PS21 Report: The ISIS War: Where Are We?

ShortageofantitankrocketskeytoIraqidefeatatRamadi
Morebroadly,ISISseenstrugglinginIraq,dominatinginSyria
Littleunitybetweenregionalpowersamidtheirownbroaderstruggles
Littleornolocalappetite,enthusiasmforUStroopdeployment
IraqfirststrategybesthopeofunderminingISISnarrative
ISISvictoriesatRamadi,inSyriamajorpropagandawins
IncreasedUSpoliticizationofIraqissuecouldfuelISISnarrative

OnWednesday,May27,2014,theProjectforStudyofthe21stCentury(PS21)heldadiscussionon
thewallwithIslamicState.TheeventtookplaceintheThomsonReutersofficesinWashingtonDC.
Keytakeawaysfromthediscussionarebelow.
Afulltranscriptcanbefoundhere.
Participants:
MilenaRodban(Moderator):Independentgeopoliticalriskconsultant.PS21globalfellow.
DouglasOllivant,formerU.S.Armyofficer,Iraqdirector,USNationalSecurityCouncil20089.Fellow,
NewAmerica
RashaElass:PS21globalfellow.FormerlyreporterforReuters,NPRandothersfromDamascus.
AhmedAli:seniorfellowattheEducationforPeaceinIraqCentre(EPIC)

Keytakeaways:
TheISISvictoryinRamadiwasaseriouslocaldefeatbutthegeneraltrendinIraqmightstillhave
turnedthegroup,atleastwithinIraq.
YoucannotseewhathappenedinRamadiasthedefiningepisodeofthewar,saidAli.Thisisalong
termbattleItsamixedpicture.
OneofthereasonsISISfocusedsostronglyonRamadiwastheneedtoreversethenarrativeofits
declineinIraq.Therewerealsonotablelocalfailings,particularlyintheprovisionofantitank
rockets.
ISISisnotwinning,saidOllivant.ISISislosing.Infact,itislosingdecisivelyinIraq.Syriaisan
entirelydifferentstory.Itsincreasingnumberofaffiliatesistroubling(but)whenitloseslargeportions
ofIraq,itwillbeverydifficulttokeepitsnarrativeup.
InSyria,however,Isisremainsclearlyintheascendantnotleastbecauseitsenemiesotherrebel
groupsandtheAssadgovernmentremainmorefocusedoneachother.
ISISinSyriaiswinning,saidElass.Itscontrollingmaybe50%ofthecountry.Ithinkitsreally
dangeroustounderestimateISIS..
DeployinglargenumbersofUStroopsmightnotbetheanswerandisnotparticularlywantedin
Iraq,evenlessinSyria.
ImnotagainstdeployingUStroopsifitstherightthingtodo,Alisaid.Butstrategically,atthis
moment,itwillnothelpus.ItwillnotworkinthelongtermandIraqisarecapableofdoingitandthey
reallyhavetodoit.
TheimportantthingtorememberaboutadditionalUStroopsinIraqisthattheUShasnotofferedtosend
themanIraqhasnotaskedforthem,saidOllivant.ThereareverysignificantactionswithintheIraqi
politywouldseethereturnofUStroops,Ibelieve,forwardaircontrollersandspecialforcesupfrontwith
thetroopsasthefirststeptowardsthereoccupationofIraq.Thesearepeoplewhoarecurrentlyfighting
againstISIS.
ThereisstillagenerallackofunityamongstthosefightingISISwithmostmembersasidefromthe
USandIraqmorefocusedonlocalregionalrivalries.

NothingisgoingtohappentomaketheTurks,forexample,caremoreaboutISISthantheydoaboutYasir
regimeandtheirowninternalKurdishproblem,saidOllivant.DotheSaudishateISISworsethanthey
hatetheIranians?No.DotheIranianshateISISworsethantheyhatetheSaudis?No.Itisasecondtier
problemforalmosteveryoneelseintheregion.

