ClimatologicalInformationServices>ClimateChange>GreenHouseEffect

WhatisGreenhouseEffect?
TheGreenhouseEffectisatermthatreferstoaphysicalpropertyoftheEarth's
atmosphere.IftheEarthhadnoatmosphere,itsaveragesurfacetemperaturewouldbevery
lowofabout18ratherthanthecomfortable15foundtoday.Thedifferencein
temperatureisduetoasuiteofgasescalledgreenhousegaseswhichaffecttheoverallenergy
balanceoftheEarth'ssystembyabsorbinginfraredradiation.Initsexistingstate,theEarth
atmospheresystembalancesabsorptionofsolarradiationbyemissionofinfraredradiationto
space(Fig.1).Duetogreenhousegases,theatmosphereabsorbsmoreinfraredenergythan
itreradiatestospace,resultinginanetwarmingoftheEarthatmospheresystemandofsurfacetemperature.This
istheNaturalGreenhouseEffect.Withmoregreenhousegasesreleasedtotheatmosphereduetohuman
activity,moreinfraredradiationwillbetrappedintheEarth'ssurfacewhichcontributestotheEnhanced
GreenhouseEffect.

Fig.1Asimplifieddiagramillustratingthegloballongtermradiativebalanceoftheatmosphere.Netinputof
solarradiation(240Wm2)mustbebalancedbynetoutputofinfraredradiation.Aboutathird(103Wm2)of
incomingsolarradiationisreflectedandtheremainderismostlyabsorbedbythesurface.Outgoinginfrared
radiationisabsorbedbygreenhousegasesandbycloudskeepingthesurfaceabout33warmerthanitwould
otherwisebe.

TypesofGreenhousegases
Greenhousegasescompriselessthan1%oftheatmosphere.Theirlevelsaredeterminedbyabalancebetween
sourcesandsinks.Sourcesandsinksareprocessesthatgenerateanddestroygreenhousegasesrespectively.
Humanaffectgreenhousegaslevelsbyintroducingnewsourcesorbyinterferingwithnaturalsinks.
Themajorgreenhousegasesintheatmospherearecarbondioxide(CO2),methane,(CH4),nitrousoxide(N2O),
chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs)andozone(O3).Atmosphericwatervapour(H2O)alsomakesalargecontribution
tothenaturalgreenhouseeffectbutitisthoughtthatitspresenceisnotdirectlyaffectedbyhumanactivity.
CharacteristicsofsomeofthegreenhousegasesareshowninTable1.

GlobalWarmingPotential(GWP)
DifferentgreenhousegasesexertdifferenteffectsontheEarth'senergybalance.Inordertoassistpolicymakersto
measuretheimpactofvariousgreenhousegasesonglobalwarming,theconceptofGlobalWarmingPotentials
(GWPs)wasintroducedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)inits1990report.GWP
reflectstherelativestrengthofindividualgreenhousegaswithrespecttoitsimpactonglobalwarming.Itwas
definedasthecumulativeradiativeforcing*betweenthepresentandsomefuturetimecausedbyaunitmassof
greenhousegasemittednow,expressedrelativetoCO2.TheGWPsdevelopedbyIPCCforanumberof
greenhousegasesareshowninTable2.
GlobalWarmingPotentialstakeintoaccountthedifferingatmosphericlifetimesandabilitiesofvariousgasesto
absorbradiation.DerivationsofGWPsrequiresknowledgeofthefateoftheemittedgas(typicallynotwell
understood)andtheradiativeforcingduetotheamountremainingintheatmosphere(reasonablywell

understood).Hence,GWPsencompasscertainuncertainty,typically+35%relativetoCO2reference.

*Radiativeforcingisdefinedasachangeinaveragenetradiationatthetopofthetroposphere(tropopause)duetoachangein
eithersolarorinfraredradiation.Aradiativeforcingperturbsthebalancebetweenincomingandoutgoingradiation.Apositive
radiativeforcingtendsonaveragetowarmtheEarth'ssurfaceanegativeradiativeforcingtendsonaveragetocooltheEarth's
surface.

