Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA equity research
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4 423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Ammash Aljuraid*
Analyst
HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited
+966 11 299 2105
ammashaljuraid@hsbc.com
Sriharsha Pappu*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4 423 6924
sriharsha.pappu@hsbc.com
Sagar Kumar*
Analyst
HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited
+966 11 299 2104
sagar.kumar@hsbc.com
Vikram Viswanathan*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4 423 6931
vikramviswanathan@hsbc.com
Yazeed M Alturki*
Analyst
HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited
+966 11 299 2260
yazeedmalturki@hsbc.com
Nicholas Paton*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4423 6923
nicholas.paton@hsbc.com
Telecom
Herve Drouet*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Plc
+44 20 7991 6827
herve.drouet@hsbcib.com
Simon Williams
Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4 423 6925
simon.williams@hsbc.com
Rana Nasser
Senior Economist, Middle East and North Africa
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4423 6928
razan.nasser@hsbc.com
Egypt
Shirin Panicker*
Analyst
HSBC Securities, Egypt, S.A.E.
+202 2529 8439
shirinpanicker@hsbc.com
Saudi Arabia
A guide to the market
Equities
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Patrick Gaffney*, CFA
Analyst
HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited
+966 11 299 2100
patrickgaffney@hsbc.com
After moves towards increased accessibility over the past seven years, the Saudi Arabian
cabinet has now authorised the Capital Market Authority to allow foreign institutions to trade
stocks on the Saudi stock market, paving the way for potentially a complete opening of the
market in 2015
We believe valuations should see a positive effect from the potential inclusion of the stocks
in various equity indices, which could follow soon after the opening of the market
Oilfield services
Peter Hitchens*
Analyst
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 6822
peter.hitchens@hsbcib.com
In this report we provide a macro overview of the market, and look at this new opportunity
from an equity strategy, industry sector and stock perspective
Utilities
Levent Bayar*
Analyst
HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S.
+90 212 3764617
leventbayar@hsbc.com.tr
Equity Strategy
John Lomax*
Head of Equity Strategy, GEMs
HSBC Bank plc, London
+44 20 7992 3712
john.lomax@hsbcib.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.
July 2014
Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst
certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Summary
Middle Eastern markets continue to be a focus for global investors with the announcement from the Saudi
Capital Market Authority that its equity markets could open to foreign investors in the first half of 2015.
Should this occur, we would expect Saudi stocks to become eligible for admission to global benchmark
indices, as such implying significant fund inflows both from active funds tracking FTSE, MSCI and other
indices as well as from the passive funds. In this report we provide a guide to the structural drivers in the
key equity sectors and details of 44 stocks we cover, and we include profiles on an additional 17 stocks
with interesting profiles but lower liquidity. We have also provided the views of our Economics, Equity
Strategy and Equity Quant teams.
Saudi Arabia's oil-funded expansionary fiscal stance will remain the prime driver of growth in the country,
with current and capital spending set to rise from last year's record high. Longer-term, Saudi's demographics
look attractive with 60% of the population under the age of 30 and a middle class set to grow from less than
20m today to 40m by 2050 (OECD). Furthermore, the local stock market is well-established, with a healthy
return of 120% since 2004, buoyed by rising oil prices and a GDP that has averaged 6.4% per annum, albeit
with a high level of volatility due to retail investors representing 90% of volumes.
In Saudi Arabia, both the cyclical and secular narratives remain attractive, in our view, with the
announcement regarding the opening of market to foreign investors acting as an additional catalyst. The
obstacles however relate more to valuations and more challenging bottom-up stock selection.
Nevertheless, from an equity strategy perspective we continue to favour an off-benchmark exposure,
emphasising the petrochemical sector as a whole as well as selected consumer and telecom stocks. We are
also positive on the banks sector in the Kingdom again from an equity strategy perspective.
We see significant advantages in many of the sectors in the Kingdom, most of which are difficult to
replicate. Saudi banks have access to one of the cheapest source of funds from low interest deposits while
the vast energy resources of the Kingdom should help industrials to get cheap electricity and fuel.
However petrochemical and fertiliser companies benefit the most as they have access to one the cheapest
sources of feedstock globally. We also see strong growth potential for Saudi consumer-facing companies
as they gain from Saudiasation (moves that encourage employers to hire more Saudis) and employment
growth in the Kingdom. On the other hand telecom companies should see a growth rate that is among the
highest in the world in data usage as other forms of entertainment are limited in the Kingdom.
Since 2007 the market has been open for investment for citizens of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
and since 2008 it has been accessible to non-GCC investors via swap agreements. A formal opening to
non-GCC investors would carry a much more significant impact from direct investment and the potential
inclusion or upgrade in equity market indices. Should Saudi Arabia be admitted to the EM indices we
estimate that it would constitute 4% of the MSCI EM index.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Ticker
Abdullah Al-Khodari
Abdullah Al Othaim
Advanced Petro Chem.
Al Mouwasat Medical
Alinma Bank
Almarai
Alrajhi Banking
Arab National Bank
Astra Industrial
Banque Saudi Fransi
Dallah Healthcare
Dar Al Arkan
Etihad Etisalat(Mobily)
Fawaz Alhokair
Herfy Food Services
Jabal Omar
Jarir Marketing
Maaden
Methanol Chemicals
NIC (Tasnee)
National Medical Care
National Petrochemical
Qassim Cement
PetroRabigh
Riyad Bank
Sahara Petrochemical
Samba Financial Group
Saudi Airlines Catering
Saudi Arabian Amiantit
Saudi Arabian Fertilizer
Saudi Basic Industries
Saudi Cement Company
Saudi Electricity Co.
Saudi Industrial Invst.
Saudi International Petro
Saudi Kayan
Saudi Pharmaceutical
Saudi Real Estate
Saudi Steel Pipes
Saudi Telecom Co.
Savola
Yamamah Cement
Yanbu Cement
Yanbu Petrochemical
Zamil Industries
1330.SE
4001.SE
2330.SE
4002.SE
1150.SE
2280.SE
1120.SE
1080.SE
1212.SE
1050.SE
4004.SE
4300.SE
7020.SE
4240.SE
6002.SE
4250.SE
4190.SE
1211.SE
2001.SE
2060.SE
4005.SE
2002.SE
3040.SE
2380.SE
1010.SE
2260.SE
1090.SE
6004.SE
2160.SE
2020.SE
2010.SE
3030.SE
5110.SE
2250.SE
2310.SE
2350.SE
2070.SE
4020.SE
1320.SE
7010.SE
2050.SE
3020.SE
3060.SE
2290.SE
2240.SE
Rating
MCap
(USDm)
CP
TP
OW
N
N (V)
OW
N
N
N
OW
N
N
OW
N
N
N
N
N
OW
N
N (V)
N
N
N (V)
N
OW
N
N
OW
OW
N
OW
OW
OW
N
OW
N
N
N
N
N
OW
N
N
N
N
N
722
1,302
2,160
1,443
7,939
11,678
29,354
7,759
947
10,766
1,309
3,916
17,853
6,019
1,287
13,133
4,799
9,175
531
6,349
879
4,402
2,328
7,852
14,678
2,761
13,438
4,236
557
14,264
98,784
4,508
17,997
4,487
3,500
6,039
1,529
1,389
480
38,394
11,283
3,334
3,087
10,501
972
51.00
108.50
49.40
108.25
19.85
73.00
67.75
29.10
47.90
33.50
104.00
13.60
86.96
107.50
104.50
53.00
200.00
37.20
16.50
35.60
73.50
34.40
97.00
33.62
18.35
23.60
42.00
193.75
18.10
160.50
123.50
110.50
16.20
37.40
35.80
15.10
47.80
43.40
35.30
72.00
79.25
61.75
73.50
70.02
60.75
44.00
82.00
45.00
126.00
21.30
67.00
74.00
37.00
63.00
37.00
115.00
14.00
98.00
90.50
107.86
47.00
237.00
38.00
16.00
35.00
78.00
28.00
101.00
45.00
20.40
23.00
55.00
186.00
16.40
176.00
130.00
130.00
15.90
41.00
34.00
16.00
47.08
40.00
37.50
71.00
74.00
70.00
78.00
77.00
48.00
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC estimates Note: Closing price as on 22 Jul 2014
_____ PE ______
2013 2014e 2015e
42.1
25.4
14.5
26.9
29.3
29.2
14.8
11.5
14.0
16.8
35.9
21.6
10.0
36.5
25.2
0.0
27.6
10.6
27.6
21.6
35.6
0.0
14.9
82.0
13.9
17.9
11.2
30.4
20.6
13.2
14.7
15.0
22.2
23.6
21.2
0.0
21.2
29.0
21.0
13.9
24.8
15.1
14.1
14.9
15.5
28.2
19.5
15.8
25.9
24.5
25.0
14.2
10.0
11.4
13.2
31.0
15.5
9.8
28.6
23.2
40.9
23.8
7.8
14.8
11.5
28.8
14.3
14.6
12.1
12.9
14.4
10.5
27.4
12.5
15.4
11.7
14.8
20.4
10.4
15.9
13.9
17.7
31.9
15.5
12.1
22.7
16.4
14.1
12.5
13.6
17.6
17.1
15.9
20.2
21.5
18.0
13.4
9.1
9.3
12.4
25.1
12.6
9.6
23.0
20.6
40.6
20.4
6.5
16.1
11.7
25.3
15.2
16.7
8.6
11.8
13.8
9.7
22.2
10.7
12.9
11.6
13.3
17.7
10.9
14.4
13.2
15.1
29.7
12.9
11.6
18.7
18.0
16.7
12.6
12.6
_____ EV/EBITDA_______
2013
2014e
2015e
16.2
16.4
10.5
21.2
NM
16.7
NM
NM
19.3
NM
27.0
17.5
8.3
30.7
20.4
0.0
27.2
26.5
10.6
11.4
26.0
35.0
11.4
26.7
NM
17.1
NM
26.7
8.8
11.7
8.3
12.6
9.9
35.2
11.5
20.5
12.4
26.8
14.4
7.2
12.8
10.5
11.3
10.6
11.3
13.7
12.8
10.8
19.4
NM
14.5
NM
NM
13.6
NM
22.7
13.5
7.9
22.6
18.0
39.6
23.0
37.7
8.1
8.1
22.5
11.2
11.1
10.2
NM
12.2
NM
23.1
7.6
13.6
7.1
12.3
10.4
11.1
9.1
10.6
11.0
23.6
11.9
6.7
11.2
10.8
10.7
9.4
10.0
11.1
11.4
10.7
14.5
NM
12.2
NM
NM
9.8
NM
18.7
11.5
7.5
17.2
16.0
35.1
19.3
21.4
8.0
7.9
19.5
10.8
12.7
7.6
NM
9.7
NM
18.6
7.2
11.3
6.8
11.2
10.8
10.8
8.1
9.8
9.3
21.9
10.0
6.2
9.6
11.5
12.4
9.4
9.0
11.4%
28.8%
22.2%
22.5%
6.9%
16.6%
20.6%
14.8%
15.9%
12.5%
12.9%
5.4%
26.9%
35.5%
32.4%
12.6%
58.6%
22.0%
8.3%
16.6%
13.8%
25.3%
29.7%
25.0%
12.8%
12.0%
13.7%
47.4%
10.6%
32.7%
19.2%
35.3%
5.7%
23.8%
13.8%
11.0%
8.5%
4.9%
14.0%
19.9%
18.4%
19.4%
24.9%
20.4%
16.1%
16.3%
29.5%
21.1%
26.1%
7.3%
20.9%
20.1%
14.9%
17.9%
12.0%
14.6%
6.4%
24.8%
36.8%
32.1%
11.3%
57.4%
25.8%
7.4%
15.2%
15.1%
20.6%
25.6%
29.8%
13.3%
11.8%
13.6%
52.5%
12.2%
39.7%
17.6%
38.7%
6.2%
20.1%
14.3%
10.4%
9.8%
5.3%
16.4%
18.9%
20.9%
17.6%
20.7%
19.5%
16.2%
Perf.
YTD
53.5%
79.4%
28.0%
17.5%
0.0%
37.3%
0.0%
0.0%
-6.3%
0.0%
52.3%
40.9%
2.9%
53.8%
31.2%
71.2%
26.5%
17.7%
7.1%
7.0%
35.3%
30.3%
10.1%
33.3%
0.0%
22.8%
0.0%
34.8%
16.8%
2.4%
13.4%
8.6%
19.2%
21.5%
18.0%
-3.4%
12.3%
27.6%
-3.9%
31.5%
31.2%
8.3%
10.8%
-2.9%
42.4%
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Contents
Saudi to open its equity
market
10
Economics
16
17
Banks
19
23
26
Riyad Bank
29
32
35
Alinma
38
Bank AlBilad
41
Bank AlJazira
43
45
47
49
Advanced Petrochemical
57
60
63
66
70
73
Yansab
76
Kayan
79
82
85
Maaden
89
92
95
100
103
Qassim Cement
106
Yanbu Cement
109
112
115
118
Zamil Industries
121
124
126
128
130
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Real Estate
132
Consumers
135
203
Dar Al Arkan
208
Jabal Omar
211
138
214
Almarai
141
217
144
Insurance
147
150
Savola
153
156
159
161
219
224
226
Telecoms
229
233
163
236
165
Zain KSA
239
167
Halwani Brothers
169
171
173
175
177
179
Healthcare
181
185
Dallah Healthcare
188
191
194
197
200
Utilities
Saudi Electricity Company (SEC)
241
244
Disclosure appendix
249
Disclaimer
252
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
2)
Vijay Sumon*
Head of Indexation
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 6839
vijay.sumon@hsbcib.com
Joaquim de Lima *
Head of Equity Quantitative
Research
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 6836
joaquim.delima@hsbcib.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Scenario analysis
In our analysis, we assume the following: the
current domestic inclusion factor is equivalent to
the investable free float for Saudi stocks; we
apply minimum size criteria of USD1.4bn at the
company level. Using these criteria we estimate
the new opportunity set for Saudi Arabia will
consist of 45 stocks.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
_______Current EM Index_______
Number of stocks
Weight %
Asia
EMEA
Latam
535
159
140
62.2%
18.1%
19.7%
535
204
140
59.6%
21.6%
18.9%
-2.6%
3.5%
-0.8%
-5,480
7,215
-1,735
Total
834
100%
879
100%
0.0%
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
Hungary
Czech Republic
Peru
Qatar
UAE
Greece
Philippines
Colombia
Chile
Poland
Turkey
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Russia
Mexico
India
South Africa
Brazil
Taiwan
Korea
China
0
4
3
3
3
10
9
10
20
14
20
23
25
29
30
43
22
30
68
50
73
101
103
141
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
1.0%
1.0%
1.5%
1.6%
1.8%
2.3%
2.7%
3.9%
4.9%
5.2%
6.6%
7.5%
11.5%
12.1%
15.2%
18.4%
45
4
3
3
3
10
9
10
20
14
20
23
25
29
30
43
22
30
68
50
73
101
103
141
4.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
0.9%
1.0%
1.4%
1.6%
1.7%
2.2%
2.6%
3.7%
4.6%
5.0%
6.3%
7.2%
11.0%
11.6%
14.6%
17.7%
4.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.8%
8,808
-18
-18
-19
-38
-41
-47
-62
-86
-90
-130
-143
-155
-201
-235
-342
-428
-461
-584
-661
-1,016
-1,067
-1,340
-1,624
Total
834
100%
879
100%
0.0%
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
_______Current EM Index_______
Number of
Weight %
stocks
Net flow
USDm
Materials
Financials
Telecom. Services
Consumer Staples
Health Care
Utilities
Consumer Discretionary
Industrials
Energy
Information Technology
98
210
46
81
30
52
88
112
51
66
8.80%
27.10%
7.10%
8.30%
1.90%
3.60%
9.10%
6.50%
10.50%
17.10%
114
226
49
83
30
53
91
114
53
66
9.90%
27.60%
7.20%
8.20%
1.80%
3.50%
8.90%
6.30%
10.20%
16.40%
1.10%
0.50%
0.20%
-0.10%
-0.10%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.20%
-0.40%
-0.70%
2,313
968
338
-262
-164
-143
-453
-353
-735
-1,510
Total
834
100%
879
100%
0.0%
Sector impact
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
_______Current EM Index_______
Number of stocks
Weight %
Asia
EMEA
Latam
34
87
6
14.3%
77.6%
8.1%
34
132
6
5.4%
91.5%
3.1%
-8.9%
14.0%
-5.1%
-99
156
-57
Total
127
100%
172
100%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.6%
0.7%
1.2%
1.4%
1.7%
1.8%
1.9%
2.2%
2.2%
2.7%
3.5%
3.7%
4.6%
4.9%
6.1%
7.2%
8.1%
19.6%
24.8%
45
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
3
4
3
4
4
4
12
3
9
5
9
15
6
18
8
62.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
1.3%
1.4%
1.7%
1.9%
2.3%
2.7%
3.1%
7.4%
9.4%
62.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.2%
-1.4%
-1.4%
-1.7%
-2.2%
-2.3%
-2.8%
-3.1%
-3.8%
-4.5%
-5.1%
-12.2%
-15.4%
695
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-4
-5
-9
-9
-12
-12
-13
-15
-15
-19
-24
-26
-32
-34
-42
-50
-57
-137
-172
127
100%
172
100%
0.0%
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
_______Current FM Index_______
Number of
Weight %
stocks
Net flow
USDm
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Utilities
Information Technology
Industrials
Health Care
Telecom. Services
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
15
3
2
0
5
3
14
11
16
58
5.70%
0.50%
0.40%
0.00%
3.40%
2.70%
14.50%
10.50%
12.10%
50.10%
15
3
2
0
5
3
14
11
16
58
24.00%
2.70%
1.40%
0.00%
2.90%
1.00%
12.30%
7.30%
5.90%
42.60%
18.30%
2.10%
1.00%
0.00%
-0.60%
-1.70%
-2.20%
-3.20%
-6.20%
-7.50%
204
24
11
0
-6
-19
-25
-36
-69
-84
Total
127
100%
127
100%
0.0%
Sector impacts
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
catalyst
Prefer petrochemicals and selected consumer, telecoms and
bank exposure
10
John Lomax*
Head of Global Emerging
Market Equity Strategy
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7992 3712
john.lomax@hsbcib.com
Kishore Muktinutalapati*
Associate
Bangalore
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
11
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
4.0
6000
3.5
5000
3.0
4000
2.5
3000
2.0
2000
1.5
1.0
1000
0.5
0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
0.0
07
12
09
10
11
12
13
Tadawul Index 6m ADTV (USDbn)
14
Sector
Materials
Financials
Telecommunication Services
Consumer Staples
Consumer Discretionary
Industrials
Utilities
Energy
Health Care
Total
08
Market liberalisation
According to Reuters (Saudi Arabia prepares to
open $530 billion bourse to foreigners, 22 July
2014), the Saudi Arabian cabinet authorized the
Capital Market Authority (CMA) at a time it sees
as appropriate to allow foreign financial
institutions to buy and sell stocks on the Saudi
stock market, according to rules to be laid down by
the CMA.
Weight (%)
34.6%
33.8%
11.0%
5.5%
4.5%
3.9%
3.6%
2.1%
1.0%
100.0%
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
Top 5
6
7
8
9
10
Top 6-10
Stock Name
Saudi Basic Industries
Saudi Telecom
Al Rajhi Bank
Kingdom Holding
Saudi Electricity
Etihad Etisalat Co.
Riyad Bank
Saudi Arabia Frtz.
The Saudi British Bk.
Samba Financial Group
Weight (%)
17.5%
7.1%
5.4%
4.5%
3.4%
37.8%
3.2%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
13.5%
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
13
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
300%
10%
250%
5%
200%
0%
150%
-5%
100%
-10%
50%
-15%
Pre liberalisation
-20%
Jan-07
Oct-07
Jul-08
Turnover ratios*
Apr-09
Jan-10
1992
1995
Saudi Arabia
Oct-10
14
0%
Post liberalisation
1998
2001
2004
DM
2007
EM
2010
GCC
Notes: *Turnover ratio is the total value of shares traded during the period divided by the
average market capitalisation for the period. Source: Tadawul, Thomson Reuters Datastream
t-1
t-2
t-3
t-4
t-5
t-6
t-7
** 1% significance level; * 5% significance level
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC
0.073**
-0.047*
0.043*
0.066**
-0.021
-0.042*
0.017
-0.006
0.104**
0.000
-0.041
-0.016
-0.051
0.032
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
28.0x
60%
60%
24.0x
50%
40%
40%
20%
30%
0%
20%
-20%
10%
-40%
20.0x
16.0x
12.0x
-60%
0%
8.0x
06
07
08
09
10
12 month trailing PE
07
11
12
13
14
12 month forward PE
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
12 month forward Earnings growth
y-o-y returns (RHS)
Price/Sales ratio
Price/Book ratio
6.0x
4.0x
3.5x
5.0x
3.0x
2.5x
4.0x
2.0x
3.0x
1.5x
1.0x
2.0x
08
09
10
11
12 month trailing P/S
08
12
13
14
12 month forward P/S
09
11
12 month trailing PB
Earnings yield
Dividend Yield
12.0%
10
12
13
14
12 month forward PB
5.0%
11.0%
4.5%
10.0%
9.0%
4.0%
8.0%
3.5%
7.0%
3.0%
6.0%
2.5%
5.0%
2.0%
4.0%
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
12 month forward Earnings Yield
14
08
09
10
12 month trailing DY
11
12
13
14
12 month forward DY
15
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Economics
Slowing, but still strong
We remain upbeat on the Kingdoms near-term
economic prospects, and continue to look for strong
growth in domestic demand, underpinned by high
oil receipts and two more years of fiscal and
current account surplus. The impact that unrest in
Iraq, Libya and Ukraine has had on global energy
prices represents upside risk to this view.
The governments oil-funded expansionary fiscal
stance will remain the prime driver of growth,
with current and capital spending set to rise from
last years record high. The government will also
be a prime driver of a raft of other large industrial
and infrastructure development projects (such as
the Riyadh Metro) which are state sponsored, but
not directly state financed.
With inflation low and the dollar-peg in place, we
also expect SAMAs monetary stance to remain
loose, with funding from domestic sources
enhanced by improving access to global debt and
equity markets. Saudi Arabias demographic
profile 60% of the population are under the age
of 30 will support gains in consumption. With
GDP (% y-o-y)
Current account (% GDP)
Budget Balance (% GDP)
Trade Balance (% GDP)
CPI (% end year)
Public Debt (% GDP)
External debt (% GDP)
Policy rate (% end year)
USD/SAR (end year)
EUR/SAR (end year)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013e
2014f
2015f
8.2
24.4
29.8
40.9
9.0
12.1
18.5
1.50
3.75
5.22
2.0
3.5
-5.4
24.6
4.2
14.0
23.2
0.25
3.75
5.40
7.5
13.4
4.4
29.3
5.4
8.5
19.7
0.25
3.75
5.02
8.6
22.8
11.6
36.6
5.3
5.4
16.6
0.25
3.75
4.87
5.8
21.8
13.7
34.0
3.9
3.6
15.8
0.25
3.75
4.94
4.1
17.1
6.4
30.1
3.0
2.7
15.3
0.25
3.75
5.13
4.2
13.4
3.7
26.6
3.5
2.9
14.4
0.25
3.75
4.79
3.9
9.2
2.3
23.7
4.3
3.1
14.1
0.25
3.75
4.68
Source: Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency, Central Department of Statistics and Information (CDSI), HSBC estimates and forecasts
16
Simon Williams
Economist
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6925
simon.williams@hsbc.com
Razan Nasser
Economist
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6928
razan.nasser@hsbc.com
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
17
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
18
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Banks
19
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Banks
We do not expect core revenue growth to rise above 10% during
Sector view
Core revenue growth will struggle to
recover in 2014e and 2015e
A combination of low interest rates, a cap on loan to
deposit ratios of 85% and the strong capitalisation of
Saudi banks means that the sector will struggle to
substantially improve its core revenue growth in
2014e and 2015e, in our view. Alinma Bank and
Riyad Bank are the exceptions due to faster and
more stable loan growth, mainly as a result of their
surplus capital positions. We forecast sector core
revenues to increase 9% in 2014e and 2015e. Q2
2014 earnings results confirmed our full year
expectation. An increase in interest rates will be a
key driver of improvement. We factor in a 20bp
increase in 2015e and expect Saudi banks core
revenue growth to recover to 13% in 2016e.
20
15
(2)
4
2
7
4
5
20
2
15
3
12
7
10
15
0
10
12
15
(3)
8
16
4
9
9
9
8
9
15
5
8
9
12
9
9
15
8
10
20
16
16
13
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates; Note: *core revenue = net interest income + fees;
latest core revenue figures for Q2 14 are not out yet
Aybek Islamov*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East
+ 971 4423 6921
aybek.islamov@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
1
16
13
9
7
9
9
7
10
15
9
6
14
10
2
9
13
10
12
11
10
3
13
10
9
8
12
9
3
15
12
15
10
6
10
5
10
16
9
11
17
12
Source: company data, HSBC estimates, Q2 14 details are not out yet
Albilad
Alinma
Alrajhi
ANB
BSF
NCB
Riyad
SABB
Samba
SHB
SIB
Total
2010
2011
2012
2013
4.4%
0.0%
1.0%
2.8%
1.0%
3.4%
1.1%
2.7%
2.6%
2.3%
4.5%
2.2%
4.4%
0.0%
0.9%
2.9%
0.9%
2.8%
0.8%
1.2%
1.9%
2.0%
6.0%
1.8%
n/a
0.2%
1.5%
2.5%
0.7%
2.7%
1.2%
1.1%
1.3%
1.6%
0.6%
1.5%
1.7%
0.4%
0.9%
1.7%
1.1%
1.3%
0.6%
1.1%
1.1%
1.3%
0.5%
1.1%
21
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Albilad
Alinma
Alrajhi
ANB
BSF
NCB
Riyad
SABB
Samba*
SHB
SIB
Total
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.5%
0.0%
2.0%
0.4%
0.9%
1.2%
1.0%
0.7%
1.8%
0.9%
1.5%
1.2%
1.7%
0.5%
1.6%
0.6%
0.7%
1.4%
0.9%
1.2%
1.8%
0.8%
1.6%
1.2%
n/a
0.5%
1.3%
0.5%
0.7%
1.5%
0.9%
1.3%
1.6%
0.8%
1.7%
1.1%
2.0%
0.7%
1.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.3%
0.8%
1.0%
1.3%
0.8%
1.0%
1.1%
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates; Note *Samba does not disclose total collective
provisions. We only include the collective provisions which the company reports in its Tier 2
capital
2012
49
142
63
46
100
30
72
22
61
110
53
57
50
37
61
67
93
53
58
60
37
61
72
83
58
58
78
46
66
76
88
85
58
91
54
75
Alinma
Alrajhi
ANB
BSF
Riyad
Samba
Average
Source: HSBC estimates
PE 2015e
EPS CAGR
13-15e
PEG
21.4
13.4
9.1
12.5
11.8
9.7
12.8
17%
5%
12%
16%
9%
7%
9%
1.3
2.7
0.8
0.9
1.3
1.4
1.4
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Aybek Islamov*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East
+ 971 4423 6921
aybek.islamov@hsbc.com
Financials
Investment thesis
Good improvement in core revenue despite
weak loan growth. Recent quarters confirm that
Valuation
We derive our target prices for Saudi banks using
a residual income methodology, using an inflation
differential model to calculate the cost of equity.
The residual income valuation approach calculates
the fair value of the company as the sum of its
current net asset value and the present value of its
future residual income. The residual income is
measured as an excess return over cost of equity.
To calculate the cost of equity by the inflation
differential method, we assume cost of equity as
the sum of the US risk-free rate (3.0%), the
inflation differential between Saudi Arabia and
the US (2.6%) and the equity risk premium
(5.5%) multiplied by the stock beta (1.0 for Saudi
banks we cover). Our estimated cost of equity for
ANB is 11.1%. Under our research model, for
stocks without a volatility indicator, the Neutral
band is 5 percentage points above and below the
hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9.0%. Our target
price of SAR37 implies a potential return of 27%,
23
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risks
Key downside risks include:
24
abc
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
3,375
1,053
65
616
5,110
-1,994
-627
36
2,525
0
2,525
0
-3
2,522
2,522
3,613
1,194
18
604
5,428
-2,070
-499
42
2,900
0
2,900
0
-3
2,897
2,897
3,860
1,326
0
663
5,848
-2,162
-547
48
3,188
0
3,188
0
-3
3,185
3,185
4,215
1,473
0
719
6,407
-2,258
-671
52
3,530
0
3,530
0
-4
3,526
3,526
18,655
18,655
88,456
28,248
106,373
133,787
137,935
20,425
20,425
95,875
34,762
115,946
139,836
148,853
22,369
22,369
105,963
35,679
127,541
151,966
162,392
24,522
24,522
120,284
36,660
144,121
168,001
181,126
123,778
15.1
15.1
16.0
136,476
15.0
15.0
15.9
148,392
15.1
15.1
15.9
164,996
14.9
14.9
15.6
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
7.4
5.4
8.8
6.4
6.4
-50.0
10.0
6.2
3.8
7.8
14.9
14.9
36.5
9.5
7.7
4.4
9.8
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.5
9.6
4.4
12.6
10.7
10.7
10.7
9.6
Year-on-year % change
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provision profit
EPS
HSBC EPS
DPS
NAV (including goodwill)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.7
0.1
0.5
-1.6
2.5
-0.5
2.1
6.9
13.5
2.8
0.0
0.5
-1.6
2.6
-0.4
2.2
6.7
14.1
2.7
0.0
0.5
-1.5
2.6
-0.4
2.2
6.7
14.2
2.7
0.0
0.5
-1.4
2.6
-0.4
2.3
6.7
14.3
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
11.5
9.3
1.6
8.3
1.5
10.0
8.7
1.4
6.9
2.0
9.1
7.9
1.3
8.1
2.2
8.3
7.0
1.2
8.1
2.4
PE*
Pre-provision multiple
P/NAV
Equity cash flow yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Note: * = Based on HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR)29.10
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
Target price
1080.SE
7,804
34
Saudi Arabia
Aybek Islamov
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
2012
2013
Arab National Bank
Ratios (%)
Cost/income ratio
Bad debt charge
Customer loans/deposits
NPL/loan
NPL/RWA
Provision to risk assets/RWA
Net write-off/RWA
Coverage
ROE (including goodwill)
Year to
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
1
(%) 1
.
8
(SAR)37.00
ARNB AB
26,605
COMMERCIAL BANKS
+9714 423 6921
Price relative
Overweight
39.0
0.7
83.2
1.1
0.8
1.7
1.0
204.7
14.2
38.1
0.5
82.7
1.1
0.8
1.4
0.5
172.0
14.8
37.0
0.5
83.1
1.1
0.8
1.3
0.3
169.7
14.9
35.2
0.6
83.5
1.1
0.8
1.3
0.3
166.1
15.0
2.52
2.52
0.43
18.66
18.66
2.90
2.90
0.58
20.42
20.42
3.18
3.18
0.64
22.37
22.37
3.53
3.53
0.71
24.52
24.52
2014
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
2015
25
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Aybek Islamov*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East
+ 971 4423 6921
aybek.islamov@hsbc.com
Investment thesis
One-off normalisation in bad asset charge should
lift 2014e ROE to 12.5% from 10.7% last year. We
26
Financials
We forecast BSF to report earnings of SAR3.07bn
(before zakat) in 2014e, increasing 27% y-o-y
with ROE of 12.5%. Our earnings estimates are
inline with Bloomberg consensus for 2014e and
6% below consensus for 2015e.
Valuation
We derive our target prices for Saudi banks using
a residual income methodology, using an inflation
differential model to calculate the cost of equity.
The residual income valuation approach calculates
the fair value of the company as the sum of its
current net asset value and the present value of its
future residual income.
To calculate the cost of equity by the inflation
differential method, we assume cost of equity as
the sum of the US risk-free rate (3.0%), the
inflation differential between Saudi Arabia and
the US (2.6%) and the equity risk premium
(5.5%) multiplied by the stock beta (1.0 for Saudi
banks we cover). Our estimated cost of equity for
BSF is 11.1%. Under our research model, for
stocks without a volatility indicator, the Neutral
band is 5 percentage points above and below the
hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%. Our target
price of SAR37 implies a potential return of 10%,
which is within the Neutral band of 4%-14% for
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Risks
Key downside risks include:
27
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
3,363
1,150
106
434
5,053
-1,684
-957
-5
2,406
0
2,406
0
0
2,406
2,406
3,697
1,251
150
428
5,526
-1,776
-688
3
3,066
0
3,066
0
-2
3,064
3,064
4,041
1,350
40
447
5,878
-1,853
-768
4
3,261
0
3,261
0
-2
3,259
3,259
4,981
1,465
0
417
6,863
-1,976
-865
4
4,026
0
4,026
0
-2
4,023
4,023
23,217
23,217
111,307
34,299
131,601
157,803
170,057
25,798
25,798
123,491
38,264
144,761
172,655
185,799
28,543
28,543
137,109
42,823
162,133
190,209
205,918
31,932
31,932
152,722
48,066
180,595
210,788
227,771
165,884
13.9
13.9
15.6
183,839
14.0
14.0
15.6
204,086
14.0
14.0
15.4
227,212
14.1
14.1
15.3
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
0.9
8.5
-2.6
-20.2
-20.2
-66.7
6.1
9.4
5.4
11.3
27.4
27.4
27.4
11.1
6.4
4.3
7.3
6.4
6.4
6.4
10.6
16.8
6.6
21.4
23.5
23.5
23.5
11.9
Year-on-year % change
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provision profit
EPS
HSBC EPS
DPS
NAV (including goodwill)
33.3
0.9
84.6
1.3
0.9
1.3
-0.2
146.2
10.7
32.1
0.6
85.3
1.2
0.8
1.4
-0.2
168.0
12.5
31.5
0.6
84.6
1.0
0.7
1.4
-0.2
194.4
12.0
28.8
0.6
84.6
1.1
0.8
1.4
-0.3
176.6
13.3
2.00
2.00
0.16
19.26
19.26
2.54
2.54
0.20
21.40
21.40
2.70
2.70
0.21
23.68
23.68
3.34
3.34
0.26
26.49
26.49
28
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.1
0.1
0.3
-1.1
2.1
-0.6
1.5
7.1
10.4
2.1
0.1
0.2
-1.0
2.1
-0.4
1.8
7.1
11.9
2.1
0.0
0.2
-1.0
2.1
-0.4
1.7
7.1
11.4
2.3
0.0
0.2
-0.9
2.3
-0.4
1.9
7.1
12.6
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
16.8
12.0
1.7
3.6
0.5
13.2
10.8
1.6
4.5
0.6
12.4
10.0
1.4
4.6
0.6
10.0
8.3
1.3
6.0
0.8
PE*
Pre-provision multiple
P/NAV
Equity cash flow yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Note: * = Based on HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR) 33.50
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
Target price
1050.SE
10,766
40
Saudi Arabia
Aybek Islamov
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
2012
2013
Banque Saudi Fransi
Ratios (%)
Cost/income ratio
Bad debt charge
Customer loans/deposits
NPL/loan
NPL/RWA
Provision to risk assets/RWA
Net write-off/RWA
Coverage
ROE (including goodwill)
Year to
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
8
(%) .
8
(SAR)37.00
BSFR AB
30,737
COMMERCIAL BANKS
+9714 423 6921
Price relative
Neutral
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Riyad Bank
RIBL AB, Price SAR18.35, Neutral,
TP SAR20.5
Company description
Riyad Bank was established in 1957. It has the
third-largest branch network in Saudi Arabia and
is currently mainly owned by Saudi shareholders.
We estimate it had market share of around 12% in
loans and 11% in deposits as of March 2014.
Riyad bank is engaged in a wide array of retail
and corporate banking services. The bank is
primarily a corporate bank with corporate loans
forming 74% of the total loan book end of Q1
2014. In December 2013, SAMA issued the first
license for real estate financing and lease
financing to Riyad Bank.
Investment thesis
Good growth in core revenue. Stable increases
Aybek Islamov*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East
+ 971 4423 6921
aybek.islamov@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Financials
We forecast Riyad bank to report earnings of
SAR4.26bn (before zakat) in 2014e, an increase of
8% over 2013, on the back of 11% and 8% increases
in non-interest income and net interest income
respectively, generating an ROE of 12.8%. Our
earnings estimates are 2% and 1% above Bloomberg
consensus for 2014e and 2015e respectively.
Valuation
We derive our target prices for Saudi banks using
a residual income methodology, using an inflation
differential model to calculate the cost of equity.
The residual income valuation approach calculates
the fair value of the company as the sum of its
current net asset value and the present value of its
future residual income. The residual income is
measured as an excess return over cost of equity.