ThatmaybeparticularlyimportantinSyria
Itsalwaysdifficulttoreadbutitsimportanttorealisethat,toagreatextent,Irannowrunstheshowin
governmentfromSyria,saidElass.ItisnotnecessarilyAssadscall.ItsIrans.
ThePR/socialmediabattleremainskeyandhotlycontested.Whilelittlecanbedonetostopsome
youngmenwithinthosecountriesbeingdrawntothecause,morecouldbedonetostopforeign
fighters.
Itsnotallaboutthemilitarycampaign,thereclearlyhastobeacounterpropagandacampaign,saidAli.
Imnotgoingtosayitsgoingtobe100%successfulIamlessconfidentaboutitcomparetothe
militarycampaignbutithastobepartofthethinking.
Overall,thepanelsawnosignificantriskofultimatebreakupofIraqandSyrianeitherwasseen
particularlyworkable.Afinalsolutionmightinvolvebringingtogetherallpartiesintheregion,
eitherformallyorinformally.
IranandRussianeedtobeengagedjustasmuchasSaudiArabiaandTurkey,saidElass.Otherwise
ISISwillsimplycontinuetorunamok.
Furtherquotes:
WhathappenedinRamadi?
Ali:UpuntilRamadi,Iraqishavestoppedbelievingtherewasacommonthreat.Theyhadmovedon.Itsa
wakeupcallforallIraqis.Thathasbeen,insomeways,good.
ThereclearlyhastobeanexpediteddeliveryofweaponrytotheIraqisbecauseoneofthedeficienciesthat
wasapparentwasthattheIraqiforcesdidnothaveantitankmissileswhichcouldhavebeenveryeffective
indealingwith2730armouredcarbombs.Theydemoralisedthesecurityforces.Wehavetofocusonthat
effect.
Ollivant:Clearly,therewasalackofantitankmissilesatRamaidi.Why?Despitealltheirobjections
abouthowtheydthen,theKurdshaveplentyupintheNorth.Theystoppedallthecarbombsthatcame
atthemtherebecausetheyhadantitankmissilestoshootthem.TheIraqisoldiersatRamadididnot.

Wasthereapoliticaldecisionnottosupplythem?DidtheIraqissaytheydidntwantthem?Idontknow
whattheansweris.AllIknowisthattherewerenoantitankmissilestherewhentheyneedthem.
Isisprovideduswiththepicturesarearmouredbulldozerthatveryslowlyanddeliberatelymovedallthe
concretebarriersoutofthewaysothatthecarbombscouldcomethrough.TherewasnothingtheIraqi
soldierscoulddotostopthem.
Theyjusthadtowatchasthesecarbombscamethroughandthe(Iraqi)tentoonesuperioritybecame
ninetooneandthen8to1andthenseventooneasthecarbombsstartedblowingup.
ItdoesnttakeverylongwhenyouregettingtheseTimothyMcVeighsizedcarbombs.Theyaredump
trucksfullofammoniumnitrateandweknowwhatthatbigtoOklahomaCity.Theyhadseveralofthose
hitinrapidsuccessioninRamadi.
TheIraqiwilltofight
Ollivant:IamafanofthecurrentSecretaryofDefence.Imontherecordsayinghewasagreatchoice
forthejob.Butyoudontever,ever,getupandsayamajorallyofyourshasanarmywithnowilltofight.
Evenifitstrue,whichIdontbelieveittobeinthisparticularcase.
YoudontletISISatapropagandamessagethattheIraqiarmycannotfight.Itsnothelpful.
Ithinkthatkindofexemplifiesatrend.IthinktherearemanyactorsintheUSpoliticalsystemwedonot
thinkabouttheimpactthattheirmessagehasitscontouredforaUSdomesticaudience,fordomestic
politicalpurposesbutwedontthinkabouthowitplaysinthe,howitmightharmouralliesandassist
ISIS.
Ali:myconcernwiththemessagingisthattheUSgovernmentdidnotgetitright.Thishasresultedin
negativelyimpactingthemoraleoftherockssecurityforcesandwecanavoidthat.Itsverysimple.
Itsamistaketocalloutanotherally.Youcanalwayshaveprivatechannelstosendthosemessages.My
concern,giventhatthisisWashington,isthatyouwillhavedepolarisationofIraq(asaUSpoliticalissue
issue).
Bootsontheground?
Ollivant:DeployingAmericantroopswouldbeabadidea.TheimmediatefightagainstISISisanecessary
stepbutthatsprobablytheeasiesttohandle.
YoucantteachyourselfawayfromthevariousSadristsnotjustMoqtadaalSadrbutthelargerSadrist
traditionofgroupswhowouldinaverytraditionalwhitejustseethisasanoccupyingarmy.Onone

