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Science, Technology and International Politics

Author(s): William T. R. Fox


Source: International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 1 (Mar., 1968), pp. 1-15
Published by: Wiley on behalf of The International Studies Association
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andInternational
Politics*
Technology
Science,
WILLIAM
COLUMBIA

T. R. Fox
UNIVERSITY

that
of the 1960'shave been discovering
As the supexpowers
makewaron normakepeace witheach other,the
theycan neither
armsracebetweenthemhas been givingwayto a space race,itself
race. The space industry
partof a largerscienceand technology
is todayone oftheworld'sgreatest,
eventhough-there
are onlytwo
of the Soviet
majorcustomers
for its product,the governments
is a
Unionand of the UnitedStates.Leadershipin thatindustry
hallmark
ofsuperpower
status,buttheentrancefeeand theannual
dues are bothso highthatthe space club will remainsmall.
The Soviet-American
sciencerace is only the most dramatic
reasonfora studentof worldpoliticsto pay close attentionto
changes,in the world's
changes,and especiallyto differential
scienceand technology.
Thereis probablyno otherresourcethat
can be made to serveso manyalternative
nationalpurposesas a
nation'sscientificand technicalmanpower.There is no better
indicatorof tomorrow's
wealth and power than today'sscience
capability.
Indeed,thisresourceis so fungibleand so preciousthat
if one wantedto plot the positionof statesof the worldin the
1980'salonga curveof economicadvancement
(and of per capita
in worldpolitics),a verygood measurewould be the
influence
* This essay was preparedfor deliveryas the KeynoteAddressat the
Eighth Annual Conventionof the InternationalStudies Association,New
York City,April 14, 1967. It is very largelya by-productof the author's
in the organizingphase of the programof ColumbiaUniversity's
participation
The supportof that
new Instituteforthe Studyof Science in Human Affairs.
Instituteis gratefully
acknowledged.
VOLUME 12, NUMBER

