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Quantity of Guns Produced

Economic growth

GDP real growth rates, 19901998 and 19902006, in selected


countries.

Quantity of Butter Produced


Economic growth caused the production-possibility frontier to
shift outward.

adjusted terms to eliminate the distorting eect of


ination on the price of goods produced. Measurement
of economic growth uses national income accounting.[3]
Since economic growth is measured as the annual percent change of gross domestic product (GDP), it has all
the advantages and drawbacks of that measure.

Rate of change of Gross domestic product, world and OECD,


since 1961.

Economic growth is the increase in the market value


of the goods and services produced by an economy over
time. It is conventionally measured as the percent rate of
increase in real gross domestic product, or real GDP.[1]
Of more importance is the growth of the ratio of GDP
to population (GDP per capita, which is also called
per capita income). An increase in growth caused by
more ecient use of inputs is referred to as intensive
growth. GDP growth caused only by increases in inputs
such as capital, population or territory is called extensive
growth.[2]

1 Measuring economic growth


Main article: Gross domestic product
Economic growth is generally calculated from data on
GDP and population provided by countries statistical
agencies, although independent scholarly estimates are
also available.

In economics, economic growth or economic growth


theory typically refers to growth of potential output,
i.e., production at "full employment". As an area of
study, economic growth is generally distinguished from
development economics. The former is primarily the study
of how countries can advance their economies. The latter
is the study of the economic development process particularly in low-income countries.

2 Importance of long-run growth

Over long periods of time, even small rates of growth,


such as a 2% annual increase, have large eects. For example, the United Kingdom experienced a 1.97% average annual increase in its ination-adjusted GDP between
1830 and 2008.[4] In 1830, the GDP was 41,373 million
Growth is usually calculated in real terms i.e., ination- pounds. It grew to 1,330,088 million pounds by 2008. A
1

growth rate that averaged 1.97% over 178 years resulted


in a 32-fold increase in GDP by 2008.
The large impact of a relatively small growth rate over a
long period of time is due to the power of exponential
growth. The rule of 72, a mathematical result, states that
if something grows at the rate of x% per year, then its
level will double every 72/x years. For example, a growth
rate of 2.5% per annum leads to a doubling of the GDP
within 28.8 years, whilst a growth rate of 8% per year
leads to a doubling of GDP within 9 years. Thus, a small
dierence in economic growth rates between countries
can result in very dierent standards of living for their
populations if this small dierence continues for many
years.

2.1

Quality of life

Happiness has been shown to increase with a higher GDP


per capita, at least up to a level of $15,000 per person.[5]
Economic growth has the indirect potential to alleviate
poverty, as a result of a simultaneous increase in employment opportunities and increased labour productivity.[6]
A study by researchers at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) of 24 countries that experienced growth
found that in 18 cases, poverty was alleviated.[6] However, employment is no guarantee of escaping poverty;
the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates
that as many as 40% of workers are poor, not earning
enough to keep their families above the $2 a day poverty
line.[6] For instance, in India most of the chronically poor
are wage earners in formal employment, because their
jobs are insecure and low paid and oer no chance to
accumulate wealth to avoid risks; other countries found
bigger benets from focusing more on productivity improvement than on low-skilled work.[6]
Increases in employment without increases in productivity lead to a rise in the number of working poor, which
is why some experts are now promoting the creation of
quality and not quantity in labour market policies.[6]
This approach does highlight how higher productivity has
helped reduce poverty in East Asia, but the negative impact is beginning to show.[6] In Vietnam, for example,
employment growth has slowed while productivity growth
has continued.[6] Furthermore, productivity increases do
not always lead to increased wages, as can be seen in the
United States, where the gap between productivity and
wages has been rising since the 1980s.[6] The ODI study
showed that other sectors were just as important in reducing unemployment, as manufacturing.[6] The services
sector is most eective at translating productivity growth
into employment growth. Agriculture provides a safety
net for jobs and an economic buer when other sectors
are struggling.[6] This study suggests a more nuanced understanding of economic growth and quality of life and
poverty alleviation.

