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Many of the projects that companies are appraising may have an international dimension. For example,
the assumption can be made that part of the production from a project may be exported. In appraising
a tourist development, a company may be making assumptions about the number of tourists from
abroad who may be visiting. Imported goods and materials could be a factor in the determination of
cash flows. All these examples show that exchange rates will have an influence on the cash flows of the
company.
Companies that undertake overseas projects are exposed, in addition to exchange rate risks, to other
types of risk such as exchange control, taxation or political risks. The latter is particularly true in
countries with undemocratic regimes that may be subject to changes in a rather disorderly fashion.
Capital budgeting techniques for multinational companies therefore need to incorporate these
additional complexities in the decision making process. These can be based on similar concepts to
those used in the purely domestic case which we have examined. Special considerations, examples of
which were given above, may apply.
Changes in exchange rates are as important as the underlying profitability in selecting an overseas
project.
In a domestic project the NPV is the sum of the discounted cash flows plus the terminal value
(discounted at the WACC) less the initial investment.
When a project in a foreign country is assessed we must take into account some specific considerations
such as local taxes, double taxation agreements, and political risk that affect the present value
of the project. The main consideration of course in an international project is the exchange rate risk,
that is the risk that arises from the fact that the cash flows are denominated in a foreign currency. An
appraisal of an international project requires estimates of the exchange rate. In the rest of this section
we discuss some fundamental relationships that help the financial manager form views about exchange
rates.
Case Study
An amusing example of purchasing power parity is the Economist's Big Mac index. Under PPP
movements in countries' exchange rates should in the long-term mean that the prices of an identical
basket of goods or services are equalised. The McDonalds Big Mac represents this basket.
The index compares local Big Mac prices with the price of Big Macs in America. This comparison is used
to forecast what exchange rates should be, and this is then compared with the actual exchange rates
to decide which currencies are over and under-valued.
Example
A US company is expecting to receive Zambian kwacha in one years time. The spot rate is US$1 =
ZMK4,819. The company could borrow in kwacha at 7% or in dollars at 9%. There is no forward rate for
one years time.
Estimate the forward rate in one years time.
Solution
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The base currency is dollars therefore the dollar interest rate will be on the bottom of the fraction.
However this prediction is subject to considerable inaccuracy as future events can result in large
unexpected currency rate swings that were not predicted by interest rate parity. In general interest rate
parity is regarded as less accurate than purchasing power parity for predicting future exchange rates.
2.2.1 Use of interest rate parity to compute the effective cost of foreign currency
loans
Loans in some currencies are cheaper than in others. However when the likely strengthening of the
exchange rate is taken into consideration, the cost of apparently cheap international loans becomes
much more expensive.
Example
Cato, a Polish company, needs a one year loan of about 50 million zlotys. It can borrow in zlotys at
10.80% pa but is considering taking out a sterling loan which would cost only 6.56% pa. The current
spot exchange rate is zloty/ 5.1503. The company decides to borrow 10 million at 6.56% per annum.
Converting at the spot rate, this will provide zloty51.503 million. Interest will be paid at the end of one
year along with the repayment of the loan principal.
Assuming the exchange rate moves in line with interest rate parity, you are required to show the zloty
values of the interest paid and the repayment of the loan principal. Compute the effective interest rate
paid on the loan.
Solution
By interest rate parity, the zloty will have weakened in one year to:
This rate would have to be incorporated into the discount rate for any investment projects financed by
this loan. As the discount rate would now be higher than originally anticipated, the NPV of the project
will be lower (which may result in the project being unviable).
Example
The nominal interest rate in the US is 5% and inflation is currently 3%. If inflation in the UK is currently
4.5% what is its nominal interest rate? Would the dollar be expected to appreciate or depreciate
against sterling?
Solution
The dollar is the base currency.
The dollar would be expected to depreciate against sterling as it has a lower interest rate. According to
the International Fisher effect, the currency of a country with a lower interest rate will depreciate
against the currency of a country with a higher interest rate.
Question
Suppose that the nominal interest rate in the UK is 6 percent and the nominal interest rate in the US is
7 percent. What is the expected change in the dollar/sterling exchange rate?
Answer
Since
It means that
Question
Bromwich Inc, a US company, is considering undertaking a new project in the UK. This will require initial
capital expenditure of 1,250 million, with no scrap value envisaged at the end of the five year lifespan
of the project. There will also be an initial working capital requirement of 500 million, which will be
recovered at the end of the project. The initial capital will therefore be 1,750 million. Pre-tax net cash
inflows of 800 million are expected to be generated each year from the project.
Company tax will be charged in the UK at a rate of 40%, with depreciation on a straight-line basis being
an allowable deduction for tax purposes. Portuguese tax is paid at the end of the year following that in
which the taxable profits arise.
