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Bayesiannetwork
FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

ABayesiannetwork,Bayesnetwork,beliefnetwork,
Bayes(ian)modelorprobabilisticdirectedacyclicgraphical
modelisaprobabilisticgraphicalmodel(atypeofstatistical
model)thatrepresentsasetofrandomvariablesandtheir
conditionaldependenciesviaadirectedacyclicgraph(DAG).
Forexample,aBayesiannetworkcouldrepresentthe
probabilisticrelationshipsbetweendiseasesandsymptoms.
Givensymptoms,thenetworkcanbeusedtocomputethe
probabilitiesofthepresenceofvariousdiseases.

AsimpleBayesiannetwork.Rain
influenceswhetherthesprinkleris
activated,andbothrainandthe
sprinklerinfluencewhetherthegrass
iswet.

Formally,BayesiannetworksareDAGswhosenodesrepresent
randomvariablesintheBayesiansense:theymaybeobservable
quantities,latentvariables,unknownparametersorhypotheses.
Edgesrepresentconditionaldependenciesnodesthatarenot
connectedrepresentvariablesthatareconditionallyindependentofeachother.Eachnodeisassociated
withaprobabilityfunctionthattakes,asinput,aparticularsetofvaluesforthenode'sparentvariables,
andgives(asoutput)theprobability(orprobabilitydistribution,ifapplicable)ofthevariable
representedbythenode.Forexample,if parentnodesrepresent Booleanvariablesthenthe
probabilityfunctioncouldberepresentedbyatableof entries,oneentryforeachofthe possible
combinationsofitsparentsbeingtrueorfalse.Similarideasmaybeappliedtoundirected,andpossibly
cyclic,graphssucharecalledMarkovnetworks.
EfficientalgorithmsexistthatperforminferenceandlearninginBayesiannetworks.Bayesiannetworks
thatmodelsequencesofvariables(e.g.speechsignalsorproteinsequences)arecalleddynamicBayesian
networks.GeneralizationsofBayesiannetworksthatcanrepresentandsolvedecisionproblemsunder
uncertaintyarecalledinfluencediagrams.

Contents
1Example
2Inferenceandlearning
2.1Inferringunobservedvariables
2.2Parameterlearning
2.3Structurelearning
3Statisticalintroduction
3.1Introductoryexamples
3.2Restrictionsonpriors
4Definitionsandconcepts
4.1Factorizationdefinition
4.2LocalMarkovproperty
4.3DevelopingBayesiannetworks
4.4Markovblanket
4.4.1dseparation
4.5Hierarchicalmodels
4.6Causalnetworks
5Applications
5.1Software

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5.1Software
6History
7Seealso
8Notes
9References
10Furtherreading
11Externallinks

BayesiannetworkWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Example
Supposethattherearetwoevents
whichcouldcausegrasstobewet:
eitherthesprinklerisonorit's
raining.Also,supposethattherain
hasadirecteffectontheuseofthe
sprinkler(namelythatwhenitrains,
thesprinklerisusuallynotturned
on).Thenthesituationcanbe
modeledwithaBayesiannetwork
(shown).Allthreevariableshave
twopossiblevalues,T(fortrue)and
F(forfalse).
Thejointprobabilityfunctionis:

AsimpleBayesiannetworkwithconditionalprobabilitytables

wherethenamesofthevariableshavebeenabbreviatedtoG=Grasswet(yes/no),S=Sprinklerturned
on(yes/no),andR=Raining(yes/no).
Themodelcananswerquestionslike"Whatistheprobabilitythatitisraining,giventhegrassiswet?"
byusingtheconditionalprobabilityformulaandsummingoverallnuisancevariables:

Usingtheexpansionforthejointprobabilityfunction
andtheconditionalprobabilities
fromtheconditionalprobabilitytables(CPTs)statedinthediagram,onecanevaluateeachterminthe
sumsinthenumeratoranddenominator.Forexample,

