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ARTICLE NO.
UE972042
1. INTRODUCTION
Out of the seventy-five developing and transitional economies with
populations greater than five million, all but twelve claim to have embarked on some type of transfer of power to local governments Dillinger
w7x.. Fiscal decentralization, or the devolution of fiscal power from the
national government to subnational governments, is seen as part of a
reform package to improve efficiency in the public sector, to increase
competition among subnational governments in delivering public services,
and to stimulate economic growth Bahl and Linn w1x, Bird and Wallich
w4x..
The basic economic argument in favor of fiscal decentralization is based
on two complementary assumptions: 1. decentralization will increase
economic efficiency because local governments are better positioned than
the national government to deliver public services as a result of information advantage; and 2. population mobility and competition among local
governments for delivery of public services will ensure the matching of
preferences of local communities and local governments Tiebout w15x;
*For criticisms, suggestions and help, we thank Richard Bird, Jan Brueckner, Shantayanan
Devarajan, Andrew Feltenstein, Avner Greif, Bert Hofman, Gregory Ingram, Ronald McKinnon, Charles McLure, Wallace Oates, Yingyi Qian, Anwar Shah, Hedy Sladovich, Barry
Weingast, Danyang Xie, Tao Zhang, and seminar participants at Stanford University, Wuhan
University, and the World Bank. We are most grateful to two referees and Jan Brueckner for
their detailed suggestions, which led to a substantial revision of this paper.
244
0094-1190r98 $25.00
Copyright Q 1998 by Academic Press
All rights of reproduction in any form reserved.
245
246
2.1.
2.2.
s s us g ,
l s ul g ,
2.3.
2.4.
H0
c 1y s y 1
1ys
eyr t dt,
2.5.
s 1 y t . y y c s 1 y t . k a f b sg l v y c.
2.6.
We further assume a constant tax rate along the balanced growth path.
Given total government spending g, a constant tax rate t , and the shares
of spending by different levels of governments u i s, i s f, s, l ., the representative agents choice of consumption is determined by maximizing 2.5.
subject to 2.6. and the governments budget allocation. Along the balanced growth path, the solution for the per capita growth rate of the
1
The use of more general functional forms such as the CES would not alter our analysis
qualitatively; see Davoodi, Xie, and Zou w5x and Devarajan, Swaroop, and Zou w6x.
247
economy is given by
dyrdt
y
1 y t . t 1y a r aau fb r ausg r au lv r a y r .
2.7.
Equation 2.7. 2 shows that the long-run growth rate of per capita output
is a function of the tax rate and the shares of spending by different levels
of government. It forms the basis for our empirical investigation of the
relationship between fiscal decentralization and growth. Following the
literature on fiscal federalism, we regard a country as more fiscally
centralized if it has a higher value of the federal spending share u f .
It is important to note that, for a given share of total government
spending in GDP, a reallocation of public spending among different levels
of governments can lead to higher economic growth if the existing allocation is different from the growth-maximizing expenditure shares. To show
this point, we maximize the growth rate in 2.7. by choosing u f , us , and u l
subject to the constraint u f q us q u l s 1. The growth-maximizing government budget shares are
u fU s
b
bqgqv
usU s
g
bqgqv
u lU s
v
bqgqv
3.1.
248
3
See Barro and Sala-i-Martin w2x for cross-country growth regressions on five- and ten-year
average data.
249
250
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.53
0.69.
y0.04
y0.58.
y0.07
y1.86.
y1.09
y2.02.
y2.34
y4.00.
y1.19
y1.91.
4.41
1.55.
y0.06
y0.85.
y0.07
y1.85.
y1.21
y2.24.
y2.54
y4.28.
y1.45
y2.26.
y1.14
y1.61.
5.53
1.80.
y0.04
y0.49.
y0.06
y1.47.
y1.01
y1.58.
y2.45
y3.23.
y0.98
y1.09.
y1.43
y1.90.
y0.04
y1.05.
48.78
3.60.
y0.06
y0.81.
y0.06
y1.56.
y0.13
y0.20.
y0.77
y0.87.
0.99
0.95.
y1.93
y2.63.
y0.04
y1.25.
y5.86
y3.27.
51.95
3.98.
y0.01
y0.14.
y0.08
y2.00.
y0.17
y0.26.
y0.60
y0.71.
1.39
1.36.
y2.91
y3.73.
y0.06
y1.68.
y6.17
y3.58.
0.23
2.95.
Population growth
Initial human
capital
Initial per capita
GDP
Investment share
of GDP
R-square
Obs
No. of countries
F value
Prob ) F
0.53
158
46
2.40
0.0001
0.54
157
45
2.48
0.0001
0.53
145
43
2.22
0.0005
0.58
145
43
2.61
0.0001
0.62
145
43
2.94
0.0001
Developed countries
Indep. var.
Constant
Average tax rate
Fiscal
decentralization
Dummy for 1975]79
Dummy for 1980]84
Dummy for 1985]89
Population growth
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
3.42
1.07.
y0.03
y0.54.
