Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Iran Politics.....................................................................................................................1
INC Shell.......................................................................................................................2
Uniqueness Deal Happening Now/Obama stalling Congress......................................................4
Uniqueness Deal Happening Now/Obama stalling Congress......................................................5
Uniqueness Deal Happening Now/Obama stalling Congress......................................................6
Uniqueness Deal Happening Now/Obama stalling Congress......................................................7
2NC Impact Extension.....................................................................................................8
2NC Israel Strike Impact Scenario......................................................................................9
2NC Terrorism Impact Scenario.......................................................................................11
2NC Link Extension.....................................................................................................12
2NC Link/Solvency Roll-back card...................................................................................13
PC Key to stop Sanctions..................................................................................................14
AT: Sanctions wont kill talks............................................................................................16
AT: Sanctions Inevitable...................................................................................................17
AT: Iran not serious/will kill deal........................................................................................18
AT: Right to Enrich will kill deal........................................................................................19
AT: Negotiations Fail.......................................................................................................20
AT: Agenda Overload......................................................................................................21
AT: Sanctions lifting Bad will give Iran too much $$.............................................................22
AFF Non Unique Sanctions will increase now.................................................................23
AFF Obama no PC.......................................................................................................24
AFF Obama no PC.......................................................................................................25
AFF Turn Removing sanctions = Iran econ boost...............................................................26
AFF Sanctions will not happen until after talks anyway..........................................................27
INC Shell
1). Talks will succeed now only looming impediment is congressional sanctions Obama is using
all his PC to thwart new sanctions and it is working. Talks solve Iran prolif.
Reuters, 11/16/13 ('Quite possible' Iran, powers can reach nuclear deal next week: U.S. official; By
Lesley Wroughton; Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:21am EST; http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/16/us-irannuclear-usa-idUSBRE9AF00I20131116)
(Reuters) - Major powers and Iran are getting closer to an initial agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program, a senior U.S.
official said on Friday, adding it is "quite possible" a deal could be reached when negotiators meet November 20-22 in Geneva.
"For the first time in nearly a decade we are getting close to a first-step ... that would stop the Iranian nuclear program from
advancing and roll it back in key areas," the official told reporters.
"I don't know if we will reach an agreement. I think it is quite possible that we can, but there are still tough issues to negotiate,"
said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The official said EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif were to meet on
November 20 in Geneva. They will be joined later the same day by a wider group known as the P5+1 comprising Britain,
China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. The talks are likely to last through November 22, the official added.
The talks will seek to finalize an interim deal to allow time to negotiate a comprehensive, permanent agreement with Iran that
would end a 10-year deadlock and provide assurances to the six powers that its atomic program would not produce bombs.
Iran has denied that it is seeking the capability to produce atomic weapons and insists its nuclear ambitions are limited to the
peaceful generation of electricity and other civilian uses.
Negotiations last week in Geneva ended without an agreement, although the sides appeared to be close to a deal that would
defuse their standoff over the nuclear program.
U.S. President Barack Obama has urged skeptical U.S. lawmakers not to impose new sanctions on Iran while negotiations are
ongoing and called for a pause in U.S. sanctions to see if diplomacy can work.
ALIGNED WITH WHITE HOUSE APPROACH
In addition to lobbying lawmakers, the White House this week also reached out to progressive groups supportive of diplomacy
with Iran to make sure they stay aligned with the Obama administration's approach, according to a source close to the matter.
Senior administration officials told supporters that they are guardedly optimistic about reaching an interim deal with Iran in
Geneva and that the P5+1, including the French, are ready to present a unified position there, the source said.
The senior U.S. official who met with reporters Friday said that published estimates of direct sanctions relief being offered
under a preliminary deal - which have ranged from $15 billion to $50 billion - were "wildly exaggerated."
"It is way south of all of that and quite frankly it will be dwarfed by the restrictions that are still in place," the official said,
saying to impose further sanctions threatened the negotiations not only with Iran but also among the six major powers.
