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COURSE NAME:
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TOPIC/TITLE:
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REVISED WRITE-UP:
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AND EMAIL ID OF
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III
Corporate Finance
Dr Puja Aggarwal
Valuation Company
ORIGINAL
F
1
PHN: +91-9643989549
EMAIL: ft14arnabsaha@imt.ac.in
Serial Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
Roll Number
140101045
140102030
140102128
140103027
140103116
140103019
Name
Chandni Nigam
Arnab Saha
Sovan Satyaprakash
Anushka Gulati
Nitin Jain
Anand Dubey
CONTENT
Executive Summary.3
About the Company 4
Infosys Ltd
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd
Dr Reddys Laboratories
Discounted Cash Flows..5
Valuation Models..6
Valuation of Infosys Ltd
Using DDM..9
Using FCFE10
Using FCFF11
Findings & Recommendation..12
Valuation of Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd
Using DDM.13
Using FCFE14
Using FCFF15
Findings & Recommendation..16
Valuation of Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd
Using DDM.17
Using FCFE18
Using FCFF19
Findings & Recommendation..20
Exhibit A: Infosys Chart Past 1 Year.21
Exhibit B: Mahindra & Mahindra Chart Past 1 Year...22
Exhibit C: Dr Reddys Laboratories Chart Past 1 Year...23
2 | Page
Bibliography..24
3 | Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The project includes a comprehensive analysis of the cash flows of three Indian
companies namely, Infosys Limited, Mahindra & Mahindra Limited and DR Reddys
Laboratories, for arriving at the intrinsic value of the share of the respective
company. The project aims to gauge whether the share of the company is
undervalued or overvalued based on the fundamental values of the company and
the market price. This analysis will help in providing us with a buy or sell
recommendation to the investor. The following discount cash flow models have been
used to arrive at the value of the firm
Dividend Discount
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)
We have used the cash flows of the company from FY 2009-10 to FY 2013-14 for
the analysis purpose. The Gordon Growth assumption has been made in the used
discounted cash flow models ie it has been assumed that cash flows of the firm will
continue to grow indefinitely at the sustainable growth rate (g). Also, since the data
availed is till March 31, 2014, all valuations have been done with respect to this
date.
4 | Page
&
Mahindra
Limited
is
an
Indian
multinational
automobile
Dr Reddys Laboratories
Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd is a pharmaceutical company based in Hyderabad,
Telangana. Dr Reddys manufactures and markets a wide range of pharmaceutical
in India and overseas. The company has over 190 medications, 60 active
pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for drug manufacture, diagnostic kits, critical
care and biotechnology products. Its revenue for the FY 2013-14 was INR 9728
crores with a net profit of INR 1932 crores. Dr Reddys Laboratories shares are
listed in Bombay Stock Exchange and in National Stock Exchange.
5 | Page
In the DCF approach, all future expected cash flows associated with the
asset are discounted in order to find their present values.
To determine the value of the asset, the present values of all expected cash
flows are summed.
When future cash flows are infinite or extend past a certain period, a
terminal value can be found and discounted back to the present.
Comparing a value found using the DCF approach with the actual price of
an asset determines if an asset is undervalued, overvalued, or correctly
priced.
6 | Page
The NPV is the sum of the present values of all the expected incremental cash flows
if a project is undertaken. The discount rate used is the firm's cost of capital,
adjusted for the risk level of the project. For a normal project, with an initial cash
outflow followed by a series of expected after-tax cash inflows, the NPV is the
present value of the expected inflows minus the initial cost of the project. The
formula for calculating the same is:
Valuation Models
Valuation Models are used to calculate the fundamental value of a company for
purposes such as mergers and acquisitions, sale of securities, and taxable events.
Before the value of a business can be measured, the valuation assignment must
specify the reason for and circumstances surrounding the business valuation.
These are formally known as the business value standard and premise of value.
The standard of value is the hypothetical conditions under which the business will
be valued. The premise of value relates to the assumptions, such as assuming that
the business will continue forever in its current form (going concern), or that the
value of the business lies in the proceeds from the sale of all of its assets minus the
related debt (sum of the parts or assemblage of business assets).