Thenthenumericalresults(subscriptedbytheassociatedvariablevalues)are

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If,ontheotherhand,wewishtoansweraninterventionalquestion:"Whatisthelikelihoodthatitwould
rain,giventhatwewetthegrass?"theanswerwouldbegovernedbythepostinterventionjoint
distributionfunction
obtainedbyremovingthefactor
fromthepreinterventiondistribution.Asexpected,thelikelihoodofrainisunaffectedby
theaction:
.
If,moreover,wewishtopredicttheimpactofturningthesprinkleron,wehave

withtheterm
rain.

removed,showingthattheactionhasaneffectonthegrassbutnotonthe

Thesepredictionsmaynotbefeasiblewhensomeofthevariablesareunobserved,asinmostpolicy
evaluationproblems.Theeffectoftheaction
canstillbepredicted,however,whenevera
criterioncalled"backdoor"issatisfied.[1][2]Itstatesthat,ifasetZofnodescanbeobservedthatd
separates[3](orblocks)allbackdoorpathsfromXtoYthen
.Abackdoorpathisonethatendswithan
arrowintoX.Setsthatsatisfythebackdoorcriterionarecalled"sufficient"or"admissible."For
example,thesetZ=RisadmissibleforpredictingtheeffectofS=TonG,becauseRdseparatethe
(only)backdoorpathSRG.However,ifSisnotobserved,thereisnoothersetthatdseparates
thispathandtheeffectofturningthesprinkleron(S=T)onthegrass(G)cannotbepredictedfrom
passiveobservations.WethensaythatP(G|do(S=T))isnot"identified."Thisreflectsthefactthat,
lackinginterventionaldata,wecannotdetermineiftheobserveddependencebetweenSandGisduetoa
causalconnectionorisspurious(apparentdependencearisingfromacommoncause,R).(seeSimpson's
paradox)
TodeterminewhetheracausalrelationisidentifiedfromanarbitraryBayesiannetworkwithunobserved
variables,onecanusethethreerulesof"docalculus"[1][4]andtestwhetheralldotermscanberemoved
fromtheexpressionofthatrelation,thusconfirmingthatthedesiredquantityisestimablefrom
frequencydata.[5]
UsingaBayesiannetworkcansaveconsiderableamountsofmemory,ifthedependenciesinthejoint
distributionaresparse.Forexample,anaivewayofstoringtheconditionalprobabilitiesof10two
valuedvariablesasatablerequiresstoragespacefor
values.Ifthelocaldistributionsof
novariabledependsonmorethan3parentvariables,theBayesiannetworkrepresentationonlyneedsto
storeatmost
values.
OneadvantageofBayesiannetworksisthatitisintuitivelyeasierforahumantounderstand(asparse
setof)directdependenciesandlocaldistributionsthancompletejointdistributions.

Inferenceandlearning
TherearethreemaininferencetasksforBayesiannetworks.
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Inferringunobservedvariables
BecauseaBayesiannetworkisacompletemodelforthevariablesandtheirrelationships,itcanbeused
toanswerprobabilisticqueriesaboutthem.Forexample,thenetworkcanbeusedtofindoutupdated
knowledgeofthestateofasubsetofvariableswhenothervariables(theevidencevariables)are
observed.Thisprocessofcomputingtheposteriordistributionofvariablesgivenevidenceiscalled
probabilisticinference.Theposteriorgivesauniversalsufficientstatisticfordetectionapplications,
whenonewantstochoosevaluesforthevariablesubsetwhichminimizesomeexpectedlossfunction,
forinstancetheprobabilityofdecisionerror.ABayesiannetworkcanthusbeconsideredamechanism
forautomaticallyapplyingBayes'theoremtocomplexproblems.
Themostcommonexactinferencemethodsare:variableelimination,whicheliminates(byintegrationor
summation)thenonobservednonqueryvariablesonebyonebydistributingthesumovertheproduct
cliquetreepropagation,whichcachesthecomputationsothatmanyvariablescanbequeriedatonetime
andnewevidencecanbepropagatedquicklyandrecursiveconditioningandAND/ORsearch,which
allowforaspacetimetradeoffandmatchtheefficiencyofvariableeliminationwhenenoughspaceis
used.Allofthesemethodshavecomplexitythatisexponentialinthenetwork'streewidth.Themost
commonapproximateinferencealgorithmsareimportancesampling,stochasticMCMCsimulation,
minibucketelimination,loopybeliefpropagation,generalizedbeliefpropagation,andvariational
methods.

