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2013A
REV (M)
ACTUAL
CURR.
2014E
Q1 Mar
Q2 Jun
Q3 Sep
Q4 Dec
Year*
Change
$97A
108A
104A
162A
$470A
21.1%
$111A
132A
131A
183E
$557E
18.3%
Enterprise Software
2013A
PREV.
ACTUAL
CURR.
Q1 Mar
Q2 Jun
Q3 Sep
Q4 Dec
Year*
P/E
Change
($0.09)A
(0.02)A
0.05A
0.31A
$0.26A
120.3x
(2.4%)
($0.12)A
0.02A
0.01A
0.30E
$0.22E
142.3x
(15.5%)
PREV.
$30.13
Rating
OUTPERFORM
12-Month Price Target
$37
Steve Koenig
(415) 274-6801
steve.koenig@wedbush.com
Company Information
Shares Outst (M)
Market Cap (M)
52-Wk Range
Book Value/sh
Cash/sh
Enterprise Value (M)
LT Debt/Cap
90.1
$2,713.6
$20.17 - $31.55
$2.93
$2.69
$2,471.7
0%
Company Description
Qlik Technologies provides data discovery
solutions that allow users to make more
informed and quicker business decisions.
QlikView provides guided data analytics and
Qlik
Sense
provides
self-service
visualizations in a browser-based interface.
2015E
CONS.
CURR.
---$180E
$554E
$129E
149E
151E
215E
$645E
15.8%
CONS.
CURR.
---0.28E
$0.20E
($0.10)E
0.02E
0.05E
0.37E
$0.34E
90.2x
57.8%
2014E
EPS
Price
PREV.
CONS.
$128E
$148E
$149E
$212E
$638E
2015E
PREV.
CONS.
($0.10)E
0.02E
0.04E
0.38E
$0.34E
Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors
should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see page 33 of this
report for analyst certification and important disclosure information.
Investment Thesis
We are initiating coverage of QLIK with an OUTPERFORM rating and 12-month target price of $37. Our target price is based on
average of our EV/ revenue valuation ($38 based on a 5x EV/ revenue multiple applied to our FY15 estimate) and our 10-year DCF
valuation ($35). Risks to the attainment of our price target include competition from DATA, lack of market adoption of Qlik Sense, the
potential for improved products from BI majors, and poor execution by QLIK.
QLIK is a pioneer in data discovery analytics and has a major head start over legacy business intelligence (BI) vendors in the
transition to self-service and visual BI as data volumes grow exponentially. These data discovery solutions offer significant
functional and technical improvements over legacy BI solutions, including rich visualizations, on-the-fly analysis, flexible manipulation of
data, and rapid performance, all of which allow users to uncover insights previously inaccessible from legacy BI solutions.
We think the rapidly-growing market for data discovery tools will be big enough to support good performance from both
Tableau (DATA, OUTPERFORM) and QLIK. Spending on data discovery software is still only around 5% of total BI spending of
$14B+, giving this category ample room to grow its share of enterprise spending on analytics. The combined license revenue from the
top three data discovery vendors (Tableau, Qlik, and TIBCO) was $553M for CY13 and is expected by Gartner to grow at over 20% per
year through FY18; we believe this segment will see substantial upside to Gartner estimates. In 2013, the sub-segment grew at 33%
Y/Y versus 8% Y/Y for the overall BI market.
We expect QLIKs new products and roadmap can stabilize and then accelerate license growth by late next year. DATA has
blunted QLIKs momentum through its product advantages including ease-of-use and appealing interface and excellent marketing
execution. We believe competition from DATA is the primary factor behind QLIKs license deceleration (from 41% Y/Y growth in FY11
to 13% in FY13), although competitive issues have likely been exacerbated by execution issues as QLIK has transitioned towards more
direct selling without market awareness and lead generation programs on par with DATAs. QLIK has responded to DATAs success in
moving from self-service visualizations into mainstream BI competitions by creating a next-generation toolset that takes QLIK beyond
guided analytics into the self-service visualization space.
We dont think Sense will dent DATAs momentum, as it doesnt look to us to be on par with Tableaus ease-of-use, given its
reliance on scripting and wizards and more limited ability to analyze data sources directly, without importing them into
memory. However, Qlik Sense can help to stabilize QLIKs growth rate, as a free desktop product provides more effective lead
generation, and a simpler and more attractive interface improves QLIKs ability to win deals. We believe Senses JavaScript APIs and
browser-based interface are very differentiated, and could open the data discovery category to a population of roughly 10M web
developers at end customers and QLIK partners; this population is likely larger than the number of analysts and developers creating
applications with traditional BI tools. Early reviews of the product from industry analysts have been favorable, and our customer
conversations at the first Qlik World customer conference in early November indicated good interest in the product from customers.
We see a good probability that QLIKs product renewal could lead to better execution. Although investors have been
understandably concerned that QLIKs introduction of Sense and two-product strategy could cause its base to be reluctant to make
further investments in QlikView, the companys good 3Q execution QLIK saw license revenue grow 24% Y/Y suggests this risk can
be managed, although the evidence is admittedly inconclusive yet. With a differentiated browser-based product in Qlik Sense and an
improved QlikView 12 on the way next year, we dont think its a stretch to expect QLIK to be able to stabilize its license growth at the
low double-digit level and accelerate by at least several points into the mid-teens, as it accelerates its share gains against BI
incumbents.