FACTORS AFFECTING ECONOMIC GROWTH

3 Factors
growth

aecting

economic

3.1 Political institutions, property rights,


and rule of law
See also: Great Divergence Property rights, Great
Divergence Eciency of markets and state intervention and Great Divergence State prohibition of new
technology
In economics and economic history, the transition to
capitalism from earlier economic systems was enabled by
the adoption of government policies that facilitated commerce and gave individuals more personal and economic
freedom. These included new laws favorable to the establishment of business, including contract law, the abolishment of anti-usury laws and laws providing for the protection of private property.[7][8] When property rights are
less certain, transaction costs can increase, hindering economic development. Enforcement of contractual rights
is necessary for economic development because it determines the rate and direction of investments. When the
rule of law is absent or weak, the enforcement of property rights depends on threats of violence, which causes
bias against new rms because they can not demonstrate
reliability to their customers.[9]

3.2 Productivity
Increases in labor productivity(ratio of value output to labor input) have historically been the most
important source of real per capita economic
growth.[10][11][12][13][14] (Note:
There are various
measures of productivity. The term used here applies
to a broad measure of productivity. By contrast, Total
factor productivity (TFP) measures the change in output
not attributable to capital and labor. Many of the cited
references use TFP. Increases in productivity lower the
real cost of goods. Over the 20th century the real price
of many goods fell by over 90%.[15]

3.2.1 Historical sources of productivity growth


Main article: Productivity (economic history)
Economic growth has traditionally been attributed
to the accumulation of human and physical capital,
and increased productivity arising from technological
innovation.[16]
Before industrialization, technological progress resulted
in an increase in population, which was kept in check
by food supply and other resources, which acted to limit
per capita income, a condition known as the Malthusian

3.3

Capital

trap.[17][18] The rapid economic growth that occurred during the Industrial Revolution was remarkable because it
was in excess of population growth, providing an escape
from the Malthusian trap.[19] Countries that industrialized
eventually saw their population growth slow down, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition.
Increases in productivity are the major factor responsible for per capita economic growth this has been especially evident since the mid-19th century. Most of the
economic growth in the 20th century was due to reduced
inputs of labor, materials, energy, and land per unit of
economic output (less input per widget). The balance of
growth has come from using more inputs overall because
of the growth in output (more widgets or alternately more Productivity lowered the cost of most items in terms of work time
value added), including new kinds of goods and services required to purchase. Real food prices fell due to improvements
(innovations).[20]
in transportation and trade, mechanized agriculture, fertilizers,
scientic farming and the Green Revolution.

During the Industrial Revolution, mechanization began


to replace hand methods in manufacturing, and new processes streamlined production of chemicals, iron, steel,
mand for entirely new goods and services, such as teleand other products.[21] Machine tools made the economiphones, radio, television, automobiles, and household apcal production of metal parts possible, so that parts could
pliances, air conditioning, and commercial aviation (after
[22]
be interchangeable. See: Interchangeable parts.
1950), creating enough new demand to stabilize the work
During the Second Industrial Revolution, a major fac- week.[29] The building of highway infrastructures also
tor of productivity growth was the substitution of inan- contributed to post World War II growth, as did capital
imate power for human and animal labor. Also there investments in manufacturing and chemical industries.[30]
was a great increase power as steam powered electricity The post World War II economy also beneted from the
generation and internal combustion supplanted limited discovery of vast amounts of oil around the world, parwind and water power.[21] Since that replacement, the ticularly in the Middle East. By John W. Kendricks estigreat expansion of total power was driven by contin- mate, three-quarters of increase in U.S. per capita GDP
uous improvements in energy conversion eciency.[23] from 1889 to 1957 was due to increased productivity.[14]
Other major historical sources of productivity were
Economic growth in in the United States slowed down afautomation, transportation infrastructures (canals, railter 1973.[31] In contrast growth in Asia has been strong
[24][25]
roads, and highways),
new materials (steel) and
since then, starting with Japan and spreading to Kopower, which includes steam and internal combustion
rea, China, the Indian subcontinent and other parts of
engines and electricity. Other productivity improveAsia. In 1957 South Korea had a lower per capita GDP
ments included mechanized agriculture and scientic
than Ghana,[32] and by 2008 it was 17 times as high as
agriculture including chemical fertilizers and livestock
Ghanas.[33] The Japanese economic growth has slackand poultry management, and the Green Revolution.
ened considerably since the late 1980s.
Interchangeable parts made with machine tools powered
by electric motors evolved into mass production, which is Productivity in the United States grew at an increasing rate throughout the 19th century and was most
universally used today.[22]
rapid in the early to middle decades of the 20th
Great sources of productivity improvement in the late
century.[34][35][36][37][38] US productivity growth spiked
19th century were railroads, steam ships, horse-pulled
towards the end of the century in 19962004, due to
reapers and combine harvesters, and steam-powered
an acceleration in the rate of technological innovation
factories.[26][27] The invention of processes for makknown as Moores law.[39][40][41][42] After 2004 U.S. proing cheap steel were important for many forms of
ductivity growth returned to the low levels of 1972-96.[39]
mechanization and transportation. By the late 19th century both prices and weekly work hours fell because less
labor, materials, and energy were required to produce
and transport goods. However, real wages rose, allow- 3.3 Capital
ing workers to improve their diet, buy consumer goods
Capital in economics ordinarily refers to physical capiand aord better housing.[26]
tal, which consists of structures and equipment used in
Mass production of the 1920s created overproduction,
business (machinery, factory equipment, computers and
which was arguably one of several causes of the Great
oce equipment, construction equipment, business veDepression of the 1930s.[28] Following the Great Depreshicles, etc.).[3] Up to a point the amount of capital per
sion, economic growth resumed, aided in part by deworker is an important determinant of economic output.

