En Mundo en El 2050

Logistics 2050:
A Scenario Study
Project Presentation
Congreso Internacional Sala Logstica Caribe 2012

Cartagena Colombia November 29th & 30th
Alejandro Adelsohn SSA Sales Head DHL Global Forwarding
Background:
Continue Series of Thought Leadership Publications
Delphi Study
2009
Towards Sustainable
Logistics
2010
Logistics 2050: A Scenario Study

2011/2012
is a strategic initiative
within the Groups 2011
Comms Strategy
will continue the
Delivering Tomorrow
publication series which
started in 2009 with the
Delphi study and
continued in 2010 with
Towards Sustainable
Logistics
Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Deutsche Post DHL | Page
Project Overview Logistics 2050
Objective:
Delivering the first comprehensive and far-reaching scenario study

on the future of logistics
Time horizon: 40 years
Scope: Develop different scenarios of the logistics

environment in 2050
Focus: Scenarios are based on projected developments

of macro-economic, geopolitical, social and
technological drivers
Relevance: Study not only presents different scenarios

but also highlights strategies to respond to the
challenges and opportunities associated with each
scenario
Sources: internal as well as relevant external experts

involved in the development process
It is impossible to predict the future
"It is impossible to
predict the future but also
dangerous not to try."
Henri Deterding, Founder of Royal Dutch Shell
Night Energy Use Early 1970s
1970
Night Energy Use 2005
Today
Logistics 2050 Scenarios Overview
Untamed Economy Impending Collapse
Megaefficiency in Megacities
Customized Lifestyles
Paralyzing Protectionism
5
Global Resilience Local Adaptation
The South is the New North
Nobodys
back yard:
The rise of
Latin
America
Scenario 1: Untamed Economy Impending Collapse
Szenario 1: Untamed Economy Impending Collapse

Key Elements
Logistics
Implications
Unsustainable
economic development
Massively increased
global logistics market
World driven by
materialism
Manufacturers outsource
their logistics needs
Economic shift to Asian

countries
Climate change opens

arctic trade corridors
Trade barriers lifted
Global super grid for

transport
Extreme weather events

threaten established trade
routes
Uncontrolled
exploitation of natural
resources
Destruction of natural
environments
Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 10
Constant race for
resource extraction
Szenario 1: Untamed Economy Impending Collapse
leads to destruction
of ecosystems
Arctic routes have
become navigable
Former developing
countries have
turned into high-tech
locations
Center of economic
power has shifted to
Asia
Vessel size far

bigger than before
Extreme events
have increased
noticeably
Scenario 1: Untamed Economy Impending Collapse

5
Capital Flow in Emerging Economies
Source: Institute of International Finance, IIF.
Growth in China Cities
Fuente: Malkin y Spiegel, Is China Due for a Slowdown?, Reserva Federal de San Francisco.
Scenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities
Szenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities

Key Elements
Megacities have become

epicenters of green growth
Nation-states have
become second-tier
players
Logistics Implications
Global transport with megatransporters between

megacities
Unmanned low orbit

transporters for express
deliveries
Production and services

highly automated
Freight dispatch centers in

cities to pool goods
Manufacturing in robotized
plants
Efficient transport concepts

for local and global
connections
New transport modes like

underground cargo
transporters
Electric vehicles for

deliveries
However: rural regions left

economically behind
Logistics providers become

megacity utilities
Logistics situation in rural

areas very poor
Szenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities
Unmanned low orbit

transporters allow
quick point-to-point
express delivery
Huge unmanned
cargo planes
Majority of
population resides in
urban areas by 2050
Widening gap
between urban and
rural areas
New types of
transportation in
cities
Megacities are well
connected to the
other megacities
worldwide
Scenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities

5
West Needs vs Asia Needs
Source: adapted from M. Witt, INSEAD EMBA course 2004
Product Cycle in the West vs. Cycle in Asia
Source: adapted from M. Witt, INSEAD EMBA course 2004
Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles
Szenario 3: Customized Lifestyles

Key Elements
Individualization has become

a pervasive phenomenon
Long distance transport of

goods drops sharply
Consumers empowered to
design their own products
Regional logistics capabilities

important
Technological progress:
Supply chains less

fragmented
Logistics in 2050 consists of

an online and an offline
element:
Home Fabbing
Local FabShops
Industrial Fabbing
Regionalized trade, local

product flows
International trade of data
and raw materials (for
printers)
Offline segment: raw

material transport &
reverse logistics
Online segment for secure
data transfer
Szenario 3: Customized Lifestyles
Raw material logistics that

serves 3D printing cartridge
manufacturers
More sophisticated items

produced in fab shops
Billions of households owning a

home 3D-printer in 2050
Mobile 3D printing
Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles

