Professional Documents
Culture Documents
May 2010
Table of Contents
Executive Summary......................................................................................................................... 2
Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 2
Summary of Prior Research ............................................................................................................ 3
Methodology................................................................................................................................... 5
Results ............................................................................................................................................. 6
Possible causes of observed valuation anomalies ........................................................................ 10
Further Research........................................................................................................................... 11
Executive Summary
A large body of research exists on the question of market efficiency and the Capital Asset
Pricing Model ("CAPM"). Numerous apparent exceptions to the CAPM have been observed,
with the risk adjusted outperformance of small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks being the most
commonly cited anomaly. The bulk of the research to date on this topic has found excess
returns for stocks below a certain size threshold. In this paper, the authors analyze valuations
in a number of developed markets in Europe and Asia across the market cap spectrum. While
CAPM would lead one to expect a gradual decline in valuations as one looks at smaller and
smaller stocks, the research in this paper shows that valuations do not correlate with company
size in a smooth fashion and that there is a kink point below which companies become
cheaper faster than the CAPM would predict. The authors posit that the valuation anomaly
described by these kink points could help explain the existence of the small-cap performance
anomaly, and that the institutional behavior that probably creates these kink points is difficult
to change, which could help explain why the small cap anomaly has persisted, despite ample
information on the topic.
Introduction
During our 19 years as active managers investing in developed international stock markets
(world ex-US), we have observed, along with many of our competitors, that smaller companies
often appear to be undervalued relative to their larger brethren, even on a risk-adjusted basis.
We have also observed that as such smaller companies grow, either organically, or by
acquisition, the undervaluation often disappears. This often results in strong investment
performance, as the companies share prices appreciate at the combined rate of their earnings
per share growth and the growth in their earnings multiples.
Based on these observations, our hypotheses are 1) that institutional investors ignore stocks
below a certain size and liquidity threshold, thereby creating a systematic valuation anomaly
(and opportunities for patient managers willing to invest the time and energy required to invest
in smaller companies), and 2) that this valuation anomaly, and its eventual correction as
companies grow out of it, may help explain the well documented small-cap performance
anomaly to the CAPM. By investigating and describing key aspects of the valuation anomaly,
we therefore hope to contribute to an improved understanding of the small-cap performance
anomaly, and to lay the groundwork for further efforts to understand the linkage between the
two.
W. Scott Bauman, C. Mitchell Conover and Robert E. Miller, "Growth versus Value and Large-Cap versus SmallCap stocks in International Markets", Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 54, No. 2 (Mar - Apr., 1998), pp. 75-89
2
Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, "Dissecting Anomalies", The Journal of Finance, Vol. LXIII, No. 4 (August
2008), pp. 1653-1678
3
Marvin A. Keene and David R. Peterson, "The Importance of Liquidity as a Factor in Asset Pricing", The Journal of
Financial Research, Vol. XXX, No. 1 (Spring 2007), pp. 91-109
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Harrison Hong, Terrence Lim and Jeffrey C. Stein, "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the
Profitability of Momentum Strategies", The Journal of Finance, Vol. LV, No. 1 (February 2000), pp. 265-195
5
Nicholas Barberis and Richard Thaler, "A Survey of Behavioral Finance", Handbook of the Economics of Finance,
edited by George Constantinides, Milt Harris and Rene Stulz (2002)
6
Joshua M. Pollet and Mungo Wilson, "How Does Size Affect Mutual Fund Behavior"?, The Journal of Finance, Vol.
LXIII, No. 6 (December 2008), pp. 2941-2968
7
Burton G. Malkiel, "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and its Critics", The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17,
No. 1 (Winter 2003), pp. 59-82
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Methodology
In our November 2009 study, we analyzed stock valuations across the market cap spectrum in
seven regions in Europe and Asia where the Kabouter Fund LLC ("the Fund") is active:
We first graphed valuations against market capitalization. The CAPM would predict that this
relationship should be relatively smooth. Smaller and smaller companies are on average, more
and more risky (at the extreme small end of the spectrum, the majority of startups fail and at
the extreme large end of the spectrum the majority of mega caps do not), and the CAPM
therefore predicts that, ceteris paribus, the relationship between size and valuation should be
smooth and upward sloping as companies get larger. Any kinks in this relationship would
therefore have to be considered anomalous.
Secondly, we tried to further analyze the valuation differences between companies of different
sizes by adjusting for the quality of those companies and the volatility of their stock prices, and
in this manner attempted to isolate the portion of the valuation anomaly that is more likely
created by institutional bias alone. To remove quality and volatility differences between
companies from the equation as much as possible, we therefore took the following four steps:
1. We compared valuation metrics (price/book, price/earnings and EV/EBITDA) across a
number of ranges of market capitalizations in each market -- Under $100 million, $100
million to $250 million, $250 million to $500 million, $500 million to $1 billion, $1 billion
to $5 billion, $5 billion to $10 billion, and above $10 billion;
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Results
Our research consistently showed the presence of Kink Points below which valuations, as
measured by Price to Book Ratio dropped off steeply. This is illustrated in Exhibit 1 using data
from November 2009 for Kabouter's "Asia Ex-Japan Region", which includes Hong Kong,
Singapore, Australia and New Zealand.