FACTORS AFFECTING ECONOMIC GROWTH

Capital is subject to diminishing returns because of the A 1999 review in the Journal of Economic Literature
amount that can be eectively invested and because of states high inequality lowers growth, perhaps because
the growing burden of depreciation.
it increases social and political instability.[47] A 1992
In the development of economic theory the distribution World Bank report published in the Journal of Developof income was considered to be between labor and the ment Economics said that inequality is negatively, and
robustly, correlated with growth. This result is not highly
owners of land and capital.[43]
dependent upon assumptions about either the form of
the growth regression or the measure of inequality.[48]
NYU economist William Baumol found that substan3.4 New products and services
tial inequality does not stimulate growth because poverty
[49]
Economists Dierk
Another major cause of economic growth is the introduc- reduces labor force productivity.
Herzer
and
Sebastian
Vollmer
found
that increased intion of new products and services and the improvement of
come
inequality
reduces
economic
growth,
but growth itexisting products. New products create demand, which is
[50]
self
increases
income
inequality.
necessary to oset the decline in employment that occurs
through labor saving technology.[40][44]

3.5

Growth phases and sector shares

Economic growth in the U.S. and other developed countries went through phases that aected growth through
changes in the labor force participation rate and the relative sizes of economic sectors. The transition from an
agricultural economy to manufacturing increased the size
of the high output per hour, high productivity growth
manufacturing sector while reducing the size of the lower
output per hour, lower productivity growth agricultural
sector. Eventually high productivity growth in manufacturing reduced the sector size as prices fell and employment shrank relative to other sectors.[45][46] The service
and government sectors, where output per hour and productivity growth is very low, saw increases in share of the
economy and employment.[10]
3.5.1

Business cycle

For more details on this topic, see Business cycle.

Berg and Ostry of the International Monetary Fund found that of


the factors aecting the duration of growth spells (not the rate of
growth) in developed and developing countries, income equality
is more benecial than trade openness, sound political institutions, or foreign investment.[51][52]

According to International Monetary Fund economists,


inequality in wealth and income is negatively correlated
with the duration of economic growth spells (not the rate
of growth).[51] High levels of inequality prevent not just
economic prosperity, but also the quality of a countrys
institutions and high levels of education.[53]
According to economists David Castells-Quintana and
Vicente Royuela, increasing inequality harms economic
growth.[54] High and persistent unemployment, in which
inequality increases, has a negative eect on subsequent
long-run economic growth.[54] Unemployment can harm
growth not only because it is a waste of resources, but
also because it generates redistributive pressures and subsequent distortions, drives people to poverty, constrains
liquidity limiting labor mobility, and erodes self-esteem
promoting social dislocation, unrest and conict.[54] Policies aiming at controlling unemployment and in particular at reducing its inequality-associated eects support
economic growth.[54]

Economists distinguish between short-run economic


changes in production and long-run economic growth.
Short-run variation in economic growth is termed the
business cycle. The business cycle is made up of booms
and drops in production that occur over a period of
months or years. Generally, economists attribute the
ups and downs in the business cycle to uctuations in
aggregate demand. In contrast, economic growth is concerned with the long-run trend in production due to structural causes such as technological growth and factor accumulation. The business cycle moves up and down, creating uctuations around the long-run trend in economic Economist Joseph Stiglitz presented evidence in 2009
that both global inequality and inequality within coungrowth.
tries prevent growth by limiting aggregate demand.[55]
Economist Branko Milanovic, wrote in 2001 that, The
3.6 Income equality
view that income inequality harms growth or that improved equality can help sustain growth has become
For more details on this topic, see Economic inequality. more widely held in recent years. ... The main reason
for this shift is the increasing importance of human capi-

3.7

Demographic changes

tal in development. When physical capital mattered most,


savings and investments were key. Then it was important
to have a large contingent of rich people who could save
a greater proportion of their income than the poor and invest it in physical capital. But now that human capital is
scarcer than machines, widespread education has become
the secret to growth.[56]

