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Impact of wind correlation and load correlation on probabilistic load flow of radial distribution systems

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Systems

Sooraj Narayan K, Ashwani Kumar

Department of Electrical Engineering

NIT Kurukshetra

Haryana, India

soorajn14@gmail.com, ashwa_ks@yahoo.co.in

AbstractThis paper presents a probabilistic analysis of

radial distribution systems considering correlated nodal load

demands and correlated wind power sources. The loads and wind

power sources are modeled as probability distribution functions.

Cholesky factorization method is used to generate correlated

nodal power samples and correlated wind power injection

samples. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used for the

Probabilistic Load Flow (PLF) procedure. A comparison is

carried out for various scenarios of correlations. The power loss

variation and voltage profile variation for the various scenarios

are observed for the various scenarios. The results are analyzed

for an IEEE 33 bus radial distribution system.

KeywordsProbabilistic Analysis, Radial Distribution Network,

Correlated Nodal Load, Correlated Wind Power, Cholesky

Factorization.

I. INTRODUCTION

Utility deregulation and rise of competitive electricity

market has significantly scaled up the interest in Distributed

Generation (DG) in the recent past [1]. The performance

benefits that come with the integration of DG into the

distribution system especially solar and wind energy sources

has been well studied and analyzed [2]. The renewable

distributed sources of power are both cost-effective and

environmentally viable [3].

Uncertainty and intermittency of wind power source means

that the prediction of wind speed and the power produced by

the wind turbine can be implemented in a probabilistic manner

[4]. Since the loads connected to a distribution system may also

vary with time, weather and other factors, it can also be

modeled as a probabilistic variable [5]. Correlation or

dependence between wind power sources integrated at various

nodes in a distribution system may be included in the analysis

of the system for obtaining more realistic results [6]. Moments

and Cornish-Fisher expansion were used in [7] for probabilistic

load flow with correlated wind power. In [8], correlation

between generation, wind power and loads were considered for

the probabilistic load flow procedure. Uncertainty of wind

power and load correlation was considered for probabilistic

optimal load flow in [9]. In order to solve probabilistic load

flow with load correlation using DC load flow, an analytical

method was proposed in [10]. Hybrid Latin Hypercube

Sampling along with Cholesky Decomposition was used in

evaluation.

This paper performs a comparison study to analyze the

impacts of both load power correlation and wind power

correlation on probabilistic load flow of radial distribution

systems with integrated wind power sources. A comparison

between four different cases of correlation is considered for

performance studies.

The rest of the paper is as follows: Section II discusses the

load power modeling, substation voltages modeling and wind

power modeling. Section III discusses correlation and

dependence between random variables and also the generation

of correlated random numbers using Cholesky Factorization.

Section IV deals with the computational procedure of the

study. Section V deals with various case studies of load flow

with correlated wind power and load power. An IEEE 33 bus

radial distribution test system is used for study in this paper. A

program was developed in MATLAB 7.1 the study. The

program was run on an Intel Core(TM) i7-3770 3.70 GHz

processor. The results are analyzed and discussed in detail.

II. PROBABILISTIC MODELLING

A. Modeling of Load

The probabilistic nature of load at each node in a radial

distribution system can be implemented in the load flow

studies by modeling the loads as random variables distributed

with a variance about a mean value. In this paper, the load

demands at each bus are assumed to be random variables with

Normal distribution [12].

,

(1)

are the mean and standard deviation values of each load

power respectively.

B. Modeling of Substation Voltage

The substation voltage can also be modeled, similar to the

load modeling, as a normally distributed random variable.

[13].

(2)

where

is the substation bus voltage and , are the mean

and standard deviation values of substation voltage

respectively.

C. Wind Power Modeling

The real power output from a wind turbine is given by the

following equation [14].

