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Economic growth
2.1
Quality of life
3 Factors
growth
aecting
economic
3.2 Productivity
Increases in labor productivity(ratio of value output to labor input) have historically been the most
important source of real per capita economic
growth.[10][11][12][13][14] (Note:
There are various
measures of productivity. The term used here applies
to a broad measure of productivity. By contrast, Total
factor productivity (TFP) measures the change in output
not attributable to capital and labor. Many of the cited
references use TFP. Increases in productivity lower the
real cost of goods. Over the 20th century the real price
of many goods fell by over 90%.[15]
3.3
Capital
trap.[17][18] The rapid economic growth that occurred during the Industrial Revolution was remarkable because it
was in excess of population growth, providing an escape
from the Malthusian trap.[19] Countries that industrialized
eventually saw their population growth slow down, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition.
Increases in productivity are the major factor responsible for per capita economic growth this has been especially evident since the mid-19th century. Most of the
economic growth in the 20th century was due to reduced
inputs of labor, materials, energy, and land per unit of
economic output (less input per widget). The balance of
growth has come from using more inputs overall because
of the growth in output (more widgets or alternately more Productivity lowered the cost of most items in terms of work time
value added), including new kinds of goods and services required to purchase. Real food prices fell due to improvements
(innovations).[20]
in transportation and trade, mechanized agriculture, fertilizers,
scientic farming and the Green Revolution.
Capital is subject to diminishing returns because of the A 1999 review in the Journal of Economic Literature
amount that can be eectively invested and because of states high inequality lowers growth, perhaps because
the growing burden of depreciation.
it increases social and political instability.[47] A 1992
In the development of economic theory the distribution World Bank report published in the Journal of Developof income was considered to be between labor and the ment Economics said that inequality is negatively, and
robustly, correlated with growth. This result is not highly
owners of land and capital.[43]
dependent upon assumptions about either the form of
the growth regression or the measure of inequality.[48]
NYU economist William Baumol found that substan3.4 New products and services
tial inequality does not stimulate growth because poverty
[49]
Economists Dierk
Another major cause of economic growth is the introduc- reduces labor force productivity.
Herzer
and
Sebastian
Vollmer
found
that increased intion of new products and services and the improvement of
come
inequality
reduces
economic
growth,
but growth itexisting products. New products create demand, which is
[50]
self
increases
income
inequality.
necessary to oset the decline in employment that occurs
through labor saving technology.[40][44]
3.5
Economic growth in the U.S. and other developed countries went through phases that aected growth through
changes in the labor force participation rate and the relative sizes of economic sectors. The transition from an
agricultural economy to manufacturing increased the size
of the high output per hour, high productivity growth
manufacturing sector while reducing the size of the lower
output per hour, lower productivity growth agricultural
sector. Eventually high productivity growth in manufacturing reduced the sector size as prices fell and employment shrank relative to other sectors.[45][46] The service
and government sectors, where output per hour and productivity growth is very low, saw increases in share of the
economy and employment.[10]
3.5.1
Business cycle
3.7
Demographic changes
5
3.6.1 Equitable growth
Main article: Inclusive growth
While acknowledging the central role economic growth
can potentially play in human development, poverty reduction and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, it is becoming widely understood amongst
the development community that special eorts must
be made to ensure poorer sections of society are able
to participate in economic growth.[65][66][67] The eect
of economic growth on poverty reduction - the growth
elasticity of poverty - can depend on the existing level
of inequality.[68][69] For instance, with low inequality a
country with a growth rate of 2% per head and 40%
of its population living in poverty, can halve poverty in
ten years, but a country with high inequality would take
nearly 60 years to achieve the same reduction.[70][71] In
the words of the Secretary General of the United Nations
Ban Ki-Moon: While economic growth is necessary, it
is not sucient for progress on reducing poverty.[65]
4 Negative eects
A number of arguments have been raised against economic growth.[72]
14
10
8
6
4
cumulative
production
90x10 9 bbls
is creating a scenario where we could see a systemic collapse of our planets natural resources.[79][80]
Concerns about possible negative eects of growth on
the environment and society led some to advocate lower
levels of growth. This led to the ideas of uneconomic
growth and de-growth and Green parties that argue that
economies are part of a global society and global ecology,
and cannot outstrip their natural growth without damaging those.
