MEDIA RELEASE 
(February 17, 2010)

FROM: Ronald D. Holmes

President and Managing Fellow

RE: Pulse Asia’s January 2010 Pre-election Survey on

Automated Election System (AES) and Other Election-Related Issues

As part of our academic responsibility, we are disseminating part of the findings

of the latest pre-election survey conducted by Pulse Asia during the period 22 to 26
January 2010.

In addition to inquiring into Filipinos’ choices for president, vice-president, and

senator, this pre-election survey also looks into the extent of Filipinos’ knowledge
regarding the AES, as well as their sentiments concerning the COMELEC’s preparedness
to implement the AES and other election-related matters. In May 2010, the country is
going to have its first automated national elections. However, various developments have
led some sectors to question the certainty of the automation of the coming polls amidst
delays in the delivery of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines and the
training of public school teachers for the Automated Election System (AES), among
others. Despite these setbacks, the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) continues to
assure the public that it is adequately prepared to implement the AES and should the
automation of vote counting not be possible for whatever reason, it is ready to revert to a
manual system.
 For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a ballot that
conforms to the COMELEC sample prior to the conduct of the January 2010 pre-
elections survey. Measuring 8” x 29”, the names of the candidates for the national posts
were listed alphabetically as ordered in the official list released by the COMELEC prior
to this survey's field work. Respondents were asked to indicate their preference on the
ballot based on the instructions written.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years

old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a ± 2% error margin at the 95%
confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey
have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: ± 6% for Metro Manila, ±4%
for the rest of Luzon and ±5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field
interviews for this project were conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010. (Those
interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and
sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of
the pre-tested questions actually used.)

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and
conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In
keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group
influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own
without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse
Asia President at 09189335497 or 9945602.
 Pulse Asia’s January 2010 Pre-Election Survey:
Media Release on the Automated Election System (AES)
and Other Election-Related Issues
17 February 2010

Most Filipinos (71%) know little/nothing at all about the AES

The country is set to have its first automated national elections in May 2010.
Unfortunately, barely four months before this historical electoral exercise, a sizeable
majority of Filipinos (71%) still has little/no knowledge at all about the new system, with
46% saying they know little about it and 25% admitting not knowing anything about the
AES. Little/no knowledge about the AES is reported by majorities in the different
geographic areas (62% to 80%) and socio-economic groupings (61% to 79%). In contrast,
only 8% of Filipinos know a great deal about the AES while 20% know enough about it.
Great/sufficient knowledge about the new system is more pronounced in Metro Manila
and Class ABC (both at 39%) than in the other geographic areas and socio-economic
classes. (See Table 1)

Table 1
KNOWLEDGE OF THE AUTOMATED ELECTION SYSTEM
October 2009 and January 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

The Commission on Elections or COMELEC and SMARTMATIC-TIM are continuously preparing for the
implementation of the AUTOMATED ELECTION SYSTEM or AES. Part of the AES involves changing the
ballot and the manner by which votes will be counted.

How would you describe the amount of knowledge you

have regarding the Automated Election System (AES)? LOCATION CLASS
(Base: Registered Voters, 100%) RP NCR BL VIS MIN ABC D E

Jan 10 8 12 8 12 4 16 8 7
A great deal of knowledge
Oct 09 13 11 17 8 12 17 12 15
Jan 10 20 27 23 16 17 23 23 14
Not a great deal, but a sufficient amount
Oct 09 26 35 26 20 25 36 26 23
Jan 10 46 43 48 48 43 45 46 47
A little knowledge
Oct 09 40 33 41 47 36 31 42 38
Jan 10 25 19 21 23 37 16 22 32
Almost none or no knowledge at all
Oct 09 21 21 16 26 27 17 20 24

Patuloy na isinasagawa ng Commission on Elections (COMELEC) at ng Smartmatic-TIM ang preparasyon para sa pagsasakutaparan ng
Automated Election System o AES. Bahagi ng AES ang pagbabago ng balota at ang paraan ng pagbilang ng mga boto.
Q. Paano ninyo ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa AUTOMATED ELECTION SYSTEM O AES?