1,

MARCH

1968

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WILLIAM

T. R. Fox

wholepopulationenrolledas univerof each country's


proportion
and technicalstudentsin the 1960's.
scientific
sity-level
is by no meansan unworkedarea.
"Scienceand worldaffairs"
Wright'ssurveymade in 1962 listedsome350 items.1
Christopher
guide"was followedin 1964
called "a tentative
Whathe modestly
bibliForeignServiceInstitute
by a lessselectiveStateDepartment
is
there
Where
items.
thousand
two
more
than
It
listed
ography.2
so muchsmoketheremustbe at leasta littlefire.
Nothingveryusefulcan be said about sciencein generaland
politicsin general.Thereare,howhowit is relatedto international
between
particularrelationships
ever, two ways of identifying
scienceand worldpoliticsaboutwhichusefulthingscan be said.
topicsin the academicstudyof interOne may list conventional
and technological
andthenaskaboutthescientific
nationalrelations
one may
topics.Alternatively,
aspectsofeach oftheseconventional
to the studyof scienceaffairs
listthe mainheadingsappropriate
politicalaspectsof each of those
and ask about the international
topics.
coursein international
politicsmightinclude
A conventional
severallectureson basic powerfactors.One of themostimportant
of the morethan
would deal withthe degreeof industrialization
one hundredsovereignstates.The IndustrialRevolutiondid not
at thesametimeor at the samerate.One of the
occureverywhere
of anyparticularscimostimportant
ways in whichthe influence
upon industrialsocietyhas
development
entificor technological
affectedworldpoliticsderivesfromthe transienteffectsof that
whileone or onlya fewstatesare able to utilizeit.
development
Consider,for example,the probableeffectson world politicsif
as
had had as muchsuccessin nucleartechnology
Nazi Germany
different
Western
how
consider
Or
had
rocket
technology.
it
in
Europemightlooktodayif boththe UnitedStatesand the Soviet
Unionhad had atomicweaponsin theperiod1945to 1950,so that
theUnitedStatescouldnothaveheld an atomicumbrellaoverthe
Council
1 "A TentativeGuide to Writingson Science and World Affairs,"
1962).
forAtomicAge Studies(New York:ColumbiaUniversity,
on Science and World Affairs(Washington,D.C.: U.S.
2 Bibliography
PrintingOffice,November,1964). One reason why this bibliGovernment
ographyis so large is thatmodem science operateson world politicslargely
so that "science and world affairs"turnsout to be
via technology,
indirectly
and worldpolitics."
"science,technology,
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unarmedEurope withoutriskingtwo-way
thenalmost-completely
which
in sciencehas a politicalsignificance
atomicwar.Beingfirst
it did nothave in earliertimes.
derivesfromthe unequalbenefits
Anotherwholeset of effects
confersonce it
permanently
a
advance
technological
which given
Comparethe
system.
political
world
into
the
assimilated
fully
is
richEngland
coal-and-iron
on
Revolution
effects
of the Industrial
in the geotheme
recurring
poor Ireland.A
and on coal-and-iron
of a transof the 1940'swas the disparateeffects
politicalwritings
with
on the greatpowersin theircompetition
revolution
portation
of overland
in the relativeefficiency
each other,the improvement
whichwas feltto have had
as againstoverseastransport
transport
Great
order.3
thewholeinternational
in reshaping
a majorinfluence
states,suchas theUnitedStatesand Russia,couldbe
continent-size
locatedGermany
Centrally
and economically.
politically
integrated
couldgainpowerin the age of t-herailroad,at the expenseof less
But it does nottake
locatedEuropeanpowercompetitors.
centrally
scienceleadershipto enjoythe naturaladvantagesin locationor
confer.Otherwise,
mayultimately
resourcewhicha newtechnology
Kuwaitwouldhardlyenjoyin 1968an averthecitizensof oil-rich
age incomeaboutequal to thatof citizensof the UnitedStates.
Theremaybe anotherset oflecturesdealingwiththeactorsin
to considerhow scienworldpolitics.Here it mightbe appropriate
changesaffectthe relativeimportanceof
tificand technological
groupsin worldpolitics.It seems
local,national,and transnational
clearthatformostof the past two centuriesthe advancingtechtechnologyof
and transportation-the
nologyof communication
themotorcar,the
themassnewspaper,
therailroad,thetelegraph,
airplane,radioand television-hasincreasedmobilityand contact
withinindividualcountriesrelativelymore than it did between
This mayno longerbe truein WesternEurope,and the
countries.
and
ofcommunication
networks
ofworld-wide
efficiency
increasing
transnational
may be creatingpoliticallyimportant
transportation
and interest
groupsof variouskinds.
communities
on ourstate
One studentoftheimpactof atomicage inventions
3 See, for example,Harold and MargaretSprout,eds., Foundationsof
Press,1945), Chapters
NationalPower (Princeton,N. J.: PrincetonUniversity
but from
selectionsnotonlyfromtheirown writings
IV, V and VI forpertinent
thoseof WilliamT. R. Fox, NicholasJ. Spykmanand RobertStrausz-Hup6
VOLUME 12, NUMBER

1, MARCH 1968

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WILLIAM T. R. Fox

are causing
JohnHerz,has concludedthattheseinventions
system,
state.4This oughtto mean thatthe
the demiseof the territorial
as one of the categoriesof
will declinein importance
nation-state
or thebloc
actorsin worldpoliticsand thatonlythe superpowers
or perhaps
in the future.Unfortunately,
actorswill be important
statesdo notseemto havegotten
someoftheterritorial
fortunately,
the word.Herz wrotebeforethe balance of terrorhad begun to
appearquitestableand beforelack of disciplineand polycentrism
had becomeapparenton bothsidesof theIronCurtain.The technologicalgap betweentheUnitedStatesand itsWesternEuropean
in thepress
so muchattention
whichhas attracted
NATO partners
recentlyalso helps to explainsome of the Westernpolycentrism.
The UnitedStatesgovernment
does not appearto be greatlyconcernedabout closingthisgap, even thoughthe gap is a threatto
of
of perfornance
and thuslimitsthe efficiency
alliancesolidarity
the bloc actorin today'sbipolarcompetition.
ofnewstatesin thenon-European
worldraises
The proliferation
questionsas to how smalla statecan be and stillenjoyaccess to
and to whatextent
ofadvancedscienceand technology,
thebenefits
can
micro-sovereignties
theproblemscreatedby thenewpatternof
common
either
be overcome
bythedesireforsuchaccess.In theory,
type,or funcoftheKenya-Uganda-Tanzania
servicesarrangements
suchas theWorldHealthOrgantionalinternational
organizations
ization,open theway fora solutionto theseproblems.
As one turnsto discusstheWesternstatesystemitself,and parsystemfrom
ofourmultiplesovereignty
thetransformation
ticularly
one mayspecuto a loosebipolarsystem,
a balanceofpowersystem
and technological
changeshave
late on the role whichscientific
To do thisone mustengagein an
playedin thistransformation.
or,perhapsmoreelewhichmightbe called `hindcasting"
activity
thattherehad
us
Let
imagine
forecasting."
gantly,"retrospective
different
would the
How
no
as
world
such thing two
wars.
been
atomic
energyhave been
worldof 1967look?Wouldthesecretsof
Ocean?
of
the
Atlantic
soonerorlater,and on whichside
discovered
advancehave
and technological
Would not the pace of scientific
centurywithoutthe spurof war and
quickenedin the twentieth
4 International
Politics in the AtomicAge (New York: Columbia UniversityPress,1959).
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Is thereany reasonwhythe advantagesof