Parameterlearning
InordertofullyspecifytheBayesiannetworkandthusfullyrepresentthejointprobabilitydistribution,
itisnecessarytospecifyforeachnodeXtheprobabilitydistributionforXconditionaluponX'sparents.
ThedistributionofXconditionaluponitsparentsmayhaveanyform.Itiscommontoworkwith
discreteorGaussiandistributionssincethatsimplifiescalculations.Sometimesonlyconstraintsona
distributionareknownonecanthenusetheprincipleofmaximumentropytodetermineasingle
distribution,theonewiththegreatestentropygiventheconstraints.(Analogously,inthespecificcontext
ofadynamicBayesiannetwork,onecommonlyspecifiestheconditionaldistributionforthehidden
state'stemporalevolutiontomaximizetheentropyrateoftheimpliedstochasticprocess.)
Oftentheseconditionaldistributionsincludeparameterswhichareunknownandmustbeestimatedfrom
data,sometimesusingthemaximumlikelihoodapproach.Directmaximizationofthelikelihood(orof
theposteriorprobability)isoftencomplexwhenthereareunobservedvariables.Aclassicalapproachto
thisproblemistheexpectationmaximizationalgorithmwhichalternatescomputingexpectedvaluesof
theunobservedvariablesconditionalonobserveddata,withmaximizingthecompletelikelihood(or
posterior)assumingthatpreviouslycomputedexpectedvaluesarecorrect.Undermildregularity
conditionsthisprocessconvergesonmaximumlikelihood(ormaximumposterior)valuesfor
parameters.
AmorefullyBayesianapproachtoparametersistotreatparametersasadditionalunobservedvariables
andtocomputeafullposteriordistributionoverallnodesconditionaluponobserveddata,thento
integrateouttheparameters.Thisapproachcanbeexpensiveandleadtolargedimensionmodels,soin
practiceclassicalparametersettingapproachesaremorecommon.

Structurelearning
Inthesimplestcase,aBayesiannetworkisspecifiedbyanexpertandisthenusedtoperforminference.
Inotherapplicationsthetaskofdefiningthenetworkistoocomplexforhumans.Inthiscasethe
networkstructureandtheparametersofthelocaldistributionsmustbelearnedfromdata.
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AutomaticallylearningthegraphstructureofaBayesiannetworkisachallengepursuedwithinmachine
learning.ThebasicideagoesbacktoarecoveryalgorithmdevelopedbyRebaneandPearl(1987)[6]and
restsonthedistinctionbetweenthethreepossibletypesofadjacenttripletsallowedinadirectedacyclic
graph(DAG):
1.
2.
3.
Type1andtype2representthesamedependencies( and areindependentgiven )andare,
therefore,indistinguishable.Type3,however,canbeuniquelyidentified,since and aremarginally
independentandallotherpairsaredependent.Thus,whiletheskeletons(thegraphsstrippedofarrows)
ofthesethreetripletsareidentical,thedirectionalityofthearrowsispartiallyidentifiable.Thesame
distinctionapplieswhen and havecommonparents,exceptthatonemustfirstconditiononthose
parents.Algorithmshavebeendevelopedtosystematicallydeterminetheskeletonoftheunderlying
graphand,then,orientallarrowswhosedirectionalityisdictatedbytheconditionalindependencies
observed.[1][7][8][9]
Analternativemethodofstructurallearningusesoptimizationbasedsearch.Itrequiresascoring
functionandasearchstrategy.Acommonscoringfunctionisposteriorprobabilityofthestructuregiven
thetrainingdata.Thetimerequirementofanexhaustivesearchreturningastructurethatmaximizesthe
scoreissuperexponentialinthenumberofvariables.Alocalsearchstrategymakesincrementalchanges
aimedatimprovingthescoreofthestructure.AglobalsearchalgorithmlikeMarkovchainMonteCarlo
canavoidgettingtrappedinlocalminima.Friedmanetal.[10][11]discussusingmutualinformation
betweenvariablesandfindingastructurethatmaximizesthis.Theydothisbyrestrictingtheparent
candidatesettoknodesandexhaustivelysearchingtherein.
Anothermethodconsistsoffocusingonthesubclassofdecomposablemodels,forwhichtheMLEhave
aclosedform.Itisthenpossibletodiscoveraconsistentstructureforhundredsofvariables.[12]
ABayesiannetworkcanbeaugmentedwithnodesandedgesusingrulebasedmachinelearning
techniques.Inductivelogicprogrammingcanbeusedtominerulesandcreatenewnodes.[13]Statistical
relationallearning(SRL)approachesuseascoringfunctionbasedontheBayesnetworkstructureto
guidethestructuralsearchandaugmentthenetwork.[14]AcommonSRLscoringfunctionisthearea
undertheROCcurve.