Business valuation results can vary considerably depending upon the choice of
both the standard and premise of value. In an actual business sale, it would be
expected that the buyer and seller, each with an incentive to achieve an optimal
7 | Page
outcome, would determine the fair market value of a business asset that would
compete in the market for such an acquisition. The project covers three methods of
company valuation. They are:
where:
8 | Page
9 | Page
Ke
To calculate the sustainable growth rate of dividend, CAGR from 2010 to 2014 was
calculated as follows:
CAGR for 5 growth periods = (63/25) ^ (1/5)
= 20.3%
Ke was calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
According to CAPM
Ke
Rf + (Rm Rf)
Rf
Rm
Return on Market
Where,
10 | P a g e
Data for the above mentioned parameters was obtained from BSE website. The
comparable risk free rate of return taken for calculation of CAPM is the return on a
10 year government bond.
Calculation of Required Rate of Return on Equity Using CAPM
Beta ()
0.32
Risk Free Return (10 Year Govt Bond)
8.81%
Return on Market (BSE Sensex)
16%
Putting the above values in CAPM formula we get
Ke
11.11%
An inherent assumption of the dividend discount model is that Ke> g. However, the
above calculations show that in case of Infosys Ltd. the required rate of return on
equity is less than the sustainable growth rate. Therefore, the model is struck by its
inherent limitation and the fundamental value of the share cannot be calculated
using this model.
As compared to dividends, the free cash flows of Infosys have grown at a slower
rate. To calculate FCFE for Infosys Ltd., Cash Flow from Operations have been
used. Since we know that Cash Flow from Operations are calculated using the
following formula:
CFO
Where
Fixed Capital Investment
Net Borrowings
Long-term and short-term debt issues minus longterm and short-term debt repayments
2009-10 (Rs.
Crores)
-
2013-14 (Rs.
Crores)
-
0
11 | P a g e
Repaid)
Following the calculation of net borrowings, FCFE was calculated as follows:
2009-10 (Rs.
Crores)
5876
581
5295
Parameter
Cash Flow From Operations
Less: Fixed Capital Investment
Add: Net Borrowings
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
2013-14 (Rs.
Crores)
9148
2490
6658
Following calculation of FCFE for 2009-10 and 2013-14, CAGR for this period was
calculated as follows:
CAGR for 5 growth periods (g)
= (6658/5295) ^ (1/5)
= 4.687%
FCFE (1 + g)/(Ke g)
To calculate the market price of the share, we have to divide the market value of
equity by the total number of shares in issue.
Intrinsic Value of a Share =
1,08,515.845/57.4236166
Rs. 1889.742
Comparing this value with the market price of the stock as on March 31, 2014,
which was Rs. 1639.43 we can conclude that the share is undervalued and hence
its price is expected to gain in the future.
12 | P a g e
The Free Cash Flow to Firm approach has been used to calculate the value of
Infosys Ltd. Likewise FCFE, the FCFF also grew at a very slow rate from the period
2010 to 2014. The following table summarises the calculation of FCFF using CFO:
31-03-2010
Crores)
5876
581
5295
Parameter
CFO
Less: Fixed Capital Investment
Free Cash Flow to Firm
(Rs. 31-03-2014
Crores)
9148
2490
6658
(Rs.