defensemobilization?
whichthe UnitedStatesand
scale in researchand development
perhapsalso the SovietUnionenjoytodaywould not also be enjoyedbya UnitedStatesand a Russiawhichhad avoidedparticipaworldwars?One cannotseparateout the
tionin two protracted
change fromall the other
and technological
strandof scientific
to maketheeffort.
dynamicforces,butit is instructive
ideas in worldpoliticsmayalso be derivedfromthe
Governing
For example,socialDarspuriously.
scienceof t-hetime,sometimes
provideda rationof thesurvivalofthefittest,
thedoctrine
winism,
ale forforeign
policieswithuntoldhumancosts.For Darwinhimself
betweenspecies
to a competition
referred
thesurvivalof thefittest
and not betweenmembersof the same specieswho happenedto
in the colorof theirskin,eyes,and hair,and
differ
onlyslightly
thatmuch.Query:Aretheresimilar
did notevendiffer
sometimes
science which today corrupt
of twentieth-century
vulgarizations
affairs?
thinking
aboutforeign
for
changesaffectthe institutions
Scientific
and technological
sanctionsof
disputes.The slow-acting
the settlement
of interstate
Article16 oftheLeague Covenantwouldhave beenwhollyineffecdecisiveeventsoccurred
in whichirretrievably
tivein anyconflict
has rendered
in the firsthoursof militaryaction.If technology
obsolete,it has had an
League of Nationsstylecollectivesecurity
on theutilityand costof generalwar
effect
evenmoredevastating
powers.
as a device for resolvingdisputesamong first-ranking
resources
technological
and
scientific
available
Are
newly
Query:
otherkinds
harnessedto thetaskof strengthening
beingeffectively
international
disputes?
of institutions
forresolving
Part of the answermay be foundby examiningthe ways in
have alteredthe
whichthe new scienceand the new technology
policy.If evenforthefirst-ranking
offoreign
and military
objectives
powersit is somethingcalled deterrenceratherthan something
dehopesto avoid military
called victory
by whicha government
some of the
may be performing
feat,thenreciprocaldeterrence
of
machinery
handledby war or by a functioning
tasksformerly
collectivesecurity.
Thereare North-South
problemsas wellas East-Westproblems.
The promiseofscienceis shapingboththesenseof whatadvanced
and the
can do aboutless developedcountries
countries
industrial
VOLUME 12, NUMBE1R 1, MARICH1968