Those more optimistic about the environmental impacts
of growth believe that, though localized environmental
eects may occur, large-scale ecological eects are minor. The argument, as stated by commentator Julian Lincoln Simon, states that if these global-scale ecological effects exist, human ingenuity will nd ways to adapt to
them.[81]
proven reserves
250x10 9 bbls
12
NEGATIVE EFFECTS
Future discoveries
910x10 9 bbls
2
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
Year
4.2
Environmental impact
6.3
day, therefore it is not reasonable to impose sacrices on workers remains constant and economic growth ceases.
the much poorer present generation.[86]
This point is called a steady state.
Some physical scientists like Al Bartlett regard continuous economic growth as unsustainable.[87][88] Several factors may constrain economic growth - for example: nite,
peaked, or depleted resources.
In 1972, the The Limits to Growth study modeled limitations to innite growth; originally ridiculed,[73][74][89]
these models have been validated and updated.[90][91][92]
Some Malthusians, such as William R. Catton, Jr., author
of the 1980 book Overshoot, express skepticism of the
idea that various technological advancements will make
previously inaccessible or lower-grade resources more
available. Such advances and increases in eciency, they
suggest, merely accelerate the drawing down of nite
resources. Catton refers to the contemporary increases
in rates of resource extraction as, "...stealing ravenously
from the future.[93]
6
6.1
In classical (Ricardian) economics, the theory of production and the theory of growth are based on the theory or
law of variable proportions, whereby increasing either of
the factors of production (labor or capital), while holding
the other constant and assuming no technological change,
will increase output, but at a diminishing rate that eventually will approach zero. These concepts have their origins in Thomas Malthuss theorizing about agriculture.
Malthuss examples included the number of seeds harvested relative to the number of seeds planted (capital)
on a plot of land and the size of the harvest from a plot
of land versus the number of workers employed.[94] See:
Diminishing returns
6.4 Unied growth theory
Criticisms of classical growth theory are that technology,
the most important factor in economic growth, is held Unied growth theory was developed by Oded Galor
and his co-authors to address the inability of endogenous
constant and that economies of scale are ignored.[95]
growth theory to explain key empirical regularities in the
growth processes of individual economies and the world
economy as a whole. Endogenous growth theory was sat6.2 Solow-Swan model
ised with accounting for empirical regularities in the
Robert Solow[96] and Trevor Swan[97] developed what growth process of developed economies over the last huneventually became the main model used in growth eco- dred years. As a consequence, it was not able to explain
nomics in the 1950s. This model assumes that there are the qualitatively dierent empirical regularities that chardiminishing returns to capital and labor. Capital accumu- acterized the growth process over longer time horizons in
lates out of saving but its level per worker decreases due both developed and less developed economies. Unied
to depreciation and population growth. As a result of di- growth theories are endogenous growth theories that are
minishing returns to capital economies eventually reach consistent with the entire process of development, and
a point where, absent technological progress, capital per in particular the transition from the epoch of Malthusian
stagnation that had characterized most of the process of colonizers) that are not properly placed regarding the gedevelopment to the contemporary era of sustained eco- ographical locations of dierent ethnic groups, creating
nomic growth.[101]
internal disputes and conicts that hinder development.
