XV Danube - European Conference on Geotechnical Engineering (DECGE 2014)

H. Brandl & D. Adam (eds.)

9-11 September 2014, Vienna, Austria
Paper No. 090

Stabilization of landslide shifts on the basis of reliability and risk

S. Matsiy1, E. Bezuglova1, M. Kolomiets1 
1

Kuban State Agrarian University, Krasnodar, Russia

Abstract. This article discusses the method of assessing slope stability based on a stochastic model. The
probability of occurrence of a landslide in the practice of geotechnical engineering is defined probabilitydeterministic and probabilistic and statistical analysis. This makes it possible to use all the values of physical
and mechanical properties of soils derived shear tests, with study of the possible combination of various
factors. An analysis of landslide activation process at the site of the pipeline service road Russia Turkey at
km 297.5 - km 301 using probabilistic and deterministic calculations revealed the cause of landslide
deformation, identified the missing information engineering-geological surveys, as well as conducted
reliability and risk assessment with random parameters probabilistic calculations of stability and feasibility
comparison of variants of engineering activities
Keywords: Landslide; Reliability; Ris

1 INTRODUCTION
Geotechnical process of formation and development of landslide displacement is considerably more
complicated mathematical models and computational schemes. In reality, we are always dealing with
the uncertainties associated with the variability of soil properties, the imperfection of computational
methods, solving the problem of natural only mechanically, intensity and duration of reason that
caused the landslide, and others. In this regard, a growing focus on sustainability assessment
methods based on stochastic models, correlation analysis, probability theory.

2 RELIABILITY AND RISK

Ensuring reliable operation of the system soil mass building requires consideration of several
factors: the satisfaction of design schemes valid geotechnical conditions, a possible reduction in the
physical and mechanical properties of soils; unfavorable combination of loads and impacts,
operating conditions and characteristics of the soil.
Reliability of the soil mass is understood as the ability to perceive the totality of external
influences within the specified time, which ensures normal operation of buildings [1]. In turn, this
ability depends on the probability and intensity of the negative impacts of geological hazards and
natural processes.
The probability of occurrence of a landslide in the practice of geotechnical engineering is defined
probability-deterministic and probabilistic and statistical analysis [2]. This makes it possible to use
all the values of physical and mechanical properties of soils derived shear tests, with study of the
possible combination of various factors.
Usually probabilistic calculations are based on the Monte Carlo method. Distribution of input and
output parameters obeys a normal distribution of random variables. The results are presented


S. Matsiy, E. Bezuglova, M. Kolomiets / DECGE 2014

statistical indicators: the average value of the stability coefficient Kycp, standard V private variables
and others. Determined by the reliability index E (as an alternative to conventional sustainability
factor ) and the probability of collapse , which is a function of the parameter E [3]:
E

 1

(1)

In formula (1), the numerator shows how the mean value of the stability coefficient is different from
the limit at which the slope becomes unstable. If Kycp<1, the value E negative. The probability of
collapse slope (percentage or fraction) is the probability of obtaining the coefficient of stability
less than unity [3]. Obviously, the variability of soil properties increases the value of .
Based on the results of the probabilistic analysis of the stability of slopes, it becomes possible to
evaluate new landslide risk R [4]:
R = P(A) x (Y) ()

(1)

P(A) frequency of an event, the probability of a hazard (probability of collapse);

(Y) the probability that the expected damage will occur if the danger will happen;
() consequences of the damage that can be expressed by financial (economic risk), or
environmental, relating to the environment (environmental risk) units.
Thus, the risk can be described by the scheme danger consequence and evaluate several
categories, such as: very high, high, medium, low and very low [5]. At the same time, define risk
based on qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative approaches.
Qualitatively assess the risk may be specialists, analyzing the results of visual inspection of the slope
and the available materials research. In semi-quantitative approaches, exploring factors landslide
development process (the geometry of the slope, the history of positive stability, etc.), it is important
to determine the degree of influence of each of them on stability and possible damage. Quantitative
determination of the landslide danger accordingly requires a quantitative assessment of risk factors.
Introduced risk criteria: acceptable as a desired level of risk and optimal (acceptable level) [6] For
specific objects by summing the values of baseline risk and cost of activities proposed to
determine the relative rate risk with the actions, expressed in graphical form [4].

3 ANALYSIS OF AN EMERGENCY ON THE SECTION OF PIPELINE

Object of study refers to the highway pipeline service pipeline Russia Turkey, km 297.5 - km
301. The road is a mound of local clay and loamy soil with crushed stone and gravel. Area belongs
to the southern Trans-Kuban board sloping terraced plains. Relief adjacent to the pipeline territory
tectonic denudation, is a transition to a plain band elevated foothills.
Geological and lithological section presents stratigraphic-genetic systems (QAS): Lower Pleistocene
alluvial deposits (QI); Lower-Middle Pleistocene proluvial-talus deposits (pdQI-II); undifferentiated
Holocene alluvial deposits proluvial overdeepened beams (apQIV); technogenic deposits (tQIVc);
modern biogenic sediments (bQIVc) nameless beams; modern soils (eQIVc). In accordance with GOST
20522-96 and SGK [7] highlighted geotechnical elements (HGE).
Recorded three aquifers: two alluvial confined to the upper and lower parts of the Quaternary terrace
fluidly interconnected, as well as man-made - on track bulk soils and modern biogenic sediments.
In 2004, as a result of activation of landslide process were deformed retaining wall and road
embankment with blade area (Fig. 1). Four sections of the retaining wall, located downstream from
the slope, offset by a landslide down - towards an existing pipeline Russia Turkey Bulk land
pipeline service road was destroyed.