At the national level, more Filipinos reported having little knowledge about the
AES in January 2010 than October 2009 (46% versus 40%). On the other hand, fewer
Filipinos are currently saying that they have either a great deal or sufficient knowledge
about the AES than in October 2009 (8% versus 13% and 20% versus 26%, respectively).
Across geographic areas, there is an increase in the percentage of Metro Manilans who
know little about the AES (+10 percentage points) and in Mindanao, more are now
saying they know practically nothing about the AES (+10 percentage points). In Class

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ABC, there is a sizeable increase in the percentage of those with little knowledge (+14
percentage points) and a decline in those with enough knowledge (-13 percentage points)
during the period October 2009 and January 2010.

Majorities trust the country’s public school teachers to act impartially as members
of the Board of Election Inspectors (BEI) and believe in their capability to manage
the AES in the coming elections (63% and 66%, respectively)

The predominant sentiment among Filipinos is one of trust in the impartiality of

public school teachers in their performance of their role as BEI members (63%) and
belief in their capability to manage the AES in May 2010 (66%). These views are shared
by majorities across geographic areas (62% to 72%) and socio-economic groupings (63%
to 72%). Negligible percentages express contrary opinions (6% to 7%) while indecision
is articulated by 28% to 30% of Filipinos. These are basically the same numbers obtained
by Pulse Asia in October 2009. Figures in the different geographic areas and socio-
economic classes are essentially unchanged between October 2009 and January 2010.
The only exception is the increase in the percentage of Mindanaoans who believe in the
capability of teachers to manage the AES (+11 percentage points). (See Table 2 and 3)

Table 2
IMPARTIALITY OF TEACHERS AS MEMBERS OF BOARD OF ELECTION INSPECTORS (BEI)
October 2009 and January 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

Public school teachers function as members of the Board of Election Inspectors.

In this line of work, do you TRUST or DON'T TRUST the

impartiality of teachers in the performance of this duty? LOCATION CLASS
(Base: Registered Voters, 100%) RP NCR BL VIS MIN ABC D E

Jan 10 63 62 63 66 62 72 62 63
Trust
Oct 09 64 62 68 67 55 65 66 60
Jan 10 30 28 33 24 29 21 31 29
Undecided
Oct 09 29 31 27 25 33 29 28 30
Jan 10 7 10 4 10 9 8 7 9
Distrust
Oct 09 7 7 4 7 12 6 6 10

Q. Ang mga pampublikong guro ang tumatayo bilang mga miyembro ng Board of Election Inspectors. Sa gawaing ito, kayo
po ba ay…READ OUT (SHOWCARD), sa pagiging patas ng mga guro sa pagganap ng tungkuling ito?

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 Table 3
CAPABILITY OF TEACHERS TO MANAGE THE AUTOMATED ELECTION SYSTEM
October 2009 and January 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

In this line of work, do you... BELIEVE OR DON'T BELIEVE

that teachers have the capability to manage the
Automated Election System in the coming elections? LOCATION CLASS
(Base: Registered Voters, 100%) RP NCR BL VIS MIN ABC D E

Jan 10 66 69 63 70 67 72 65 67
Believe
Oct 09 65 60 67 71 56 59 66 64
Jan 10 28 24 32 21 27 21 29 27
Undecided
Oct 09 29 32 28 22 34 31 29 27
Jan 10 6 8 5 9 6 7 6 6
Don’t believe
Oct 09 7 8 4 7 10 10 5 9

Q. Kayo po ba ay… READ OUT (SHOWCARD), na may kakayanan ang mga guro na mangasiwa sa Automated Election System sa
darating na halalan?

About one out of every two Filipinos (52%) thinks the Commission on Elections
(COMELEC) is prepared to effectively implement the AES in May 2010

Despite the delay in the delivery of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS)
machines and other setbacks faced by the COMELEC in connection with the automation
of the coming elections, a small majority of Filipinos (52%) still believes in the
preparedness of the poll body to effectively implement the new system. This view is
articulated by big pluralities to sizeable majorities across geographic areas (44% to 67%)
and socio-economic groupings (50% to 52%). In the meantime, 19% of Filipinos express
the opposite view while 30% are ambivalent on the matter. (See Table 4)

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 Table 4
PREPAREDNESS OF COMELEC TO EFFECTIVELY IMPLEMENT
THE AUTOMATED ELECTION SYSTEM (AES)
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

There were developments in the past weeks that affected the preparations of the COMELEC for
the coming elections such as the order of the Supreme Court extending the registration period for
new voters, the delay in the delivery of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines, and the
delay in the planned training of teachers for the AES. Despite these developments, COMELEC
maintained that it is prepared to conduct the elections in an orderly manner, particularly the
implementation of the AES.

