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MEDIA
SEA Games push analog channels
ratings to better ground in June
14 July 2015
Sector: Media Neutral
0.60
ROE
Div
(%) dyield (%)
FY15Y FY15
40.7
4.1
5.4
3.5
19.9
3.9
9.2
0.7
(0.3)
0.0
32.8
2.5
22.8
1.0
(3.8)
0.0
9.5
0.9
15.1
1.8
0.614
0.608
0.556 0.576
0.536
0.50
0.350
0.306 0.298 0.314
0.283
0.40
0.202
0.194
Of all the new digital licensees, LOCA Channel led the MoM TV ratings
growth in June (0.019, up 73% MoM)followed by BECs SD Channel
(0.162, up 60% MoM), GMM25 Channel (0.057, up 30% MoM), BECs
Family Channel (0.080, up 29% MoM) and New TV (up 28% MoM).
Other digital-only operators under our coverage that posted MoM rises
were RS (0.350, up 11% MoM) and MONO (0.284, up 12% MoM).
Ratings of WORK and ONE Channel slipped only marginallyWORK
(0.608, down 1% MoM) and ONE Channel (0.194, down 1% MoM).
Despite the SEA Games live broadcasts in June, the overall ratings of
digital channels remained solid and some channels whose content
targets the mass market were negligibly affected.
Regained ratings of WORK and ONE Channel in July
BEC has been showing reruns of Korean and Chinese series and
super-prime Thai soap operas on its SD Channel, while its Family
Channel has aired new cartoon content from Boomerang. It would take
at least six months to prove that the ratings rises at BECs digital
channels are sustainable. We expect WORKs digital rating to rise in
July with the migration of Ching Roi Ching Lan from BEC to its digital
channel (more-or-less the same rating and ad rateBt300k/minas
when it was broadcast on BECs analog channel). GMM25 Channels
rating has jumped since the launch of teenage soap operas series in
the May-June period. We expect new soap operas and series to boost
ratings of ONE and GMM25 Channels in July.
See disclaimer at the end of report
Prasit Sujiravorakul
Securities Fundamental Investment Analyst
prasit@bualuang.co.th
+66 2 618 1342
Jun-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
0.119
Apr-15
0.10 0.169
0.031
-
0.2250.195
0.178
May-15
0.128
Mar-15
0.20
Feb-15
0.30
Apr-14
2-yr
PER EPS CAGR PBV
(x) FY14-16 (x)
FY15
(%)
FY15
22.4 (10.7)
9.3
21.6
(7.7)
1.2
22.1
+15.2
4.3
68.6 +177.6
5.1
n.m.
n.m.
2.9
35.1
+1.5
7.6
51.8
+43.6
7.7
n.m.
+86.0
2.5
66.3
(4.3)
6.0
41.1
37.7
5.2
Channel 8 (RS)
Workpoint TV (WORK)
GMM channel (GRAMMY SD)
ONE (GRAMMY HD)
MONO29 (MONO)
0.70
May-14
Jul-14
Nielsens June figures revealed that although the ratings of most analog
channels bounced strongly MoM from SEA Games live broadcasts, those
of most digital TV channels remained intact or saw a negligible impact from
ad migration to the analog channels. In June, ratings of GMM25, RS and
MONO rose MoM while those of WORK and ONE Channel dropped
marginally MoM. We treat the bounce of analog ratings in June as a onetime event and expect those of digital channels to pick up their pace in July,
underpinned by new content. We expect ratings of WORKs and
GRAMMYs two digital channels to regain strength in July. WORK and RS
are our best picks for the 6-9 month investment horizon while GRAMMY is
the best pick for the more-than-12-month investment horizon.
Target
price
Rec.
