
24%
282 $
25%
222 $
18%
218
17%
(1,435) $
(16%)
972 $
20%
(463)
(3%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Pikeville
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$0.53 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Pikeville
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Pikeville
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
5,746
18,417
73%
5,775
37,127
73%
5,790
37,212
73%
5,808
37,366
73%
5,830
37,567
74%
5,854
37,806
74%
5,868
37,890
74%
5,888
38,060
74%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
2,721
47%
2,721
47%
2,721
47%
2,721
47%
2,721
47%
2,721
46%
2,721
46%
2,721
46%
3,635 $
9.79
3.4%
3,771 $
10.13
3.5%
3,915 $
10.48
3.4%
4,072 $
10.84
3.4%
4,454 $
11.78
8.7%
4,455 $
11.76
(0.2%)
4,464
11.73
(0.2%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
1,307
7.10
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.5500%
157 $
0.85
$000
/kWh
%
1,464
7.95
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
1,744
9.47
$19.29
3.27
0.21
2,715
7.31
2,821
7.58
2,928
7.84
3,014
8.02
3,062
8.10
3,186
8.41
3,350
8.80
57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.84
57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.84
57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.84
57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.83
57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.83
57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.83
57,000
0.5500%
314
0.82
3,029 $
8.16
2.6%
3,134 $
8.42
3.2%
3,241 $
8.67
3.0%
3,328 $
8.86
2.1%
3,376 $
8.93
0.8%
3,500 $
9.24
3.5%
3,664
9.63
4.2%
(280) $
(16%)
(606) $
(17%)
(636) $
(17%)
(674) $
(17%)
(744) $
(18%)
(1,078) $
(24%)
(955) $
(21%)
(800)
(18%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
5,910
38,246
74%
5,937
38,522
74%
5,954
38,643
74%
5,976
38,832
74%
5,997
39,014
74%
6,023
39,283
74%
6,039
39,394
74%
6,062
39,599
75%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
2,721
46%
2,721
46%
2,721
46%
2,721
46%
2,721
45%
2,721
45%
2,721
45%
2,721
45%
4,008 $
10.37
(0.3%)
3,662 $
9.43
(9.1%)
3,769 $
9.66
2.5%
3,891 $
9.90
2.5%
3,996 $
10.14
2.4%
4,087
10.32
1.7%
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
3,458
9.04
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.82
57,000 $
0.5500%
314 $
0.81
$000
/kWh
%
3,771 $
9.86
2.4%
4,037 $
10.48
6.3%
4,091 $
10.59
1.0%
4,167 $
10.73
1.4%
4,350 $
11.15
3.9%
4,449 $
11.32
1.6%
4,562 $
11.58
2.2%
4,893
12.36
6.7%
$000
%
(705) $
(16%)
30 $
1%
83 $
2%
506 $
14%
580 $
15%
558 $
14%
565 $
14%
805
20%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
4,476 $
11.70
(0.2%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
4,008 $
10.40
(11.1%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
3,724
9.67
3,935
10.18
4,167
10.73
4,350
11.15
4,449
11.32
4,562
11.58
4,893
12.36
28,500
0.5500%
157
0.41
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
6,083
39,779
75%
6,104
40,008
75%
6,113
40,032
75%
6,124
40,120
75%
6,136
40,209
75%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
2,721
45%
2,721
45%
2,721
45%
2,721
44%
2,721
44%
4,210 $
10.58
2.5%
4,341 $
10.85
2.5%
4,450 $
11.12
2.5%
4,826 $
12.03
8.2%
5,200
12.93
7.5%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
5,053
12.70
5,218
13.04
5,415
13.53
5,585
13.92
5,951
14.80
$000
%
$000
/kWh
25,775
23,170
48,945
2,481
2,481
23,170
51,426
$000
/kWh
%
5,053 $
12.70
2.8%
5,218 $
13.04
2.7%
5,415 $
13.53
3.7%
5,585 $
13.92
2.9%
5,951
14.80
6.3%
28,256
$000
%
843 $
20%
876 $
20%
964 $
22%
759 $
16%
751
14%
(5,163) $
(15%)
3,341 $
17%
(1,823)
(3%)
5%
April 2015
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.51 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Robersonville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
3,992
13,931
80%
3,997
27,971
80%
4,004
27,951
80%
4,010
27,996
80%
4,019
28,072
80%
4,024
28,179
80%
4,032
28,178
80%
4,040
28,242
80%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
2,096
53%
2,096
52%
2,096
52%
2,096
52%
2,096
52%
2,096
52%
2,096
52%
2,096
52%
2,692 $
9.62
3.2%
2,778 $
9.94
3.3%
2,871 $
10.25
3.2%
2,984 $
10.63
3.7%
3,271 $
11.61
9.2%
3,263 $
11.58
(0.2%)
3,257
11.53
(0.4%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
948
6.80
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.4237%
121 $
0.87
$000
/kWh
%
1,068
7.67
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
1,300
9.33
$19.29
3.27
0.21
1,961
7.01
2,034
7.28
2,108
7.53
2,167
7.72
2,196
7.79
2,282
8.10
2,394
8.48
57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86
57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86
57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86
57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86
57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86
57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.86
57,000
0.4237%
242
0.86
2,202 $
7.87
2.7%
2,275 $
8.14
3.4%
2,350 $
8.39
3.1%
2,408 $
8.58
2.2%
2,438 $
8.65
0.8%
2,524 $
8.96
3.5%
2,635
9.33
4.2%
(231) $
(18%)
(490) $
(18%)
(503) $
(18%)
(521) $
(18%)
(576) $
(19%)
(833) $
(25%)
(739) $
(23%)
(621)
(19%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Robersonville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
4,050
28,330
80%
4,061
28,491
80%
4,074
28,544
80%
4,086
28,652
80%
4,098
28,759
80%
4,110
28,935
80%
4,125
29,000
80%
4,139
29,137
80%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
2,096
52%
2,096
52%
2,096
51%
2,096
51%
2,096
51%
2,096
51%
2,096
51%
2,096
51%
2,634 $
9.16
2.3%
2,721 $
9.40
2.7%
2,798 $
9.65
2.6%
2,854
9.80
1.5%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
2,468
8.71
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.85
57,000 $
0.4237%
242 $
0.85
$000
/kWh
%
2,710 $
9.56
2.5%
2,888 $
10.14
6.0%
2,915 $
10.21
0.7%
2,950 $
10.30
0.8%
3,076 $
10.70
3.9%
3,146 $
10.87
1.6%
3,229 $
11.13
2.4%
3,470
11.91
7.0%
$000
%
(550) $
(17%)
18 $