S. Matsiy, E. Bezuglova, M. Kolomiets / DECGE 2014

Figure 1. Landslide site pipeline service road pipeline Russia Turkey at km 297.5 - km 301.

Analysis of survey data, the results of visual inspection and stability calculations revealed that the
occurrence of an emergency situation was the result of a complex of factors:
1. The presence of the jet stream on the slope groundwater, not isolated-represented in
prospecting for local distribution, soak led to the foundation soil retaining wall.
2. The project was not considered the possibility of becoming soaked grounds retaining wall
under the influence of spring water.
3. Waived from the project in the parts of the sequence of stages of construction, the use of
material for backfill behind the retaining wall, doing a project on the side of unforeseen
works.
4. Type of anti-erected buildings did not conform to his work: reinforced concrete gravity
retaining wall blocked the exit focused groundwater discharge area.
Results of deterministic stability calculations showed that in fact at the time of the landslide
displacement strength characteristics of soil had to have approximately twice lower values than those
given in the report on surveys: the stability coefficient obtained > 1,73. In the absence of shear
test results for samples prepared and wetted surface, were made reverse stability calculations will
clarify existing design values.

4 CHOICE OF TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS BASED ON RISK ASSESSMENT

To perform a series of probability calculations, the average values of physical and mechanical
properties of soils and, depending on the range of variability formed their properties, to calculate the
standard deviation SD (spread): HGE-1 (backfill): the weight J = 19,8 N/3, cohesion c = 17,2 P
(SD=3,16), angle of internal friction M = 7,5q (SD=1,05); HGE-4 (hard clay, light): J = 20,4 N/3, c
= 26,0 (SD=4,79), M = 9,2q (SD=1,30); HGE-5 (loam solid): J = 20,1 N/3, c = 15,7 P



S. Matsiy, E. Bezuglova, M. Kolomiets / DECGE 2014

(SD=2,14); M = 17,9q (SD=2,30); HGE-6 (water-saturated sand): J = 19,8 N/3, c = 0,67 P, M =

31,8q; HGE-8 (clay is hard, heavy): J = 19,3 N/3, c = 41,0 P, M = 11,2q; HGE-9 (loam hard,
heavy): J = 21,1 N/3, c = 47,0 P, M = 21,8q.
Used computer software Slope/W (license KubSAU 94573) [3], implementing the Monte Carlo
method. Stability analysis included alternative study engineering protection measures. Figure 2
shows the results of one of the variants of probability calculations: Given the variability of soil
properties obtained statistics on slope stability at the device from the rubble mound with a slope of
1:1.5.
According to the obtained values of the probability of collapse as one of the main parameters of
assessing risk, built schedule risk (Figure 3). At least the graph line summary relative rate risk +
cost (extremum) reflects the optimal risk. Acceptable level of risk will match engineering
activities in which the indicator risk + cost is the lowest value after the optimal risk.
Analysis of risk graph showed the following:
- In the absence of stabilizing landslide risk activities, including damage (repair of the road,
and others), the most significant: the probability of repeated displacement of soil tends to
100%.
- When constructing embankments with 1:1 slope collapse probability of rubble mound itself
also tends to 100%
- Filling the mound of rubble with a slope of 1:1.5 reduces the likelihood of a collapse to 80%.
- When dumping mounds of coarse-ground (approximately) achieved optimal risk.
- Several large amount of total risk has a version of the device in the embankment retaining
structures such as Terramesh. It corresponds to an acceptable risk.
- During the construction of pile construction, combined with drainage and outfall activities
risk tends to zero.

HGE-8

embankments

HGE-6

HGE-5
HGE-1

HGE-8
HGE-9

Length, m
Figure 2. Cross-section area of the slope (mean stability coefficient Kycp = 0,954; smallest value = 0,578;
greatest value = 1,230; standard deviation values = 0,082; reliability index E = -0,811; probability of
collapse = 79,16%; the number of combinations 10000)



S. Matsiy, E. Bezuglova, M. Kolomiets / DECGE 2014

Risk+cost

Cost

Risk

Risk reduction
Improving

the

reliability

Figure 3. Schedule landslide risk

All results of the geotechnical stability and reliability of the calculations gives a mixed assessment of
the state of the object. When taking into account additional factors (priority reliability over cost, see
[8]), the optimal and acceptable risks may be swapped. Selection criteria and the risk remains
with the holder structures (the Customer).
At the landslide site pipeline was made and implemented technical solution corresponding optimal
risk (Figure 4).

5 CONCLUSIONS
1. Landslide displacement of the investigated section of road was a consequence of the complex
influence of factors not accounted for in the design and survey works.
2. Evaluation of reliability and risk allowed to compare the statistical probability calculations
parameters sustainability and feasibility comparison of variants of engineering measures.
3. Optimum level of risk achievable when building structures as landslide mound of coarse-ground.



S. Matsiy, E. Bezuglova, M. Kolomiets / DECGE 2014

Figure 4. Plot pipeline service road pipeline Russia Turkey after the engineering protection

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