(Bt)
BEC
SELL 33.00
MCOT
SELL 10.50
MAJOR
BUY 36.00
WORK
BUY 50.50
GRAMMY BUY 22.40
VGI
HOLD 5.20
PLANB
BUY
6.10
MONO
BUY
4.25
RS
BUY 16.00
Simple avg
Aug-14
Investment thesis
2.586 2.666
2.660
2.576
2.342 2.207
0.032
0.033
0.038
0.080 0.020
1.851 1.816
1.981
2.151
Channel 3 - 3Family
0.024
0.016
0.020
Channel 3 - 3SD
0.015
0.015
0.018
8.58%
0.023 0.019
0.034 0.043
0.062
0.080 29.03%
0.019 0.020
0.050 0.072
0.101
0.162 60.40%
Channel 5 - public
0.316 0.470
0.315
0.284
0.338 0.303
0.125 0.127
0.125
0.167 33.60%
Channel 7 - analog+HD
3.061 3.003
3.320
3.394
3.246 3.462
2.960 2.889
2.652
2.604
0.449 0.488
0.456
0.461
0.529 0.430
0.225 0.207
0.236
0.295 25.00%
0.020
0.008
0.009
0.008 0.006
0.015 0.025
0.033
0.035
-1.81%
Channel 9
Channel 9 - analog+HD
Channel 9 - MCOT Family SD
6.06%
NBT - public
0.122 0.111
0.100
0.101
0.230 0.138
0.059 0.053
0.047
0.090 91.49%
TPBS - public
0.237 0.249
0.219
0.219
0.237 0.219
0.123 0.123
0.121
0.113
0.169
0.163 0.461
0.321
0.288
0.240 0.248
0.306 0.298
0.314
0.350 11.46%
0.202
0.189 0.226
0.256
0.301
0.342 0.333
0.556 0.576
0.614
0.608
-0.98%
0.031
0.040 0.038
0.044
0.026
0.026 0.044
0.178 0.225
0.195
0.194
-0.51%
0.003
0.009
0.022
0.019 0.011
0.039 0.034
0.044
0.057 29.55%
-6.61%
Others
0.021 0.043
0.065
0.096
0.113 0.114
0.240 0.256
0.253
0.284 12.25%
AMARIN TV - digital
0.006
0.009
0.013
0.012 0.014
0.041 0.042
0.045
0.053 17.78%
Now TV - digital
0.008
0.008
0.006
0.008 0.008
0.013 0.015
0.020
0.020
0.074 0.081
0.071
0.083
0.086 0.074
0.146 0.102
0.129
0.147 13.95%
0.015 0.016
0.020
0.024
0.028 0.022
0.066 0.063
0.061
0.068 11.48%
0.071
0.067
0.084
0.088 0.079
0.079 0.082
0.083
Thairath TV - digital
PPTV - digital
0.012
True4U - digital
0.00%
0.082
-1.20%
Nation TV - digital
0.031
0.059 0.071
0.060
0.044
0.046 0.037
0.044 0.050
0.051
0.048
-5.88%
0.014
0.029 0.026
0.016
0.017
0.019 0.017
0.026 0.030
0.037
0.039
5.41%
TNN24 - digital
0.035
0.051 0.047
0.041
0.038
0.036 0.028
0.046 0.046
0.048
0.051
6.25%
0.009
0.011 0.008
0.012 0.014
0.015
0.015
0.00%
0.053
0.023
0.022 0.020
0.043 0.039
0.040
0.051 27.50%
0.032 0.021
0.024
0.027
0.032 0.029
0.042 0.044
0.046
0.050
8.70%
0.005 0.013
0.009
0.010
0.008 0.007
0.019 0.023
0.024
0.023
-4.17%
0.010 0.010
0.007
0.008
0.007 0.007
0.011 0.012
0.011
0.019 72.73%
Voice TV - digital
NEW TV - digital
THAI TV - digital
0.018
BRIGHT TV - digital
LOCA - digital
0.007
Media - 2
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 92.7% 90.8% 85.8% 86.5% 86.0% 85.1% 85.9% 84.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.3%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Audience share
(including analog and digital channels)
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 % MoM
35.07% 35.53% 37.73% 37.58% 34.68% 32.45% 32.37% 31.26% 28.57% 27.85% 27.46% 26.87% 26.64% 26.25% 25.19% 24.85% 26.81% 27.39% 0.58%
Channel 3 - 3Family
Channel 3 - 3SD
35.07% 35.53% 37.73% 37.58% 34.68% 32.94% 32.74% 31.71% 29.08% 28.34% 27.98% 27.54% 27.46% 27.27% 26.33% 26.42% 29.02% 30.48% 1.46%