0.01
0.18.
y1.16
y2.66.
y1.81
y3.40.
y0.28
y0.47.
3.55
1.01.
y0.03
y0.54.
0.01
0.16.
y1.17
y2.54.
y1.83
y3.23.
y0.29
y0.47.
y0.06
y0.09.
2.91
0.69.
y0.01
y0.20.
0.02
0.42.
y1.46
y2.84.
y2.29
y3.51.
y0.64
y0.83.
y0.50
y0.67.
104.59
4.89.
y0.01
y0.18.
0.04
0.77.
0.25
0.45.
0.95
1.12.
3.44
3.29.
y0.13
y0.21.
97.73
4.57.
y0.02
y0.38.
0.04
0.77.
0.46
0.83.
1.37
1.57.
3.86
3.64.
y0.46
y0.73.
251
1.
2.
y0.01
y0.25.
Initial human
Capital
Initial per capita
GDP
Investment share
of GDP
R-square
Obs
No. of countries
F value
Prob ) F
3.
0.58
72
19
2.93
0.0008
0.58
72
19
2.75
0.0002
0.60
66
18
2.58
0.0036
4.
y0.01
y0.57.
y11.09
y4.82.
0.75
66
18
4.75
0.0001
5.
y0.01
y0.72.
y10.59
y4.65.
0.12
1.62.
0.76
66
18
4.85
0.0001
Developing countries
Indep. var.
Constant
Average tax rate
Fiscal
decentralization
Dummy for 1975]79
Dummy for 1980]84
Dummy for 1985]89
1.
3.46
1.14.
y0.17
y1.28.
y0.08
y1.46.
y0.85
y0.91.
y2.46
y2.55.
y1.64
y1.64.
Population growth
2.
8.40
2.06.
y0.19
y1.51.
y0.07
y1.36.
y0.88
y0.96.
y2.69
y2.81.
y2.15
y2.11.
y2.00
y1.77.
Initial human
capital
Initial per capita
GDP
Investment share
of GDP
R-square
Obs
No. of countries
F value
Prob ) F
0.54
86
27
2.04
0.0105
0.57
85
26
2.23
0.0051
3.
9.75
2.14.
y0.17
y1.19.
y0.06
y1.11.
y0.21
y0.18.
y1.94
y1.42.
y0.86
y0.51.
y2.17
y1.82.
y0.07
y0.99.
0.56
79
25
1.91
0.0221
4.
5.
63.76
3.25.
y0.25
y1.79.
y0.06
y1.18.
0.91
0.79.
0.10
0.07.
1.13
0.66.
y3.33
y2.81.
y0.07
y1.02.
y7.08
y2.82.
69.64
3.76.
y0.14
y1.04.
y0.07
y1.48.
0.40
0.37.
y0.34
y0.25.
1.22
0.75.
y4.81
y3.89.
y0.09
y1.37.
y7.69
y3.26.
0.32
2.71.
0.62
79
25
2.37
0.0036
0.68
79
25
2.84
0.0006
252
1.
1.51
0.80.
y0.04
y0.48.
y0.10
y2.18.
y1.30
y2.84.
Population growth
2.
2.52
0.89.
y0.05
y0.54.
y0.10
y2.16.
y1.34
y2.85.
y0.41
y0.48.
Initial human
capital
Initial per capita
GDP
Investment share
of GDP
R-square
Obs
No. of countries
F values
Prob ) F
0.75
87
46
2.38
0.0033
0.75
86
45
2.33
0.0043
3.
5.14
1.48.
y0.07
y0.72.
y0.09
y1.75.
y1.07
y1.66.
y1.14
y1.16.
y0.04
y1.05.
0.75
82
44
2.12
0.0128
4.
60.76
4.56.
y0.11
y1.36.
y0.07
y1.780.
1.05
1.46.
y2.65
y3.03.
y0.05
y1.72.
y7.09
y4.27.
0.84
82
44
3.53
0.0002
5.
60.50
4.51.
y0.08
y0.91.
y0.07
y1.85.
1.10
1.51.
y2.74
y3.08.
y0.05
y1.75.
y7.12
y4.26.
0.06
0.76.
0.85
82
44
2.42
0.0002
Developed countries
Indep. var.
Constant
Average tax rate
Fiscal
decentralization
Dummy for 1980]89
Population growth
Initial human
capital
Initial per capita
GDP
Investment share
of GDP
1.
y0.27
y0.05.
0.09
0.85.
y0.04
y0.52.
y1.09
y1.77.
2.
y3.15
y0.56.
0.13
1.17.
y0.02
y0.28.
y1.07
y1.75.
1.14
1.11.
3.
y2.13
y0.32.
0.14
1.13.
y0.01
y0.16.
y1.31
y1.87.
y0.11
y0.07.
y0.02
y0.46.
4.
80.21
5.73.
0.11
1.73.
0.05
1.37.
1.45
2.52.
0.06
0.08.
y0.02
y1.130.
y9.07
y6.05.
5.