5
Income per Person
Economic Diversity vs Income
Exportaciones RRNN
>10% PIB
Exportaciones RRNN
<10% PIB
Economic Diversification
Singapore Diversification
1975 Exports
Papelera
Eq. Transporte
Maquinaria
Pulpa
Madera
Ropa
Maq. Elctrica
Manuf. Madera
Metales no ferrosos
Hierro y acero
Otros
2010 Exports
Electrnica
Reactores, calderas
Papelera
Aceite mineral, petrleo
Hierro y acero
Vehculos
Madera
Barcos
Plsticos
Art. pticos
Otros
Ireland-Diversification
1975 Exports
2009 Exports
Carne
Prod. Farmacuticos
Lacteos
Prod. Qumicos
Animales vivos
Maquinaria no elec
Maquinaria no elec
Perfumes y prod. Aseo
Textiles
Manuf. Miscellaneos
Transaccione especiales
Maquinaria elctrica
Otros
Otros
FUENTE: UNCTAD
Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism
Szenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism

Key Elements
Economic hardship sets

globalization in reverse
Trading mainly within

regional blocs
Entering markets in foreign

trading blocs nearly
impossible
Substantially reduced volume

for global logistics operations
Domestic markets gain

importance
Advantages for regional

champions with good
government relations
Devaluation of logistics:
Few customized solutions
very commoditized business
Regionalized supply chains
Productivity decline
Scarce resources (also due

to protectionism)
International conflicts over

resource deposits as result
Szenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism

Almost no exchange
of goods between
different regions
Switch to locally
available energy
sources
Resource extraction
has increased
Threat of small
conflicts connected
with resource
deposits
Clearing customs
can take several
weeks.
Protectionism is
common practice
International
express and
forwarding segment
shrinking
Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism

5
Exchange Terms vs Price of Commodities
Latam: Terminos de Intercambio y Precio Materias Primas
(ndice 2000T1=100)
Emerging
countries are
taking wealth
from rich
countries
In LATAM 50% Of Exports Come From 27 Products That Have Little Or

No Added Value At All
Commodities as %
Exports as of GDP
of Exp
Argentina
18%
66%
Brasil
11%
64%
Chile
34%
89%
Per
27%
86%
Colombia
18%
77%
Ecuador
36%
90%
Venezuela
30%
98%
Mxico
31%
24%
Amrica Latina
19%
56%
Food & Mining

Mining
Fuels
Diversified industrial Goods
What If ??
Scenario 5: Global Resilience Local Adaptation
Szenario 5: Global Resilience Local Adaptation

Key Elements
The run-up
(first decades of 21st century):
Numerous disasters due to

climate change
Lean production threatened

(vulnerable supply chains)
Result: change in thinking
Supply security top priority
Shorter transport distances

favor companies with regional
roots
Logistics firms hold ready

redundant capacities
Warehouses as buffers
instead of Just in Time
Resilience as new economic

paradigm
Truck, train and ship fleets

used as backup
Change to regionalized supply

chains
Major role for international

providers > financial strength
Disaster relief operations a

successful business
Move towards redundant

systems / supply safety
Quick reactions to production

failures
Disaster relief important

Szenario 5: Global Resilience Local Adaptation
Huge warehouse structures

located close to manufacturer as
buffers
Emergency logistics providers

offer comprehensive disaster
response
Many areas frequently

threatened by disasters
Transport capacities stand ready

for emergencies
Scenario 5: Global Resilience Local Adaptation

SUMMARY
In a volatile environment only one thing is certain: the certainty
of
continuous change.
This type of environment presents a challenge for a company strategy and
requires the highest possible degree of strategic

agility.
Only those who prepare for this environment can be certain that the future will
not only hold challenges
and risks , but also
opportunities.
Thank You
Project Presentation
Credits:
Foro Multilatinas America Economia
Delivering Tomorrow
Friends and Family

En Mundo en El 2050

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Logistics 2050:

Congreso Internacional Sala Logstica Caribe 2012

Logistics 2050: A Scenario Study

Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

Deutsche Post DHL | Page

Project Overview Logistics 2050

Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

Delivering the first comprehensive and far-reaching scenario study

Time horizon: 40 years

Scope: Develop different scenarios of the logistics

Focus: Scenarios are based on projected developments

Relevance: Study not only presents different scenarios

Sources: internal as well as relevant external experts

Deutsche Post DHL | Page

It is impossible to predict the future

Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

Deutsche Post DHL | Page

Night Energy Use Early 1970s

Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

Deutsche Post DHL | Page

Night Energy Use 2005

Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

Deutsche Post DHL | Page

Logistics 2050 Scenarios Overview

Untamed Economy Impending Collapse

Global Resilience Local Adaptation

Deutsche Post DHL | Page

Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

Deutsche Post DHL | Page

The South is the New North

Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

Deutsche Post DHL | Page

Scenario 1: Untamed Economy Impending Collapse

Szenario 1: Untamed Economy Impending Collapse

Economic shift to Asian

Climate change opens

Trade barriers lifted

Global super grid for

Extreme weather events

Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011

Deutsche Post DHL | Page 10

Constant race for

Vessel size far

Scenario 1: Untamed Economy Impending Collapse

Deutsche Post DHL | Page 11

Logistics 2050 Scenarios Overview

Untamed Economy Impending Collapse

Global Resilience Local Adaptation

Deutsche Post DHL | Page 12

Capital Flow in Emerging Economies

Source: Institute of International Finance, IIF.

Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

Deutsche Post DHL | Page

Growth in China Cities

Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

Deutsche Post DHL | Page

Scenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities

Szenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities

Megacities have become

Global transport with megatransporters between

Unmanned low orbit

Production and services

Freight dispatch centers in