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WILLIAM T. R. Fox

demandswhichthe less developedcountriesare makingon the


maybe a national
ofnewsovereignties
advancedones.The stigmata
a nationalairline,a nationalsteelmill,and a national
university,
oftheForeign
at theUnitedNationslargerthanthestaff
delegation
and nuOffice
in thenationalcapital;but ecological,demographic,
of the
the
management
in
important
be
more
may
studies
tritional
populaof theburgeoning
expectations
risingand as yetunfulfilled
tionsoutsideNorthAmericaand Europe.
but it does suggest
speculation,
All thisis ratherconventional
politics,
of
how muchworkcan be done by students intemational
methods
of analysisand conventional
categories
usingconventional
relationsare
of social scienceresearchStudentsof international
hamperedby lack of scienceliteracyand by the limiteddemands
forhelpin overcoming
whichtheycan makeuponnaturalscientists
can makethembetter
The naturalscientists
illiteracy.
thisscientific
politics,
politics.Studentsof international
studentsof international
though
however,cannotmake naturalscientistsbetterscientists,
makethemmoreeffective
citizens.
theymayoccasionally
politicsfrom
Let us now approachscienceand international
Let us listsomeof themaincategoriesforthe
the otherdirection.
abouttheworldpolitical
and ask something
studyof scienceaffairs
fordiscusaspectof each ofthosetopics.Thus,one mightidentify
sion such topicsas the following:(1) scienceand the scientific
politics;(2) nationaland transmethodin thestudyofinternational
and theirimpacton theworldpoliticommunities
nationalscientific
as advisers
establishment
of thescientific
cal process;(3) members
organizations)in decisions
to governments
(and to international
considerations
the worldpoliticalprocess;(4) scientific
affecting
in
the
world
(5) decisions
process;
political
decisions
affecting
made by nathe
world
in
modern
aboutscienceas an institution
(6) the dream
and international
organizations;
tionalgovernments
and
a
depoliticized
of scienceas thewayout of "politics"-science
variables
as semi-independent
world; (7) scienceand technology
in worldpolitics;and, above all, (8) theproblemof cuttingdown
and technological
timein adjustingto scientific
innovative-adaptive
change.
has alwaysbeen undersomepressure,a
The politicalscientist
of
to live up to the pretensions
good deal of it self-administered,
Othersmaybe skepticalofhowscientific
thenameofhisdiscipline.
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how littleprepoliticalscienceis and perhapsnotevenunderstand


of the discipline'sname.
tensionwas involvedin the development
to talkabouta scienceof politics,it is even
If it is presumptuous
politics.One can,
moreso to talkabouta scienceof international
politics.The
international
in
science
of
role
the
about
talk
however,
and reconducting
for
need
the
particularly
and
method,
scientific
replican
scholar
another
that
a
fashion
such
in
on research
porting
about
own
judgment
cate as muchof it as he wishesand makehis
of thepriorresearch,have longopertheaccuracyand objectivity
politicshonest.But when
ated to keepthe studentof international
politics,one
one talksaboutscienceand the studyof international
morespecific.The new paradigmsof
is talkingabout something
of new paradigmsforthe
theconstruction
sciencehave stimulated
studyof worldpolitics.A mostobviousexampleis the effectof
studieson Karl Deutsch'sconception
NorbertWiener'scybernetic
of politics.Deutschconceivesof politicsmoreas a steeringdevice
willbe gladto learn
Manystatesmen
thanas a powercompetition.5
on the spaceship
thattheyare notmerepoliticiansbut helmsmen
Earth.
polithestudyof international
advanceshave affected
Scientific
as
technology
research
altered
have
for
they
in
another
way,
tics
data
data
classification,
collection,
Data
wellas researchparadigms.
all takeformshardly
and data maniipulation
storage,data retrieval,
relaof
international
study
The
imaginableonlya few yearsago.
it
affected
by thecultureof sciencein which now
tionsis inevitably
has to be carriedon.
One cannot,perhaps,speakof theAmericansciencecommunity
as new actorsin the world
sciencecommunity
or theinternational
are no morelikelyto agreeaboutUnited
politicalprocess.Scientists
Statespolicyin Vietnamor UnitedStatespolicytowardthe test
of international
lawyersor professors
ban thanare initernational
have,
sciencecommunities
politics.The nationaland international
in questionsof publicpolicy,
however,begunto developinterests
tendsto
disagree,the disagreement
so thateven wherescientists
of variousscientific
taketheformof arguingaboutthesignificance
The studentof worldpoliticsneeds to knowwho
considerations.
membersof these
and policy-influential
are the policy-sensitive
5 The Nervesof Government
(New York: Free Pressof Glencoe,1963).
VOLUME