To calculate the cost of equity by the inflation
differential method, we assume cost of equity as
the sum of the US risk-free rate (3.0%), the
inflation differential between Saudi Arabia and the
US (2.6%) and the equity risk premium (5.5%)
multiplied by the stock beta (1.0 for Saudi banks
29
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risks
Key upside risks include:
30
abc
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Neutral
Financial statements
Year to
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
4,697
1,821
-4
559
7,074
-2,578
-627
79
3,947
0
3,947
0
0
3,947
3,947
5,058
2,019
0
616
7,693
-2,789
-710
62
4,257
0
4,257
0
0
4,257
4,257
5,692
2,196
0
592
8,479
-2,901
-966
69
4,681
0
4,681
0
0
4,681
4,681
6,704
2,416
0
590
9,710
-3,078
-1,434
76
5,274
0
5,274
0
0
5,274
5,274
32,470
32,470
131,191
43,538
153,200
191,641
205,246
34,170
34,170
146,765
45,179
170,052
208,640
222,464
36,040
36,040
168,437
46,887
195,163
230,632
249,511
38,158
38,158
192,998
48,663
223,621
259,319
280,143
204,525
16.6
16.6
17.1
222,820
16.0
16.0
16.4
250,164
15.0
15.0
15.4
281,103
14.1
14.1
14.4
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Year-on-year % change
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provision profit
EPS
HSBC EPS
DPS
NAV (including goodwill)
4.2
9.7
1.3
13.9
13.9
11.5
5.3
8.7
8.2
9.1
7.8
7.8
7.6
5.2
10.2
4.0
13.8
10.0
10.0
10.0
5.5
14.5
6.1
18.9
12.7
12.7
12.7
5.9
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.4
0.0
0.3
-1.3
2.3
-0.3
2.0
6.1
11.7
2.4
0.0
0.3
-1.3
2.3
-0.3
2.0
6.4
12.0
2.4
0.0
0.3
-1.2
2.4
-0.4
2.0
6.7
12.5
2.5
0.0
0.2
-1.2
2.5
-0.5
2.0
7.2
13.3
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
13.9
12.2
1.7
4.7
4.0
12.9
11.2
1.6
5.4
4.3
11.8
9.9
1.5
5.0
4.7
10.4
8.3
1.4
5.6
5.3
PE*
Pre-provision multiple
P/NAV
Equity cash flow yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Note: * = Based on HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR)18.35
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
Target price
1010.SE
14,677
31
Saudi Arabia
Aybek Islamov
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
2
(%) 4
.
2
(SAR)20.50
RIBL AB
49,500
COMMERCIAL BANKS
+9714 423 6921
21
21
19
19
17
17
15
15
13
13
11
11
9
2012
2013
Riyad Bank
Ratios (%)
Cost/income ratio
Bad debt charge
Customer loans/deposits
NPL/loan
NPL/RWA
Provision to risk assets/RWA
Net write-off/RWA
Coverage
ROE (including goodwill)
12/2013a
Price relative
Year to
36.4
0.5
85.6
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.8
152.8
12.5
36.3
0.5
86.3
1.0
0.7
1.1
0.1
152.1
12.8
34.2
0.6
86.3
1.2
0.8
1.2
0.1
142.1
13.3
31.7
0.8
86.3
1.2
0.9
1.4
0.1
167.5
14.2
1.32
1.32
0.73
10.82
10.82
1.42
1.42
0.78
11.39
11.39
1.56
1.56
0.86
12.01
12.01
1.76
1.76
0.97
12.72
12.72
2014
9
2015
31
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
Strong capacity to improve asset mix in favour of
loans. Sambas loan to asset ratio improved to 57%
32
Financials
We forecast Samba to report earnings of SAR4.8bn
(before zakat) in 2014e, an increase of 7% over
2013, on the back of 7% increases in non-interest
income and net interest income respectively,
generating an ROE of 13.7%. Our earnings estimates
are 2% and 1% above Bloomberg consensus in
2014e and 2015e, respectively.
Aybek Islamov*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East
+ 971 4423 6921
aybek.islamov@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Valuation
We derive our target prices for Saudi banks using
a residual income methodology, using an inflation
differential model to calculate the cost of equity.
The residual income valuation approach calculates
the fair value of the company as the sum of its
current net asset value and the present value of its
future residual income. The residual income is
measured as an excess return over cost of equity.
To calculate the cost of equity by the inflation
differential method, we assume cost of equity as
the sum of the US risk-free rate (3.0%), the
inflation differential between Saudi Arabia and
the US (2.6%) and the equity risk premium
(5.5%) multiplied by the stock beta (1.0 for Saudi
banks we cover). Our estimated cost of equity for
Samba is 11.1%. Under our research model, for
stocks without a volatility indicator, the Neutral
band is 5 percentage points above and below the
hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%. Our target
price of SAR55 implies a potential return of 31%,
which is above the Neutral band of 4%-14% for
non-volatile Saudi stocks; therefore, we rate the
stock Overweight. The stock is currently trading
at 1.4x 2014e book value, for an ROE of 13.7%.
Potential return equals the percentage difference
between the current share price and the target price,
including the forecast dividend yield when indicated.
We do not include dividend yields in our potential
returns for the Saudi banks, since we use a residual
income methodology to value our stocks.
Risks
Key downside risks include:
33
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
4,528
1,600
293
579
7,001
-2,137
-353
0
4,510
0
4,510
0
0
4,510
4,510
4,727
1,813
215
730
7,485
-2,221
-451
0
4,812
0
4,812
0
0
4,812
4,812
5,240
2,011
140
659
8,049
-2,346
-507
0
5,197
0
5,197
0
0
5,197
5,197
6,152
2,231
0
639
9,022
-2,541
-703
0
5,778
0
5,778
0
0
5,778
5,778
33,787
33,787
113,455
60,341
158,337
190,929
205,037
36,623
36,623
125,644
57,092
172,587
203,557
221,107
39,686
39,686
140,616
57,328
189,846
221,364
241,429
43,091
43,091
157,897
56,137
212,627
244,111
267,615
188,295
18.6
18.6
19.4
197,755
18.6
18.6
19.4
215,777
18.5
18.5
19.2
235,954
18.3
18.3
19.0
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Year-on-year % change
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provision profit
EPS
HSBC EPS
DPS
NAV (including goodwill)
4.6
3.6
5.0
4.2
4.2
0.3
10.1
6.9
3.9
8.2
6.7
6.7
6.7
8.4
7.5
5.6
8.4
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.4
12.1
8.3
13.6
11.2
11.2
11.2
8.6
30.5
0.3
71.7
1.7
1.1
1.6
0.2
145.5
14.0
29.7
0.4
72.8
1.7
1.1
1.6
0.1
149.1
13.7
29.1
0.4
74.1
1.7
1.1
1.7
0.1
148.3
13.6
28.2
0.5
74.3
1.7
1.2
1.8
0.1
152.5
14.0
3.76
3.76
1.22
28.16
28.16
4.01
4.01
1.31
30.52
30.52
4.33
4.33
1.41
33.07
33.07
4.82
4.82
1.57
35.91
35.91
34
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.6
0.2
0.3
-1.2
2.7
-0.2
2.5
5.5
12.9
2.4
0.1
0.4
-1.2
2.7
-0.2
2.5
5.5
13.1
2.5
0.1
0.3
-1.1
2.8
-0.2
2.5
5.4
13.1
2.7
0.0
0.3
-1.1
2.9
-0.3
2.6
5.5
13.4
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
11.2
10.4
1.5
5.9
2.9
10.5
9.6
1.4
8.2
3.1
9.7
8.8
1.3
7.8
3.4
8.7
7.8
1.2
8.7
3.7
PE*
Pre-provision multiple
P/NAV
Equity cash flow yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Note: * = Based on HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR)42.00
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
Target price
1090.SE
13,437
51
Saudi Arabia
Aybek Islamov
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
2
(%) 7
.
0
(SAR)55.00
SAMBA AB
49,485
COMMERCIAL BANKS
+9714 423 6921
62
62
57
57
52
52
47
47
42
42
37
37
32
32
27
27
22
2012
2013
Samba Financial Group
Ratios (%)
Cost/income ratio
Bad debt charge
Customer loans/deposits
NPL/loan
NPL/RWA
Provision to risk assets/RWA
Net write-off/RWA
Coverage
ROE (including goodwill)
Year to
Price relative
Overweight
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
22
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
Core revenue growth will struggle to improve.
Aybek Islamov*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East
+ 971 4423 6921
aybek.islamov@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Financials
We forecast Al Rajhi to report earnings of
SAR7.75bn (before zakat) in 2014e, an increase
of 4% over 2013, on the back of 5% increase in
net interest income, generating an ROE of 20.6%.
Our earnings estimates are 1% and 6% below
Bloomberg consensus in 2014e and 2015e,
respectively.
Valuation
We derive our target prices for Saudi banks using
a residual income methodology, using an inflation
differential model to calculate the cost of equity.
The residual income valuation approach calculates
the fair value of the company as the sum of its
35
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risks
Key downside risks include:
36
abc
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
9,606
2,846
0
1,663
14,115
-4,057
-2,619
0
7,438
0
7,438
0
0
7,438
7,438
10,056
2,916
0
1,507
14,480
-4,474
-2,253
0
7,752
0
7,752
0
0
7,752
7,752
10,474
3,095
0
1,553
15,122
-4,804
-2,109
0
8,209
0
8,209
0
0
8,209
8,209
11,341
3,302
0
1,622
16,265
-5,152
-2,051
0
9,062
0
9,062
0
0
9,062
9,062
36,155
36,155
186,813
16,117
231,589
264,634
279,871
39,274
39,274
208,452
16,843
257,064
281,249
306,430
42,586
42,586
228,708
17,618
287,912
308,377
340,801
45,942
45,942
250,527
18,445
322,461
343,460
379,199
207,670
18.5
18.5
19.6
220,577
18.8
18.8
19.8
244,510
18.3
18.3
19.2
282,752
17.0
17.0
17.9
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Year-on-year % change
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provision profit
EPS
HSBC EPS
DPS
NAV (including goodwill)
0.9
7.4
-1.4
-5.7
-5.7
-23.1
10.8
2.6
10.3
-0.5
4.2
4.2
3.4
8.6
4.4
7.4
3.1
5.9
5.9
5.9
8.4
7.6
7.2
7.7
10.4
10.4
10.4
7.9
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
4.8
0.0
0.8
-2.0
5.0
-1.3
3.7
5.9
19.4
4.7
0.0
0.7
-2.1
4.7
-1.1
3.6
5.7
18.7
4.5
0.0
0.7
-2.1
4.4
-0.9
3.5
5.7
18.4
4.3
0.0
0.6
-2.0
4.2
-0.8
3.4
6.0
18.8
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
14.8
10.9
3.0
5.9
3.4
14.2
11.0
2.8
6.2
3.5
13.4
10.7
2.6
5.9
3.7
12.1
9.9
2.4
5.8
4.1
PE*
Pre-provision multiple
P/NAV
Equity cash flow yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Note: * = Based on HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR)67.75
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
Target price
1120.SE
29,354
45
Saudi Arabia
Aybek Islamov
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
2
(%) 7
.
0
(SAR)74.00
RJHI AB
110,094
COMMERCIAL BANKS
+9714 423 6921
78
78
73
73
68
68
63
63
58
58
53
53
48
48
43
43
38
2012
2013
Alrajhi Banking & Investm
Ratios (%)
Cost/income ratio
Bad debt charge
Customer loans/deposits
NPL/loan
NPL/RWA
Provision to risk assets/RWA
Net write-off/RWA
Coverage
ROE (including goodwill)
Year to
Price relative
Neutral
28.7
1.5
80.7
0.0
1.4
2.1
1.3
0.0
21.6
30.9
1.1
81.1
0.0
1.4
2.1
0.9
0.0
20.6
31.8
1.0
79.4
0.0
1.4
2.2
0.6
0.0
20.1
31.7
0.9
77.7
0.0
1.2
2.0
0.6
0.0
20.5
4.58
4.58
2.31
22.25
22.25
4.77
4.77
2.39
24.17
24.17
5.05
5.05
2.53
26.21
26.21
5.58
5.58
2.79
28.27
28.27
2014
38
2015
37
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Alinma
ALINMA AB, Price SAR19.85,
Neutral, TP SAR21.30
Company description
Alinma Bank was founded in 2006 and is
headquartered in Riyadh. As of January 2014, the
banks had a network of 96 branches and 830 ATMs.
As of March 2014 the bank had 4% market share
in loans & 3% in assets in Saudi Arabia.
Investment thesis
Good collateral coverage of loan book. Alinma
38
Financials
We forecast Alinma to report earnings of
SAR1.2bn (before zakat) in 2014e, an increase of
20% over 2013, on the back of 16% and 7%
increases in net-interest income and net interest
income respectively, generating an ROE of 6.9%.
Our earnings estimates are 4% and 12% above
Bloomberg consensus in 2014e and 2015e,
respectively.
Valuation
We derive our target prices for Saudi banks using
a residual income methodology, using an inflation
differential model to calculate the cost of equity.
The residual income valuation approach calculates
the fair value of the company as the sum of its
current net asset value and the present value of its
future residual income. The residual income is
measured as an excess return over cost of equity.
To calculate the cost of equity by the inflation
differential method, we assume cost of equity as
the sum of the US risk-free rate (3.0%), the
inflation differential between Saudi Arabia and
the US (2.6%) and the equity risk premium
(5.5%) multiplied by the stock beta (1.0 for Saudi
banks we cover). Our estimated cost of equity for
Alinma is 11.1%. Under our research model, for
stocks without a volatility indicator, the Neutral
band is 5 percentage points above and below the
hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%. Our target
Aybek Islamov*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East
+ 971 4423 6921
aybek.islamov@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Risks
Key downside risks include:
39
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Neutral
Financial statements
Year to
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
1,835
273
31
141
2,279
-990
-274
-10
1,005
0
1,005
0
0
1,005
1,005
2,132
316
39
120
2,606
-1,098
-303
0
1,205
0
1,205
0
0
1,205
1,205
2,421
371
44
138
2,974
-1,208
-393
0
1,372
0
1,372
0
0
1,372
1,372
2,755
435
49
152
3,390
-1,317
-490
0
1,584
0
1,584
0
0
1,584
1,584
16,832
16,832
44,924
5,399
42,763
55,594
63,001
18,037
18,037
53,734
5,939
53,453
66,134
75,077
19,409
19,409
62,123
6,533
69,489
76,071
92,676
20,993
20,993
71,193
7,187
83,387
87,467
108,358
60,495
0.0
27.8
28.4
75,621
0.0
23.9
24.3
96,785
0.0
20.1
20.4
110,521
0.0
19.0
19.3
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Year-on-year % change
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provision profit
EPS
HSBC EPS
DPS
NAV (including goodwill)
24.8
7.0
43.1
37.0
37.0
14.4
11.0
16.9
19.9
19.9
14.1
10.0
17.1
13.9
13.9
14.0
9.0
17.4
15.4
15.4
1.0
7.2
7.6
8.2
43.4
0.7
105.1
0.7
0.5
0.9
0.0
170.0
6.0
42.1
0.6
100.5
1.1
0.8
1.0
0.0
131.3
6.9
40.6
0.7
89.4
1.4
0.9
1.2
0.0
128.7
7.3
38.8
0.7
85.4
1.7
1.1
1.4
0.0
131.1
7.8
0.68
0.68
0.00
11.33
11.33
0.81
0.81
0.00
12.15
12.15
0.92
0.92
0.00
13.07
13.07
1.07
1.07
0.00
14.14
14.14
40
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
3.3
0.1
0.3
-1.8
2.3
-0.5
1.8
3.3
6.0
3.1
0.1
0.2
-1.6
2.2
-0.4
1.8
3.9
6.7
2.8
0.1
0.2
-1.4
2.0
-0.5
1.6
4.6
7.1
2.7
0.0
0.1
-1.3
2.0
-0.5
1.5
5.1
7.5
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
29.3
22.9
1.8
1.2
0.0
24.5
19.6
1.6
0.5
0.0
21.5
16.7
1.5
-0.4
0.0
18.6
14.2
1.4
2.1
0.0
PE*
Pre-provision multiple
P/NAV
Equity cash flow yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Note: * = Based on HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR)19.85
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
Target price
1150.SE
7,939
70
Saudi Arabia
Aybek Islamov
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
2
(%) 7
.
0
(SAR)21.30
ALINMA AB
29,775
COMMERCIAL BANKS
+9714 423 6921
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
2012
2013
Alinma Bank
Ratios (%)
Cost/income ratio
Bad debt charge
Customer loans/deposits
NPL/loan
NPL/RWA
Provision to risk assets/RWA
Net write-off/RWA
Coverage
ROE (including goodwill)
12/2013a
Price relative
Year to
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
8
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Bank AlBilad
ALBI AB, Not Rated
Company description
Financials
Recent news
The bank reported net income of SAR204mn
for the first quarter of 2014, which is an
increase of 18% q-o-q and 16% y-o-y. The
net interest income increased by 14% q-o-q
and y-o-y. The sequential increase in NII was
driven by both increase in net interest margins
and loan growth. The NII/avg assets increased
by 8 bps q-o-q to 2.59% in Q2'14. The noninterest income was up 10% q-o-q and 8% yo-y. The loan book grew sharply, up 10% qo-q and 32% y-o-y. Whereas, the deposits
increased by 5% q-o-q and 24% y-o-y which
resulted in LDR moving to 80% in Q2'14
compared to 77% in Q1'14 and 76% in Q2'13.
41
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Not Rated
Financial statements
Year to
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
625
342
0
133
1,099
-717
-290
0
92
0
0
92
703
458
0
212
1,374
-792
-252
0
330
0
0
330
840
645
0
253
1,737
-894
-275
373
942
0
0
942
947
666
0
305
1,917
-1,018
-170
0
729
0
0
729
3,103
12,290
382
16,932
20,430
21,117
3,416
13,780
422
23,038
27,020
27,727
4,371
18,256
571
23,742
29,301
29,778
5,101
23,415
976
29,108
35,425
36,323
18,160
16.6
17.4
19,982
15.4
18.3
25,086
13.7
18.5
25,086
13.7
18.5
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
3.4
0.0
0.7
3.9
6.8
0.5
3.5
0.0
1.1
4.0
7.9
1.6
3.3
0.0
1.0
3.6
7.9
3.8
3.8
0.0
1.2
4.1
8.9
2.9
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
156.9
4.7
43.9
4.2
15.4
3.3
19.9
2.8
PE
P/NAV
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Year-on-year % change
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provision profit
EPS
DPS
NAV
20.9
-9.7
232.5
-137.2
0.0
3.4
25.0
10.4
52.4
257.0
0.0
10.1
26.5
12.9
45.0
185.7
0.0
27.9
10.4
13.9
6.5
-22.6
0.0
16.7
65.3
2.0
76.3
5.5
-3.9
89.4
3.0
57.6
1.8
63.7
4.7
-3.4
129.0
10.1
51.4
1.6
81.5
3.9
-3.0
145.4
24.2
53.1
0.8
83.5
1.9
-1.8
194.3
15.4
0.31
0.00
10.34
1.10
0.00
11.39
3.14
0.00
14.57
2.43
0.00
17.00
42
Share price
(SAR)
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
4
(%) .
8
48.30
1140.SE
4,712
51
Saudi Arabia
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
ALBI AB
19,322
Commercial Banks
Price relative
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
2012
10
2013
Bank Albilad
Ratios (%)
Cost/income ratio
Bad debt charge
Customer loans/deposits
NPL/loan
NPL/RWA
Coverage
ROE (including goodwill)
Issuer information
2014
Relative to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Bank AlJazira
BJAZ AB, Not Rated
Company description
Bank Al-Jazira (BAJ) is a Joint Stock Company
incorporated in 1976 with the takeover of The
National Bank of Pakistan's (NBP) branches in the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
BAJ is one of the leading Shari'ah- compliant,
client-driven, service-oriented and fast-growing
financial institutions in Saudi Arabia, providing
individuals, businesses and institutions with
innovative Shari'ah-compliant financial services.
BAJ was the first banking institution in Saudi
Arabia to introduce Takaful Ta'awuni (TT) in 2002
as a full-fledged Shari'ah-compliant alternative
solution for traditional life insurance. Since then, TT
has proved itself as a market leader.
The bank has 2 subsidiaries: 1)AlJazira Capital
Company and 2) Aman Development and Real
Estate Investment Company; these are engaged in
brokerage, asset management, holding &
managing collateral on behalf of the Bank. The
bank also has 35% stake in AlJazira Takaful
Taawuni Company which provides insurance
activities in the sector of protection and saving.
As per latest available data, BAJ had a relatively
small branch network of 62 branches.
Financials
Bank Al-Jazira had 3% market share in total loans
& assets in Saudi Arabia as at March 2014. The
bank is slowly increasing market share in loans &
assets since last few years (market share was 2%
in total loans & assets 2 years back).
The banks capital adequacy ratio was 14.1% at
end of Q1 2014 with a Tier 1 ratio of 11.5%. The
NPL ratio at the end of Q1 2014 was 1.2% down
from 3.3% in Q4 2012. The bank has improved its
coverage ratio to 158% from 134% in last 1 year.
As at 30 June 2014, total assets stood at
SAR60.6bn, customer deposits at SAR48.5bn, and
loans and advances at SAR36.7bn.
Recent news
Bank Al Jazira reported net profit came in at
SAR 167m for Q214 which is up 5% qoq but
flat y-o-y. The net interest income increased
by 11% q-o-q and 18% y-o-y. The sequential
increase in NII was driven by loan growth and
increase in net interest margins. The loan
growth was 6% q-o-q and 17% y-o-y (above
sector average). The non-interest income was
also up at 9% q-o-q and 45% y-o-y. The
deposits increased by 7% q-o-q and 15% y-oy which resulted in LDR going down to 75%
in Q2'14 compared to 76% in Q1'14.
43
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Not Rated
Core profitability (% RWAs) and leverage
Financial statements
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
717
265
28
145
1,155
-764
-362
0
29
0
0
29
781
356
11
59
1,208
-835
-70
0
303
0
0
303
951
564
36
50
1,601
-928
-172
0
501
0
0
500
1,223
468
38
148
1,839
-1,051
-136
0
651
0
0
651
4,806
18,704
27,345
31,438
33,018
4,937
23,307
1,000
31,159
37,414
38,898
5,186
29,897
1,000
40,675
49,243
50,957
5,729
34,995
1,000
48,083
53,542
59,976
29,894
15.1
15.7
34,708
13.6
17.4
41,349
12.1
15.7
46,863
12.2
15.0
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
2.4
0.1
0.5
-2.6
1.3
0.1
2.3
0.0
0.2
-2.4
1.1
0.9
2.3
0.1
0.1
-2.2
1.6
1.2
2.2
0.1
0.1
-2.0
1.6
1.3
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
342.4
2.1
32.7
2.0
19.8
2.0
15.2
1.7
PE
P/NAV
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Year-on-year % change
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provision profit
EPS
DPS
NAV
-1.4
5.3
-12.2
5.0
2.4
4.6
9.2
-4.5
947.5
2.7
32.5
11.1
80.3
65.3
5.0
15.1
13.7
17.1
30.0
14.3
Ratios (%)
Cost/income ratio
Bad debt charge
Customer loans/deposits
NPL/loan
NPL/RWA
Coverage
ROE (including goodwill)
44
Share price
(SAR)
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
66.2
2.1
68.4
6.7
4.5
84.5
0.6
69.1
0.3
74.8
4.2
3.0
117.4
6.2
58.0
0.6
73.5
3.3
2.5
132.4
9.9
57.1
0.4
72.8
1.2
1.8
154.0
12.1
0.10
16.02
1.01
0.53
16.46
1.67
17.29
2.17
19.1
4
(%) .
8
33.00
1020.SE
3,437
74
Saudi Arabia
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
BJAZ AB
13,200
Commercial Banks
Price relative
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
2012
10
2013
Bank Aljazira
Issuer information
2014
Relative to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
Saudi Hollandi Bank had a 5% market share in
total loans & 4% in total assets in Saudi Arabia as
at March 2014. The bank had a above industry
capital adequacy ratio of 18% as at Q1 2014 (up
from 16% in Q3 2012).
As at 30 June 2014, total assets stood at
SAR89.5bn, customer deposits at SAR71bn and
loans and advances at SAR60bn. NPL ratio at the
end of Q1 2014 was 1.3%, with a provision
coverage of 160%. The bank has maintained
stable NPL ratio of 1.4% since start of the year
with a coverage ratio of c160%.
Recent news
In December 2013, the bank privately placed
SAR2.5bn ($667mn) tier 2 sukuk. The sukuk
has a tenor of 10 years carries a half yearly
profit of 6 months SIBOR + 1.55%.
SHB reported net income of SAR 480mn for
the second quarter 2014, increasing 28% yoy
and 15% on a sequential basis. Customer
loans and deposits increased by 18% and
16%, respectively, to reach SAR60.4bn and
SAR71bn.
45
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Not Rated
Core profitability (% RWAs) and leverage
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
1,287
455
31
181
1,954
-772
-389
-3
790
0
0
790
1,290
519
6
191
2,005
-802
-161
-8
1,034
0
-2
1,032
1,372
628
5
215
2,219
-845
-140
19
1,253
0
0
1,253
1,624
732
-1
261
2,616
-895
-218
0
1,502
0
-1
1,502
6,387
35,039
1,500
41,604
50,643
52,864
7,408
37,745
1,500
45,024
54,551
56,940
8,306
45,276
2,900
53,914
59,490
68,506
9,401
53,652
4,625
61,875
74,360
80,468
50,176
12.7
16.3
53,073
13.2
16.6
63,196
12.4
17.6
75,790
11.8
18.3
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
3.1
0.0
0.4
1.6
4.7
0.2
2.6
0.1
0.4
1.5
4.3
1.6
2.4
0.0
0.4
1.5
4.1
1.9
2.2
0.0
0.3
1.3
3.9
2.0
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
20.5
2.5
15.7
2.2
15.5
2.3
12.9
2.1
PE
P/NAV
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
-9.0
-4.9
-11.4
819.8
13.4
2.6
3.9
1.8
30.6
16.0
10.7
5.4
14.2
1.2
-1.8
-6.6
17.9
5.9
25.3
19.8
0.0
13.2
Year-on-year % change
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provision profit
EPS
DPS
NAV
39.5
1.0
84.2
2.6
1.9
124.4
13.2
40.0
0.4
83.8
1.9
1.4
145.4
15.0
38.1
0.3
84.0
1.6
1.1
152.8
15.9
34.2
0.4
86.7
1.3
1.0
161.5
17.0
2.39
0.00
19.31
3.12
1.14
22.40
3.16
1.12
20.93
3.78
1.12
23.69
46
Share price
(SAR)
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
4
(%) .
8
48.90
1040.SE
4,530
50
Saudi Arabia
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
AAAL AB
23,290
Commercial Banks
Price relative
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
2012
20
2013
2014
SHB
Ratios (%)
Cost/income ratio
Bad debt charge
Customer loans/deposits
NPL/loan
NPL/RWA
Coverage
ROE (including goodwill)
Issuer information
Relative to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
Saudi Investment Bank has 4.5% market share in
loans and assets in Saudi Arabia as at March
2014. The bank has an above industry average
capital adequacy ratio 15.6% as at Q1 2014
(although this is down from 18% in Q3 2012).
The tier1 capital ratio is above average at 14.8%
in Q1 2014.
Recent news
Saudi Investment Bank reported net profit
came in at SAR 353m which is up 5% qoq and
10% y-o-y. The net interest income increased
by 5% q-o-q and 8% y-o-y. The sequential
increase in NII was primarily driven by growth
in loan book which was up 5% q-o-q and 36%
y-o-y. However, the pressure on NIM
continued and we estimate NIM to have
declined by 5 bps q-o-q and 45 bps y-o-y to
1.92% in Q2'14. The deposits also grew by 9%
q-o-q and 39% y-o-y which resulted in LDR
moving down to 81% in Q2'14 compared to
84% in Q1'14 and 83% in Q2'13.
In December 2013, Saudi Investment Banks
board of directors recommended to increase
the Bank capital by 9.1% from SAR5.5bn to
SAR6bn by distributing 1 bonus share for
every 11 shares held.
47
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Not Rated
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
1,315
242
123
69
1,749
-559
-738
-12
440
0
-11
429
1,226
311
12
66
1,616
-624
-288
8
712
0
-4
708
1,242
315
21
144
1,722
-632
-255
78
912
0
0
912
1,365
394
158
99
2,017
-762
-105
137
1,287
0
0
1,287
8,103
31,002
500
37,215
48,547
51,491
8,557
27,114
1,500
36,770
48,897
51,946
9,379
34,051
2,000
40,414
56,130
59,067
10,253
47,567
2,000
57,044
77,144
80,495
44,888
17.2
17.3
42,506
19.0
19.1
51,027
17.4
17.6
70,716
14.5
15.1
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
2.9
0.3
0.2
1.2
4.1
1.0
2.9
0.0
0.2
1.5
4.0
1.7
2.4
0.0
0.3
1.2
3.7
1.8
1.9
0.2
0.1
1.1
3.0
1.8
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
34.3
1.9
21.2
1.8
16.5
1.6
11.7
1.5
Valuation data
Year to
PE
P/NAV
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
15.3
3.7
21.7
-33.2
0.0
-10.3
-7.6
11.6
-16.7
61.8
0.0
5.6
6.5
1.3
9.9
28.1
40.0
9.6
17.1
20.5
15.2
41.1
0.0
9.3
Year-on-year % change
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provision profit
EPS
DPS
NAV
32.0
2.3
83.3
5.4
4.0
110.4
5.5
38.6
0.9
73.7
6.1
4.2
124.6
8.5
36.7
0.8
84.3
1.3
0.9
181.3
10.2
37.8
0.3
83.4
0.8
0.6
178.2
13.1
0.80
0.00
14.73
1.29
0.50
15.56
1.66
0.70
17.05
2.34
0.70
18.64
48
Share price
(SAR)
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
4
(%) .
8
27.40
1030.SE
4,268
37
Saudi Arabia
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
SIBC AB
16,440
Commercial Banks
Price relative
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
2012
10
2013
2014
SIB
Ratios (%)
Cost/income ratio
Bad debt charge
Customer loans/deposits
NPL/loan
NPL/RWA
Coverage
ROE (including goodwill)
Issuer information
Relative to Tadawul
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
49
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
fuel growth
Future growth is towards downstream chemicals, integrated
12%
10%
8%
6%
Others
1%
UAE
8%
Kuw ait
6%
Qatar
10%
Iran
16%
4%
2%
0%
1990
1995
50
2000
2005
2010
Source: IHS Chemical, HSBC
Saudi
Arabia
59%
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
16
140
14
120
12
100
10
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-90
0
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Brent ($/bbl)
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
51
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
7%
10%
6%
7%
2%
3%
5%
8%
16%
18%
19%
12%
19%
7%
12%
9%
11%
20%
41%
29%
45%
42%
16%
24%
23%
23%
20%
52
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
600
60%
500
45%
400
30%
300
200
15%
100
0%
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13
Source: IHS Chemical, HSBC
Q1'11
Q1'13
Q3'13
Q1'14
Saudi Ethane
(mn tons)
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q1'12
Q3'12
Q1'13
Westake Olefins
LyondellBasell - O&P Americas
Yansab
Source: Company reports
Q3'12
US Ethane
50%
Q3'11
Q1'12
Q1'11
Q3'11
Q3'13
60%
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990 1995 2000
Naphtha based
Naphtha as a % of total
2005
2010 2015e
Total
53
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
54
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
M&A, consolidation
The Middle Eastern chemical names are the most
likely to participate in M&A and consolidation
moves to boost growth, in our view, as growth
options are limited on account of lack of
additional feedstock availability.
Sponsors
Cost
Location
Commercialisation timeline
USD 7bn
USD 1.2bn
USD 12bn
USD 2.0bn
USD 20bn
USD 3.4bn
2016
2011
2011/12
2014
2015/16
2015
55
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
56
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Advanced Petrochemical
APPC AB, SAR49, N(V), TP SAR45
Company description
APC (formerly Advanced Polypropylene Company)
was incorporated in Saudi Arabia in 2005 to
develop an integrated polypropylene complex in Al
Jubail. The company went public in January 2007,
and the project started commercial operations in
August 2008 and the plant was formally
commissioned in November 2008.
APC is essentially a single-plant, single-product
company. It was initially set up with a
polypropylene capacity of 450ktpa, which was
further increased to 500ktpa in Q310 via a
debottlenecking project. The company uses
propane feedstock, supplied by Saudi Aramco, to
produce propylene, which is then converted into
polypropylene and sold under long-term volume
offtake agreements. It is the only company in our
MENA chems coverage with feedstock pricing
completely linked to crude oil prices, and as a
result its earnings have a high degree of
correlation on the PP-Naphtha spread.
Investment thesis
APC has announced three projects over the course of
the last 2 years : 1) an MoU with Bayegan to set up a
USD1bn PP plant in Turkey, which was announced
in May 2012 but subsequently cancelled in January
2013; 2) an agreement with Saudi Aramco Total
Refining and Petrochemical Company (SATROP)
for the supply of 50ktpa propylene, which was later
increased to 80ktpa, with a Q1 2014 start-up
timeline; 3) an MoU with Vinmar Projects to explore
and evaluate growth opportunities in the US, signed
57
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
220
300
200
800
250
180
700
200
160
140
120
150
600
100
500
50
100
400
80
Jul-12
Jan-13
APC
Jul-13
Tadawul All Share
Jan-14
Jul-14
Tadawul Petro
-50
Q2 08
Q2 09
Q2 10
Q2 11
EBITDA
Q2 12
Q2 13
PP - Naphtha (RHS)
Valuation vs peers
Risks
Valuation
We use DCF to value APC. Our cost of equity is
10.8% and includes a risk-free rate of 3.5%, a market
risk premium of 6% and a beta of 1.22. We use a 4%
cost of debt assumption and a 30% debt weighting,
which yields a WACC estimate of 8.7%. This yields
a DCF valuation for APC of SAR45 per share which
is our target price for the stock.
Under our research model, for stocks with a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 10ppts
above and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of
9%. At the time we set our target price, it implied a
potential return that was within the Neutral band;
therefore, we rate the stock Neutral (V). Potential
return equals the percentage difference between the
current share price and the target price, including
the forecast dividend yield when indicated.
58
300
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2,786
773
-208
566
-15
557
557
0
557
557
2,996
738
-208
530
-12
521
521
-8
513
513
2,962
730
-207
524
-9
517
517
-8
510
510
2,831
689
-208
481
-6
478
478
-7
471
471
Year to
744
-110
-111
-328
-314
645
692
-128
-128
-407
-174
578
705
-133
-133
-407
-179
583
680
-139
-139
-380
-171
548
87
2,163
974
544
3,225
359
580
36
2,254
2,320
87
2,082
1,061
593
3,232
385
455
-138
2,360
2,252
87
2,009
1,097
634
3,194
383
317
-317
2,463
2,176
87
1,940
1,097
653
3,125
375
165
-488
2,553
2,095
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.9
10.5
3.5
14.5
3.6
8.0
4.6
2.7
10.8
3.5
15.8
3.4
7.1
5.0
2.6
10.7
3.6
15.9
3.3
7.2
5.0
2.7
11.0
3.6
17.2
3.2
6.8
4.7
Target price
(SAR)45.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral (V)
(SAR)49.40
Reuters (Equity)
2330.SE
Market cap (USDm)
2,160
Free float (%)
47
Country
Saudi Arabia
Analyst
Sriharsha Pappu
53
53
48
48
43
43
38
38
33
33
28
28
23
23
18
2012
2013
Advanced Petro Chemical C
12/2013a
2014
18
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
APPC AB
Market cap (SARm)
8,101
Enterprise value (SARm)
7961
Sector
Chemicals
Contact
971 4 4236924
Price relative
8
.
9
12.7
42.2
63.3
69.7
69.7
7.5
-4.6
-6.4
-6.5
-7.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-0.6
-0.6
-4.4
-5.7
-8.2
-7.7
-7.7
1.2
23.9
25.9
17.6
27.8
20.3
52.5
1.6
0.0
2061.2
1.3
22.8
22.2
16.2
24.6
17.7
63.6
-5.8
-0.2
1.3
23.3
21.1
16.1
24.7
17.7
80.2
-12.9
-0.4
1.3
22.2
18.8
15.1
24.3
17.0
108.8
-19.1
-0.7
3.40
3.40
2.25
13.74
3.13
3.13
2.48
14.39
3.11
3.11
2.48
15.02
2.87
2.87
2.32
15.57
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
59
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Methanol Chemicals Co
(Chemanol)
CHEMANOL AB, SAR16.50, N(V), TP
SAR16
Company description
Methanol Chemical Company (Chemanol),
established in 1989 and initially known as Saudi
Formaldehyde Chemical Company, started
commercial operations in 1991 with production
capacity of 24ktpa of formaldehyde. Over the next
decade the company added capacity for
formaldehyde as well as other methanol
derivatives such as super plasticizers in small
increments, moving to a total sales volume of over
300ktpa by 2006.
In 2006 the company changed its name to Methanol
Chemical Company and embarked on a methanol
integration and expansion project after securing gas
feedstock from the Saudi Government. The plan
was to source methanol internally (rather than
purchasing it from SABIC at market linked prices)
Chemanol quarterly earnings (SARm)
Investment thesis
Still awaiting earnings recovery
180
60
50
160
40
140
30
120
20
100
10
80
0
-10
Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14
-20
Net Income
Source: Company reports, HSBC estimates
60
Historical
Rebased
60
Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
Chemanol
Tadawul All Share
Tadawul Petro
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risk
Key upside/downside risks include:
Valuation
Our preferred methodology for valuing
commodity chemical companies is DCF. In our
DCF valuation we model cash flows and EBITDA
explicitly up to 2017, after which we build in
semi-explicit cash flow forecasts running off a
sales growth assumption and a profitability metric
through to 2020. Thereafter, we move to a
terminal valuation phase.