5
3.6.1 Equitable growth
Main article: Inclusive growth
While acknowledging the central role economic growth
can potentially play in human development, poverty reduction and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, it is becoming widely understood amongst
the development community that special eorts must
be made to ensure poorer sections of society are able
to participate in economic growth.[65][66][67] The eect
of economic growth on poverty reduction - the growth
elasticity of poverty - can depend on the existing level
of inequality.[68][69] For instance, with low inequality a
country with a growth rate of 2% per head and 40%
of its population living in poverty, can halve poverty in
ten years, but a country with high inequality would take
nearly 60 years to achieve the same reduction.[70][71] In
the words of the Secretary General of the United Nations
Ban Ki-Moon: While economic growth is necessary, it
is not sucient for progress on reducing poverty.[65]

In 1993, Galor and Zeira showed that inequality in the


presence of credit market imperfections has a long lasting detrimental eect on human capital formation and
economic development.[57] A 1996 study by Perotti examined the channels through which inequality may aect
economic growth. He showed that, in accordance with
the credit market imperfection approach, inequality is associated with lower level of human capital formation (education, experience, and apprenticeship) and higher level
of fertility, and thereby lower levels of growth. He found
that inequality is associated with higher levels of redistributive taxation, which is associated with lower levels
of growth from reductions in private savings and investment. Perotti concluded that, more equal societies have
lower fertility rates and higher rates of investment in education. Both are reected in higher rates of growth. Also,
very unequal societies tend to be politically and socially 3.7 Demographic changes
unstable, which is reected in lower rates of investment
Demographic factors may inuence growth by changand therefore growth.[58]
ing the employment to population ratio and the labor
Research by Harvard economist Robert Barro, found that
force participation rate.[10] Industrialization creates a
there is little overall relation between income inequaldemographic transition in which birth rates decline and
ity and rates of growth and investment. According to
the average age of the population increases.
work by Barro in 1999 and 2000, high levels of inequality reduce growth in relatively poor countries but encour- Women with fewer children and better access market emage growth in richer countries.[59][60] A study of Swedish ployment tend to join the labor force in higher percentcounties between 1960 and 2000 found a positive im- ages. There is a reduced demand for child labor and
pact of inequality on growth with lead times of ve years children spend more years in school. The increase in
or less, but no correlation after ten years.[61] Studies of the percentage of women in the labor force in the U.S.
larger data sets have found no correlations for any xed contributed to economic growth, as did the entrance of
[10]
lead time,[62] and a negative impact on the duration of the baby boomers into the work force. See: Spending
[51]
wave
growth.
Some theories developed in the 1970s established possible avenues through which inequality may have a positive
eect on economic development.[51][52] According to a
1955 review, savings by the wealthy, if these increase
with inequality, were thought to oset reduced consumer demand.[63] A 2013 report on Nigeria suggests that
growth has risen with increased income inequality.[64]
Some theories popular from the 1950s to 2011 incorrectly
stated that inequality had a positive eect on economic
development.[51][52] Analyses based on comparing yearly
equality gures to yearly growth rates were misleading
because it takes several years for eects to manifest as
changes to economic growth.[62] IMF economists found
a strong association between lower levels of inequality in
developing countries and sustained periods of economic
growth. Developing countries with high inequality have
succeeded in initiating growth at high rates for a few
years but longer growth spells are robustly associated
with more equality in the income distribution.[52]

4 Negative eects
A number of arguments have been raised against economic growth.[72]

4.1 Resource depletion


See also: Energy returned on energy invested
Many earlier predictions of resource depletion, such as
Thomas Malthus' 1798 predictions about approaching
famines in Europe, The Population Bomb (1968),[73][74]
and the SimonEhrlich wager (1980) [75] have not materialized. Diminished production of most resources has
not occurred so far, one reason being that advancements
in technology and science have allowed some previously

unavailable resources to be produced.[75] In some cases,


substitution of more abundant materials, such as plastics
for cast metals, lowered growth of usage for some metals.
In the case of the limited resource of land, famine was relieved rstly by the revolution in transportation caused by
railroads and steam ships, and later by the Green Revolution and chemical fertilizers, especially the Haber process
for ammonia synthesis.[76][77]

Production (10 9 bbls/yr)

14

10
8
6
4

cumulative
production
90x10 9 bbls

is creating a scenario where we could see a systemic collapse of our planets natural resources.[79][80]
Concerns about possible negative eects of growth on
the environment and society led some to advocate lower
levels of growth. This led to the ideas of uneconomic
growth and de-growth and Green parties that argue that
economies are part of a global society and global ecology,
and cannot outstrip their natural growth without damaging those.
Those more optimistic about the environmental impacts
of growth believe that, though localized environmental
eects may occur, large-scale ecological eects are minor. The argument, as stated by commentator Julian Lincoln Simon, states that if these global-scale ecological effects exist, human ingenuity will nd ways to adapt to
them.[81]

proven reserves
250x10 9 bbls

12

NEGATIVE EFFECTS

Future discoveries
910x10 9 bbls

2
0
1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

Year

M. King Hubbert's prediction of world petroleum production


rates. Virtually all economic sectors rely heavily on petroleum.