"The P5+1 believes these are serious negotiations. They have a chance to be successful," the official said. "For us to slap on
sanctions in the middle of it, they see as bad faith."
sanctions on Iran could push the US on a " march to war " and
derail a diplomatic push to limit Tehran's nuclear programme. "The American people do not want a march to war," White House
spokesman Jay Carney said on Tuesday. The US, Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran and Russia will send top nuclear
negotiators to Geneva next week to see whether they can push for a transparent nuclear programme in Iran. "This is a
decision to support diplomacy and a possible peaceful resolution to this issue," Carney said. Iran maintains that its uranium
enrichment is for energy production and medical research, not for any covert military objective. But until the recent election of President Hassan Rouhani, it
refused to compromise in talks with world powers. Carney said Americans "justifiably and understandably prefer a peaceful solution that
prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon , and this agreement, if it's achieved, has the potential to do that".
Responding to Rouhani's promise of flexibility, President Barack Obama
chat with Rouhani in September was the first direct conversation between US and Iranian leaders in more than three decades. The unprecedented outreach has
angered US allies like Israel. "The alternative is military action," Carney said. "It is important to understand that if pursuing a
resolution diplomatically is disallowed or ruled out, what options then do we and our allies have to prevent Iran
from acquiring a nuclear weapon?" Carney said. "The American people should not be forced to choose between military action and a bad deal
that accepts a nuclear Iran," he said. US Secretary of State John Kerry will take the administration's position directly to the Senate Banking Committee, which
is mulling a new sanctions package against Iran. "The secretary will be clear that putting new sanctions in place would be a mistake," State
Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said. "What
we are asking for right now is a pause, a temporary pause in sanctions," she told
reporters. "We are not rolling them back." A House committee, meanwhile, held a hearing to vent its frustration with Kerry and an Obama administration, who
they believe should adopt a far tougher line with Tehran. The Republican-led House of Representatives has already passed a bill to harden up the sanctions, but
the Senate agreed to delay further action to allow diplomacy a chance to succeed.
half
as many
supporters as a letter earlier this year calling on the Obama administration to increase diplomatic overtures
towards Tehran. House Homeland Security Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) spearheaded the more recent letter, which urges the
Senates leaders to take up a package of new sanctions against Iran that passed the House earlier this year. The possibility of tighter sanctions will enhance our
leverage in the nuclear standoff between the Irans Supreme Leader and the international community, the letter argues. We should ensure that tougher
penalties will be available should Tehran be found to be using the negotiations as a stalling tactic. McCauls letter is heralded as bipartisan on the site of Rep.
Grace Meng (D-NY), with 53 Republicans and 10 Democrats having signed onto the document. However, the letters 63 signatories dont
match up with a message to President Obama earlier this year pressing for an increase in diplomacy with Iran
while warning of taking actions that might throw any talks off. That effort bore the signatures of 128 members of the body, more
than a quarter of the Houses total membership , including 16 Republicans. Reps. Charles Dent (R-PA) and David Price (DNC) sponsored the letter in July, shortly before Iranian president Hassan Rouhani was inaugurated, urging Obama to pursue the potential opportunity
presented by reinvigorating U.S. efforts to secure a negotiated nuclear agreement. We must also be careful not to preempt this potential opportunity by
engaging in actions that delegitimize the newly elected president and weaken his standing relative to hardliners within the regime who oppose his professed
policy of reconciliation and peace, the letter cautioned. The more recent letter also appears to have been written prior to the latest International Atomic
Energy Association report on Irans program becoming public. While recent assessments of the progress of Irans nuclear program vary what is clear is that
time is running short, the letter says. In contrast, the IAEA said in their November quarterly report that since Rouhani took office, progress on Irans nuclear
efforts has come to a virtual stand-still. Members of the P5+1 group composed of the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China
are currently preparing for the next round of negotiations with Iran in Geneva on Nov. 20. Senate
come out against new sanctions while the talks are ongoing, even as Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) mulls bringing the
Houses legislation up before his Senate Banking Committee. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), chair of the powerful
Senate Intelligence Committee, on Friday became the latest senator to do so. The purpose of sanctions was to bring Iran to the negotiating table,
and they have succeeded in doing so, Feinstein wrote in a statement. Tacking new sanctions onto the defense authorization bill or any other
legislation would not lead to a better deal. It would lead to no deal at all . The White House has been pressing
the Senate to hold off on new sanctions while the negotiations continue, ramping up their rhetoric
over the
course of the week. On Wednesday, White House press secretary Jay Carney warned that new legislation could put America on the march to war. Speaking at
a press appearance on Thursday, President Obama likewise
this time.
made clear
that he
Global nuclear war in a month if talks fail US sanctions will wreck diplomacy.