We use DCF to value Chemanol. Our cost of
equity for Chemanol is 10% and includes a riskfree rate of 3.5%, a market risk premium of 6%
and a beta of 1.08. We use a 4% cost of debt
assumption and a 30% debt weighting, which
yields a WACC estimate of 8.1%. This yields a
DCF valuation of SAR16 per share, which is our
target price.
Under our research model, for stocks with a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 10 ppts
above and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks
of 9%.
At the time we set our target price, it implied a
potential return that was within the Neutral band;
therefore, we rate the stock Neutral (V). Potential
return equals the percentage difference between the
current share price and the target price, including
the forecast dividend yield when indicated.
61
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
874
279
-162
117
-37
78
78
-6
72
72
895
345
-167
177
-34
142
142
-7
135
135
851
328
-168
160
-28
130
130
-7
124
124
823
321
-172
148
-22
125
125
-6
119
119
Year to
252
-71
-77
-60
-115
179
301
-77
-77
-66
-159
227
308
-79
-79
-60
-169
231
301
-81
-81
-60
-161
223
18
2,260
489
79
2,793
143
1,066
988
1,583
2,546
18
2,169
489
83
2,702
139
912
829
1,652
2,455
18
2,079
486
97
2,609
136
757
660
1,715
2,350
18
1,988
479
103
2,511
135
603
500
1,773
2,248
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
3.4
10.6
1.2
27.6
1.3
9.1
3.6
3.1
8.1
1.1
14.8
1.2
11.5
3.3
3.1
8.0
1.1
16.1
1.2
11.8
3.0
3.0
7.7
1.1
16.8
1.1
11.3
3.0
Target price
(SAR)16.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral (V)
(SAR)16.50
Reuters (Equity)
2001.SE
Market cap (USDm)
531
Free float (%)
60
Country
Saudi Arabia
Analyst
Sriharsha Pappu
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
2012
2013
Methanol Chemicals Co.
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
-5.1
-6.8
-14.1
-19.3
-21.1
2.4
23.7
52.0
82.1
86.5
-4.9
-4.7
-9.6
-7.9
-7.9
-3.3
-2.4
-7.4
-4.3
-4.3
0.3
4.2
4.6
3.7
31.9
13.4
7.6
62.4
3.5
25.5
0.4
6.7
8.3
6.1
38.5
19.8
10.2
50.2
2.4
36.4
0.4
6.3
7.4
5.7
38.6
18.8
11.8
38.5
2.0
46.6
0.4
6.1
6.8
5.4
38.9
18.0
14.9
28.2
1.6
60.3
0.60
0.60
0.60
13.13
1.12
1.12
0.55
13.69
1.03
1.03
0.50
14.22
0.98
0.98
0.50
14.70
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
62
Bloomberg (Equity)
CHEMANOL AB
Market cap (SARm)
1,990
Enterprise value (SARm)
2794
Sector
CHEMICALS
Contact
971 4 4236924
Price relative
3
.
0
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
8
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
10
800
600
fundamentals
1,000
12
200
Investment thesis
1,200
400
20
10.6
8.5
7
4
2
0
Peak adjusted
Trough
Mid cycle
T12m
63
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
SABIC reported Q2 net income of SAR6.45bn
broadly flat q-o-q and up 7% y-o-y. The Q2
earnings imply an annualized eps run rate of SAR
8.6 per share, c19% below our mid-cycle earnings
estimate of SAR10.6 for the company.
Valuation
Our preferred methodology for valuing
commodity chemical companies is DCF. In our
DCF valuation we model cash flows and EBITDA
explicitly up to 2017, after which we build in
semi-explicit cash flow forecasts running off a
sales growth assumption and a profitability metric
through to 2020. Thereafter, we move to a
terminal valuation phase.
Our cost of equity for SABIC is 12.3% and
includes a risk free rate of 3.5%, a market risk
premium of 6% and a beta of 1.47. We use a cost
of debt of 4% and a 30% debt weighting to get to
our WACC estimate of 9.8%. Our DCF valuation
gives a target price of SAR130.
64
Risks
Key downside risks include:
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
189,038
56,622
-14,031
42,591
-769
42,391
42,391
-2,300
25,228
25,228
203,993
63,898
-14,370
49,528
-545
50,182
50,182
-2,258
31,615
31,615
203,333
63,611
-14,768
48,842
-119
50,323
50,323
-2,265
31,955
31,955
200,779
62,625
-15,176
47,449
254
49,203
49,203
-2,214
31,244
31,244
59,997
-11,650
-18,039
-12,738
-16,001
44,888
62,197
-11,951
-11,951
-15,000
-18,937
49,047
62,979
-12,417
-12,417
-15,000
-19,459
48,963
62,693
-12,901
-12,901
-15,000
-19,047
48,292
22,197
165,874
144,025
75,189
345,588
52,526
69,864
-5,324
172,836
204,381
22,197
163,522
149,242
80,648
348,453
52,436
55,864
-24,784
189,791
201,878
22,197
161,247
151,025
83,195
347,961
52,199
39,364
-43,831
206,035
199,074
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.5
8.3
2.3
14.7
2.4
9.8
4.0
2.2
7.1
2.2
11.7
2.1
10.7
4.0
2.1
6.8
2.1
11.6
2.0
10.7
4.0
2.1
6.6
2.1
11.9
1.8
10.6
4.0
Target price
(SAR)130.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Overweight
(SAR)123.50
Reuters (Equity)
2010.SE
Market cap (USDm)
98,784
Free float (%)
30
Country
Saudi Arabia
Analyst
Sriharsha Pappu
129
129
119
119
109
109
99
99
89
89
79
79
69
2012
2013
Saudi Basic Industries Co
12/2013a
2014
69
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
SABIC AB
Market cap (SARm)
370,500
Enterprise value (SARm)
452408
Sector
CHEMICALS
Contact
971 4 4236924
Price relative
22,197
168,294
135,028
68,251
339,011
50,563
81,864
13,613
156,221
206,704
5
.
3
0.0
4.2
4.0
3.8
1.8
7.9
12.8
16.3
18.4
25.3
-0.3
-0.4
-1.4
0.3
1.1
-1.3
-1.6
-2.9
-2.2
-2.2
0.9
19.1
16.7
12.3
30.0
22.5
73.6
6.6
0.2
440.7
1.0
23.0
19.2
14.5
31.3
24.3
117.2
-2.4
-0.1
1.0
23.0
17.6
14.2
31.3
24.0
534.2
-10.3
-0.4
1.0
22.6
15.8
13.8
31.2
23.6
-17.1
-0.7
8.41
8.41
5.00
52.07
10.54
10.54
5.00
57.61
10.65
10.65
5.00
63.26
10.41
10.41
5.00
68.68
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
65
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
National Industrializatio
(Tasnee (NIC))
NIC AB, SAR35.60, N, TP SAR35
Company description
Investment thesis
12%
2,500
60%
10%
2,000
1,500
1,000
8%
40%
6%
20%
4%
500
2%
0%
0
2010
2011
2012
Net Income
66
2013
2014e
Margins (RHS)
0%
-20%
3m
Tasnee
6m
1 yr
2 yr
3 yr
Tadawul Petro
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
40%
4,000
35%
30%
3,000
25%
20%
15%
2,000
10%
5%
0%
Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14
Industrial
Petrochemical
1,000
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
TiO2 - Rutile *1.07
Financials
We expect Tasnees earnings to increase by 87% yo-y in 2014, compared to a 37% y-o-y decline in
2013. The stock is trading a 2014e PE of 11.5x on
our ahead of consensus estimates, at a premium to its
historical 12-m forward P/E multiple.
Valuation
We use a DCF to value Tasnee. Our cost of equity
is 11% and includes a risk-free rate of 3.5%, a
market risk premium of 6.0% and a beta of 1.25.
We use a 5% cost-of-debt assumption and a 30%
debt weighting. We use a 10% marginal tax rate
for the forecast period the Cristal business is
spread across various geographies and, thus, pays
a higher effective tax rate than the Saudi domestic
businesses which results in a WACC of 9.1%.
This yields a DCF value of SAR35 per share,
which is our target price.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5pp above
and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%. At
the time we set our target price, it implied a
potential return that was within the Neutral band;
therefore, we rate the stock Neutral. Potential return
equals the percentage difference between the current
share price and the target price, including the
forecast dividend yield when indicated.
67
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risks
Key upside risks include:
68
abc
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
18,201
4,428
-1,359
3,069
-606
2,399
2,399
-122
1,104
1,104
20,338
6,271
-1,561
4,710
-559
4,380
4,380
-438
2,069
2,069
21,117
6,441
-1,749
4,692
-643
4,279
4,279
-471
2,044
2,044
20,890
6,407
-1,749
4,658
-522
4,366
4,366
-480
2,133
2,133
3,269
-3,045
-3,276
-1,140
2,892
-1,053
5,296
-2,166
-2,166
-1,138
-1,991
2,899
5,208
-1,433
-1,433
-1,022
-2,752
3,544
5,742
-1,059
-1,059
-1,066
-3,616
4,453
3,666
25,690
11,943
987
43,691
5,533
15,611
14,623
12,925
34,779
3,666
25,375
12,826
1,456
44,259
5,599
13,327
11,871
13,947
34,813
3,666
24,685
14,030
2,788
44,773
5,578
11,042
8,255
15,013
34,016
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.8
11.4
1.5
21.6
2.0
-3.1
4.2
2.5
8.1
1.5
11.5
1.8
8.0
4.8
2.4
7.9
1.5
11.7
1.7
9.1
4.3
2.4
7.7
1.5
11.2
1.6
10.8
4.5
Target price
(SAR)35.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)35.60
Reuters (Equity)
2060.SE
Market cap (USDm)
6,349
Free float (%)
80
Country
Saudi Arabia
Analyst
Sriharsha Pappu
47
47
42
42
37
37
32
32
27
27
22
22
17
2012
2013
National Industrializatio
12/2013a
2014
17
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
NIC AB
Market cap (SARm)
23,813
Enterprise value (SARm)
50927
Sector
CHEMICALS
Contact
971 4 4236924
Price relative
3,666
25,086
15,989
5,179
47,133
5,596
21,793
16,614
11,993
33,966
1
.
7
1.7
-19.1
-25.1
-32.7
-37.4
11.7
41.6
53.4
82.6
87.4
3.8
2.7
-0.4
-2.3
-1.2
-1.1
-0.5
-0.7
2.0
4.3
0.6
8.9
9.2
6.2
24.3
16.9
7.3
84.9
3.8
19.7
0.6
12.3
16.6
9.8
30.8
23.2
11.2
65.3
2.3
36.2
0.6
12.0
15.2
10.0
30.5
22.2
10.0
47.2
1.8
43.9
0.6
12.0
14.7
9.8
30.7
22.3
12.3
29.5
1.3
69.6
1.65
1.65
1.50
17.93
3.09
3.09
1.70
19.32
3.06
3.06
1.53
20.85
3.19
3.19
1.59
22.44
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
69
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Saudi Industrial
Investment (SIIG)
SIIG AB, SAR37.4, OW(V), TP
SAR41
Company description
SIIG was one of the earliest privately held
petrochemical companies to be established in
Saudi Arabia, incorporated in 1996, and has been
publicly listed since 2004.
SIIG is essentially a combination of three
separate, but integrated petrochemical projects.
Saudi Chevron Phillips (SCP): A 50:50 JV
with Chevron Phillips Chemicals. SCP was
SIIGs first project and started operation in
2000. The plant produces motor gasoline
(789ktpa), benzene (835ktpa) and
cyclohexane (290ktpa).
Jubail Chevron Phillips (JCP): Another 50:50
JV with Chevron Phillips, JCP started
commercial operations in July 2009. The
plant is integrated into benzene from SCP and
produces styrene (550ktpa) along with
propylene (150ktpa).
Saudi Polymers Company (SPC): SIIG owns
a 32.5% stake in SPC via its 50% stake in
Petrochem. SPC is owned by a JV between
Petrochem and Chevron Phillips. The SPC
project is based around a 1.1mtpa ethylene
cracker and is integrated into styrene from the
JCP project, which will be used to produce
polystyrene (200ktpa). Its other major
products include HDPE (550ktpa), LDPE
(550ktpa) and PP (400ktpa).
70
Investment thesis
2014 to be better for Saudi Polymers
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Financials
We expect SIIGs net income to roughly double in
2014, driven primarily by a positive contribution
from the Saudi Polymers unit.
Valuation
We use a sum-of-the-parts to value SIIG. We use
a 2014e PE multiple of 11x to value the exPetrochem (National Petrochemical Co.)
businesses, while to value the companys 50%
stake in Petrochem, we use our Petrochem target
price of SAR28. This yields a sum-of-the-parts
valuation for SIIG of SAR41 per share, which is
our target price for the stock.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5ppts
above and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks
of 9%. At the time we set our target price, it
implied a potential return that was outside the
Neutral band; therefore, we rate the stock
Overweight. Potential return equals the
percentage difference between the current share
price and the target price, including the forecast
dividend yield when indicated.
Risks
Key downside risks include:
71
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
4,437
941
-787
154
-203
774
774
-103
714
714
8,027
2,888
-813
2,076
-231
2,893
2,893
-74
1,622
1,622
8,180
2,922
-884
2,039
-302
2,747
2,747
-70
1,549
1,549
8,921
3,229
-926
2,303
-322
2,897
2,897
-80
1,531
1,531
Year to
22
-1
556
-450
88
71
2,607
-290
229
-675
-2,172
2,318
2,520
-491
4
-675
-1,879
2,039
2,710
-503
-55
-675
-2,018
2,225
0
21,603
3,383
1,510
25,374
901
14,625
13,115
6,332
22,576
0
21,600
4,056
2,156
26,044
952
13,100
10,943
7,279
22,548
0
21,702
5,046
3,110
27,136
968
12,174
9,065
8,153
22,671
0
21,727
6,293
4,202
28,408
1,025
11,249
7,047
9,009
22,795
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
7.5
35.2
1.5
23.6
2.7
0.4
2.7
4.0
11.1
1.4
10.4
2.3
10.9
4.0
3.8
10.8
1.4
10.9
2.1
9.1
4.0
3.4
9.5
1.3
11.0
1.9
9.4
4.0
Target price
(SAR)41.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Overweight
(SAR)37.40
Reuters (Equity)
2250.SE
Market cap (USDm)
4,487
Free float (%)
80
Country
Saudi Arabia
Analyst
Sriharsha Pappu
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
2012
2013
Saudi Industrial Investme
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
417.2
318.2
30.7
80.9
206.8
1244.3
273.8
127.2
1.9
1.2
-1.8
-5.1
-4.5
9.0
10.5
13.0
5.5
-1.2
0.2
0.6
11.4
3.4
21.2
3.5
4.6
133.5
13.9
0.2
0.4
9.0
23.8
11.9
36.0
25.9
12.5
91.4
3.8
23.8
0.4
8.8
20.1
11.3
35.7
24.9
9.7
64.9
3.1
27.8
0.4
9.9
17.8
11.4
36.2
25.8
10.0
43.7
2.2
38.4
1.59
1.59
1.00
14.07
3.60
3.60
1.50
16.18
3.44
3.44
1.50
18.12
3.40
3.40
1.50
20.02
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
72
Bloomberg (Equity)
SIIG AB
Market cap (SARm)
16,830
Enterprise value (SARm)
32195
Sector
CHEMICALS
Contact
971 4 4236924
Price relative
9
.
6
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
15
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
National Petrochemical
Company (Petrochem)
PETROCH AB, SAR37.4, N(V), TP
SAR28
Company description
Petrochem was established in April 2008 and
went public in August 2009 in an issue worth
SAR2.4bn. Petrochems sole asset is the Saudi
Polymers project, which is a JV between
Petrochem (65%) and Chevron Phillips (35%).
Saudi Polymers consists of a world scale cracker
(1.17mt ethylene + 0.45mt propylene), with
corresponding downstream units that include
HDPE (550ktpa), LDPE (550ktpa), PP (400ktpa),
Polystyrene (200 ktpa). Its feedstock mix consists
of Ethane (40%) and Propane (60%). The plant
was constructed at a total cost of SAR19.5bn and
started commercial operations in October 2012.
Saudi Industrial Investment (SIIG) is the largest
shareholder in Petrochem with a 50% stake.
Investment thesis
Prefer SIIG on a risk-adjusted basis
250
250
220
200
0
(100)
(200)
(300)
50
100
70
Aug-09
100
100
130
(400)
(500)
0
Aug-10
Aug-11
Petrochem
Aug-12
Aug-13
SIIG
300
200
150
160
280
190
Q1 12
Q3 12
Q1 13
SIIG
Q3 13
Q1 14
Petrochem (RHS)
73
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
Petrochems Q214 net income was up 40% q-o-q,
compared to +89% increase in Q1, with the stock
trading at 21x based on annualized Q2 earnings.
Valuation
We use a DCF to value Petrochem. Our cost of
equity for Petrochem is 10.6% and includes a riskfree rate of 3.5%, a market risk premium of 6%
and a beta of 1.19. We use a 4% cost of debt
assumption and a 30% debt weighting, which
yields a WACC estimate of 8.6%. This yields a
DCF valuation of SAR28 per share, which is our
target price.
Under our research model, for stocks with a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 10pp
above and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks
of 9%. Although the stock is not volatile
according to the HSBC model (over 40% average
30-day vol), we keep the volatility (V) flag to
reflect the start-up risks inherent in the Saudi
Polymers project, which is Petrochems only
asset. At the time we set our target price, it
implied a potential return that was within the
Neutral band; therefore, we rate the stock Neutral
(V). Potential return equals the percentage
difference between the current share price and the
target price, including the forecast dividend yield
when indicated
Risks
Key upside/downside risks include:
74
abc
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
4,437
952
-787
165
-203
-38
-38
-38
-66
-66
8,027
2,888
-813
2,076
-231
1,845
1,845
-46
1,153
1,153
8,180
2,922
-884
2,039
-302
1,736
1,736
-43
1,085
1,085
8,921
3,229
-926
2,303
-322
1,981
1,981
-50
1,238
1,238
Year to
-38
0
0
0
-102
-46
2,536
-290
-290
-288
-1,952
2,245
2,553
-491
-491
-543
-1,520
2,063
2,753
-503
-503
-619
-1,630
2,249
0
18,369
2,520
673
21,006
804
14,625
13,952
4,121
19,413
0
17,847
3,323
1,330
21,291
873
13,331
12,001
4,985
18,966
0
17,454
3,373
1,341
20,948
889
11,822
10,481
5,528
18,596
0
17,031
3,655
1,462
20,808
946
10,312
8,850
6,147
18,278
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
7.5
35.0
1.7
4.0
11.2
1.7
14.3
3.3
11.0
1.7
3.9
10.8
1.7
15.2
3.0
9.8
3.3
3.4
9.5
1.7
13.3
2.7
10.3
3.7
Target price
(SAR)28.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
4.0
-0.2
0.0
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral (V)
(SAR)34.40
Reuters (Equity)
2002.SE
Market cap (USDm)
4,402
Free float (%)
17
Country
Saudi Arabia
Analyst
Sriharsha Pappu
39
39
34
34
29
29
24
24
19
19
14
2012
2013
National Petrochemical Co
12/2013a
2014
14
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
3569689Z AB
Market cap (SARm)
16,512
Enterprise value (SARm)
32464
Sector
CHEMICALS
Contact
971 4 4236924
Price relative
1
8
.
6
417.2
80.9
203.3
1154.7
1.9
1.2
-1.8
-5.9
-5.9
9.0
10.5
13.0
14.1
14.1
0.2
1.7
-1.6
1.6
21.5
3.7
4.7
251.2
14.7
0.4
10.5
25.3
9.6
36.0
25.9
12.5
169.9
4.2
21.1
0.4
10.6
20.6
9.5
35.7
24.9
9.7
127.6
3.6
24.4
0.5
12.2
21.2
10.9
36.2
25.8
10.0
92.9
2.7
31.1
-0.14
-0.14
0.00
8.59
2.40
2.40
0.60
10.39
2.26
2.26
1.13
11.52
2.58
2.58
1.29
12.81
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
75
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Yansab
YANSAB AB, N, TP SAR77
Company description
Yansab is essentially a single project company,
with a world scale cracker with 1.3mt ethylene
capacity, and corresponding downstream units. Its
main products include MEG (700ktpa), PP
(400ktpa), HDPE (400ktpa), and LLDPE
(400ktpa). Its feedstock mix consists of ethane
(35%) and propane (65%).
Yansab was set up in 2005 and had its IPO in
January 2006. The company started commercial
operations in Q1 2010. SABIC is the majority
shareholder with a 51% stake.
Investment thesis
Dividend growth to continue but upside priced in
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Jul-13Jan-14Jul-14
Yansab
Tadawul Petro
Tadawul All Share
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC
76
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Median
Jun-14
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation
Risks
77
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
9,354
4,073
-1,080
2,993
-260
2,762
2,762
-118
2,645
2,645
9,711
4,435
-1,006
3,429
-157
3,302
3,302
-141
3,161
3,161
9,723
4,335
-1,016
3,318
-75
3,273
3,273
-139
3,134
3,134
9,522
4,186
-992
3,194
-25
3,199
3,199
-136
3,063
3,063
3,620
-106
-204
-561
-2,879
3,655
4,052
-194
-194
-2,250
-1,609
3,829
4,127
-293
-293
-2,821
-1,013
3,803
4,115
-397
-397
-2,910
-808
3,688
305
15,001
7,280
3,321
22,586
1,119
5,512
2,191
15,955
18,146
305
14,278
6,972
2,958
21,555
1,151
4,136
1,178
16,268
17,447
305
13,683
6,341
2,390
20,329
1,148
2,760
370
16,421
16,791
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
4.6
10.6
2.3
14.9
2.6
9.3
4.3
4.3
9.4
2.3
12.5
2.5
9.7
5.7
4.2
9.4
2.3
12.6
2.4
9.7
7.2
4.2
9.5
2.4
12.9
2.4
9.4
7.4
Target price
(SAR)77.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)70.02
Reuters (Equity)
2290.SE
Market cap (USDm)
10,501
Free float (%)
40
Country
Saudi Arabia
Analyst
Sriharsha Pappu
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
2012
2013
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
0.6
4.6
4.1
8.5
8.1
3.8
8.9
14.6
19.5
19.5
0.1
-2.3
-3.2
-0.9
-0.9
-2.1
-3.4
-3.8
-2.3
-2.3
0.5
14.9
18.9
12.8
43.5
32.0
15.7
25.3
0.9
95.3
0.5
17.8
20.4
14.6
45.7
35.3
28.2
13.7
0.5
184.9
0.5
17.9
19.5
14.5
44.6
34.1
57.7
7.2
0.3
350.2
0.6
17.9
18.7
14.7
44.0
33.5
170.8
2.3
0.1
1112.3
4.70
4.70
3.00
26.74
5.62
5.62
4.00
28.36
5.57
5.57
5.01
28.92
5.45
5.45
5.17
29.19
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
78
Bloomberg (Equity)
YANSAB AB
Market cap (SARm)
39,386
Enterprise value (SARm)
41577
Sector
CHEMICALS
Contact
971 4 4236924
Price relative
305
15,814
6,782
3,021
22,901
1,036
6,821
3,800
15,043
18,843
Yanbu Petrochemical
Year to
1
0
.
0
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Kayan
KAYAN AB, N, TP SAR16
Company description
The Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company was set
up in 2005 with PMD, a private Saudi company,
as the original project sponsor. SABIC replaced
PMD in 2006 and the company held an IPO in
May 2007. SABIC is the majority shareholder of
the company with a 35% stake.
Kayan is the largest project built by SABIC. The
base complex is a world scale cracker with a
nameplate ethylene capacity of 1.3mt, integrated
along the olefins and benzene chains. Its main
prodcuts include: MEG (530ktpa), HDPE
(400ktpa), LDPE (350ktpa), PP (350ktpa),
Polycarbonate (260 ktpa). Kayans feedstock slate
consists of Ethane (35%) and Butane (65%).
The company announced in July 2010, that the
total cost of the integrated complex had exceeded
the initial estimates of SAR37.5bn by SAR9bn.
1,000
Investment thesis
Feedstock slate, depreciation and operating
50%
800
40%
600
(100)
30%
400
(200)
20%
200
(300)
10%
(400)
0%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14
EBITDA
Net Income (RHS)
Source: Company reports, HSBC estimates
100
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14
Yansab
Kayan
79
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
Kayan reported a net loss of SAR133m in Q2
compared to an average net income of SAR20m
over the previous 3 quarters on account of higher
SG&A, feedstock costs and an inventory
revaluation, despite higher product prices and
volumes, confirming our view that the overhang
from heavy feedstock slate and high cost of
construction remains.
Valuation
We use DCF to value Kayan. Our cost of equity
for Kayan is 10.6% and includes a risk-free rate of
3.5%, a market risk premium of 6% and a beta of
1.19. We use a 6% cost of debt assumption and a
60% debt weighting, which yields a WACC
estimate of 7.7%.This yields a DCF value of
SAR16 per share, which is our target price.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5pp above
and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%.
Our target price implies a potential return of 6%,
within the Neutral band, therefore, we rate the
stock as Neutral. Potential return equals the
percentage difference between the current share
price and the target price, including the forecast
dividend yield when indicated.
80
Risks
Key upside risks include:
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
10,353
2,526
-2,291
235
-483
-256
-256
-90
-346
-346
11,715
4,484
-2,325
2,159
-466
1,703
1,703
-68
1,635
1,635
12,014
4,515
-2,325
2,190
-411
1,789
1,789
-72
1,717
1,717
12,373
4,854
-2,325
2,529
-411
2,127
2,127
-85
2,042
2,042
1,372
-729
-1,375
0
-28
640
4,283
-212
-212
0
-4,071
4,061
3,922
-439
-439
0
-3,482
3,472
4,130
-887
-887
-630
-2,612
3,232
0
37,096
8,270
2,603
45,365
2,652
27,615
25,012
15,728
40,110
0
35,210
9,775
3,939
44,985
2,701
25,469
21,530
17,446
38,345
0
33,772
10,453
4,378
44,225
2,702
23,295
18,918
18,858
37,145
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
5.0
20.5
1.2
4.1
10.6
1.2
13.9
1.4
17.9
0.0
3.7
9.8
1.2
13.2
1.3
15.3
0.0
3.4
8.6
1.1
11.1
1.2
14.3
2.8
Target price
(SAR)16.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
1.6
2.8
0.0
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)15.10
Reuters (Equity)
2350.SE
Market cap (USDm)
6,039
Free float (%)
25
Country
Saudi Arabia
Analyst
Sriharsha Pappu
23
23
21
21
19
19
17
17
15
15
13
13
11
11
7
2012
2013
Saudi Kayan Petrochemical
12/2013a
2014
7
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
KAYAN AB
Market cap (SARm)
22,650
Enterprise value (SARm)
47662
Sector
CHEMICALS
Contact
971 4 4236924
Price relative
0
39,208
6,380
269
45,588
2,772
29,352
29,083
14,094
42,546
6
.
0
9.2
34.0
13.2
77.5
816.9
2.5
0.7
1.4
5.1
5.1
3.0
7.5
15.5
18.9
18.9
0.2
0.7
-2.4
0.7
24.4
2.3
5.2
206.4
11.5
4.7
0.3
5.0
11.0
4.6
38.3
18.4
9.6
159.0
5.6
17.1
0.3
5.4
10.4
4.7
37.6
18.2
11.0
123.4
4.8
18.2
0.3
6.4
11.3
5.5
39.2
20.4
11.8
100.3
3.9
21.8
-0.23
-0.23
0.00
9.40
1.09
1.09
0.00
10.49
1.14
1.14
0.00
11.63
1.36
1.36
0.42
12.57
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
81
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
82
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Financials
Our full year estimates call for a 33% y-o-y increase
in earnings in 2014 after broadly flat earnings in
2013 and a 15% decline in 2012. The stock trades at
a 16x PE based on our 2014 estimates.
Valuation
We use a DCF to value Sipchem. Our cost of
equity for Sipchem is 10.0% and includes a riskfree rate of 3.5%, a market risk premium of 6%
and a beta of 1.09. We use a 5% cost of debt
assumption and a 30% debt weighting, which
yields a WACC estimate of 8.5%. This yields a
DCF valuation of SAR34 per share, which is our
target price.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5pp above
and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%. At
the time we set our target price, it implied a potential
return that was within the Neutral band; therefore,
we rate the stock Neutral. Potential return equals the
percentage difference between the current share
price and the target price, including the forecast
dividend yield when indicated
Risks
Key upside/downside risks include:
A faster/slower-than-expected ramp-up in
production from new plants is a key
upside/downside risk
83
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
3,959
1,707
-539
1,169
-192
991
991
-55
620
620
4,606
2,056
-549
1,508
-214
1,309
1,309
-79
824
824
5,308
2,243
-633
1,610
-214
1,412
1,412
-71
912
912
5,289
2,085
-633
1,452
-198
1,269
1,269
-63
820
820
1,249
-1,621
-1,621
-495
1,535
-619
2,159
-215
-215
-458
-965
1,652
2,157
-312
-312
-458
-827
1,561
2,085
0
0
-458
-493
1,823
193
11,714
4,405
2,881
16,313
1,525
6,758
3,877
6,160
11,907
193
11,394
4,559
2,784
16,146
1,690
5,834
3,050
6,614
11,672
193
11,126
4,044
2,257
15,363
1,731
4,814
2,557
6,975
11,376
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
5.0
11.5
1.6
21.2
2.3
-4.2
3.5
4.1
9.1
1.6
15.9
2.1
11.1
3.5
3.4
8.1
1.6
14.4
2.0
10.3
3.5
3.4
8.5
1.6
16.0
1.9
12.0
3.5
Target price
(SAR)34.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)35.80
Reuters (Equity)
2310.SE
Market cap (USDm)
3,500
Free float (%)
66
Country
Saudi Arabia
Analyst
Sriharsha Pappu
39
39
34
34
29
29
24
24
19
19
14
2012
2013
Saudi International Petro
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
0.9
3.4
2.8
0.4
3.2
16.3
20.4
29.0
32.0
32.9
15.2
9.1
6.8
7.9
10.6
-0.4
-7.0
-9.8
-10.1
-10.1
0.3
9.7
10.9
6.9
43.1
29.5
8.9
65.2
2.8
25.8
0.4
11.7
13.8
8.6
44.6
32.7
9.6
48.7
1.9
55.7
0.5
13.0
14.3
9.5
42.3
30.3
10.5
35.5
1.4
70.7
0.5
12.0
12.1
8.8
39.4
27.5
10.5
28.1
1.2
81.5
1.69
1.69
1.25
15.80
2.25
2.25
1.25
16.80
2.49
2.49
1.25
18.04
2.24
2.24
1.25
19.02
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
84
Bloomberg (Equity)
SIPCHEM AB
Market cap (SARm)
13,127
Enterprise value (SARm)
18799
Sector
CHEMICALS
Contact
971 4 4236924
Price relative
193
12,048
4,493
2,854
16,734
1,537
7,696
4,842
5,794
12,344
5
.
0
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
14
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
A multi-leg equity story
85
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
86
Valuation
We use DCF to value PetroRabigh. Our cost of
equity is 10.1% and includes a risk-free rate of
3.5%, a market risk premium of 6% and a beta of
1.1. We use a 5% cost-of-debt assumption and a
30% debt weighting to get to our WACC estimate
of 8.6%. This yields a DCF value of SAR38 per
share (for standalone Rabigh 1).
Given the announcement on 15 May 2014 that
Rabigh 2 will be executed at the listco level, we
incorporated the value of Rabigh 2 into our
estimates. Our NPV for the project is SAR10 per
share, and we apply a 30% discount to that
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
1,250
900
600
700
300
600
200
Total
4,550
Rabigh 2
Total
424
80
120
1,340
424
384
275
170
420
75
75
15
70
86
50
80
60
700
1,250
900
600
700
300
600
200
424
80
120
1340
424
384
275
170
420
75
75
15
70
86
50
80
60
700
4,848
9,398
Risks
Key downside risks include:
Operating risks: PetroRabigh has faced
multiple operating issues in the past. A
continued persistence of such issues would
have a negative impact on our estimates and
valuation of the company.
Refining margins: The companys refining
segment has faced negative margins on a
persistent basis in the past. We expect
margins in the refining segment to improve in
2014 given the reduction in marketing costs
charged by the parent companies, Aramco
and Sumitomo. Any increase in marketing
fees, reversing this reduction, would have a
negative impact on our estimates and
valuation of the company.
87
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
50,598
1,884
-2,197
-313
-297
359
359
0
359
359
54,036
4,560
-2,134
2,425
-265
2,424
2,424
0
2,424
2,424
53,763
5,552
-2,155
3,396
-236
3,437
3,437
0
3,437
3,437
51,970
5,470
-2,155
3,315
-208
3,392
3,392
0
3,392
3,392
-1,129
-106
16
0
1,112
-1,526
4,709
-178
24
-876
-3,913
3,639
5,400
-359
-109
-1,314
-4,033
4,765
5,545
-453
-203
-1,752
-3,617
4,807
208
24,680
18,093
3,332
45,167
14,251
20,353
17,020
10,466
25,397
208
22,828
19,777
5,175
44,750
13,901
18,163
12,988
12,589
23,737
208
21,099
20,731
6,602
43,724
13,425
15,973
9,370
14,229
22,010
Year to
208
26,690
16,259
1,610
45,594
14,036
22,543
20,933
8,917
27,511
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
1.0
26.7
1.8
82.0
3.3
-5.2
0.0
0.9
10.2
1.8
12.1
2.8
12.4
3.0
0.8
7.6
1.8
8.6
2.3
16.2
4.5
0.7
7.1
1.8
8.7
2.1
16.3
5.9
Target price
(SAR)45.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Overweight
(SAR)33.62
Reuters (Equity)
2380.SE
Market cap (USDm)
7,852
Free float (%)
25
Country
Saudi Arabia
Analyst
Sriharsha Pappu
39
39
34
34
29
29
24
24
19
19
14
14
9
2012
2013
Rabigh Refining And Petro
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
-18.4
-33.6
-147.9
-26.5
-26.5
6.8
142.1
575.0
575.0
-0.5
21.8
40.0
41.8
41.8
-3.3
-1.5
-2.4
-1.3
-1.3
1.9
-1.2
4.1
0.8
3.7
-0.6
6.3
234.7
11.1
2.0
9.2
25.0
5.3
8.4
4.5
17.2
162.6
3.7
27.7
2.2
13.8
29.8
7.6
10.3
6.3
23.5
103.2
2.3
41.6
2.3
14.5
25.3
7.7
10.5
6.4
26.3
65.9
1.7
59.2
0.41
0.41
0.00
10.18
2.77
2.77
1.00
11.95
3.92
3.92
1.50
14.37
3.87
3.87
2.00
16.24
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
88
Bloomberg (Equity)
PETROR AB
Market cap (SARm)
29,451
Enterprise value (SARm)
46463
Sector
OIL & GAS
Contact
971 4 4236924
Price relative
3
3
.
8
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
9
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Maaden
MAADEN AB, N, TP: SAR38
Company description
The Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden)
was formed to facilitate the development of Saudi
Arabias mineral resources. The company is
viewed as a vehicle for diversification in an
economy reliant on oil and petrochemicals.
Maadens objective is to engage in projects
relating to mining, including the development,
advancement and improvement of the industry, as
well as in mineral products and by products.
These activities exclude petroleum and natural gas
and their derivatives. Ma'aden's main projects are
gold, phosphate, aluminium, and infrastructure.
The gold business has been operational since the
inception of the company. The phosphate project
is a joint venture with SABIC, (which owns 30%)
and includes a phosphate rock mine, a
beneficiation plant, and a chemical complex
containing sulphuric acid and ammonia plants.
The aluminium project is a joint venture with
Alcoa, which has a 25.5% stake. It includes a
bauxite mine, an alumina refinery, an aluminium
smelter and a rolling mill. Maaden announced a
delay in commercial production at its aluminium
smelter. This was initially set for end of 2013,
brought forward to end Q2-2014 and has now
been delayed to September 2014. While in 2015
we expect to see the bauxite mine and alumina
refinery come on-line.
Investment case
We rate Maaden Neutral. Although Maaden is
one of a few companies with the ability to
Financials
Maaden Q2-14 earnings came in at SAR371m, a
major beat on consensus and our forecasts by
102% and 28%, respectively. Major
improvements on the operating level with EBIT at
SAR502m, up 161% qoq and 38% above our
estimate of SAR364m.
The company attributed the great results to an
increase in volumes and prices of DAP and
aluminum. Aluminium sales were SAR817m for
the quarter, up c100% from Q1-14. DAP
operating rates increased to 79% from 70% last
quarter and 64% in 2013.
Valuation
We value Maaden using a DCF-based sum-ofparts (SOP) valuation (we value each part using a
DCF), taking account of the debt allocated to each
individual project and Maadens stake in it. We
apply a uniform risk-free rate of 1.8%, an equity
risk premium of 12.5% and beta of 0.9 across the
different business units, giving us an 11.4% cost
of equity. The cost of debt is estimated at 4.0%.
Using an equity: debt structure of 80:20 for gold
89
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risks
The key risks to our Neutral rating on Maaden are:
A reduction in the Saudi Arabian
governments subsidies on natural gas.
That Maaden will struggle to export DAP
without offering higher price discounts,
especially when Waad Al Shamal project
comes online.
The release of more details on longer-term
projects could give the market enough
visibility for their value to be reflected in the
stock price.