In the case of minerals, lower grades of mineral resources


are being extracted, requiring higher inputs of capital and
energy for both extraction and processing.[78] An example
is natural gas from shale and other low permeability rock,
which can be developed with much higher inputs of energy, capital, and materials than conventional gas in previous decades. Another example is oshore oil and gas,
which has exponentially increasing cost as water depth
increases.

4.2

Environmental impact

4.2.1 Implications of global warming


see Economics of global warming
Up to the present there are close correlations of economic
growth with carbon dioxide emissions across nations, although there is also a considerable divergence in carbon
intensity (carbon emissions per GDP).[82] Globally, Tim
Garrett observes that the emissions rate is directly related
to the historical accumulation of economic wealth.[83]
The Stern Review notes that the prediction that, Under business as usual, global emissions will be sucient
to propel greenhouse gas concentrations to over 550ppm
CO2 by 2050 and over 650700ppm by the end of this
century is robust to a wide range of changes in model
assumptions. The scientic consensus is that planetary
ecosystem functioning without incurring dangerous risks
requires stabilization at 450550 ppm.[84]

As a consequence, growth-oriented environmental


economists propose massive government intervention
See also: The Limits to Growth
Critics such as the Club of Rome argue that a narrow into switching sources of energy production, favouring
wind, solar, hydroelectric, and nuclear. This would
largely conne use of fossil fuels to either domestic
cooking needs (such as for kerosene burners) or where
carbon capture and storage technology can be costeective and reliable.[85] The Stern Review, published
by the United Kingdom Government in 2006, concluded
that an investment of 1% of GDP (later changed to
2%) would be sucient to avoid the worst eects of
climate change, and that failure to do so could risk
climate-related costs equal to 20% of GDP. Because
carbon capture and storage is as yet widely unproven,
and its long term eectiveness (such as in containing
carbon dioxide 'leaks) unknown, and because of current
costs of alternative fuels, these policy responses largely
rest on faith of technological change.
Forest in Indonesia being cut for palm oil plantation.

On the other hand, British conservative politician and


journalist Nigel Lawson claimed that people in a hundred
view of economic growth, combined with globalization, years time would be seven times as well o as we are to-

6.3

Endogenous growth theory

day, therefore it is not reasonable to impose sacrices on workers remains constant and economic growth ceases.
the much poorer present generation.[86]
This point is called a steady state.

Physical constraints on growth

Some physical scientists like Al Bartlett regard continuous economic growth as unsustainable.[87][88] Several factors may constrain economic growth - for example: nite,
peaked, or depleted resources.
In 1972, the The Limits to Growth study modeled limitations to innite growth; originally ridiculed,[73][74][89]
these models have been validated and updated.[90][91][92]
Some Malthusians, such as William R. Catton, Jr., author
of the 1980 book Overshoot, express skepticism of the
idea that various technological advancements will make
previously inaccessible or lower-grade resources more
available. Such advances and increases in eciency, they
suggest, merely accelerate the drawing down of nite
resources. Catton refers to the contemporary increases
in rates of resource extraction as, "...stealing ravenously
from the future.[93]

6
6.1

Theories and models


Classical growth theory

The model also notes that countries can overcome this


steady state and continue growing by using new technology. In the long run, output per capita depends on the
rate of saving, but the rate of output growth is independent of the saving rate. The process by which countries
continue growing despite the diminishing returns is exogenous and represents the creation of new technology
that allows production with fewer resources. Technology
improves, the steady state level of capital increases, and
the country invests and grows. One important prediction
of the model, mostly borne out by the data, is that of conditional convergence; the idea that poor countries will
grow faster and catch up with rich countries as long as
they have similar saving rates and technology.
A major shortcoming of the approach is that it does not
explain the sources of technological change.

6.3 Endogenous growth theory


Main article: Endogenous growth theory
Growth theory advanced again with theories of economist
Paul Romer and Robert Lucas, Jr. in the late 1980s and
early 1990s.
Unsatised with the assumption of exogenous technological progress in the Solow-Swan model, economists
worked to endogenize technology in the 1980s.
They developed the endogenous growth theory that
includes a mathematical explanation of technological
advancement.[98][99] This model also incorporated a new
concept of human capital, the skills and knowledge that
make workers productive. Unlike physical capital, human capital has increasing rates of return. Research
done in this area has focused on what increases human
capital (e.g. education) or technological change (e.g.
innovation).[100]