1%
57 $
2%
384 $
15%
442 $
17%
425 $
16%
431 $
15%
616
22%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
3,259 $
11.50
(0.2%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
2,870 $
10.07
(12.4%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
2,646
9.29
2,858 $
10.01
(0.6%)
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
2,794
9.79
2,566 $
8.95
(10.6%)
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
2,950
10.30
3,076
10.70
3,146
10.87
3,229
11.13
3,470
11.91
28,500
0.4237%
121
0.42
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Robersonville
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
4,152
29,248
80%
4,160
29,389
81%
4,167
29,371
80%
4,171
29,402
80%
4,175
29,432
80%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
2,096
50%
2,096
50%
2,096
50%
2,096
50%
2,096
50%
2,938 $
10.04
2.5%
3,026 $
10.30
2.5%
3,099 $
10.55
2.5%
3,377 $
11.49
8.8%
3,654
12.41
8.1%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
3,584
12.25
3,698
12.58
3,838
13.07
3,958
13.46
4,228
14.36
$000
%
$000
/kWh
18,480
16,416
34,896
1,911
1,911
16,416
36,807
$000
/kWh
%
3,584 $
12.25
2.9%
3,698 $
12.58
2.7%
3,838 $
13.07
3.9%
3,958 $
13.46
3.0%
4,228
14.36
6.7%
20,391
$000
%
646 $
22%
672 $
22%
739 $
24%
581 $
17%
574
16%
(4,049) $
(17%)
2,553 $
18%
(1,496)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Robersonville
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.32 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Robersonville
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Robersonville
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
102,872
356,771
79%
103,098
714,920
79%
103,233
713,731
79%
103,241
714,053
79%
103,162
714,518
79%
103,110
715,815
79%
103,143
714,724
79%
103,160
715,136
79%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
74,043 $
10.36
2.9%
76,083 $
10.66
2.9%
78,275 $
10.96
2.8%
81,473 $
11.40
4.0%
90,025 $
12.58
10.3%
89,488 $
12.52
(0.4%)
88,828
12.42
(0.8%)
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
28,019
7.85
57,693 $
8.07
2.8%
59,536 $
8.34
3.4%
61,369 $
8.59
3.0%
62,729 $
8.78
2.1%
63,366 $
8.85
0.8%
65,466 $
9.16
3.5%
68,212
9.54
4.1%
$000
%
(7,906) $
(22%)
(16,350) $
(22%)
(16,547) $
(22%)
(16,906) $
(22%)
(18,744) $
(23%)
(26,659) $
(30%)
(24,022) $
(27%)
(20,616)
(23%)
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
35,925
10.07
$19.29
3.27
0.21
24,342
6.82
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
50,339
7.04
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
52,182
7.31
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
54,015
7.56
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
55,374
7.75
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
56,011
7.82
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
58,111
8.13
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
60,858
8.51
28,500 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
$
3,677 $
7,355 $
7,355 $
7,355 $
7,355 $
7,355 $
7,355 $
7,355
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
103,200
716,088
79%
103,407
718,752
79%
103,495
719,163
79%
103,554
720,876
79%
103,640
722,707
80%
103,700
726,137
80%
103,812
727,236
80%
103,471
729,945
81%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
61%
63,835
62%
88,655 $
12.38
(0.3%)
75,774 $
10.54
(14.8%)
74,814 $
10.40
(1.3%)
64,833 $
8.99
(13.5%)
66,109 $
9.15
1.7%
68,226 $
9.40
2.7%
69,993 $
9.62
2.4%
70,027
9.59
(0.3%)
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
69,972 $
9.77
2.4%
74,428 $
10.36
6.0%
74,363 $
10.34
(0.1%)
74,505 $
10.34
(0.0%)
77,571 $
10.73
3.9%
79,169 $
10.90
1.6%
81,117 $
11.15
2.3%
86,847
11.90
6.7%
$000
%
(18,683) $
(21%)
(1,346) $
(2%)
(451) $
(1%)
9,672 $
15%
11,462 $
17%
10,943 $
16%
11,124 $
16%
16,820
24%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$23.75
4.47
0.17
62,617
8.74
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
67,074
9.33
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
70,686
9.83
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
74,505
10.34
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
77,571
10.73
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
79,169
10.90
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
81,117
11.15
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
86,847
11.90
57,000 $
57,000 $
28,500
12.9031%
12.9031%
12.9031%
$
7,355 $
7,355 $
3,677
1.03
1.02
0.51
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
103,519
732,128
81%
103,488
734,921
81%
103,460
734,292
81%
103,345
734,735
81%
103,229
735,179
81%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
63,835
62%
71,804 $
9.81
2.2%
73,706 $
10.03
2.3%
75,076 $
10.22
1.9%
82,733 $
11.26
10.1%
89,694
12.20
8.3%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
89,538
12.23
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
92,244
12.55
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
95,663
13.03
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
98,533
13.41
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
105,174
14.31
$000
%
$000
/kWh
471,343
58,211
529,555
$000
/kWh
%
89,538 $
12.23
2.8%
92,244 $
12.55
2.6%
95,663 $
13.03
3.8%
98,533 $
13.41
2.9%
105,174
14.31
6.7%
$000
%
17,734 $
25%
18,538 $
25%
20,587 $
27%
15,800 $
19%
15,481
17%
(135,764) $
(20%)
411,131
411,131
882,475
58,211
940,686
68,404 $
20%
(67,361)
(7%)
5%
April 2015
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
$41.67 Million
$7.35 Million
2033
2035
April 2015
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
7% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
4,721
15,423
75%
4,726
30,923
75%
4,734
30,874
74%
4,742
30,903
74%
4,752
30,946
74%
4,757
31,031
74%
4,767
30,993
74%
4,776
31,029
74%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
2,543
54%
2,543
54%
2,543
54%
2,543
54%
2,543
54%
2,543
53%
2,543
53%
2,543
53%
3,102 $
10.03