78.15
5.14.
0.10
1.60.
0.05
1.33.
1.55
2.44.
0.05
0.06.
y0.02
y1.08.
y8.92
y5.62.
0.03.
0.46.
253
1.
0.63
38
19
1.31
0.2937
2.
0.66
38
19
1.323
0.2922
3.
0.67
36
19
1.083
0.4596
4.
0.92
36
19
5.647
0.0024
5.
0.93
36
19
5.04
0.0055
Developing countries
Indep. var.
Constant
Average tax rate
Fiscal
decentralization
Dummy for 1980]89
1.
3.79
1.58.
y0.22
y1.64.
y0.11
y1.86.
y1.56
y2.58.
Population growth
2.
5.27
1.47.
y0.22
y1.64.
y0.11
y1.79.
y1.64
y2.59.
y0.64
y0.57.
Initial human
capital
Initial per capita
GDP
Investment share
of GDP
R-square
Obs
No. of countries
F value
Prob ) F
0.82
49
27
2.92
0.0088
0.82
48
26
2.83
0.0121
3.
10.50
2.35.
y0.34
y2.35.
y0.09
y1.53.
0.36
y0.37.
y1.42
y1.22.
y0.11
y1.82.
0.84
46
25
2.99
0.0122
4.
58.38
3.53.
y0.33
y2.82.
y0.08
y1.71.
y1.36
1.39.
y2.89
y2.69.
y0.11
y2.19.
y6.15
y2.97.
0.90
46
25
4.60
0.0015
5.
58.60
3.46.
y0.29
y2.17.
y0.08
y1.72.
1.34
1.34.
y3.01
y2.69.
y0.11
y2.12.
y6.26
y2.94.
0.06
0.57.
0.90
46
25
4.26
0.003
254
255
argument in its favor, may not materialize for developing countries since
revenue collection and expenditure decisions by local governments may
still be constrained by the central government. Fourth, in practice local
governments may not be responsive to local citizens preferences and
needs. This can occur when local officials are not elected by local citizens
and when local citizens may be too poor to vote with their feet.
4. CONCLUSIONS
In this paper we have provided a simple endogenous growth model
showing how the degree of fiscal decentralization affects the growth rate of
the economy. We used a cross-country panel data set of 46 developed and
developing countries over the 1970]89 period to investigate whether fiscal
decentralization has any growth impact. From our sample, developed
countries are on average more decentralized than developing countries
33% vs. 20%. and tend to have a higher per capita GDP growth rate 2%
vs. 1.6%.. But can one conclude that there is a positive relationship
between decentralization and growth? Given other determinants of growth,
we find a negative relationship for developing countries and the world, and
none for developed countries. The point estimate for the developing
country sample is significant at the 10% level in a one-tail test, which is an
appropriate test under the null hypothesis that fiscal decentralization leads
to higher growth. Therefore, on the basis of this test and the significance
level we clearly reject the hypothesis of a positive relationship between
fiscal decentralization and growth.
Finally, we want to draw attention to one major limitation of this
preliminary study. Our measure of fiscal decentralization, which is the
subnational government share of total government expenditure, may not
reflect the subnational governments autonomy in expenditure decisionmaking. As Musgrave w10x has pointed out, subnational governments that
act as administrative agents of national governments do not necessarily
reflect true expenditure decentralization. Further work will look into other
related issues of fiscal decentralization such as local autonomy, local
revenue collection, the composition of local spending, and intergovernmental transfers. 4
256
APPENDIX
List of the 46 Countries in the Sample
Argentina
Chile
Czechoslovakia, Former
Finland
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Israel
Italy
Kenya
Malawi
Malaysia
Mexico
Netherlands Antilles
Norway
Paraguay
Philippines
Romania
Sweden
Thailand
Uruguay
Zimbabwe
Belgium
Denmark
France
Ireland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
United Kingdom
Poland
China
Australia
Austria
Bolivia
Brazil
Canada
Colombia
South Africa
Switzerland
United States
Germany
Spain
Yugoslavia, Former Fed. Rep.
REFERENCES
1. R. Bahl and J. F. Linn, Urban Public Finance in Developing Countries, New York,
Oxford Univer. Press 1992..
2. R. Barro and X. Sala-i-Martin, Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, New York 1995..
3. R. Barro, Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth, Journal of
Political Economy, 98, S103]S125 1990..
4. R. Bird and C. Wallich, Fiscal decentralization and intergovernmental relations in
transition economies: Towards a systematic framework of analysis, Country Economics Department Working Paper, World Bank, Washington D.C. 1993..
5. H. Davoodi, D. Xie, and H. Zou, Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in the
United States, Mimeo, Policy Research Department, World Bank 1995..
6. S. Devarajan, V. Swaroop, and H. Zou, The composition of public expenditure and
economic growth, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 313]344 1996..
7. W. Dillinger, Decentralization and its implications for urban service delivery, Urban
Management and Municipal Finance Discussion Paper No. 16, The World Bank,
Washington D.C. 1994..
257