Trendsingreenhousegasconcentrations

a)CarbonDioxide(CO2)
HighqualityobservationsoftheconcentrationofCO2beganin1958,withflaskmeasurementsattheMaunaLoa
ObservatoryinHawaii.Fig.2showsthattheaverageannualconcentrationofCO2intheatmospherehasrisen
fromabout315ppmv(partpermillionbyvolume)in1958toaround363ppmvin1997.Thereisaclearannual
cycleintheMaunaLoadatathatcorrespondstotheannualcycleofplantrespirationintheNorthern
Hemisphere:CO2concentrationincreaseduringtheFallandWinteranddeclineduringSpringandSummer.This
cycle,followsthegrowthanddiebackofvegetation,isreversedandofsmalleramplitudeintheSouthern
Hemisphere,anddisappearsalmostentirelyinthedatameasuredneartheEquator.

Fig.2Atmosphericcarbondioxidemonthlymeanmixingratios.DatapriortoMay1974arefromtheScripps
InstitutionofOceanography(
),datasinceMay1974arefromtheU.S.NationalOceanicandAtmospheric
@

Administration(
).Alongtermtrendcurve()isfittedtothemonthlymeanvalues.

b)Methane(CH4)
Therateofincreaseoftheatmosphericabundanceofmethanehasdeclinedoverthelastdecade,slowing
dramaticallyin1991to1992,thoughwithanapparentincreaseinthegrowthrateinlate1993(Fig.3).The
averagetrendover1980to1990isabout13ppbv/year(partperbillionbyvolume/year).

Fig.3AtmosphericmethanemixingratiosfromdiscreteairsamplescollectedatMaunaLoa,Hawaii.A
smoothcurve(red)andlongtermtrend(green)arefittedtothemeasurements(blue).

c)NitrousOxide(N2O)
Overthelastfourdecades,theaveragegrowthrateofN2Oisabout0.25%/year(Fig.4).Currenttropospheric
concentrationofN2Oisaround312to314ppbv.

Fig.4AtmosphericN2Omixingratios.

d)Chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs)
Amongthefamilycompoundsofchlorocarbons,CFCl3(CFC11)andCF2Cl2(CFC12)arereceivingmore
attentionbecauseoftheirlargerconcentrationsandpotentiallysignificanteffectsonstratosphericozone.CFC11
andCFC12havethehighestconcentrationsofthemanmadechlorocarbons,around0.27and0.55ppbv,
respectively(measuredatMaunaLoain1997,Fig.5&6).AsindicatedintheirGWPvalues,thesetwogases
arestronginfraredabsorbers.ItisthoughtthatCFC11andCFC12havecontributedaboutonethirdofthe
radiativeforcingofgasesotherthanCO2duringthe1980s.

Fig.5AtmosphericCFC11mixingratio.

Fig.6AtmosphericCFC12mixingratios.

(Courtesy:MaunaLoaObservatory,Hawaii)

ConsequencesofEnhancedGreenhouseEffect
i)GlobalWarming
Increaseofgreenhousegasesconcentrationcausesareductioninoutgoinginfraredradiation,thus
theEarth'sclimatemustchangesomehowtorestorethebalancebetweenincomingandoutgoing
radiation.ThisclimaticchangewillincludeaglobalwarmingoftheEarth'ssurfaceandthe
loweratmosphereaswarmingupisthesimplestwayfortheclimatetogetridoftheextraenergy.
However,asmallriseintemperaturewillinducemanyotherchanges,forexample,cloudcover
andwindpatterns.Someofthesechangesmayacttoenhancethewarming(positivefeedbacks),
otherstocounteractit(negativefeedbacks).
Usingcomplexclimatemodels,the"IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange"intheirthirdassessmentreport
hasforecastthatglobalmeansurfacetemperaturewillriseby1.4to5.8bytheendof2100.Thisprojection
takesintoaccounttheeffectsofaerosolswhichtendtocooltheclimateaswellasthedelayingeffectsofthe
oceanswhichhavealargethermalcapacity.However,therearemanyuncertaintiesassociatedwiththisprojection
suchasfutureemissionratesofgreenhousegases,climatefeedbacks,andthesizeoftheoceandelay...etc.

ii)SeaLevelRise
Ifglobalwarmingtakesplace,sealevelwillriseduetotwodifferentprocesses.Firstly,warmer
temperaturecausesealeveltoriseduetothethermalexpansionofseawater.Secondly,water
frommeltingglaciersandtheicesheetsofGreenlandandtheAntarcticawouldalsoaddwater
totheocean.ItispredictedthattheEarth'saveragesealevelwillriseby0.09to0.88m
between1990and2100.

