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TheFragileGainsofSyria'sKurds|Stratfor

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The Fragile Gains of Syria's Kurds

Analysis JULY31,2015|09:15GMT Print TextSize

AKurdishmarksmanstandsontopofabuildingintheSyriantownofKobaniinJanuary2015.(BULENT
KILIC/AFP/GettyImages)(BULENTKILIC/AFP/GettyImages)

Forecast
AsTurkishinvolvementincreasesandIslamicStatelosesground,theKurdswillfindthemselves
increasinglyhedgedinbyhostileforces.
Inthelongterm,thedissolutionofcolonialboundariesandSyriawillmakeitdifficultforanycentralized
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governmentinDamascustocontrolthenortheasternpartofthecountry.
SyriasKurdswillmaintainsomedegreeofautonomybutTurkey'sdirectinvolvementinSyriawillslow
downthemomentumofKurdishforces,leavingthemvulnerable.

Analysis
ThepastthreeyearshavebeenheadytimesforSyria'sKurds.SinceforcesloyaltoSyrianPresidentBashar
alAssadwithdrewfromthenortheastinJuly2012,theKurdshaveenjoyedmoreautonomythanatanyother
timeinrecenthistory.PresidingoverthisautonomousregionistheDemocraticUnionParty(PYD),aKurdish
politicalpartyfoundedinthewakeof2004riotsinthemajorityKurdishcityofQamishli.ThePYD'sprimary
objectiveistoattainKurdishautonomywithinthecontextofademocraticSyriaanditsarmedwing,the
People'sProtectionUnits(YPG),hasprovedcapableonthebattlefield.YPGfightershavemanagednotonly
tofendoffArabattacksonKurdishterritorybuthavealsoscoredvictoriesagainstIslamicStatetargetswith
U.S.support,evenenteringallianceswithsomeoftheFreeSyrianArmymilitiasfightingtheIslamicState.
ButTurkey'srecentdecisiontoalsotargettheKurdistanWorkers'Party(PKK)innorthernIraqand
southeasternTurkeyaspartofitsdirectinterventionagainsttheIslamicStatedoesnotbodewellforthe
KurdspreservingtheirgainsinSyria.TherearefewifanypartiesinterestedinproppingupKurdishautonomy.
ItwillbedifficultfortheKurdstomaintaintheautonomytheyhaveseized,andTurkey'sforaysintotheSyrian
conflictdirectlychallengetherelativeautonomythePYDhasbeenabletoestablishinnortheasternSyria.
WhileTurkeyhasopenlytargetedKurdishforcesinnorthernIraqandsoutheasternTurkey,theprecisenature
ofitsactionsinSyriahavebeenmurky.TurkishnewspaperHurriyetcitedKurdishforceswhoallegedthat
TurkishtanksfiredonYPGfightersintheSyrianvillageofZurMagharonJuly27.TheTurkishForeign
MinistryofficiallydeniedthereportandsaidthatitstargetsetwaslimitedtoPKKmilitantsinnorthernIraqand
IslamicStatepositionsinSyria.TurkishForeignMinisterMevlutCavusoglualsotoldTurkishnewspaper
MilliyetthatU.S.TurkishcooperationwouldmeannothingiftheUnitedStatesweretoprivilegeYPGinterests
overthoseofAnkara.
TurkeyhaslongbeenopenaboutitsdiscomfortwithYPGsuccesses.Since2012,thegrouphasmanagedto
useitsstrategiclocationandwillingnesstofighttheIslamicStatetoitsadvantage.Today,theYPGhas
managedtocarveoutarealmofgeneralselfruleinnorthernSyriaandobtainthesupportoftheUnited
States,whichseekstocontaintheIslamicStatethroughlocalproxies.ButthegeographyoftheKurdish
territoryalsoworksagainstYPGinterests.Itishighlydesirableforsurroundinggroupsandpowers.

The Jazira
SyrianKurdsareconcentratedinthreemainregionsinnorthernSyriaalongtheTurkishborder.Inthe
northwest,theKurdishpopulationlivesintheareaaroundKurdDaghandAfrin.Theyhavealsoinhabitedtwo
partsofUpperMesopotamia,knownasthe"Jazira,"sincetheseventhcentury.Thefirstofthesetwopockets
isaroundthetownofJarabulusatthenorthwestendoftheJazira,whilethesecondisinthenortheastern
cornerofSyriainalHasakagovernorate.