Statisticalintroduction
Givendata andparameter ,asimpleBayesiananalysisstartswithapriorprobability(prior)
andlikelihood
tocomputeaposteriorprobability
.
Oftentheprioron dependsinturnonotherparameters thatarenotmentionedinthelikelihood.So,
theprior
mustbereplacedbyalikelihood
,andaprior
onthenewlyintroduced
parameters isrequired,resultinginaposteriorprobability

ThisisthesimplestexampleofahierarchicalBayesmodel.

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Theprocessmayberepeatedforexample,theparameters maydependinturnonadditional
parameters ,whichwillrequiretheirownprior.Eventuallytheprocessmustterminate,withpriorsthat
donotdependonanyotherunmentionedparameters.

Introductoryexamples
Supposewehavemeasuredthequantities
standarddeviation ,

eachwithnormallydistributederrorsofknown

Supposeweareinterestedinestimatingthe .Anapproachwouldbetoestimatethe usinga


maximumlikelihoodapproachsincetheobservationsareindependent,thelikelihoodfactorizesandthe
maximumlikelihoodestimateissimply

However,ifthequantitiesarerelated,sothatforexamplewemaythinkthattheindividual have
themselvesbeendrawnfromanunderlyingdistribution,thenthisrelationshipdestroystheindependence
andsuggestsamorecomplexmodel,e.g.,

withimproperpriors
flat,
flat
.When
,thisisanidentifiedmodel(i.e.there
existsauniquesolutionforthemodel'sparameters),andtheposteriordistributionsoftheindividual
willtendtomove,orshrinkawayfromthemaximumlikelihoodestimatestowardstheircommonmean.
ThisshrinkageisatypicalbehaviorinhierarchicalBayesmodels.

Restrictionsonpriors
Somecareisneededwhenchoosingpriorsinahierarchicalmodel,particularlyonscalevariablesat
higherlevelsofthehierarchysuchasthevariable intheexample.TheusualpriorssuchastheJeffreys
prioroftendonotwork,becausetheposteriordistributionwillbeimproper(notnormalizable),and
estimatesmadebyminimizingtheexpectedlosswillbeinadmissible.

Definitionsandconcepts
ThereareseveralequivalentdefinitionsofaBayesiannetwork.Forallthefollowing,letG=(V,E)bea
directedacyclicgraph(orDAG),andletX=(Xv)vVbeasetofrandomvariablesindexedbyV.