Press TV 11/13 Global nuclear conflict between US, Russia, China likely if Iran talks fail,
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/11/13/334544/global-nuclear-war-likely-if-iran-talks-fail/
A global conflict between the US, Russia, and China is likely in the coming months should the world
powers fail to reach a nuclear deal with Iran , an American analyst says. If the talks fail, if the agreements being pursued are not
successfully carried forward and implemented, then there would be enormous international pressure to drive towards a
conflict with Iran before [US President Barack] Obama leaves office and thats a very great danger that no one can
underestimate the importance of, senior editor at the Executive Intelligence Review Jeff Steinberg told Press TV on Wednesday. The
United States could find itself on one side and Russia and China on the other and those are the kinds of conditions
that can lead to miscalculation and general roar, Steinberg said. So the danger in this situation is that if these talks dont go
forward, we could be facing a global conflict in the coming months
costs when youve got countries like the United States, Russia, and China with their arsenals of nuclear weapons , he
warned. The warning came one day after the White House told Congress not to impose new sanctions against
Tehran because failure in talks with Iran could lead to war . White House press secretary Jay Carney called on
Congress to allow more time for diplomacy as US lawmakers are considering tougher sanctions . "This is a
decision to support diplomacy and a possible peaceful resolution to this issue," Carney said. "The American people do not want a march to war."
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State John Kerry is set to meet with the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday to hold off on more sanctions on the Iranian
economy. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Kerry "will be clear that putting new sanctions in place would be a
mistake." "While we are still determining if there is a diplomatic path forward, what we are asking for right now is a
pause, a temporary pause in sanctions. We are not taking away sanctions. We are not rolling them back," Psaki added.
called for more economic sanctions on Iran, even as its new government under President Hassan Rouhani signals a desire for a diplomatic
settlement that would include new limits and more supervision on its nuclear program. Torpedoing the talks by enacting more
sanctions would
likely
increase the prospects of a n eventual U.S.- Israel air assault on Irans nuclear facilities,
move that Netanyahu has advocated in the past. Even if we get this de minimus interim deal [with Iran], we could be in serious trouble, said Mark
Dubowitz, executive director of the neocon Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The Israelis and the Saudis are already freaking out about the dangers of
any interim deal. This would demonstrate to them and Congress that the Obama administration has entered the Persian nuclear bazaar and gotten totally
outnegotiated. Similarly, Israeli and Saudi hardliners are furious with Obama for scrapping a planned military strike against Syria last August in favor of
having the Syrian government give up its chemical weapons in response to a U.S.-Russian initiative. Obama also was chafing under the rough-riding style of
Netanyahu, who has frequently brought his whip down on Obama, scolding him in the Oval Office, going over Obamas head to Congress and the U.S. news
media, and essentially endorsing Republican Mitt Romney for president in 2012. Netanyahu also has sought to corner Obama into military conflicts with Iran
and Syria, challenging the Presidents goal of rebalancing U.S. geopolitical interests away from the Middle East. Now the stakes have been
raised. Either Obamas regional strategy of diplomacy will prevail with the support of Russian President Putin or Netanyahu
and Bandar will manage to rally their supporters, especially in U.S. political and media circles, to push the region
deeper into conflict.
the locations of some of Irans nuclear facilities are not fully known and known facilities are buried deep
underground. All of these widely spread facilities are shielded by elaborate air defense systems constructed not only by the Iranians but also the
Chinese and, likely, the Russians as well. By now, Iran has also built redundant command and control systems and nuclear
facilities, developed early warning systems, acquired ballistic and cruise missiles and upgraded and enlarged its armed forces. Because Iran is wellprepared, a single, conventional Israeli strikeor even numerous strikescould not destroy all of its capabilities, giving Iran time to
respond. Unlike Iraq, whose nuclear program Israel destroyed in 1981, Iran has a second-strike capability comprised of a coalition of Iranian,
Syrian, Lebanese, Hezbollah, Hamas, and, perhaps, Turkish forces. Internal pressure might compel Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority to join the
assault, turning a bad situation into a regional war. During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, at the apex of its power, Israel was saved from defeat by President
Nixons shipment of weapons and planes. Today, Israels numerical inferiority is greater, and it faces more determined and better-equipped opponents. After
years of futilely fighting Palestinian irregular armies, Israel has lost some of its perceived superioritybolstering its enemies resolve. Despite Israels touted
defense systems, Iranian coalition missiles, armed forces, and terrorist attacks would likely wreak havoc on its enemy, leading to a prolonged tit-for-tat. In the
absence of massive U.S. assistance, Israels military resources may quickly dwindle, forcing it to use its alleged nuclear
weapons, as it had reportedly almost done in 1973. An Israeli nuclear attack would likely destroy most of Irans capabilities, but a crippled Iran and its
coalition could still attack neighboring oil facilities, unleash global terrorism, plant mines in the Persian Gulf and impair maritime trade in the Mediterranean,
Red Sea and Indian Ocean. Middle Eastern oil shipments would likely slow to a trickle as production declines due to the war and insurance
companies decide to drop their risky Middle Eastern clients. Iran and Venezuela would likely stop selling oil to the United States and Europe. From there,
would rise; and Iraqi and Afghani citizens might fully turn on the United States, immediately requiring the deployment of more American troops.
