MASON-DIXON FLORIDA POLL

JULY 2015
BUSH TOP CHOICE OF STATE GOP VOTERS
RUBIO DROPS, WALKER RUNS 3RD -- AHEAD OF TRUMP
CLINTON HAS WIDE LEAD AMONG DEMOCRATS
ANALYSIS
By: J. Bradford Coker, Managing Director
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
2015, All Rights Reserved

After falling slightly behind Marco Rubio immediately following his fellow
Floridians official announcement, Jeb Bush has separated himself from the
growing pack of Republican presidential candidates in the Sunshine State.
Statewide, 28% of Republicans said they would vote for Bush if the Florida
primary were held today, Rubio is 12-points behind in second with 16%, Scott
Walker has moved into third place with an impressive with 13% and the center
of the GOP political universe of late -- Donald Trump -- is in fourth with 11%.
The remaining twelve candidates are all in single-digits and 13% are undecided.

This is the first Florida poll taken entirely since Trumps remarks regarding John
McCains Vietnam War service. His 11% showing in Florida is far below his
support in recent national polls. This could be the result of the home state
advantage of both Bush and Rubio.
However, the fact that Walker has slipped ahead of him may be a stronger sign
that his candidacy is fading. Furthermore, there is a clear ceiling that Trump has
among Florida Republicans. When asked if they are considering a vote for
Trump, a large majority (58%) said they were not. Only 27% gave an indication
that Trump was under their serious consideration.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is still far ahead of the primary field.
Statewide, 58% support Clinton, while 17% back Bernie Sanders, Martin
OMalley gets just 2%, Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb registered no support and
23% are undecided.

*** 500 REGISTERED REPUBLICAN VOTERS ****

QUESTION: If the Republican presidential primary election in Florida were

held today, and the choice was among the following list of candidates,
which one would get your vote? (ORDER ROTATED)
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Scott Walker
Donald Trump
Mike Huckabee
Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
John Kasich
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Bobby Jindal
Rick Santorum
Rick Perry
Chris Christie
Lindsey Graham
George Pataki
Undecided (NOT READ)

28%
16%
13%
11%
5%
4%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
13%

QUESTION: Are you considering voting for Donald Trump, or not?

YES
NO
NOT SURE

27%
58%
15%

*** 500 REGISTERED DEMOCRATIC VOTERS ****

QUESTION: If the Democratic presidential primary election in Florida were

held today, and the choice was among the following list of candidates,
which one would get your vote? (ORDER ROTATED)
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin OMalley
Lincoln Chafee
Jim Webb
Undecided (NOT READ)

58%
17%
2%
23%

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Mason-Dixon Florida Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling &
Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from July 20 through July 23, 2015. For this
section of the poll 500 registered Republican voters and 500 registered
Democratic voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed on land-lines were selected by the random variation of the
last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized
in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Those interviewed on cell
phones were selected from a list of working cell phone numbers. Quotas were
assigned to reflect party registration by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is
no more than 4.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent
probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all party voters
were surveyed.