Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2015-06-03
Presentation Outline
1.
Background
2.
3.
4.
Inflation outlook
5.
6.
Fiscal outlook
7.
Immediate priorities
2015-06-03
Source: https://adb.exposure.co/nepal-earthquake?home-topbox
2015-06-03
Background
Great Gorkha Earthquake: 7.8 magnitude earthquake
struck Nepal on 25 April
Over 270 aftershocks
o 6.7M on 26 April and 7.3M on 12 May
4.6
4.5
3.8
4
3.5
0
FY2012
FY2013R
Agriculture
FY2014P
Industry
Services
FY2015f
FY2016f
Source: https://adb.exposure.co/nepal-earthquake?home-topbox
2015-06-03
Agricultural Outlook
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Paddy
Maize
Millet
Buckwheat
Wheat
Production
Area
Production
Area
Production
Area
Production
Area
Production
Area
Production
Area
Barley
2015-06-03
Industrial Outlook
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2015-06-03
Source: https://adb.exposure.co/nepal-earthquake?home-topbox
2015-06-03
10
Services Outlook
Tourist arrival by purpose of visit in 2013
300
250
Others
6.8%
Not
specified
9.7%
No. of room
No. of bed
200
Convention
2.0%
Official
4.7%
150
100
Piligrimage
9.0%
Holiday
pleasure
51.5%
50
Kavrepalanchowk
Makawanpur
Ramechhap
Lalitpur
Nuwakot
Business
3.5%
Trekking &
mountaineer
ing
12.8%
Kathmandu
11
2015-06-03
12
Inflation Outlook
12
10
9.1
8.2
8.3
8.5
8
6
4
2
0
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015f
FY2016f
Nepal-CPI
13
4.7
4
3.4
3
2
1.0
1
0
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015f
FY2016f
-1
-2
2015-06-03
-1.5
Trade deficit up
CAB in negative
territory
14
Rasuwa
Bhaktapur
Lalitpur
Okhaldhunga
Dolakha
Ramechhap
Kathmandu
Gorkha
Nuwakot
Sindhuli
Dhading
Sindhupalchowk
Kavrepalanchowk
Makawanpur
Remittances (% of HH income)
2015-06-03
15
Fiscal Outlook
In medium-term
Revenue growth contingent upon economic activities picking
up pace and tax rate changes
Expenditure will bulge, mostly capital spending
Fiscal deficit will go up
Higher internal and external borrowing
Fiscal resilience and discipline also important
16
7
6
70
5
60
50
40
30
2
20
80
10
0
0
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2012
FY2013R
FY2014P
17
Financing Avenues
Rationalization of ballooning recurrent expenditure could open up
some space to increase capital spending, which stands at a mere
3.3% of GDP
Apart of the fund could be raised domestically by selling bills and
bonds.
Raising revenue by a special time-bound tax aimed for
reconstruction
2015-06-03
18
Partnership Forum for Nepal, 48th Annual Meeting, ADB (3 May 2015)
Source: https://adb.exposure.co/nepal-earthquake?home-topbox
2015-06-03
19
2015-06-03
20
21
22
Source: https://adb.exposure.co/nepal-earthquake?home-topbox
2015-06-03
23
THANK YOU!
2015-06-03
24