"Hillary is the worst option": How Moscow sees American politics

Updated by Max Fisher on May 4, 2015, 11:40 a.m.

ET @Max_Fisher max@vox.com
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Presidents Obama and Putin meet in the 2012 G20 summit in MexicoALEXEI
NIKOLSKY/AFP/GettyImages
This is part one of a three-part interview. Part two: the Middle East. Part
three: the risks of war.
Everyone in Moscow tells you that if you want to understand Russia's foreign
policy and its view of its place the world, the person you need to talk to is
Fyodor Lukyanov.
Lukyanov is the chair of Russia's Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, as well
as the editor-in-chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs, which are
something like the Russian equivalents of America's Council on Foreign Relations
and Foreign Affairs though the Russian versions are considered much closer
to the state and its worldview.
Widely considered both an influential leader and an unofficial interpreter of
Russia's foreign policy establishment, Lukyanov is frequently sought out by

Western policymakers and journalists who wish to understand Russia's approach

to the world. During a recent trip to Moscow, Amanda Taub and I met Lukyanov
around the corner from the looming Foreign Ministry compound (his office is
nearby), at a small Bohemian cafe that serves French and Israeli food to a room
packed with gray suits.
"THERE'S A WIDESPREAD VIEW THAT WITH HILLARY THERE WOULD BE
NO CHANCE AT ALL" FOR EASING TENSIONS
We discussed Russia's foreign policy, the country's role in the world, and how
its leaders think about the problems and opportunities facing their nation.
Lukyanov, hunched over his coffee, had clearly spent a great deal of time with
policymakers in and outside of Moscow, and he peppered his answers with
references to political science terminology and wonky policy jargon. But he also
reflected the official views of Moscow, which makes his answers a revealing
glimpse into how his country sees the world.
What follows is a transcript of the section of our conversation that touched on
Russia's relationship with the United States. This has been edited and
condensed for clarity.

Max Fisher: We talked earlier about the disagreements within the Russian
foreign policy establishment over the Iran nuclear deal. Given that the United
States wants to make the deal happen and that there is so much tension
currently between the US and Russia, is this affecting the view within Moscow
toward the Iran talks? Maybe some people oppose the Iran deal because it would
be seen as beneficial to the US, or they support the Iran deal because it could
be an opening to ease tensions with Washington?
Fyodor Lukyanov: It's not part of the discussion at all, to decrease tensions with
the West. It's not an issue.
Public opinion is pretty mobilized because of Ukraine. A lot of policymakers, even
those who used to lean more toward some kind of rapprochement with the West,
are irritated by sanctions and so on, so it's not part of the discussion.
So if Russia does something, it's not necessarily to try to explain it as an effort
to decrease tensions with the West. It might be a consequence, but it's not the
goal.
Max Fisher: It certainly seems that theres no political appetite in Moscow for a
rapprochement with the West. Is that preference widely held within the foreign
policy establishment, as well? Or is there a faction that is arguing for
rapprochement?
Fyodor Lukyanov: There is a faction, but its smaller than it used to be. And even
many of those belonging to this faction say that, realistically speaking, they

dont see any options for it in the future, because on the American side theres a
very high level of polarization in the political establishment. And with the
election campaigns about to start, its the worst time to try to launch something.
No American politician will gain anything positive by being softer on Russia. Its
not a central issue, but maybe candidates could use it in swing states, where
many Eastern Europeans [who are generally skeptical of Russia] live.
So I dont hear any expectations of this, especially since theres a good chance
that Hillary Clinton will become the Democratic candidate. I think theres a
widespread view that with Hillary there would be no chance at all. For her and
for her team, since the 1990s, Russia is a failure. One of the biggest failures of
Bill Clinton was that he wanted to transform Russia. He was very sincere in his
view of how he wanted to transform Russia and to help this transformation, but
by the end of his tenure he was terribly disappointed.
Psychologically, for Hillary and for people like [Clinton-era Deputy Secretary of
State] Strobe Talbott and many others, Russia is an unfinished job.
Max Fisher: What it is that they want to accomplish?
Fyodor Lukyanov: Many people here believe they will try to come back to the line
of the 1990s to encourage Russia into an internal transformation.
Fyodor Lukyanov speaks at a 2014 conference in London (Anthony Harvey/Getty
Images for The New York Times)
Max Fisher: Does that mean regime change?
Fyodor Lukyanov: As a long-term goal, yes. Not by force, of course, but to
encourage some kind of social development that will upend the current system
and will promote a new one.
Max Fisher: So its expected here that Clinton would take a hostile approach to
Russia?
Fyodor Lukyanov: Yes, a very hostile approach. Hillary is the worst option of any
president [from the Russian view], maybe worse than any Republican.
Max Fisher: Even though she led the US-Russia reset as secretary of state?
Fyodor Lukyanov: She led the reset, but it was done by Obama. She was a
disciplined official and did what the White House decided to do. Formally she
was in charge, but in real terms she never dealt with this. It was a direct
project of Obama and of [former US Ambassador to Russia] Michael McFaul.
Hillary pushed the button, but that was just a symbolic move, and then she was
never active in this.
By the end of her time as secretary of state, when shed already announced she
would leave, she made a couple of statements without being diplomatic anymore.