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Kink Points
3.0
2.43
2.5
Price
to
Book
2.0
1.55
1.5
1.23
1.04
1.0
0.39
0
Less than
$250 million to $500 million $1 billion to
to $1 billion $3 billion
$250 million $500 million
$3 billion to $5 billion to
$5 billion
$10 billion
Market Capitalization
Source: Bloomberg; Kabouter Management LLC
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More than
$10 billion
Exhibit 2
Kink Points -- Asia Ex-Japan
Includes Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand
As of November 2009
(in US Dollars)
Kink Point
3.0
2.43
2.5
Price
to
Book
2.23
2.30
2.06
2.0
1.58
1.30
1.19
1.5
1.55
1.23
1.04
1.0
0.48
0.39
0
$250 million to $500 million $1 billion to
Less than
to $1 billion $3 billion
$250 million $500 million
$3 billion to $5 billion to
$5 billion
$10 billion
Market Capitalization
Actual Price to Book
Predicted Price to Book (Using Kabouter risk estimator)
Source: Bloomberg; Kabouter Management LLC
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More than
$10 billion
Exhibit 3
Kink Points by Region
As of November 2009
(in US Dollars)
Region
Countries
Number of
Companies
Kink Point
Price to Book below this point
drops more steeply:
Scandinavia
Sweden, Denmark,
Finland, Norway,
Iceland
1,050
$500 million
Western Europe
France, Belgium,
Netherlands,
Luxembourg, Ireland
1,195
$250 million
Central Europe
Germany, Austria,
Switzerland
1,488
Southern Europe
Portugal, Italy,
Greece, Spain
United Kingdom
UK
1,727
$1 billion
Japan
Japan
2,327
$250 million
Asia Ex-Japan
3,528
$500 million
743
12,058
Source: Bloomberg; Kabouter Management LLC
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$500 million
Further Research
It would be interesting to see how the data changes over time. Also, it might be productive to
find ways to document how smaller companies are "re-rated" as they move up to mid-cap and
large-cap status such that re-rating theory can be shown to be responsible for a meaningful
portion of the small-cap performance anomaly. One way to examine this might be to follow
those mid-cap and large-cap stocks that were publicly traded when their size was below the
Kink Point in their region, and examine whether they were re-rated as they grew.
Another possible topic for further research might be to examine the causes for the Kink Point at
the larger end of the scale, whereby mega-cap stocks are undervalued relative to large-cap
stocks in certain markets. We believe these Kink Points may also be caused by institutional
behavior, specifically by the behavior of hedge fund and other active managers who find that
their clients are somewhat reluctant to pay more than index fund fees for strategies that use
mega caps. Tracking the correlation between the emergence of the mega-cap discount in these
markets and the hedge fund boom might be interesting.
Finally, this paper dealt with specific developed markets in Europe and Asia. It might be
interesting to repeat the study in the USA, Canada and even in emerging and frontier markets.
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Kink Points
2.5
2.24
2.0
Price
to
Book
1.92
1.73
1.61
1.5
1.35
1.61
1.39
1.30
1.33
1.0
1.23
1.39
1.16
0.85
0.5
0.74
0
Less than
$250 million to $500 million $1 billion to
to $1 billion $3 billion
$250 million $500 million
$3 billion to $5 billion to
$5 billion
$10 billion
Market Capitalization
Actual Price to Book
Predicted Price to Book (Using Kabouter risk estimator)
Source: Bloomberg; Kabouter Management LLC
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More than
$10 billion
Kink Point
2.0
1.40
1.5
Price
to
Book
1.34
1.32
1.34
1.29
0.93
1.0
1.36
1.08
1.09
1.09
1.06
0.95
0.61
0.5
0.51
0
Less than
$250 million to $500 million $1 billion to
to $1 billion $3 billion
$250 million $500 million
$3 billion to $5 billion to
$5 billion
$10 billion
Market Capitalization
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More than
$10 billion
Kink Point
2.2
1.92
1.7
Price
to
Book
1.45
1.26
1.2
1.27
1.23
1.11
0.7
1.67
1.27
1.20
0.91
0.41
0.35
0.30
0.28
0.2
0
Less than
$250 million to $500 million $1 billion to
to $1 billion $3 billion
$250 million $500 million
$3 billion to $5 billion to
$5 billion
$10 billion
Market Capitalization
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More than
$10 billion
Kink Points
1.5
1.41
1.40
1.22
1.41
1.2
Price
to
Book
1.14
0.88
0.9
1.01
0.74
0.76
0.52
0.6
0.57
0.28
0.3
0.44
0.22
0
$3 billion to
Market Capitalization
Less than
$250 million to $500 million $1 billion to
to $1 billion $3 billion
$250 million $500 million
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$5 billion
$5 billion to
$10 billion
More than
$10 billion
Kink Point
2.5
2.5
2.21
2.08
2.0
2.0
Price
to
Book
2.04
1.88
2.04
1.76
1.5
1.5
1.36
1.56
1.50
1.0
1.0
0.94
1.07
0.90
0.49
0.5
0.5
0.38
00.0
$250 million to $500 million $1 billion to
Less than
to $1 billion $3 billion
$250 million $500 million
$3 billion to $5 billion to
$5 billion
$10 billion
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More than
$10 billion
Kink Points
0.6
0.48
0.49
0.5
Price
to
Book
0.41
0.38
0.41
0.32
0.29
0.27
0.4
0.30
0.23
0.28
0.28
0.20
0.3
0.15
0.2
0
$250 million to $500 million $1 billion to
Less than
to $1 billion $3 billion
$250 million $500 million
$3 billion to $5 billion to
$5 billion
$10 billion
Market Capitalization
Actual Price to Book
Predicted Price to Book (Using Kabouter risk estimator)
Source: Bloomberg; Kabouter Management LLC
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More than
$10 billion
Contact:
Linda Choi
Chief Operating Officer
Kabouter Management LLC
1 East Wacker Drive, Suite 2505
Chicago, IL 60606
Tel: (1-312) 546-3091
Fax: (1-312) 546-4260
E-mail: linda@kabouterfund.com
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