In classical (Ricardian) economics, the theory of production and the theory of growth are based on the theory or
law of variable proportions, whereby increasing either of
the factors of production (labor or capital), while holding
the other constant and assuming no technological change,
will increase output, but at a diminishing rate that eventually will approach zero. These concepts have their origins in Thomas Malthuss theorizing about agriculture.
Malthuss examples included the number of seeds harvested relative to the number of seeds planted (capital)
on a plot of land and the size of the harvest from a plot
of land versus the number of workers employed.[94] See:
Diminishing returns
6.4 Unied growth theory
Criticisms of classical growth theory are that technology,
the most important factor in economic growth, is held Unied growth theory was developed by Oded Galor
and his co-authors to address the inability of endogenous
constant and that economies of scale are ignored.[95]
growth theory to explain key empirical regularities in the
growth processes of individual economies and the world
economy as a whole. Endogenous growth theory was sat6.2 Solow-Swan model
ised with accounting for empirical regularities in the
Robert Solow[96] and Trevor Swan[97] developed what growth process of developed economies over the last huneventually became the main model used in growth eco- dred years. As a consequence, it was not able to explain
nomics in the 1950s. This model assumes that there are the qualitatively dierent empirical regularities that chardiminishing returns to capital and labor. Capital accumu- acterized the growth process over longer time horizons in
lates out of saving but its level per worker decreases due both developed and less developed economies. Unied
to depreciation and population growth. As a result of di- growth theories are endogenous growth theories that are
minishing returns to capital economies eventually reach consistent with the entire process of development, and
a point where, absent technological progress, capital per in particular the transition from the epoch of Malthusian

THEORIES AND MODELS

stagnation that had characterized most of the process of colonizers) that are not properly placed regarding the gedevelopment to the contemporary era of sustained eco- ographical locations of dierent ethnic groups, creating
nomic growth.[101]
internal disputes and conicts that hinder development.
In another example, societies that emerged in colonies
without solid native populations established better prop6.5 The big push
erty rights and incentives for long-term investment than
those where native populations were large.[106]
One popular theory in the 1940s was the Big Push, which
suggested that countries needed to jump from one stage of
development to another through a virtuous cycle, in which
large investments in infrastructure and education coupled with private investments would move the economy 6.8 Human capital and growth
to a more productive stage, breaking free from economic
paradigms appropriate to a lower productivity stage.[102] One ubiquitous element of both theoretical and empirThe idea was revived and formulated rigorously, in the ical analyses of economic growth is the role of human
late 1980s by Kevin Murphy, Andrei Schleifer and Robert capital. The skills of the population enter into both neoVishny.[103]
classical and endogenous growth models.[107] The most
commonly used measure of human capital is the level of
school attainment in a country, building upon the data de6.6 Schumpeterian growth
velopment of Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee.[108] This
measure of human capital, however, requires the strong
Schumpeterian growth is an economic theory named af- assumption that what is learned in a year of schooling is
ter the 20th-century Austrian economist Joseph Schum- the same across all countries. It also presumes that hupeter. The approach explains growth as a consequence man capital is only developed in formal schooling, conof innovation and a process of creative destruction that trary to the extensive evidence that families, neighborcaptures the dual nature of technological progress: in hoods, peers, and health also contribute to the developterms of creation, entrepreneurs introduce new products ment of human capital. To measure human capital more
or processes in the hope that they will enjoy temporary accurately, Eric Hanushek and Dennis Kimko introduced
monopoly-like prots as they capture markets. In doing measures of mathematics and science skills from internaso, they make old technologies or products obsolete. This tional assessments into growth analysis.[109] They found
can be seen as an annulment of previous technologies, that quality of human capital was very signicantly rewhich makes them obsolete, and "...destroys the rents lated to economic growth. This approach has been exgenerated by previous innovations. (Aghion 855)[104] A tended by a variety of authors, and the evidence indicates
major model that illustrates Schumpeterian growth is the that economic growth is very closely related to the cogniAghion-Howitt model.[105]
tive skills of the population.[110]

6.7

Institutions and growth

According to Acemolu, Simon Johnson and James


Robinson, the positive correlation between high income
and cold climate is a by-product of history. Europeans
adopted very dierent colonization policies in dierent
colonies, with dierent associated institutions. In places
where these colonizers faced high mortality rates (e.g.,
due to the presence of tropical diseases), they could not
settle permanently, and they were thus more likely to establish extractive institutions, which persisted after independence; in places where they could settle permanently
(e.g. those with temperate climates), they established institutions with this objective in mind and modeled them
after those in their European homelands. In these 'neoEuropes better institutions in turn produced better development outcomes. Thus, although other economists
focus on the identity or type of legal system of the colonizers to explain institutions, these authors look at the
environmental conditions in the colonies to explain institutions. For instance, former colonies have inherited corrupt governments and geo-political boundaries (set by the