90
abc
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Neutral
Financial statements
Year to
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
6,047
957
1,019
1,976
-183
3,174
3,174
-55
3,252
3,252
7,585
1,658
1,876
3,534
-191
3,344
3,344
-66
4,396
4,396
11,766
3,200
1,882
5,083
-1,262
3,821
3,821
-85
5,286
5,286
13,184
3,631
1,888
5,520
-1,254
4,266
4,266
-103
5,824
5,824
1,538
-10,548
-7,528
0
10,931
-10,445
-2,335
-7,283
-7,283
0
7,550
-9,684
-622
-425
-425
0
-1,026
-1,132
1,386
-325
-325
0
-3,140
958
420
23,602
757
-2,359
32,503
2,207
33,545
35,904
20,234
24,931
420
22,144
2,121
-2,532
25,551
1,268
32,347
34,878
20,726
25,948
420
20,579
4,603
-590
26,369
920
31,148
31,738
21,530
25,273
420
18,196
7,180
4,389
63,231
5,618
32,743
28,354
19,760
15,789
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
4.2
26.5
1.6
10.6
1.7
345.3
0.0
8.3
37.7
2.5
7.8
1.7
-36.3
0.0
5.8
21.4
2.6
6.5
1.7
-3.4
0.0
5.0
18.0
2.6
5.9
1.6
2.8
0.0
Target price
(SAR)38.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Year to
(SAR)37.20
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
1211.SE
9,175
36
Saudi Arabia
Nicholas Paton
44
44
39
39
34
34
29
29
24
24
19
2012
2013
Maaden
12/2013a
2014
19
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
MAADEN AB
Market cap (SARm)
34,410
Enterprise value (SARm)
62590
Sector
Metals & Mining
Contact
+971 4 423 6923
Price relative
2
.
2
8.4
-65.3
12.2
107.2
198.1
25.4
73.3
78.9
5.4
35.2
55.1
93.0
43.8
14.3
20.3
12.1
13.5
8.6
11.6
10.2
0.4
11.8
17.2
5.6
15.8
32.7
5.2
113.4
29.6
5.4
0.4
17.0
22.0
7.2
21.9
46.6
8.7
147.4
21.6
0.5
19.5
25.8
17.1
27.2
43.2
2.5
149.7
10.9
0.5
21.0
27.6
20.8
27.5
41.9
2.9
141.4
8.7
4.4
3.52
3.52
0.00
21.36
4.75
4.75
0.00
21.87
5.72
5.72
0.00
22.41
6.30
6.30
0.00
23.28
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
91
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Yield play
Financials
Investment thesis
Valuation
92
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Risks
Nitrogen fertiliser prices
93
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
4,240
3,171
-374
2,797
25
3,273
3,273
-112
3,160
3,160
4,413
3,461
-340
3,121
37
3,579
3,579
-96
3,483
3,483
5,349
4,188
-392
3,796
30
4,247
4,247
-114
4,134
4,134
5,357
4,249
-444
3,805
24
4,250
4,250
-114
4,137
4,137
3,085
-925
-925
46
1,414
2,064
3,482
-496
-496
37
-1,772
2,876
4,313
-604
-604
30
684
3,599
4,269
-643
-643
24
592
3,517
0
3,838
5,279
3,952
11,521
469
40
-3,912
10,406
4,696
0
3,922
4,877
3,269
11,644
569
40
-3,229
10,430
4,962
0
3,968
4,288
2,676
11,565
570
40
-2,636
10,350
5,010
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
11.7
15.6
10.0
16.9
6.5
4.0
7.5
10.7
13.6
10.0
15.4
5.1
5.6
7.7
8.9
11.3
9.6
12.9
5.1
7.1
7.9
8.9
11.2
9.5
12.9
5.2
7.0
8.1
Target price
(SAR)176.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Overweight
(SAR)160.50
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
2020.SE
14,264
35
Saudi Arabia
Nicholas Paton
181
171
161
151
141
131
121
111
101
91
2012
2013
Saudi Arabian Fertilizer
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
-14.9
-18.0
-20.6
-17.6
-18.3
4.1
9.1
11.6
9.4
10.2
21.2
21.0
21.6
18.7
18.7
0.2
1.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.9
57.3
36.9
32.4
74.8
66.0
0.9
62.9
37.3
33.2
78.4
70.7
1.1
76.5
39.7
35.7
78.3
71.0
1.1
74.3
39.8
35.6
79.3
71.0
-25.9
-0.7
-37.6
-1.1
-31.0
-0.8
-25.5
-0.6
9.48
9.48
12.00
24.81
10.45
10.45
12.33
31.22
12.40
12.40
12.65
31.29
12.41
12.41
13.03
31.05
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
94
Bloomberg (Equity)
SAFCO AB
Market cap (SARm)
53,500
Enterprise value (SARm)
47184
Sector
CHEMICALS
Contact
+971 4 423 6923
Price relative
0
4,320
3,368
2,140
9,460
587
0
-2,140
8,269
4,962
9
.
7
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
181
171
161
151
141
131
121
111
101
91
2015
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
95
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Cement
Labour shortage
96
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
2013
1Q
2012
2013
2Q
2012
2013
3Q
2012
2013
4Q
Budget (USDm)
Percentage
67,930
405,322
25,384
33,550
42,270
68,625
152,204
8,400
803,685
8%
50%
3%
4%
5%
9%
19%
1%
100%
Chemical
Construction
Gas
Industrial
Oil
Power
Transport
Water
Grand Total
Source: Meed projects
Inventories rising
Based on our data as of May 2014, clinker inventory
levels have reached 17 million tons, which is the
highest level ever recorded in the Saudi market. This
is due to lower demand, last years requirement that
cement companies import close to 10m tons, and a
government requirement that every company have
two months of demand. Looking at the companies
97
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
1,000
676
327
567
292
567
1,067
1,663
600
300
517
267
267
1,167
893
10,167
2,033
828
82
477
550
1,306
1,702
2,684
595
336
914
482
622
1,527
2,421
16,559
1,033
152
-245
-90
258
739
635
1,021
-5
36
397
215
355
360
1,529
6,393
16%
9%
7%
29%
2%
21%
14%
28%
11%
23%
23%
18%
23%
11%
15%
Total
imports
748
1,410
110
14
471
677
1,028
281
400
188
999
420
6,746
Company
Current capacity
(000s tpa)
Expected online
Current Capacity
Utilization (2013)
Yanbu
Arabia
Al Safwa
Umm AlQurra
6,000
4,054
1,960
-
2,000
2016
108%
110%
95%
-
Central - north
Qassim
3,400
123%
Central - east
Central - east
Central - east
City
Riyadh
Yamama
1,750
3,400
6,400
1,900
1,740
-
Q2-14
2015
-
100%
93%
99%
East - central
East - central
SCC
Eastern
9,980
3,600
1,000
-
Q3-14
-
88%
85%
North
North
North
North
Tabuk
Northern
Al Jouf
Hail
1,800
3,100
1,600
1,600
1,600
-
Q2-14
-
82%
62%
84%
38%
South
South
South
Southern
Najran
Baha
7,000
5,355
-
1,500
1,600
May-14
2015
105%
83%
-
60,999
11,340
94%
West
West
West
West
Total
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Construction
According to MEED Projects data, projects worth
more than USD1.3trn are under active status and
more than USD200bn are under main Contract
PQ/Bid due to be awarded in 2014. In 2013, of the
USD126bn planned a total of USD66bn was actually
awarded, implying c50% award rate. Even after
applying a 50% discount to the unawarded projects
we still estimate that cUSD100bn worth of projects
are due to be awarded in 2014; this gives a sense of
the market: it is significant.
However getting paid on time remains a challenge
for contractors working on projects in Saudi
Arabia. Post the 2008 crisis, all the GCC
contractors concentrated on Saudi Arabia to
benefit from the spending surge. While this has
certainly provided sales growth, cash flow
generation has lagged earnings and sales growth
by a big margin. Given the nature of contracting
and procurement laws in Saudi Arabia,
contractors have witnessed significant payment
delays with account receivables rising as high as
144% of sales in 2013 for Al Khodrai, which has
operations only in Saudi Arabia.
99
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Yamamah Cement
Company
YACCO AB, Price SAR62, N, TP
SAR70
Company description
Located in the central region, Yamamah Cement is
the Kingdoms second-largest cement producer, with
capacity of 6.4mtpa. The company holds a 33%
stake in Cement Product Industry Co. Ltd. (CPI),
which produces cement bags (among other things).
Yamamah was asked to move its plant, which is
on the eastern side of Riyadh, to outside the city
limits in order to reduce pollution. The company
is waiting for the government to approve the grant
for the land to which the plant will be relocated,
after which it will build a new plant. Depending
on the additional gas allocation Yamamah may
receive from Aramco, it could increase its
capacity by a third according to management. At
the minimum, we believe we could see an
increase of c15% as a result of a more efficient
plant design. Management has stated that its
current land is very valuable and it could either
sell it or develop it. We expect an announcement
regarding the land plot and the move hopefully
sometime this year.
Investment thesis
The main reason for our Neutral stance on
Yamamah is our belief that numbers will be
disappointing this year. We expect volumes to fall
4% this year. Given that sales volumes are down
more than 20% in 1H2014, this implies a big
100
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
Yamamah reported Q2-2014 net income of
SAR207m, well above our SAR181m estimate on
higher investment income and the selling of some
shares. Net income was up 8% qoq but still down
29% yoy. Despite the beat on the net income line,
gross profit of SAR199m was almost exactly in
line with our estimate of SAR201m. As with net
income, gross profit was down 26% yoy but up
9.9% qoq. Part of the beat appears to come from
lower SG&A, as EBIT was SAR183m, compared
to our SAR190m forecast. But the main reason for
the beat is likely non-operating items. Sales of
SAR366m were flat qoq but down 20% yoy.
Valuation
Our DCF-based target price of SAR70 for
Yamamah uses a WACC of 9% which we
calculate using a risk-free rate based on the 12month SAIBOR rate of 1.8%. We obtain the cost
of debt by adding 220bp to the 12-month
SAIBOR, arriving at 4%. Our market risk
premium, based on a combination of relative
index returns, Saudi CDS spread and inflation
differential, is 12.7%. We use a beta of 0.9, which
is the average for various large international
cement companies.
In our DCF calculations, we assume a long-term
debt-to-equity ratio of 30:70 and a long-term
growth rate of 2.5%.
We also add the net value of the land (as
discussed above) at SAR500m. Given the
uncertainty over this value (4m sqm at SAR1,000
per sqm), we have used a discount of 40%. This is
similar to the discounts we use for real estate
companies in the region.
Risks
Upside risks include:
101
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Neutral
1,542
1,016
-185
832
-4
856
856
-26
830
830
1,511
966
-183
783
-1
785
785
-24
761
761
1,474
900
-187
713
-1
715
715
-22
693
693
1,474
895
-170
725
-1
727
727
-23
705
705
Year to
822
-28
-258
-608
-30
766
930
-136
-136
-722
-202
790
885
-118
-118
-658
-42
764
878
-103
-103
-669
-115
771
17
1,758
1,839
1,254
4,263
224
31
-1,223
3,893
2,136
17
1,712
2,041
1,455
4,418
227
31
-1,424
3,931
2,087
17
1,643
2,089
1,497
4,397
235
31
-1,466
3,966
2,016
17
1,575
2,200
1,613
4,441
233
31
-1,582
4,001
1,947
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
6.9
10.5
5.0
15.1
3.2
6.5
4.9
6.9
10.8
5.0
16.4
3.2
6.7
5.8
7.0
11.5
5.2
18.0
3.2
6.4
5.3
7.0
11.5
5.3
17.7
3.1
6.5
5.4
Target price
(SAR)70.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
12/2013a
(SAR)61.75
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
3020.SE
3,334
78
Saudi Arabia
Patrick Gaffney
1
3
.
4
Bloomberg (Equity)
YACCO AB
Market cap (SARm)
12,504
Enterprise value (SARm)
10432
Sector
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
Contact
+966 1 299 2100
Price relative
73
73
68
68
63
63
58
58
53
53
48
48
43
43
38
38
33
2012
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
-2.2
-3.9
-3.9
-1.1
1.6
-2.0
-4.9
-5.8
-8.4
-8.4
-2.5
-6.9
-9.0
-8.9
-8.9
0.0
-0.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
0.7
38.4
22.2
20.2
65.9
53.9
279.0
-31.4
-1.2
0.7
36.0
19.4
17.6
63.9
51.8
669.2
-36.2
-1.5
0.7
33.8
17.5
15.8
61.0
48.4
623.3
-37.0
-1.6
0.7
35.5
17.7
16.0
60.7
49.2
620.1
-39.5
-1.8
4.10
4.10
3.00
19.23
3.76
3.76
3.57
19.41
3.42
3.42
3.25
19.59
3.48
3.48
3.31
19.76
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
102
Source: HSBC
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
2013
2014
33
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
Saudi Cement reported 2Q2014 net income of
SAR288m, in-line with our estimate of SAR280m
and a beat on consensus estimates of SAR272m.
Net income was up 1% qoq, but still down 6%
yoy, with the beat coming from non-operational
items. Revenues of SAR538m were in line with
our estimate of SAR539m, and up 1% qoq, but
down 14% yoy.
Valuation
Our DCF-based target price of SAR130 for Saudi
Cement is based on a WACC of 9%.
The WACC is calculated using a risk-free rate
based on the 12-month SAIBOR rate of 1.8%. We
obtain the cost of debt by adding 220bp to the 12month SAIBOR, arriving at 4%. Our market risk
premium, based on a combination of relative
index returns, Saudi CDS spread and inflation
differential, is 12.7%. We use a beta of 0.9, which
is the average for various large international
cement companies.
Investment thesis
103
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risks
Downside risks include:
104
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2,187
1,386
-200
1,186
-13
1,171
1,171
-47
1,124
1,124
2,214
1,392
-200
1,193
-13
1,190
1,190
-48
1,142
1,142
2,533
1,517
-188
1,329
-11
1,328
1,328
-54
1,275
1,275
2,554
1,530
-177
1,353
-10
1,353
1,353
-55
1,299
1,299
Year to
1,202
-57
-53
-1,071
54
1,222
1,329
-57
-55
-1,085
-384
1,226
1,457
-66
-63
-1,211
-99
1,332
1,474
-66
-64
-1,234
-173
1,344
0
3,151
1,071
398
4,310
183
661
263
3,263
3,640
0
3,029
1,176
396
4,292
203
561
165
3,325
3,606
0
2,918
1,276
495
4,279
203
486
-9
3,388
3,498
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
8.0
12.6
4.4
15.0
5.3
7.3
6.3
7.7
12.3
4.7
14.8
5.2
7.3
6.4
6.7
11.2
4.7
13.3
5.1
7.9
7.2
6.6
11.0
4.8
13.0
5.0
8.0
7.3
Target price
(SAR)130.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Overweight
(SAR)110.50
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
3030.SE
4,508
67
Saudi Arabia
Patrick Gaffney
1
7
.
6
Bloomberg (Equity)
SACCO AB
Market cap (SARm)
16,907
Enterprise value (SARm)
17081
Sector
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
Contact
+966 1 299 2100
0
3,293
986
113
4,371
199
761
648
3,208
3,967
Price relative
119
119
109
109
99
99
89
89
79
79
69
69
59
2012
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
-0.7
3.2
3.9
2.5
2.0
1.2
0.4
0.5
1.6
1.6
14.4
8.9
11.4
11.6
11.6
0.8
0.9
1.8
1.9
1.9
0.6
29.2
35.3
26.1
63.4
54.2
106.3
20.2
0.5
185.6
0.6
30.1
35.3
26.6
62.9
53.9
106.0
8.1
0.2
504.7
0.7
35.2
38.7
29.9
59.9
52.5
134.5
5.0
0.1
884.3
0.7
36.6
38.7
30.5
59.9
53.0
159.4
-0.3
0.0
7.35
7.35
7.00
20.97
7.47
7.47
7.09
21.33
8.33
8.33
7.91
21.73
8.49
8.49
8.06
22.14
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
2013
2014
59
2015
Source: HSBC
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
105
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Qassim Cement
QACCO, Price SAR97, N, TP
SAR101
Company Description
Located in the central region, Qassim Cement is
among the mid-sized cement producers in the
Kingdom, with annual clinker production capacity
of 3.0mtpa (but grinding capacity of 4.1m tonnes).
Qassims premium location, situated north of
Riyadh, allows it to distribute its product not only
into the central region, but also to Hail in the
North and Madina in the western province.
Investment thesis
The main reason for our Neutral stance on Qassim
is we expect revenues to be flat in 2014, but to fall
in 2015 due to higher competition in the northern
region. Qassim has been losing market share in
the Northern region to players like Hail Cement
(not covered) since Hail starting production at its
2mtpa plant in May 2013.
Financials
Qassim reported 2Q2014 net profit: of SAR161m
down a beat on our estimate of SAR153m by 5%,
but 2% yoy and up 1% qoq, EBIT of 164m was in
line with our estimate of SAR161m, but down 6%
yoy and up 1% qoq.
Revenues of SAR270m down 10% yoy and
missing our estimate of SAR276m by 2%. The
beat in earnings came from a decline in cogs and
an increase in other income (murabaha income).
.
106
Valuation
Our DCF-based target price of SAR101 for
Qassim uses a WACC of 9%, which is calculated
using a risk-free rate based on the 12-month
SAIBOR rate of 1.8%. We obtain the cost of debt
by adding 220bp to the 12-month SAIBOR,
arriving at 4%. Our market risk premium, based
on a combination of relative index returns, Saudi
CDS spread and inflation differential, is 12.7%.
We use a beta of 0.9, which is the average for
various large international cement companies.
In our DCF calculations, we assume a long-term
debt-to-equity ratio of 30:70 and a long-term
growth rate of 3%.
On an EV/ton basis, Qassim trades at an EV/ton
of USD601, which appears relatively expensive
compared to the average of USD506 for all
thirteen cement stocks in Saudi.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator the Neutral band is 5pp above and
below the hurdle rate for Saudi Arabian stocks of
9%. At the time we set our target price it implied a
potential return that was within the Neutral band, so
we rate the stock Neutral. Potential return equals the
percentage difference between the current share
price and the target price, including the forecast
dividend yield when indicated.
Risks
Upside risks include:
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
107
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Neutral
1,051
693
-86
606
0
621
621
-36
585
585
1,054
695
-85
611
13
633
633
-36
597
597
964
605
-76
529
15
555
555
-32
523
523
1,006
628
-68
560
16
586
586
-34
552
552
Year to
646
-30
64
-540
-103
602
761
-63
-63
-567
-167
687
584
-48
-48
-497
-57
526
577
-50
-50
-552
-14
516
0
1,095
1,098
844
2,193
124
0
-844
1,997
1,225
0
1,074
1,257
1,012
2,331
231
0
-1,012
2,027
1,088
0
1,046
1,307
1,068
2,354
228
0
-1,068
2,053
1,057
0
1,029
1,328
1,083
2,357
231
0
-1,083
2,053
1,043
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
7.5
11.4
6.4
14.9
4.4
6.9
6.2
7.3
11.1
7.1
14.6
4.3
7.9
6.5
7.9
12.7
7.2
16.7
4.3
6.0
5.7
7.6
12.2
7.3
15.8
4.3
5.9
6.3
Target price
(SAR)101.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
12/2013a
(SAR)97.00
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
3040.SE
2,328
75
Saudi Arabia
Patrick Gaffney
4
.
1
Bloomberg (Equity)
QACCO AB
Market cap (SARm)
8,730
Enterprise value (SARm)
7718
Sector
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
Contact
+966 1 299 2100
Price relative
113
113
103
103
93
93
83
83
73
73
63
63
53
2012
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
0.3
4.1
4.6
4.7
9.9
0.3
0.4
0.7
2.1
2.1
-8.5
-13.0
-13.3
-12.5
-12.5
4.3
3.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
0.8
45.3
29.4
26.9
65.9
57.7
0.9
49.8
29.7
26.4
66.0
58.0
0.9
46.5
25.6
22.3
62.8
54.9
1.0
50.3
26.9
23.5
62.4
55.7
-42.3
-1.2
-49.9
-1.5
-52.0
-1.8
-52.7
-1.7
6.50
6.50
6.00
22.19
6.63
6.63
6.30
22.52
5.81
5.81
5.52
22.81
6.14
6.14
6.14
22.81
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
108
Source: HSBC
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
2013
2014
53
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Yanbu Cement
YNCCO AB, N, TP SAR 78
Company overview
Located in the western region, Yanbu Cement has
recently become one of the largest producers in
terms of capacity after adding a new fifth
production line in 2011 and securing fuel
allocation from Aramco in 2012, bringing their
total capacity to 6mtpa.
The company holds a 60% stake in Yanbu Al
Shuaiba Paper Products Company, a bag producer.
Investment thesis
We expect an increase in sales in the second half,
but given the very weak comps (3Q2013 was
down 4% and 4Q2013 was down 12%), we expect
the companys sales to improve as construction
picks up (as discussed in the sector section
above).We also believe that the construction
market in Jeddah and the Western Province is
improving after the slowdown last year.
Construction on Kingdom Tower, expected to be
the tallest building in the world, has started. Other
major projects include King Abdullah Medical
City, the railroad from Mecca to Madinah (going
through Jeddah) and the King Abdullah Economic
City, where activity has restarted.
Financials
The company reported 2Q 2014 net income that
was 4% better than we expected due to nonoperational items. On a year-over-year basis,
results were down double digits, with EBIT down
20%. However, quarter-over-quarter we are
starting to see improvement. Net income for
2Q2014 came in at SAR241m, down -12% yoy
Valuation
Our DCF-based target price of SAR78 for Yanbu
uses a WACC of 9%, which we calculate using a
risk-free rate based on the 12-month SAIBOR rate
of 1.8%. We obtain the cost of debt by adding
220bp to 12-month SAIBOR, arriving at 4%. Our
market risk premium, based on a combination of
relative index returns, CDS spread and inflation
differential, is 12.7%. We use a beta of 0.9, which
is the average for various large international
cement companies.
In our DCF calculations, we assume a long-term
debt-to-equity ratio of 30:70 and a long-term
growth rate of 3%.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator the Neutral band is 5pp above and
below the hurdle rate for Saudi Arabian stocks of
9%. Our target price implies a 6.5% potential return
109
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risks
Upside risks include:
110
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abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Neutral
1,620
1,053
-206
847
-13
842
842
-16
821
821
1,653
1,070
-207
863
-21
848
848
-21
822
822
1,488
916
-207
709
-1
714
714
-18
692
692
1,474
903
-206
697
3
704
704
-18
683
683
Year to
828
-90
-90
-630
104
718
1,193
-83
-83
-779
-480
1,105
923
-74
-74
-655
-69
843
895
-74
-74
-646
-166
816
0
3,281
1,032
311
4,313
182
688
377
3,281
3,819
0
3,156
1,149
617
4,305
212
514
-103
3,322
3,476
0
3,024
1,039
529
4,063
210
357
-172
3,357
3,323
0
2,891
1,203
695
4,094
210
357
-338
3,391
3,189
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
7.4
11.3
3.1
14.1
3.5
6.2
5.4
6.9
10.7
3.3
14.1
3.5
9.5
6.7
7.7
12.4
3.4
16.7
3.4
7.3
5.7
7.6
12.4
3.5
17.0
3.4
7.0
5.6
Target price
(SAR)78.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
12/2013a
(SAR)73.50
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
3060.SE
3,087
59
Saudi Arabia
Patrick Gaffney
6
.
1
Bloomberg (Equity)
YNCCO AB
Market cap (SARm)
11,576
Enterprise value (SARm)
11473
Sector
CONSTRUCTION
MATERIALS
Contact
+966 1 299 2100
Price relative
82
82
72
72
62
62
52
52
42
42
32
2012
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
8.3
11.3
11.8
12.2
-24.0
2.0
1.6
1.9
0.7
0.1
-10.0
-14.4
-17.8
-15.8
-15.9
-0.9
-1.4
-1.8
-1.3
-1.3
0.4
22.0
25.0
18.6
65.0
52.3
83.4
11.4
0.4
219.9
0.5
23.1
24.9
19.6
64.8
52.2
51.3
-3.1
-0.1
0.4
20.3
20.7
16.6
61.6
47.7
1146.5
-5.1
-0.2
0.5
20.9
20.2
16.8
61.3
47.3
5.21
5.21
4.00
20.83
5.22
5.22
4.95
21.09
4.39
4.39
4.16
21.31
4.33
4.33
4.10
21.53
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
2013
2014
32
2015
Source: HSBC
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
-9.8
-0.4
111
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Abdullah A. M.
Al-Khodari Sons
ALKHODAR AB, Price SAR51, OW,
TP SAR44
Company description
Abdullah A. M. Al-Khodari Sons Company was
established in 1966 and was publicly listed in
September 2010. It is mainly involved in the
construction of roads, buildings and environmental
services such as waste management and city
cleaning. Al-Khodaris operations are limited to
Saudi Arabia and it derives more than 95% of its
revenues from the government sector.
Investment thesis
2013 saw Al Khodari perform well during the H1
only to give most of that back in the H2. The
stock price was influenced by Saudisation related
labour costs that led to a sharp decline in gross
margins. Going forward we think margins will
recover as labour issues subside and legacy
contracts with old pricing finish.
On the 1Q conference call, Al Khodari said that
while the exact framework and implementation of
any change in the procurement laws remain
uncertain, changes could take place by 2H. If they
were to be introduced, we estimate this could
halve the level of receivables for contractors
operating in the Saudi market, which could add
SAR58 per share to our SAR44 target price. We
believe the law is unlikely to be ratified any time
soon, but this represents significant option value
with Al Khodari stock. The stock is up 53.5%
year to date.
112
Financials
The 2Q14 net income of SAR7.9m was higher
than our estimate of SAR2.7m mainly due to
lower material and selling costs, but down -68.8%
from 2Q13 net income of SAR25.3m. Higher
material and manpower costs contributed to
decline in net profit when compared to last year.
The increased manpower costs were mainly due to
addition of 5,931 employees and work permit
costs for expatriate employees. The total contract
backlog reached to SAR3,223m at the end of
2Q14. Our core thesis on Al Khodari is for an
improving margin due to a tapering of issues
related to Saudisation and a declining proportion
of legacy contracts (those that pre-date the higher
labour costs). According to the company, this
improvement is still on track, and margin
recovery should start in 2H14.
Valuation
We use a DCF methodology to value Al Khodari
and our DCF uses explicit forecasts out to 2023
and terminal value assumptions thereafter. WACC
of 8.8% is derived from a risk-free rate of 1.8%,
representing the 12-month SAIBOR rate. The cost
of debt is derived by adding 100bp to the risk-free
rate while the market cost of equity is based on a
combination of relative index returns, CDS spread
and inflation differential to arrive at 12.7%. The
long-term beta is Bloombergs adjusted beta of
1.18. The debt/equity ratio is assumed to be 50:50
as we think Al Khodari will raise debt to finance
working capital requirements. We assume a longterm growth rate of 2.5%.
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Risks
Saudi labour reforms (Saudisation): Al
Khodari would experience severe margin
pressure in a scenario where the government
announced further labour reforms that
included higher levels or Saudisation or a
further increase in salary for Saudi nationals.
Abrupt slowdown in Saudi spending: Al
Khodaris new order volume will decline
significantly in the case of a spending
slowdown by the KSA government. Though
unlikely in the near term, this presents a risk
as Al Khodari derives more than 95% of its
revenues from the Saudi government sector.
113
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
1,530
243
-145
97
-34
66
66
-2
64
64
1,597
277
-152
126
-42
99
99
-2
96
96
2,100
381
-199
182
-43
158
158
-4
154
154
2,499
473
-237
236
-46
212
212
-5
207
207
-65
-247
-278
-247
-27
325
-312
413
-240
200
-240
-27
-147
159
-82
-315
-373
-315
-27
424
-416
91
-325
-210
-325
-27
260
-256
568
2,576
218
3,176
1,483
1,265
810
2,116
655
2,593
364
3,280
1,483
1,119
880
2,039
771
2,840
-60
3,643
1,483
1,543
1,007
2,590
858
3,105
-320
3,996
1,483
1,803
1,187
3,031
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
0.4
-11.5
-28.4
-54.2
-52.4
4.3
14.3
29.0
49.3
49.3
31.5
37.4
44.5
60.0
60.0
19.0
24.2
29.9
34.6
34.6
0.8
4.9
8.1
3.3
15.9
6.4
7.2
156.1
5.2
0.8
5.9
11.4
4.2
17.4
7.9
6.7
127.2
4.0
36.9
0.9
7.7
16.3
5.6
18.2
8.7
8.9
153.2
4.0
0.9
8.2
18.9
6.6
18.9
9.4
10.2
151.9
3.8
5.1
1.21
1.21
0.50
15.25
1.81
1.81
0.50
16.56
2.89
2.89
0.50
18.95
3.89
3.89
0.67
22.35
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
PBT
HSBC EPS
114
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.6
16.2
1.9
42.1
3.3
-11.7
1.0
2.4
13.7
1.9
28.2
3.1
5.9
1.0
2.0
11.1
1.6
17.6
2.7
-15.6
1.0
1.8
9.5
1.5
13.1
2.3
-9.6
1.3
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Note: * = Based on HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
Issuer information
(SAR)51.00
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
1330.SE
722
40
Saudi Arabia
Nicholas Paton
44.00
-13.7
Bloomberg (Equity)
ALKHODAR AB
Market cap (SARm)
2,709
Enterprise value (SARm)
3796
Sector
CONSTRUCTION &
ENGINEERING
Contact
+971 4 423 6923
Price relative
54
54
49
49
44
44
39
39
34
34
29
29
24
24
19
2012
2013
Abdullah A. M. Al-Khodari
Source: HSBC
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Year to
Share price
Overweight
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
19
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
Amiantit continues to see weak margins and
declining revenues. We believe that a recovery
may start in later half of 2014 as competitors are
forced to exit because of depressed margins, but
we remain Neutral on the stock pending any
actual signs of recovery.
Financials
Amiantit continued to see weak numbers in Q2
14. Net income for the quarter was down 20%
while for H1 14 was down 26%. Group top-line
also saw significant as sales revenue were down
14% in Q2 14 (down 16% in H1 14). The
management pointed to lower average diameter
mix in fibreglass sales as well as crackdown on
illegal labour in Saudi which hit construction
work for the weak growth.
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Valuation
We value Amiantit using a DCF model. The key
determinants of our WACC of 11.4% are: a riskfree rate based on the 12-month SAIBOR rate,
which is 1.8%; a cost of debt of 4%, which is
based on 12- month SAIBOR plus 220bp; and a
market cost of equity, based on a combination of
relative index returns, CDS spread and inflation
differential, which is 12.7%. We use a long-term
debt-to-equity ratio of 30:70 and a beta of 1.17.
We assume a terminal growth rate of 2%.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5ppts above
and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%. At
the time we set our target price it implied a potential
return above the Neutral band hence we have
Neutral rating for Amiantit. Potential return equals
the percentage difference between the current share
price and the target price, including the forecast
dividend yield when indicated.
115
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risks
Key upside risks include:
116
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Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2012a
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
3,455
377
-114
263
-86
140
140
-45
111
111
3,131
296
-69
227
-87
137
137
-44
113
113
3,473
430
-118
312
-57
260
260
-83
167
167
3,614
453
-118
335
-74
276
276
-69
196
196
Year to
-426
-115
-97
-115
732
-546
341
-100
-100
-115
-172
240
112
-108
-108
-142
-292
4
262
-116
-116
-166
-4
146
0
848
3,795
127
4,857
1,179
1,964
1,837
1,568
3,336
0
849
3,457
149
4,411
907
1,814
1,665
1,564
3,250
0
817
3,873
592
4,884
1,174
1,964
1,372
1,583
2,924
0
815
3,949
596
4,972
1,197
1,964
1,368
1,612
2,970
(SARm)
12/2012a
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
1.1
9.9
1.1
18.8
1.3
-29.0
5.5
1.2
12.3
1.1
18.5
1.3
12.0
5.5
0.9
7.6
1.1
12.5
1.3
0.2
6.8
0.9
7.2
1.1
10.7
1.3
7.7
8.0
Target price
(SAR)16.40
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)18.10
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
2160.SE
557
87
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
23
23
21
21
19
19
17
17
15
15
13
13
11
11
9
2012
2013
Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co
12/2012a
2014
9
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
SAAC AB
Market cap (SARm)
2,091
Enterprise value (SARm)
3279
Sector
Building Products
Contact
+971 4423 6932
Price relative
9
.
4
-3.0
-20.7
-18.8
-38.9
-26.4
-9.4
-21.4
-13.6
-1.9
1.1
10.9
45.1
37.0
89.2
48.1
4.1
5.3
7.6
6.4
17.3
1.2
6.0
7.0
2.1
10.9
7.6
4.4
107.2
4.9
1.0
4.7
7.2
2.0
9.5
7.3
3.4
98.4
5.6
20.5
1.1
6.9
10.6
3.8
12.4
9.0
7.6
79.9
3.2
8.1
1.2
8.5
12.2
4.2
12.5
9.3
6.1
77.7
3.0
19.1
0.97
0.97
1.00
13.59
0.98
0.98
1.00
13.56
1.45
1.45
1.23
13.72
1.70
1.70
1.44
13.98
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
117
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
SSP was one of the best performers in the Saudi
infrastructure space during 2013. The company saw
strong top-line growth of 16% during 2013, while
competitors saw falling revenues and shrinking
margins. In contrast, SSP saw a significant
improvement in profitability with the 2013
operating margin increasing by 2pp y-o-y. In our
118
Financials
SSP reported 38% drop in net income during Q2 14
with H1 14 net income seeing a significant 60%
drop as the groups profitability was hit by
increasing international competition as well as
problems in associates and increasing labour costs.
Valuation
We value SSP using a DCF model. The key
determinants of our WACC of 11.6% are: a riskfree rate based on the 12-month SAIBOR rate,
which is 1.8%; a cost of debt of 4%, which is
based on 12-month SAIBOR plus 220bp; and a
market cost of equity, based on a combination of
relative index returns, CDS spread and inflation
differential, which is 12.7%. We use a long-term,
debt-to-equity ratio of 30:70 and a beta of 1.20.
We assume a long term growth rate of 2%.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5ppts
above and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks
of 9%. Our target price of SAR37.5 implies a
potential return of 6%, within the Neutral band,
hence we are Neutral on SSP. Potential return
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+ 971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Risks
Key upside risks include:
SSP being unable to increase capacity for smalldiameter pipes to cope with growing demand
Competition from seamless piping hurting
large-diameter sales
119
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
839
107
-24
83
-2
79
79
0
79
79
1,012
138
-27
111
-3
116
116
0
116
116
1,118
168
-33
135
-3
140
140
0
140
140
1,233
193
-38
155
-3
160
160
0
160
160
Year to
56
-215
-222
-69
267
-167
154
-74
-74
-93
-369
64
181
-115
-115
-112
46
52
214
-62
-62
-128
-24
135
0
701
519
54
1,344
134
415
362
794
1,031
0
487
521
154
1,156
169
146
-8
840
685
0
568
473
108
1,198
183
146
38
868
750
0
592
490
132
1,247
201
146
14
900
750
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.4
19.0
2.0
22.7
2.3
-10.0
3.8
1.6
11.9
2.4
15.5
2.1
3.9
5.2
1.5
10.0
2.2
12.9
2.1
3.2
6.2
1.3
8.5
2.2
11.3
2.0
8.3
7.1
Target price
(SAR)37.50
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)35.30
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
1320.SE
480
35
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
47
47
42
42
37
37
32
32
27
27
22
22
17
2012
2013
Saudi Steel Pipes
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
15.6
33.3
44.2
47.9
47.9
20.6
28.8
33.3
46.1
46.1
10.5
21.4
21.4
20.6
20.6
10.3
15.2
15.0
14.3
14.3
0.9
9.3
10.0
6.6
12.8
9.9
59.7
45.5
3.4
15.5
1.2
12.9
14.2
9.3
13.6
11.0
48.0
-0.9
-0.1
1.6
18.8
16.4
11.9
15.0
12.0
55.7
4.4
0.2
475.9
1.6
20.7
18.1
13.1
15.7
12.6
55.7
1.5
0.1
1542.7
1.56
1.56
1.34
15.57
2.28
2.28
1.82
16.47
2.74
2.74
2.20
17.02
3.14
3.14
2.51
17.65
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
120
Bloomberg (Equity)
SSP AB
Market cap (SARm)
1,800
Enterprise value (SARm)
1645
Sector
BUILDING PRODUCTS
Contact
+971 4423 6932
Price relative
6
.
2
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
17
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Zamil Industries
ZIIC AB, Price SAR60.75, N, TP
SAR48
Company description
Zamil Industrial Investment Company (ZIIC)
operates through four primary business units:
Zamil Air Conditioners, Zamil Steel Industries,
Zamil Glass Industries and Arabian Fibreglass
Insulation Co Ltd. The company sells its products
in more than 60 countries and has manufacturing
facilities in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates,
Egypt, Austria, India, Vietnam and Italy. The
Zamil Air Conditioning (ZAC) division designs,
manufactures, tests, markets and services a
comprehensive range of air-conditioning products,
from compact room air conditioners and mini
splits to large-scale central air conditioners,
chillers and air-handling units for highly
specialised commercial and industrial
applications, marketed under various brand
names. ZACs factories are located in Dammam,
Saudi Arabia, for standard units and in Italy and
Austria for specialised units.
