Climate Change

globals [
sky-top
;; y coordinate of top row of sky
earth-top
;; y coordinate of top row of earth
temperature ;; overall temperature
]
breed
breed
breed
breed
[rays ray]
[IRs IR]
[heats heat]
[CO2s CO2]
;;
;;
;;
;;
packets
packets
packets
packets
of
of
of
of
sunlight
infrared radiation
heat energy
carbon dioxide
breed [clouds cloud]

clouds-own [cloud-speed cloud-id]
;;
;; Setup Procedures
;;
to setup
clear-all
set-default-shape rays "ray"
set-default-shape IRs "ray"
set-default-shape clouds "cloud"
set-default-shape heats "dot"
set-default-shape CO2s "CO2-molecule"
setup-world
set temperature 12
reset-ticks
end
to setup-world
set sky-top max-pycor - 5
set earth-top 0
ask patches [ ;; set colors for the different sections of the world
if pycor > sky-top [ ;; space
set pcolor scale-color white pycor 22 15
]
if pycor <= sky-top and pycor > earth-top [ ;; sky
set pcolor scale-color blue pycor -20 20
]
if pycor < earth-top
[ set pcolor red + 3 ] ;; earth
if pycor = earth-top ;; earth surface
[ update-albedo ]
]
end
;;
;; Runtime Procedures
;;
to go
ask clouds [ fd cloud-speed ] ; move clouds along
run-sunshine ;; step sunshine
;; if the albedo slider has moved update the color of the "earth surface" patc
hes
ask patches with [pycor = earth-top]
[ update-albedo ]
run-heat ;; step heat
run-IR
;; step IR
run-CO2
tick
end
;; moves CO2 molecules
to update-albedo ;; patch procedure

