Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Panel (a)
Conditional
Scenario
Round
Round
Cash Flows
Probabilities
One
Two
$35,000,000
$15,000,000
$0
40%
25%
35%
$14,000,000
$3,750,000
$0
$21,538,462
$5,769,231
$17,750,000
$15,204,851
$27,307,692
$9,730,085
$2,000,000
1
$3,000,000
0.5
$3,500,000
$3,442,308
$2,937,500
Panel (b)
Conditional
Scenario
Round
Round
Cash Flows
Probabilities
One
Two
$28,000,000
$13,500,000
$0
$4,750,000
$4,630,391
$3,487,803
32%
20%
48%
$8,960,000
$2,700,000
$0
$17,230,769
$5,192,308
$11,660,000
$12,303,430
$22,423,077
$7,054,312
$1,800,000
1.25
$2,500,000
1
Panel (a)
$21,302,081
$3,442,308
16.16%
Panel (b)
$7,288,630
$4,360,391
59.82%
Table 13.4
Figure 13.1
Success
Success with
Both Groups
Failure
Fund Stage 2:
Aircraft Owners
Fund Stage 1:
Avionics OEM
Failure
Success
Abandon
Failure
Round 2
Exit
Financing:
Round 1
Table 13.5
Investor's
Assumptions
4.0%
10.0%
20.0%
2.5%
20.0%
0.25
4.0%
10.0%
20.0%
2.5%
20.0%
0.25
$3,442,308
3.00
$4,630,391
4.00
$17,750,000
$15,204,851
$10,257,406
$11,660,000
$12,303,430
$5,843,845
20.06%
18.85%
$3,442,308
$10,257,406
33.56%
$4,630,391
$5,843,845
79.24%
$1,700,000
$1,600,000
$11,793,235
$10,102,219
$2,421,159
$2,554,765
$2,262,700
$588,897
$2,342,560
$640,000
$14,055,935
$10,265,291
$7,065,242
$1,700,000
$5,365,242
$4,763,719
$2,784,591
$2,321,104
$1,600,000
$721,104
25.77%
30.02%
19.69%
35.36%
Table 13.6
Investor's
Assumptions
4.0%
10.0%
20.0%
2.5%
20.0%
0.25
3.00
4.0%
10.0%
20.0%
2.5%
20.0%
0.25
4.00
$2,000,000
1.00
$1,800,000
1.25
65%
$3,000,000
0.50
52%
$2,500,000
1.00
Round 2
Expected Harvest Value
Standard Deviation of Harvest Cash Flows
Value to Investor at Time of Investment
$27,307,692
$9,730,085
$18,481,990
$22,423,077
$7,054,312
$14,421,393
Round 1
Expected Harvest Value
Standard Deviation of Harvest Cash Flows
Value of Round 1 at Time of Investment
$17,750,000
$15,204,851
$10,257,406
$11,660,000
$12,303,430
$5,843,845
20.06%
21.55%
18.85%
17.41%
Table 13.7
Investor's
Assumptions
$1,500,000
$18,481,990
8.12%
$3,603,638
$5,103,638
27.61%
$2,500,000
$14,421,393
17.34%
$5,552,531
$8,052,531
55.84%
$2,000,000
$10,257,406
19.50%
$2,250,000
$5,843,845
38.50%
57.50%
101.95%
Table 13.8
Venture
Conditional
Cash Flows
$35,000,000
$15,000,000
$0
Scenario
Probabilities
40%
25%
35%
Entrepreneur's
Conditional
Cash Flows
$25,335,059
$10,857,883
$0
Probability
Weighted
Cash Flows
$10,134,024
$2,714,471
$0
$12,848,494
$11,006,166
Conditional
Cash Flows
$28,000,000
$13,500,000
$0
Scenario
Probabilities
32%
20%
48%
Entrepreneur's
Conditional
Cash Flows
$12,365,527
$5,961,951
$0
Probability
Weighted
Cash Flows
$3,956,969
$1,192,390
$0
$5,149,359
$5,433,515
Table 13.9
Entrepreneur's
Assumptions
Investor's
Assumptions
4.0%
10.0%
20.0%
0.25
3.00
$1,700,000
4.0%
10.0%
20.0%
0.25
4.00
$1,600,000
1.00
1.25
0.50
1.00
$12,848,494
$11,006,166
$5,149,359
$5,433,515
$2,262,700
$588,897
$2,342,560
$640,000
$15,111,194
$11,167,956
$7,525,846
$1,700,000
$5,825,846
$7,491,919
$5,627,735
$2,865,420
$1,600,000
$1,265,420