There is a double taxation agreement between the US and the UK, which means that no US tax will be
payable on the project profits.
The current $/ spot rate is $1 = 0.625. Inflation rates are 3% in the US and 4.5% in the UK.A project
of similar risk recently undertaken by Bromwich Inc in the US had a required post-tax rate of return of
10%.
Required
Calculate the present value of the project using each of the two alternative approaches.
Answer
Method 1 convert sterling cash flows into $ and discount at $ cost of capital
Firstly we have to estimate the exchange rate for each of years 1 6. This can be done using
purchasing power parity.
Year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.625
0.634
0.643
0.652
0.661
0.671
x
x
x
x
x
x
(1.045/1.03)
(1.045/1.03)
(1.045/1.03)
(1.045/1.03)
(1.045/1.03)
(1.045/1.03)
Note that the two answers are almost identical (with differences being due to rounding). In the first
approach the dollar is appreciating due to the relatively low inflation rate in the US (not good news
when converting sterling to $). In the second approach the UK discount rate is higher due to the
relatively high inflation rate in the UK (again this is bad news as the NPV of the project will be lower).
Now that we have created a framework for the analysis of the effects of exchange rate changes on the
net present value from an overseas project we can use the NPV equation to calculate the impact of
exchange rate changes on the sterling denominated NPV of a project.
NPV = the sum of the discounted domestic cash flows
Add: discounted domestic terminal value
Less: initial domestic investment (converted at spot rate)
When there is a devaluation of the domestic currency relative to a foreign currency, then the domestic
currency value of the net cash flows increases and thus the NPV increases. The opposite happens when
the domestic currency appreciates. In this case the domestic currency value of the cash flows decline
and the NPV of the project in sterling declines. The relationship between NPV in sterling and the
exchange rate is shown in the diagram below
Question
Calculate the NPV for the UK project of Bromwich Inc under three different scenarios.
(a) The exchange rate remains constant at $1 = 0.625 for the duration of the project
(b) The dollar appreciates by 1.5% per year (as per the original question)
(c) The dollar depreciates by 1.5% per year
Answer
If the dollar depreciates by 1.5% each year the exchange rates are as follows:
Year
Exchange rate ($/)
0
0.625
1
0.625/1.015
0.616
2
0.616/1.015
0.607
3
0.607/1.015
0.598
4
0.598/1.015
0.589
5
0.589/1.015
0.580
6
0.580/1.015
0.571
The NPV under the three scenarios is given in the table below. Cash flows are discounted at 10%.
The calculation of cash flows for the appraisal of overseas projects requires a number of other factors
to be taken into account.
3.3 Taxes
Taxes play an important role in the investment appraisal as it can affect the viability of a project. The
main aspects of taxation in an international context are:
Corporate taxes in the host country.
Investment allowances in the host country
Withholding taxes in the host country
Double taxation relief in the home country
Foreign tax credits in the home country
The importance of taxation in corporate decision making is demonstrated by the use of tax havens by
some multinationals as a means of deferring tax on funds prior to their repatriation or reinvestment. A
tax haven is likely to have the following characteristics.
(a) Tax on foreign investment or sales income earned by resident companies, and withholding tax on
dividends paid to the parent, should be low.
(b) There should be a stable government and a stable currency.
(c) There should be adequate financial services support facilities.
For example suppose that the tax rate on profits in the Federal West Asian Republic is 20% and the UK
corporation tax is 30%, and there is a double taxation agreement between the two countries. A
subsidiary of a UK firm operating in the Federal West Asian Republic earns the equivalent of 1 million
in profit, and therefore pays 200,000 in tax on profits. When the profits are remitted to the UK, the UK
parent can claim a credit of 200,000 against the full UK tax charge of 300,000, and hence will only
pay 100,000.
Question
International investment I
Flagwaver Inc is considering whether to establish a subsidiary in Slovenia at a cost of 20,000,000. The
subsidiary will run for four years and the net cash flows from the project are shown below.
Net Cash Flow
Project 1
3,600,000
Project 2
4,560,000
Project 3
8,400,000
Project 4
8,480,000
There is a withholding tax of 10 percent on remitted profits and the exchange rate is expected to
remain constant at $1 = 1.50. At the end of the four year period the Slovenian government will buy
the plant for 12,000,000. The latter amount can be repatriated free of withholding taxes.
If the required rate of return is 15 percent what is the present value of the project?
Answer
3,240,000
4,104,000
7,560,000
19,632,000
Remittance
Discounted
$
2,160,000
2,736,000
5,040,000
13,088,000
$
1,879,200
2,068,416
3,316,320
7,486,336
14,750,272
Question
International investment 2
Goody plc is considering whether to establish a subsidiary in the USA, at a cost of $2,400,000. This
would be represented by non-current assets of $2,000,000 and working capital of $400,000. The
subsidiary would produce a product which would achieve annual sales of $1,600,000 and incur cash
expenditures of $1,000,000 a year.