Russia, China, Venezuela, and maybe Brazil and Turkeyall of which essentially support Irancould be tempted to form an
alliance and openly challenge the U.S. hegemony. Russia and China might rearm their injured Iranian protege overnight, just as Nixon
rearmed Israel, and threaten to intervene, just as the U.S.S.R. threatened to join Egypt and Syria in 1973. President Obamas response would
likely put U.S. forces on nuclear alert, replaying Nixons nightmarish scenario. Iran may well feel duty-bound to respond to a unilateral
attack by its Israeli archenemy, but it knows that it could not take on the United States head-to-head. In contrast, if the United States leads the attack, Irans
response would likely be muted. If Iran chooses to absorb an American-led strike, its allies would likely protest and send weapons but would probably not risk
using force. While no one has a crystal ball, leaders should be risk-averse when choosing war as a foreign policy tool. If attacking Iran is deemed necessary,
Israel must wait for an American green light. A
Iran can change the entire order in the Middle East. He claimed that
Iranian officials have even admitted that their nuclear program will help terrorist organizations like
Hezbollah, by providing them with a nuclear umbrella that will protect them against retaliation whenever they
engage in acts of terrorism, thus
thwarting
counter-terror
added that from an international legal perspective, Iran is also a greater violator than Syria. While emphasizing that there are many atrocities being committed
in Syria as we speak and that Assad has done terrible things, he claims that the Geneva Convention only prohibits using chemical weapons on foreign
fighters, not ones own citizens. Furthermore, Syria never ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention, implying that Syria cannot be held legally responsible for
using chemical weapons against her own people. To the contrary, Arad emphasized that Iran has violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran
ratified, by internationally seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Their level of breach is higher than the Syrians, Arad stated. Additionally, he believes that
from a strategic point of view, our eyes should be on Iran, even if you look at Syria. Iran
Link debate loss on war powers is a crushing defeat for Obama emboldens future GOP
challenges thats Rubin key distinction for our scenario plan means hed be forced to give-in to
war hawks on sanctions to save face
Chait 5/23/13 (Jonathon, Obama Guards His Left Over Terrorism,
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/05/obama-guards-his-left-over-terrorism.html, CMR)
President Obamas
speech today defending his conduct in the war on terror was notable for what he was defending it against not
against the soft-on-terror (and maybe sorta-kinda-Muslim) attack that Republicans have lobbed against him since he first ran for president, but against critics on the left. It is a
sudden and welcome turnabout. When Obama first appeared on the national scene, he was a political novice, a liberal Democrat who had made his name opposing the Iraq War, a
The need to defend his hawkish credentials was an, and perhaps the,
essential task of his 2008 election. And the dynamic persisted throughout his first term, as Republicans used events like
Obamas attempt to close the Guantanamo Bay prison and the Christmas bomber to revive their weak-on-terror
constitutional law professor, and his middle name was Hussein.