3.3%
3,202 $
10.37
3.4%
3,310 $
10.71
3.3%
3,444 $
11.13
3.9%
3,790 $
12.21
9.7%
3,777 $
12.19
(0.2%)
3,765
12.13
(0.4%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
1,084
7.03
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.5140%
146 $
0.95
$000
/kWh
%
1,230
7.98
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
1,498
9.71
$19.29
3.27
0.21
2,241
7.25
2,323
7.52
2,406
7.79
2,470
7.98
2,501
8.06
2,598
8.38
2,725
8.78
57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.95
57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.95
57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.95
57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.95
57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.94
57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.95
57,000
0.5140%
293
0.94
2,534 $
8.20
2.7%
2,616 $
8.47
3.4%
2,699 $
8.73
3.1%
2,763 $
8.93
2.2%
2,794 $
9.00
0.8%
2,891 $
9.33
3.6%
3,018
9.73
4.3%
(268) $
(18%)
(568) $
(18%)
(586) $
(18%)
(611) $
(18%)
(681) $
(20%)
(995) $
(26%)
(886) $
(23%)
(747)
(20%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
4,789
31,092
74%
4,804
31,240
74%
4,824
31,271
74%
4,842
31,367
74%
4,861
31,468
74%
4,881
31,649
74%
4,905
31,708
74%
4,930
31,847
74%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
2,543
53%
2,543
53%
2,543
53%
2,543
53%
2,543
52%
2,543
52%
2,543
52%
2,543
52%
2,984 $
9.48
2.3%
3,082 $
9.74
2.7%
3,169 $
9.99
2.6%
3,210
10.08
0.9%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
2,807
9.03
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.94
57,000 $
0.5140%
293 $
0.94
$000
/kWh
%
3,100 $
9.97
2.5%
3,310 $
10.59
6.3%
3,332 $
10.66
0.6%
3,372 $
10.75
0.9%
3,518 $
11.18
4.0%
3,596 $
11.36
1.6%
3,689 $
11.64
2.4%
3,957
12.43
6.8%
$000
%
(666) $
(18%)
23 $
1%
63 $
2%
463 $
16%
534 $
18%
513 $
17%
520 $
16%
747
23%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
3,766 $
12.11
(0.2%)
$23.75
4.47
0.17
3,287 $
10.52
(13.1%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
3,017
9.66
3,269 $
10.45
(0.6%)
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
3,186
10.19
2,909 $
9.27
(11.3%)
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
3,372
10.75
3,518
11.18
3,596
11.36
3,689
11.64
3,957
12.43
28,500
0.5140%
146
0.47
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
4,951
31,961
74%
4,965
32,110
74%
4,977
32,087
74%
4,985
32,123
74%
4,994
32,159
74%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
2,543
51%
2,543
51%
2,543
51%
2,543
51%
2,543
51%
3,304 $
10.34
2.5%
3,401 $
10.59
2.5%
3,476 $
10.83
2.3%
3,802 $
11.83
9.2%
4,100
12.75
7.7%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
4,087
12.79
4,215
13.13
4,373
13.63
4,507
14.03
4,794
14.91
$000
%
$000
/kWh
21,071
18,723
39,794
2,319
2,319
18,723
42,113
$000
/kWh
%
4,087 $
12.79
2.9%
4,215 $
13.13
2.7%
4,373 $
13.63
3.8%
4,507 $
14.03
3.0%
4,794
14.91
6.3%
23,390
$000
%
783 $
24%
814 $
24%
896 $
26%
705 $
19%
694
17%
(4,798) $
(17%)
3,090 $
20%
(1,709)
(4%)
5%
April 2015
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.50 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
4% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Selma
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
10,585
34,629
75%
10,668
70,403
75%
10,747
71,065
75%
10,804
71,695
76%
10,858
72,283
76%
10,902
72,988
76%
10,962
73,424
76%
11,014
74,001
77%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
4,537
43%
4,537
43%
4,537
42%
4,537
42%
4,537
42%
4,537
42%
4,537
41%
4,537
41%
6,659 $
9.46
3.2%
6,951 $
9.78
3.4%
7,248 $
10.11
3.4%
7,529 $
10.42
3.0%
8,184 $
11.21
7.6%
8,220 $
11.20
(0.2%)
8,274
11.18
(0.1%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
2,432
7.02
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.9171%
261 $
0.75
$000
/kWh
%
2,693
7.78
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
3,173
9.16
$19.29
3.27
0.21
5,081
7.22
5,311
7.47
5,533
7.72
5,709
7.90
5,810
7.96
6,066
8.26
6,393
8.64
57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.74
57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.74
57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.73
57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.72
57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.72
57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.71
57,000
0.9171%
523
0.71
5,604 $
7.96
2.3%
5,834 $
8.21
3.1%
6,056 $
8.45
2.9%
6,231 $
8.62
2.1%
6,333 $
8.68
0.6%
6,589 $
8.97
3.4%
6,915
9.34
4.1%
(480) $
(15%)
(1,055) $
(16%)
(1,117) $
(16%)
(1,193) $
(16%)
(1,298) $
(17%)
(1,851) $
(23%)
(1,631) $
(20%)
(1,359)
(16%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Selma
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
11,073
74,652
77%
11,129
75,511
77%
11,204
76,120
78%
11,275
76,908
78%
11,348
77,727
78%
11,418
78,750
79%
11,504
79,489
79%
11,589
80,452
79%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
4,537
41%
4,537
41%
4,537
40%
4,537
40%
4,537
40%
4,537
40%
4,537
39%
4,537
39%
8,322 $
11.15
(0.3%)
7,618 $
10.09
(9.5%)
7,679 $
10.09
(0.0%)
7,191 $
9.35
(7.3%)
7,455 $
9.59
2.6%
7,723 $
9.81
2.3%
7,986 $
10.05
2.4%
8,307
10.33
2.8%
$23.75
4.47
0.17
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
6,617
8.86
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.70
57,000 $
0.9171%
523 $
0.69
$000
/kWh
%
7,140 $
9.56
2.4%
7,656 $
10.14
6.0%
7,830 $
10.29
1.4%
8,036 $
10.45
1.6%
8,424 $
10.84
3.7%
8,655 $
10.99
1.4%
8,930 $
11.23
2.2%
9,647
11.99
6.7%
$000
%
(1,182) $
(14%)
39 $
1%
151 $
2%
846 $
12%
969 $
13%
932 $
12%
944 $
12%
1,339
16%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
7,134
9.45
7,568
9.94
8,036
10.45
8,424
10.84
8,655
10.99
8,930
11.23
9,647
11.99
28,500
0.9171%
261
0.34
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Selma
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
11,673
81,392
80%
11,744
82,447
80%
11,823
83,085
80%
11,891