ZAC also produces branded air conditioners for
several international manufacturers, including a
joint venture with General Electric. Zamil Steel
(ZS) manufactures pre-engineered steel buildings
and various structural steel products, including
transmission towers. It manufactures a total of
250,000mt of fabricated steel a year for both lowand high-rise steel buildings and structures for
diverse uses, including storage for the oil and
gas industries.
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Investment thesis
We see strong growth potential for Zamils air
conditioning division and estimate double digit
growth in 2015. However, in order to see further
upside in the stock, we believe the steel division
will also need to show revenue growth without
compromising margins. In the current market
conditions, this is difficult to predict, but we
believe the recent labour shortages will have
affected competitors who tend to hire more
temporary workers and, as a result, an
environment with better pricing power for Zamil
may arise.
Financials
Zamil reported 3% drop in revenues during Q2 14
with both air-conditioning and steel divisions
seeing marginal declines. However, operating
margins of the group saw 50bp improvement
thanks to improving margins in steel division
which we believe is due to dropping competition
in the sector.
121
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation
We value Zamil using a DCF model. The key
determinants of our WACC of 10.4% are: a riskfree rate based on the 12-month SAIBOR rate,
which is 1.8%; a cost of debt of 4%, which is
based on 12-month SAIBOR plus 220bp; and a
market cost of equity, based on a combination of
relative index returns, CDS spread and inflation
differential, which is 12.7%. We use a long-term
debt-to-equity ratio of 30:70 and a beta of 1.03.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5ppts above
and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%. At
the time we set our target price it implied a potential
return within the Neutral band; hence, we have a
Neutral rating on Zamil. Potential return equals the
percentage difference between the current share
price and the target price, including the forecast
dividend yield when indicated.
Risks
Key upside risks include:
122
abc
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2012a
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
5,393
510
-146
364
-91
285
285
-41
201
201
5,414
540
-139
400
-86
287
287
-35
235
235
5,927
599
-161
437
-88
354
354
-35
268
268
6,196
649
-191
458
-80
383
383
-38
289
289
Year to
311
-216
-211
-90
81
91
302
-191
-155
-90
-45
44
451
-190
-190
-134
-198
256
515
-198
-198
-173
-183
312
181
1,585
4,436
346
6,478
1,545
3,218
2,872
1,451
4,310
159
1,624
4,512
269
6,908
1,932
3,095
2,826
1,609
4,094
181
1,651
4,847
589
6,955
1,647
3,218
2,628
1,729
4,442
181
1,658
5,086
772
7,202
1,723
3,218
2,446
1,845
4,430
(SARm)
12/2012a
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
1.2
12.2
1.4
18.1
2.5
2.7
2.5
1.1
10.9
1.4
15.5
2.3
1.5
2.5
1.0
10.0
1.4
13.6
2.1
7.6
3.7
0.9
9.0
1.3
12.6
2.0
9.3
4.8
Target price
(SAR)48.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)60.75
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
2240.SE
972
80
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
64
59
54
49
44
39
34
29
24
19
2012
2013
2014
64
59
54
49
44
39
34
29
24
19
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
ZIIC AB
Market cap (SARm)
3,645
Enterprise value (SARm)
5997
Sector
BUILDING PRODUCTS
Contact
+971 4423 6932
Price relative
Zamil Industries
Year to
2
1
.
0
13.8
24.6
33.8
33.6
30.7
0.4
5.8
10.0
1.0
16.8
9.5
11.0
9.2
23.3
13.7
4.5
8.3
4.8
8.0
8.0
1.3
7.5
14.4
5.1
9.5
6.7
5.6
167.4
5.6
10.8
1.3
8.4
15.4
4.9
10.0
7.4
6.3
150.3
5.2
10.7
1.4
9.2
16.0
5.7
10.1
7.4
6.8
125.7
4.4
17.1
1.4
9.3
16.2
5.9
10.5
7.4
8.1
108.1
3.8
21.1
3.36
3.36
1.50
24.18
3.92
3.92
1.50
26.81
4.46
4.46
2.23
28.82
4.82
4.82
2.89
30.75
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
123
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
APC reported FY2013 net income of SAR9.7m
compared to a net loss of SAR25m in FY2012
which according to the company was mainly on the
back of selling of Taqa investment for SAR56m.
The company saw loss at the operating profit line to
the tune of SAR17m as margins continued to
remain weak. During FY 2012, even though the
company had seen significant growth in top-line
which more than doubled, margins remained under
pressure and APC reported net loss of SAR25m.
The management has attributed the significant drop
to lack of projects in Jubail plant.
124
Recent news
On 17 Jul 2014, APC announced Q2 14
results. The company reported net loss of
SAR14m during the quarter compared to
SAR5m loss seen in Q2 13. Management
pointed to increase in cost of production as a
result of increase in raw material price for
some projects as the main reason for the
weaker performance. Furthermore no
dividends from associates were seen in Q2 14
compared to SAR6m in Q2 13.
On 4 May 2014, APC management
announced that the group won a SAR46m
contract for supplying 258km of welded steel
pipes to Saudi Aramco. The financial impact
of this project will be seen in Q3 2014
according to management.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Not Rated
Financial statements
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
275
50
-2
9
-18
1
1
0
-7
-7
680
42
6
2
-25
-19
-19
0
-25
-25
383
16
32
-17
-25
21
21
0
10
10
103
-6
-6
0
-111
97
-57
-14
-14
0
57
-71
-135
-10
-10
0
143
-144
98
-5
163
0
-232
94
0
513
649
21
1,306
51
515
494
733
1,285
0
489
747
7
1,377
70
572
565
727
1,370
0
467
880
6
1,463
38
715
709
701
1,458
0
442
792
35
1,234
29
483
447
711
1,199
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
5.7
43.7
1.1
5.3
29.6
1.1
2.2
34.8
1.0
3.8
91.4
1.2
1.4
9.5
0.0
1.4
-7.0
0.0
1.5
-14.1
0.0
1.4
9.2
0.0
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Year to
(SAR) 25.51
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
2200.SE
272
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Bloomberg (Equity)
APCO AB
Market cap (SARm)
1,020
Sector
Building Products
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
2012
10
2013
Arabian Pipes
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Source: HSBC
1
7
.
2
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
-41.7
-58.8
-111.9
-85.7
-114.0
7.4
47.9
-250.9
-68.1
90.8
147.5
-14.9
-78.3
-43.6
-62.0
0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
13.1
-2.2
4.1
0.7
14.7
0.2
0.2
-0.5
-0.9
-0.5
18.1
3.1
2.8
0.8
11.4
-0.1
0.5
-1.7
-3.6
-1.7
6.2
0.3
1.7
1.0
16.8
-0.2
0.3
0.8
1.4
0.8
4.2
-4.5
0.6
0.6
27.9
0.2
-0.09
-0.09
0.00
18.33
-0.17
-0.17
0.00
18.16
-0.63
-0.63
0.00
17.53
0.24
0.24
0.00
17.77
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
125
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
126
Financials
During FY2013 MESC reported a drop of 1.5% in
net income which came in at SAR30.6m. During
the year the company saw 9.3% drop in gross
profits and 4.5% drop in operating profits.
Management pointed to drop in sales volumes on
the back of postponement of some orders from
EPC (Engineering, procurement and construction)
customers for the weaker gross profits during
the year.
Recent news
On 21 Jul 2014, MESC announced Q2 14
results. Net income for the quarter came in at
SAR10m compared to SAR0.02m in Q2 13.
According to management, increased sales
volumes as well as better margins were key
drivers of net income growth. Operating
income for the quarter came in at SAR17.85m
compared to SAR7.69m in Q2 13.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
1,139
31
-51
-20
-39
-161
-161
0
-120
-120
991
101
-46
55
-41
8
8
0
31
31
931
95
-45
50
-41
24
24
-7
30
30
108
-63
-63
-42
29
46
-61
-37
-39
0
87
-97
97
-30
-30
0
-34
67
-51
-29
15
0
-187
-73
75
608
687
54
1,417
154
809
756
367
1,364
4
609
734
48
1,382
189
896
848
243
1,335
3
594
706
70
1,354
179
862
792
282
1,284
0
546
781
37
1,400
198
675
638
504
1,363
Year to
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
1.6
32.3
1.2
1.4
53.0
1.2
2.1
4.6
4.2
3.2
-9.9
0.0
1.6
16.1
1.3
31.8
2.7
6.8
0.0
1.7
17.2
1.2
32.5
2.0
-8.1
0.0
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR) 16.48
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
2370.SE
264
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Bloomberg (Equity)
MESC AB
Market cap (SARm)
989
Sector
Building Products
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
2012
5
2013
MESC
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Source: HSBC
1
7
.
2
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
-0.5
-66.9
-95.1
10.7
-39.0
-13.1
228.5
-6.0
-6.1
-9.9
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
-2.2
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
0.8
-7.0
-25.9
-6.7
4.9
0.6
1.6
2.1
15.0
0.1
0.9
-9.0
-49.5
-8.7
2.7
-1.8
0.8
3.5
27.6
-0.1
0.8
2.4
11.0
2.3
10.2
5.6
2.4
2.8
7.9
0.1
0.7
2.2
6.0
2.2
10.2
5.3
2.3
1.3
6.7
-0.1
-1.58
-1.58
0.69
7.90
-2.00
-2.00
0.00
5.22
0.52
0.52
0.00
6.06
0.51
0.51
0.00
8.40
127
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
During 2013, Saudi Cable Co reported 9% drop in
sales revenues. Losses widened and the company
reported a net loss of SAR229m in 2013
compared to SAR156m in 2012. Management
pointed to inadequate funding which was leading
to material disruption in the groups operations for
the weaker numbers.
128
Recent news
On 17 Jul 2014, SCC announced Q2 14
results. Net loss for the quarter came in at
SAR51m compared to SAR132m in Q2 13.
Management highlighted lower operating
expenses and lower provisions for doubtful
debts as drivers of a better performance yoy.
On 2 Jul 2014, SCC management announced
that the company will initiate the process of
applying to the CMA for the capital increase
through a rights issue.
On 27 May 2014, SCC management
announced that a fire had broken out in the
Fiberoptic Cables factory in Jeddah Industrial
City, Phase 4. Management explained that the
fire has not had any significant effect on the
Fiberoptic Cables factory and that nobody
was hurt or injured.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
3,200
58
-74
-16
-72
1
1
0
5
5
2,688
-34
-86
-120
-110
-160
-160
-4
-156
-156
2,448
-102
-94
-196
-153
-209
-209
-29
-229
-229
-244
-165
-134
-57
450
-401
-271
-122
-121
-57
418
-355
515
-154
-146
0
-330
384
436
-62
-54
0
-389
398
101
857
2,366
124
3,643
473
1,817
1,693
1,184
3,518
132
874
2,786
93
4,107
712
2,236
2,142
1,009
4,014
144
920
2,369
132
3,774
807
1,906
1,773
915
3,642
154
826
1,748
122
3,212
906
1,517
1,395
674
3,090
Year to
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
1.3
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.7
40.6
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.8
-43.2
6.0
0.9
-41.5
6.0
1.0
38.1
0.0
1.4
39.6
0.0
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR) 12.44
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
2110.SE
252
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Bloomberg (Equity)
SCACO AB
Market cap (SARm)
945
Sector
Building Products
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
0
2012
0
2013
Saudi Cables
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Source: HSBC
1
7
.
2
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
-24.5
72.3
-16.0
-8.9
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
31.0
46.5
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
0.5
-2.5
-7.4
-2.4
-3.3
-8.5
-1.0
1.4
-27.6
-0.1
0.8
0.1
0.5
0.1
1.8
-0.5
0.8
2.1
37.2
-0.1
0.7
-4.3
-17.1
-4.1
-1.3
-4.5
-0.3
1.9
-52.1
0.3
0.8
-7.4
-34.0
-7.1
-4.2
-8.0
-0.7
2.1
-13.7
0.3
-1.16
-1.16
0.75
15.57
0.07
0.07
0.75
13.28
-2.06
-2.06
0.00
12.04
-3.01
-3.01
0.00
8.86
129
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Saudi Paper
Manufacturing Company
SPM AB, Price SAR42.7, Not Rated
Company description
Saudi Paper Manufacturing Company was
established in 1989. Its business activity is mainly
comprised of the manufacture of high quality
tissue paper and paper recycling.
In 1992, the first paper machine was installed to
produce 16,000 ton/year of jumbo tissue paper
rolls. In 1994, a de-inking plant was installed to
treat waste paper and turn it into raw material
suitable for tissue machine production. In 1995, a
second paper machine was installed to produce
24,000 ton/year. In 2001, a third 30,000 ton/year
paper machine was installed, bringing the total
production capacity of tissue paper to 70,000
ton/year. Saudi Recycling Co. was established in
2002 to collect all kinds of waste paper, partly for
in-house use in the de-inking plant and the rest is
sold to outside consumers. Saudi Converting Co.
was established in 2003 to produce several
consumer tissue paper products.
The company uses virgin pulp, blended-fibers,
and de-inked papers as raw materials.
Financials
Saudi Paper Manufacturing Company reported
3% growth in revenues during 2013. The group
gross margins were down 4.5pp while operating
margins were down 5.65pp on a y-o-y basis.
130
Recent news
On 21 Jul 2014, Saudi Paper Manufacturing
Company announced Q2 14 results. Net
income for the quarter was up by 29% mainly
due to one-off write down of non-usable raw
materials in the base period. Operating profit
for the period was down 12% due to drop in
gross margins and cut in selling prices of
converted tissue products.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
836
152
-40
112
-15
104
104
0
100
100
794
152
-50
102
-21
106
106
0
102
102
820
108
-49
59
-27
35
35
0
32
32
85
-110
-110
-38
62
-23
74
-118
-164
-45
167
-41
116
-62
-51
-53
44
54
140
-10
-9
-56
-162
133
13
855
614
36
1,507
72
821
785
595
1,471
28
952
715
67
1,732
69
989
922
651
1,665
25
946
839
123
1,848
89
1,033
909
701
1,725
23
907
830
70
1,765
129
930
860
677
1,694
Year to
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
3.5
15.1
1.9
15.7
3.2
-1.3
2.0
3.3
18.3
1.7
19.1
3.0
-2.3
2.3
3.5
18.3
1.6
18.8
2.7
2.8
2.7
3.4
25.8
1.6
60.6
2.8
6.8
2.9
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR) 42.67
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
2300.SE
512
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Bloomberg (Equity)
SPM AB
Market cap (SARm)
1,920
Sector
Building Products
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
2012
10
2013
Saudi Paper
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Source: HSBC
1
7
.
2
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
44.1
24.9
26.5
29.4
30.4
4.0
-17.8
-16.7
-17.3
-18.1
-5.0
0.2
-9.0
1.8
1.7
3.3
-29.2
-42.2
-66.7
-69.0
0.5
8.3
20.6
8.1
23.0
16.7
15.5
1.3
4.3
0.1
0.5
6.0
15.4
5.8
18.2
13.4
10.1
1.4
6.1
0.1
0.5
5.9
14.6
5.5
19.2
12.8
7.4
1.3
6.0
0.1
0.5
1.9
4.7
1.8
13.1
7.2
4.0
1.3
8.0
0.2
2.72
2.72
0.83
13.22
2.23
2.23
1.00
14.46
2.27
2.27
1.17
15.58
0.70
0.70
1.25
15.04
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
131
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
Aslak reported flat revenues in 2013 while gross
margins improved by 1.35pp on a y-o-y basis.
Operating margins of the group improved by
55bps y-o-y. The management pointed to strong
cost control for the better performance. During
2013, construction & building material sector
accounted for 81% of the revenues while civil
sector accounted to the rest.
132
Recent news
10 July 2014 Aslak management announced
Q2 14 results. Net income for the group
dropped by 11% y-o-y in Q2 14 implying
17.7% drop in H1 14. According to
management, a drop in sales and increases in
operating costs were the key causes of weaker
performance.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
855
121
-15
106
0
107
107
0
107
107
1,005
133
-19
115
0
115
115
0
115
115
1,001
138
-18
120
0
121
121
0
121
121
Year to
121
-27
-24
-56
-2
94
80
-26
-25
-49
0
54
72
-17
-17
-73
0
55
123
-32
-31
-49
0
91
0
109
275
74
384
54
0
-74
329
311
0
119
299
79
418
37
0
-79
378
339
0
118
316
61
434
19
0
-61
411
373
0
131
386
104
517
41
0
-104
473
413
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
3.7
15.1
6.7
18.9
4.2
4.3
2.6
2.4
17.3
6.2
20.5
5.8
2.5
2.2
2.1
15.6
5.6
19.0
5.3
2.5
3.3
2.1
15.1
5.0
18.0
4.6
4.2
2.2
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR) 49.90
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
1301.SE
584
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Bloomberg (Equity)
ASLAK AB
Market cap (SARm)
2,189
Sector
Building Products
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
2012
10
2013
Aslak
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Source: HSBC
1
7
.
2
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
36.9
23.1
25.6
24.6
24.6
49.9
-12.7
-9.3
-7.6
-7.6
17.6
10.4
8.4
7.9
7.9
-0.4
3.6
4.5
5.2
5.2
1.8
37.2
35.2
30.1
24.3
20.5
2.5
31.6
28.3
25.6
14.1
12.4
2.7
31.0
28.0
26.6
13.3
11.4
2.4
29.3
25.7
23.5
13.8
12.0
-0.2
-0.5
-1.6
-0.2
-0.7
-1.0
-0.1
-0.5
-1.2
-0.2
-0.8
-1.2
2.64
2.64
1.28
11.79
2.44
2.44
1.11
8.62
2.63
2.63
1.67
9.38
2.76
2.76
1.11
10.78
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
133
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
134
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Consumers
135
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Consumers
We see strong growth for Saudi consumers in coming years from
4,000
2,000
2009
Salary-Public
Growth-Public (rhs)
Source: HSBC estimates
136
2011
2012
Salary-Private
Growth-Private (rhs)
15
10
CEEMEA
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Saudi
Jan-14
6,000
20
Jul-13
8,000
Jan-13
10,000
Jul-12
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
12,000
Jan-12
14,000
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd.
+971 4 423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2009
Public
2011
Private
2012
Unemployment benefit
350
1,400
35
1,200
30
250
1,000
25
200
800
20
150
600
15
100
400
10
50
200
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Credit cards
Jun-11
Jun-10
Others
Dec-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Jun-08
Dec-07
Source: SAMA
Dec-08
300
0
2009
Loans
2010
2011
2012
2013
137
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Abdullah Al Othaim
Markets
AOTHAIM AB, Price SAR108.50,
Neutral, TP SAR82
Company description
Abdullah Al Othaim Markets is the second largest
food retailer in Saudi Arabia. Established in 1980,
the company has a major presence in the Central
and Eastern regions of the Kingdom, rather than
in the countrys most populated area, the Western
region. During 2013, Central region contributed
74%, while Eastern region contributed 12% of
group revenues. The company operates 121 stores
across Saudi Arabia as of end-2013, including
supermarkets, hypermarkets, corner stores and
wholesale markets, with more than 200,000 sqm
of selling space.
Investment thesis
Al Othaim has been seeing strong revenue growth
over the last few quarters, as the strong store
openings made in 2013 are now starting to
contribute to the groups top line. We estimate the
strong growth to continue in the medium term with
increasing penetration of modern retail in the
country of which Al Othaim is among the biggest
beneficiaries. In 2012, the companys top-line
growth had slowed down as the new store openings
were quite limited. However, in 2013-14, the growth
has picked up following a spate of openings.
138
Financials
Al Othaim reported more than 30% revenue
growth in Q2 2014, leading to more than 22%
revenue growth for the first half of the year.
Management has pointed to strong pre-buying for
Ramadan as the main reason for the strong
growth. The pre-buying period fell in Q2 during
2014 instead of Q3 which was the case in 2013.
However, as per our estimates, Ramadan buying
could lead to 8-10% incremental growth, which
still leaves c20% organic sales growth for the
group in Q2 2014, which implies it was among
the strongest quarter over the last three-year
period. In terms of operating margins for H1
2014, the group has seen only a 5bp improvement.
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+ 971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Valuation
We value Al-Othaim using a DCF model. The
WACC of 11% is derived from a risk-free rate
based on the 12-month SAIBOR rate of 1.8%; we
obtained the cost of debt by adding 220bp to the
12-month SAIBOR, arriving at 4%. Our cost of
equity, based on a combination of relative index
returns, CDS spread and inflation differential, is
12.7%. We use a long-term debt-to-equity ratio of
30%:70% and a beta of 1, obtained from
Bloomberg. Our DCF generates a 12-month target
price of SAR82.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5ppts above
and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%.
At the time we set our target price, it implied a
potential return within the Neutral band; therefore,
we rate the stock Neutral. Potential return equals
the percentage difference between the current share
price and the target price, including the forecast
dividend yield when indicated.
Risks
Key upside risks include:
Stronger-than-expected improvement in
operating margins
Strong growth in rental revenues
Key downside risks include:
139
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
4,580
263
-91
172
-8
197
197
-5
192
192
5,181
326
-111
216
-7
257
257
-7
250
250
5,687
369
-124
245
-3
292
292
-7
285
285
6,328
417
-139
279
-5
327
327
-8
319
319
Year to
338
-213
-201
-135
-73
106
424
-207
-207
-250
-91
206
386
-227
-227
-427
55
146
488
-253
-253
-478
4
222
15
711
567
110
2,000
887
258
148
807
296
15
808
795
279
2,368
1,053
336
57
932
286
15
911
790
224
2,512
1,125
336
112
1,003
366
15
1,025
849
220
2,734
1,268
336
116
1,083
402
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
0.9
16.4
14.6
25.4
6.1
2.5
2.8
0.8
12.8
14.7
19.5
5.2
5.0
5.1
0.7
11.4
11.5
17.1
4.9
3.6
8.8
0.7
10.0
10.3
15.3
4.5
5.5
9.8
Target price
(SAR)82.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)108.50
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
4001.SE
1,302
49
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
125
125
105
105
85
85
65
65
45
45
25
2012
2013
Abdullah AL Othaim Market
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
11.6
31.5
46.7
44.5
44.8
13.1
24.0
25.4
30.4
30.4
9.8
13.3
13.7
13.8
13.8
11.3
13.0
13.6
11.8
11.8
17.2
63.0
25.8
10.6
5.7
3.8
32.9
18.4
0.6
228.5
17.8
72.3
28.8
11.8
6.3
4.2
44.7
6.1
0.2
745.8
17.4
73.3
29.5
11.8
6.5
4.3
107.1
11.2
0.3
345.3
16.5
70.7
30.6
12.3
6.6
4.4
91.8
10.7
0.3
422.0
4.27
4.27
3.00
17.92
5.56
5.56
5.56
20.70
6.33
6.33
9.50
22.29
7.08
7.08
10.62
24.06
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
140
Bloomberg (Equity)
AOTHAIM AB
Market cap (SARm)
4,883
Enterprise value (SARm)
4,189
Sector
Food Products
Contact
+971 4 423 6932
Price relative
5
1
.
2
2014
25
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Almarai
ALMARAI AB, Price SAR73, Neutral,
TP SAR67
Company description
Almarai is the worlds largest integrated dairy
company, measured by the size of its herds. Dairy
products provide the largest part of its sales
turnover; it also sells poultry, bakery products and
fruit juices across all six GCC countries and
Egypt. As of 2013, c65% of Almarais sales came
from Saudi Arabia. We believe Almarai has core
strengths that are hard to replicate: a vast number
of livestock, an expansive distribution network
and a milk yield per cow above the developed
market average. Almarai is also the flagship brand
of the company, a widely known and reputable
name in the GCC region.
Investment thesis
Amongst the Saudi consumer stocks, Almarai is
the best understood, in our view. The investment
thesis is predicated on the dairy division as dairy
consumption per capita increases from its current
below-developed market levels and on the
companys ability to enter new product categories
and rapidly gain market share.
In the long term, we believe the poultry division
offers the most potential for the company; however,
for 2013, the poultry division reported a net loss of
SAR339m, while the other divisions of the company
reported strong improvements in terms of margins.
On 4 February 2014, Almarai announced the
completion of a third production line for its poultry
division. Following the completion of this
production line, the division can reach a capacity of
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Financials
Almarai reported 14% revenue growth for Q2
2014, with all divisions contributing to the
growth. The groups operating margins dropped
by 1.4ppt during the quarter as the poultry
division continues to be loss-making.
Management has pointed to a 17% increase in
staff strength, mainly due to the growing poultry
division, for the faster growth of expenses.
141
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation
Risks
142
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Neutral
Financial statements
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
11,219
3,127
-1,331
1,796
-254
1,542
1,542
-42
1,502
1,502
13,094
3,575
-1,503
2,072
-273
1,799
1,799
-48
1,753
1,753
15,145
4,295
-1,544
2,751
-253
2,498
2,498
-64
2,436
2,436
17,020
4,894
-1,561
3,333
-178
3,155
3,155
-78
3,079
3,079
2,586
-2,799
-3,302
-600
-76
-572
3,910
-3,072
-3,072
-876
382
605
3,845
-2,859
-2,859
-1,218
553
752
4,681
-2,848
-2,848
-1,540
90
1,600
1,310
16,984
6,296
1,829
26,062
3,545
10,372
8,543
11,019
19,217
1,310
18,728
6,403
1,276
27,913
4,180
10,372
9,096
12,237
20,986
1,310
20,487
6,938
1,186
30,207
4,937
10,372
9,186
13,776
22,613
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
4.6
16.7
2.9
29.2
4.3
-1.3
1.4
4.0
14.5
2.7
25.0
4.0
1.4
2.0
3.5
12.2
2.5
18.0
3.6
1.7
2.8
3.1
10.7
2.3
14.2
3.2
3.7
3.5
Target price
(SAR)67.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Year to
(SAR)73.00
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
2280.SE
11,678
54
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
79
74
69
64
59
54
49
44
39
34
29
2012
2013
2014
79
74
69
64
59
54
49
44
39
34
29
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
ALMARAI AB
Market cap (SARm)
43,800
Enterprise value (SARm)
51,864
Sector
Food Products
Contact
+971 4 423 6932
Price relative
1,310
15,028
5,471
1,811
23,280
2,037
9,972
8,161
10,142
17,961
Almarai
Year to
8
.
2
13.5
32.7
7.4
3.4
4.2
16.7
14.4
15.4
16.7
16.7
15.7
20.1
32.7
38.8
39.0
12.4
13.9
21.2
26.3
26.4
0.7
10.4
17.0
8.2
27.9
16.0
12.3
75.8
2.6
31.7
0.7
10.8
16.6
8.2
27.3
15.8
13.1
73.4
2.4
45.8
0.8
13.3
20.9
9.9
28.4
18.2
17.0
70.8
2.1
42.3
0.8
14.9
23.7
11.2
28.8
19.6
27.5
63.8
1.9
51.0
2.50
2.50
1.00
16.90
2.92
2.92
1.46
18.36
4.06
4.06
2.03
20.39
5.13
5.13
2.57
22.96
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
143
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
Over the last few quarters Alhokair has made a
host of acquisitions that have helped it grow at a
strong pace, both in Saudi and international
markets. Alhokair continued to report strong topline growth, with Q2 2014 seeing more than a
30% increase in revenues on a y-o-y basis.
For 2014e, we see a boost in Alhokairs growth,
mainly from its new acquisition of the Spanish
company Blanco. We believe that the companys
accelerated expansion plan in international markets
that has seen the proportion of selling space outside
Saudi increase to 30% by end-2013 from 10% in
March 2011 bodes well for its future growth.
Rental costs represent more than 10% of
Alhokairs sales, and we believe the increasing
rental rates in Saudi could start to put pressure on
the companys margins going forward. According
to JLL estimates, retail rental rates in Riyadh and
Jeddah have increased by c8% over the last year.
144
Financials
Alhokair reported 32% revenue growth in the
June ending first quarter, well above our estimate
of 14%. We believe that this was partly due to the
earlier-than-expected realisation of a contribution
from the Blanco acquisition and due to strong
sales from the start of Ramadan. We believe that
coming quarters will also see strong growth,
especially from the integration of Blanco as well
as organic growth in Saudi. Although the groups
revenue growth was strong in the June ending
quarter, gross margin and operating margin
dropped by 50bp and 90bp, respectively. We
believe that this is partly due to the low-margin
Blanco business. We estimate Blancos margins to
improve in coming years, which should support a
strong improvement in group margins.
Valuation
We value Alhokair using a DCF model. The
WACC of 10.1% is derived from a risk-free rate
based on the 12-month SAIBOR rate of 1.8%; we
obtained the cost of debt by adding 220bp to the
12-month SAIBOR, arriving at 4%. Our cost of
equity, based on a combination of relative index
returns, CDS spread and inflation differential, is
12.7%. We use a long-term debt-to-equity ratio of
30%:70% and a beta of 1, obtained from
Bloomberg. We assume a long-term growth rate
of 3%. Our DCF generates a 12-month target
price of SAR90.5.
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Risks
Key upside risks include:
Stronger-than-expected improvement in
margins, especially in international operations
Key downside risks include:
145
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
03/2013a
03/2014e
03/2015e
03/2016e
4,659
758
-174
584
-34
648
648
-31
618
618
5,748
1,034
-216
819
-49
830
830
-41
788
788
7,376
1,364
-255
1,109
-56
1,065
1,065
-85
980
980
8,213
1,544
-268
1,276
-62
1,226
1,226
-98
1,128
1,128
Year to
346
-494
-1,232
-420
783
-242
686
-460
-700
-788
154
226
837
-553
-565
-980
122
284
1,186
-575
-587
-1,128
-109
611
0
2,412
1,956
147
4,667
972
1,259
1,112
2,416
3,249
0
2,722
2,219
25
5,253
1,067
1,259
1,234
2,906
3,849
0
3,040
2,527
134
5,890
1,141
1,259
1,125
3,470
4,292
(SARm)
03/2013a
03/2014e
03/2015e
03/2016e
5.0
30.7
8.4
36.5
11.2
-1.1
1.9
4.1
22.6
7.2
28.6
9.3
1.0
3.5
3.2
17.2
6.1
23.0
7.8
1.3
4.3
2.8
15.1
5.4
20.0
6.5
2.7
5.0
Target price
(SAR)90.50
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)107.50
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
4240.SE
6,019
30
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
127
127
107
107
87
87
67
67
47
47
27
27
7
2012
2013
Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair
03/2013a
Source: HSBC
03/2014e
03/2015e
03/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
45.5
40.5
37.2
40.0
45.2
23.4
36.5
40.2
28.1
27.5
28.3
31.9
35.5
28.3
24.2
11.4
13.2
15.1
15.1
15.1
2.3
27.0
36.1
18.6
16.3
12.5
22.6
46.9
1.3
36.1
1.9
25.9
35.5
18.0
18.0
14.2
21.2
45.6
1.1
61.7
2.1
28.7
36.8
19.7
18.5
15.0
24.2
42.2
0.9
67.8
2.0
28.8
35.4
20.2
18.8
15.5
24.7
32.2
0.7
105.4
2.94
2.94
2.00
9.63
3.75
3.75
3.75
11.51
4.66
4.66
4.66
13.84
5.37
5.37
5.37
16.52
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
146
Bloomberg (Equity)
ALHOKAIR AB
Market cap (SARm)
22,575
Enterprise value (SARm)
23,387
Sector
Multiline Retail
Contact
+971 4 423 6932
Price relative
0
1,928
1,903
352
4,070
717
1,310
958
2,022
2,762
6
8
.
4
2014
7
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
Jarir was among the few Saudi Arabian consumer
companies to record top-line growth in 2013.We
believe the fact that Jarirs 13% top-line growth
came without a single new store opening implies
strong growth potential once the new store
openings resume in 2014. Management has
guided that the company will open seven new
stores in 2014 (three stores already opened in H1
2014). Although H1 2014 sales growth has been
pretty muted and came in at 4%, we believe that
in the second half we will see a strong pick-up, as
the newly opened stores start contributing to the
top line.
Furthermore, we believe that mere top-line growth
does not tell the whole story, as the groups net
income for H1 2014 was up by 10%. In H1 2014,
the company reported that the lower sales growth
was due to a decline in the sales of computers and
tablet PCs, with low growth in smartphones that
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Financials
Jarir reported a slowdown in revenue growth,
which came in at 2.5% in Q2 2014. However, the
groups operating margin improved by 20bp and
the gross margin improved by 50bp during the
quarter. For H1 2014, Jarir reported 4% revenue
growth, but again reported 80bp gross margin
expansion and 50bp operating margin expansion.
Management has pointed to a changing product
mix for the improving margins of the group. We
expect revenue growth to pick up in coming
quarters as newly opened stores start contributing
to the group top line, while margin expansion
should continue due to a changing product mix.
Valuation
We value Jarir using a DCF. The WACC of 9.3% is
derived from a risk-free rate based on the 12-month
SAIBOR rate of 1.8%; we obtain the cost of debt by
adding 220bp to the 12-month SAIBOR, arriving at
4%. Our market cost of equity, based on a
combination of relative index returns, CDS spread
and inflation differential, is 12.7%. We use a longterm debt-to-equity ratio of 30%:70% and a beta of
0.9, obtained from Bloomberg. We assume a longterm growth rate of 2.5%. This yields a 12-month
target price of SAR237.
147
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risks
Key upside risks include:
148
abc
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
5,242
669
-21
648
-7
673
673
-21
652
652
5,942
780
-27
753
-5
780
780
-25
755
755
6,887
912
-33
879
1
913
913
-29
884
884
7,665
1,041
-39
1,002
13
1,047
1,047
-33
1,014
1,014
Year to
587
-218
-143
-720
58
338
826
-91
-91
-614
-213
611
1,030
-27
-27
-795
-389
790
1,123
-33
-33
-912
-295
941
0
999
1,173
86
2,200
778
250
164
1,172
1,308
0
1,063
1,503
299
2,593
938
250
-49
1,405
1,328
0
1,057
2,052
688
3,138
1,213
250
-438
1,675
1,208
0
1,051
2,470
983
3,548
1,406
250
-733
1,893
1,132
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
3.5
27.2
13.9
27.6
15.4
1.9
4.0
3.0
23.0
13.5
23.8
12.8
3.4
3.4
2.6
19.3
14.5
20.4
10.7
4.4
4.4
2.3
16.6
15.3
17.8
9.5
5.2
5.1
Target price
(SAR)237.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Overweight
(SAR)200.00
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
4190.SE
4,799
43
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
226
226
206
206
186
186
166
166
146
146
126
126
106
106
86
86
66
2012
2013
Jarir Marketing Co
12/2013a
2014
66
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
JARIR AB
Market cap (SARm)
18,000
Enterprise value (SARm)
17,951
Sector
Multiline Retail
Contact
+971 4 423 6932
Price relative
1
8
.
5
13.1
14.6
15.3
14.4
-23.7
13.4
16.6
16.2
15.9
15.8
15.9
16.9
16.8
17.0
17.0
11.3
14.2
13.9
14.7
14.7
4.3
52.0
59.3
31.2
12.8
12.4
95.6
14.0
0.2
357.9
4.5
55.3
58.6
31.5
13.1
12.7
158.7
-3.5
-0.1
5.4
67.1
57.4
30.8
13.2
12.8
6.6
82.9
56.8
30.3
13.6
13.1
-26.2
-0.5
-38.7
-0.7
7.24
7.24
8.00
13.02
8.39
8.39
6.82
15.61
9.82
9.82
8.84
18.61
11.26
11.26
10.14
21.03
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
149
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
We see the following positive factors that should
help Herfy in the long term:
Market growth: Herfy should gain from the
strong growth in the Saudi fast food sector as
the mainly young population is more likely to
consume fast food.
Presence in markets outside major cities:
Our analysis shows that Herfy is one of the few
operators with a strong presence in markets
outside major cities in Saudi. We believe that
should help it to grow at a faster rate.
Store coverage and expansion: We believe
Herfy has one of the largest coverage in Saudi in
terms of outlets, which demonstrates its ability
to execute a large number of store openings.
150
Financials
Herfy reported revenue growth of 1.8% in Q2
2014, implying mere 2.6% growth in H1 2014.
This follows 13 new outlet openings for the year,
implying c7% growth in the number of outlets.
Although the groups revenue growth has been
weak, operating margins have seen robust
improvements so far in 2014. In H1 2014, the
operating margin improved by 60bp. We estimate
the operating margin for the group to see further
improvements in coming quarters as the level of
the groups backward integration increases.
Valuation
Our DCF-based valuation for Herfy points to a
12-month target price of SAR107.86, using a
WACC of 10.1%, an ERP of 12.7%, a RFR of
1.8% and a beta of 0.9.