5.90% 5.45% 5.04% 4.67% 4.24% 5.72% 3.83% 3.45% 4.13% 3.83% 3.77%
45.32% 45.70% 44.80% 38.62% 41.05% 36.55% 40.38% 41.20% 39.60% 43.68% 44.49% 44.15% 39.53% 40.57% 40.29% 39.54% 35.90% 33.17% -2.73%
7.42% 7.21% 7.83% 7.06% 6.02% 5.94% 5.54% 5.60% 6.46% 5.42% 5.07%
7.42% 7.21% 7.83% 7.06% 6.02% 6.19% 5.63% 5.71% 6.56% 5.50% 5.17%
NBT - public
2.26% 2.28% 1.73% 1.79% 1.64% 1.35% 1.21% 1.22% 2.81% 1.74% 1.00%
TPBS - public
4.04% 3.84% 2.87% 3.01% 3.18% 3.03% 2.66% 2.66% 2.89% 2.76% 2.42%
Workpoint TV - digital
AMARIN TV - digital
Others
Now TV - digital
Thairath TV - digital
ONE - digital
PPTV - digital
True4U - digital
Nation TV - digital
TNN24 - digital
Voice TV - digital
NEW TV - digital
THAI TV - digital
BRIGHT TV - digital
LOCA - digital
MONO 29 - digital
Total audience share for others
7.28% 9.20% 13.85% 13.16% 13.61% 13.92% 13.88% 15.17% 16.94% 23.57% 24.36% 25.92% 26.70% 27.50% 27.46%
Media - 3
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 % MoM
Channel 3 - HD+analog (+HD starting Nov) 33.10% 33.20% 32.11% 31.38% 30.31% 28.94% 29.16% 28.98% 24.68% 24.25% 23.35% 23.17% 22.70% 21.84% 20.89% 21.22% 20.79% 20.49% -0.30%
Channel 3 - 3Family
0.46% 0.60% 0.78% 1.09% 1.15% 1.13% 0.86% 0.99% 0.80% 0.57% 0.48% 0.54% 0.54% 0.00%
Channel 3 - 3SD
0.64% 0.76% 0.94% 1.27% 1.21% 1.11% 0.87% 1.05% 1.40% 1.26% 1.28% 1.26% 1.11% -0.15%
33.10% 33.20% 32.11% 31.38% 30.31% 30.04% 30.52% 30.70% 27.04% 26.61% 25.59% 24.90% 24.74% 24.04% 22.72% 22.98% 22.59% 22.14% -0.45%
Channel 5 - public
18.94% 17.24% 16.19% 15.85% 15.42% 16.24% 14.22% 12.63% 10.71% 10.64% 10.71% 10.49% 9.72% 8.45% 7.34% 6.84% 6.40% 6.50% 0.10%
Channel 7 - analog+HD
28.14% 30.33% 30.84% 27.84% 28.13% 29.25% 27.94% 27.28% 23.40% 22.13% 23.28% 21.57% 19.98% 21.44% 22.46% 22.25% 21.48% 20.52% -0.96%
Channel 9 - analog+HD
17.05% 17.34% 19.02% 18.38% 17.89% 14.93% 13.48% 13.09% 11.88% 10.53% 10.44% 9.18% 8.32% 7.88% 10.13% 9.03% 8.95% 9.49% 0.54%
0.95% 0.54% 0.45% 0.59% 0.49% 0.72% 0.54% 0.33% 0.34% 0.41% 0.47% 0.37% -0.10%
17.05% 17.34% 19.02% 18.38% 17.89% 14.93% 14.43% 13.63% 12.33% 11.12% 10.93% 9.90% 8.86% 8.21% 10.47% 9.44% 9.42% 9.86% 0.44%
NBT - public
2.78% 1.89% 1.85% 2.08% 2.28% 2.16% 2.42% 2.16% 2.40% 2.20% 1.92% 1.68% 2.14% 1.88% 1.70% 1.63% 1.73% 2.08% 0.35%
TPBS - public
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Others
RS's Channel 8 - digital
1.69% 1.70% 1.52% 1.66% 1.69% 2.03% 2.09% 2.09% 1.78% 0.74% 0.88% 0.99% 0.89% 0.72% 0.81% 0.09%
Workpoint TV - digital
0.85% 0.92% 0.91% 0.86% 0.83% 3.56% 3.58% 3.46% 3.55% 10.67% 11.56% 10.69% 11.46% 11.81% 11.75% -0.06%
0.91% 0.81% 0.71% 0.88% 0.97% 0.87% 1.30% 1.21% 1.28% 0.07%
1.96% 2.23% 1.74% 1.31% 1.80% 1.19% 1.44% 1.24% 1.28% 0.90% 1.14% 1.48% 1.37% -0.11%
1.34% 1.32% 1.81% 1.73% 1.56% 1.34% 1.41% 1.38% 1.35% -0.03%
1.41% 1.65% 1.54% 1.72% 3.08% 1.91% 2.18% 2.50% 2.95% 2.80% 3.00% 0.20%
0.23% 0.27% 0.18% 0.25% 0.24% 1.10% 1.11% 1.37% 1.73% 1.58% 1.63% 1.92% 1.70% 1.88% 2.14% 0.26%
1.15% 0.55% 0.58% 1.09% 1.66% 1.51% 2.13% 2.10% 1.96% 2.58% 2.95% 3.08% 0.13%