respect,Ikindofeffectthat.Idliketothinkthatifsomeonesentsoldierstooccupymycountry,Iwould
shootthemtoo.
Ifeellikethefootballcoachissayingthisafterhisteamwasjustinterdictedandtheyranatouchdownof
thatnonetheless,thestrategyisworking.Thestrategyistoessentiallytrain,equip,provideairstrikesand
provideintelligence.Wemayhavetolookatimprovementsinallthoseareas.

Thebigpicture
Ollivant:ISISthrivesunderaveryspecificsetofconditions.ItthrivesinSunniArabregionsinwhich
stateinstitutionsareweakornonexistent.Whentheyrunupagainstaplaceinwhichthesedonothold
whentheybumpupagainstSunniArabsinthesouthofIraqortheKurdsinnorthwesternIraqorthe
TurksintheNorthortheKurdsinSyriaorthefunctioningstateslikeJordanandSaudiArabia,theydont
spread.
Thebadnewsisthatthisdescribesawholelotoftheregionandweseetheseconditionsinplaceslike
EgyptandLibyaandthesouthernpartofTunisia.Therearealotofplacesthatfittheseconditionsbut
theredoesseemtobealimittotheirspread.
SyriaandNorthAfricaISISstilldominant
Elass:ManyinSyria,includingtherebels,didnottakeISISseriously.TheysaidISIScanttakeholdina
placelikeSyria.Theresnobreadforthem.TheysaidtheycantreallythriveinSyriabecausetheyrelyso
muchonforeignjihadists.
WecanlookoutsideSyriato,forexample,Libya.ISIShasasmallpresencetherebutitisgrowingandalso
beingunderestimatedbyEurope.Forexample,Europeissufferingfromthehumantraffickingofpeople
acrosstheMediterraneanandISISkeepssayingreputtingsleepingcellsamongstthosemigrants.
ISISclaimtheyhaveputhundredsonthoseboatsitmightbedifficulttobelievebutrealisticallyall
theyneedisadozenorsotowreakhavocinEurope.
Ollivant:TheAssadregimedoescareaboutfightingISISthatitcaresfarmoreaboutfightingtheFree
SyrianArmyandalNusrawhichitsees,rightly,asthreatstoitsimmediateexistence.
Ofcourse,thisadministrationhasthatcertainredlinesinplaceonSyriathat,politically,itjustcantmove
off.Asecondpieceofthisisthatwejusthavetopuntthistotheadministration.
Coalitionstrategy

