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Impact of Wind Correlation and Load Correlation on

Probabilistic Load Flow of Radial Distribution


Systems
Sooraj Narayan K, Ashwani Kumar
Department of Electrical Engineering
NIT Kurukshetra
Haryana, India
soorajn14@gmail.com, ashwa_ks@yahoo.co.in
AbstractThis paper presents a probabilistic analysis of
radial distribution systems considering correlated nodal load
demands and correlated wind power sources. The loads and wind
power sources are modeled as probability distribution functions.
Cholesky factorization method is used to generate correlated
nodal power samples and correlated wind power injection
samples. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used for the
Probabilistic Load Flow (PLF) procedure. A comparison is
carried out for various scenarios of correlations. The power loss
variation and voltage profile variation for the various scenarios
are observed for the various scenarios. The results are analyzed
for an IEEE 33 bus radial distribution system.
KeywordsProbabilistic Analysis, Radial Distribution Network,
Correlated Nodal Load, Correlated Wind Power, Cholesky
Factorization.

I. INTRODUCTION
Utility deregulation and rise of competitive electricity
market has significantly scaled up the interest in Distributed
Generation (DG) in the recent past [1]. The performance
benefits that come with the integration of DG into the
distribution system especially solar and wind energy sources
has been well studied and analyzed [2]. The renewable
distributed sources of power are both cost-effective and
environmentally viable [3].
Uncertainty and intermittency of wind power source means
that the prediction of wind speed and the power produced by
the wind turbine can be implemented in a probabilistic manner
[4]. Since the loads connected to a distribution system may also
vary with time, weather and other factors, it can also be
modeled as a probabilistic variable [5]. Correlation or
dependence between wind power sources integrated at various
nodes in a distribution system may be included in the analysis
of the system for obtaining more realistic results [6]. Moments
and Cornish-Fisher expansion were used in [7] for probabilistic
load flow with correlated wind power. In [8], correlation
between generation, wind power and loads were considered for
the probabilistic load flow procedure. Uncertainty of wind
power and load correlation was considered for probabilistic
optimal load flow in [9]. In order to solve probabilistic load
flow with load correlation using DC load flow, an analytical
method was proposed in [10]. Hybrid Latin Hypercube
Sampling along with Cholesky Decomposition was used in

[11] for probabilistic analysis and corresponding load flow


evaluation.
This paper performs a comparison study to analyze the
impacts of both load power correlation and wind power
correlation on probabilistic load flow of radial distribution
systems with integrated wind power sources. A comparison
between four different cases of correlation is considered for
performance studies.
The rest of the paper is as follows: Section II discusses the
load power modeling, substation voltages modeling and wind
power modeling. Section III discusses correlation and
dependence between random variables and also the generation
of correlated random numbers using Cholesky Factorization.
Section IV deals with the computational procedure of the
study. Section V deals with various case studies of load flow
with correlated wind power and load power. An IEEE 33 bus
radial distribution test system is used for study in this paper. A
program was developed in MATLAB 7.1 the study. The
program was run on an Intel Core(TM) i7-3770 3.70 GHz
processor. The results are analyzed and discussed in detail.
II. PROBABILISTIC MODELLING
A. Modeling of Load
The probabilistic nature of load at each node in a radial
distribution system can be implemented in the load flow
studies by modeling the loads as random variables distributed
with a variance about a mean value. In this paper, the load
demands at each bus are assumed to be random variables with
Normal distribution [12].
,

(1)

where , is the active load demand at bus number and , ,


are the mean and standard deviation values of each load
power respectively.
B. Modeling of Substation Voltage
The substation voltage can also be modeled, similar to the
load modeling, as a normally distributed random variable.
[13].

(2)

where
is the substation bus voltage and , are the mean
and standard deviation values of substation voltage
respectively.
C. Wind Power Modeling
The real power output from a wind turbine is given by the
following equation [14].
0,
,

(5)

(3)

,
0,

is the power output of wind turbine in MW, is the


where
is the cut-in speed of the wind turbine
wind velocity in m/s,
is the cut-out speed of the wind turbine in m/s,
in m/s,
is the rated
is the rated speed of the wind turbine in m/s,
power output of the wind turbine in MW,
and

C. Generation of Correlated Random Numbers


Cholesky Factorization method [9] is used to generate
correlated random numbers in this paper. It is used to
decompose a symmetric positive-definite matrix into the
product of a lower triangular matrix and its conjugate
be a matrix containing non-correlated
transpose. Let
random numbers as its columns. Cholesky Factorization is
done to obtain a lower triangular matrix such that:

The power produced by a wind turbine is dependent on the


wind speed, which is intermittent. Hence, it can be modeled as
a random variable. Weibull distribution function has been used
to model wind speed in this paper. The Weibull distribution
function is a two parameter function which is used to describe
wind speed mathematically as:
,0
where is the wind speed,
the scale parameter [12].