caricature . Having fortified his right flank, Obamas left was totally exposed. Rand Paul signaled the first volley, by launching a high-profile filibuster speech on drones that
attracted the sudden support of fellow Republicans who had expressed zero previous qualms. The Department of Justice leak-prosecution story was the event that turned Obamas
civil liberties weakness into a gaping vulnerability. As Ive written, its political importance was a pure accident of timing. A new (inaccurate) report on Benghazi, followed by the IRS
scandal, created a sudden frenzy. Thats when the DOJ leak story dropped. And what would ordinarily be considered a policy dispute and one that attracted the interest only of a
handful of liberals and libertarians became a scandal pursued by Republicans, who previously had stood to Obamas right on the issue. The DOJ story was a problem for Obama
because it was a legitimate case of abuse, unlike the nothing-burger Benghazi story or the IRS episode for which the White House seemed to bear no responsibility. The legitimacy of
promised to review proposals to extend oversight of lethal actions outside of war zones that go beyond our reporting to Congress. He insisted that he would not and could not use
drones to attack an American citizen on U.S. soil. He promised to engage Congress about the existing Authorization to Use Military Force, or AUMF, to determine how we can
continue to fight terrorists without keeping America on a perpetual war-time footing. And he pledged a review of the DOJs approach to prosecuting national security leaks.
an attempt to clarify the respective duties of each institution and to provide an orderly process through a series of sequential actions by which those duties are exercised. In this sense and in the most charitable
description of the resolution, although it does not change or add to the Constitution, it facilitates the legal authorities specified in Articles I and II. Similar descriptions would apply to other framework laws.
Koh focused exclusively on the use of these laws in foreign policy decision-making, where they were designed not only to restrain executive discretion, but also to increase congressional input into key
foreign policy decisions, [4] although this description applies as well to such laws in the domestic policy arena. As examples, in addition to the War Powers Resolution of 1973, he cites the National
Emergencies Act of 1976 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, to which one can also add the Case-Zablocki Act of 1972 (regulating executive agreements), the Hughes Ryan
Amendment to the Foreign Assistance Act of 1974 (requiring presidential reporting to Congress of covert actions), the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) of 1978 (regulating national security
surveillance), and the Intelligence Oversight Act of 1980 (the product of the 1976 Church and Pike congressional committee hearings on intelligence operations, establishing congressional intelligence
committees and requiring presidential findings for covert operations). In the domestic policy field, examples include the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 (establishing new
congressional budget committees and a new budget process), the Ethics in Government Act of 1978 (containing provisions to determine the need for and selection of an independent counsel), and the
Presidential Records Act of 1978 (establishing governmental control of presidential records and a process for public release of them).
both limit discretionary actions of presidents and to promote greater participation by Congress. This
oversight
close
of executive actions through the imposition of procedural requirements, such as reporting and consulting provisions, legislative vetoes, findings of fact, and/or funding restrictions. It is
not difficult to see how these desired outcomes were an obvious reaction to the Watergate/Vietnam era where the exact opposite inter-branch dynamic predominated: unlimited discretion by presidents and
ineffective efforts by Congress to exercise its constitutional powers. Koh was quick to note, specifically in reference to foreign affairs but equally as true in domestic affairs, that virtually overlooked..was
that this generation of
statutes created not only procedural constraints , but also substantial fresh delegations of foreign affairs authority. By 1988, it had become clear
that the executive branch had successfully tapped many of these broad new authorizations while paying only lip service to the accompanying procedural strictures. [5] Herein, then, lies the key to why these
statutes, prompted by a congressional motive to restrain the chief executive, resulted, instead, in expanding executive power because they simultaneously delegated power to that office. Additionally,
the
intense politics involved in the legislative process through which each of these statutes was
produced ultimately led negotiators to compromise, which, thus, diluted the force and effect of the
proposed legislation. In other words, presidentialists would not willingly agree to tie the hands of future chief executives: therefore, in exchange, they
demanded and received some new delegation of power from Congress to counter-balance their
grudging acceptance of new legislative restrictions and controls on presidential policy-making.