1.45% 0.72% 1.23% 1.81% 1.77% 1.62% 1.74% 2.43% 2.01% 2.16% 1.82% 1.83% 2.22% 2.48% 0.26%
0.83% 0.87% 0.85% 0.94% 2.23% 2.09% 2.01% 2.08% 2.14% 1.90% 1.44% 1.76% 1.54% 1.43% 1.46% 0.03%
0.51% 0.42% 0.34% 0.50% 0.45% 1.20% 1.25% 1.22% 1.31% 1.43% 1.23% 1.06% 1.15% 1.11% 1.05% -0.06%
TNN24 - digital
0.37% 0.34% 0.33% 0.27% 0.29% 1.45% 1.65% 1.47% 1.86% 1.61% 1.53% 1.18% 1.13% 1.40% 1.40% 0.00%
Voice TV - digital
0.65% 0.67% 1.13% 1.47% 1.62% 1.10% 1.19% 1.15% 1.29% 1.20% 1.23% 0.03%
NEW TV - digital
0.17% 0.21% 0.42% 0.52% 0.72% 0.48% 0.95% 1.15% 1.00% 1.09% 0.99% -0.10%
THAI TV - digital
BRIGHT TV - digital
LOCA - digital
MONO 29 - digital
Total ad spend share for others
1.69% 1.45% 1.08% 1.28% 1.43% 1.22% 1.40% 1.05% 1.07% 0.89% -0.18%
0.53% 1.23% 1.23% 1.19% 1.33% 1.54% 1.53% 1.42% 1.22% 1.01% 1.02% 1.04% 1.18% 0.14%
0.81% 0.58% 0.49% 0.66% 0.74% 0.58% 1.00% 0.78% 0.73% 0.79% 0.06%
1.84% 2.06% 2.34% 2.31% 1.55% 2.31% 2.59% 2.66% 2.83% 2.65% -0.18%
4.48% 5.97% 7.34% 10.32% 13.29% 23.15% 26.96% 27.57% 31.47% 34.55% 35.99% 35.29% 36.88% 38.35% 38.90%
Media - 4
Regional comparisons
Bloomberg
Abs-Cbn Corp
Gma Network Inc
Sun Tv Network Ltd
Zee Entertainment Enterprise
Television Broadcasts Ltd
Phoenix Satellite Television
Nippon Television Network
Tokyo Broadcasting System
Tv Asahi Corp
Beijing Gehua Catv Network-A
BEC World
GMM Grammy
Major Cineplex Group
MCOT
Plan B Media
RS
VGI Global Media
Workpoint Entertainment
Simple average
Code
(local curr.)
ABS PM
GMA7 PM
SUNTV IN
Z IN
511 HK
2008 HK
9404 JP
9401 JP
9409 JP
600037 CH
BEC TB
GRAMMY TB
MAJOR TB
MCOT TB
PLANB TB
RS TB
VGI TB
WORK TB
PHP61.0
PHP6.4
INR277.7
INR373.8
HKD42.5
HKD2.3
JPY2,201.0
JPY1,768.0
JPY1,930.0
CNY25.8
THB37.00
THB12.60
THB32.25
THB12.60
THB6.10
THB10.80
THB4.98
THB39.00
PER (x)
(US$
equivalent) 2015E 2016E
1,149
472
1,725
5,659
2,401
1,510
4,707
2,729
1,698
4,848
2,174
304
845
254
626
319
1,004
478
19.3
24.9
12.3
36.9
12.0
21.3
16.3
29.1
19.9
34.2
22.4
n.m.
22.1
21.6
53.2
66.3
35.1
73.6
30.6
13.5
16.3
10.4
28.8
11.5
16.7
14.8
26.5
18.6
24.9
21.0
24.3
19.9
20.2
37.3
31.2
24.7
64.7
23.6
PBV (x)
ROE (%)
1.9
n.a.
3.0
6.3
2.1
2.1
1.0
0.7
0.7
3.9
9.3
2.9
4.3
1.2
7.7
6.0
7.6
5.1
3.9
1.7
n.a.
2.7
5.5
2.0
1.9
0.9
0.7
0.7
3.4
8.6
2.6
4.1
1.1
6.9
5.5
4.6
4.5
3.4
9.7
15.1
25.1
20.0
18.3
10.5
5.9
2.4
3.3
11.7
40.7
-0.3
19.9
5.4
22.8
9.5
32.8
9.2
14.5
12.6
21.5
26.7
21.7
17.7
12.0
6.2
2.6
3.6
13.8
45.0
12.7
21.1
5.7
19.6
18.9
23.1
7.6
16.2
1.3
4.3
4.6
0.8
6.0
2.2
1.5
1.0
2.0
1.1
4.1
0.0
3.9
3.5
1.0
0.9
2.5
0.7
2.3
1.7
2.5
5.3
1.0
6.4
2.0
1.6
1.1
2.1
1.4
4.4
0.0
4.3
3.7
1.3
1.9
3.6
0.8
2.5
Media - 5
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Lead underwriter/
Underwriter/
Co-underwriter
Financial Advisor
BR
Score Range
Score Range
Description
90 100
Excellent
80 89
Very Good
70 79
Good
60 69
Satisfactory
50 59
Below 50
Pass
No logo given
N/A
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BUALUANG RESEARCH RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12
months.
SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next
3 months.
Media - 6