5/31/2015

HenryA.Kissinger

HENRYA.KISSINGER
ARTICLES
AVOIDING AU.S.CHINACOLDWAR
BYHENRYA.KISSINGER

TheWashingtonPostJanuary14,2011
TheupcomingsummitbetweentheAmericanandChinesepresidentsistotakeplacewhileprogressisbeing
madeinresolvingmanyoftheissuesbeforethem,andapositivecommuniqueisprobable.Yetbothleaders
alsofaceanopinionamongelitesintheircountriesemphasizingconflictratherthancooperation.
MostChineseIencounteroutsideofgovernment,andsomeingovernment,seemconvincedthattheUnited
StatesseekstocontainChinaandtoconstrictitsrise.Americanstrategicthinkersarecallingattentionto
China'sincreasingglobaleconomicreachandthegrowingcapabilityofitsmilitaryforces.
Caremustbetakenlestbothsidesanalyzethemselvesintoselffulfillingprophecies.Thenatureof
globalizationandthereachofmoderntechnologyobligetheUnitedStatesandChinatointeractaroundthe
world.AColdWarbetweenthemwouldbringaboutaninternationalchoosingofsides,spreadingdisputesinto
internalpoliticsofeveryregionatatimewhenissuessuchasnuclearproliferation,theenvironment,energy
andclimaterequireacomprehensiveglobalsolution.
Conflictisnotinherentinanation'srise.TheUnitedStatesinthe20thcenturyisanexampleofastate
achievingeminencewithoutconflictwiththethendominantcountries.NorwastheoftencitedGerman
Britishconflictinevitable.ThoughtlessandprovocativepoliciesplayedaroleintransformingEuropean
diplomacyintoazerosumgame.
SinoU.S.relationsneednottakesuchaturn.Onmostcontemporaryissues,thetwocountriescooperate
adequatelywhatthetwocountrieslackisanoverarchingconceptfortheirinteraction.DuringtheColdWar,a
commonadversarysuppliedthebond.Commonconceptshavenotyetemergedfromthemultiplicityofnew
tasksfacingaglobalizedworldundergoingpolitical,economicandtechnologicalupheaval.
Thatisnotasimplematter.Foritimpliessubordinatingnationalaspirationstoavisionofaglobalorder.
NeithertheUnitedStatesnorChinahasexperienceinsuchatask.Eachassumesitsnationalvaluestobe
bothuniqueandofakindtowhichotherpeoplesnaturallyaspire.Reconcilingthetwoversionsof
exceptionalismisthedeepestchallengeoftheSinoAmericanrelationship.
America'sexceptionalismfindsitnaturaltoconditionitsconducttowardothersocietiesontheiracceptanceof
Americanvalues.MostChineseseetheircountry'srisenotasachallengetoAmericabutasheraldingareturn
tothenormalstateofaffairswhenChinawaspreeminent.IntheChineseview,itisthepast200yearsof
relativeweaknessnotChina'scurrentresurgencethatrepresentanabnormality.
Americahistoricallyhasactedasifitcouldparticipateinorwithdrawfrominternationalaffairsatwill.Inthe
ChineseperceptionofitselfastheMiddleKingdom,theideaofthesovereignequalityofstateswasunknown.
Untiltheendofthe19thcentury,Chinatreatedforeigncountriesasvariouscategoriesofvassals.Chinanever
encounteredacountryofcomparablemagnitudeuntilEuropeanarmiesimposedanendtoitsseclusion.A
foreignministrywasnotestablisheduntil1861,andthenprimarilyfordealingwithcolonialistinvaders.
Americahasfoundmostproblemsitrecognizedassoluble.China,initshistoryofmillennia,cametobelieve
thatfewproblemshaveultimatesolutions.AmericahasaproblemsolvingapproachChinaiscomfortable
managingcontradictionswithoutassumingtheyareresolvable.
Americandiplomacypursuesspecificoutcomeswithsinglemindeddetermination.Chinesenegotiatorsare
morelikelytoviewtheprocessascombiningpolitical,economicandstrategicelementsandtoseekoutcomes
viaanextendedprocess.AmericannegotiatorsbecomerestlessandimpatientwithdeadlocksChinese
negotiatorsconsiderthemtheinevitablemechanismofnegotiation.Americannegotiatorsrepresentasociety
thathasneversufferednationalcatastropheexcepttheCivilWar,whichisnotviewedasaninternational
experience.Chinesenegotiatorscannotforgetthecenturyofhumiliationwhenforeignarmiesexactedtribute
fromaprostrateChina.Chineseleadersareextremelysensitivetotheslightestimplicationofcondescension
andareapttotranslateAmericaninsistenceaslackofrespect.
NorthKoreaprovidesagoodexampleofdifferencesinperspective.Americaisfocusedontheproliferationof
nuclearweapons.China,whichinthelongrunhasmoretofearfromnuclearweaponstherethanwe,in
additionemphasizespropinquity.Itisconcernedabouttheturmoilthatmightfollowifpressureson
nonproliferationleadtothedisintegrationoftheNorthKoreanregime.Americaseeksaconcretesolutiontoa
specificproblem.Chinaviewsanysuchoutcomeasamidpointinaseriesofinterrelatedchallenges,withno
finiteend,aboutthefutureofNortheastAsia.Forrealprogress,diplomacywithKoreaneedsabroaderbase.
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5/31/2015

HenryA.Kissinger

AmericansfrequentlyappealtoChinatoproveitssenseof"internationalresponsibility"bycontributingtothe
solutionofaparticularproblem.ThepropositionthatChinamustproveitsbonafidesisgratingtoacountry
thatregardsitselfasadjustingtomembershipinaninternationalsystemdesignedinitsabsenceonthebasis
ofprogramsitdidnotparticipateindeveloping.
WhileAmericapursuespragmaticpolicies,Chinatendstoviewthesepoliciesaspartofageneraldesign.
Indeed,ittendstofindarationaleforessentiallydomesticallydriveninitiativesintermsofanoverallstrategy
toholdChinadown.
Thetestofworldorderistheextenttowhichthecontendingcanreassureeachother.IntheAmerican
Chineserelationship,theoverridingrealityisthatneithercountrywilleverbeabletodominatetheotherand
thatconflictbetweenthemwouldexhausttheirsocieties.Cantheyfindaconceptualframeworktoexpress
thisreality?AconceptofaPacificcommunitycouldbecomeanorganizingprincipleofthe21stcenturyto
avoidtheformationofblocs.Forthis,theyneedaconsultativemechanismthatpermitstheelaborationof
commonlongtermobjectivesandcoordinatesthepositionsofthetwocountriesatinternationalconferences.
Theaimshouldbetocreateatraditionofrespectandcooperationsothatthesuccessorsofleadersmeeting
nowcontinuetoseeitintheirinteresttobuildanemergingworldorderasajointenterprise.
Thewriterwassecretaryofstatefrom1973to1977.
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