(4)

is the shape parameter and

is

III. CORRELATION AND DEPENDENCE


In probability theory, correlation factor () is a term that is
used to show the degree of dependence between two random
variables. The value of may vary from -1 to +1. When two
random variables have high correlation or high dependence, the
absolute value of the correlation factor tends to be close to 1
[10]. Similarly, if there is no dependence between two
variables, the absolute value of correlation factor tends to be
close to 0. In this paper, the correlation is implemented by
considering correlated load demands and correlated wind
power injections.
A. Correlated Load Power Demands
Various factors that may affect the nodal load demands in a
distribution system, like social or environmental, may cause the
loads in a system to vary in a similar manner [8]. Generally, the
variation in loads may be due to interchangeable reasons.
Hence, a certain degree of dependence may be assumed
between various load demands.
B. Correlated Wind Power Injections
Since the distribution systems cover a comparatively lesser
area geographically, the various wind turbines connected to the
system may be assumed to be part of the same wind farm.
Hence, the inclusion of correlation between the power outputs
produced by these wind turbines becomes an essentiality for
load flow computation [7].

where
is the symmetric covariance matrix. The matrix of
can be
correlated random numbers as its columns (
obtained by the following transformation:
(6)
IV. COMPUTATIONAL PROCEDURE
Monte-Carlo Simulation is used to generate wind speed
samples from the Weibull parameters of the site. A large
sample size of 10000 or 20000 is normally required for
convergence of PLF using MCS. From the wind speed samples
obtained, wind power samples are also obtained from Equation
3. The MCS is also used to generate normally distributed
samples of nodal power demands with the respective mean and
variance. A wind farm with suitable Weibull parameters is
selected along with a wind turbine. The candidate nodes where
the wind turbine is to be placed are the farthest nodes in the
system. Then, the correlated wind speed and power samples,
along with the correlated load power samples, are generated
using Cholesky Factorization. Various scenarios are introduced
and PLF is carried out for the required number of MCS
samples in order to investigate the impacts of correlation on
voltage profile and power losses.
V. SIMULATION CASE STUDIES AND RESULTS
The studies were conducted on an IEEE 33 bus radial
distribution test system [14]. The base power of the system is
100 MVA and the base voltage is 12.66 KV. The total
connected active power load is 3.72 MW and reactive power
load is 2.30 MVAR. The wind turbines are placed at the
candidate nodes 18, 25 and 33, since these nodes are the
farthest nodes in the system and hence is bound to experience
severe voltage deviations [15]. A wind farm having the
Weibull parameters =1.75 and =8.78 [12] is selected for the
3
study. The wind turbine selected has the parameters
=20 m/s and =2.0 MW [16]. The same
m/s, =11.5 m/s,
wind turbine is placed on all the three candidate nodes. For the
PLF, the values of power demand at each bus are assumed to
be their respective mean values. A standard deviation of 10% is
set for every node. The mean and standard deviation of
substation voltage is set to 1.0 pu and 1.5% respectively [13].
The sample size of MCS is taken as 15000. A correlation factor
of 0.98 is taken for both wind power correlation and nodal load
power correlation. Four cases are included in the study, apart
from the base scenario. The base case is the scenario where no
wind power is injected and basic PLF is carried out. The total
active power losses in the system for the base case are
210.9824 MW.

A. Non-Correlated Load and Non-Correlated Wind Power


(Case 1)
In this case, the wind speed generated and the power
injections at nodes 18, 25 and 33 are completely independent,
as shown in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 respectively. The load power
demands are also non-correlated, as shown in Fig. 3. The load
flow is performed by subtracting wind power injections from
their corresponding nodes for each MCS sample. The total real
power loss is observed to be 183.6966 KW.
B. Correlated Load and Non-Correlated Wind Power(Case 2)
In this case, the wind speed generated and the power
injections at nodes 18, 25 and 33 are completely independent,
but the load power demands are correlated with =0.98, as
shown in Fig. 4. The total real power loss is observed to be
183.106 KW.