12, NUMBER

1, MARCH

1968

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WILLIAMT. R. Fox

He needsto uncommunities.6
scientific
nationaland international
contactsbetweenscienderstandtheconsequencesof international
firstsponsored
Pugwashconferences,
tistsfromvariouscountries.
Americancapitalist,
Russian-sympathizing
by the Canadian-born,
CyrusEaton,are onlythe mostdramaticexample.The studentof
data in thePugwashexperience.
mayfindinteresting
functionalism
whommeetingswiththeiropfor
scientists,
social
It is ironicthat
Ironand BambooCurtains
of
the
side
other
the
on
positenumbers
have no Pugwashconusefulexperience,
mightbe a professionally
ferencesto report.One need not,however,acceptthe explanation
once gave thatperhapssocial scienwhichJ.RobertOppenheimer
to say to each other.
tistsdo nothave anything
to deMortonGrodzinsinventedthe colorfulterm,"traitriot,"
thateach of us is. 7 He describeda group
scribethepatriot-traitor
whowereaskedhowtheywouldhandleinformation
ofpsychiatrists
on in theirdoctorwhichtheystumbled
relevanttonationalsecurity
of the HipITey reconciledthe requirements
clientrelationship.
Grodzins
of
ways.
in
a
variety
citizenship
oath
of
loyal
and
pocratic
scienthe
guilt-ridden
about
been
talking
have
mightequallywell
against
used
be
to
weapons
atomic
made
tistsof Los Alamoswho
AdolfHitlerin a Europeanwar and saw themused againstan
almostdefeatedJapanin an Asiaticwar.How muchone or another
in orderto slow
of us oughtto be willingto risknationalsecurity
down the nucleararmsrace is onlypartlya matterof technical
amongworldrenownedAmerias publicdisagreements
judgment,
remindus. Even in weighinga potential
constantly
can physicists
in relationto a potentialgain in some
of nationalinterest
sacrifice
we are,as moralmenwithpluralvaluesand
interest,
transnational
of
The policyperspectives
behavingas "traitriots."
pluralloyalties,
are as worthyof studyas thoseof high-level
scientists
influential
politicians.The unexmilitarymen, diplomats,and professional
adviserspose
scientific
of a statesman's
plicatedvalue preferences
the same kindof problemforthe responsiblestatesman-politician
6 On the composition
of the Americanscience comand characteristics
munityand on govemmentuse of 'scientificadvice, see RobertGilpin and
Wright,eds., Scientistsand NationalPolicy Making (New York:
Christopher
Press,1964).
ColumbiaUniversity
7 See "The Traitriot,"
Chapter 12 in his The Loyal and the Disloyal
of Chicago Press,1956), pp. 208-16.
(Chicago: The University
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The
ofotherexpertadvisers.8
as theunexplicated
valuepreferences
diplomat,and the proprofessional
civil servant,the professional
been learning
fessionalsoldierwho have formorethana century
advice may have lessonsto teach the
how to give value-neutral
newcomers
to thepolicyprocess.
studentsof interand particularly
Query:Do social scientists,
nationalrelations,
perhapsfeel thattheyare at least as muchenas
titledto whisperdirectly
intotheear of thestatesman-politician
thenaturalscientist?
Do thesocialscientists
fearaboutthenatural
fearedabout soldiers,thatif
scientists
whattheyhave sometimes
the physicists
are too close to the seat of power,theiradvicemay
so that
exhibit
whatAlfredVagtshas calledthe"viceofimmediacy,"
the statesman-politician
getsfractional
advice to deal withwhole
of worldpoliticsthatthey
policy?Is it thesecretdesireofstudents
and all otherexperts,
shouldstandbetweenthestatesman-politician
and soldiers,because theybelievethat
includingnaturalscientists
theirdistinctive
talentis to be able to adviseon wholepolicy?So
far,theyhave notsucceededin gettingthe Presidentto appointa
socialscienceadviserto servealongsidehis naturalscienceadviser.
wonder
The Americanstudentof worldpoliticsmaysometimes
how the Americanswanderedinto a race withtheirBritishand
superFrenchfriendsto see on whichside of theAtlanticthefirst
sonictransport
race, ever
would fly.The scienceand technology
was supposedto be betweenthe two
sincethetraumaof Sputnik,
sides of the Iron Curtainand not betweent-hetwo sides of the
wouldhave had anybetNorthAtlantic.
Whethera socialscientist
in makingthatpointifhe had been
terluckthana naturalscientist
in a positionto advisethehighestlevel of policymakers,thereis
of those
no way of knowing.In any case, the characteristics
establishment
scientists
who are partof the nationalpolicymaking
8 See especially Warner R. Schilling,"Scientists,Foreign Policy and
there
Politics,"in Gilpinand Wright,op. cit.,pp. 144-74,and the references
advice whichHenryTizard and F. A. Lindemanngave
citedto the conflicting
in 1942. See also WarnerR. Schilling,"The H-Bomb
the Britishgovernment
Decision: How to Decide WithoutActuallyChoosing,"PoliticalScience Quarterly76 (March 1961), pp. 24-46; RobertGilpin,AmericanScientistsand
Press,1962);
University
Nuclear Weapons Policy (Princeton,N.J.: Princeiton
and Harold K. Jacobsonand Eric Stein,Diplomats,Scientistsand Politicians:
The UnitedStatesand the NuclearTest Ban Negotiations(Ann Arbor,Mich.:
of MichiganPress,1966).
University
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1968