Factorizationdefinition
XisaBayesiannetworkwithrespecttoGifitsjointprobabilitydensityfunction(withrespecttoa
productmeasure)canbewrittenasaproductoftheindividualdensityfunctions,conditionalontheir
parentvariables:[15]

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wherepa(v)isthesetofparentsofv(i.e.thoseverticespointingdirectlytovviaasingleedge).
Foranysetofrandomvariables,theprobabilityofanymemberofajointdistributioncanbecalculated
fromconditionalprobabilitiesusingthechainrule(givenatopologicalorderingofX)asfollows:[15]

Comparethiswiththedefinitionabove,whichcanbewrittenas:
foreach

whichisaparentof

Thedifferencebetweenthetwoexpressionsistheconditionalindependenceofthevariablesfromanyof
theirnondescendants,giventhevaluesoftheirparentvariables.

LocalMarkovproperty
XisaBayesiannetworkwithrespecttoGifitsatisfiesthelocalMarkovproperty:eachvariableis
conditionallyindependentofitsnondescendantsgivenitsparentvariables:[16]

wherede(v)isthesetofdescendantsandV\de(v)isthesetofnondescendantsofv.
Thiscanalsobeexpressedintermssimilartothefirstdefinition,as
foreach

whichisnotadescendantof
foreach whichisaparentof

Notethatthesetofparentsisasubsetofthesetofnondescendantsbecausethegraphisacyclic.

DevelopingBayesiannetworks
TodevelopaBayesiannetwork,weoftenfirstdevelopaDAGGsuchthatwebelieveXsatisfiesthe
localMarkovpropertywithrespecttoG.SometimesthisisdonebycreatingacausalDAG.Wethen
ascertaintheconditionalprobabilitydistributionsofeachvariablegivenitsparentsinG.Inmanycases,
inparticularinthecasewherethevariablesarediscrete,ifwedefinethejointdistributionofXtobethe
productoftheseconditionaldistributions,thenXisaBayesiannetworkwithrespecttoG.[17]

Markovblanket
TheMarkovblanketofanodeisthesetofnodesconsistingofitsparents,itschildren,andanyother
parentsofitschildren.Thissetrendersitindependentoftherestofthenetworkthejointdistributionof
thevariablesintheMarkovblanketofanodeissufficientknowledgeforcalculatingthedistributionof
thenode.XisaBayesiannetworkwithrespecttoGifeverynodeisconditionallyindependentofall
othernodesinthenetwork,givenitsMarkovblanket.[16]
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dseparation
Thisdefinitioncanbemademoregeneralbydefiningthe"d"separationoftwonodes,wheredstands
fordirectional.[18][19]LetPbeatrail(thatis,acollectionofedgeswhichislikeapath,buteachof
whoseedgesmayhaveanydirection)fromnodeutov.ThenPissaidtobedseparatedbyasetof
nodesZifandonlyif(atleast)oneofthefollowingholds:
1. Pcontainsachain,umv,suchthatthemiddlenodemisinZ,
2. Pcontainsafork,umv,suchthatthemiddlenodemisinZ,or
3. Pcontainsaninvertedfork(orcollider),umv,suchthatthemiddlenodemisnotinZand
nodescendantofmisinZ.
ThusuandvaresaidtobedseparatedbyZifalltrailsbetweenthemaredseparated.Ifuandvarenot
dseparated,theyarecalleddconnected.
XisaBayesiannetworkwithrespecttoGif,foranytwonodesu,v:

whereZisasetwhichdseparatesuandv.(TheMarkovblanketistheminimalsetofnodeswhichd
separatesnodevfromallothernodes.)

Hierarchicalmodels
ThetermhierarchicalmodelissometimesconsideredaparticulartypeofBayesiannetwork,buthasno
formaldefinition.Sometimesthetermisreservedformodelswiththreeormorelevelsofrandom
variablesothertimes,itisreservedformodelswithlatentvariables.Ingeneral,however,any
moderatelycomplexBayesiannetworkisusuallytermed"hierarchical".