PREPAREDNESS OF COMELEC TO
EFFECTIVELY IMPLEMENT THE AES LOCATION CLASS
(Base: Registered Voters, 100%) RP NCR BL VIS MIN ABC D E

PREPARED 52 44 47 67 50 50 52 52
Truly prepared 17 12 14 29 15 12 16 20
Somewhat prepared 34 32 33 38 35 38 35 32
Cannot say if prepared or not prepared 30 25 34 20 32 24 29 32
NOT PREPARED 19 31 18 13 18 26 19 16
Somewhat not prepared 15 29 14 8 14 21 16 12
Truly not prepared 4 2 4 4 4 5 4 4

May mga kaganapan nitong mga nakaraang linggo na nakaapekto sa paghahanda ng COMELEC para sa darating na eleksyon tulad ng
kautusan ng Korte Suprema na i-extend ang pagpaparehistro ng mga bagong botante, pagkaantala ng pagdeliver ng mga Precinct Count
Optical Scan o PCOS, at ang pagka-antala sa planong pagsasanay ng mga guro para sa AES. Sa kabila ng mga kaganapang ito,
pinaninindigan ng COMELEC na ito ay handang maidaos nang maayos ang halalan, partikular ang pagsasakatuparan ng AES.
Q38. Sa inyong palagay, ang COMELEC ba ay… (SHOWCARD) para maisakatuparan nang epektibo ang AES sa darating na halalan?

Visayans are most inclined to believe in the preparedness of the COMELEC

(67%) while Metro Manilans are most likely to have a contrary opinion (31%). In the
meantime, indecision levels across geographic areas range from 20% in the Visayas to
34% in the rest of Luzon while in the different socio-economic groupings, figures vary
from 24% in Class ABC to 32% in Class E.

Filipinos who think the May 2010 polls will be clean and its results credible due to
automation greatly outnumber those who don't (48% versus 14%); however, a
considerable number (37%) remains ambivalent on the matter

For nearly one in two Filipinos (48%), the results of the May 2010 elections will
be credible because of automated vote counting – a view articulated by big pluralities to
sizeable majorities in most geographic areas (i.e., including sub-regions) and socio-
economic classes (44% to 63%). However, almost the same percentages of those in the
rest of Luzon (44% versus 40%) and particularly in Southern Luzon (38% versus 43%),
Region 11 (46% versus 39%), and Class ABC (43% versus 36%) either share the same
sentiment or are undecided on the matter. At the national level, 37% cannot say whether

6
or not the results of the coming elections will be credible due to the automated counting
of votes while 14% have a negative view. (See Table 5)

Table 5
AGREEMENT / DISAGREEMENT WITH TEST STATEMENT:
"The May 2010 elections will be clean and the results credible for the citizenry
because the counting of votes will be automated."
October 2008 to January 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

"The May 2010 elections will be clean and

the results credible for the citizenry because
the counting of votes will be automated." LOCATION CLASS
(Base: Registered Voters, 100%) RP NCR BL VIS MIN ABC D E
Jan 10 48 45 44 59 48 43 46 53
Agree Oct 09 40 33 36 46 48 31 39 47
Aug 09 40 33 40 46 38 33 40 41

Jan 10 37 33 40 32 37 36 37 35
Undecided Oct 09 43 46 42 45 40 49 44 37
Aug 09 42 45 40 41 44 49 41 41

Jan 10 14 21 16 8 13 20 15 10
Disagree Oct 09 16 20 21 9 11 20 16 15
Aug 09 18 22 19 13 17 17 18 18

Sa pamamagitan po ng board na ito (show rating board), pakisabi lamang kung kayo ay LUBOS NA SUMASANG-AYON, SUMASANG-AYON,
MAAARING SUMASANG-AYON AT MAAARING HINDI SUMASANG-AYON, HINDI SUMASANG-AYON O LUBOS NA HINDI SUMASANG-AYON?
Q. Malaking gulo ang mangyayari kapag ang eleksyon ng 2010 ay hindi ginanap.

Notes: (1) % Agree = % Very Much Agree plus % Agree; % Disagree = % Disagree plus % Very Much Disagree
(2) Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding off or to Don't Know and Refuse responses.