Political capital key to preventing sanctions checks congressional hawks and pro-israel lobbies
Seyed Hossein Mousavian 10/18, 2013 The road to finalizing a nuclear deal with Iran,
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/10/18/iran-nuclear-talksgenevauraniumenrichment.html
These ongoing talks have the potential to become a historic moment for the U.S., Iran and the international
community. However, to ensure their progress, President Obama must do two things. First, he must resist pressure from
hawkish members of Congress, Israel and lobbying groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the Jewish
Institute for National Security Affairs and United Against Nuclear Iran. And second, he must include significant sanctions relief in the final agreement with
Iran. While Iran and the international community are ready for a final deal, the question remains whether
Obamas PC is vital to secure relief from sanctions keeps Iran at the table to secure a deal
Cockburn 11-11-13 (Patrick, Irish journalist who has been a Middle East correspondent since 1979 for
the Financial Times, Why Irans Concessions Wont Lead to a Nuclear Agreement,
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/11/11/why-irans-concessions-wont-lead-to-a-nuclear-agreement/,)
Political will for a deal is still there in Washington and Tehran, but its opponents will also gather their
formidable forces. These include Republicans and many Democrats, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies, France. The momentum towards an
interim agreement that was building at the end of last week has been broken. In Tehran President Hassan Rouhani has so far had a fairly easy
ride because of his recent election and the support of the Supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. But if he is seen as offering too many
concessions on the nuclear programme and not getting enough back in terms of a relaxation of economic sanctions then he
and his supporters become politically vulnerable. There are some signs that this is already happening. The Reformists in Iran will also be
vulnerable to allegations that they have given the impression that they are negotiating from weakness because economic sanctions are putting unsustainable
pressure on Iran. If this argument was true then Israel, France and Saudi Arabia can argue that more time and more sanctions will make the Iranians willing to
concede even more. There is no doubt that sanctions do have a serious impact on the Iranian economy, but it does not
necessarily follow that it will sacrifice its nuclear programme . The confrontational policy advocated much of the US Congress may, on the
contrary decide Iran to build a nuclear weapon on the grounds that the international campaign against Iranian nuclear development is only one front in an
overall plan to overthrow the system of government installed in Iran since the fall of the Shah in 1979. In other words, Iranian concessions on nuclear issues
are not going to lead to an agreement, because the real objective is regime change. On the other hand, the decision by President Obama not to
launch airstrikes against Syria, Irans crucial Arab ally, after the use of chemical weapons on 21 August, has to a degree
even
President
tougher sanctions
demilitarised the
and threats of military action
by those who believe that confrontation with Iran works better than diplomacy.
PC is key.
Leverett 11-7-13 (Flynt, senior fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C. and a
professor at the Pennsylvania State University School of International Affairs, and Hillary Mann Leverett,
EO of Strategic Energy and Global Analysis (STRATEGA), a political risk consultancy, Americas
moment of truth about Iran, http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/11/07/333513/americas-moment-of-truthabout-iran/, )
America can also fail Irans test if it is unable to provide comprehensive sanctions relief as part of a negotiated nuclear settlement. The
Obama administration now acknowledges what we have noted for some time-that, beyond transitory executive branch initiatives, lifting or even
substantially modifying U.S. sanctions to support diplomatic progress will take congressional action. During Obamas
presidency, many U.S. sanctions initially imposed by executive order have been written into law. These bills-signed, with little heed to their long-term
consequences, by Obama himself-have also greatly expanded U.S. secondary sanctions, which threaten to punish third-country entities not for anything theyve done in America, but
for perfectly lawful business they conduct in or with Iran. The bills contain conditions for removing sanctions stipulating not just the dismantling of Irans nuclear infrastructure, but
also termination of Tehrans ties to movements like Hizballah that Washington (foolishly) designates as terrorists and the Islamic Republics effective transformation into a secular
liberal republic. The
Obama administration may have managed to delay passage of yet another sanctions bill for a few
weeks-but Congressional Democrats no less than congressional Republicans have made publicly clear that they will not relax conditions for removing existing sanctions to help
Obama conclude and implement a nuclear deal. If their obstinacy holds, why should others respect Washingtons high-handed demands for compliance with its extraterritorial (hence,
illegal) sanctions against Iran? Going into the next round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday, it
spend enormous
depends
significantly
on his readiness to do so .
warned Congress Wednesday against scuttling a historic opportunity for a nuclear pact
with Iran by pressing ahead with new sanctions while international negotiators seek to prevent Tehran from being able to assemble an atomic weapons
arsenal. Kerry, who as a senator joined the effort to impose crippling oil, trade and investment restrictions on Iran, said the United States and other
world powers are united behind an offer they presented to Iranian negotiators in Geneva last week. But he said new
action now from U.S. lawmakers could shatter an international coalition made up of countries with interests as divergent as France,
Russia and China, endangering hopes for a peaceful end to the decade-long nuclear standoff with the Islamic republic. "We put these
sanctions in place in order to be able to put us in the strongest position possible to be able to negotiate. We now are negotiating," Kerry told
reporters ahead of testifying before the Senate Banking Committee. "And the risk is that if Congress were to unilaterally move to raise
sanctions, it could break faith in those negotiations, and actually stop them and break them apart."