Causalnetworks
AlthoughBayesiannetworksareoftenusedtorepresentcausalrelationships,thisneednotbethecase:a
directededgefromutovdoesnotrequirethatXviscausallydependentonXu.Thisisdemonstratedby
thefactthatBayesiannetworksonthegraphs:

areequivalent:thatistheyimposeexactlythesameconditionalindependencerequirements.
AcausalnetworkisaBayesiannetworkwithanexplicitrequirementthattherelationshipsbecausal.
TheadditionalsemanticsofthecausalnetworksspecifythatifanodeXisactivelycausedtobeina
givenstatex(anactionwrittenasdo(X=x)),thentheprobabilitydensityfunctionchangestotheoneof
thenetworkobtainedbycuttingthelinksfromtheparentsofXtoX,andsettingXtothecausedvalue
x.[1]Usingthesesemantics,onecanpredicttheimpactofexternalinterventionsfromdataobtainedprior
tointervention.

Applications
Bayesiannetworksareusedformodellingbeliefsincomputationalbiologyandbioinformatics(gene
regulatorynetworks,proteinstructure,geneexpressionanalysis,[20]learningepistasisfromGWASdata
sets[21])medicine,[22]biomonitoring,[23]documentclassification,informationretrieval,[24]semantic
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search,[25]imageprocessing,datafusion,decisionsupportsystems,[26]engineering,sportsbetting,[27][28]
gaming,law,[29][30][31]studydesign[32]andriskanalysis.[33][34][35]TherearetextsapplyingBayesian
networkstobioinformatics[36]andfinancialandmarketinginformatics.[37]

Software
WinBUGS
OpenBUGS(website(http://www.openbugs.net/w/FrontPage)),further(opensource)
developmentofWinBUGS.
OpenMarkov(http://www.openmarkov.org/),opensourcesoftwareandAPIimplementedinJava
GraphicalModelsToolkit(http://melodi.ee.washington.edu/gmtk)(GMTK)GMTKisanopen
source,publiclyavailabletoolkitforrapidlyprototypingstatisticalmodelsusingdynamic
graphicalmodels(DGMs)anddynamicBayesiannetworks(DBNs).GMTKcanbeusedfor
applicationsandresearchinspeechandlanguageprocessing,bioinformatics,activityrecognition,
andanytimeseriesapplication.
JustanotherGibbssampler(JAGS)(website(http://wwwfis.iarc.fr/~martyn/software/jags/))
Stan(software)(website(http://mcstan.org/))Stanisanopensourcepackageforobtaining
BayesianinferenceusingtheNoUTurnsampler,avariantofHamiltonianMonteCarlo.It's
somewhatlikeBUGS,butwithadifferentlanguageforexpressingmodelsandadifferentsampler
forsamplingfromtheirposteriors.RStanistheRinterfacetoStan.
PyMC(http://pymcdevs.github.io/pymc/)PyMCisapythonmodulethatimplementsBayesian
statisticalmodelsandfittingalgorithms,includingMarkovchainMonteCarlo.Itsflexibilityand
extensibilitymakeitapplicabletoalargesuiteofproblems.Alongwithcoresampling
functionality,PyMCincludesmethodsforsummarizingoutput,plotting,goodnessoffitand
convergencediagnostics.
GeNIe&Smile(website(http://genie.sis.pitt.edu/))SMILEisaC++libraryforBNandID,and
GeNIeisaGUIforit
SamIam(website(http://reasoning.cs.ucla.edu/samiam/)),aJavabasedsystemwithGUIandJava
API
BayesServer(http://www.BayesServer.com/)UserInterfaceandAPIforBayesiannetworks,
includessupportfortimeseriesandsequences
BeliefandDecisionNetworksonAIspace(http://www.aispace.org/bayes/index.shtml)
BayesiaLab(http://library.bayesia.com/display/HOME/The+BayesiaLab+Library/)byBayesia
Hugin(http://www.hugin.com/)
Netica(http://www.norsys.com/netica.html)byNorsys
dVelox(http://www.aparasw.com/index.php/en)byAparaSoftware
SystemModeler(http://www.inatas.com)byInatasAB
UnBBayes(http://sourceforge.net/projects/unbbayes/)byGIAUnB(IntelligenceArtificialGroup
UniversityofBrasilia)