Ollivant:WehaveanIraqfirststrategyfortworeasons.TherearealotofpartnerforcesinIraqthatwe
canrelyontodotheheavylifting.TherearetheofficialIraqisecurityforces,thearmyandpolice.Theyare
theShiamilitias,theresthePeshmergaandtherearesomeSunnitribesmen.Sothatsthepositivereason
weredoingIraqfirst.
Thenegativereasonistheflipsideofthat.InSyria,wehavesomewhereneighbourhoodofnobodywhois
willingtobeapartnerforustohelpusfightagainstISISandeventotheextentwetrytogenerateforcesto
helpus,itturnsouttheyarefarmoreinterestedinfightingagainsttheregimepartofourproblemwith
puttingtogetherthisentirecoalitionisthatwiththeexceptionoftheUSinBaghdadthateveryoneelse
inthecoalitionisinterestedinfightingIsisbutitsnobetterthantheirnumbertwopriority.
Yes,weneedtothrowISISoutofIraq.WealsoneedtomakesurethatastableIraqisleftbehindthatcan
handlethereconstructionandreassimilation.WealsoneedtoensurethatIraqismoreorientedtowardsthe
west,fromaUSperspective.
ThenweneedtofigureoutsomethingabouttheSyriancivilwar.Then,inthemuchbroadersense,weneed
tofigureouthowtocreatelegitimatepartsfortheArabyouthbulgetohaveboththeeconomicand
politicalparticipation.
Now,ifIknewhowtosolvethose,IgettheNobelPeacePrize,butthoseotherthingsweneedtodo.
Ali:TheUSisthecrucialplayerinthefightagainstISIS.Wehavea60membercoalitionbuttheUS
remainsthemostcommitted.Itsmostabletodevotealotofresources.
TheUSiscapableofdoingagreatdeal.OnemajorlineofeffectistheSdrives.WhentheUSdecidedto
deploythemeffectivelyandwidely,itmadeahugedifferenceonthebattlefield.
IfyoulookatKobani,ISISmadeitapriority.ItbecameapriorityfortheUSandSyrianKurdsaswelland
(they)cameoutontop.SamewithTikritandotherplaces.
ISISisanadaptivegroupandweneedtobeadaptedaswell.Wecantsticktothesamestrategyasthe
situationunfolds.
Elass:Itsliketheongoingwaronterrorism,drugsorpoverty.Youcantfightawarlikethisusingjust
onestrategy.
BombingISISisimportantinrollingbacksomeoftheirterritorybutitcantpossiblybetheonlysolution.
ISISthrivesonchaos,itthrivesonpowervacuumsandaslongasSyriaisdeepincivilwar,ISISwill
continuetothrive.
Therearepartnersthat,Ithink,WashingtoncanengagetocurbthespreadofISISinsideSyria.Those
partnersmaybecontroversialbutIranandRussiaaredefinitepartnersinthis.Theyhavetobeengaged,
justasmuchasSaudiArabiaandTurkey.Withoutthis,ISISwillcontinuetorunamok.

InSyria,therearenotrustworthysustainablelongtermpartnerstoworkwith.Theresalsothefightfor
heartsandminds.
IraqlookingbeyondRamadi
Ali:JuneAugust2014wasaterribleperiodforIraqbecauseISISwasabletomakealotofadvancesand
takecontrolofmanycities.Ithadallthemomentumitneededthroughoutthecountry.Sincethen,youhave
noticedachangeinthedynamicwhichhasledtoISISbeingonthedefensive.
Now,itonlyhasmomentuminwesternIraq.InnorthernIraq,theKurdishPeshmergahavedoneagoodjob
containingISIS.ISISwaskickedoutdecisivelyfromSalahadDinprovince,notonlyfromthecapital
Tikrit.Itwasnotaneasyoperation.Itrequiredalotofeffortsandcoordinationbetweendifferentforce
evenifyoulookatDiyalainnortheasternIraq,ISISwasalsoclearedfromthere.
TheonlyplaceISIShasshifteditsresourcesisRamadiandAnbar.Anbarwastheresultofarecognition
thatitwasonthedefensiveandwaslosinginotherpartsofthecountry.ForISIScannotbeseenasa
losingorganisation,ithastobeanorganisationthatisonthemarch.
DespitethefallofRamadi,itisstillcontained.youhavetolookatthedecisivefactorsthathaveledtothis
outcome.TheyreactuallycapableforcesfightingISISontheground.Weretalkingabout200,000anti
ISISmembersandmanyofthemhaveshownagreatwilltofightdespitewhatthesecretaryofdefencehas
said.
Butthisisalongtermbattleanditwillkeepchangingbackandforth.Immoreconfidentaboutwhatwill
happentoISISinIraqthanIamofSyria.
Thebattleforheartsandminds
Ali:Alotofpeoplefallinlovewithbadguys.Itsassimpleasthat.Wetendtolionisetheirgamesand
minimisethegainsofantiISISforces.YounotonlyhavepeoplewhoareISISadherentsTweetingand
propagatingtheirmessagesonsocialmediabutnonIsissupportersdoingthesamething.
ThesocialmediawariscrucialtobeatISISthewayISISspreadsitsnewsisthatwhenevertheresan
attackinanarea,youllgetawholenumberofaccountstweetingthesamethinganditgetspropagated.
ISIShasthecapabilityandthegovernmentsdonothavethesameabilitywhichmakesitabigchallenge.
Itsnotaboutthesocialmedia,itsaboutontheground.
WhenISISwasgettingclosetoErbilinAugust2014,someonetoldmemyteenagedaughtercametome
andsaidDad,ISISisgettingcloseandIveseenwhatitdoesonYouTubeandTwitterandImvery
afraid.