US negotiating team are on Capitol Hill, trying to dissuade senators from that sort
of outright sabotage. Secretary of State John Kerry, along with Wendy Sherman, are meeting with members of the Senate
Banking Committee and others to beg, plead and cajole the Capitol Hill busybodies, many of whom are strongly influenced by the Israel
lobby and its chief arm, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
So far , it appears that the Democratic-controlled Senate, despite its AIPAC ties, is
willing to go along with White House requests to avoid interfering in the talks . Reports The Wall Street Journal: Proponents of
tougher sanctions could seek avenues beside the Banking Committee to move a measure. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) is likely to oppose such a move, however.
Mr. Reid on Tuesday warned
against attempts to force extraneous issues into the debate over the defense bill.
Obama administration officials have been reaching out to a number of lawmakers in recent days to tamp down
any
momentum for new sanctions. Mr. Kerry has personally spoken with key senators while traveling in recent days, and was to speak to top Senate Democrats
on Wednesday.
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and US Secretary of State John Kerry all spoke of how much closer they were to an
agreement than they have been in decades. Nonetheless, the devil is in the detail and none more so when dealing with making Irans nuclear facilities
open to the international community. The mechanics of ensuring full transparency at a large number of different kinds of nuclear facilities are both
politically sensitive and technically difficult. They make it very easy to derail progress unless there is a clear
political lead
from the politicians that would encourage (or even allow) trust between the two sides.
Germany, Iran and Russia will send top nuclear negotiators back to Geneva next week to see whether they can push
the ball forward . And on Wednesday, Obama spoke by telephone with French President Francois Hollande. The two
countries "are in full agreement " on Iran, the White House said in a statement.
are moving in the right direction on several tracks . While the diplomats were hammering away at each
chief, Yukiya Amano, won IAEA access to Iran with an
agreement that the IAEA will visit the Arak heavy-water production plant and a uranium mine at Gchine
within three months. This may help allay French fears , which would improve the atmosphere at Geneva
when the diplomats meet again in just over a week.
other over four days in Geneva, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Strikingly, Obama has also been deft in the ways he has drawn upon Vice President Joe Biden. During much of the campaign, Biden appeared to be kept under
wraps. But in the transition, he has been invaluable to Obama in negotiating a deal with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on the fiscal cliff and in
pulling together the gun package. Biden was also at his most eloquent at the ceremony announcing the gun measures. All of this has added up for Obama to
one of the most effective transitions in modern times. And it is paying rich dividends: A CNN poll this past week pegged his approval rating at 55%, far above
the doldrums he was in for much of the past two years. Many of his long-time supporters are rallying behind him. As the first Democrat since Franklin D.
Roosevelt to score back-to-back election victories with more than 50% of the vote, Obama is in the strongest position since early in his first year. Smarter,
tougher, bolder -- his new style is paying off politically. But in the long run, will it also pay off in better governance? Perhaps -- and
for the country's sake, let's hope so. Yet, there
that in his new toughness, he is going overboard, trying to run over them . They don't see a president who wants to
roll up his sleeves and negotiate; they see a president who wants to barnstorm the country to beat them up. News that Obama is converting his
campaign apparatus into a nonprofit to support his second term will only deepen that sense. And it frustrates them that he is winning: At their retreat, House
Republicans learned that their disapproval has risen to 64%. Conceivably, Obama's tactics could pressure Republicans into
capitulation on several fronts. More likely, they will be spoiling for more fights . Chances for a "grand
bargain" appear to be hanging by a thread.
AFF Obama no PC
Obamacare killed all Obamas PC blocking all focus on anything else in his agenda.