History
Theterm"Bayesiannetworks"wascoinedbyJudeaPearlin1985toemphasizethreeaspects:[38]
1. Theoftensubjectivenatureoftheinputinformation.
2. TherelianceonBayes'conditioningasthebasisforupdatinginformation.
3. Thedistinctionbetweencausalandevidentialmodesofreasoning,whichunderscoresThomas
Bayes'posthumouslypublishedpaperof1763.[39]

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Inthelate1980sJudeaPearl'stextProbabilisticReasoninginIntelligentSystems[40]andRichardE.
Neapolitan'stextProbabilisticReasoninginExpertSystems[41]summarizedthepropertiesofBayesian
networksandestablishedBayesiannetworksasafieldofstudy.
InformalvariantsofsuchnetworkswerefirstusedbylegalscholarJohnHenryWigmore,intheformof
Wigmorecharts,toanalysetrialevidencein1913.[30]:6676Anothervariant,calledpathdiagrams,was
developedbythegeneticistSewallWright[42]andusedinsocialandbehavioralsciences(mostlywith
linearparametricmodels).

Seealso
Artificialintelligence
Bayes'theorem
Bayesianinference
Bayesianprobability
Bayesianprogramming
Beliefpropagation
Causalloopdiagram
ChowLiutree
Computationalintelligence
Computationalphylogenetics
Deepbeliefnetwork
DempsterShafertheoryaGeneralizationofBayes'theorem
DynamicBayesiannetwork
Expectationmaximizationalgorithm
Factorgraph
Graphicalmodel
Hierarchicaltemporalmemory
Influencediagram
JudeaPearl
Kalmanfilter
Machinelearning
Memorypredictionframework
Mixturedistribution
Mixturemodel
NaiveBayesclassifier
Pathanalysis
Polytree
Sensorfusion
Sequencealignment
Speechrecognition
Structuralequationmodeling
Subjectivelogic
VariableorderBayesiannetwork
Wigmorechart
Worldview