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Risks
Key downside risks include:
151
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
849
237
-50
187
-2
196
196
-5
191
191
937
268
-57
211
-2
213
213
-5
208
208
1,051
302
-63
238
-2
241
241
-6
235
235
1,185
344
-72
272
-1
276
276
-7
269
269
Year to
205
-130
-111
-112
8
63
266
-120
-120
-125
-12
142
281
-150
-150
-141
10
127
331
-160
-160
-161
-10
167
0
568
223
57
790
126
63
6
601
607
0
631
218
44
848
126
38
-6
684
678
0
717
212
13
930
135
17
4
778
781
0
805
236
14
1,041
148
8
-6
885
879
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
5.7
20.4
8.0
25.2
8.0
1.3
2.3
5.1
18.0
7.1
23.2
7.1
2.9
2.6
4.6
16.0
6.2
20.6
6.2
2.6
2.9
4.1
14.0
5.5
18.0
5.5
3.5
3.3
Target price
(SAR)107.86
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)104.50
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
6002.SE
1,287
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
Year to
109
109
99
99
89
89
79
79
69
69
59
59
49
49
39
2012
2013
Source: HSBC
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
0.8
4.4
3.3
5.8
5.9
10.4
13.3
13.2
8.7
8.7
12.1
12.5
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
14.2
14.2
14.4
14.4
1.5
32.3
34.1
25.6
27.9
22.0
157.2
1.0
0.0
3399.0
1.5
32.1
32.4
25.4
28.6
22.5
147.4
-0.9
0.0
1.4
31.8
32.1
26.4
28.7
22.7
198.0
0.5
0.0
7108.9
1.4
32.0
32.3
27.3
29.1
23.0
413.5
-0.7
0.0
4.14
4.14
3.34
13.01
4.50
4.50
3.78
14.81
5.08
5.08
4.27
16.84
5.81
5.81
4.88
19.16
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
152
Bloomberg (Equity)
HERFY AB
Market cap (SARm)
4,828
Sector
Hotels Restaurants & Leisure
Contact
+971 4 423 6932
Price relative
4
4
.
5
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
39
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Savola
SAVOLA AB, Price SAR79.25,
Neutral, TP SAR74
Company description
Savola is one of the largest business
conglomerates in Saudi Arabia, with operations
spanning food production, retail, plastic
packaging and real estate, in addition to a host of
other strategic investments in various industries
across MENA and Central Asia.
The company has three core operations: edible
oils, sugar and retail. As of 2013, the foods
division accounted for more than 55% of the
companys revenues, while the retail arm (Panda)
contributed 41%. Panda operates 110
supermarkets, 52 hypermarkets and 23
convenience stores, with selling space of 547,000
sqm across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Lebanon
as of end-2013.
Investment thesis
In 2013, Savolas top-line growth has been slow,
mainly on the back of weak Egyptian operations and
a significant drop in revenue from the sugar division.
However, in terms of margins, the company has
been reporting strong improvement throughout the
year. We see strong growth potential for Savola in
the medium term. Our analysis on food retail formats
in the region clearly shows that hypermarkets are the
best format to be in Saudi and Savola with its strong
presence in the format should benefit from this.
Savola launched its new food retail format My
Panda, a small convenience store format, last year.
As of Q1 2014, the company has already opened
more than 50 such stores. We believe that Savolas
retail expansion will pick up pace as this new format
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Financials
Savola reported a strong improvement in sales
growth for Q2 2014, with revenue increasing by
13% in a y-o-y basis. The main reason for such a
strong growth was 25% revenue growth in the
retail division partly due to the shift in Ramadan.
The groups net profit growth was even stronger
at 32% due to lower finance charges and lower
minority interest outlay.
153
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation
Risks
154
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Neutral
Financial statements
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
26,365
3,226
-649
2,577
-254
2,455
2,455
-311
1,704
1,704
27,921
3,592
-720
2,872
-342
2,530
2,530
-278
1,861
1,861
29,947
4,095
-733
3,362
-353
3,009
3,009
-331
2,264
2,264
31,545
4,369
-718
3,651
-363
3,288
3,288
-362
2,491
2,491
642
-1,039
342
-1,068
-82
481
2,485
-838
-242
-1,117
-690
2,299
2,338
-599
146
-1,585
-546
2,627
2,541
-631
254
-1,744
-689
3,022
1,324
6,503
10,940
3,011
27,149
5,303
9,395
6,383
10,493
10,452
1,324
6,368
12,234
3,822
28,805
5,602
9,659
5,837
11,173
10,503
1,324
6,281
13,479
4,752
30,552
5,925
9,901
5,149
11,920
10,407
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
1.6
12.8
4.0
24.8
4.3
1.4
2.5
1.4
11.2
3.9
22.7
4.0
6.8
2.6
1.3
9.6
3.7
18.7
3.8
7.9
3.7
1.2
8.7
3.7
17.0
3.6
9.2
4.1
Target price
(SAR)74.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Year to
(SAR)79.25
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
2050.SE
11,283
60
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
81
81
71
71
61
61
51
51
41
41
31
31
21
2012
2013
Savola
12/2013a
2014
21
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
SAVOLA AB
Market cap (SARm)
42,318
Enterprise value (SARm)
40,319
Sector
Food Products
Contact
+971 4 423 6932
Price relative
1,324
6,385
9,046
1,322
24,741
5,030
8,395
7,073
9,749
10,403
6
.
6
-3.7
7.6
5.1
18.6
21.6
5.9
11.3
11.4
3.1
9.2
7.3
14.0
17.1
18.9
21.7
5.3
6.7
8.6
9.3
10.0
2.6
22.3
18.9
9.7
12.2
9.8
12.7
64.5
2.2
9.1
2.7
24.5
18.4
9.9
12.9
10.3
10.5
52.8
1.8
38.9
2.9
28.6
20.9
10.7
13.7
11.2
11.6
44.2
1.4
40.1
3.0
31.1
21.6
10.9
13.8
11.6
12.0
35.8
1.2
49.4
3.19
3.19
2.00
18.26
3.49
3.49
2.09
19.65
4.24
4.24
2.97
20.92
4.66
4.66
3.27
22.32
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
155
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
Currently, the in-flight catering business generates
c76% of the companys sales with Skysales the
next major contributor at c10%. It should also be
noted that c70% of SACCs revenues are from
Saudia, which has c90% of the Saudi domestic
airline market in terms of passengers carried. As
the main caterer for Saudia, our positive
investment thesis for SACC is based on the
following factors:
Strong growth in air passenger traffic in
the MENA region: Over the last two years
the MENA region has seen the highest growth
in airline passenger traffic globally and
airlines continue to expect further growth as
load factors remain below the DM average.
Strong fleet expansion plans for Saudia:
Saudia plans to increase its fleet size to 164
airplanes by 2015 from 106 in 2012. This
implies a CAGR for the number of planes of
16% between 2012 and 2015, but seats
growth should be above a c19% CAGR
156
Financials
During Q2 2014, SACC reported strong revenue
growth of 16% with its in-flight catering division
reporting 14% growth and its business lounge
division reporting more than 30% growth. We
believe the group will continue to see such strong
growth rates in coming quarters. However, in
terms of margins, the group saw a significant
drop; operating margin in Q2 2014 dropped by
c4pp, mainly due to increases in general and
administrative costs.
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Valuation
Our DCF-based valuation for SACC produces a
12-month target price of SAR186 using a WACC
of 10.1%, an ERP of 12.7%, a RFR of 1.8% and a
beta of 0.9.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5ppts above
and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%. At
the time we set our target price, it implied a potential
return above the Neutral band; therefore, we rate the
stock Overweight. Potential return equals the
percentage difference between the current share
price and the target price, including the forecast
dividend yield when indicated.
Risks
Key downside risks include:
157
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
1,867
561
-15
546
0
569
569
-46
523
523
2,123
644
-18
627
0
637
637
-57
579
579
2,608
799
-22
777
0
787
787
-71
717
717
2,911
894
-24
870
0
880
880
-79
801
801
Year to
500
-24
-24
-451
129
408
656
-32
-32
-509
-115
557
701
-39
-39
-630
-32
581
869
-44
-44
-704
-121
736
0
238
1,451
893
1,689
527
0
-893
1,159
268
0
252
1,595
1,008
1,848
559
0
-1,008
1,286
281
0
270
1,768
1,040
2,038
591
0
-1,040
1,443
406
0
289
1,953
1,161
2,243
620
0
-1,161
1,619
461
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
8.0
26.7
55.9
30.4
13.7
2.6
2.8
7.0
23.1
53.0
27.4
12.4
3.5
3.2
5.7
18.6
36.5
22.2
11.0
3.7
4.0
5.1
16.5
31.9
19.8
9.8
4.6
4.4
Target price
(SAR)186.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Overweight
(SAR)193.75
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
6004.SE
4,236
30
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
203
203
183
183
163
163
143
143
123
123
103
103
83
83
63
63
43
2012
2013
Saudi Airlines Catering
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
10.7
7.4
7.7
16.9
18.4
13.7
14.8
14.8
11.8
10.8
22.8
24.0
24.0
23.7
23.7
11.6
11.9
11.9
11.7
11.7
12.1
325.0
47.1
32.2
30.1
29.2
7.7
207.8
47.4
32.8
30.4
29.5
7.6
205.9
52.5
36.9
30.6
29.8
6.7
182.4
52.3
37.4
30.7
29.9
-77.1
-1.6
-78.4
-1.6
-72.0
-1.3
-71.7
-1.3
6.38
6.38
5.50
14.13
7.07
7.07
6.21
15.68
8.74
8.74
7.68
17.60
9.76
9.76
8.58
19.75
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
158
Bloomberg (Equity)
CATERING AB
Market cap (SARm)
15,888
Enterprise value (SARm)
14,879
Sector
Commercial Services
Contact
+971 4 423 6932
Price relative
4
.
0
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
43
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Recent news
On 15 July 2014, Al Khaleej reported Q2
2014 results. Net income for the group grew
by 17% during the quarter, implying 29%
growth during the first half of the year.
Operating profit for the quarter was up by
13.5%. Management pointed to increased
sales in the corporate, education and call
centre divisions for the strong performance.
Financials
Al Khaleej reported 16% revenue growth during
2013, with divisions like information technology
seeing strong growth. The English training
division contributed 31% of revenue, while the
information technology division contributed 28%
of revenue during the year. The groups operating
margin improved by 85bp during the year, leading
to 17% net income growth.
159
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
515
83
-22
60
-5
59
59
0
53
53
574
90
-18
72
-7
73
73
0
67
67
664
107
-18
89
-7
85
85
0
79
79
Year to
48
-25
-25
-8
-10
23
65
-57
-53
-8
15
24
78
-74
-91
-10
25
4
60
-125
-123
-13
66
-63
17
247
211
33
481
65
110
77
264
447
35
265
239
26
541
61
134
108
309
514
36
321
264
25
644
74
161
136
365
619
36
427
316
28
800
81
243
215
430
772
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
6.9
37.1
6.2
46.8
9.3
0.2
0.4
6.1
34.7
5.4
43.3
7.9
1.0
0.4
4.7
29.4
4.7
37.3
7.2
0.4
0.4
4.2
27.1
3.9
29.2
6.0
0.1
0.5
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR)65.54
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
4290.SE
612
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
70
70
65
65
60
55
60
55
50
45
50
45
40
35
40
35
30
30
25
20
2012
Source: HSBC
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
12.9
6.8
9.1
9.0
8.1
30.2
18.1
23.6
20.6
15.9
11.4
8.4
18.9
23.5
28.1
15.8
19.3
23.8
15.5
16.9
0.9
10.2
17.2
9.5
17.7
12.3
27.7
0.3
1.1
0.6
1.0
10.2
17.1
9.7
16.1
11.7
15.9
0.3
1.3
0.6
0.9
10.9
18.5
10.5
15.6
12.5
13.5
0.4
1.5
0.6
0.9
10.2
18.3
9.9
16.1
13.4
15.8
0.5
2.0
0.3
1.51
1.51
0.25
8.26
1.76
1.76
0.25
9.12
2.25
2.25
0.33
10.99
2.63
2.63
0.42
12.29
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
160
Bloomberg (Equity)
ALKHLEEJ AB
Market cap (SARm)
2,294
Sector Diversified Consumer Services
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
25
20
2013
Al Khaleej
1
7
.
2
2014
Rel to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
Al Tayyar reported top-line growth of 16% in
FY13, mainly on the back of growing revenues
from ticketing services. The companys operating
profit grew by 20% and net profit was up by 25%
in FY13.
In terms of divisional performance, as of 2013,
ticketing services contributed 53% in terms of
sales. The second major source of revenue for the
company was from tourism-related services,
which contributed 24% in terms of revenues.
However, in terms of gross profits, ticketing
services accounted for 70% of the total groups
gross profits.
Recent news
On 17 July 2014, Al Tayyar announced Q2
2014 results. Group sales grew by 18% during
the quarter, which led to operating income
growth of 16.8% and net income growth of
8.3%. For H1 2014, net revenue growth was
at 17% with net income growth at 16%
partly due to gains from the sale of property
and equipment.
On 28 May 2014, Al Tayyar announced that it
has signed an acquisition agreement with
CTM that allows it to acquire 100% of the
shares of the British company. The value of
the deal amounted to SAR85m. CTM is
considered one of the top ranking travel and
tourism companies in the UK, operating in the
field of travel and tourism services, as well as
railway tickets beside air transport and ground
services. It also operates in the field of
organising conferences, as well as hotel
accommodation services in Britain, Ireland
and Scotland. Sales of CTM in 2013
amounted to SAR825m.
161
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
4,607
692
-34
658
0
651
651
-39
612
612
5,390
815
-40
775
-29
796
796
-41
755
755
6,260
940
-45
895
-13
986
986
-43
943
943
839
-70
163
-320
-428
769
624
-94
-85
-493
-17
530
1,224
-182
-481
-307
-95
1,042
2,157
-144
-370
-440
26
2,014
136
450
1,367
380
2,198
893
117
-263
1,160
1,817
144
494
1,412
407
2,240
931
101
-307
1,170
1,833
147
630
2,034
747
3,250
1,471
6
-741
1,723
2,503
139
1,602
3,215
2,117
5,429
2,940
506
-1,611
2,215
3,311
Year to
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
4.7
32.2
9.9
31.6
15.3
3.9
2.0
3.9
26.0
9.8
25.6
15.3
2.7
3.1
3.3
22.1
7.2
20.8
10.0
5.3
2.0
2.9
19.1
5.4
16.6
7.6
10.3
2.8
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR) 130.71
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
1810.SE
5,228
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
2012
Source: HSBC
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
24.6
36.1
32.7
30.1
25.4
20.5
24.0
26.9
18.7
23.3
17.0
17.9
17.8
22.2
23.4
16.1
15.3
15.4
23.9
24.9
2.1
27.3
42.8
22.6
14.6
13.6
2.5
33.4
52.3
27.3
15.0
14.3
-0.2
-0.5
-3.2
-0.3
-0.4
-2.0
2.2
30.2
43.8
23.2
15.1
14.4
27.6
-0.4
-0.9
-1.7
1.9
28.5
42.6
17.4
15.0
14.3
72.3
-0.7
-1.7
-1.3
4.14
4.14
2.66
8.53
5.10
5.10
4.11
8.56
6.29
6.29
2.56
13.14
7.86
7.86
3.67
17.30
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
162
Bloomberg (Equity)
ALTAYYAR AB
Market cap (SARm)
19,607
Sector
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
2013
Al Tayyar
1
7
.
2
2014
Rel to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Recent news
On 17 July 2014, UITC announced Q2 2014
results. Net income for the quarter was up by
11% with operating income being up by 19%.
The increase in revenues from long-term
rentals along with the gain on sales of
vehicles was pointed out as the main reason
for the strong growth. For H1 2014, net
income was up by 11% and operating income
was up by 30%.
Financials
UITC reported top-line growth of 15% in 2013,
mainly on the back of growing revenues from
long-term rentals of vehicles and trucks.
According to management, the company also
benefited from high demand for short-term car
rental services in the Umrah season in Ramadan
and the summer, mainly in the Western region.
163
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
508
293
-260
34
-9
101
101
0
101
101
582
350
-330
20
-9
125
125
0
126
126
668
435
-487
52
-13
155
155
0
150
150
Year to
190
-386
-213
-37
46
-196
350
-511
-332
-41
42
-161
334
-571
-403
-46
109
-238
411
-628
-436
-51
90
-217
0
706
129
11
834
84
271
260
461
823
0
850
153
27
1,003
153
313
286
517
976
0
1,003
115
17
1,146
106
423
405
593
1,129
0
1,153
161
27
1,342
111
513
486
688
1,315
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
8.2
14.2
4.5
25.5
5.2
-6.1
1.5
7.3
12.6
3.8
24.0
4.7
-5.0
1.7
6.4
10.6
3.3
19.2
4.1
-7.4
1.9
5.5
8.5
2.8
16.1
4.7
-6.7
2.1
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR) 79.14
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
4260.SE
858
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
8.9
-0.9
56.7
11.3
10.5
12.7
12.8
-24.1
3.0
6.2
14.6
19.3
-41.2
24.4
24.9
14.8
24.4
162.5
23.3
19.4
0.5
11.5
20.6
11.4
57.7
9.8
25.8
0.6
1.0
0.7
0.5
10.3
19.5
10.0
57.7
6.6
30.9
0.6
1.0
1.2
0.5
11.1
21.2
11.0
60.1
3.4
36.9
0.7
1.2
0.8
0.5
11.4
21.8
11.2
65.1
7.7
34.3
0.7
1.1
0.8
3.11
3.11
1.20
15.15
3.30
3.30
1.35
17.00
4.13
4.13
1.50
19.46
4.93
4.93
1.68
16.92
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
164
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
BUDGET AB
3,218
Road & Rail
Not Rated
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
2012
Source: HSBC
1
7
.
2
Price relative
20
2013
Budget
Year to
Not Rated
2014
Rel to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
eXtra reported top-line growth of 12.4% in FY13
as the company significantly increased its store
count from 29 to 37 during the year. However, in
Q4 2013, the company saw a 5.1% drop in net
sales revenue on a y-o-y basis as it had hosted the
yearly mega sale event in the third quarter of
2013 instead of the fourth quarter, when it
generally hosts the event.
Recent news
On 17 July 2014, eXtras management
announced Q2 2014 results. Net revenue
growth for the quarter was 1.3%, mainly due
to a high base effect, as Q2 2013 included 10year anniversary promotion sales. Excluding
the promotional sales, net revenue growth for
Q2 2014 was 27.6%. Net income for Q2 2014
was up by 1%, while net income growth in
H1 2014 was 4.4%.The group added one new
store during the quarter, taking the total store
number to 38.
165
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
2,366
62
-22
40
-1
135
135
0
132
132
3,013
190
-28
161
0
163
163
0
159
159
3,383
206
-38
168
-1
172
172
0
167
167
Year to
7
-115
-113
0
-70
-109
129
-72
-73
0
-18
56
153
-109
-109
-60
0
44
153
-107
-107
-98
40
46
0
267
322
30
589
304
21
-9
243
559
0
317
457
65
775
370
0
-65
375
710
0
390
556
48
946
439
0
-48
473
898
0
459
594
35
1,053
486
40
5
488
1,018
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
2.2
81.5
6.7
38.1
15.3
-2.9
0.0
1.6
60.1
5.3
28.2
9.9
1.5
0.0
1.2
19.7
4.2
23.5
7.9
1.2
1.6
1.1
18.1
3.7
22.3
7.6
1.2
2.6
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR) 124.25
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
4003.SE
994
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
20.6
29.0
73.0
134.9
138.1
38.7
35.5
48.3
35.4
35.1
27.4
20.5
20.1
12.3
8.7
4.1
5.4
5.5
3.1
17.5
40.2
16.6
2.7
1.6
10.5
0.0
-0.2
-0.7
3.3
18.6
35.2
17.0
2.6
1.7
93.8
-0.2
-1.0
-2.0
3.4
17.7
33.6
16.8
6.3
5.4
3.3
16.4
34.3
15.9
6.1
5.0
-0.1
-0.3
-3.2
0.0
0.0
29.5
3.26
3.26
0.00
8.11
4.40
4.40
0.00
12.51
5.29
5.29
2.00
15.75
5.58
5.58
3.25
16.27
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
166
EXTRA AB
3,728
Specialty Retail
Not Rated
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
2012
Source: HSBC
12/2010a
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
Price relative
50
2013
Extra
1
7
.
2
2014
Rel to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
In F13 (ended 31 December 2013), the company
posted revenue growth of 9%, slowing its pace
from a CAGR of 15% in 2009-12. However, gross
margins improved by nearly 2pp from 20% to
22%. Sub-leases accounted for 10% of SAMCOs
revenues in FY13.
As of Q2 2014 (ended 30 June 2014), the
company posted revenue growth of 23% y-o-y,
partly due to pre-buying for Ramadan, as well as
due to three new store openings.
Recent news
On 10 July 2014, SAMCO announced plans
to increase its capital from SAR250m to
SAR350m via capitalisation of its retained
earnings. The company plans to issue bonus
shares to current shareholders at a rate of 2:5.
On 22 May 2014, SAMCO announced the
opening of a branch in the city of Arar, in the
Northern region of Saudi, with an area of
3,524 m2.
On 1 May 2014, SAMCO announced that it
will cease Farm Superstore operations in
Lebanon, instead leasing the space on a 10year contract for an annual amount of
SAR1.88m.
167
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financial statements
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
1,253
86
-24
62
0
70
70
-1
67
67
1,496
99
-27
72
-4
82
82
-1
79
79
1,626
124
-29
94
-5
99
99
0
95
95
Year to
60
-66
-66
0
0
-1
129
-77
-82
0
-39
53
163
-98
-88
-11
-49
66
20
-64
-54
0
35
-44
7
396
318
17
724
158
247
229
287
707
6
448
308
20
765
193
208
188
348
744
5
517
362
38
886
293
159
120
414
848
4
547
377
35
929
304
193
158
392
894
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
3.2
40.7
4.5
57.3
11.2
-0.2
0.0
2.6
37.1
4.3
48.3
9.2
1.6
0.0
2.1
32.3
3.8
40.8
7.8
2.0
0.3
2.0
26.0
3.6
33.8
8.2
-1.4
0.0
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR) 128.49
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
4006.SE
857
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
2012
Source: HSBC
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
10.9
22.1
16.5
24.0
23.8
25.7
9.4
11.0
21.2
18.7
19.4
14.8
16.2
17.8
18.3
8.7
24.5
30.0
20.1
20.8
1.4
7.9
19.5
7.7
7.9
5.6
52.3
0.8
2.9
0.3
1.7
8.9
19.1
8.7
6.9
5.0
208.2
0.5
2.2
0.7
1.8
9.3
19.0
8.9
6.6
4.8
24.5
0.3
1.2
1.4
1.8
10.6
24.3
10.2
7.6
5.8
26.8
0.4
1.3
0.1
2.24
2.24
0.00
11.49
2.66
2.66
0.00
13.91
3.15
3.15
0.42
16.56
3.81
3.81
0.00
15.69
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
168
Bloomberg (Equity)
SMARKETI AB
Market cap (SARm)
3,212
Sector
Food & Staples Retailing
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
2013
Farm Superstores
1
7
.
2
2014
Rel to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Halwani Brothers
HB AB, Price SAR82.80, Not Rated
Company description
Established in 1968, Halwani Brothers is engaged
in the production, marketing and distribution of
food products, mainly in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Halwani also exports its products to more than
32 countries around the world. In Saudi Arabia,
Halwani has a dominant market share in
five products.
Recent news
On 14 July 2014, Halwani reported Q2 2014
results. Net revenue growth for the quarter
came in at 15% with operating profit growing
at 16.6%. However, net income growth
slowed down to 5.5% due to higher corporate
tax expenses.
Financials
Halwani reported net revenue growth of 7.4% in
2013 with operating income growing by 10.8%.
Management pointed to the strong improvement
in operating cost control, which led to an
operating margin improvement of 40bp. Gross
margins of the group dropped 80bp during the
year. The company reported net income growth of
6% during the year.
169
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
814
124
-19
104
0
109
109
-20
81
81
892
143
-24
119
3
119
119
-23
87
87
958
157
-25
132
-1
131
131
-30
93
93
Year to
74
-73
-71
-29
0
1
114
-78
-77
-43
13
37
116
-48
-47
-57
16
68
101
-113
-111
-57
45
-12
0
209
444
117
653
117
0
-117
508
536
0
266
423
121
689
108
13
-108
538
568
0
288
457
144
745
124
29
-116
561
601
0
368
463
113
831
146
69
-44
581
717
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
3.2
20.1
4.3
29.4
4.7
0.0
1.2
2.9
18.8
4.1
29.4
4.4
1.5
1.8
2.6
16.3
3.9
27.2
4.2
2.9
2.4
2.4
14.8
3.2
25.6
4.1
-0.5
2.4
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR) 82.80
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
6001.SE
631
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
18.6
41.7
56.6
77.4
88.6
11.2
7.0
6.9
8.3
0.2
9.7
15.5
13.7
9.2
8.0
7.4
9.9
10.8
10.2
6.3
1.4
15.0
15.8
12.3
15.8
13.4
1.4
14.2
15.0
11.7
15.2
12.8
1.5
14.5
15.5
11.7
16.0
13.3
1.3
12.9
15.9
11.1
16.4
13.7
-0.2
-1.0
-0.6
-0.2
-0.9
-1.1
-0.2
-0.8
-1.0
-0.1
-0.3
-2.3
2.81
2.81
1.00
17.76
2.82
2.82
1.50
18.82
3.05
3.05
2.00
19.64
3.24
3.24
2.00
20.34
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
170
HB AB
2,366
Food Products
Not Rated
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
2012
Source: HSBC
12/2010a
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
Price relative
30
2013
Halwani
1
7
.
2
2014
Rel to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Recent news
On 17 July 2014, Sadafcos management
announced Q1 2014 (ending June 2014)
results. Net income for the quarter grew by
2.4% with operating income growing by 3%.
Management pointed to slow growth in sales
revenue for the weaker performance.
Financials
In FY14 (period ending March 2014), Sadafco
reported 0.2% top-line growth. The slow growth was
mainly due to non-supply of water by the
International Water Distribution Company (Tawzea)
for over a month between July and August 2013,
resulting in the loss of sale orders of SAR30m.
Sadafcos gross margins improved by 85bp y-o-y on
the back of a better product mix and improving
production efficiencies. The companys operating
margins also improved in FY14 by 50bp, while net
income grew by 4% on a y-o-y basis.
171
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
03/2011a
03/2012a
03/2013a
03/2014a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
1,336
195
-41
154
0
164
164
0
152
152
1,549
221
-46
176
0
179
179
0
164
164
1,553
241
-57
184
0
186
186
0
171
171
73
-68
-9
-49
0
5
56
-96
-245
-98
0
-40
169
-147
-71
-98
0
23
213
-135
-56
-98
0
78
0
268
806
338
1,074
272
0
-338
730
736
0
323
773
202
1,096
238
0
-202
783
894
0
422
680
128
1,103
174
0
-128
849
975
0
498
640
113
1,138
135
0
-113
922
1,025
Year to
(SARm)
03/2011a
03/2012a
03/2013a
03/2014a
3.1
21.1
4.7
27.3
4.9
0.1
1.4
2.6
17.9
3.9
23.7
4.6
-1.1
2.7
2.3
15.7
3.6
21.9
4.2
0.6
2.7
2.2
14.5
3.4
21.0
3.9
2.2
2.7
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR)110.80
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
2270.SE
960
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
03/2012a
03/2013a
03/2014a
10.9
14.8
-0.9
-33.3
-36.0
17.7
17.8
22.4
12.3
15.2
16.0
13.7
14.1
8.7
8.1
0.2
8.8
4.8
4.2
4.2
1.5
17.9
18.1
12.3
14.6
11.1
1.5
17.0
19.4
13.9
14.6
11.5
1.6
16.9
19.4
14.9
14.3
11.3
1.5
16.7
18.6
15.0
15.5
11.8
-0.5
-2.0
-0.2
-0.3
-1.0
-0.3
-0.2
-0.6
-1.3
-0.1
-0.5
-1.9
4.06
4.06
1.50
22.46
4.68
4.68
3.00
24.10
5.06
5.06
3.00
26.12
5.27
5.27
3.00
28.35
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
172
SADAFCO AB
3,601
Food Products
Not Rated
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
2012
Source: HSBC
03/2011a
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
Price relative
40
2013
SADAFCO
1
7
.
2
2014
Rel to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Saudi Automotive
Services Co.
SACO AB, Price SAR31.80, Not
Rated
Company description
SASCO was established in 1982. It owns and
operates gas stations, auto service centres,
highway motels and restaurants, as well
convenience stores inside cities and on highways.
In its petroleum retail segment, the company
operates 74 gas stations and 15 quick service
centres. Of the 89 sites, three are scheduled to
cease operations due to lacklustre performance
and 38 sites are under construction. In 2013, the
segment serviced 6.9m vehicles, or 37m
travellers, posting an increase of 9% y-o-y.
In its other segments, SASCO owns and operates 30
convenience stores under its SASCO Palm brand, 10
coffee shops under its Palm Caf brand, as well as
motels, restaurants and auto service centres in some
of its gas station across Saudi Arabia. The company
also owns a transportation fleet of 55 tankers and 61
trailers, servicing both SASCO branches as well as
non-affiliated customers.
Recent news
On 16 July 2014, SASCO announced the
distribution of six-month dividends to
shareholders in the amount of SAR33.75m, at
a DPS of SAR0.75, or 7.5% of book value.
On 25 June 2014, SASCO announced the
completion of the liquidation of its equities
portfolio, for a total amount of SAR194m.
The company aims to invest the proceeds into
its core activities in line with its strategic
goals and expansion plans.
Financials
In 2009-13, SASCO sales posted a CAGR of
18%, mainly driven by its petroleum retail
operations, which accounted for 89% of sales in
2013. The Central region accounted for 41% of
2013 sales, up from 39% in 2012, outgrowing
other regions of operations.
173
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
244
19
-14
5
0
41
41
0
40
40
345
21
-14
7
0
46
46
0
45
45
370
24
-16
8
-1
44
44
0
40
40
Year to
51
-113
-114
-23
0
-62
39
-107
-84
0
61
-63
84
-245
-229
0
89
-153
43
-97
-76
0
106
-54
0
280
108
59
587
72
0
-59
513
529
0
351
129
57
678
81
0
-57
544
621
0
573
170
91
933
86
150
59
694
843
0
624
247
131
1,085
97
256
125
729
955
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
7.3
73.3
2.9
39.7
2.8
-4.4
1.6
6.4
80.4
2.5
35.7
2.6
-4.8
0.0
4.5
74.3
1.8
31.8
2.1
-11.2
0.0
4.2
63.5
1.6
36.0
2.0
-3.7
0.0
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR)31.80
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
4050.SE
382
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
2012
Source: HSBC
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
11.8
21.2
39.5
6.2
14.3
14.5
-8.9
-50.7
8.8
11.3
41.4
8.3
38.5
14.1
12.5
7.1
16.9
16.5
-4.5
-11.7
0.4
6.8
7.0
6.1
10.0
5.0
0.4
6.5
7.4
5.9
7.9
2.1
0.4
5.3
6.5
4.8
6.1
2.1
-0.1
-2.8
-0.9
-0.1
-2.9
-0.7
0.1
2.8
1.4
0.4
4.2
5.5
3.7
6.6
2.3
25.8
0.2
5.1
0.3
0.80
0.80
0.50
11.39
0.89
0.89
0.00
12.10
1.00
1.00
0.00
15.42
0.88
0.88
0.00
16.19
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
174
Bloomberg (Equity)
SACO AB
Market cap (SARm)
1,431
Sector
Commercial Services
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
0
2013
Saudi Automotive Svs
1
7
.
2
2014
Rel to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
On 16 January 2014, Saudi Ceramic Co
announced Q4 2013 results. The companys net
income for the quarter grew by 11%, while
operational profit for the quarter remained more
or less flat. A lower zakat provision during the
quarter led to the growth in net income. For FY13,
the company reported net income growth of 25%
and operational profit growth of 28%.
Management pointed to higher production
volumes and an increase in sales for the growth in
the bottom line.
Recent news
On 14 July 2014, Saudi Ceramic Co
announced Q2 2014 results. Net income for
the quarter was up by 2%, implying 4%
growth for H1 2014. Operating income for the
quarter was down 12% with H1 2014
operating profits dropping by 7.5%.
175
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
1,221
365
-121
244
-17
239
239
0
232
232
1,447
387
-129
258
-16
261
261
0
248
248
1,601
472
-140
331
-12
322
322
0
309
309
180
-184
-172
-76
72
-5
355
-276
-286
-88
45
79
298
-286
-311
0
95
12
483
-376
-373
0
-30
107
0
1,259
622
39
1,935
118
775
736
1,004
1,896
0
1,415
793
64
2,269
253
820
756
1,147
2,205
0
1,572
893
57
2,546
285
904
846
1,306
2,488
0
1,806
922
42
2,806
350
874
832
1,521
2,764
Year to
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
5.6
18.8
3.2
23.7
5.2
-0.1
1.5
5.0
16.6
2.8
22.6
4.6
1.5
1.7
4.2
15.7
2.4
21.1
4.0
0.2
0.0
3.8
12.9
2.2
16.9
3.4
2.0
0.0
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR) 139.58
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
2040.SE
1,396
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
2012
Source: HSBC
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
12.7
14.3
13.0
13.1
11.9
13.1
12.9
9.7
5.4
5.2
18.5
6.1
5.8
9.3
6.7
10.6
21.9
28.4
23.4
25.0
0.6
11.6
22.0
11.4
29.9
20.6
36.3
0.7
2.3
0.2
0.6
10.5
20.2
10.2
29.8
20.0
21.3
0.7
2.1
0.5
0.6
9.9
19.0
9.7
26.7
17.8
23.7
0.6
2.2
0.4
0.6
11.2
20.3
11.0
29.5
20.7
38.8
0.5
1.8
0.6
5.88
5.88
2.04
26.77
6.19
6.19
2.36
30.58
6.60
6.60
0.00
34.82
8.25
8.25
0.00
40.56
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
176
Bloomberg (Equity)
SCERCO AB
Market cap (SARm)
5,234
Sector
Building Products
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
60
2013
Saudi Ceramics
1
7
.
2
2014
Rel to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Recent news
On 21 July 2014, Saudi Fisheries reiterated its
capex plans, announced in its prospectus, of
SAR116.6m, allocated out of the companys
IPO proceeds of SAR335.4m. The plans
include provisions for a farm and processing
plant for shrimp, additions to the distribution
network, as well as opening new outlets and
the maintenance of existing facilities.
On 17 April 2014, Saudi Fisheries announces
the receipt of lands from the Public
Investment Fund (PIF), for which additional
shares are to be issued to the PIF.
Financials
In FY13, Saudi Fisheries reported top-line growth
of 10%. However, in 2009-12, the companys
sales contracted at a compound annual rate of
16%. The company has been registering losses
since 2009, with cumulative losses at
SAR233.8m, or 44% of its capital as of FY13.
177
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
87
-13
-8
-21
-2
-22
-22
0
-22
-22
70
-26
-11
-36
-2
-34
-34
0
-40
-40
78
-33
-10
-43
-2
-43
-43
0
-49
-49
Year to
-26
-13
-13
0
39
-40
1
-7
-7
0
23
-6
-54
-43
-43
0
2
-97
-20
-13
-13
0
3
-33
0
122
74
2
197
31
48
46
109
195
0
121
415
355
536
42
71
-284
413
181
0
156
316
260
472
39
73
-187
351
212
0
159
276
231
436
47
76
-155
302
205
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
19.4
NM
9.7
NM
13.9
-1.9
0.0
21.9
NM
10.5
NM
13.9
-0.3
0.0
26.9
NM
8.9
NM
13.9
-4.7
0.0
24.4
NM
9.3
NM
13.9
-1.6
0.0
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR)38.28
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
6050.SE
547
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
-17.1
-9.8
-7.0
-4.3
-6.2
-11.6
12.5
-11.4
-18.8
-18.1
-18.7
98.8
71.0
59.8
81.2
10.2
29.1
18.8
23.8
22.8
0.5
-13.8
-24.7
-13.7
-11.7
-24.5
0.5
-12.2
-5.3
-4.1
-14.9
-24.5
0.3
-18.8
-11.4
-8.4
-36.5
-51.6
0.4
-4.0
-0.6
-0.7
22.0
0.0
-0.5
7.3
0.3
0.4
-23.9
-16.2
-11.2
-42.7
-55.5
-14.3
-0.5
4.7
0.1
-0.50
-0.50
0.00
2.74
-0.41
-0.41
0.00
2.74
-0.75
-0.75
0.00
2.74
-0.91
-0.91
0.00
2.74
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
178
SFICO AB
2,049
Food Products
Not Rated
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
2012
Source: HSBC
12/2010a
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
Price relative
10
2013
Saudi Fisheries
1
7
.
2
2014
Rel to Tadawul
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
In 2013 Shaker Co. reported 2% top-line growth,
which was relatively low compared to earlier
years, mainly due to increasing competition in the
sector. The companys operating margin for the
period saw a 2.75pp drop due to the increasing
cost of marketing in the wake of increasing
competition, although the gross margin improved
by 12bp y-o-y.
Recent news
On 22 July 2014, Shakers management
announced that Ibrahim Hussein Shaker
Projects and Maintenance Company, one of
its fully owned subsidiaries, has been
awarded a contract worth SAR38m by the
Ministry of Education to supply air
conditioning units to a number of its
associated schools located in several regions
across the Kingdom.
On 20 July 2014, Shaker announced Q2 2014
results. Net income for the quarter came in at
SAR382m compared to SAR75m in Q2 2013,
due to one-off gains, while operating income
for the quarter was down 11%.