Foreign Policy, 11/14/13 (Red in the Face: Charting the media outrage over Obamacare; BY KALEV
LEETARU | NOVEMBER 14, 2013;
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/11/14/mapping_obamacare_outrage_media)
As front page headlines chronicle the ever-growing daily drumbeat of Obamacare woes, the saturation of domestic coverage
has been displacing a wide range of critical foreign policy developments. Syria's bloody civil war rages on, while Egypt
potentially stands on the brink of its own. The United States and Iran, meanwhile, forge historic progress towards a nuclear
agreement -- not that you'd know it from the headlines, which remain focused on lost health insurance plans, faulty computer
code, and sweetheart government contracting deals. Official confirmation of the Syrian government's destruction of its
chemical weapons production facilities barely garnered a mention, while CBS News' retraction of a 60 Minutes piece on what
went wrong in Benghazi -- one of the few retractions issued in its 45-year history -- yielded a collective yawn. Indeed, had one
woken up this morning after a year-long nap, one could be forgiven for assuming that the most pressing U.S. foreign policy
issues had magically been resolved, leaving Obamacare as the single greatest threat to domestic tranquility.
While technically a domestic policy issue, the political turmoil that has enveloped Obamacare has had a significant impact on
U.S. foreign policy -- from sparking the total shutdown of the federal government to forcing the Obama administration into
damage control and public outreach at a critical foreign policy juncture. The constant distraction created by the Obamacare
debacle, meanwhile, is having an impact of its own. The latest Gallup poll, current through Nov. 13, shows that since the
government shutdown, the president's disapproval rating has reached close to the highest levels of his tenure.
Coupled with the daily drumbeat of NSA disclosures, the Obama administration is finding itself playing near-constant defense.
This raises key questions about what the national coverage of Obamacare really looks like, how all-consuming it is, and how
the country as a whole is reacting to it. Is the cacophony of headlines foretelling ultimate healthcare doom truly reflective of a
darkening across the nation towards Obamacare? Are they really eating up political capital that the administration should be
leveraging toward other activities, including foreign policy?
Even in the increasingly online realm of the news media, there is still a fixed "news hole" that can only accommodate a small
number of stories. High profile coverage of Obamacare knocks stories about American foreign policy off the front page,
shifting the public's attention back home and decreasing the average citizen's knowledge of the latest developments abroad.
One way to visualize this phenomenon involves using big data, which paints an unusually vivid picture of the pattern and tone
of news coverage. Let's take a look at the numbers and see what we can learn about what the media picture of Obamacare
really looks like and how it has evolved.
AFF Obama no PC
Obama has no PC now Obamacare is taking over the news leading to severs lack of PC on any
foreign policy issues.
Foreign Policy, 11/14/13 (Red in the Face: Charting the media outrage over Obamacare; BY KALEV
LEETARU | NOVEMBER 14, 2013;
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/11/14/mapping_obamacare_outrage_media)
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
So what does this all mean and what are the policy takeaways? One might reasonably argue that none of the results here are
altogether surprising -- it doesn't require data mining to figure out that media coverage of Obamacare has become deeply
negative over the past year or that it is consuming a large fraction of the daily headlines. Yet, what we are able to see in the
crisp mathematical precision of the computerized graphs and maps above is just how vast and intense the negative coverage
really is. As a result, we can move beyond anecdotes like "It's getting a lot of coverage" to precise statements like "More than
80 percent of all television news shows are talking about it."
We can also gaze through the eyes of the news media and literally map the deep pessimism towards the law as it spreads across
the nation. This by itself is a key finding: just how much the media has been covering Obamacare and, in particular, how key
the GOP's tying of Obamacare to the government shutdown was in bringing it to the forefront. Indeed, while Republicans may
have lost in their attempt to defund Obamacare through their shutdown showdown, they succeeded in making it a national news
item, and thus setting the stage for the media to eagerly pounce on the first hints of a problem with the new website.
A month after the government shutdown, more than 60 percent of American television news programming still discusses
Obamacare, while a vast array of critical foreign policy issues struggle for coverage amongst this deluge. Of course, this is
simply what the news media does -- across the world, it reports on the freshest stories that are likely to win the most readers.
Even with the potentially infinite virtual space of the online world, there is still a fixed amount of real estate on the front page,
fixed number of reporters, and a fixed amount of time in the day to cover all the stories competing for attention. Still, the sheer
magnitude of the shift inwards caused by the Obamacare debacle and the attendant loss of political capital and public approval
have real implications for the administration's flexibility in tackling future foreign policy issues.
For the first time, we can use sophisticated computer algorithms to transform the daily heartbeat of the news media into a
visual window onto the national consciousness. Through the powerful lens of big data we now have a telescope to peer not at
the heavens above, but at ourselves here on Earth -- revealing a frightening collection of stormclouds that have thrown a
shadow over American foreign policy.