83,844
80%
11,960
84,610
81%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
4,537
39%
4,537
39%
4,537
38%
4,537
38%
4,537
38%
8,620 $
10.59
2.6%
8,949 $
10.85
2.5%
9,272 $
11.16
2.8%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
10,022
12.31
10,404
12.62
10,874
13.09
10,028 $
11.96
7.2%
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
11,286
13.46
10,879
12.86
7.5%
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
12,136
14.34
$000
%
$000
/kWh
48,910
45,819
94,729
4,137
4,137
45,819
98,866
$000
/kWh
%
10,022 $
12.31
2.7%
10,404 $
12.62
2.5%
10,874 $
13.09
3.7%
11,286 $
13.46
2.9%
12,136
14.34
6.6%
53,048
$000
%
1,402 $
16%
1,455 $
16%
1,602 $
17%
1,258 $
13%
1,257
12%
(8,912) $
(14%)
5,564 $
14%
(3,348)
(3%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Selma
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$2.11 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Selma
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Selma
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Smithfield
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
24,240
87,759
83%
24,329
176,805
83%
24,416
177,068
83%
24,477
177,550
83%
24,537
178,031
83%
24,583
178,812
83%
24,644
178,841
83%
24,699
179,259
83%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
11,196
46%
11,196
46%
11,196
46%
11,196
46%
11,196
46%
11,196
46%
11,196
45%
11,196
45%
16,402 $
9.28
3.2%
16,978 $
9.59
3.4%
17,580 $
9.90
3.3%
18,202 $
10.22
3.3%
19,754 $
11.05
8.0%
19,749 $
11.04
(0.0%)
19,775
11.03
(0.1%)
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
5,864
6.68
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
2.2631%
645 $
0.73
57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.73
57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.73
57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.73
57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.72
57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.72
57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.72
57,000
2.2631%
1,290
0.72
$000
/kWh
%
6,509
7.42
13,458 $
7.61
2.6%
13,942 $
7.87
3.4%
14,423 $
8.12
3.2%
14,792 $
8.31
2.3%
14,983 $
8.38
0.8%
15,523 $
8.68
3.6%
16,220
9.05
4.2%
$000
%
(1,380) $
(17%)
(2,944) $
(18%)
(3,036) $
(18%)
(3,158) $
(18%)
(3,411) $
(19%)
(4,771) $
(24%)
(4,226) $
(21%)
(3,555)
(18%)
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
7,889
8.99
$19.29
3.27
0.21
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
12,168
6.88
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
12,652
7.15
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
13,133
7.40
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
13,502
7.58
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
13,693
7.66
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
14,233
7.96
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
14,930
8.33
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Smithfield
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
24,763
179,769
83%
24,826
180,730
83%
24,912
180,998
83%
24,992
181,665
83%
25,074
182,342
83%
25,150
183,441
83%
25,250
183,830
83%
25,347
184,662
83%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
11,196
45%
11,196
45%
11,196
45%
11,196
45%
11,196
45%
11,196
45%
11,196
44%
11,196
44%
19,808 $
11.02
(0.1%)
17,876 $
9.89
(10.2%)
17,881 $
9.88
(0.1%)
16,464 $
9.06
(8.3%)
16,947 $
9.29
2.5%
17,481 $
9.53
2.5%
17,979 $
9.78
2.6%
18,529
10.03
2.6%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$23.75
4.47
0.17
15,393
8.56
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
16,481
9.12
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
17,396
9.61
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
18,348
10.10
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
19,138
10.50
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
19,579
10.67
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
20,105
10.94
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
21,635
11.72
57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.72
57,000 $
2.2631%
1,290 $
0.71
16,683 $
9.28
2.6%
17,771 $
9.83
6.0%
18,041 $
9.97
1.4%
18,348 $
10.10
1.3%
19,138 $
10.50
3.9%
19,579 $
10.67
1.7%
20,105 $
10.94
2.5%
21,635
11.72
7.1%
(3,124) $
(16%)
(105) $
(1%)
160 $
1%
1,884 $
11%
2,191 $
13%
2,098 $
12%
2,127 $
12%
3,106
17%
28,500
2.2631%
645
0.36
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Smithfield
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
25,438
185,433
83%
25,511
186,501
83%
25,589
186,679
83%
25,653
187,199
83%
25,718
187,721
83%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
11,196
44%
11,196
44%
11,196
44%
11,196
44%
11,196
44%
19,096 $
10.30
2.6%
19,700 $
10.56
2.6%
20,264 $
10.86
2.8%
21,907 $
11.70
7.8%
23,702
12.63
7.9%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
22,357
12.06
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
23,095
12.38
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
24,019
12.87
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
24,816
13.26
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
26,596
14.17
$000
%
$000
/kWh
115,064
10,210
$000
/kWh
%
22,357 $
12.06
2.9%
23,095 $
12.38
2.7%
24,019 $
12.87
3.9%
24,816 $
13.26
3.0%
26,596
14.17
6.9%
125,273
$000
%
3,261 $
17%
3,395 $
17%
3,755 $
19%
2,910 $
13%
2,894
12%
(23,973) $
(16%)
102,473
102,473
217,536
10,210
227,746
12,781 $
14%
(11,192)
(5%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Smithfield
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$5.21 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Smithfield
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Smithfield
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Southport
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
9,056
28,198
71%
9,120
56,812
71%
9,178
57,189
71%
9,226
57,500
71%
9,269
57,778
71%
9,301