In another example, societies that emerged in colonies
without solid native populations established better prop6.5 The big push
erty rights and incentives for long-term investment than
those where native populations were large.[106]
One popular theory in the 1940s was the Big Push, which
suggested that countries needed to jump from one stage of
development to another through a virtuous cycle, in which
large investments in infrastructure and education coupled with private investments would move the economy 6.8 Human capital and growth
to a more productive stage, breaking free from economic
paradigms appropriate to a lower productivity stage.[102] One ubiquitous element of both theoretical and empirThe idea was revived and formulated rigorously, in the ical analyses of economic growth is the role of human
late 1980s by Kevin Murphy, Andrei Schleifer and Robert capital. The skills of the population enter into both neoVishny.[103]
classical and endogenous growth models.[107] The most
commonly used measure of human capital is the level of
school attainment in a country, building upon the data de6.6 Schumpeterian growth
velopment of Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee.[108] This
measure of human capital, however, requires the strong
Schumpeterian growth is an economic theory named af- assumption that what is learned in a year of schooling is
ter the 20th-century Austrian economist Joseph Schum- the same across all countries. It also presumes that hupeter. The approach explains growth as a consequence man capital is only developed in formal schooling, conof innovation and a process of creative destruction that trary to the extensive evidence that families, neighborcaptures the dual nature of technological progress: in hoods, peers, and health also contribute to the developterms of creation, entrepreneurs introduce new products ment of human capital. To measure human capital more
or processes in the hope that they will enjoy temporary accurately, Eric Hanushek and Dennis Kimko introduced
monopoly-like prots as they capture markets. In doing measures of mathematics and science skills from internaso, they make old technologies or products obsolete. This tional assessments into growth analysis.[109] They found
can be seen as an annulment of previous technologies, that quality of human capital was very signicantly rewhich makes them obsolete, and "...destroys the rents lated to economic growth. This approach has been exgenerated by previous innovations. (Aghion 855)[104] A tended by a variety of authors, and the evidence indicates
major model that illustrates Schumpeterian growth is the that economic growth is very closely related to the cogniAghion-Howitt model.[105]
tive skills of the population.[110]
6.7
See also
Degrowth
Export-oriented industrialization
Growth accounting
List of countries by real GDP growth rate
References
[15] Rosenberg, Nathan (1982). Inside the Black Box: Technology and Economics. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press. p. 258. ISBN 0-521-273676<Attributed to Simon Kuznets>
[16] Lucas, R. E. 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development, Journal of monetary economics, 22(1), 342.
[17] Galor, Oded (2005). From Stagnation to Growth: Unied Growth Theory. Handbook of Economic Growth 1.
Elsevier. pp. 171293.
[18] Clark, Gregory (2007). A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.
ISBN 978-0-691-12135-2Part I: The Malthusian Trap
[19] Clark 2007, pp. Part 2: The Industrial Revolution
[20] Kendrick, J. W. 1961 "Productivity trends in the United
States, Princeton University Press
[21] Landes, David. S. (1969). The Unbound Prometheus:
Technological Change and Industrial Development in
Western Europe from 1750 to the Present. Cambridge,
New York: Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge. ISBN 0-521-09418-6.
[22] Hounshell, David A. (1984), From the American System to Mass Production, 1800-1932: The Development of
Manufacturing Technology in the United States, Baltimore,
Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press, ISBN 978-08018-2975-8, LCCN 83016269
[23] Ayres, Robert U.; Warr, Benjamin (2004). Accounting
for Growth: The Role of Physical Work (PDF).
[24] Grubler, Arnulf (1990). The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures (PDF).
[25] Taylor, George Rogers. The Transportation Revolution,
18151860. ISBN 978-0873321013.
[26] Wells, David A. (1890). Recent Economic Changes and
Their Eect on Production and Distribution of Wealth and
Well-Being of Society. New York: D. Appleton and Co.
ISBN 0543724743.
[27] Atack, Jeremy; Passell, Peter (1994). A New Economic
View of American History. New York: W.W. Norton and
Co. ISBN 0-393-96315-2.
[28] Beaudreau, Bernard C. (1996). Mass Production, the Stock
Market Crash and the Great Depression. New York, Lincoln, Shanghi: Authors Choice Press.