Following calculation of FCFF for 2009-10 and 2013-14, CAGR for this period was
calculated as follows:
CAGR for 5 growth periods (g)
= (6658/5295) ^ (1/5)
= 4.687%
Since FCFF gives the value of the firm, it is discounted using the Weighted Average
Cost of Capital. WACC for the company has been calculated using the debt-equity
ratio as given in the annual report 2014. The cost of debt has been calculated by
taking the percentage of the total interest paid during the year with the total debt
outstanding at the beginning of the year. The cost of equity has previously been
calculated using the CAPM. Following calculation of Cost of Debt (K d) and Cost of
Equity (Ke), WACC has been calculated using the following formula:
WACC
11.11%
Where
D
Debt
Capital Employed
Equity
0
0
0
0%
11.11%
Since the Gordon Growth assumption holds in this case also, we can calculate the
value of the firm using the following formula:
Market Value of Firm
FCFF (1 + g)/(WACC g)
13 | P a g e
Ke
To calculate the sustainable growth rate of dividend, CAGR from 2010 to 2014 was
calculated as follows:
CAGR for 5 growth periods
= (13/5) ^ (1/5)
= 21.06%
Rf + (Rm Rf)
Where,
Rf
Rm
Return on Market
14.9215%
An inherent assumption of the dividend discount model is that Ke> g. However, the
above calculations show that in case of Infosys Ltd. the required rate of return on
equity is less than the sustainable growth rate. Therefore, the model is struck by its
inherent limitation and the fundamental value of the share cannot be calculated
using this model.
Where
Fixed Capital Investment
Net Borrowings
Long-term and short-term debt issues minus longterm and short-term debt repayments
2009-10 (Rs.
Crores)
436.32
543.98
2013-14 (Rs.
Crores)
620.4
473.99
15 | P a g e
-107.66
146.41
2336.49
967.06
-107.66
1261.77
Parameter
Cash Flow From Operations
Less: Fixed Capital Investment
Add: Net Borrowings
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
2013-14 (Rs.
Crores)
3727.64
1704.3
146.41
2169.75
Following calculation of FCFE for 2009-10 and 2013-14, CAGR for this period was
calculated as follows:
CAGR for 5 growth periods (g)
= (2169.75/1261.77) ^ (1/5)
= 11.451%
FCFE (1 + g)/(Ke g)
To calculate the market price of the share, we have to divide the market value of
equity by the total number of shares in issue.
Intrinsic Value of a Share =
69689.2105/61.5892384
Rs. 1131.51
Comparing this value with the market price of the stock as on March 31, 2014,
which was Rs. 980.00 we can conclude that the share is undervalued and hence
its price is expected to gain in the future.
16 | P a g e
The Free Cash Flow to Firm approach has been used to calculate the value of M&M
Ltd. Likewise FCFE, the FCFF also grew at a very slow rate from the period 2010 to
2014. The following table summarises the calculation of FCFF using CFO:
31-03-2010 (Rs.
Crores)
2336.49
967.06
1369.43
Parameter
CFO
Less: Fixed Capital Investment
Free Cash Flow to Firm
31-03-2014 (Rs.
Crores)
3727.64
1704.30
2023.34
Following calculation of FCFF for 2009-10 and 2013-14, CAGR for this period was
calculated as follows:
CAGR for 5 growth periods (g)
= (2023.34/1369.43) ^ (1/5)
= 8.12%
Since FCFF gives the value of the firm, it is discounted using the Weighted Average
Cost of Capital. WACC for the company has been calculated using the debt-equity
ratio as given in the annual report 2014. The cost of debt has been calculated by
taking the percentage of the total interest paid during the year with the total debt
outstanding at the beginning of the year. The cost of equity has previously been
calculated using the CAPM. Following calculation of Cost of Debt (K d) and Cost of
Equity (Ke), WACC has been calculated using the following formula:
WACC
9.6438%
Where
D
Debt
Capital Employed
Equity
1.1
3744.42
259.22
6.922835%
9.6438%
Since the Gordon Growth assumption holds in this case also, we can calculate the
value of the firm using the following formula:
17 | P a g e
FCFF (1 + g)/(WACC g)
Ke
To calculate the sustainable growth rate of dividend, CAGR from 2010 to 2014 was
calculated as follows:
CAGR for 5 growth periods
= (15/6.25) ^ (1/5)
= 19.136%
Rf + (Rm Rf)
Where,
Rf
Rm
Return on Market
11.3265%
An inherent assumption of the dividend discount model is that Ke> g. However, the
above calculations show that in case of Infosys Ltd. the required rate of return on
equity is less than the sustainable growth rate. Therefore, the model is struck by its
inherent limitation and the fundamental value of the share cannot be calculated
using this model.
