172 Chapter 12.

Stochastic Programs, Probability, and Statistics

This is an example of exponential decay. In practice, exponential decay is often

talked about in terms of half-life, i.e., the expected time required for the initial
value to decay by 50%. One can also talk about the half-life of a single item. For
example, the half-life of a single radioactive atom is the time at which the
probability of that atom having decayed is 0.5. Notice that as time increases the
number of remaining molecules approaches zero. But it will never quite get
there. This should not be interpreted as suggesting that a fraction of a molecule
remains. Rather it should be interpreted as saying that since the system is
probabilistic, one can never guarantee that all of the molecules have been
cleared.
What happens if we make the y-axis logarithmic (by using pylab.semilogy)? We
get the plot above and on the right. The values on the y-axis are changing
exponentially quickly relative to the values on the x-axis. If we make the y-axis
itself change exponentially quickly, we get a straight line. The slope of that line
is the rate of decay.

Exponential growth is the inverse of exponential decay. It too is quite

commonly seen in nature. Compound interest, the growth of algae in a
swimming pool, and the chain reaction in an atomic bomb are all examples of
exponential growth.

Exponential distributions can easily be generated by calling random.expovariate.

The geometric distribution is the discrete analog of the exponential
distribution.72 It is usually thought of as describing the number of independent
attempts required to achieve a first success (or a first failure). Imagine, for
example, that you have a crummy car
that starts only half of the time you
turn the key. A geometric distribution
could be used to characterize the
expected number of times you would
have to attempt to start the car before
being successful. This is illustrated by
the histogram on the right, which was
produced by the code in Figure 12.12.
The histogram implies that most of the
time you’ll get the car going within a few
attempts. On the other hand, the long
tail suggests that on occasion you may run the risk of draining your battery
before the car gets going.

72 The name “geometric distribution” arises from its similarity to a “geometric

progression.” A geometric progression is any sequence of numbers in which each

number other than the first is derived by multiplying the previous number by a constant
nonzero number. Euclid’s Elements proves a number of interesting theorems about
geometric progressions.