set pcolor scale-color green albedo 0 1
end
to add-cloud
;; erase clouds and then create new ones, plus one
let sky-height sky-top - earth-top
;; find a random altitude for the clouds but
;; make sure to keep it in the sky area
let y earth-top + (random-float (sky-height - 4)) + 2
;; no clouds should have speed 0
let speed (random-float 0.1) + 0.01
let x random-xcor
let id 0
;; we don't care what the cloud-id is as long as
;; all the turtles in this cluster have the same
;; id and it is unique among cloud clusters
if any? clouds
[ set id max [cloud-id] of clouds + 1 ]
create-clouds 3 + random 20
[
set cloud-speed speed
set cloud-id id
;; all the cloud turtles in each larger cloud should
;; be nearby but not directly on top of the others so
;; add a little wiggle room in the x and ycors
setxy x + random 9 - 4
;; the clouds should generally be clustered around the
;; center with occasional larger variations
y + 2.5 + random-float 2 - random-float 2
set color white
;; varying size is also purely for visualization
;; since we're only doing patch-based collisions
set size 2 + random 2
set heading 90
]
end
to remove-cloud
;; erase clouds and then create new ones, minus one
if any? clouds [
let doomed-id one-of remove-duplicates [cloud-id] of clouds
ask clouds with [cloud-id = doomed-id]
[ die ]
]
end
to run-sunshine
ask rays [
if not can-move? 0.3 [ die ] ;; kill them off at the edge
fd 0.3
;; otherwise keep moving
]
create-sunshine ;; start new sun rays from top
reflect-rays-from-clouds ;; check for reflection off clouds
encounter-earth ;; check for reflection off earth and absorption
end
to create-sunshine
;; don't necessarily create a ray each tick
;; as brightness gets higher make more
if 10 * sun-brightness > random 50 [
create-rays 1 [
set heading 160
set color yellow
;; rays only come from a small area
;; near the top of the world
setxy (random 10) + min-pxcor max-pycor
]
]
end
to reflect-rays-from-clouds
ask rays with [any? clouds-here] [ ;; if ray shares patch with a cloud
set heading 180 - heading ;; turn the ray around
]
end
to encounter-earth
ask rays with [ycor <= earth-top] [
;; depending on the albedo either
;; the earth absorbs the heat or reflects it
ifelse 100 * albedo > random 100
[ set heading 180 - heading ] ;; reflect
[ rt random 45 - random 45 ;; absorb into the earth
set color red - 2 + random 4
set breed heats ]
]
end
to run-heat
;; advances the heat energy turtles
;; the temperature is related to the number of heat turtles
set temperature 0.99 * temperature + 0.01 * (12 + 0.1 * count heats)
ask heats
[
let dist 0.5 * random-float 1
ifelse can-move? dist
[ fd dist ]
[ set heading 180 - heading ] ;; if we're hitting the edge of the world, t
urn around
if ycor >= earth-top [ ;; if heading back into sky
ifelse temperature > 20 + random 40
;; heats only seep out of the earth from a small area
;; this makes the model look nice but it also contributes
;; to the rate at which heat can be lost
and xcor > 0 and xcor < max-pxcor - 8
[ set breed IRs
;; let some escape as IR
set heading 20
set color magenta ]
[ set heading 100 + random 160 ] ;; return them to earth
]
]
end
to run-IR
ask IRs [
if not can-move? 0.3 [ die ]
fd 0.3
if ycor <= earth-top [
;; convert to heat if we hit the earth's surface ag
ain
set breed
rt random
lt random
set color
heats
45
45
red - 2 + random 4
]
if any? CO2s-here
;; check for collision with CO2
[ set heading 180 - heading ]
]
end
to add-CO2 ;; randomly adds 25 CO2 molecules to atmosphere
let sky-height sky-top - earth-top
create-CO2s 25 [
set color green
;; pick a random position in the sky area
setxy random-xcor
earth-top + random-float sky-height
]
end
to remove-CO2 ;; randomly remove 25 CO2 molecules
repeat 25 [
if any? CO2s [
ask one-of CO2s [ die ]
]
]
end
to run-CO2
ask CO2s [
rt random 51 - 25 ;; turn a bit
let dist 0.05 + random-float 0.1
;; keep the CO2 in the sky area
if [not shade-of? blue pcolor] of patch-ahead dist
[ set heading 180 - heading ]
fd dist ;; move forward a bit
]
end
; Copyright 2007 Uri Wilensky.
; See Info tab for full copyright and license.
@#$#@#$#@
GRAPHICS-WINDOW
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setup
Setup
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Global Temperature
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PENS
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add CO2
add-CO2
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remove CO2
remove-CO2
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MONITOR
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NIL
temperature
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add cloud
add-cloud
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OBSERVER
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remove cloud
remove-cloud
NIL
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OBSERVER
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MONITOR
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CO2 amount
count CO2s
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BUTTON
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75
watch a ray
watch one-of rays\nask subject [ pd ]
NIL
1
T
OBSERVER
NIL
NIL
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NIL
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@#$#@#$#@
## WHAT IS IT?
This is a model of energy flow in the earth, particularly heat energy. It shows
the earth as rose colored, and the surface of the planet is represented by a bla
ck strip. Above the strip there is a blue atmosphere and black space at the top.
Clouds and carbon dioxide (CO2) molecules can be added to the atmosphere. The C
O2 molecules represent greenhouse gases that block infrared light that is emitte
d by the earth. Clouds block incoming or outgoing sun rays, influencing the heat
ing up or cooling down of the planet.
## HOW IT WORKS
Yellow arrowheads stream downward representing sunlight energy. Some of the sunl
ight reflects off clouds and more can reflect off the earth's surface.
If sunlight is absorbed by the earth, it turns into a red dot, representing heat
energy. Each dot represents the energy of one yellow sunlight arrowhead. The re
d dots randomly move around the earth, and its temperature is related to the tot
al number of red dots.
Sometimes the red dots transform themselves into infrared (IR) light that heads