57,989
71%
9,332
58,190
71%
9,357
58,352
71%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
3,644
40%
3,644
40%
3,644
40%
3,644
39%
3,644
39%
3,644
39%
3,644
39%
3,644
39%
5,444 $
9.58
3.9%
5,686 $
9.94
3.8%
5,933 $
10.32
3.8%
6,151 $
10.65
3.2%
6,661 $
11.49
7.9%
6,684 $
11.49
0.0%
6,718
11.51
0.2%
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$23.37
4.30
0.16
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
2,031
7.20
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
0.7366%
210 $
0.74
$000
/kWh
%
2,241
7.95
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
2,601
9.22
$19.29
3.27
0.21
4,223
7.43
4,404
7.70
4,577
7.96
4,712
8.16
4,779
8.24
4,978
8.55
5,229
8.96
57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.74
57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.73
57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.73
57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.73
57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.72
57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.72
57,000
0.7366%
420
0.72
4,643 $
8.17
2.8%
4,824 $
8.44
3.2%
4,997 $
8.69
3.0%
5,132 $
8.88
2.2%
5,199 $
8.97
0.9%
5,398 $
9.28
3.5%
5,649
9.68
4.4%
(360) $
(14%)
(801) $
(15%)
(862) $
(15%)
(935) $
(16%)
(1,019) $
(17%)
(1,462) $
(22%)
(1,286) $
(19%)
(1,069)
(16%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Southport
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
9,379
58,496
71%
9,396
58,608
71%
9,417
58,740
71%
9,432
58,836
71%
9,445
58,916
71%
9,453
58,966
71%
9,467
59,053
71%
9,477
59,117
71%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
3,644
39%
3,644
39%
3,644
39%
3,644
39%
3,644
39%
3,644
39%
3,644
38%
3,644
38%
6,734 $
11.51
(0.0%)
6,154 $
10.50
(8.8%)
6,182 $
10.52
0.2%
5,767 $
9.80
(6.9%)
5,933 $
10.07
2.7%
6,082 $
10.32
2.4%
6,234 $
10.56
2.3%
6,388
10.81
2.3%
$23.75
4.47
0.17
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$33.68
5.97
0.19
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
5,385
9.21
$000
%
$000
/kWh
57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.72
57,000 $
0.7366%
420 $
0.72
$000
/kWh
%
5,805 $
9.92
2.5%
6,204 $
10.59
6.7%
6,318 $
10.76
1.6%
6,460 $
10.98
2.1%
6,725 $
11.41
4.0%
6,844 $
11.61
1.7%
7,004 $
11.86
2.2%
7,477
12.65
6.6%
$000
%
(929) $
(14%)
51 $
1%
135 $
2%
693 $
12%
792 $
13%
761 $
13%
770 $
12%
1,089
17%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
5,785
9.87
6,108
10.40
6,460
10.98
6,725
11.41
6,844
11.61
7,004
11.86
7,477
12.65
28,500
0.7366%
210
0.36
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Southport
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
9,485
59,165
71%
9,486
59,170
71%
9,490
59,198
71%
9,489
59,191
71%
9,488
59,185
71%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
3,644
38%
3,644
38%
3,644
38%
3,644
38%
3,644
38%
6,558 $
11.08
2.6%
6,726 $
11.37
2.6%
6,897 $
11.65
2.5%
7,409 $
12.52
7.4%
7,927
13.39
7.0%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$33.78
8.39
0.22
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
7,697
13.01
7,908
13.36
8,197
13.85
8,434
14.25
8,944
15.11
$000
%
$000
/kWh
40,178
35,376
75,554
3,323
3,323
35,376
78,877
$000
/kWh
%
7,697 $
13.01
2.9%
7,908 $
13.36
2.7%
8,197 $
13.85
3.6%
8,434 $
14.25
2.9%
8,944
15.11
6.1%
43,501
$000
%
1,139 $
17%
1,182 $
18%
1,300 $
19%
1,024 $
14%
1,017
13%
(6,928) $
(14%)
4,530 $
15%
(2,399)
(3%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Southport
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.86 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Southport
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Southport
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
3% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Tarboro
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
26,670
120,724
103%
26,649
241,730
104%
26,644
240,995
103%
26,651
240,945
103%
26,671
240,998
103%
26,683
241,547
103%
26,707
241,028
103%
26,735
241,135
103%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
18,157
68%
18,157
68%
18,157
68%
18,157
68%
18,157
68%
18,157
68%
18,157
68%
18,157
68%
22,318 $
9.23
2.3%
22,793 $
9.46
2.4%
23,331 $
9.68
2.4%
24,236 $
10.06
3.9%
26,679 $
11.04
9.8%
26,493 $
10.99
(0.5%)
26,266
10.89
(0.9%)
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
7,295
6.04
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
3.6701%
1,046 $
0.87
57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87
57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87
57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87
57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87
57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87
57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87
57,000
3.6701%
2,092
0.87
$000
/kWh
%
8,341
6.91
17,138 $
7.09
2.6%
17,690 $
7.34
3.5%
18,275 $
7.58
3.3%
18,713 $
7.76
2.4%
18,928 $
7.84
0.9%
19,555 $
8.11
3.5%
20,355
8.44
4.0%
$000
%
(2,554) $
(23%)
(5,180) $
(23%)
(5,103) $
(22%)
(5,056) $
(22%)
(5,524) $
(23%)
(7,751) $
(29%)
(6,938) $
(26%)
(5,911)
(23%)
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
10,895
9.02
$19.29
3.27
0.21
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
15,046
6.22
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
15,598
6.47
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
16,183
6.72
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
16,621
6.90
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
16,836
6.97
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
17,463
7.25
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
18,263
7.57
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Tarboro
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
26,782
241,408
103%
26,840
242,361
103%
26,912
242,281
103%
26,982
242,769
103%
27,056
243,287
103%
27,135
244,449
103%
27,227
244,550
103%
27,325
245,292