Elass:WinningheartsandmindsinSyriahasnotworkedverywellforAmericalately.MostSyrians
wouldnttrustAmerica.ManyrebelfactionsthinkthatISISissomesortof(Western)conspiracy.
TheysaythingsliketheWestishappythatISISisfightingherebecauseitattractsallthejihadistshere
andtheygetkilledandnevergobacktoAmericaandEuropesothatsagoodwaytogetridofthem.
Bytheway,Ihaveheardpeoplefromtheintelligencecommunitywhodocountonthat.
ButIhavetosay,IdontthinkISISarewinningthePRwar.Brutalityisnotnewtohumankind.Allthe
time,wehaveanimalabusersandKKKandneoNazisinEuropewhotrytoincreasetheirplatformonline
andtheyaresuppressed.TheydonthavethatkindofmoneythatcomestoISIS.
Theyrenotnecessarilywinningthewar.Theyvejustgottenalotofmoneythroughpetrodollarsandalot
ofvisibilityfornow.
Theyarealsoverytechsavvybecausetheyrecruitalotofnerves.Alotofthetwitteraccountsareactually
echoaccounts.
Ollivant:Theyhavebeenverycleverinthewaytheyveapproachedalotoftheseaccounts.Themore
prominentonesareonlyabout3040percentproIsisand60%antiIranian.
Theyareverycleverinfindingwaystoinfiltratecertaincommunitiesandembeddingthemselvesinthose
largercontexts.BeingantiIranianhasbeenareallyinterestingwaitingforquitesomemediastreams.
Theirproductionvaluesareextremelygood.IwasfinishedinthefirstissueoftheirEnglishlanguage
propagandamagazine.IgivepeopleatthethinktanksandbusinessesIworkoutahardtimebecausesome
ofthebestlayoutonmethatseverbeendone.Inatechnicalsenseisquiteadmirable.
Ali:Withdifferentcrackdowns,ISISresultedtoothermeans.AtsomepointtheystartedusingRussian
serversandRussianwebsite.Twittergoesonsuspensionbingeseveryonceinawhilewhereshutsdown
thousandsofISISaccounts.
Aslongasyoucankeepthemunderpressure,thoseuserswhoaresympathetictoISIS,youcanactuallydo
something.TherehastobeasystemiceffortbutIdontanticipateittobeseen.
ISISrecruitment
Ollivant:ThereisnooneprofileofsomeonewhojoinsISISbutingeneral,therearetwolargepool
IntheWest,itismostlyteenageangst.KidswhowouldotherwisejointheGothcommunityorrunoffto
Californiaandjoinsomewackosexordrugbasedcult.Therearealwaysgoingtobelookingfor