0,

,

(5)

(3)

,

0,

where

is the cut-in speed of the wind turbine

wind velocity in m/s,

is the cut-out speed of the wind turbine in m/s,

in m/s,

is the rated

is the rated speed of the wind turbine in m/s,

power output of the wind turbine in MW,

and

Cholesky Factorization method [9] is used to generate

correlated random numbers in this paper. It is used to

decompose a symmetric positive-definite matrix into the

product of a lower triangular matrix and its conjugate

be a matrix containing non-correlated

transpose. Let

random numbers as its columns. Cholesky Factorization is

done to obtain a lower triangular matrix such that:

wind speed, which is intermittent. Hence, it can be modeled as

a random variable. Weibull distribution function has been used

to model wind speed in this paper. The Weibull distribution

function is a two parameter function which is used to describe

wind speed mathematically as:

,0

where is the wind speed,

the scale parameter [12].

(4)

is

In probability theory, correlation factor () is a term that is

used to show the degree of dependence between two random

variables. The value of may vary from -1 to +1. When two

random variables have high correlation or high dependence, the

absolute value of the correlation factor tends to be close to 1

[10]. Similarly, if there is no dependence between two

variables, the absolute value of correlation factor tends to be

close to 0. In this paper, the correlation is implemented by

considering correlated load demands and correlated wind

power injections.

A. Correlated Load Power Demands

Various factors that may affect the nodal load demands in a

distribution system, like social or environmental, may cause the

loads in a system to vary in a similar manner [8]. Generally, the

variation in loads may be due to interchangeable reasons.

Hence, a certain degree of dependence may be assumed

between various load demands.

B. Correlated Wind Power Injections

Since the distribution systems cover a comparatively lesser

area geographically, the various wind turbines connected to the

system may be assumed to be part of the same wind farm.

Hence, the inclusion of correlation between the power outputs

produced by these wind turbines becomes an essentiality for

load flow computation [7].

where

is the symmetric covariance matrix. The matrix of

can be

correlated random numbers as its columns (

obtained by the following transformation:

(6)

IV. COMPUTATIONAL PROCEDURE

Monte-Carlo Simulation is used to generate wind speed

samples from the Weibull parameters of the site. A large

sample size of 10000 or 20000 is normally required for

convergence of PLF using MCS. From the wind speed samples

obtained, wind power samples are also obtained from Equation

3. The MCS is also used to generate normally distributed

samples of nodal power demands with the respective mean and

variance. A wind farm with suitable Weibull parameters is

selected along with a wind turbine. The candidate nodes where

the wind turbine is to be placed are the farthest nodes in the

system. Then, the correlated wind speed and power samples,

along with the correlated load power samples, are generated

using Cholesky Factorization. Various scenarios are introduced

and PLF is carried out for the required number of MCS

samples in order to investigate the impacts of correlation on

voltage profile and power losses.

V. SIMULATION CASE STUDIES AND RESULTS

The studies were conducted on an IEEE 33 bus radial

distribution test system [14]. The base power of the system is

100 MVA and the base voltage is 12.66 KV. The total

connected active power load is 3.72 MW and reactive power

load is 2.30 MVAR. The wind turbines are placed at the

candidate nodes 18, 25 and 33, since these nodes are the

farthest nodes in the system and hence is bound to experience

severe voltage deviations [15]. A wind farm having the

Weibull parameters =1.75 and =8.78 [12] is selected for the

3

study. The wind turbine selected has the parameters

=20 m/s and =2.0 MW [16]. The same

m/s, =11.5 m/s,

wind turbine is placed on all the three candidate nodes. For the

PLF, the values of power demand at each bus are assumed to

be their respective mean values. A standard deviation of 10% is

set for every node. The mean and standard deviation of

substation voltage is set to 1.0 pu and 1.5% respectively [13].

The sample size of MCS is taken as 15000. A correlation factor

of 0.98 is taken for both wind power correlation and nodal load

power correlation. Four cases are included in the study, apart

from the base scenario. The base case is the scenario where no

wind power is injected and basic PLF is carried out. The total

active power losses in the system for the base case are

210.9824 MW.

(Case 1)

In this case, the wind speed generated and the power

injections at nodes 18, 25 and 33 are completely independent,

as shown in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 respectively. The load power

demands are also non-correlated, as shown in Fig. 3. The load

flow is performed by subtracting wind power injections from

their corresponding nodes for each MCS sample. The total real

power loss is observed to be 183.6966 KW.