Statements about Russia, about this re-Sovietization of post-Soviet space,

about Putin, that demonstrated her real feelings.
"THE RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP HAS NO CLUE ABOUT HOW THE AMERICAN
SYSTEM WORKS, HOW COMPLICATED IT IS"
I think there is a widespread view that she personally hates Putin and personally
dislikes [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov. So in the case of her
presidency it will be not very good chemistry between them.
Max Fisher: Some people weve spoken to have said something similar about
Obama that Obama dislikes Putin, that hes motivated by personal animus, and
that once he leaves office maybe the sanctions will weaken because theyre
driven personally by Obama.
Fyodor Lukyanov: There is a widespread view that Obama dislikes Putin very
much. Its obvious they dont like each other.
I think Obama actually is not at all an emotional person. He looked at first very
human and appealing, but hes not at all. Hes a very calculating and cold guy
without a lot of emotions and feelings. I dont think his personal perception of
Putin plays such a big role. He made a big miscalculation because it seemed like
he and McFaul really believed [current Russian Prime Minister and former
President Dmitry] Medvedev might become president for a second term, which
was a wrong expectation. He did not hide disappointment when Medvedev
decided to step down.
Obama sees Russia as a big problem that consumes so much of his time that he
would like to dedicate to other issues. He mostly would like to keep distance
from Russia, to settle the most acute challenges, but after that he doesn't have
interest.
The reset was not because he wanted to make Russia the centerpiece of his
foreign policy agenda but because actually he failed with other issues. Russia
was meant to be supportive and became the biggest achievement, with the reset
and the New START [2010 nuclear arms reduction] agreement. But the reset
was exhausted by New START and by the Russian accession to the World Trade
Organization [in 2012]. They did not have any other agenda. They could have
developed a new agenda if the situation had remained favorable as it was under
Medvedev, but Putin settled that.
For Obama, Russia turned into a permanent headache. And a headache irritates.
Its not such a strong feeling that other [US] politicians have about Russia.
PUTIN IS "UTTERLY ANTI-AMERICAN, DEEPLY AND SINCERELY"
Max Fisher: Let me ask about the flip side of that. How do you think Putin sees
the US now?

Fyodor Lukyanov: Hes utterly anti-American, deeply and sincerely. And its not
about Obama or Bush or Clinton. Its about his perception of America as a
destructive power.
The most interesting foreign policy statement he made was published one week
before his third term began in 2012. The article, "Russia and the changing
world," was extremely interesting and substantial. He expressed everything
that happened after. His core perception was that the United States is a
country that misuses its might and creates even more chaos in the contemporary
world, which is anyway very chaotic and unpredictable. Americans, by what they
do, just worsen the situation.
The idea was not to challenge America, but to protect Russia. This is how he
sees the world, with the United States as a really destructive and destabilizing
power.
Max Fisher: Is there anything you believe the Russian leadership
misunderstands about the United States, or that you wish they understood
better?
Fyodor Lukyanov: The Russian leadership has no clue about how the American
system works, how complicated it is.
For example, after Putins 2011 decision to exchange with Medvedev [in which
the two switched positions of prime minister and president], he said, "Look at
the United States. Obama and Hillary both ran for the presidency, but then
they sat down and decided who would be president, and Obama won that." How
the American system works, its not a big interest to our leadership.
I think right now theres a better understanding of the differences between
your president and your Congress. Before, it was the perception that the
American president can do anything he wants, and all of these references to a
hostile Congress are just bullshit. But now I think theres a better
understanding that Congress can be extremely disruptive to whatever the
administration is trying to do. This has become another argument that it doesnt
make sense to try with them.
Max Fisher: Is there no effort to play Congress and the president off of one
another?
Fyodor Lukyanov: No, because contrary to Europe, where there are all options to
use splits, in the United States, Russia has absolutely no influence in Congress.
We dont have a lobby; we dont have special leverage there.