Notes
1. Pearl,Judea(2000).Causality:Models,Reasoning,andInference.CambridgeUniversityPress.ISBN0521
773628.OCLC42291253(https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/42291253).
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2. "TheBackDoorCriterion"(http://bayes.cs.ucla.edu/BOOK2K/ch33.pdf)(PDF).Retrieved20140918.
3. "dSeparationwithoutTears"(http://bayes.cs.ucla.edu/BOOK09/ch1112final.pdf)(PDF).Retrieved
20140918.
4. J.,Pearl(1994)."AProbabilisticCalculusofActions"(http://dl.acm.org/ft_gateway.cfm?
id=2074452&ftid=1062250&dwn=1&CFID=161588115&CFTOKEN=10243006).InLopezdeMantaras,R.
Poole,D.UAI'94ProceedingsoftheTenthinternationalconferenceonUncertaintyinartificialintelligence.
SanMateoCA:MorganKaufman.pp.454462.ISBN1558603328.
5. I.Shpitser,J.Pearl,"IdentificationofConditionalInterventionalDistributions"InR.DechterandT.S.
Richardson(Eds.),ProceedingsoftheTwentySecondConferenceonUncertaintyinArtificialIntelligence,
437444,Corvallis,OR:AUAIPress,2006.
6. Rebane,G.andPearl,J.,"TheRecoveryofCausalPolytreesfromStatisticalData,"Proceedings,3rd
WorkshoponUncertaintyinAI,(Seattle,WA)pages222228,1987
7. Spirtes,P.Glymour,C.(1991)."Analgorithmforfastrecoveryofsparsecausalgraphs"
(http://repository.cmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1316&context=philosophy)(PDF).SocialScience
ComputerReview9(1):6272.doi:10.1177/089443939100900106
(https://dx.doi.org/10.1177%2F089443939100900106).
8. Spirtes,PeterGlymour,ClarkN.Scheines,Richard(1993).Causation,Prediction,andSearch
(http://books.google.com/books?id=VkawQgAACAAJ)(1sted.).SpringerVerlag.ISBN9780387979793.
9. Verma,ThomasPearl,Judea(1991)."Equivalenceandsynthesisofcausalmodels".InBonissone,P.
Henrion,M.Kanal,L.N.Lemmer,J.F.UAI'90ProceedingsoftheSixthAnnualConferenceonUncertainty
inArtificialIntelligence.Elsevier.pp.255270.ISBN0444892648.
10. Friedman,NirGeiger,DanGoldszmidt,Moises(November1997)."BayesianNetworkClassifiers"
(http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1007465528199).MachineLearning29(23):131163.
doi:10.1023/A:1007465528199(https://dx.doi.org/10.1023%2FA%3A1007465528199).Retrieved24February
2015.
11. Friedman,NirLinial,MichalNachman,IftachPe'er,Dana(August2000)."UsingBayesianNetworksto
AnalyzeExpressionData"(http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/106652700750050961).Journalof
ComputationalBiology7(34):601620.doi:10.1089/106652700750050961
(https://dx.doi.org/10.1089%2F106652700750050961).Retrieved24February2015.
12. Petitjean,F.Webb,G.I.Nicholson,A.E.(2013).Scalingloglinearanalysistohighdimensionaldata
(http://www.tinyclues.eu/Research/Petitjean2013ICDM.pdf)(PDF).InternationalConferenceonData
Mining.Dallas,TX,USA:IEEE.
13. Nassif,HoussamWu,YirongPage,DavidBurnside,Elizabeth(2012)."LogicalDifferentialPrediction
BayesNet,ImprovingBreastCancerDiagnosisforOlderWomen"
(http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~hous21/papers/AMIA12.pdf)(PDF).AmericanMedicalInformaticsAssociation
Symposium(AMIA'12)(Chicago):13301339.Retrieved18July2014.
14. Nassif,HoussamKuusisto,FinnBurnside,ElizabethSPage,DavidShavlik,JudeSantosCosta,Vitor
(2013)."ScoreAsYouLift(SAYL):AStatisticalRelationalLearningApproachtoUpliftModeling"
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Furtherreading
ComputationalIntelligence:AMethodologicalIntroductionbyKruse,Borgelt,Klawonn,
Moewes,Steinbrecher,Held,2013,Springer,ISBN9781447150121
GraphicalModelsRepresentationsforLearning,ReasoningandDataMining,2ndEdition,by
Borgelt,Steinbrecher,Kruse,2009,J.Wiley&Sons,ISBN9780470749562

Externallinks
AtutorialonlearningwithBayesianNetworks
(http://research.microsoft.com/research/pubs/view.aspx?msr_tr_id=MSRTR9506)
AnIntroductiontoBayesianNetworksandtheirContemporaryApplications
(http://www.niedermayer.ca/papers/bayesian/bayes.html)
OnlineTutorialonBayesiannetsandprobability
(http://www.dcs.qmw.ac.uk/%7Enorman/BBNs/BBNs.htm)
WebApptocreateBayesiannetsandrunitwithaMonteCarlomethod
(http://princesofserendib.com/)
ContinuousTimeBayesianNetworks(http://robotics.stanford.edu/~nodelman/papers/ctbn.pdf)
BayesianNetworks:ExplanationandAnalogy
(http://wiki.syncleus.com/index.php/DANN:Bayesian_Network)
AlivetutorialonlearningBayesiannetworks(http://videolectures.net/kdd07_neapolitan_lbn/)
AhierarchicalBayesModelforhandlingsampleheterogeneityinclassificationproblems
(http://www.biomedcentral.com/14712105/7/514/abstract),providesaclassificationmodeltaking
intoconsiderationtheuncertaintyassociatedwithmeasuringreplicatesamples.
HierarchicalNaiveBayesModelforhandlingsampleuncertainty
(http://www.labmedinfo.org/download/lmi339.pdf),showshowtoperformclassificationand
learningwithcontinuousanddiscretevariableswithreplicatedmeasurements.
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