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10

WILLiAMT. R. Fox

as the nationaland inneed to be describedat least as carefully


do.
sciencecommunities
ternational
in thepolicyproThereis need to studynotonlythe scientists
but thereis also
a
actor,
as
group
community
cess,or thescientific
enterinto
which
science
to
relative
considerations
need to examine
Here one can make a roughtwo-folddivisionbepolicymaking.
in makingnationalpolicy,
considerations
tweentheroleofscientific
and the way in which
policy,
nationalsecurity
and particularly
the sciencepolicy
decisionsare madewhichconstitute
government
the role of
Onlythencan we come to understand
of the country.
mobilizedsciencein an era of totaldiplomacyand limitedwar.
varichangeis a semi-independent
and technological
Scientific
able in theequationsofworldpoliticsbecausedecisionsof national
organizations
and occasionallythoseof international
governments
whichgoes
and themassoftheeffort
therate,thedirection,
affect
intoproducingthe change.In the past,it was leftlargelyto the
economichistorianto describethe impactof majortechnological
changeson the social systemin whichtheytook place; but an
writingaboutthe earlyindustrial
magisterially
economichistorian
revolutionand the relativerise in Englishpower,whichin the
becamevisible,does notquite
or twogradually
courseofa century
of
meettheneedsof the 1960'sand 1970's.9In a timeperspective
the
in
on
centuriestheimpactof wars,evenworldwars, changes
ordermay seem slightas comparedwi-ththe great
international
and technologicalchangesof recentcenturies.It was
scientific
earliersuggestedthatnuclearenergy,the computer,and microgenerallymightwell be producingmanyof the same
electronics
we nowsee whetherornotthemasscarnageof 1914-18and
effects
1939-45had takenplace. One cannot,however,go farwiththisline
to explainwhynations
it mightbe difficult
Otherwise,
ofargument.
to be the
in an effort
providesuchmassivesupportto theirscientists
principleor to completethe develto discovera new scientific
first
device.
opmentof a scientific
weremorenearlycorrectthansomenatSome socialscientists
thepoliticalconsequencesof the great
in projecting
ural scientists
and Nagasaki.Theyappearto have understood
eventsat Hiroshima
9 See JohnU. Nef,War and Human Progress(Cambridge,Mass.: Harvard
University
Press,1952).
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QUARTERLY

SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGYAND INTERNATIONALPOLITICS

11

who advocated"one worldor none"that


betterthanthescientists
of a great
evennuclearweaponscannotpersuadea representative
organization.10
vetoin an international
powerto yieldhis country's
why
They saw morereadilythan at least some naturalscientists
co-existence
was likelyto be theorderoftheday forsometimeto
War II worldwas not
come,whytherealchoicein thepost-World
"One Rome or Two Carthages"but "Two Romesor None."
in scientific
advances,secrecycan
In a headlongrace to be first
utility.
onlyhave a short-term
If,however,a shortperiodis enough
then
decisionsof the firstimportance,
irreversible
to implement
forthelongrunwhichfailto takeaccountofthe
recommendations
Not onlytheatomicbombbut
problemare inappropriate.
short-run
harborforthe
the proximity
fuse,radar,LSTs and the artificial
Normandylandingswere t-heproductof what Churchillcalled
are in the
"thewizardwar."The computerand micro-electronics
1960'splayingan analogousrole,in helpingto keep the balanceof
technological
short-run
stable.In all thesecases,by answering
terror
timewas boughtin whichto discoveranswersto longproblems,
runpoliticalproblems.
thatSoviet-American
One shouldat leastexaminethepossibility
on world
in the sciencerace is havinga benigneffect
competition
of themenwhohave orderedthat
politics,whatevertheintentions
thescienceracebe run.It divertsat leastsomeenergiesawayfrom
forthe armsrace itself.Samuel P.
simplypilingup armaments
arms races are
has suggestedthat only quantitative
Huntington
thesciencerace tendsto keep thearmsrace
Certainly
dangerous.1'
thuskeepingeach sidefromfeelingthatit is sufficiently
qualitative,
preparedto resortto trialby battle.Thereis alwaysthe "weapons
system after next" to be made operational before one can ever