6.9 Energy consumption and eciency


theories
For more details on Energy eciency, see Productivity
improving technologies (historical) Energy eciency.
Energy economic theories emphasize the role of energy
consumption and energy eciency as important historical causes of economic growth. Increases in energy efciency were a portion of the increase in Total factor
productivity.[14] Some of the most technologically important innovations in history involved increases in energy eciency. These include the great improvements
in eciency of conversion of heat to work, the reuse of
heat, the reduction in friction and the transmission of
power, especially through electrication.[111][112] Electricity consumption and economic growth are strongly
correlated.[113] Per capita electric consumption correlates almost perfectly with economic development.[114]

See also
Degrowth
Export-oriented industrialization
Growth accounting
List of countries by real GDP growth rate

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10

[31] St. Louis Federal Reserve Real GDP per capita in


the U.S. rose from $17,747 in 1960 to $26,281 in
1973 for a growth rate of 3.07%/yr. Calculation:
(26,281/17,747)^(1/13). From 1973 to 2007 the growth
rate was 1.089%. Calculation: (49,571/26,281)^(1/34)
From 2000 to 2011 average annual growth was 0.64%.

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12

9 FURTHER READING

[98] D. Romer, 1986


[99]
[100]

[101]

[102]
[103]
[104]

[111] Landes, David. S. (1969). The Unbound Prometheus:


Technological Change and Industrial Development in
Lucas, 1988
Western Europe from 1750 to the Present. Cambridge,
New York: Press Syndicate of the University of CamElhanah Helpman, The Mystery of Economic Growth,
bridge. pp. 289, 293. ISBN 0-521-09418-6.
Harvard University Press, 2004.
[112] Devine, Jr., Warren D. (1983). From Shafts to Wires:
Historical Perspective on Electrication, Journal of EcoGalor O., 2005, From Stagnation to Growth: Unied
nomic History, Vol. 43, Issue 2 (PDF). p. 355.
Growth Theory. Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier
[113] Committee on Electricity in Economic Growth Energy Engineering Board Commission on Engineering and
Paul Rosenstein-Rodan
Technical Systems National Research Council (1986).
Electricity in Economic Growth. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. pp. 16, 40. ISBN 0-309-036771<Available as free .pdf download>
Quote from Philippe Aghion, 2002, Schumpeterian
Growth Theory and the Dynamics of Income Inequality,
[114] Paepke, C. Owen (1992). The Evolution of Progress: The
Econometrica, 70(3), 855882.
End of Economic Growth and the Beginning of Human
Also see Wendy Carlin and David Soskice, 2006,
Transformation. New York, Toronto: Random House. p.
Macroeconomics: Imperfections, Institutions & Policies,
109. ISBN 0-679-41582-3.
specically chapter 14.

[105] Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt, 1992, A Model


of Growth Through Creative Destruction, Econometrica,
60(2), 323351.
Philippe Aghion, 2002, Schumpeterian Growth Theory
and the Dynamics of Income Inequality, Econometrica,
70(3), 855882.
[106] Daron Acemolu, Simon Johnson and James A.
Robinson.The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. American Economic
Review 91(5): 1369401. 2001.
[107] Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer, and David Weil.
1992. A contribution to the empirics of economic
growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, no. 2
(May): 407437
Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, Gernot Doppelhofer, and Ronald
I. Miller. 2004. Determinants of long-term growth: A
Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) approach. American Economic Review 94, no. 4 (September): 813835.
LudRomer, Paul. 1990. Human capital and growth:
Theory and evidence. Carnegie-Rochester Conference
Series on Public Policy 32: 251286.
[108] Barro, Robert J., and Jong-Wha Lee. 2001. International data on educational attainment: Updates and implications. Oxford Economic Papers 53, no. 3 (July): 541
563.
[109] Hanushek, Eric A., and Dennis D. Kimko. 2000.
Schooling, labor force quality, and the growth of nations. American Economic Review 90, no. 5 (December):
11841208
[110] Hanushek, Eric A., and Ludger Woessmann. 2008.
The role of cognitive skills in economic development.
Journal of Economic Literature 46, no. 3 (September):
607668 .
Hanushek, Eric A., and Ludger Woessmann. 2011.
How much do educational outcomes matter in OECD
countries?" Economic Policy, 26, no. 67: 427491.