102%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
18,157
68%
18,157
68%
18,157
67%
18,157
67%
18,157
67%
18,157
67%
18,157
67%
18,157
66%
26,214 $
10.86
(0.3%)
22,445 $
9.26
(14.7%)
22,125 $
9.13
(1.4%)
19,200 $
7.91
(13.4%)
19,608 $
8.06
1.9%
20,327 $
8.32
3.2%
20,935 $
8.56
2.9%
21,321
8.69
1.5%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$23.75
4.47
0.17
18,827
7.80
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
19,991
8.25
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
21,055
8.69
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
22,037
9.08
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
22,955
9.44
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
23,527
9.62
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
24,185
9.89
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
26,175
10.67
57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.87
57,000 $
3.6701%
2,092 $
0.86
20,919 $
8.67
2.7%
22,083 $
9.11
5.2%
22,101 $
9.12
0.1%
22,037 $
9.08
(0.5%)
22,955 $
9.44
3.9%
23,527 $
9.62
2.0%
24,185 $
9.89
2.8%
26,175
10.67
7.9%
(5,296) $
(20%)
(362) $
(2%)
(24) $
(0%)
2,836 $
15%
3,348 $
17%
3,199 $
16%
3,250 $
16%
4,854
23%
28,500
3.6701%
1,046
0.43
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Tarboro
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
27,408
245,895
102%
27,466
246,882
103%
27,507
246,528
102%
27,539
246,691
102%
27,571
246,853
102%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
18,157
66%
18,157
66%
18,157
66%
18,157
66%
18,157
66%
21,928 $
8.92
2.6%
22,602 $
9.16
2.7%
23,148 $
9.39
2.6%
25,474 $
10.33
10.0%
27,944
11.32
9.6%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
27,043
11.00
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
27,944
11.32
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
29,068
11.79
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
30,032
12.17
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
32,441
13.14
$000
%
$000
/kWh
141,181
16,557
$000
/kWh
%
27,043 $
11.00
3.1%
27,944 $
11.32
2.9%
29,068 $
11.79
4.2%
30,032 $
12.17
3.2%
32,441
13.14
7.9%
157,739
$000
%
5,115 $
23%
5,342 $
24%
5,920 $
26%
4,558 $
18%
4,497
16%
(40,313) $
(20%)
123,720
123,720
264,901
16,557
281,459
19,828 $
19%
(20,485)
(7%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Tarboro
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
$12.33 Million
$2.09 Million
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Tarboro
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Tarboro
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
7% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
23,279
78,322
77%
24,282
159,923
75%
24,836
162,925
75%
25,337
165,945
75%
25,838
168,960
75%
26,283
172,004
75%
26,828
174,868
74%
27,325
177,848
74%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
5,589
24%
5,589
23%
5,589
23%
5,589
22%
5,589
22%
5,589
21%
5,589
21%
5,589
20%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
5,424
6.93
$000
%
$000
/kWh
28,500 $
1.1297%
322 $
0.41
57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.40
57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.40
57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.39
57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.38
57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.37
57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.37
57,000
1.1297%
644
0.36
$000
/kWh
%
5,746
7.34
12,198 $
7.63
4.0%
12,868 $
7.90
3.6%
13,532 $
8.15
3.2%
14,103 $
8.35
2.4%
14,487 $
8.42
0.9%
15,282 $
8.74
3.8%
16,247
9.14
4.5%
$000
%
(601) $
(9%)
(1,425) $
(10%)
(1,636) $
(11%)
(1,884) $
(12%)
(1,916) $
(12%)
(2,559) $
(15%)
(2,165) $
(12%)
(1,715)
(10%)
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
6,347
8.10
$19.29
3.27
0.21
13,623 $
8.52
5.1%
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
11,554
7.22
14,505 $
8.90
4.5%
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
12,224
7.50
15,416 $
9.29
4.3%
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
12,888
7.77
16,020 $
9.48
2.1%
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
13,459
7.97
17,046 $
9.91
4.5%
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
13,843
8.05
17,447 $
9.98
0.7%
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
14,638
8.37
17,962
10.10
1.2%
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
15,603
8.77
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
27,830
180,899
74%
28,288
184,110
74%
28,858
187,176
74%
29,376
190,352
74%
29,896
193,551
74%
30,362
196,885
74%
30,949
200,067
74%
31,484
203,402
74%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
5,589
20%
5,589
20%
5,589
19%
5,589
19%
5,589
19%
5,589
18%
5,589
18%
5,589
18%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
18,310 $
10.12
0.2%
$23.75
4.47
0.17
16,320
9.02
18,297 $
9.94
(1.8%)
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
17,770
9.65
18,947 $
10.12
1.9%
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
19,064
10.18
19,257 $
10.12
(0.1%)
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
20,460
10.75
20,295 $
10.49
3.6%
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
21,637
11.18
21,073 $
10.70
2.1%
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
22,368
11.36
21,971 $
10.98
2.6%
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
23,278
11.63
23,511
11.56
5.3%
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
25,272
12.42
57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.36
57,000 $
1.1297%
644 $
0.35
16,964 $
9.38
2.7%
18,414 $
10.00
6.7%
19,386 $
10.36
3.6%
20,460 $
10.75
3.8%
21,637 $
11.18
4.0%
22,368 $
11.36
1.6%
23,278 $
11.63
2.4%
25,272
12.42
6.8%
(1,346) $
(7%)
117 $
1%
439 $
2%
1,202 $
6%
1,342 $
7%
1,296 $
6%
1,306 $
6%
1,761
7%
28,500
1.1297%
322
0.17
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
32,014
206,692
74%
32,471
210,006
74%
33,047