19 | P a g e
Where
Fixed Capital Investment
Net Borrowings
Long-term and short-term debt issues minus longterm and short-term debt repayments
2009-10 (Rs.
Crores)
0
730.5
2013-14 (Rs.
Crores)
1010
0
746.9
2.2
91.7
20.7
507.8
-18.6
389.8
2009-10 (Rs.
Crores)
1253.2
383
-18.6
851.6
2013-14 (Rs.
Crores)
1969.7
1083.1
389.8
1276.4
Following calculation of FCFE for 2009-10 and 2013-14, CAGR for this period was
calculated as follows:
CAGR for 5 growth periods (g)
= (1276.4/851.6) ^ (1/5)
= 8.43%
20 | P a g e
FCFE (1 + g)/(Ke g)
To calculate the market price of the share, we have to divide the market value of
equity by the total number of shares in issue.
Intrinsic Value of a Share =
47785.0832/17.0108868
Rs. 2809.0833
Comparing this value with the market price of the stock as on March 31, 2014,
which was Rs. 2556.20 we can conclude that the share is undervalued and hence
its price is expected to gain in the future.
31-03-2010 (Rs.
Crores)
1253.00
383
870.2
31-03-2014 (Rs.
Crores)
1969.7
1083.1
886.6
Following calculation of FCFF for 2009-10 and 2013-14, CAGR for this period was
calculated as follows:
CAGR for 5 growth periods (g)
= (886.6/870.2) ^ (1/5)
= 0.375%
21 | P a g e
Since FCFF gives the value of the firm, it is discounted using the Weighted Average
Cost of Capital. WACC for the company has been calculated using the debt-equity
ratio as given in the annual report 2014. The cost of debt has been calculated by
taking the percentage of the total interest paid during the year with the total debt
outstanding at the beginning of the year. The cost of equity has previously been
calculated using the CAPM. Following calculation of Cost of Debt (K d) and Cost of
Equity (Ke), WACC has been calculated using the following formula:
WACC
10.1471989%
Where
D
Debt
Capital Employed
Equity
0.29
901.5
78.31
8.686633%
10.1471989%
Since the Gordon Growth assumption holds in this case also, we can calculate the
value of the firm using the following formula:
Market Value of Firm
= FCFF (1 + g)/(WACC g)
=886.6 (1 + 0.00374115)/(0.101471989 0.00374115)
=Rs. 9105.79428 Crores
22 | P a g e
The company has also substantially increased its dividend payments. This shows
that the company does not have any growth opportunities in the future and would
like to be a cash cow in the foreseeable future.
EXHIBIT A: INFOSYS CHART Past 1 Year
23 | P a g e
The share price of Infosys Ltd has gained from its level on 31 st March 2014, and
reached the intrinsic value of the company in October. Initially it obtained
resistance at the level on upside. After the level was broken, the share price rose to
a new high but the intrinsic value became a good support for the share on
downside and has held on since. The limitation of this method is the macro factors
surrounding the organization. The call of going long has to be monitored carefully
with a stop loss cause change in macro factors would affect the movement of share
price. EXHIBIT B: MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA CHART Past 1 Year
The share price of M&M Ltd has gained from its level on 31 st March 2014, and
reached the intrinsic value of the company in June. The share price rose to a new
high but the intrinsic value became a good support for the share on downside. The
limitation of this method is the macro factors surrounding the organization. The
call of going long has to be monitored carefully with a stop loss cause change in
macro factors would affect the movement of share price.
24 | P a g e
25 | P a g e
Bibliography
Annual Report Infosys Ltd 2013-14 and 2009-10
Annual Report Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 2013-14 and 2009-10
Annual Report Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd 2013-14 and 2009-10
http://www.nseindia.com/archives/indices/update/indup.pdf
26 | P a g e
http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/india-10-year-bond-yield-historical-data
http://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php?country=IND
http://www.irjcjournals.org/ijmssr/May2013/9.pdf
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stock-charts/infosys/charts/IT
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stock-charts/drreddyslaboratories/charts/DRL
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/autocarsjeeps/mahindrama
hindra/MM
27 | P a g e