179
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
1,566
239
-24
215
-11
206
206
-4
180
180
1,707
270
-30
240
-16
226
226
-6
188
188
1,741
226
-30
196
-19
178
178
-8
125
125
Year to
159
-96
-96
-105
57
63
-45
-73
-72
-123
237
-118
133
-40
-39
-140
62
93
88
-32
-38
0
-36
56
1
242
626
52
874
188
180
128
423
822
1
290
917
61
1,213
203
418
356
481
1,151
0
300
1,052
75
1,357
212
481
405
528
1,282
0
301
1,176
89
1,489
219
445
356
654
1,400
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
2.8
17.1
4.4
22.2
7.7
6.6
4.0
2.4
14.1
3.4
20.2
7.0
2.6
3.6
1.8
11.7
2.4
16.3
6.1
-4.8
4.2
1.6
10.3
2.2
15.7
5.6
3.8
4.8
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Not Rated
(SAR)83.96
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
1214.SE
648
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
8.7
38.0
39.1
39.1
28.6
15.8
20.7
18.3
18.1
9.6
35.5
21.3
19.0
13.0
24.1
9.0
13.0
11.7
10.1
4.1
1.6
20.9
34.6
20.1
16.4
15.3
73.2
0.2
0.4
3.2
1.4
17.7
34.3
16.6
17.0
15.6
61.2
0.3
0.6
1.2
1.4
15.7
37.5
14.9
15.3
13.7
20.9
0.7
1.5
-0.1
1.3
14.6
35.5
13.8
15.8
14.0
17.2
0.8
1.5
0.3
3.78
3.78
3.35
10.91
4.15
4.15
3.00
12.06
5.15
5.15
3.50
13.71
5.36
5.36
4.00
15.09
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
180
SHAKER AB
2,431
Distributors
Not Rated
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
2012
Source: HSBC
12/2010a
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
Price relative
40
2013
Shaker
1
7
.
2
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Healthcare
181
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Healthcare
The proportion of Saudi citizens in the 65+ age group is projected
9,000
7,500
6,000
60%
4,500
3,000
46%
20%
US
France
Germany
UK
Qatar
Kuwait
Abu Dhabi
UAE
Dubai
Bahrain
Saudi
Oman
30%
29%
28%
44%
42%
39%
27%
25%
23%
2025
2030
40%
1,500
182
47%
9%
0%
2010
2015
0-14
Source: UN data
2020
15-39
40-59
60+
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Hospital competitive
landscape
Admission rate
The admission rate is the ratio of inpatients to
outpatients in a hospital. Generally we find that
hospitals operating margins decrease as the
admission rate increases. Mouwasat has the
lowest admission rate among these three private
hospital operators, but it also has a high bed
occupancy rate, which we believe helps it achieve
comparatively higher margins along with low
staff costs due to its presence outside Riyadh.
Revenue streams
Generally hospitals have two main revenue
streams: inpatient and outpatient revenues. In
addition to this, they operate pharmacies and
some also provide operational and maintenance
support to other hospitals, which generates fixed
fee income that attracts lower margins. Dallah
generates around 90% of its revenues from
hospital operations (inpatient and outpatient), but
NMCC and Mouwasat obtain less than 80% of
their revenues from hospitals.
Pharmaceutical sector
In most MENA markets the contribution of the
government to healthcare spending is much lower
than in other regions. Therefore, the shift from
branded generics to plain generics would need to
be driven mostly by consumers rather than the
authorities, in our view. But in most MENA
countries brands have historically ensured a
certain quality of product and unless there are
alternate regulatory mechanisms to convey this
183
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Kuw ait
2%
Lebanon
6%
Saudi
24%
Source: IMS
184
15%
2012
2013
10%
5%
0%
Source: IMS
Kuwait
Jordan
Tunisia
Lebanon
Morocco
-5%
UAE
Egy pt
22%
Algeria
Algeria
21%
Egypt
UAE
9%
Saudi
Morocco
9%
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
Through its diversified segments and revenue
streams, we believe Astra is an attractive
collection of companies operating in what we
view as Saudi Arabia's most attractive segments.
The company's different holdings operate in the
healthcare, petrochemical, fertiliser and
infrastructure segments.
Tabuk Pharmaceuticals is the second largest local
pharmaceutical company in Saudi Arabia by market
share. The company also exports to different
regional markets exports accounted for 28% of
revenue in 2013. Tabuk Pharmaceuticals accounted
for over 85% of the group's net income in 2012
although it accounted for only 49% of revenue.
During 2013, Astras pharmaceutical division
reported 32% top-line growth. This was partly due
to a surge in bulk tenders, which are usually sold to
the government. We believe that the strong growth
in the pharmaceutical division will continue in
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Financials
During Q2 14, Astra reported net profit of
SAR3m, well below the SAR62m net profit seen
in Q2 13. The main reasons for the significantly
weak results include the write downs and plant
shutdowns in Iraqi steel operations.
185
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation
Risks
186
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
1,772
222
-48
174
-30
211
211
0
253
253
2,005
305
-56
249
-31
278
278
0
311
311
2,233
408
-57
351
-29
382
382
0
382
382
2,346
492
-58
434
-26
468
468
0
468
468
Year to
-27
-224
190
-130
-123
-276
265
-201
-201
-156
-160
5
378
-89
-89
-191
-133
229
385
-94
-94
-468
-100
231
46
1,329
2,274
197
3,651
834
936
739
1,881
2,617
46
1,474
2,404
216
3,927
1,095
795
579
2,037
2,613
46
1,507
2,608
349
4,163
1,140
795
446
2,228
2,671
46
1,542
2,851
450
4,441
1,419
795
345
2,228
2,571
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.4
19.3
1.6
14.0
1.9
-7.8
3.7
2.1
13.6
1.6
11.4
1.7
0.1
4.4
1.8
9.8
1.5
9.3
1.6
6.4
5.4
1.7
7.9
1.5
7.6
1.6
6.5
13.2
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)47.90
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
Target price
1212.SE
947
39
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
71
66
61
56
51
46
41
36
31
26
2012
2013
2014
71
66
61
56
51
46
41
36
31
26
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
ASTRA AB
Market cap (SARm)
3,550
Enterprise value (SARm)
4127
Sector
CONGLOMERATES
Contact
+971 4423 6932
Price relative
Year to
3
1
.
5
(SAR)63.00
18.4
-1.3
-6.1
-1.1
4.3
13.2
37.1
43.1
31.4
23.0
11.4
33.8
40.9
37.6
22.8
5.0
20.8
23.8
22.5
22.5
0.7
6.5
13.5
6.7
12.5
9.8
7.4
39.3
3.3
0.8
9.5
15.9
8.2
15.2
12.4
9.7
28.4
1.9
45.8
0.8
13.3
17.9
10.2
18.3
15.7
14.1
20.0
1.1
84.7
0.9
16.6
21.0
11.5
21.0
18.5
18.6
15.5
0.7
111.5
3.42
3.42
1.75
25.42
4.20
4.20
2.10
27.52
5.16
5.16
2.58
30.10
6.32
6.32
6.32
30.10
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
187
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Dallah Healthcare
DALLAH AB, Price SAR104, OW, TP:
SAR115
Company description
Founded in 1987, Dallah Healthcare owns and
operates a single hospital in north Riyadh while
also offering its management services to other
healthcare providers. The company is also in the
process of building a new 300-bed hospital in
west Riyadh. Furthermore, Dallah has a pharma
division which is responsible for the wholesale of
pharmaceutical, herbal and cosmetic products.
The company also has an operations management
division which currently manages two hospitals
via 5-year contracts, one of the contracts
operational and one strictly management. The
contracts are set to expire in November 2015 and
April 2016, respectively.
Investment thesis
During Q4 2013, Dallah opened its new paediatric
unit. This expansion increases the number of
operational beds by c20%, which should drive
strong top-line growth in the second half of
2014e, by our estimates. The company also plans
to open 65 new clinics by the end of 2014e,
implying more than a 40% increase in the number
of clinics operated, which we expect to lead to
strong growth for 2015e. We estimate Dallahs
hospital division to generate c20% top-line
growth during 2014-15e as new capacity comes
online. During H1 2013, margins dropped
significantly, mainly due to expansion costs.
Administrative costs as a percentage of sales
increased to 21% in H1 2013 compared to 12% in
188
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
We estimate Dallah to see more than 18% revenue
growth in 2014e and more than 20% revenue
growth in 2015e due to the new capacity
additions. The group has already added a new
paediatric wing which should start contributing to
the top-line and plans to add 65 new outpatient
clinics by end 2014, which we expect to drive
growth in 2015e.
Risks
Key downside risks include:
Valuation
We value Dallah using a DCF methodology. The
WACC of 9.2% is derived from a risk-free rate of
1.8% (SAIBOR rate for 12 months). We assume a
cost of debt of 4% while the market cost of equity is
based on a combination of relative index returns,
CDS spread (for five year sovereign Saudi Arabia
CDS) and inflation differential to arrive at 12.5%.
We use a terminal growth rate of 2.5% and a beta of
0.90 (based on historical Bloomberg beta).. This
yields a target price of SAR115.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5pp above
and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%. At
the time we set our target price it implied a potential
return above the Neutral band. Hence we have an
Overweight rating for Dallah. Potential return
equals the percentage difference between the current
share price and the target price, including the
forecast dividend yield when indicated.
189
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
750
176
-39
137
0
148
148
-11
137
137
886
212
-48
164
-3
171
171
-13
158
158
1,078
263
-57
206
-5
211
211
-16
195
195
1,215
288
-56
231
-5
236
236
-18
218
218
Year to
170
-421
-628
-71
526
-256
170
-152
-152
-71
59
45
204
-228
-228
-71
105
15
245
-36
-36
-71
-125
228
0
821
500
150
1,479
108
121
-29
1,190
1,063
0
920
493
91
1,571
118
121
30
1,272
1,204
0
1,090
491
15
1,740
133
150
135
1,396
1,433
0
1,070
671
140
1,900
146
150
10
1,543
1,455
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
6.3
27.0
4.5
35.9
4.1
-5.4
1.4
5.4
22.7
4.0
31.0
3.9
0.9
1.4
4.6
18.7
3.4
25.1
3.5
0.3
1.4
3.9
16.7
3.3
22.5
3.2
4.8
1.4
Target price
(SAR)115.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Overweight
(SAR)104.00
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
4004.SE
1,309
43
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
115
115
105
105
95
95
85
85
75
75
65
65
55
55
45
2012
2013
Dallah Healthcare
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
17.8
10.1
4.7
9.3
2.7
18.2
20.6
19.7
16.1
15.9
21.7
24.1
25.7
23.2
23.3
12.6
9.1
12.2
11.6
11.6
0.9
15.3
11.9
10.0
23.5
18.3
512.7
-2.4
-0.2
0.8
13.4
12.9
10.5
24.0
18.5
84.3
2.4
0.1
569.5
0.8
14.5
14.6
12.1
24.4
19.1
54.4
9.7
0.5
151.4
0.8
14.8
14.8
12.3
23.7
19.0
53.0
0.6
0.0
2450.0
2.90
2.90
1.50
25.21
3.36
3.36
1.50
26.94
4.14
4.14
1.50
29.58
4.62
4.62
1.50
32.70
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
190
Bloomberg (Equity)
DALLAH AB
Market cap (SARm)
4,909
Enterprise value (SARm)
4810
Sector
HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS
Contact
+971 4423 6932
Price relative
1
0
.
6
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
45
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Al Mouwasat Medical
Services Co
MOUWASAT AB, Price SAR108.25,
OW, TP: SAR126
Company description
Mouwasat is one of the largest hospital operators in
Saudi Arabia, currently operating four hospitals with
594 beds and 231 outpatient clinics. The group
currently does not have a presence in Riyadh but has
a strong presence in Eastern cities. Mouwasat has a
strong corporate client base with companies like
Saudi Aramco, Saudi Electricity Company and
SABIC utilizing its services.
Investment thesis
Our Overweight rating on Mouwasat is based on
the following:
We see strong growth potential in the Saudi
private healthcare sector due to factors
ranging from an ageing population to an
increasing number of people with insurance
coverage. Mouwasat is one of the largest
players in the sector and should benefit from
this, in our view
Mouwasat has a very strong expansion plan,
which could see the group more than double
its inpatient bed capacity by 2018e and
expand its outpatient clinics by more than
50% by 2018e
Mouwasat has been able to generate strong
organic growth from an increasing number of
patients as well as improving tariffs/case mix.
We see this trend continuing and
complementing the groups expansion plans
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Financials
During 2013, Mouwasat saw a slowdown in terms
of top-line growth as revenue grew by 13%
(slower compared to the 16% average growth seen
between 2010 and 2012). One of the main reasons
was the significant drop in outpatient revenue
growth (11% growth in 2013 vs. three-year
average growth of 23%). Although the company
has not pointed to any particular factors, we
believe the general slowdown in Q3 following the
crackdown on illegal labourers was likely one of
the reasons. Furthermore, over the last five years
the group has not added any new beds, implying
that all the growth we are seeing is purely organic.
We believe 2014/15e should see strong revenue
growth due to the improving claim per patient as
well as the opening of a new hospital in Riyadh.
We estimate 12% revenue growth in 2014e and
20% in 2015e as the new hospital matures.
191
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation
We value Mouwasat using a DCF methodology.
The WACC of 9.2% is derived from a risk-free
rate of 1.8% (SAIBOR rate for 12 months). We
assume a cost of debt of 4%, while the market
cost of equity is based on a combination of
relative index returns, CDS spread (for five year
sovereign Saudi Arabia CDS) and inflation
differential to arrive at 12.5%. The long-term beta
is Bloombergs adjusted beta for the stock of 0.90.
The DCF valuation yields our target price of
SAR126 per share.
Under the HSBC research model for stocks without
a volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5ppt above
and below the hurdle rate for Saudi Arabia of 9%.
Our target price of SAR126 implies a 16% potential
return, above the Neutral band, hence we reiterate
our Overweight rating. Potential return equals the
percentage difference between the current share
price and the target price, including the forecast
dividend yield when indicated.
192
Risks
Key downside risks include:
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
902
263
-40
222
-1
232
232
-14
201
201
1,014
289
-49
240
-8
241
241
-12
209
209
1,218
386
-80
306
-9
306
306
-15
267
267
1,417
445
-85
360
-9
361
361
-18
315
315
Year to
275
-221
-218
-75
60
36
260
-180
-180
-126
46
71
336
-150
-150
-160
-25
177
393
-142
-142
-189
-62
243
17
868
481
180
1,475
149
342
161
889
1,037
17
1,000
473
135
1,597
169
342
207
972
1,186
17
1,069
565
160
1,759
200
342
182
1,079
1,292
17
1,126
693
222
1,943
231
342
119
1,205
1,383
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
6.2
21.2
5.4
26.9
6.1
0.7
2.2
5.5
19.4
4.7
25.9
5.6
1.3
2.3
4.6
14.5
4.3
20.2
5.0
3.3
3.0
3.9
12.4
4.0
17.2
4.5
4.5
3.5
Target price
(SAR)126.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Overweight
(SAR)108.25
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
4002.SE
1,443
44
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
122
112
102
92
82
72
62
52
42
32
2012
2013
2014
122
112
102
92
82
72
62
52
42
32
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
MOUWASAT AB
Market cap (SARm)
5,413
Enterprise value (SARm)
5612
Sector
HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS
Contact
+971 4423 6932
Price relative
Year to
1
6
.
4
13.3
17.0
19.8
20.1
17.3
12.3
10.0
8.0
3.7
4.0
20.2
33.7
27.4
27.1
27.8
16.3
15.2
17.8
17.8
17.9
0.9
22.0
24.4
16.3
29.1
24.6
187.7
17.0
0.6
170.3
0.9
20.5
22.5
15.4
28.5
23.7
35.6
19.7
0.7
125.5
1.0
23.4
26.1
17.8
31.7
25.1
45.2
15.4
0.5
184.6
1.1
25.6
27.6
19.0
31.4
25.4
52.1
8.9
0.3
329.4
4.02
4.02
2.41
17.77
4.19
4.19
2.51
19.44
5.35
5.35
3.21
21.58
6.30
6.30
3.78
24.10
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
193
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
NMCCs hospitals were originally under
government control, which explains two things: that
both its hospitals are located in the southeast of
Riyadh, which is the older and perhaps less affluent
part of the city; and that its staff costs are higher than
those of the other two groups.
NMCC had strong revenue growth in the last few
quarters. However, in terms of margins we are
seeing slight pressure. We expect strong revenue
growth of 22% in 2014e due to the recent new
openings. NMCC added 208 inpatient beds
(paediatric beds and adult intensive care units)
during April 2014 along with 24 outpatient clinics.
We believe these additions will likely lead to strong
194
Financials
NMCC reported strong revenue growth during Q2
14, thanks to the new opening. The groups
operating profits grew by 39% while net income
grew by 40% during the quarter. For H1 14,
operating profit growth was a strong 16%. For the
full year 2014e we estimate more than 20%
revenue growth.
Valuation
We value NMCC using DCF methodology. The
WACC of 9.2% is derived from a risk-free rate of
1.8% (SAIBOR rate for 12 months). We assume a
cost of debt of 4%, and the market cost of equity
is based on a combination of relative index
returns, CDS spread (for five year sovereign
Saudi Arabia CDS) and inflation differential to
arrive at 12.5%. We use a terminal growth rate of
2.5% and a beta of 0.90 (based on historical beta
from Bloomberg). Our DCF model generates a
target price of SAR78.
Under our research model, for stocks without a
volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5pp above
and below the hurdle rate for Saudi stocks of 9%.
Our target price implies a potential return of 5%,
within the Neutral band; therefore, we are reiterating
our Neutral rating for NMCC. Potential return equals
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Risks
Key upside risks:
195
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
586
123
-31
92
0
100
100
-7
92
92
716
147
-32
115
0
123
123
-9
114
114
783
173
-41
132
0
140
140
-10
130
130
874
199
-43
156
0
164
164
-11
153
153
Year to
79
-130
-130
-65
-58
-74
111
-150
-150
-80
119
-47
150
-110
-110
-91
52
32
166
-70
-70
-107
11
88
0
558
512
186
1,071
171
87
-99
812
714
0
676
445
67
1,121
187
87
20
847
867
0
745
452
45
1,197
194
117
72
886
958
0
772
511
64
1,283
204
147
83
932
1,014
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
5.5
26.0
4.5
35.6
4.1
-2.2
2.0
4.6
22.5
3.8
28.8
3.9
-1.4
2.4
4.3
19.5
3.5
25.3
3.7
1.0
2.8
3.9
17.0
3.3
21.6
3.5
2.7
3.2
Target price
(SAR)78.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)73.50
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
4005.SE
879
30
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
133
123
113
103
93
83
73
63
53
43
33
2012
2013
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
11.7
-7.2
-12.4
-10.6
-12.3
22.1
19.8
25.8
23.6
23.7
9.3
17.4
14.6
13.6
13.9
11.7
14.9
17.9
16.9
17.3
0.9
13.3
13.0
9.9
21.0
15.6
0.9
13.5
13.8
10.4
20.6
16.1
0.9
13.5
15.1
11.3
22.1
16.9
0.9
14.7
16.8
12.3
22.7
17.8
-12.2
-0.8
2.4
0.1
544.9
8.1
0.4
208.1
8.9
0.4
201.3
2.06
2.06
1.45
18.11
2.55
2.55
1.79
18.87
2.91
2.91
2.04
19.75
3.41
3.41
2.39
20.77
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
196
Bloomberg (Equity)
CARE AB
Market cap (SARm)
3,296
Enterprise value (SARm)
3317
Sector
HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS
Contact
+971 4423 6932
Price relative
Year to
6
.
1
2014
133
123
113
103
93
83
73
63
53
43
33
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Saudi Pharmaceuticals
(SPIMACO)
SPIMACO AB, Price SAR47.80, N,
TP SAR47.08
Company description
Saudi Pharmaceutical (SPIMACO) is the leading
Saudi pharmaceutical company. It is involved in
the development, manufacture, distribution and
marketing of its own products as well as licensed
products of other international manufacturers.
The company was established in 1986 but only
began operations in 1990 with 6 products. In
2000, the company began operations in Algeria.
An important and distinctive advantage of
SPIMACO's strategy is its relationships with
multinational companies. Most of SPIMACO's
earlier deals were structured so that SPIMACO
manufactures products for multinationals. In
addition, SPIMACO would undertake the sales
and marketing, which meant dealing with the
Ministry of Health (MOH) and other government
institutions. SPIMACO actively markets most of
its registered products to all the various segments
in the market: MOH, private institutions and the
export market.
Today, the company has over 150 products,
controls around 14% of the Saudi pharmaceuticals
market and has three of the top ten selling
products by value.
Investment thesis
SPIMACO has been seeing robust gross margin
improvements over the last few quarters. We
believe this is a result of the companys continued
expansion into higher-margin export and private
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA Research
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Valuation
We value SPIMACOs core pharmaceutical
business using a DCF methodology with a WACC
of 10.9% derived from a risk-free rate of 1.8%
representing the 12-month SAIBOR rate, a cost of
debt derived from adding 220bps to the risk-free
rate, and a market cost of equity of 12.7% derived
from a combination of relative index returns, CDS
spread and inflation differential. The long-term
beta of 0.99 is derived from Bloombergs adjusted
beta and the debt/equity ratio is assumed to be
30:70. We value the investment holdings at book
value, which is below market valuation. This
yields an equity fair value of SAR47.08 per share.
197
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Risks
Key downside risks include:
198
abc
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
1,297
239
-28
211
-2
289
289
0
270
270
1,394
260
-29
231
0
346
346
0
324
324
1,501
301
-31
270
0
403
403
0
379
379
1,600
306
-34
272
0
400
400
0
375
375
Year to
163
-46
-59
-187
47
9
291
-56
-63
-243
-113
142
342
-60
-60
-303
-63
173
346
-64
-64
-338
-3
178
3
376
1,326
119
4,368
426
20
-99
3,758
1,160
6
407
1,524
232
4,601
449
20
-212
3,839
1,257
5
438
1,679
295
4,785
473
20
-275
3,915
1,354
5
469
1,769
298
4,906
497
20
-278
3,952
1,447
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.3
12.4
2.6
21.2
1.5
0.3
3.3
2.1
11.0
2.3
17.7
1.5
4.6
4.2
1.9
9.3
2.1
15.1
1.5
5.6
5.3
1.7
9.1
1.9
15.3
1.5
5.8
5.9
Target price
(SAR)47.08
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)47.80
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
2070.SE
1,529
Saudi Arabia
Raj Sinha
Bloomberg (Equity)
SPIMACO AB
Market cap (SARm)
5,736
Sector
HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS
Contact
+971 4423 6932
Price relative
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
2012
2013
Saudi Pharmaceutical
2014
20
2015
Source: HSBC
5
0
.
6
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
9.6
3.5
5.4
15.0
16.0
7.5
8.8
9.6
19.7
20.0
7.7
15.7
16.7
16.4
17.0
6.6
1.5
0.7
-0.6
-1.1
1.2
19.8
8.0
7.3
18.4
16.3
119.5
-2.6
-0.4
1.2
19.3
8.5
7.7
18.7
16.6
1.2
20.8
9.8
8.6
20.1
18.0
1.1
19.5
9.5
8.3
19.1
17.0
-5.5
-0.8
-6.9
-0.9
-6.9
-0.9
2.25
2.25
2.38
31.33
2.70
2.70
3.10
32.00
3.16
3.16
3.87
32.63
3.13
3.13
4.30
32.95
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
199
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
During 2013, Al Hammadi reported 14.6%
revenue growth due to strong growth in both
inpatient and outpatient revenues. Although the
number of inpatients in Al Hammadi hospital
dropped by 5% during the year, the sharp increase
in claim per patient helped boost revenue growth.
In terms of operating margins the group reported a
1.4pp improvement as general & administrative
expenses as a percentage of sales saw a significant
drop during the year.
200
Recent news
On 20 July, 2014, Al Hammadi reported Q2 14
results. During the quarter the group saw 18%
net income growth along with 24.5% operating
income growth. For the first half of 2014, the
group reported 16.6% net income growth along
with 22% operating income growth.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Not Rated
Financial statements
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
302
102
-14
88
-5
84
84
-4
80
80
331
105
-13
92
-2
92
92
-2
90
90
379
106
-14
92
-2
97
97
-3
94
94
434
126
-14
112
0
116
116
-4
112
112
102
0
0
-12
-99
92
105
0
0
-27
26
102
106
0
0
0
144
102
126
0
0
-95
389
121
0
317
174
21
491
37
0
-21
444
433
0
398
166
35
564
46
40
5
474
483
0
650
193
63
843
59
213
149
569
721
0
1,028
209
42
1,236
67
580
538
586
1,127
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
12.2
36.1
8.5
46.2
8.3
2.5
0.3
11.2
35.2
7.6
41.0
7.8
2.8
0.7
10.1
36.2
5.3
39.1
6.5
2.8
0.0
9.7
33.6
3.8
33.1
6.3
3.3
2.6
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Year to
(SAR)49.20
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
4007.SE
984
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Bloomberg (Equity)
ALHAMMAD AB
Market cap (SARm)
3,690
Sector
HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
51
51
46
46
41
41
36
36
31
2012
2013
Al Hammadi
2014
31
2015
Source: HSBC
1
.
6
(SAR)Not Rated
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
-2.7
3.3
8.6
1.9
4.5
9.7
3.4
4.9
9.5
12.6
14.5
0.8
0.2
5.3
4.8
14.6
18.7
21.4
19.6
18.3
0.7
18.7
19.4
15.6
33.7
29.1
19.0
-4.7
-0.2
0.7
19.7
19.6
17.0
31.8
27.9
65.2
1.0
0.0
2173.3
0.6
14.9
18.1
13.4
28.0
24.4
63.9
26.2
1.4
71.0
0.5
11.7
19.3
10.7
29.0
25.8
393.0
91.8
4.3
23.4
1.06
1.06
0.16
5.93
1.20
1.20
0.36
6.32
1.26
1.26
0.00
7.58
1.49
1.49
1.26
7.81
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
201
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
202
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Real Estate
203
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Real Estate
Saudi Government still driving the market
Long term fundamentals are still there, but how to play it?
Residential
The residential market in both Riyadh and Jeddah
is very undersupplied. We estimate that the
government needs to build 1m homes over the
next five years in order to meet demand.
Residential supply in Riyadh and Jeddah (in thousands of
units)
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
Riyadh
Completed
Source: JLL
204
Jeddah
Additions
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
600
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Office
The office market in Jeddah witnessed strong
demand in 2013, mostly driven by government
spending. We are also seeing more demand from
the private sector with international firms
expanding their business across Jeddah. Vacancy
for the overall market stood at 10% as of 1Q2014,
down from 30% levels in 2011. It is expected to
fall further in the short term, with no significant
new supply coming on. Office stock in the CBD
area is now 723,000sqm. As of the end of
1Q2014, supply is expected to increase 35%
through 2016 which we think will be absorbed.
Riyadh
Completed
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Source: JLL
2016
2,700
4,419
Apartments
32,900
37,133
2015
4,383
4,700
Villa
121,700
121,000
2014
Apartments
2013
Riyadh
Jeddah
Rentals (SAR per annum)
Riyadh
Jeddah
Villa
2012
Sale (SAR/sqm)
Jeddah
Additions
Jeddah
Riyadh
Retail
The retail market in Jeddah is doing well. Average
mall vacancy is around 7% and has fallen over the
past 6 months (as of the end of 1Q2014)
according to JLL. We do not expect any supply
shocks going forward and supply should be spread
out across the city, we do not expect this figure to
change much. According to JLL supply is
205
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
1Q2014
4Q2013
3Q2013
2Q2013
4Q2012
3Q2012
1Q2014
4Q2013
3Q2013
2Q2013
1Q2013
1Q2013
Jeddah
2016
2015
2014
2013
Hospitality
Jeddah
Additions
206
4Q2012
Riyadh
2012
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Riyadh
Completed
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
2013
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
2012
2010
2017
Jeddah
Additions
2009
Completed
2008
Riyadh
2016
2015
2014
2017
2016
2015
2014
2007
5,000
2006
10,000
2005
15,000
2004
20,000
2003
100%
300
80%
250
200
60%
150
40%
100
20%
50
0
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Jeddah ADR (USD)
Riy adh Occupancy (%)
207
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Dar Al Arkan
ALARKAN AB, Price SAR13.6,
Neutral, TP SAR14.0
Company description
Dar Al Arkan (DAAR) is one of the largest
property developers in Saudi Arabia and is based
in Riyadh. The company also has operations in
Jeddah and Makkah. DAAR is a developer,
although it derives most of its revenues ( more
than 90%) from land sales, with the rest coming
from the sale of residential units and rental
income. The company would like over time, to
derive more of its revenue from unit sales. Within
its property portfolio, its key focus is residential,
particularly villas.
Investment thesis
Our investment thesis for Dar Al Arkan is based
primarily on valuation and also we believe that
2013 has been the slowest period in terms of land
sales, a situation which should improve in
2H2014. Additionally, the balance sheet is very
strong, with net debt to equity of 22.7% as of the
end of 1Q14 and no major loan or bond
repayments in 2014.
The company has a book value per share of
SAR16.0. This is a very conservative valuation, in
our view, since all of its land is recorded at cost.
The average life of the land bank is around 3-4
years, and we estimate that we have seen around a
25% increase in land prices over the last 3 years
(implying something like a high-single digit
increase in the value of DAARs land). Given
this, we believe that, even with slow monetisation
208
Financials
Dar Al Arkan reported 2Q2014 earnings of
SAR121.3m, lower than our SAR236m estimate,
but 17% higher YoY (although 2Q2013 was a
weak quarter). Net profit was 48% lower QoQ on
the back of lower sales of developed properties, as
well as an increase in SG&A and finance charges
according to the company. Gross profit for
2Q2014 of SAR294.2m, was 14.7% lower than
our SAR345m estimate, and down 27% QoQ, on
the back of lower sales and lower gross margins
attributable to the geographical location of the
properties sold according to the company. Gross
profit in 2Q2014 was 41% higher YoY but this is
from a lower base as 2Q2013 was a weak quarter.
Operational profit was also lower than expected at
SAR224.4m for the quarter, up 29.2% YoY but
down 34% QoQ. We don't have revenue figures
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation
We derive our target price for DAAR of SAR14.0
using a SOTP methodology. We value the
companys rental stream, land/residential sales
and Shams Al- Arous/Shams Arriyadh using a
DCF methodology, which leads to a value of
SAR6.2 per share.
We estimate a cost of equity of 12.5%, based on a
risk-free rate of 3.0%, a country risk premium of
6%, and an inflation differential of 3.5%. With a
6% cost of debt, this results in a WACC of 10.5%.
We assume a 3% terminal growth rate for the
rental properties. We then add the SAR10.9 per
share for the residual land we calculate this
using a SAR607 price per sqm and then discount
it by 40% to account for timing. We then subtract
SAR3.1 from the enterprise value for net debt to
arrive at the SAR14.0 per share valuation.
Risks
Downside risks to our rating include:
209
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Neutral
Financial statements
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2,931
1,002
-32
970
-314
699
699
-18
681
681
3,339
1,275
-33
1,242
-271
971
971
-24
946
946
4,037
1,499
-35
1,463
-267
1,196
1,196
-30
1,166
1,166
4,600
1,659
-37
1,622
-196
1,426
1,426
-36
1,390
1,390
959
-1
1,274
-751
0
-224
960
1,232
-17
1,484
-941
0
-291
1,212
1,036
-19
1,282
-423
-540
-73
1,015
1,346
-20
1,520
-28
-1,080
-238
1,324
19,258
5,043
2,470
25,049
5,804
3,334
17,939
20,526
19,646
3,661
855
24,054
4,116
3,261
18,566
21,079
19,636
4,035
1,093
24,419
4,116
3,023
18,876
21,151
(SARm)
18,350
5,099
2,279
24,197
5,904
3,624
16,993
19,870
Year to
12/2013a
12/2015e
12/2016e
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
PBT
HSBC EPS
13.9
27.3
28.0
38.9
38.9
20.9
17.5
17.8
23.3
23.3
14.0
10.7
10.8
19.2
19.2
0.1
5.0
4.1
4.3
34.2
33.1
3.2
21.3
3.6
26.4
0.2
6.1
5.4
4.9
38.2
37.2
4.7
18.6
2.6
36.9
0.2
7.0
6.4
5.8
37.1
36.3
5.6
17.6
2.2
31.8
0.2
7.6
7.4
6.5
36.1
35.3
8.5
16.0
1.8
44.5
0.63
0.63
0.00
15.73
24.83
0.88
0.88
0.00
16.61
26.61
1.08
1.08
0.50
17.19
27.89
1.29
1.29
1.00
17.48
28.71
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS
DPS
NAV
NAV (adjusted)
210
12/2016e
0.9
0.5
21.6
6.9
0.0
0.8
0.5
15.5
8.7
0.0
0.8
0.5
12.6
7.3
3.7
0.8
0.5
10.6
9.5
7.4
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR)13.60
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
4300.SE
3,916
71
Saudi Arabia
Patrick Gaffney
Price relative
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
2012
2013
Source: HSBC
-17.6
-19.2
-18.1
-31.1
-31.1
12/2015e
Dar Al Arkan
12/2014e
12/2014e
12/2013a
2.9
14.00
Bloomberg (Equity)
ALARKAN AB
Market cap (SARm)
14,688
Enterprise value (SARm)
17274
Sector
REAL ESTATE
Contact
+966 1 299 2100
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Jabal Omar
JOMAR AB, Price SAR53, Neutral,
TP SAR47
Company description
Investment thesis
Shares of Jabal Omar have soared 77% this year
and we believe the shares are now fully valued.
We also believe risks are also relatively high as
JOMAR has experienced multiple delays and has
no previous experience with projects of this size,
even though we remain positive on the project in
the longer term.
Villa auctions have started with Jabal Omar
announcing in June that it sold 8 villas in for
SAR320.5m, or SAR40m per villa. The high price
is attributed to the location - the units will
overlook the Holy Mosque in Mecca. The average
price per sqm was SAR122,375 or USD32,633.
The company has a further 12 to sell in this first
phase. Jabal Omar will use the cash to pay down
Financials
Jabal Omar showed significant improvement but
still recorded a loss in 2Q2014 of SAR0.47m
compared to a loss of SAR6.1m in 2Q2013.
Notably, gross profit was solid at SAR12.7m.
This is an improvement on both a QoQ and YoY
basis, as the company starts to recognize revenue
from its retail space. The company also had lower
SG&A according to JOMAR which contributed to
an improvement in the bottom line. Overall, it
appears that construction is progressing fairly well
(albeit slower than the original announcements)
and we should see a significant increase in
revenues and profits this year. The first hotel, a
Hilton, is open (according to the hotel website,
which is currently taking reservations), and we
should see continuous openings of other hotels
throughout this year and for the next few years.
Note that Jabal Omar follows the Hijri calendar,
so its 2Q2014 ended 29 April 2014.
211
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation
Risks
212
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
46
-25
-24
-49
0
-33
-33
0
-33
-33
2,650
1,304
-23
1,281
-46
1,234
1,234
-31
1,204
1,204
2,915
1,447
-23
1,424
-179
1,245
1,245
-31
1,214
1,214
4,719
2,460
-23
2,437
-233
2,204
2,204
-55
2,149
2,149
64
-2,381
-2,335
-2,381
0
2,487
-2,335
821
-1,751
-884
-1,751
0
929
-930
1,060
-2,001
-763
-2,001
0
941
-942
2,081
-1,001
1,312
-1,001
0
-837
1,079
12,439
3,397
2,889
18,177
7,153
4,264
10,142
12,069
12,640
1,967
1,448
18,725
6,653
5,205
11,356
12,448
10,840
2,367
1,785
20,102
6,153
4,367
13,262
10,741
(SARm)
12,189
2,872
2,818
15,925
6,153
3,335
8,938
11,412
12/2013a
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
5.5
1.1
4.9
1.0
40.9
-2.0
0.0
4.3
0.9
40.6
-2.1
0.0
3.7
0.8
22.9
2.5
0.0
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Y-o-y % change
-4.8
0.0
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR)53.00
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
4250.SE
13,133
91
Saudi Arabia
Patrick Gaffney
-11.3
47.00
Bloomberg (Equity)
JOMAR AB
Market cap (SARm)
49,258
Enterprise value (SARm)
51683
Sector
REAL ESTATE
Contact
+966 1 299 2100
Price relative
56
56
46
46
36
36
26
26
16
16
6
2012
2013
Jabal Omar Development Co
Neutral
2014
6
2015
Source: HSBC
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
PBT
HSBC EPS
5712.8
10.0
11.0
11.2
0.9
0.9
61.9
70.0
71.1
77.0
77.0
37.3
-134.4
1.9
0.2
10.6
12.6
7.3
49.2
48.3
28.3
42.0
3.3
19.3
0.2
11.3
11.3
7.5
49.7
48.8
8.1
45.8
3.6
20.4
0.4
20.5
17.5
12.2
52.1
51.6
10.6
32.9
1.8
47.6
-0.04
-0.04
0.00
9.62
50.42
1.30
1.30
0.00
10.91
55.33
1.31
1.31
0.00
12.22
58.61
2.31
2.31
0.00
14.27
64.64
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
0.0
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
-54.4
-108.1
213
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
SRECO is the only publicly-traded company we
cover in Saudi with a large investment property
portfolio currently producing income. We believe
this gives investors a good opportunity to gain
exposure to strong rental inflation in Saudi. Our
economists expect inflation to increase by 3.5% in
2014 and 4.3% in 2015, and this will likely result
in a continued increase in rents.
What would make the stock more attractive, in
our view, is if the company were to start to
monetise its 13.0 m sqm land bank. Yet it rarely
develops or sells any of it: it made no land sales in
2013, and in 2012, it made just one (for SAR80m
in 3Q). We saw a similar pattern in 2011, when
the company made only one SAR30m sale.