213,029
74%
33,554
216,110
74%
34,069
219,235
73%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
5,589
17%
5,589
17%
5,589
17%
5,589
17%
5,589
16%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
24,598 $
11.90
3.0%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
26,426
12.79
25,686 $
12.23
2.8%
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
27,568
13.13
26,965 $
12.66
3.5%
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
29,032
13.63
28,695 $
13.28
4.9%
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
30,327
14.03
30,987
14.13
6.4%
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
32,695
14.91
$000
%
$000
/kWh
116,785
5,097
$000
/kWh
%
26,426 $
12.79
2.9%
27,568 $
13.13
2.7%
29,032 $
13.63
3.8%
30,327 $
14.03
3.0%
32,695
14.91
6.3%
121,881
$000
%
1,828 $
7%
1,882 $
7%
2,068 $
8%
1,632 $
6%
1,709
6%
(12,052) $
(9%)
120,307
120,307
237,092
5,097
242,188
7,451 $
7%
(4,601)
(2%)
5%
April 2015
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$1.89 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
2% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Washington
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
42,618
146,178
78%
42,892
294,672
78%
42,977
295,460
78%
43,161
296,911
79%
43,434
299,002
79%
43,737
301,296
79%
43,881
302,460
79%
44,116
304,270
79%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
20,220
47%
20,220
47%
20,220
47%
20,220
47%
20,220
47%
20,220
46%
20,220
46%
20,220
46%
28,373 $
9.63
3.3%
29,382 $
9.94
3.3%
30,483 $
10.27
3.2%
31,699 $
10.60
3.3%
34,593 $
11.48
8.3%
34,639 $
11.45
(0.3%)
34,761
11.42
(0.2%)
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
11,193
7.66
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
13,631
9.32
$19.29
3.27
0.21
10,028
6.86
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$
28,500 $
4.0871%
1,165 $
0.80
20,844
7.07
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$
21,661
7.33
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$
22,518
7.58
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$
23,239
7.77
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$
23,662
7.85
$22.02
4.16
0.16
$
24,653
8.15
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
25,956
8.53
57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.79
57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.79
57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.78
57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.78
57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.77
57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.77
57,000
4.0871%
2,330
0.77
23,174 $
7.86
2.7%
23,991 $
8.12
3.3%
24,848 $
8.37
3.1%
25,569 $
8.55
2.2%
25,991 $
8.63
0.9%
26,983 $
8.92
3.4%
28,286
9.30
4.2%
(2,438) $
(18%)
(5,200) $
(18%)
(5,392) $
(18%)
(5,635) $
(18%)
(6,130) $
(19%)
(8,602) $
(25%)
(7,656) $
(22%)
(6,475)
(19%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Washington
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
44,389
306,351
79%
44,759
309,122
79%
44,963
310,714
79%
45,240
312,817
79%
45,512
314,886
79%
45,885
317,674
79%
46,085
319,222
79%
46,396
321,563
79%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
20,220
46%
20,220
45%
20,220
45%
20,220
45%
20,220
44%
20,220
44%
20,220
44%
20,220
44%
34,915 $
11.40
(0.2%)
31,541 $
10.20
(10.5%)
31,617 $
10.18
(0.3%)
29,148 $
9.32
(8.4%)
30,086 $
9.55
2.5%
31,153 $
9.81
2.6%
32,071 $
10.05
2.4%
33,069
10.28
2.4%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$23.75
4.47
0.17
26,856
8.77
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$
28,941
9.36
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$
30,626
9.86
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$
32,448
10.37
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$
33,941
10.78
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$
34,844
10.97
$33.55
5.22
0.19
$
35,814
11.22
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
38,587
12.00
57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.76
57,000 $
4.0871%
2,330 $
0.75
29,186 $
9.53
2.5%
31,270 $
10.12
6.2%
31,791 $
10.23
1.1%
32,448 $
10.37
1.4%
33,941 $
10.78
3.9%
34,844 $
10.97
1.8%
35,814 $
11.22
2.3%
38,587
12.00
7.0%
(5,729) $
(16%)
(271) $
(1%)
174 $
1%
3,300 $
11%
3,856 $
13%
3,691 $
12%
3,743 $
12%
5,518
17%
28,500
4.0871%
1,165
0.37
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Washington
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
46,665
323,596
79%
46,972
325,895
79%
47,032
326,410
79%
47,157
327,388
79%
47,282
328,368
79%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
20,220
43%
20,220
43%
20,220
43%
20,220
43%
20,220
43%
34,150 $
10.55
2.6%
35,312 $
10.84
2.7%
36,269 $
11.11
2.5%
39,209 $
11.98
7.8%
42,322
12.89
7.6%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$
39,950
12.35
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$
41,356
12.69
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$
42,964
13.16
$35.51
7.20
0.22
$
44,377
13.55
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
47,452
14.45
$000
%
$000
/kWh
199,114
18,439
$000
/kWh
%
39,950 $
12.35
2.9%
41,356 $
12.69
2.8%
42,964 $
13.16
3.7%
44,377 $
13.55
3.0%
47,452
14.45
6.6%
217,553
$000
%
5,799 $
17%
6,044 $
17%
6,695 $
18%
5,167 $
13%
5,130
12%
(43,191) $
(17%)
182,642
182,642
381,757
18,439
400,195
22,632 $
14%
(20,559)
(5%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Washington
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
$15.32 Million
$2.33 Million
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Washington
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Washington
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
5% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Wilson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2015
(6 months)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
kW
MWh
%
148,481