toward space, carrying off energy. The probability of a red dot becoming IR ligh
t depends on the earth's temperature. When the earth is cold, few red dots gener
ate IR light; when it is hot, most do. The IR energy is represented by a magenta
arrowhead. Each carries the same energy as a yellow arrowhead and as a red dot.
The IR light goes through clouds but can bounce off CO2 molecules.
There is a relation between the number of red dots in the earth and the temperat
ure of the earth. This is because the earth temperature goes up as the total the
rmal energy is increased. Thermal energy is added by sunlight that reaches the e
arth as well as from infrared (IR) light reflected down to the earth. Thermal en
ergy is removed by IR emitted by the earth. The balance of these determines the
energy in the earth, which is proportional to its temperature.
There are, of course, many simplifications in this model. The earth is not
gle temperature, does not have a single albedo, and does not have a single
capacity. Visible light is somewhat absorbed by CO2 and some IR light does
e off clouds. No model is completely accurate. What is important is that a
a sin
heat
bounc
model
reacts in some ways like the system it is supposed to model. This model does th
at, showing how the greenhouse effect is caused by CO2 and other gases that abso
rb IR.
## HOW TO USE IT
The SUN-BRIGHTNESS slider controls how much sun energy enters the earth's atmosp
here. A value of 1.0 corresponds to our sun. Higher values allow you to see what
would happen if the earth was closer to the sun, or if the sun got brighter.
The ALBEDO slider controls how much of the sun energy hitting the earth is absor
bed.
If the albedo is 1.0, the earth reflects all sunlight. This could happen if the
earth froze, and it is indicated by a white surface. If the albedo is zero, the
earth absorbs all sunlight. This is indicated as a black surface. The earth's al
bedo is about 0.6.
You can add and remove clouds with buttons. Clouds block sunlight but not IR.
You can add and remove greenhouse gases, represented as CO2 molecules. CO2 block
s IR light but not sunlight. The buttons add and subtract molecules in groups of
25 up to 150.
The temperature of the earth is related to the amount of heat in the earth. The
more red dots you see, the hotter it is.
## THINGS TO NOTICE
Watch a single sunlight arrowhead. This is easier if you slow down the model usi
ng the slider at the top of the model. You can also use the WATCH A RAY button.
What happens to the arrowhead when it hits the earth? Describe its later path. D
oes it escape the earth? What happens then? Do all arrowheads follow similar pat
hs?
## THINGS TO TRY
1. Play with the model. Change the albedo and run the model. Add clouds and CO2
to the model and then watch a single sunlight arrowhead. What is the highest ear
th temperature you can produce?
2. Run the model with a bright sun but no clouds and no CO2. What happens to the
temperature? It should rise quickly and then settle down around 50 degrees. Why
does it stop rising? Why does the temperature continue to bounce around? Rememb
er, the temperature reflects the number of red dots in the earth. When the tempe
rature is constant, there are about as many incoming yellow arrowheads as outgoi
ng IR ones. Why?
3. Explore the effect of albedo holding everything else constant. Does increasin
g the albedo increase or decrease the earth temperature? When you experiment, be
sure to run the model long enough for the temperature to settle down.
4. Explore the effect of clouds holding everything else constant.
5. Explore the effect of adding 100 CO2 molecules. What is the cause of the chan
ge you observe? Follow one sunlight arrowhead now.
## EXTENDING THE MODEL
Try to add some other factors influencing the earth's temperature. For example,
you could add patches of vegetation and then see what happens as they are consum
ed for human occupation. Also, you could try to add variable albedo to the model
, instead of having one value for the whole planet. You could have glaciers with
high albedo, and seas with low albedo, and then evaluate what happens when the
glaciers melt into the seas.
## NETLOGO FEATURES
Note that clouds are actually made up of lots of small circular turtles.
## RELATED MODELS
Daisyworld
## CREDITS AND REFERENCES
This model is based on an earlier version created in 2005 by Robert Tinker for t
he TELS project.
## HOW TO CITE
If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include these citati
ons for the model itself and for the NetLogo software:
* Tinker, R. and Wilensky, U. (2007). NetLogo Climate Change model. http://ccl
.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/ClimateChange. Center for Connected Learning a
nd Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.
* Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center for
Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanst
on, IL.
## COPYRIGHT AND LICENSE
Copyright 2007 Uri Wilensky.
![CC BY-NC-SA 3.0](http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-nc-sa/3.0/88x31.png)
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share
Alike 3.0 License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons
.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abb
ott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
Commercial licenses are also available. To inquire about commercial licenses, pl
ease contact Uri Wilensky at uri@northwestern.edu.
@#$#@#$#@
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@#$#@#$#@
NetLogo 5.0.5
@#$#@#$#@
setup add-cloud add-cloud add-cloud repeat 800 [ go ]
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
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Climate Change

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Climate Change

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globals [

breed [clouds cloud]

;; moves CO2 molecules

to update-albedo ;; patch procedure

if ycor <= earth-top [

;; convert to heat if we hit the earth's surface ag

Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60

0 120 15 150 0 180 13 214 20 212 45 166

Rectangle -7500403 true true 30 30 270 270

-7500403 true true 0 0 300

266 215 252 193 210

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