The company has a planning horizon of four years, at the end of which it expects the realisable value of
the subsidiary's fixed assets to be $800,000.
It is the company's policy to remit the maximum funds possible to the parent company at the end of
each year. Tax is payable at the rate of 35% in the USA and is payable one year in arrears. A double
taxation treaty exists between the UK and the USA and so no UK taxation is expected to arise.
Tax allowable depreciation is at a rate of 25% on a straight line basis on all non-current assets. The tax
allowable depreciation can first be claimed one year after the investment ie at t 1.
Because of the fluctuations in the exchange rate between the US dollar and sterling, the company
would protect itself against the risk by raising a eurodollar loan to finance the investment. The
company's cost of capital for the project is 16%.
Calculate the NPV of the project.
The annual writing down allowance (WDA) is 25% of US$2,000,000 = $500,000, from which the annual
tax saving would be (at 35%) $175,000.
3.4 Subsidies
Many countries offer concessionary loans to multinational companies in order to entice them to invest
in the country. The benefit from such concessionary loans should be included in the NPV calculation.
The benefit of a concessionary loan is the difference between the repayment when borrowing under
market conditions and the repayment under the concessionary loan. For a UK company this benefit is
calculated as
The APV method of investment appraisal was introduced earlier in the context of domestic
investments. Just to recap, there are three steps.
Step 1
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Step 2
Step 3
Estimate the effects of the actual structure of finance (for example, tax effects of borrowing)
Add the values from steps 1 and 2 to obtain the APV.
Step 1
As the initial NPV assumes that the project is financed entirely by equity, the appropriate cost
of capital is the cost of equity (allowing for project risk but excluding financial risk).
Step 2
Step 3
Add the values from the first two steps to obtain the APV
The steps for calculating the APV of an international project are essentially the same as for domestic
projects, although more care has to taken with the extra adjustments
Step 1 Convert net cash flows to home currency and discount at WACC
Step 2 Convert terminal value to home currency and discount at WACC
Step 3 Add the values from Steps 1 and 2 and deduct the initial investment
(converted to home
currency)
Assuming that no repatriation is possible until period N, when the life of the project will have been
completed then the NPV will be calculated as follows.
Step
Step
Step
Step
Step
1
2
3
4
5
Add all net cash flows together and then add the terminal value
Convert the value from Step 1 to home currency
Discount the value from Step 2 at WACC
Convert initial investment to home currency
Deduct the value from Step 4 from the value in Step 3 to obtain NPV
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The above formula assumes that non repatriated funds are not invested. If in fact we assume that the
cash flow is invested each period and earns a return equal to i, then the NPV will be calculated as
follows.
Step 1
Step 2
Convert net cash flows to home currency, gross up for interest and add together, before
discounting the total using WACC
Step 3
Convert initial investment to home currency and deduct from the sum of the values in Steps
1 and 2
The impact will depend on the interest rate earned and the cost of capital. An example will illustrate
how this may be calculated.
Question
Exchange controls
Consider again the case of Flagwaver Inc, and its proposed subsidiary in Slovenia in question
International Investment 1.
Now assume that no funds can be repatriated for the first three years, but all the funds are allowed to
be remitted to the home market in year 4. The funds can be invested at a rate of 5 percent per year. Is
the project still financially viable?
Answer
The first payment represents the initial profit of 3,600,000 + 3 years investment interest of 5% that is:
3,600,000 x 1.053 = 4,167,150
(1)
The second payment includes 2 years investment interest and the 3 rd payment one years investment
interest.
Total net cash flow receivable in Year 4 is $15,896,910. When the salvage value of $8,000,000
(20,000,000/1,50) is included, total cash receivable is $23,896,910. Discounted at 15% (discount
factor at year 4 = 0.572), the present value is $13,669,033.
Net present value = $13,669,033 (20,000,000/1.5) = $335,700
Note that the exchange controls have reduced the NPV of the project by 76% (original NPV =
$1,416,939) but the project is still financially viable.
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Royalty payments when a parent company grants a subsidiary the right to make goods protected
by patents. The size of any royalty can be adjusted to suit the wishes of the parent company's
management.
Loans by the parent company to the subsidiary. If the parent company makes a loan to a subsidiary,
it can set the interest rate high or low, thereby affecting the profits of both companies. A high rate of
interest on a loan, for example, would improve the parent company's profits to the detriment of the
subsidiary's profits.
Management charges may be levied by the parent company for costs incurred in the management
of international operations.
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per . The sterling value of the subsidiary's position in these two accounts is 909,090 in both cases. If
sterling was to suddenly appreciate against the , say to 1.15/ the asset and the liability accounts
would lose sterling value in the same amount. Both would be revalued in sterling at 869,565.