something,thatdemographic,soitshardtoseethemnotfindingawaytolinkthemselveswithsomeone
likeISIS.
Theotherpoolfromarationalperspectiveisquitelogical.YoungmenintheArabworldwhoarenotjust
unemployedandunemployable.Nopossibilityofeverjoiningsocietyorhavingafamily,wewouldnever
beabletoaccumulatemoneyforadowrysotheycanhaveawifeandchildren.Youcomeandfind
someonewhohasnofuture,noprospectsat15or16,hadagunandasenseofbelongingandawaytohave
accesstomoneyandgoodsandsex.What16yearoldisnotgoingtosignuptothat.Lettheideologycome
later.
Ali:Fortheforeignfighters,itsaboutbeingdisillusioned.JoiningISIStofindpurposeisattractedtofolks
whohavedifficultyofsimulatingintotheUKorFranceorothercountries.SomehavetriedintheUSbut
theimmigrationandassimilationhereiseasierforAmericanstohavebeenbornhere.
Youhavetoberealistic.ThereisanissueherewithdifferentMuslimcommunitiesaroundtheworld
particularlythoseinEuropeandevenintheUS.ThatswhyIbelieveonewayisforparentstotakea
biggerrole.Therehastobeabetterunderstandingbytheparentsandbettereducationbytheparents.
Elass:Idontthinkitstopsthere.Idontthinktherealquestionishowtostopthemrecruitingonlineor
puttingouttheirideologybecausethatsunstoppable.Idontthinkitsagoodideatopushthem
undergroundandofftwitter.
Itsanoldstrategyencouragethemtocometothesurface.Thatwayitseasiertokeepaneyeonthem.
Therealchallengecomeswhentheauthorities,communitiescountriesinvolvedinstoppingtheflowof
jihadasis.Turkey,forone,couldbestrictaboutmonitoringitsborders.Europecouldbestricter.
Tunisia,whichhasbecomeamajorpartnerwithWashington,candoalotmoreaboutexportingjihadiststo
ISIS
ThelongtermfutureofIraqstayingonecountry?
Ollivant:Yes.Thealternativeisacivilwarthatwouldmakeseriouslookrelativelycalm.Youcandraw
linesonthemapandmakeyourownplanbutthenyounoticethattheselinesgothroughBaghdad.What
happenstothe1.5millionSunniswholivedthere?Willthatbepeaceful?Isuspectnot.
WhathappenstotheentireprovinceofDiyalawhichisamixedbowlofSunni,ShiaandKurd?
MuchastheKurdsliketotalkofanindependentKurdistan,itsnotaviableentity.Sunnistan,asitmight
becool,wouldbecomeessentiallyanArabWaziristan:noresources,noaccesstothesea,noparticular
reasonforitsexistenceasapoliticalentity.Shiastanwouldgetmuchricherbecausetheyhaveallthe
resourcesthattheywouldlackthelargerpopulationandallowsthemtostanduptoIranianinfluenceandI
thinktheywouldbecometheIranianproxythattheyarefalselyaccusedofbeing.

Ali:ImwillingtobetIraqisgoingtoremainunited.ItsnotbecauseIraqisliketogetalong.Itsbecause
Iraqisneedtogetalong.
Asmuchasyouseediscussionthereisstillanunderstandingthatthecountrysoildependentandtheoil
ismostlyinsouthernIraq.Asaresult,itwillbedifficultforotherpartstoleaveeasily.
Plus,todaysMiddleEastisnotthe1920sMiddleEast.Itsnoteasytocombinecountries.ISISisdoing
thatatthemomentbutthatdoesntmeanithastobesuccessful.
LongtermfutureofSyria
Elass:Therewasatime,maybeacoupleofyearsago,whenitwasfeasibletothinkthatSyriamightdivide
intotwo,onepartrebelcontrolledandthenregimecontrolledfromDamascustoHomsandthecoastal
provinces.EvenregimeinsiderswhowereclosetoAssadconcededthis.
Now,Ithink,itsalotmorecomplicated,particularlywithISIS.Othercountrydisplayed,itneedstohave
atleasttwointernallycoherentbutseparatesections.Thatisnolongerthecase.Therearenowsomany
partsofSyriathatitwouldlooklikesomethinglikepolkadots,nottowantthreestates.Thatmakesit
unlikely,ifthatmakessense.
ReportbyPeterApps.TranscriptbyChristopherStephens