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TheJaziraisalargealluvialplainextendingfromthefoothillsofAnatoliasouthtoMosul.Intheancientworld
thiswasthehomelandoftheAssyrians.UnlikethemoremountainousAfrinregioninthenorthwest,theJazira
isflatandlacksdefensiblenaturalbarriers.Itisthereforedifficultterritorytocontrolandisvulnerabletoattack
fromneighboringgroupsandaspiringempires.UntilWorldWarI,theSyrianportionsoftheJazirawere
sparselypopulated.Kurdishtribeswouldspendwintersontheplains,movingbacktotheAnatolianfoothills
duringthesummergrazingmonths.Bedouintribeswouldthenoccupytheareaduringthesummer,seeking
relieffromtheharshclimateofthedeserttothesouth.Itwasessentiallysharedterritorybetweentwoethnic
groups,asortoftimeshareintheheartoftheMiddleEast.WhiletheKurdistanRegionalGovernmentinIraq
hastakenadvantageofitsmountainousterraintosecureitsautonomy,thesamecannotbesaidoftheKurds
intheJazira.
TheOttomanEmpire'sdefeatinWorldWarIkickedoffchangesthattransformedtheJazira.Astheempire
collapsed,convulsionsacrosstheregionpushedKurds,SunniArabsandvariousChristians,including
ArmeniansandAssyrians,tosettleontheplain.In1931,alHasakagovernorateinthenortheasterncornerof
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theJazirahadonlyapproximately40,000residents.Today,over1.5millioninhabitthearea.Ethnicand
sectarianviolenceaccompaniedthemassiveinfluxofdisparatepeoples.Fordecades,Kurdswerethelargest
oftheplain'sethnicgroupsbuta1975Syriangovernmentpushtocreatean"Arabbelt,"or"alHizamal
Arabi,"ledtothelossofagreatdealofKurdishlandintheJazira.
Asmorepeoplemigratedtothearea,competitionoverresourcesgrew.Therelativeemptinessthroughthe
beginningofthe20thcenturybeliedtheregion'shighleveloffertility.Bythe1960stheregionhadessentially
replacedtheHawranregioninsouthwesternSyriaasthecountry'sbreadbasket.BeforetheSyriancivilwar,
alHasakagovernoratewasresponsibleformorethan20percentofSyria'stotalwheatproduction.In
addition,crudeoilwasdiscoveredinQarachukandRumaylaninthelate1950s.ThoughSyria'soilproduction
beforetheSyriancivilwarwasrelativelymodestcomparedtoothercountriesintheregion,itwasstillenough
toaccountfornearly25percentoftotalstaterevenuebeforefightingtookproductionoffline.Theareaisthen
bothvaluableandindefensibleatreacherouscombinationfortheSyrianKurdsattemptingtoholdit.

