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  • A New Do-Nothing Congress

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    Peter Orszag
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    The question of the day is, What difference will it make if Republicans take the Senate? The backdrop is a highly polarized political environment. Regardless of whether it's preferable for Congress to enact bipartisan laws, the moderates who produce them are so rare that only partisan legislation is likely to be considered. Getting such laws passed, though, requires that one party control not just the House and the Senate but also the White House. In a world where you need all three, having two as opposed to one doesn’t matter much.

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    The question of the day is, What difference will it make if Republicans take the Senate? The backdrop is a highly polarized political environment. Regardless of whether it's preferable for Congress to enact bipartisan laws, the moderates who produce them are so rare that only partisan legislation is likely to be considered. Getting such laws passed, though, requires that one party control not just the House and the Senate but also the White House. In a world where you need all three, having two as opposed to one doesn’t matter much.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    15 views3 pages

    A New Do-Nothing Congress

    Uploaded by

    Peter Orszag
    The question of the day is, What difference will it make if Republicans take the Senate? The backdrop is a highly polarized political environment. Regardless of whether it's preferable for Congress to enact bipartisan laws, the moderates who produce them are so rare that only partisan legislation is likely to be considered. Getting such laws passed, though, requires that one party control not just the House and the Senate but also the White House. In a world where you need all three, having two as opposed to one doesn’t matter much.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 3

    6/16/2015

    A New Do-Nothing Congress - Bloomberg View

    MID TE R ME LE CT ION S

    ANewDoNothingCongress

    NOV4,20149:03AMEST

    ByPeterR.Orszag

    aA

    Thequestionofthedayis,WhatdifferencewillitmakeifRepublicanstaketheSenate?
    Thebackdropisahighlypolarizedpoliticalenvironment.Regardlessofwhetherit'spreferablefor
    Congresstoenactbipartisanlaws,themoderateswhoproducethemaresorarethatonlypartisan
    legislationislikelytobeconsidered.Gettingsuchlawspassed,though,requiresthatoneparty
    controlnotjusttheHouseandtheSenatebutalsotheWhiteHouse.Inaworldwhereyouneedall
    three,havingtwoasopposedtoonedoesntmattermuch.
    TheneedforgreatercontrolisespeciallythecaseintheSenate,whereatleast60votesare
    generallyrequiredtogetanythingdone.TheRepublicans,tobesure,coulduseaprocesscalled
    reconciliationtopassbudgetrelatedbillswithjust51votes,buteventhenthelegislationissubject
    toapresidentialveto,whichtakes67votestooverturn.Andwhileitstruethatanoticeable
    numberofSenateDemocratsaremoderates(andtheirranksmayswellabitaftertoday),their
    voteswillnotbesoeasyforRepublicanstoobtainandareprobablynotsufficienttoassemblea
    vetoproofmajority.
    SoanyonewhoexpectsaSenateshifttoproducebroadtaxreformorimmigrationreformoverthe
    nexttwoyearsislikelytobedisappointed.Taxreformiseasytosayandhardtodoimmigration
    reformisslightlymoreplausiblebutstillveryunlikelyinthepolarizedenvironment.Sowhat
    mighthappen?
    Onebadscenarioisanotheroutbreakoffiscaldrama.TheU.S.economyseemstoberecovering,
    despiteheadwindsfromabroad,inpartbecause,forthepastyear,lawmakersinWashingtonhave
    notcreatedneedlessuncertainty.Nextspring,however,thedebtlimit,thedocfixandotherfiscal
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-04/a-new-do-nothing-congress

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    6/16/2015

    A New Do-Nothing Congress - Bloomberg View

    cliffswillreartheiruglyheads.
    KevinMcCarthy,theHouseMajorityLeader,hasalreadyspokenpubliclyagainstthestrategyof
    creatingmountainsoutofthesecliffs:Whyputcliffsupthatholdusbackfromdoingbigger
    policy?ManynewlyelectedmembersoftheHouseandSenate,though,maybeitchingforacliff
    linkedfight.LetshopetheMcCarthyviewholds,sincethelastthingweneedisarepeatofthe
    debtlimitcrisisof2013.
    Evenwithoutcliffs,fiscalissueswillcreatetensions.ThetemporarybudgetdealthatDemocratic
    SenatorPattyMurrayandRepublicanRepresentativePaulRyanshepherdedthroughCongresslast
    yearalleviatedpressureonthediscretionarybudget,butthatpressurewillcomebackinforcein
    2015and2016.Thecapsonbothdefenseandnondefensespendingwillbecomeincreasingly
    difficulttomeetastimemarcheson,especiallysincetheBarackObamaadministrationand
    Congresshavedifferentspendingpriorities.
    Whatabouthealthcare?VotestorepealObamacaremaybeinevitable,buttheywillnothave
    sufficientsupporttooverridetheinevitablepresidentialveto.Republicansmaydobetterwith
    targetedlegislationaimedatprovisionsthatareunpopularwithanumberofDemocrats.Onthat
    listarethemedicaldevicetaxandtheIndependentPaymentAdvisoryBoard.Iamasupporterof
    both,andbelievetheIndependentPaymentAdvisoryBoardinparticularhasbeenwidely
    misunderstood,buttheyarepoliticallyvulnerable.TheWhiteHousewouldbewisetostart
    defendingthemnoworatleastlimitthedamageanychangesmightimpose.
    ThebestthingthatcouldhappenwouldbeforCongressandtheWhiteHousetoagreetoimprove
    theAffordableCareActbypassinglegislationsuchastheBetterCare,LowerCostAct.That
    wouldsettlethequestionofwhethervaluebasedpaymentsshouldgotoinsurers(which
    Republicansgenerallysupport,intheformofMedicareAdvantageplans)ortoproviders(which
    Democratsgenerallysupport,intheformofAccountableCareOrganizationsorbundled
    payments)byallowingboth.ItwouldalsoreinforcetherecentdecelerationinMedicare
    spending,increasingtheoddsofreapingabiggerfiscaldividendthananydirectpolicyagreement
    couldplausiblyachieve.Nevertheless,giventhedifficultiesofmovingforwardintodays
    polarizedpolicyworld,itsprobablytoomuchtohopefor.
    AfinalitemthatbecomessomewhatmorelikelywithRepublicancontroloftheSenateisthe
    TransPacificPartnership,aninternationaltradedealthathasbeenlanguishing.Thecoalitionin
    favoroffreetradeishardertocobbletogethertodaythanitwasinthepast,butRepublicansare
    stillgenerallymoresupportivethancongressionalDemocratsare.Providingtradepromotion
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-04/a-new-do-nothing-congress

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    6/16/2015

    A New Do-Nothing Congress - Bloomberg View

    authorityandratifyingtheTPP,oncetheinternationalnegotiationswrapup,couldletRepublicans
    demonstrateeffectivenessonanissuethathappenstosplittheDemocrats.
    Mostly,though,weshouldexpectcontinuationofnotverymuchfromWashington.Inaction,tobe
    sure,isbetterthandrama.ThatswhytherecentcommentsfromMr.McCarthy,alongwiththe
    Republicans'expecteddesiretoretaintheirSenatemajorityin2016,suggestthatwemay,atleast,
    nothavetoputupwithunnecessarydistractions.
    Tocontactthewriterofthisarticle:PeterOrszagatorszagbloomberg@gmail.com.
    Tocontacttheeditorresponsibleforthisarticle:MaryDuenwaldatmduenwald@bloomberg.net.

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-04/a-new-do-nothing-congress

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