to choose
beginto thinkof beingso fullypreparedas deliberately
war. The sciencerace may,however,yield clues as to the contenders'respectivecapabilitieswithsuch greatclaritythata trial
theremay be some
Furthermore,
by battlebecomesunnecessary.
10 See, for example,Bemard Brodie, ed., The AbsoluteWeapon (New
York: Harcourt,Brace and Co., 1946).
11 "Arms Races: Prerequisitesand Results>"in Carl J. Friedrichand
SeymourHarris, eds., Public Policy: Yearbook of the Graduate School of
Harvard University(Cambridge, Mass.: Graduate
Public Administration,
1958), pp. 41-86.
School of Public Administration,
VOLUME

12, NUMBER

1, MARcH- 1968

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12

WILLIAM T. R. Fox

incidentalpeacetimepayoffs.Perhapsthe intensivedevelopment
forinterplanetary
travel,will so transof the fuelcell,ostensibly
forminterborough
travelbetweenthe variouspartsof New York
City as to transform
today'sgray smog and aerial sewer into
tomorrow's
brightblue skies.The thrillof new worldsto conquer
whichthesciencerace bringsintoview,notjusttheworldofouter
the worldof innerspace (here
space but theworldof Antarctica,
on
the
graveof the Moholeproject,
one maypause to shed a tear
whichmighthave told muchabout the Earth'sinterior)and the
may
raceto maketheworld'sdesertsbloom-all thesecompetitions
competition.
takesomeof theheat out of bipolarmilitary
One mustnot overstate
the case. The sciencerace can be deto change.
stabilizingand it can make the statesystemresistant
Even thoughsecrecycan have only a short-term
utilityin the
sciencerace itself,a shortperiodmay be enoughto implement
irreversible
decisionsof the firstimportance.Recommendations
forthelongrunwhichfailto takeaccountoftheshort-run
problem
are inappropriate.
It was a sciencerace whichhas todaymade the one big war
totallyunacceptable,but the sciencerace has neithereliminated
nor solvedproblemsthatin an earlierday seemedto make that
ITus, thesciencerace mayhave promoted
big war worthfighting.
All overtheworldthereare problems
the"deceleration
ofhistory."
too importantto ignore,but not importantenough to cause
each other.So history
and Moscowto chooseto destroy
Washington
slows down,the problemsremain,and some of themgrowdaily
moremenacing.
it may
If the sciencerace has deceleratedone kindof history,
advance
have acceleratedanother.The dizzypace of technological
to the erosionof thephysical,biological,
contributed
has certainly
and culturalresourcesof a planeton which over threebillion
humanbeingslive but on whichonlya fewhundredmillionenjoy
ofnon-recurrable
a standardoflivingmadepossibleby consumption
mineralresources.The sciencerace may be a problemgenerator
and a problempreserver,
especiallyif it has broughtabout what
of generalwar."'2
WalterMillishas called "thehypertrophy
12 This is the titleof the concludingchapterof his Armsand Men (New
York:Putnam,1956).
INTERNATIONAL

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QUARTERLY

SCzENGE,TECHNOLOGY AND INTERNATIONAL POLrrICS

13

The science race, on the otherhand, has sometimessolved


and social scientists.Thus, the twin
problemsfor governments
of "thespyin thesky"and ballisticsea powerhave
developments
intothe struginspection
transformed
theproblemof intemational
regulationof atomic
gle to achieve some kind of international
energy.The firsthas made Sovietsecrecyseemsomewhatless im.
Ballisticsea power,on the otherhand,
portantto the Americans.
has made Americanopennesssomewhatless of an advantageto
have a morenearly
the SovietUnion.Thus the two superpowers
Also,the
to exchangeinformation.
equal interest
in arrangements
easier than counterstrikesare technically
fact thatcounter-city
capabilityratherthanefficiency
forcestrikes
meansthatretaliation
in inspectingdown to the last few concealed atomicweapons
againstthe nuclearaggressor.Some
providesthe trueprotection
technological
advancesmay,of course,exhibitbothaspects.They
may solve one problemwhile creatinganother.Reclaimingthe
world'swastelands,
perhapsin largestpartthroughde-salinization
the de-saltedwater,may posand cheap energyfortransporting
siblygivetheworlda muchneededextradecade or twoin which
to cope withthepopulationexplosion.It also maybe destabilizing.
Questforterritory
seemsto havebecomea muchlesspotentsource
of conflict
withtheworld'smostfertileareas all dividedup; but if
thereare to be new fertileareas,whatreasonis thereto believe
thatneighboring
stateswillfindit easyto agreeon how thesenew
areas are to be divided?
Whetherone looks down one road to disasterat the end of
which is a thermonuclear
Doomsdayor down that otherroad
whichends in a populationexplosion,it is clear thatwe need institutions
timewith
and policiesto shortent-heinnovative-adaptive
changes,someof whichare
respectto scientific
and technological
goingto comeanywayand othersof whichcan be madeto comeif
we chooseto have them.HermanKahn has alreadyled the way
eventsand
in manufacturing
history
of post-explosion
hypothesized
Daniel
futures.'3
moregenerally
in writing
scenariosforalternative
Bell has paintedin broad brushstrokesthe pictureof the post1I On Thermonuclear
War (Princeton,N.J.: PrincetonUniversityPress,
1960); and ThinkingAbout the Unthinkable(New York: Horizon Press,
1962).
VOLUME