Agreement with the credibility of election results because of automated vote

counting is more pronounced in January 2010 than October 2009 (48% versus 40%)
while indecision becomes less manifest during this period (37% versus 43%). Similar
patterns may be observed in Metro Manila, as well as the Visayas and especially Central
Visayas where levels of agreement increases (+12 to +23 percentage points) and
indecision figures decline (-13 to -20 percentage points). There is also a sizeable increase
in agreement and a corresponding drop in indecision in Class ABC (+12 and -13
percentage points, respectively).

A small majority of Filipinos (54%) expects trouble to ensue if the results of the
May 2010 elections will not be clean and credible; however, in the event that election
results are not seen as clean and credible by the citizenry, 58% will support but not
join any protest actions that may take place

For most Filipinos (54%), trouble will result if the outcome of the coming
elections is not considered clean and credible by the people. This sentiment is shared by
near to big majorities across geographic areas (i.e., including sub-regions) and socio-
economic classes (47% to 74% and 52% to 65%, respectively), with those in Metro
Manila being most inclined to express agreement with this view. An exception is
Mindanao, where about the same percentages either expect trouble or express indecision
on the matter (38% to 43% versus 39% to 49%). Meanwhile, 33% of Filipinos are

7
 ambivalent on this issue and 12% do not think widespread protests will take place in case
the results of the May 2010 polls are questionable. Indecision on the matter is most
pronounced in Regions 9, 12, and the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (49%)
and least manifest in Metro Manila (17%). Additionally, levels of disagreement range
from 4% in Western Visayas to 20% in Eastern Visayas. (See Table 6)

Table 6
OTHER 2010 ELECTION ISSUES
January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)

Base: Registered Voters, 100%

"Much trouble or widespread protests will

ensue if the results of the coming elections LOCATION
will not be clean and credible, for example, MINDANAO
BALANCE LUZON VISAYAS
because of problems in the counting of RP NCR Reg 9, 12 Reg 10,
votes for president and other national officials." Total North South Total West Central East Total ARMM CARAGA Reg 11

Agree 54 74 53 54 53 59 62 62 47 41 42 38 43
Undecided 33 17 33 29 37 28 31 22 32 45 49 43 39
Disagree 12 9 13 16 10 12 4 16 20 11 9 8 18
Don't Know 1 0 1 0 1 1 3 0 2 3 0 10 0

If the results of the coming elections will

not be clean and credible, will you…?

Will support and join the protest 7 10 7 8 6 6 5 7 8 7 7 6 9

Will support but will not join the protests 58 66 60 57 62 54 49 55 60 55 56 55 53
Will not support and will not join any protests 34 24 33 35 32 39 46 37 32 38 37 39 38

Sa pamamagitan po ng board na ito (show rating board), pakisabi lamang kung kayo ay LUBOS NA SUMASANG-AYON, SUMASANG-AYON,
MAAARING SUMASANG-AYON AT MAAARING HINDI SUMASANG-AYON, HINDI SUMASANG-AYON O LUBOS NA HINDI SUMASANG-AYON?
Q41. Malaking gulo o malawakang protesta ang magaganap kapag hindi naging malinis at kapanipaniwala ang resulta ng darating na eleksyon,
halimbawa dahil sa problema sa pagbilang ng boto para sa posisyon ng presidente at ng iba pang pambansang opisyal.
Q42. Kung hindi naging malinis at kapani-paniwala ang resulta ng darating na halalan, kayo po ba ay… [SHOWCARD]

Notes: (1) % Big possibility = % Very big plus % Big possibility; % Small/No Possibility = % Small plus % Very small/No possibility
(2) % Agree = % Very Much Agree plus % Agree; % Disagree = % Disagree plus % Very Much Disagree
(3) Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding off or to Don't Know and Refuse responses.

If the election results will not be clean and credible, most Filipinos (58%) will
support but not join any protests or demonstrations that may arise. Less than one in ten
(7%) will support and join such actions while 34% will not support and not join any
protest actions. The prevailing sentiment in practically all geographic areas (i.e.,
including sub-regions) and every socio-economic grouping (53% to 66%) is one of
support but not direct participation in protest actions. An exception is Western Visayas,
where about the same percentages will either support but not join (49%) or will not
support and not join (46%) such protest actions or demonstrations.