PotentialImpactonhumanlife
a)EconomicImpact
Overhalfofthehumanpopulationliveswithin100kilometresofthesea.Mostofthispopulationlivesinurban
areasthatserveasseaports.Ameasurableriseinsealevelwillhaveasevereeconomicimpactonlowlying
coastalareasandislands,forexamples,increasingthebeacherosionratesalongcoastlines,risingsealevel
displacingfreshgroundwaterforasubstantialdistanceinland.
b)AgriculturalImpact
ExperimentshaveshownthatwithhigherconcentrationsofCO2,plantscangrowbiggerandfaster.However,the
effectofglobalwarmingmayaffecttheatmosphericgeneralcirculationandthusalteringtheglobalprecipitation
patternaswellaschangingthesoilmoisturecontentsovervariouscontinents.Sinceitisunclearhowglobal
warmingwillaffectclimateonaregionalorlocalscale,theprobableeffectsonthebiosphereremainsuncertain.
c)EffectsonAquaticsystems
Thelossofcoastalwetlandscouldcertainlyreducefishpopulations,especiallyshellfish.Increasedsalinityin
estuariescouldreducetheabundanceoffreshwaterspeciesbutcouldincreasethepresenceofmarinespecies.
However,thefullimpactonmarinespeciesisnotknown.
d)EffectsonHydrologicalCycle
Globalprecipitationislikelytoincrease.However,itisnotknownhowregionalrainfallpatternswillchange.Some
regionsmayhavemorerainfall,whileothersmayhaveless.Furthermore,highertemperatureswouldprobably
increaseevaporation.Thesechangeswouldprobablycreatenewstressesformanywatermanagementsystems.

Table1
Characteristicsofsomemajorgreenhousegases
Greenhousegas

Sources

CarbonDioxide

(CO2)

1)Burningoffossilfuel

1)OceanUptake

2)Landusechange
(deforestation)

2)Plants
photosynthesis

1)Biomassburning

1)ReactionswithOH

2)Entericfermentation

2)Microorganisms
uptakebysoils

Methane

(CH4)

Sinks

Importanceforclimate
Absorbsinfrared
radiationaffects
stratosphericO3
Absorbsinfrared
radiationaffects
troposphericO3and
OHaffectsstratospheric
O3andH2Oproduces
CO2

3)Ricepaddies

NitrousOxide

(N2O)

1)Biomassburning

1)Removalbysoils

2)Fossilfuel
combustion

2)Stratospheric
photolysisandreaction
withO

Absorbsinfrared
radiationaffects
stratosphericO3

3)Fertilizers
Ozone

(O3)

CarbonMonoxide
(CO)

Photochemical
reactionsinvolvingO2

Catalyticchemical
reactionsinvolving
NOx,ClOxandHOx
species.

Absorbsultravioletand
infraredradiation

1)Plantemissions

1)Soiluptake

2)Manmaderelease
(transport,industrial)

2)ReactionswithOH

AffectsstratosphericO3
andOHcycles
producesCO2

Chlorofluorocarbons Industrialproduction
(CFCs)

SulphurDioxide

(SO2)

1)Volcanoes
2)CoalandBiomass
burning

Insignificantin
troposphere,
dissociatedin
stratosphere
(photolysisand
reactionwithO)

Absorbsinfrared
radiationaffects
stratosphericO3

1)Dryandwet
deposition

Formsaerosols,which
scattersolarradiation

2)ReactionswithOH

Table2
GlobalWarmingPotentials(GWPs)followingtheinstantaneousinjectionof1Kgofeach
Greenhousegas,relativeto1KgofCO2
(BasedonIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeThirdAssessmentReport,2001)

Greenhousegas

Estimated
Lifetime
(years)

GlobalWarmingPotential
20years

100years

500years

CarbonDioxide(CO2)

Variable

Methane(CH4)

12.0

62

23

NitrousOxide(N2O)

114

275

296

156

Chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs)

i)

CFCl3(CFC11)

45

6300

4600

1600

ii)

CF2Cl2(CFC12)

100

10200

10600

5200

iii)

CClF3(CFC13)

640

10000

14000

16300

iv)

C2F3Cl3(CFC113)

85

6100

6000

2700

v)

C2F4Cl2(CFC114)

300

7500

9800

8700

vi)

C2F5Cl(CFC115)

1700

4900

7200

9900