[13] Corry, Dan; Valero, Anna; Van Reenen, John (Nov 2011).
UK Economic Performance Since 1997 (PDF)<" The
UKs high GDP per capita growth was driven by strong
growth in productivity (GDP per hour), which was second
only to the US .">
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REFERENCES
[32] Leading article: Africa has to spend carefully. The Independent. July 13, 2006.
[33] Data refer to the year 2008. $26,341 GDP for Korea,
$1513 for Ghana. World Economic Outlook Database
October 2008. International Monetary Fund.
[38] Abramovitz, Moses; David, Paul A. (2000). Two Centuries of American Macroeconomic Growth From Exploitation of Resource Abundance to Knowledge-Driven Development (PDF). Stanford University. pp. 245 (pdf p=28
9).
[53] Easterly, W (2007). Inequality does cause underdevelopment: Insights from a new instrument (PDF).
Journal of Development Economics 84 (2): 755776.
doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2006.11.002.
[54] Castells-Quintana, David; Royuela, Vicente (2012).
Unemployment and long-run economic growth: The role
of income inequality and urbanisation (PDF). Investigaciones Regionales 12 (24): 153173. Retrieved 17 October 2013.
[55] Stiglitz, J (2009). The global crisis, social protection and
jobs (PDF). International Labour Review 148 (12).
[56] More or Less| Branko Milanovic| Finance & Development|
September 2011| Vol. 48, No. 3
[57] Galor, Oded and Joseph Zeira, 1993, Income Distribution and Macroeconomics, Review of Economic Studies,
60(1), 3552.
[58] Perotti, R (1996). Growth, income distribution and
democracy: what do the data say?" (PDF). Journal of Economic Growth 1 (2): 149187. doi:10.1007/bf00138861.
[59] Barro (1999)
[60] Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries.
[61] Ruth-Aida Nahum (2 February 2005). Income Inequality and Growth: a Panel Study of Swedish Counties 19602000.
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9 FURTHER READING
[101]
[102]
[103]
[104]
9 Further reading
Argyrous, G., Forstater, M and Mongiovi, G. (eds.)
(2004) Growth, Distribution, And Eective Demand:
Essays in Honor of Edward J. Nell. New York: M.E.
Sharpe.
Barro, Robert J. (1997) Determinants of Economic
Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study. MIT
Press: Cambridge, MA.
Galor, O. (2005) From Stagnation to Growth: Unied Growth Theory. Handbook of Economic
Growth, Elsevier.
Grier, Kevin (2008). Empirics of Economic Growth.
The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics (2nd ed.).
Library of Economics and Liberty. ISBN 9780865976658. OCLC 237794267.
Halevi, Joseph; Laibman, David and Nell, Edward
J. (eds.) (1992) Beyond the Steady State: Essays in
the Revival of Growth Theory, edited with, London,
UK:
Hueting, Roe (2011) The future of the Environmentally sustainable national income. kologisches
Wirtschaften, 4/2011, 30-35
Jones, Charles I. (2002) Introduction to Economic
Growth 2nd ed. W. W. Norton & Company: New
York, N.Y.
Kirzner, Israel.
trepreneurship
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. (2003) The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future, Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis, Annual Report online edition
10.2
Data
13
Research and Degrowth network Academic association dedicated to research, awareness raising, and
events organization around the topic of degrowth.
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10.1
External links
Articles and lectures
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11.1
11.2
Images
File:Berg_Ostry_2011_Chart_4.gif Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/Berg_Ostry_2011_Chart_4.gif License: Public domain Contributors: Equality and Eciency Finance and Development, September 2011, Vol. 48, No. 3 Original artist:
Andrew G. Berg and Jonathan D. Ostry, International Monetary Fund
File:Cost_of_chicken_in_time_worked.jpg Source:
time_worked.jpg License: CC BY 3.0 Contributors:
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11.3
Content license
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11.3
Content license