214
Financials
Saudi Real Estate Company reported 2Q2014
earnings of SAR48m, beating our SAR40.4m
estimate and higher than the SAR19.3m profit they
reported in the same period last year (although they
recognized a SAR17.7m loss from their Arabian
United Float Glass Company in 2Q2013). Even
after excluding the SAR17.7m loss in 2Q2013,
earnings in 2Q2014 were still 30% higher YoY. The
company attributes the strong beat to the associate
income line (although no further details were
given). SRECO reported SAR45.3m in gross profit
which was 8.5% lower than our estimate but 9.2%
up YoY, while operating profit of SAR36.7m was
17% lower than our estimate for the quarter but flat
compared to the same period last year. Although the
company did not provide further details, we assume
revenues were weaker than we expected this
quarter. More details as full financials are released.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation
Risks
215
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financial statements
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
259
193
-30
163
0
191
191
-11
180
180
282
205
-29
176
0
180
180
-16
163
163
301
219
-31
188
4
192
192
-16
175
175
318
231
-33
198
0
198
198
-17
181
181
193
-54
127
-45
-121
-16
127
235
231
462
264
-150
-349
462
206
-31
172
8
-180
-34
175
215
-33
182
8
-180
-42
182
2,270
166
18
3,566
0
-18
3,304
2,172
1,981
446
368
3,553
0
-368
3,317
1,840
1,950
496
401
3,563
0
-401
3,313
1,821
1,917
541
444
3,568
0
-444
3,314
1,787
(SARm)
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.7
7.2
5.4
5.4
5.3
3.3
3.5
0.1
7.1
5.5
5.1
74.7
63.1
0.1
8.0
4.9
4.6
72.6
62.3
0.2
9.4
5.3
4.9
72.7
62.3
0.2
10.1
5.5
5.1
72.7
62.3
-0.6
-0.1
-11.1
-1.8
-12.1
-1.8
-13.4
-1.9
1.50
1.50
1.00
27.53
42.00
1.36
1.36
1.25
27.65
42.11
1.46
1.46
1.50
27.61
42.07
1.51
1.51
1.50
27.62
0.00
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS
DPS
NAV
NAV (adjusted)
216
12/2015e
12/2016e
1.6
1.0
29.0
2.4
2.3
1.6
1.0
31.9
8.9
2.9
1.6
1.0
29.7
3.4
3.5
1.6
28.7
3.5
3.5
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR)43.40
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
4020.SE
1,389
100
Saudi Arabia
Patrick Gaffney
-7.8
40.00
Bloomberg (Equity)
SRECO AB
Market cap (SARm)
5,208
Enterprise value (SARm)
4840
Sector
REAL ESTATE
Contact
+966 1 299 2100
Price relative
49
49
44
44
39
39
34
34
29
29
24
24
19
2012
2013
9.1
6.0
7.7
-5.8
-9.0
12/2014e
12/2016e
-20.4
7.2
1.1
-0.5
0.0
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
PBT
HSBC EPS
Year to
Neutral
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
19
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
Recent news
On 7 July 2014, Emaar The Economic City
has announced that its shareholders have
approved a plan to raise USD1.4bn
(SAR5.2bn) so it can invest in the expansion
of the port at King Abdullah Economic City
(KAEC). The company said it would use
USD700m (SAR2.6bn) to increase its stake in
the Port Development Company at KAEC.
This would bring its stake in the firm to just
over 50% with joint venture partner Huta
Marina holding the rest of the shares. Its
investment will be used to help develop the
next phase of the port, which will then drive
the growth of the neighbouring Industrial
Valley that takes up around one-third (63mn
m2) of the city's 189mn m2 built-up area.
217
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
91
-532
-58
-590
0
-578
-578
-6
-584
-584
408
170
-45
125
0
89
89
-6
83
83
545
266
-47
219
-1
191
191
-5
186
186
834
308
-26
282
61
304
304
-31
273
273
-340
-170
-185
0
525
15
-64
-174
-3565
0
516
278
-330
-186
1862
0
874
358
97
-568
-594
0
1214
743
550
1564
339
8877
0
-339
7298
8538
517
6005
4885
13746
5062
177
7380
8861
569
4822
4117
13878
5168
1051
7563
9761
2108
4443
3039
14346
5304
2265
7836
11307
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
-65.1
98.4
93.3
98.2
89.0
348.5
33.7
56.3
75.8
115.8
125.3
52.9
15.9
28.5
59.2
46.7
0.0
-7.0
-8.0
-6.6
-585.5
-649.2
0.0
1.3
1.1
0.9
41.7
30.6
0.1
2.2
2.5
1.6
48.8
40.2
-4.6
0.6
100.3
2.4
1.0
-36.0
13.9
4.0
-31.4
0.1
2.2
3.5
2.0
37.0
33.8
-5.0
28.9
7.4
4.3
-0.69
-0.69
0.00
8.59
8.59
0.10
0.10
0.00
8.68
8.68
0.22
0.22
0.00
8.90
8.90
0.32
0.32
0.00
9.22
9.22
218
12/2012a
12/2013a
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.0
180.1
-1.6
0.0
2.0
79.9
-3.5
0.0
1.9
54.5
-3.2
0.0
-3.4
0.0
Issuer information
Share price
(SAR)
17.5
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
4220.SE
3,967
55%
Saudi Arabia
NR
NR
19
19
17
17
15
15
13
13
11
11
9
7
2013
Source: HSBC
24.4
Bloomberg (Equity)
EMAAR AB
Market cap (SARm)
14,875
Enterprise value (SARm)
15,926
Sector
REAL ESTATE
Contact
NR
Price relative
Emaar EC
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
12/2011a
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
PBT
HSBC EPS
12/2010a
7
2012
Not Rated
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Insurance
219
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Insurance
The insurance industry is experiencing rapid growth from a low base
Rapid growth
The insurance market in Saudi Arabia has
experienced one of the highest growth rates within
the industry globally in the last few years: Nonlife premiums more than doubled to SAR24.4bn
in 2013 from SAR10.2bn in 2008, according to
data from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority
(SAMA). Industry revenues grew by about 19%
y-o-y in 2013.
Over half of the growth has come from the health
segment, driven by progressively stricter
requirements for Saudi Arabian businesses to
provide employees with health insurance: In 2011,
health premiums reached SAR11.3bn, three times
the level in 2007 and up 16% on 2011. Motor
insurance is the second largest segment, with
premiums at SAR6.4bn in 2013 (+36% on 2012)
Company
Tawuniya
Medgulf
BUPA Arabia for Coop. Ins.
United Cooperative Assurance Co.
Malath Coop. Ins. & Reins. Co.
Saudi Arabian Coop. Ins. Co.
Allianz Saudi Fransi Coop. Ins. Co.
Trade Union Coop. Ins. Co.
Gulf Union Coop. Ins. Co.
SABB Takaful
Source: Company data
220
4,431
2,811
1,993
1,069
601
548
684
538
329
268
27%
18%
10%
-4%
-7%
4%
-9%
4%
27%
-17%
Market cap
USDm
Average 3M
trading vols
USDm
773
674
592
121
163
125
403
166
138
299
4.6
6.3
8.8
2.3
4.5
6.3
5.9
2.4
3.0
3.7
Raj Sinha*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd
+ 971 4423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
25000
Energy
20000
Accident/Liability
15000
Marine
Engineering
10000
Property
5000
Motor
Health
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source:SAMA
Leading players
The Saudi Arabian insurance sector is regulated
by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority. All
operators are required to operate according to the
principles of cooperative insurance. Collectively,
they form the largest Shari'ah-compliant sector in
the world.
The sector is relatively fragmented, with SAMA's
2013 annual report identifying 35 companies. By far
the largest player is Tawuniya, which wrote 22% of
gross premiums in 2013, followed by Medgulf with
a 16.4% market share and BUPA with 12.6% share.
All of the ten leading companies are listed on the
Tadawul stock exchange.
221
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
222
Financials
The gross premium written in FY 13 (ended 31
December 2013) was SAR4,137m, posting a 15%
y-o-y increase. However, the company posted a
net loss of SAR192m over FY 13. Management
attributed the loss to a 45% increase in net claims.
The company ended the year with a combined
ratio of 115%.
Medgulf's gross written premiums for Q412
reached SAR861m vs. SAR487m in Q411. The
net profit for Q412 was SAR116m, a 6.4%
increase from the same period last year.
Recent news
On 1 June, 2014, Medgulf announced the
renewal of its contract with Saudi Binladin
Group (SBG). Medgulf provides co-operative
medical insurance to SBG employees. This
contract constituted over 5% of Medgulfs
revenues in FY 13.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Not Rated
Valuation data
Financial statements
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
1,871
40
249
240
240
240
240
2,189
47
205
201
201
201
201
2,598
56
-234
-192
-192
-192
-192
347
952
67
0
2,931
1,094
22
0
-347
1,174
649
511
62
0
3,149
1,472
26
0
-649
1,186
1,109
558
70
0
4,084
2,232
34
0
-1,109
996
1,792
32
253
232
232
232
232
217
896
57
0
3,159
1,133
20
0
-217
1,069
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
37.8
0.4
0.6
4.4
0.0
0.0
17.0
-0.2
-0.2
18.7
-2.0
-2.0
Y-o-y % change
Net earned premium
Reported PBT
EPS
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
16.8
3.6
1.5
16.2
3.3
2.6
19.3
3.3
4.1
3.9
0.0
PE reported
Price/NAV
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price (SAR)
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
NA
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
MEDGULF AB
3,939
Insurance
NR
Price relative
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
2012
0
2013
Megulf
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Source: HSBC
Note: price at close of Jul 22 2014
2.32
2.32
0.60
10.69
2.40
2.40
1.00
11.74
2.01
2.01
1.60
11.86
-1.92
-1.92
0.00
9.96
223
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
224
Financials
In FY 13 (ended 31 December 2013), gross
written premiums came in at a flat SAR5,605m,
down from SAR5,635m in 2012. However,
premiums earned increased by 20% to reach
SAR4,728m. The company posted a combined
ratio of 102% for the year, and reported a net loss
of SAR591m.
Over 1H 2014, the company reported net income
of SAR233m, citing a decrease in claims incurred
and higher investment income as causes. The 1H
14 combined ratio was 100%.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Not Rated
Valuation data
Financial statements
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
2,659
9
553
494
494
64
3,098
5
500
457
457
-9
3,951
15
356
329
329
-27
4,728
8
-686
-585
-585
-285
64
-9
-27
-285
193
3,746
147
0
5,907
2,292
1,557
0
-193
1,769
212
3,840
177
0
6,134
2,406
1,895
0
-212
2,049
390
3,937
236
0
7,095
3,033
2,445
0
-390
2,143
1,091
3,845
266
0
7,776
3,777
2,358
0
-1,091
1,641
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
28.9
0.6
-0.8
16.5
-0.1
-1.1
27.5
-0.3
1.9
19.7
-2.8
9.5
Y-o-y % change
Net earned premium
Reported PBT
EPS
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
78.0
2.8
4.0
2.4
3.0
2.3
5.3
3.0
0.0
PE reported
Price/NAV
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price (SAR)
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
NA
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
TAWUNIYA AB
4,960
Insurance
NR
Price relative
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
2012
0
2013
Tawuniya
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Source: HSBC
Note: price at close of Jul 22 2014
0.64
0.64
2.00
17.69
-0.09
-0.09
1.50
20.49
-0.27
-0.27
2.62
21.43
-2.85
-2.85
0.00
16.41
225
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Malath Cooperative
Insurance & Reinsurance
Co (Malath)
MALATH AB; Not Rated
Company description
Malath Cooperative Insurance & Reinsurance
Company was founded in 2004 with a paid-up
capital of SAR300m. The company provides a
wide range of insurance products in various
classes including Aviation, Energy, Engineering,
Marine (cargo & hull), motor insurance, and
health insurance for groups and individuals.
Malaths principal investments include:
Saudi Re for Cooperative Reinsurance with a
3.75% stake
Najm Insurance Services Company with a
7.69% stake
Sukuk issued by SEC, GACA, and Tasnee,
valued at SAR70m, as well as various Sukuk
funds, equity funds, and Murabaha contracts.
Malath stresses the importance of a wider
geographic presence over Saudi, having obtained
SAMA approval to open 50 new outlets over the
next few years.
226
Financials
Gross premiums written in FY 13 (ended 31
December 2013) increased 38% to SAR771m.
Malath posted a net loss of SAR42m for FY 13,
down from net income of SAR30m in FY 12.
The company attributed the loss to price pressure
from competition as well as a 77% increase in
incurred claims, y-o-y. The company ended the
year with a combined ratio of 110%.
For 1H 14 (ended 30 June 2014), the company
reported losses of SAR17m. However, gross
written premiums were up 52%, y-o-y. The period
closed with a combined ratio of 112%.
Recent news
On 3 July 2014, Malath announced an agreement
with Abdullatif Jameel Insurance Agents (AJIA).
The agreement stipulates that AJIA will become a
distributor of Malath policies, exclusively. AJIA is
affiliated with Abdullatif Jameel Co. Ltd, currently
the sole distributor of Toyota cars in Saudi.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Not Rated
Valuation data
Financial statements
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
325
21
26
23
23
18
18
398
14
23
21
21
14
14
463
17
40
37
37
30
30
662
14
-30
-30
-30
-42
-42
41
446
14
0
727
303
0
0
-41
263
44
478
15
0
807
335
0
0
-44
281
54
497
13
0
831
336
0
0
-54
323
278
375
10
0
960
443
0
0
-278
291
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
148.6
1.0
1.5
22.5
-0.1
-0.2
16.2
0.8
1.2
43.2
-1.8
-2.4
Y-o-y % change
Net earned premium
Reported PBT
EPS
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
35.7
2.5
0.0
45.8
2.3
0.0
21.2
2.0
0.0
-15.4
2.2
0.0
PE reported
Price/NAV
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price (SAR)
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
NA
Bloomberg (Equity)
Market cap (SARm)
Sector
Contact
MALATH AB
645
Insurance
NR
Price relative
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
2012
0
2013
Malath
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Source: HSBC
Note: price at close of Jul 22 2014
0.60
0.60
0.00
8.75
0.47
0.47
0.00
9.35
1.02
1.02
0.00
10.75
-1.39
-1.39
0.00
9.70
227
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
228
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Telecoms
229
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Telecoms
Saudi remains at the forefront of mobile data with smart phone
Herv Drouet*
Analyst
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 6827
herve.drouet@hsbcib.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
200%
50
150%
40
30
100%
20
50%
10
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Penetration %- RHS
Source: CITC
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Internet penetration
Source: CITC
231
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
232
abc
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
Mobily has been single minded in pursuing the
broadband opportunity in mobile with the result that
we estimate it has some 63% of the smartphone
market versus an overall subscriber market share of
around 40%. The overall Saudi mobile broadband
market is 48% penetrated, with penetration having
risen sharply in the past three years. As of 2013,
16.5 million Saudis were using internet through
both fixed and mobile devices, implying a
penetration rate of 55%, and the majority of these
users were online via their smartphones. The rapid
decline in smartphone prices, and affordable data
packages have made internet access easy and cheap,
and we believe that, by 2016, 75% of the population
will be online.
233
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Recent news
Recently the company saw cancellation of the
IRU (Indefeasible Rights of Use) deal with
Etihad Atheeb which resulted in a write-off of
SAR338.7m of the net profit during the
second quarter.
Mobily signed USD200m agreement with
Canadian export agency, in June 2014, to
acquire equipment from Alcatel-Lucent.
Valuation
We value Mobily using a three-stage DCF model
with a WACC of 9.9% based on a 12.5% cost of
equity (risk-free rate of 3.0%, market risk
premium of 9.5%, including an inflation
differential of 3.5% in Saudi Arabia, and an
equity beta of 1.0), as well as a 4% pre-tax cost of
debt, using a debt-to-asset ratio of 30%.
234
Risks
Key downside risks include: A potentially
aggressive price war with Zain KSA as it tries to
achieve critical mass, STCs aggressive build-up of
its fixed network adversely affecting mobile
broadband growth in the Kingdom, potential market
disruption from the launch of the new MVNOs
and/or additional infrastructure based competitors,
failure to secure additional spectrum to facilitate
continued broadband growth and failure to reverse
the adverse working capital movements evident
over the past three years. Key upside risks include:
Faster economic growth than anticipated, less
impact from the new MVNOS than expected,
stronger pricing trends in mobile data and better
growth in the ICT area than forecast.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
25,191
9,190
-2,502
6,688
67
6,755
6,755
-78
6,676
6,676
26,808
9,837
-2,935
6,902
40
6,942
6,942
-125
6,818
6,818
28,505
10,408
-3,354
7,054
38
7,092
7,092
-128
6,964
6,964
30,261
10,861
-3,612
7,249
44
7,293
7,293
-131
7,162
7,162
7,070
-5,424
-5,487
-3,619
2,226
3,754
8,199
-6,166
-6,166
-3,696
1,663
3,587
9,021
-5,131
-5,131
-4,004
114
5,187
9,778
-5,144
-5,144
-4,312
-321
5,630
9,874
25,273
14,889
1,126
50,042
11,996
11,970
10,845
26,777
36,914
9,300
27,624
15,775
2,012
52,705
12,307
12,970
10,959
29,429
38,381
8,727
29,729
17,596
3,833
56,058
12,618
14,470
10,637
31,971
39,601
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
3.0
8.3
2.3
10.0
2.8
5.6
5.5
2.9
7.9
2.1
9.8
2.5
5.4
6.0
2.7
7.5
2.0
9.6
2.3
7.7
6.4
2.6
7.1
2.0
9.3
2.1
8.4
6.9
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)86.96
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
Target price
7020.SE
17,853
40
Saudi Arabia
Herve Drouet
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
2012
2013
Etihad Etisalat(Mobily)
12/2013a
2014
40
2015
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Bloomberg (Equity)
EEC AB
Market cap (SARm)
66,959
Enterprise value (SARm)
77804
Sector
Wireless Telecoms
Contact
44 20 7991 6827
Price relative
10,448
20,733
15,334
1,570
46,521
11,642
10,753
9,182
23,963
33,303
1
2
.
7
(SAR)98.00
6.6
7.0
8.0
11.0
10.9
6.4
7.0
3.2
2.8
2.1
6.3
5.8
2.2
2.2
2.2
6.2
4.4
2.8
2.8
2.8
0.8
23.4
29.8
16.1
36.5
26.6
0.8
20.9
26.9
14.6
36.7
25.7
0.8
19.9
24.8
14.0
36.5
24.7
0.8
19.7
23.3
13.6
35.9
24.0
38.3
1.0
77.0
40.5
1.1
75.6
37.2
1.1
82.3
33.3
1.0
91.9
8.67
8.67
4.80
31.12
8.85
8.85
5.20
34.78
9.04
9.04
5.60
38.22
9.30
9.30
6.00
41.52
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
235
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
STC is well placed to provide highly relevant
bundles that offer a clear value proposition as it is
the only operator in Saudi Arabia with a pervasive
presence in both fixed and wireless infrastructure.
While in many other markets, active regulatory
intervention has tended to undermine the
advantage that this infrastructure position affords
the historical incumbent operator, this is not so
evident in the case of the Saudi market. As a
result, STC has maintained significant advantages
in operating both a fixed and mobile network.
However, while STCs domestic operation have
236
Recent news
In June 2014, government seized a plot of
area around 1m square metre from STC
which had a book value of around SAR105m
Also in June, the company raised SAR2bn via
a 10 year Sukuk which is the first issuance
under its newly established SAR5bn Private
Placement sukuk program.
Etihad Atheeb signed an IRU agreement with
STC in May which allows it to use STCs 30
thousand ports for 15 years as an initial phase
and has an option to access upto 100 thousand
in future.
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation
We use the average of a DCF and a sum of the
parts model to value STC. In the DCF, we use a
risk-free rate of 3.5%, a market risk premium of
9.5%, including an inflation differential of 3.5%
in Saudi Arabia, and an equity beta of 1. Our
weighted cost of equity for STC is 12.5% leading
to a WACC of 11.8% for the stock. We assume a
long-term debt-to-equity ratio of 10-90%, and we
calculate a one year forward value of SAR70 per
share from our DCF. Our sum of the parts model
produces a valuation of SAR72, giving an average
of SAR71. For the domestic operations we use our
forecast for projected domestic EBITDA to which
we attach a 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiple.
Risks
Downside risks: increased losses from
international operations and the need to inject
more equity into the operations, Zain KSA
increasing competitive pressure in Saudi, leading
to erosion of ARPUs for all mobile operators,
regulatory developments damaging STCs
domestic and international market positions,
overpayment for international acquisitions, a
delay in NGN implementation, higher-thanexpected capex in international operations.
237
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
45,602
18,520
-7,482
11,039
47
10,561
11,316
-231
9,972
10,392
47,290
18,916
-6,599
12,317
185
12,962
12,962
-648
11,886
11,886
48,822
19,529
-6,808
12,721
301
13,606
13,606
-680
12,925
12,452
50,325
20,130
-6,987
13,143
415
14,231
14,231
-712
13,520
13,004
19,640
-7,469
-7,530
-3,998
-34,972
10,748
18,896
-7,094
-7,094
-6,000
-5,802
11,385
19,166
-7,177
-7,177
-6,285
-5,704
11,957
19,850
-7,292
-7,292
-6,564
-5,994
12,527
3,988
39,689
39,604
24,861
95,997
18,862
9,807
-15,054
62,819
39,558
3,368
40,678
45,461
30,565
102,807
19,032
9,807
-20,758
68,986
39,910
2,748
41,603
51,605
36,558
109,929
19,199
9,807
-26,752
75,426
40,199
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
2.9
7.2
3.4
13.9
2.5
7.6
3.1
2.7
6.7
3.2
12.1
2.3
8.0
4.2
2.5
6.2
3.0
11.6
2.1
8.5
4.4
2.3
5.7
2.8
11.1
1.9
8.9
4.6
Target price
(SAR)71.00
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Overweight
(SAR)72.00
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
7010.SE
38,394
30
Saudi Arabia
Herve Drouet
77
77
67
67
57
57
47
47
37
37
27
2012
2013
Saudi Telecom Company
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
-23.2
-11.6
-7.2
13.8
20.9
3.7
2.1
11.6
22.7
14.4
3.2
3.2
3.3
5.0
4.8
3.1
3.1
3.3
4.6
4.4
0.7
18.9
19.2
10.2
40.6
24.2
1.2
31.2
19.9
13.6
40.0
26.0
1.2
31.9
18.9
13.2
40.0
26.1
1.3
32.6
18.0
12.9
40.0
26.1
-16.1
-0.5
-23.6
-0.8
-29.5
-1.1
-34.6
-1.3
4.99
5.20
2.25
28.47
5.94
5.94
3.00
31.41
6.46
6.23
3.14
34.49
6.76
6.50
3.28
37.71
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
238
Bloomberg (Equity)
STC AB
Market cap (SARm)
144,000
Enterprise value (SARm)
126522
Sector
DIVERSIFIED TELECOMS
Contact
44 20 7991 6827
Price relative
4,608
38,406
32,364
17,789
87,633
18,251
8,537
-9,252
56,933
39,337
1
.
4
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
27
2015
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Zain KSA
ZAINKSA AB, Not rated
Company description
Zain KSA is one of three mobile operators in Saudi
Arabia with a market cap of around USD3bn. Zain
Group (Kuwait) is the largest shareholder with a
37% stake while the rest is held by Saudi institutions
and local retail investors.
Company started commercial operations in 2008
and Zain KSA now has a market share of 16%
with an ARPU of USD16per month.
Zain KSAs network covers 93% of the
population through more than 6000 network sites.
Data revenues (ex SMS & VAS) constitutes 16%
of total revenues and its 4G LTE network covers
around 52% of the population
Recent news
Recently CITC announced re-tender of the
MVNO license on Zains network, which was
earlier granted to Axiom in 2013.
Also, during 2Q14 company singed a network
expansion and upgrade agreements worth
SAR4.5bn (USD1.2bn) with five leading
global technology companies.
Financials
The company had revenues of SAR6523m in
2013, up 5.7% y-o-y. This was driven by increase
in revenues in internet segment and postpaid
segment. EBITDA was SAR891m, implying a
margin of c13.7%. Company posted a net loss of
SAR-1651m in 2013.
2Q14 results
239
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Not Rated
Financial statements
Valuation data
Year to
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
Operating profit/EBIT
Net interest
PBT
HSBC PBT
Taxation
Net profit
HSBC net profit
6,699
899
-1,710
-811
-1,114
-1,925
-1,925
0
-1,925
-1,925
6,404
879
-1,810
-932
-823
-1,749
-1,749
0
-1,749
-1,749
6,523
890
-1,840
-949
-723
-1,651
-1,651
0
-1,651
-1,651
462
-309
-307
0
42
177
-88
-311
-309
0
475
-390
-1,150
-562
-562
0
0
-1,708
229
-803
-803
0
-747
-510
21,155
4,298
2,603
702
28,055
5,600
12,509
11,807
6,129
27,353
20,253
4,059
2,432
780
26,744
4,847
17,060
16,279
4,293
25,963
19,274
4,285
4,391
2,385
27,950
3,924
14,855
12,470
8,452
25,565
18,351
4,293
3,315
1,293
26,242
3,594
11,622
10,329
6,759
24,949
(SARm)
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
3.8
NM
0.8
NM
1.1
1.4
0.0
3.2
23.5
0.8
NM
1.6
-3.7
0.0
3.3
24.0
0.8
NM
1.3
-15.8
0.0
3.2
23.7
0.8
NM
1.6
-5.3
0.0
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Year to
(SAR)10.00
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Country
Analyst
Target price
7030.SE
2,880
Saudi Arabia
Not Rated
Year to
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
2012
Source: HSBC
12/2010a
12/2011a
12/2012a
12/2013a
87.4
19.0
171.9
-4.4
-2.2
1.8
1.3
0.2
-8.6
-38.5
-8.4
5.9
-20.7
0.3
-7.4
-44.8
-7.2
13.4
-12.1
0.3
-6.8
-20.7
-6.3
13.7
-14.5
0.3
-6.6
-24.4
-6.3
13.7
-14.6
1.9
35.7
0.0
3.8
18.1
0.0
1.5
14.2
-0.1
1.5
11.6
0.0
-2.18
-2.18
0.00
8.79
-1.78
-1.78
0.00
6.16
-1.62
-1.62
0.00
7.83
-1.53
-1.53
0.00
6.26
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
240
Bloomberg (Equity)
ZAINKSA AB
Market cap (SARm)
10,801
Sector
DIVERSIFIED TELECOMS
Contact
Not Rated
Price relative
0
2013
Zain KSA
1
.
4
(SAR)Not Rated
2014
Rel to Tadawul
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Utilities
241
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Utilities
Electricity demand fundamentals are being driven by strong
population growth
However, we see a lack of substantial catalysts to drive
242
Levent Bayar*
Analyst
HSBC Yatrim Menkul
Degerler A.S
+ 90 2123764617
levent.bayar@hsbc.com.tr
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
25,000
20,000
Industrial
20%
15,000
Others
4%
10,000
Residential
49%
5,000
Gov t.
12%
Norway
Canada
Kuwait
Finland
Qatar
Sweden
USA
Australia
Bahrain
UAE
Japan
Saudi Arabia
France
Germany
Russia
EU
UK
China
World avg.
commercial
15%
Source: Company data.
243
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Investment thesis
Margin outlook
244
Levent Bayar*
Analyst
HSBC Yatrim Menkul
Degerler A.S
+ 90 2123764617
levent.bayar@hsbc.com.tr
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Financials
SEC recently reported solid Q2 14 results, posting
a net income of SAR3.7bn, up 143.5%. This was
primarily on the back of a one-off gain of
SAR6.2bn from the reversal of accounts
receivable provisions.
However, our concerns regarding SECs tight
profitability window given the high costs and the
regulated tariff structure persist. In the long term,
we do not expect to see a strong improvement in
operational figures as long as tariffs remain as
they are. This is mainly because, while greater
power consumption does increase power bills
within the progressive tariff structure, it also
forces SEC to purchase more power from IPPs at
a higher cost. Combined with this, we forecast the
high levels of capex will result in negative FCF in
the near term.
Risks
Key downside risks include:
Valuation
We use an ROE-driven PB regression methodology
to value SEC. With this methodology we run a
regression of HSBC EM power generators' PB and
ROE values for 2014e. Our regression produces a
relationship of: PB = 1.08*ROE + 1.05. Given an
average 5.7% RoE for 2014e, we thus arrive at a
target price of SAR15.9.
245
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Valuation data
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
36,820
13,899
-12,009
1,889
0
3,036
3,036
0
3,036
3,036
40,267
15,651
-12,268
3,383
-932
3,315
3,315
0
3,315
3,315
44,418
17,195
-13,301
3,894
-932
3,824
3,824
0
3,824
3,824
48,620
18,769
-14,338
4,431
-932
4,301
4,301
0
4,301
4,301
23,791
-41,014
-41,214
-547
18,325
-18,735
17,028
-41,206
-41,206
-547
24,725
-25,365
19,757
-41,398
-41,398
-547
22,189
-22,859
27,314
-41,590
-41,590
-547
14,824
-15,468
0
267,180
32,292
3,261
301,862
135,211
100,868
97,607
59,597
160,999
0
295,278
35,097
3,118
332,765
140,436
122,914
119,796
62,874
186,820
0
322,530
39,699
4,740
364,619
151,701
139,360
134,620
66,627
205,787
Year to
12/2013a
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
3.7
9.9
1.0
22.2
1.2
-29.2
4.3
4.0
10.4
1.0
20.4
1.1
-39.0
4.3
4.2
10.8
1.0
17.7
1.1
-35.1
4.3
4.1
10.6
1.0
15.7
1.0
-23.8
4.3
Target price
(SAR)15.90
EV/sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/IC
PE*
P/Book value
FCF yield (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Issuer information
Share price
Neutral
(SAR)16.20
Reuters (Equity)
Market cap (USDm)
Free float (%)
Country
Analyst
5110.SE
17,997
19
Saudi Arabia
Levent Bayar
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
2012
2013
Saudi Electricity Company
12/2013a
Source: HSBC
12/2014e
12/2015e
12/2016e
Note: price at close of 22 Jul 2014
Y-o-y % change
Revenue
EBITDA
Operating profit
PBT
HSBC EPS
9.4
-0.6
-45.5
17.7
17.7
9.4
12.6
79.1
9.2
9.2
10.3
9.9
15.1
15.4
15.4
9.5
9.2
13.8
12.5
12.5
0.3
1.8
5.5
1.2
37.7
5.1
128.2
5.2
32.6
0.3
2.5
5.7
1.5
38.9
8.4
16.8
163.8
6.2
17.4
0.3
2.5
6.2
1.5
38.7
8.8
18.4
190.5
7.0
16.5
0.2
2.5
6.6
1.5
38.6
9.1
20.1
202.0
7.2
20.3
0.73
0.73
0.70
13.64
0.80
0.80
0.70
14.30
0.92
0.92
0.70
15.09
1.03
1.03
0.70
15.99
Ratios (%)
Revenue/IC (x)
ROIC
ROE
ROA
EBITDA margin
Operating profit margin
EBITDA/net interest (x)
Net debt/equity
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
CF from operations/net debt
Per share data (SAR)
EPS Rep (fully diluted)
HSBC EPS (fully diluted)
DPS
Book value
246
Bloomberg (Equity)
SECO AB
Market cap (SARm)
67,499
Enterprise value (SARm)
162715
Sector
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
Contact
+90 212 3764617
Price relative
0
237,745
31,961
4,470
272,995
132,550
77,351
72,881
56,829
132,687
1
.
9
2014
Rel to TADAWUL ALL SHARE INDEX
8
2015
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Notes
247
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Notes
248
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Disclosure appendix
Analyst Certification
Each analyst whose name appears as author of an individual chapter or individual chapters of this report certifies that the views
about the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) or any other views or forecasts expressed in the chapter(s) of which (s)he is author
accurately reflect his/her personal views and that no part of his/her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly
related the specific recommendations(s) or view(s) contained therin: Raj Sinha, Aybek Islamov, Nicholas Paton, Patrick
Gaffney, Sriharsha Pappu, Herve Drouet, Levent Bayar, Simon Williams, Razan Nasser, Vijay Sumon, John Lomax and
Joaquim De Lima
Important disclosures
Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis
HSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which
depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations.
Given these differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment opportunities
based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time horizon;
and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative,
technical or event-driven techniques on a 0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating.
HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below.
This report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and when
HSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at
www.hsbcnet.com/research. Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of this
website.
HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's
existing holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating
systems to describe their recommendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research
report. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views, investors
should carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In any case, ratings should not
be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice.
HSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis:
For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stocks domestic or, as appropriate,
regional market established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock
to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, the
potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the
forecast dividend yield when indicated, must exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months
(or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock must be
expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10 percentage points
for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral.
Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation of coverage, change of volatility
status or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review,
expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarily
triggering a rating change.
249
abc
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
*A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12
months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However,
stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the past
month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating,
however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change.
37%
Underweight (Sell)
19%
Information regarding company share price performance and history of HSBC ratings and target prices in respect of long-term
investment opportunities for the companies that are the subject of this report is available from www.hsbcnet.com/research.
250
Ticker
Recent price
Price Date
Disclosure
1330.SE
4001.SE
4002.SE
2280.SE
1120.SE
1080.SE
1212.SE
1050.SE
4300.SE
7020.SE
4240.SE
6002.SE
4250.SE
50.50
111.00
107.50
72.75
68.50
29.90
48.70
35.00
13.95
88.53
106.50
104.25
50.50
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
25-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
4
4
4
1, 2, 4, 5, 7
7
6, 7, 11
7
6, 7, 11
11
1, 2, 4, 5
4, 7
4
1, 5
4190.SE
1211.SE
2060.SE
2002.SE
2380.SE
1010.SE
1090.SE
6004.SE
2020.SE
2010.SE
5110.SE
2250.SE
2310.SE
2350.SE
2070.SE
2050.SE
3060.SE
2290.SE
2240.SE
201.81
38.50
36.80
34.00
33.86
19.05
44.03
190.00
160.75
128.75
17.35
39.50
38.00
15.45
47.90
82.00
74.50
72.60
61.50
25-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
25-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
25-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
25-Jul-2014
24-Jul-2014
4
5
2, 6, 7
5, 6, 7
5
6, 7, 11
2, 4, 6, 7, 11
4
1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 11
1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 11
1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 11
4
2, 5
5
4
2, 6, 7
4, 6, 7
4
4, 5
4, 7
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
abc
HSBC has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months.
HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next
3 months.
At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by this
company.
As of 30 June 2014 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company.
As of 31 May 2014, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of
and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services.
As of 31 May 2014, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of
and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking securities-related services.
As of 31 May 2014, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of
and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services.
A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months.
A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, as
detailed below.
A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of this
company, as detailed below.
At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-US Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or in
securities in respect of this company
HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments (including derivatives)
of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis.
Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment
banking revenues.
Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance.
For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that
company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research.
Additional disclosures
1
2
3
MSCI Disclaimer
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information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI, Morgan Stanley Capital International and the MSCI
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251
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
abc
Disclaimer
* Legal entities as at 30 May 2014
Issuer of report
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[423840]
252
Raj Sinha*
Head of EEMEA equity research
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4 423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
Equities
Saudi Arabia
July 2014
Ammash Aljuraid*
Analyst
HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited
+966 11 299 2105
ammashaljuraid@hsbc.com
Sriharsha Pappu*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4 423 6924
sriharsha.pappu@hsbc.com
Sagar Kumar*
Analyst
HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited
+966 11 299 2104
sagar.kumar@hsbc.com
Vikram Viswanathan*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4 423 6931
vikramviswanathan@hsbc.com
Yazeed M Alturki*
Analyst
HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited
+966 11 299 2260
yazeedmalturki@hsbc.com
Nicholas Paton*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4423 6923
nicholas.paton@hsbc.com
Telecom
Herve Drouet*
Analyst
HSBC Bank Plc
+44 20 7991 6827
herve.drouet@hsbcib.com
Simon Williams
Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4 423 6925
simon.williams@hsbc.com
Rana Nasser
Senior Economist, Middle East and North Africa
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai
+971 4423 6928
razan.nasser@hsbc.com
Egypt
Shirin Panicker*
Analyst
HSBC Securities, Egypt, S.A.E.
+202 2529 8439
shirinpanicker@hsbc.com
Saudi Arabia
A guide to the market
Equities
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Patrick Gaffney*, CFA
Analyst
HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited
+966 11 299 2100
patrickgaffney@hsbc.com
After moves towards increased accessibility over the past seven years, the Saudi Arabian
cabinet has now authorised the Capital Market Authority to allow foreign institutions to trade
stocks on the Saudi stock market, paving the way for potentially a complete opening of the
market in 2015
We believe valuations should see a positive effect from the potential inclusion of the stocks
in various equity indices, which could follow soon after the opening of the market
Oilfield services
Peter Hitchens*
Analyst
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 6822
peter.hitchens@hsbcib.com
In this report we provide a macro overview of the market, and look at this new opportunity
from an equity strategy, industry sector and stock perspective
Utilities
Levent Bayar*
Analyst
HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S.
+90 212 3764617
leventbayar@hsbc.com.tr
Equity Strategy
John Lomax*
Head of Equity Strategy, GEMs
HSBC Bank plc, London
+44 20 7992 3712
john.lomax@hsbcib.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.
July 2014
Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst
certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it