12,

NUMBER

1, MARCH

1968

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14

WILLiAM T. R. Fox

We need notbelievethatonlydomesticpolitics
society.14
industrial
society.
will be affected
by the emergenceof thispost-industrial
world
We need notbelievein theutopiandreamof a depoliticized
made possiblebecausesciencehas providedthe way out. Science
race withthetwindisasters
doeshave itsusesin thecontemporary
bomb.Malthushas been proved
oftheatombomband thefertility
wrongnowforalmost200 years,butwithoutthemostcreativeuse
of our scientific
and technological
resources,it will fall to this
to have provedthatboth he and Hobbes were right
generation
afterall.
Sciencedoes beckonus to a new viewof worldpolitics.Thirty
politicalscientistto
yearsago it was possiblefora distinguished
is thfe
studyofwhogetswhat,when,and how."'15
writethat"politics
thatpolitics(includingworldpolitics)is a "zeroThe implication
sumgame"struggle
forpowerorthatthereis an ironfundofvalues
to be contesteddoes not in factdescribeaccuratelythe viewsof
phrase.No living
HaroldLasswell,thecoinerofthewho-gets-what
has a broaderview of t-hepotentialsof political
politicalscientist
man'slot,but the zero-sumgame view of
scienceforimproving
politicswas widelyprevalentthenand has been since.A political
in the1960's,one whohas sincebeen appointedto
writing
scientist
one of the highestposts occupiedby a politicalscientistin the
that of
ExecutiveBranchof the Americanfederalgovernment,
has written,
of Housingand UrbanDevelopment,
UnderSecretary
on
"Todayno nationalpoliticalsystemcan affordto concentrate
I understand
thi'sto mean
and allocativeproblems."'6
distributive
thata modempoliticalsystemincludinga worldpoliticalsystem
must,in the same writer'swords "have the capacityto translate
deengineered
effectively
basic scientific
knowledgeintoworkable,
of at leastthefirstFornationalpoliticalsystems
signand structure."
musthave the
rankingpowersthismeansthat "decision-makers
inassurancethatthe societytheydirectmaintainstechnological
14 "The Post-Industrial
Society,"in Eli Ginsberg,ed., Technologyand
Social Change (New York: Columbia UniversityPress, 1964), pp. 44-59.
Society (I )" in The Public Interest,
See also, "Notes on the Post-Industrial
No. 6 (Winter1967) and (H) in No. 7 (Spring 1967).
15 Harold D. Lasswell, Politics:-Who Gets What, When, How (New
York: McGraw-HillBook Co., Inc., 1936).
Is Robert C. Wood, "Scientistsand Politics: The Rise of an Apolitical
Wright,op. cit.,p. 54.
Elite," in RobertGilpinand Christopher
INTErNATIONAL

STUDIES

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QUARTELY

SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INTERNATIONAL POLIrICS

15

novation at least on a par with its major competitors."For the


world as a whole the minimumrequirementis set by the competition of national systemsnot with each otherbut with nature itself.
A world of plentymay or may not be a world of peace; but unless
certain minimumaspirationsof less advantaged peoples are met,
the prospectsforpeace and orderwill be dim indeed. It will take a
technology tailor-made for developing areas to satisfy these
minimumaspirations.

VOLUME 12, NUMBER

1, MARCH

1968

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