Fig 4. Scatter diagram of correlated real power demand at the candidate nodes

C. Non-Correlated Load and Correlated Wind Power(Case 3)


In this case, the wind speed generated and the power
injections at nodes 18, 25 and 33 are correlated with =0.98, as
shown in Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 respectively. The load power
demands are independent in this case. The total real power loss
is observed to be 179.9314 KW.
D. Correlated Load and Correlated Wind Power (Case 4)
In this case, the wind speed generated and the power
injections at nodes 18, 25 and 33 are correlated with =0.98.
The load power demands are also correlated with =0.98. The
total real power loss is observed to be 179.3219 KW.

Fig 1. Scatter diagram of non-correlated wind speed generated at the


candidate nodes

Fig. 7 shows the comparison of voltage profiles for the four


cases. Fig. 8 shows the comparison of total real power losses
for the four cases. The real losses are seen to be minimum in
Case 4 and maximum in Case 1. Fig. 9 shows the comparison
of total reactive power losses for the four cases. The reactive
losses are seen to be minimum in Case 3 and maximum in Case
2.

Fig 2. Scatter diagram of non-correlated wind power output at the candidate


nodes
Fig 5. Scatter diagram of correlated wind speed generated at the candidate
nodes

Fig 3. Scatter diagram of non-correlated real power demand at the candidate


nodes

Fig 6. Scatter diagram of correlated wind power output at the candidate node

0.95
0.9

0.85
13 10
22 19 16
25
28
31
Bus Number

Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Case 4

Total Real Power Loss (KW)

Fig 7. Comparison of voltage profile for various cases

Reactive power loss (KVAR)

Voltage (pu)

40
Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Case 4

30
20
10
0

1 3 5
7 9 11
13 15 17
19 21 23
25 27 29
31
Branch number

Fig 11. Comparison of branch reactive power losses for various cases

185
180
175
Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Case 4

Total Reactive Power Loss


(KVAR)

Fig 8. Comparison of total real power loss for various caases


Fig 12. Comparison of cdfs of voltagee profile at bus number 25 for various
cases

126

VI. CONC
CLUSIONS

124
122
120
Case 1
Case 2

Case 3
Case 4

Fig 9. Comparison of total reactive power loss for variouus cases

Real Power Loss (KW)

Fig. 10 shows the comparison of line reaal power losses for


the four cases. Similarly, Fig. 11 shows the comparison
c
of line
reactive power losses for the four cases. Fig.
F 12 shows the
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the voltage at bus
number 25 for the various cases. It is observed that the voltage
CDF is inclined more towards unity in Caase 4 compared to
other cases. Hence the inclusion of correlattion has improved
the voltage CDF and reduced total active pow
wer losses.
50

Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Case 4
1 3 5
7 9 11
13 15 17
19 21 23
5 27 29
25
Branch Number
31

Fig 10. Comparison of branch real power losses for variious cases

This paper analyzes the im


mpacts of correlated wind power
injections and correlated load power demands for a specific
value of correlation factor on a radial distribution system. Four
scenarios are considered and thhe load flow study is conducted
on a probabilistic perspective. A comparison of voltage profile
and real power losses is carriedd out. The total active power loss
is observed to minimum whenn both the wind speeds and the
load power demands are correelated. The general performance
of a distribution system is obbserved to be altered when the
impacts of correlation are coonsidered. The most important
interpretation of the results cann be observed from the fact that
the real power loss is observedd to be minimum when both the
wind samples and load powerr injections are assumed to be
correlated. It shows that there is
i a relationship between the real
power loss and the various combinations of correlations
possible within the system. Further studies have to be
conducted to investigate the whholesome impacts of correlation
studies on real power loss and voltage profile variations of the
system. A plausible applicatioon of this research is to analyze
the implications of wind farms in large distribution networks
where correlation has to be takken into consideration. Also, the
collective change in load demannds due to various factors can be
accommodated in load flow stuudies using correlation analysis.
The load flow procedure is bound
b
to provide more realistic
results if all the possible corrrelation factors are taken into
consideration. The study may
m
be further extended by
considering correlation betw
ween wind power and load
demands. Consideration of othher renewable sources like solar

and biomass in the load flow study is another possible


adjunction to the research.

[9]

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