9 Further reading
Argyrous, G., Forstater, M and Mongiovi, G. (eds.)
(2004) Growth, Distribution, And Eective Demand:
Essays in Honor of Edward J. Nell. New York: M.E.
Sharpe.
Barro, Robert J. (1997) Determinants of Economic
Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study. MIT
Press: Cambridge, MA.
Galor, O. (2005) From Stagnation to Growth: Unied Growth Theory. Handbook of Economic
Growth, Elsevier.
Grier, Kevin (2008). Empirics of Economic Growth.
The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics (2nd ed.).
Library of Economics and Liberty. ISBN 9780865976658. OCLC 237794267.
Halevi, Joseph; Laibman, David and Nell, Edward
J. (eds.) (1992) Beyond the Steady State: Essays in
the Revival of Growth Theory, edited with, London,
UK:
Hueting, Roe (2011) The future of the Environmentally sustainable national income. kologisches
Wirtschaften, 4/2011, 30-35
Jones, Charles I. (2002) Introduction to Economic
Growth 2nd ed. W. W. Norton & Company: New
York, N.Y.
Kirzner, Israel.
trepreneurship

(1973) Competition and En-

Lucas, Robert E., Jr. (2003) The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future, Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis, Annual Report online edition

10.2

Data

Mises, Ludwig E. (1949) Human Action 1998


reprint by the Mises Institute

13
Research and Degrowth network Academic association dedicated to research, awareness raising, and
events organization around the topic of degrowth.

Paepke, C. Owen. The Evolution of Progress: The


End of Economic Growth and the Beginning of Human Transformation. New York, Toronto: Random 10.2 Data
House. ISBN 0-679-41582-3.
Angus Maddisons Historical Dataseries Series for
Puthenkalam, John Joseph, Integrating Freedom,
almost all countries on GDP, Population and GDP
Democracy and Human Rights into Theories of
per capita from the year 0 up to 2003
Economic Growth, Manila, 1998.
OECD Economic growth statistics
Romer, Paul M. (2008). Economic Growth. The
Concise Encyclopedia of Economics (2nd ed.).
multinational data sets easy to use data set showing
Library of Economics and Liberty. ISBN 978gdp, per capita and population, by country and re0865976658. OCLC 237794267.
gion, 1970 to 2008. Updated regularly.
Schumpeter, Jospeph A. (1912) The Theory of Economic Development 1982 reprint, Transaction Publishers
Vladimir N. Pokrovskii (2011) Econodynamics. The
Theory of Social Production, Springer, Berlin.
Weil, David N. (2008) Economic Growth 2nd ed.
Addison Wesley.

10
10.1

External links
Articles and lectures

Economic growth. Encyclopdia Britannic.


2007.
Encyclopdia Britannica Online.
17
November 2007.
Beyond Classical and Keynesian Macroeconomic
Policy. Paul Romer's plain-English explanation of
endogenous growth theory.
Does Economic Growth increase Living Standards?
CEPR Economics Seminar Series Two seminars on
the importance of growth with economists Dean
Baker and Mark Weisbrot
On global economic history by Jan Luiten van Zanden. Explores the idea of the inevitability of the Industrial Revolution.
The Economist Has No Clothes essay by Robert
Nadeau in Scientic American on the basic assumptions behind current economic theory
World Growth Institute. An organization dedicated
to helping the developing world realize its full potential via economic growth.
Economics for Everyone- Evaluating Economic
Growth
Understanding the world today Multiple reports on
economic growth

14

11

11
11.1

TEXT AND IMAGE SOURCES, CONTRIBUTORS, AND LICENSES

Text and image sources, contributors, and licenses


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11.2

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File:Berg_Ostry_2011_Chart_4.gif Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/Berg_Ostry_2011_Chart_4.gif License: Public domain Contributors: Equality and Eciency Finance and Development, September 2011, Vol. 48, No. 3 Original artist:
Andrew G. Berg and Jonathan D. Ostry, International Monetary Fund
File:Cost_of_chicken_in_time_worked.jpg Source:
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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/Cost_of_chicken_in_

Transferred from en.wikipedia by SreeBot Original artist: Phmoreno at en.wikipedia


File:Forest_of_Bangka_Island.jpg Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Forest_of_Bangka_Island.jpg License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Taman Renyah
File:Gdp_accumulated_change.png Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/45/Gdp_accumulated_change.png License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: WP EN. Source of the gures : IMF World Economic Database, Gross domestic product, constant
prices, annual percent change Original artist: en:User:Ultramarine
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File:PPF_expansion.svg Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ef/PPF_expansion.svg License: CC-BY-SA-3.0
Contributors:
Production_Possibilities_Frontier_Curve.svg Original artist: Production_Possibilities_Frontier_Curve.svg: User:Everlong

11.3

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15

File:Unbalanced_scales.svg Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fe/Unbalanced_scales.svg License: Public domain Contributors: ? Original artist: ?


File:WeltBIPWorldgroupOECDengl.PNG
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WeltBIPWorldgroupOECDengl.PNG License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Alex1011

11.3

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