B. Correlated Load and Non-Correlated Wind Power(Case 2)

In this case, the wind speed generated and the power

injections at nodes 18, 25 and 33 are completely independent,

but the load power demands are correlated with =0.98, as

shown in Fig. 4. The total real power loss is observed to be

183.106 KW.

Fig 4. Scatter diagram of correlated real power demand at the candidate nodes

In this case, the wind speed generated and the power

injections at nodes 18, 25 and 33 are correlated with =0.98, as

shown in Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 respectively. The load power

demands are independent in this case. The total real power loss

is observed to be 179.9314 KW.

D. Correlated Load and Correlated Wind Power (Case 4)

In this case, the wind speed generated and the power

injections at nodes 18, 25 and 33 are correlated with =0.98.

The load power demands are also correlated with =0.98. The

total real power loss is observed to be 179.3219 KW.

candidate nodes

cases. Fig. 8 shows the comparison of total real power losses

for the four cases. The real losses are seen to be minimum in

Case 4 and maximum in Case 1. Fig. 9 shows the comparison

of total reactive power losses for the four cases. The reactive

losses are seen to be minimum in Case 3 and maximum in Case

2.

nodes

Fig 5. Scatter diagram of correlated wind speed generated at the candidate

nodes

nodes

Fig 6. Scatter diagram of correlated wind power output at the candidate node

0.95

0.9

0.85

13 10

22 19 16

25

28

31

Bus Number

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Case 4

Voltage (pu)

40

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Case 4

30

20

10

0

1 3 5

7 9 11

13 15 17

19 21 23

25 27 29

31

Branch number

Fig 11. Comparison of branch reactive power losses for various cases

185

180

175

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Case 4

(KVAR)

Fig 12. Comparison of cdfs of voltagee profile at bus number 25 for various

cases

126

VI. CONC

CLUSIONS

124

122

120

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Case 4

the four cases. Similarly, Fig. 11 shows the comparison

c

of line

reactive power losses for the four cases. Fig.

F 12 shows the

Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the voltage at bus

number 25 for the various cases. It is observed that the voltage

CDF is inclined more towards unity in Caase 4 compared to

other cases. Hence the inclusion of correlattion has improved

the voltage CDF and reduced total active pow

wer losses.

50

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Case 4

1 3 5

7 9 11

13 15 17

19 21 23

5 27 29

25

Branch Number

31

Fig 10. Comparison of branch real power losses for variious cases

mpacts of correlated wind power

injections and correlated load power demands for a specific

value of correlation factor on a radial distribution system. Four

scenarios are considered and thhe load flow study is conducted

on a probabilistic perspective. A comparison of voltage profile

and real power losses is carriedd out. The total active power loss

is observed to minimum whenn both the wind speeds and the

load power demands are correelated. The general performance

of a distribution system is obbserved to be altered when the

impacts of correlation are coonsidered. The most important

interpretation of the results cann be observed from the fact that

the real power loss is observedd to be minimum when both the

wind samples and load powerr injections are assumed to be

correlated. It shows that there is

i a relationship between the real

power loss and the various combinations of correlations

possible within the system. Further studies have to be

conducted to investigate the whholesome impacts of correlation

studies on real power loss and voltage profile variations of the

system. A plausible applicatioon of this research is to analyze

the implications of wind farms in large distribution networks

where correlation has to be takken into consideration. Also, the

collective change in load demannds due to various factors can be

accommodated in load flow stuudies using correlation analysis.

The load flow procedure is bound

b

to provide more realistic

results if all the possible corrrelation factors are taken into

consideration. The study may

m

be further extended by

considering correlation betw

ween wind power and load

demands. Consideration of othher renewable sources like solar

adjunction to the research.

[9]

REFERENCES

[10]

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