However, there would be no loss to the UK parent, since the sterling loss on the bank deposit is exactly
offset by the sterling gain on the payable. In essence, these two accounts hedged each other from
translation exposure to exchange rate changes.
Case Study
In 2011, Coca Cola used 73 functional currencies in addition to the US dollar. As Coca Colas
consolidated financial statements are presented in US dollars, revenues, income and expenses,
together with assets and liabilities, must be translated into US dollars at the prevailing exchange rates
at the end of the financial year. Increases or decreases in the value of the US dollar against other major
currencies will affect reported figures in the financial statements.
Although Coca Cola hedges against currency fluctuations it states in its annual 10K return that it cannot
guarantee that currency fluctuations will not have a material effect on its reported figures. In 2011
Coca Cola made a foreign exchange loss of $73 million.
In 2010, Coca Cola made a loss of $103 million as a result of the Venezuelan government devaluing the
bolivar as a response to hyperinflation. This loss was based on the carrying value of Coca Colas assets
and liabilities that were denominated in Venezuelan bolivar.
Example
Trends in exchange rates
Suppose a US company sets up a subsidiary in an Eastern European country. The Eastern European
countrys currency depreciates continuously over a five year period. The cash flows remitted back to
the US are worth less in dollar terms each year, causing a reduction in the investment project.
Another US company buys raw materials which are priced in euros. It converts these materials into
finished products which it exports mainly to Singapore. Over a period of several years the US dollar
depreciates against the euro but strengthens against the Singapore dollar. The US dollar value of the
companys income declines whilst the US dollar value of its materials increases, resulting in a drop in
the value of the companys net cash flows.
The value of a company depends on the present value of its expected future cash flows. If there
are fears that a company is exposed to the type of exchange rate movements described above, theis
may reduce the companys value. Protecting against economic exposure is therefore necessary to
protect the companys share price.
A company need not even engage in any foreign activities to be subject to economic exposure. For
example, if a company trades only in the UK but sterling strengthens significantly against other world
currencies, it may find that it loses UK sales to an overseas competitor who can now afford to charge
cheaper sterling prices.
One-off events
As well as trends in exchange rates, one-off events such as a major stock market crash or disaster such
as the attacks on 9/11 may administer a shock to exchange rate levels.
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(d) Should the subsidiary be encouraged to borrow as much long-term debt as it can, for example by
raising large bank loans? If so, should the loans be in the domestic currency of the subsidiary's country,
or should it try to raise a foreign currency loan?
(e) Should the subsidiary be listed on the local stock exchange, raising funds from the local equity
markets?
(f) Should the subsidiary be encouraged to minimise its working capital investment by relying heavily
on trade credit?
The method of financing a subsidiary will give some indication of the nature and length of time of
the investment that the parent company is prepared to make. A sizeable equity investment (or longterm loans from the parent company to the subsidiary) would indicate a long-term investment by the
parent company.
Borrowing markets are becoming increasingly internationalised, particularly for larger companies.
Companies are able to borrow long-term funds on the eurocurrency (money) markets and on the
markets for eurobonds. These markets are collectively called 'euromarkets'. Large companies can
also borrow on the syndicated loan market where a syndicate of banks provides medium to longterm currency loans.
If a company is receiving income in a foreign currency or has a long-term investment overseas, it can
try to limit the risk of adverse exchange rate movements by matching. It can take out a long-term
loan and use the foreign currency receipts to repay the loan.
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(b) Lower cost of borrowing. In Eurobond markets interest rates are normally lower than borrowing
rates in national markets
(c) Lower issue costs. The cost of debt issuance is normally lower than the cost of debt issue in
domestic markets.
Question
International investment 3
Donegal plc manufactures Irish souvenirs. These souvenirs are exported in vast quantities to the USA
to the extent that Donegal is considering setting up a manufacturing and commercial subsidiary there.
After undertaking research, it has been found that it would cost $6m, comprising $5m in non-current
assets and $1m in working capital. Annual sales of the souvenirs have been estimated as $4m and they
would cost $2.5m per annum to produce. Other costs are likely to be $300,000 per annum.
Tax rates are as follows.
Ireland
23%
USA
25%
Tax is payable in the year of occurrence in both countries. Assume there is no double tax relief. Capital
allowances at a rate of 20% reducing balance are available. Balancing allowances or balancing charges
should also be accounted for at the end of the projects life.
The maximum possible funds will be remitted to the home country (Ireland) at the end of each year.
The exchange rate is $1 = 0.71. It is assumed that this rate will remain constant over the projects
life.
The project is being appraised on a five year time span. The non-current assets will be sold for an
expected $2.5m at the end of the projects life.
Donegal uses a cost of capital of 12% on all capital investment projects.
Required
Calculate the NPV of the proposed project and recommend to the Board of Directors of Donegal
whether the US subsidiary should be set up.
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