652,476
100%
148,368
1,316,356
101%
149,937
1,321,903
101%
150,364
1,331,435
101%
151,406
1,340,048
101%
152,260
1,351,140
101%
153,921
1,353,781
100%
154,012
1,358,585
101%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$40.19
$42.65
$12.10
4.71
$41.43
$43.89
$14.54
4.71
$42.63
$45.09
$16.97
4.71
$43.96
$46.42
$19.41
4.71
$47.93
$50.39
$19.73
4.71
$58.94
$61.40
$19.89
4.71
$57.78
$60.24
$20.73
4.71
$56.01
$58.47
$22.15
4.71
kW
%
87,757
59%
87,757
59%
87,757
59%
87,757
58%
87,757
58%
87,757
58%
87,757
57%
87,757
57%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
$000
%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
57,558
8.82
$19.29
3.27
0.21
39,928
6.12
118,711 $
9.02
2.2%
122,330 $
9.25
2.6%
126,103 $
9.47
2.3%
131,180 $
9.79
3.4%
143,615 $
10.63
8.6%
143,579 $
10.61
(0.2%)
$20.04
3.40
0.18
$20.51
3.61
0.14
$20.80
3.80
0.15
$21.09
3.94
0.15
$21.22
4.00
0.16
$22.02
4.16
0.16
82,714
6.28
86,491
6.54
90,197
6.77
93,204
6.96
94,938
7.03
99,119
7.32
143,096
10.53
(0.7%)
$23.37
4.30
0.16
$
103,846
7.64
28,500 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000 $
57,000
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
$
5,055 $
10,111 $
10,111 $
10,111 $
10,111 $
10,111 $
10,111 $
10,111
0.77
0.77
0.76
0.76
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.74
44,983
6.89
92,825 $
7.05
2.3%
96,602 $
7.31
3.6%
100,308 $
7.53
3.1%
103,315 $
7.71
2.3%
105,049 $
7.77
0.8%
109,230 $
8.07
3.8%
113,957
8.39
4.0%
(12,575) $
(22%)
(25,886) $
(22%)
(25,728) $
(21%)
(25,795) $
(20%)
(27,865) $
(21%)
(38,566) $
(27%)
(34,349) $
(24%)
(29,138)
(20%)
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Wilson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
kW
MWh
%
154,532
1,364,339
101%
154,679
1,369,896
101%
155,312
1,369,768
101%
154,745
1,371,306
101%
154,429
1,373,566
102%
154,245
1,384,331
102%
155,899
1,388,745
102%
155,646
1,396,847
102%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$55.47
$57.93
$22.55
4.71
$36.12
$38.58
$26.25
4.71
$33.72
$36.18
$27.99
4.71
$18.31
$20.77
$31.54
4.72
$17.25
$19.71
$32.96
4.90
$17.79
$20.25
$32.87
5.11
$17.56
$20.02
$32.94
5.36
$9.86
$12.32
$33.03
6.16
kW
%
87,757
57%
87,757
57%
87,757
57%
87,757
57%
87,757
57%
87,757
57%
87,757
56%
87,757
56%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
$000
%
$000
/kWh
$000
/kWh
%
117,415 $
8.61
2.6%
124,079 $
9.06
5.2%
125,188 $
9.14
0.9%
125,379 $
9.14
0.0%
130,279 $
9.48
3.7%
133,465 $
9.64
1.6%
137,857 $
9.93
3.0%
149,074
10.67
7.5%
$000
%
(25,837) $
(18%)
(2,074) $
(2%)
(46) $
(0%)
13,580 $
12%
16,019 $
14%
15,291 $
13%
15,533 $
13%
23,203
18%
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
143,252 $
10.50
(0.3%)
126,152 $
9.21
(12.3%)
125,234 $
9.14
(0.7%)
111,799 $
8.15
(10.8%)
114,260 $
8.32
2.0%
118,174 $
8.54
2.6%
122,324 $
8.81
3.2%
$23.75
4.47
0.17
$27.26
4.46
0.17
$28.90
4.66
0.17
$32.25
4.60
0.18
$33.59
4.77
0.18
$33.50
4.98
0.19
$33.55
5.22
0.19
107,304
7.86
113,968
8.32
120,133
8.77
125,379
9.14
130,279
9.48
133,465
9.64
137,857
9.93
125,872
9.01
2.3%
$33.68
5.97
0.19
$
149,074
10.67
57,000 $
57,000 $
28,500
17.7385%
17.7385%
17.7385%
$
10,111 $
10,111 $
5,055
0.74
0.74
0.37
5%
April 2015
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participant: Wilson
Projected Wholesale Rate Impacts of Sale of NCEMPA Generating Assets
Units
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
kW
MWh
%
154,481
1,403,641
104%
153,116
1,412,215
105%
152,018
1,412,287
106%
150,722
1,415,316
107%
149,436
1,418,351
108%
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
$/kW-mo
/kWh
$9.23
$11.69
$33.70
6.41
$8.54
$11.00
$34.18
6.69
$6.21
$8.67
$34.53
7.10
$12.74
$15.20
$34.92
7.44
$12.12
$14.58
$33.24
8.56
kW
%
87,757
57%
87,757
57%
87,757
58%
87,757
58%
87,757
59%
8
9
Allocated Demand
Allocated Demand Percent of Avg Monthly CP
10
11
12
AR Revenues
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
Percentage Increase (Decrease) over Prior Year
$000
/kWh
%
13
14
15
$/kW-mo
/kWh
/kWh
16
17
FR Revenues
Average FR Charges (Excluding Debt Service)
$000
/kWh
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Comparison
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
129,128 $
9.20
2.1%
132,690 $
9.40
2.1%
135,908 $
9.62
2.4%
147,546 $
10.42
8.3%
$34.30
6.21
0.20
$34.74
6.48
0.20
$35.15
6.87
0.21
$35.51
7.20
0.22
153,559
10.94
158,182
11.20
164,178
11.62
169,201
11.96
161,247
11.37
9.1%
$33.78
8.39
0.22
$
182,754
12.88
$000
%
$000
/kWh
793,743
80,026
873,769
$000
/kWh
%
153,559 $
10.94
2.5%
158,182 $
11.20
2.4%
164,178 $
11.62
3.8%
169,201 $
11.96
2.8%
182,754
12.88
7.8%
$000
%
24,431 $
19%
25,492 $
19%
28,270 $
21%
21,655 $
15%
21,507
13%
(201,181) $
(19%)
701,382
701,382
1,495,125
80,026
1,575,151
94,712 $
16%
(106,469)
(6%)
5%
April 2015
Participant: Wilson
Projected Charges: NCEMPA AR (Before Sale) vs Average FR (After Sale)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2015
Average AR Charges
(Status Quo)
Average FR Charges
(Excl. Defeasance Debt Service)
Average FR Charges
(Incl. Defeasance Debt Service)
2017
2019
2021
$40.33 Million
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Wilson
Comparison of Projected NCEMPA AR vs FR Average Rate
Charges and DEP Wholesale (Competitive Measure)
16
15
14
13
12
Cents/kWh
11
10
9
8
7
6
Average AR Charges (Status Quo)
5
4
3
DEP Wholesale at City Specific Load Factor (without use of QG)*
1
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015
Participant: Wilson
Projected FR Rate (Including Defeasance Debt Service)
Higher/Lower than the NCEMPA AR Charges
30%
Privileged and Confidential
Commercially Sensitive Material
April 2015
20%
% Higher/Lower
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Cumulative Present Value (2015-2035)
-30%
6% Lower Charges
-40%
FR Charges - Higher / (Lower) than AR Charges
-50%
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
April 2015