Kurdish Gains
InthefirstyearsoftheSyriancivilwar,thePYDwasabletotakeadvantageofthechaostopursueits
interests.Governmentforcespulledbackfromthenorth,unabletoholdareassofarfromtheAlawitecore.
FragmentedSyrianrebelgroups,too,provedunabletooccupytheJaziraasaresultofthedifficultyoffighting
boththealAssadgovernmentandtheIslamicState.TheIslamicStatewasthebiggestthreattotheKurds,
butwithU.S.support,theYPGwereabletonotonlyretakelandsfromtheIslamicStatebutalsopushthe
groupbackfromsomeofitsgains.
ThesuccessoftheYPGwasboostedbecauseTurkeywaspassivelyengagedintheconflict,onlysteppingin
toprovidesupporttoitsfavoredproxygroups.WashingtonclamoredforAnkaratobecomemoreinvolved,but
Turkeyfacedbothdomesticandstrategicchallengesthatmadeithesitanttobecomeinvolvedinanactive,
directmanner.Becauseofthis,thePYDwasabletoestablishasphereofrelativeautonomyinapoliticaland
securityvacuum,andtheUnitedStatessupportedKurdishfightersinnorthernSyriainordertohaveapartner
inaspaceTurkeyrefusedtooccupy.
TurkeyeventacitlyfacilitatedYPGobjectivesfromtimetotime.Ankara,forexample,facilitatedthemovement
ofKurdishreinforcementstoKobani.TheYPGmeanwhileearnedareputationastheregion'smosteffective
antiIslamicStatefightingforce,particularlyintheWesternmedia.GrowingTurkishuneasewithYPGsuccess
droveTurkeytoitsrecentinterventionandspurreditsproposaltocreateabufferzoneinnorthernSyriawith
theassistanceoftheUnitedStates.ThezonewouldexistbetweenKurdishdominatedAfrinandtheJazira.
GroupsbackeddirectlybyaTurkeyhostiletoKurdishinterestswouldoccupythegapinstead.Besides
impingingontheabilityofSyrianKurdstotravelbetweenKurdishareasinSyria,itwouldalsoshiftattention
backtoTurkeyasthemosteffectivefightingforceintheregion.Finally,itwouldenableSyrianrebelgroupsto
focusonattackingloyalistforcesandpushingfortheousterofalAssad,anoutcomebothWashingtonand
Ankarafavor.
AnynegotiatedpoliticalsettlementtoendtheSyriancivilwarwillundoubtedlyincludemeasuresthatensure
thatthefertile,oilrichlandsoftheJaziraremaininthehandsofaDamascusbasedcentralgovernment.The
PYDhasalreadydeclaredanautonomousWesternKurdistan(whichtheKurdscallRojava).Whiletheparty
hassaiditiswillingtosettleforanautonomousregionwithinaSyrianstate,itwouldnotgiveupenough
controltosatisfyanycentralgovernment.
Theprospectofcentralizedruleitselfisdubious,however,evenifitwasbuoyedbyTurkishsupport.Amore
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likelyoutcomewouldbealooseconfederationofdifferentregions,allowingSyria'sKurdstoretainatleast
someoftheautonomytheyhaveachieved.Evenifthisweretobethecase,othergroupswouldstillencroach
onthearea.TheYPGhasenteredintopartnershipswithSunniArabmilitiasfightingtheIslamicState,but
oncetheconflictabates,thosesameSunniArabswilllooktoexertcontrolovernorthwesternSyria.Aloose
confederationthatgrantscoastalautonomytoAlawitesandKurdishautonomyinthefertilenortheast,while
leavingtheremainingterritorytotheSunniArabs,wouldbeunstableatbest.Itwouldonlyfuelfurtherconflict,
leavingtheKurdsvulnerable.Infact,thecurrentturmoilisprobablythemostbeneficialstateforSyrianKurds.
Thelongertheiropponentsaredistracted,thelongertheywillhavetoconsolidatetheirterritorialgains.
TheYPGcandolittletoresistTurkey'sactionsonitsown.ItsbesthopeistoconvincetheUnitedStatesto
leanonTurkeytosoftenitsactivities.Aswasdemonstratedlastweek,however,Turkeywillnothesitateto
targetwhatitseesastheitsKurdishproblem,evenasitcooperateswiththeUnitedStatesagainstIslamic
State.Foritspart,WashingtonwillnotraisemuchobjectionbecauseitconsiderstheTurkishPKKtobea
terroristorganization.TurkeyhascarriedoutairstrikesagainstthePKKsinceJuly24,andthereareno
indicationsthatthepaceofactivityisgoingtodecrease.KurdishforcesinSyriacannotdoanythingtohelpthe
PKKandtheTurkishshellingofaYPGheldvillage,whetheraccidentalornot,underscoreshowlittlerecourse
YPGhastowardTurkishactions.EvenifSyria'sKurdsweretothreatentojoinforceswithalAssad,thiswould
belittlemorethananirritant.Infact,itwouldgiveAnkarathepretexttotargettheYPGasithastargetedthe
PKK.
TheSyrianKurds'onlynaturalalliesnearbyarethecloselyrelatedTurkishKurdsinthePKKwhoalready
havetheirhandsfulldealingwithAnkara'sonslaught.TheIraqiKurdsareanotherpossibility,especiallyin
northernIraqwheretribalandlinguistictiesbetweenSyrianandIraqiKurdsarestrong.ButIraq'sKurdistan
RegionalGovernmenthasitsownreasonsfornotbeingabletobreakwithTurkey:ItreliesonTurkish
pipelinesandportinfrastructuretogetitsoiltomarketandmanyoftheconstructioncompaniesintheregion
areTurkish.Anotherregionalpower,Iran,couldperhapshelptheSyrianKurdishcause.AnIranianmilitary
officialcriticizedtheTurksfortheirattacksagainsttheKurdsfightingtheIslamicState,andanIransecurity
delegationmetseperatelywithKurdishpoliticalpartiesinArbilonJuly29.Butwhatsupport,ifany,the
IranianswouldactuallybeabletogivetheSyrianKurdsislittlemorethanspeculationatthispoint.Thatsaid,
IrandoeshaveahistoryofproppingupsmallethnicgroupsinpositionsofpowerinSyriaandhasconnections
inIraqiKurdistan.TheembattledSyriangovernmentcannotdomuchfortheKurdsofthenorthbutlikely
wouldlookmorefavorablyonKurdishautonomyifsuchanoutcomecreatesmoretroubleforTurkey.
ChaosinSyriahasbeenanunprecedentedopportunityfortheKurds.Thelongeritdragson,thelongerthey
havetoentrenchthemselvesinthelandstheyhaveseized.Syria'ssectariandivisionsandSunniArabrivalries
willmakethereestablishmentofanykindofcentralizedpowerinDamascusdifficult,andthatmakesthe
prospectsofanautonomousWesternKurdistanfeasible.ButTurkey'sentranceintothefraywillmakethis
hardergoingforward.IfTurkeymeanstocommititsresourcestoshapingthefutureofSyriatoitsliking,
SyrianKurdswillnotonlybelandlockedbutwillbesurroundedonallsidesbygroupsactivelyhostiletoits
autonomy.Syria'sKurdswillhavetohopethatitssuccessescaninspireitscomradesacrosstheregion,that
theUnitedStatesandtherestoftheWestwillnotbetraythem,orthatTehranmightfinditinitsintereststo
offerhelp.AsTurkey'sinvolvementinSyriagrows,andastheIslamicStatecontinuestofalteronthe
battlefield,theKurdishpositioninSyriawillgrowweaker.ThePYDmaybeselfadministeringRojava,butits
fateisnotentirelyinitsownhands.
LeadAnalyst:JacobL.Shapiro

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GraphicDesign:MarkBlackwell
ProductionEditor:EvanRees

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