Given our outlook for revenue acceleration due to Qlik Sense by late FY15 or FY16, we expect QLIK share price appreciation
based on expanding EV/ revenue multiples and a growing top line. In our experience, a forward EV/ revenue multiple of 4X is
relatively inexpensive for a software company with several years or more of good growth potential for new business intake. In addition,
we think QLIKs popular technology for guided analytics, coupled with its modern, web-based Qlik Sense architecture would make the
company an attractive acquisition target, should it choose to sell itself. Although QLIK looks expensive on a P/E basis, we think this
fairly reflects QLIKs margin expansion potential as it rights its execution.
Qlik Technologies | 2
Bull Case
QLIK Has Upset Incumbent BI Vendors and Looks Poised for Continuing Share Gains
The surge in data volumes and the evolution of BI are helping to drive adoption of guided analytics and self-service
visualization tools. These data discovery solutions offer significant functional and technical improvements over legacy BI solutions,
including rich visualizations, on-the-fly analysis, flexible manipulation of data, and rapid performance, all of which allow users to uncover
insights previously inaccessible from legacy BI solutions. These next-generation solutions seamlessly integrate with essentially all
widely-used data sources, allowing for more access to varying data types as well as correlation of data in diverse formats (including
Hadoop, machine data, and weblogs). More intuitive user interfaces and extensive self-service capabilities allow rapid adoption by
business and technical users. Their modern architectures facilitate easier and less costly deployments, although line-of-business (LoB)
data discovery requirements sometimes dont involve the same level of governance and IT manageability as IT-led BI standardizations,
making the comparison between legacy vendor and next-generation vendor deployments perhaps unfair.
QLIK has grown to be the largest pure-play data discovery vendor by building a better mousetrap than the BI incumbents and
creating a broad partner ecosystem. Although DATA is on the brink of surpassing QLIK in license revenues with its self-service
visualization product, QLIK has made significant inroads in the BI market by providing guided, visual analytics capabilities against large
amounts of data. QLIK has augmented its appeal to enterprises looking to develop custom BI applications by developing a large
ecosystem of 1700 application partners, resellers, and integrators. QLIKs growth has decelerated as DATA has grabbed mindshare
with its direct-connect, self-service tool for end users. However, we think this deceleration may be subsiding as the company rolls out
its innovative web-oriented Sense products, which we believe appeal to web developers and provide end users with better self-service
abilities than does QlikView. Our outlook is for QLIK to stabilize its revenue growth in the high-teens at constant-currency possibly
with some acceleration as soon as FY15 and then for QLIK to continue to outpace the overall BI market (8-9% growth) by a significant
amount.
Qlik Sense Desktop is an end-user-oriented tool (not really a developer tool) designed to enable better self-service visualization
capabilities than QlikView. The new product is an improvement over QlikView in terms of out-of-the-box usability, but we dont
think it will be sufficient to blunt DATAs momentum in self-service visualization, due to lack of parity in terms of supporting direct
connections to external data sources and overall simplicity and beauty of the user interface. Also, the product wont likely be
suitable for LoB or enterprise projects of any complexity due to its lack of security, data governance, and mobility support. Given
its zero-cost availability, Qlik Senses simple drag-and-drop features, improved visualizations, and relatively rapid time-to-use may
be sufficient to attract a wide range of trial users, generate awareness, and drive upsell activity to Qlik Sense Server. Also, the
product may help QLIK to protect its base by providing a self-service option from QLIK.
Were fairly optimistic about Qlik Sense Server, which we believe is the first major BI tool to be delivered via a browser. We believe
the product is appealing to JavaScript developers for web projects, a relatively untapped market for BI tools and distinct from the
classic power analyst/ BI developer market. Whereas enterprise BI departments are typically more comfortable with providing
analysts with a protected environment and simple scripting tools, we think many LoBs will be receptive to a tool with open APIs
targeted at JavaScript developers, but still providing enterprise-grade security and manageability. Also, QLIKs move to offer a
consumption-based pricing model in which developers utilize tokens eliminates the misalignment inherent in traditional CPUbased licensing models, which forces customers to make a trade-off between their desire to keep costs down and their need to
deploy it on sufficiently powerful servers. Given the relatively differentiated nature of this product, we think it is likely to see good
uptake in medium-size businesses and larger enterprises for web-based projects.
We think Qlik Sense can stabilize QLIKs growth rate, as a free desktop product provides more effective lead generation, and a simpler
and more attractive interface improves QLIKs ability to win deals. In addition, Senses JavaScript APIs should appeal to a large
population of web developers who need data visualization, including those at end customers and in QLIKs partner ecosystem. We
believe there are roughly 10M web developers globally, including perhaps 5M JavaScript developers, likely higher than the number of
analysts and developers creating applications with traditional BI tools. Early reviews of the product from industry analysts have been
Steve Koenig (415) 274-6801
Qlik Technologies | 3
favorable, and our customer conversations at the first Qlik World customer conference in early November indicated high interest in the
product from customers. Also, we are seeing activity in the web development community to exploit the growing popularity of D3.js, an
open-source JavaScript data visualization library, in conjunction with Qlik Sense, which we view as a promising sign.
We expect QLIKs new products and roadmap can stabilize and then accelerate license growth by late next year. Although
management is reluctant to disclose Qlik Sense sales results understandably so, since the product has only just been released we
believe the company is already seeing some wins with the product, including announced wins at AmerisourceBergen and Colliers
International. Although investors have been understandably concerned that QLIKs introduction of Sense and two-product strategy
could cause its base to be reluctant to make further investments in QlikView, the companys good 3Q execution QLIK saw license
revenue grow 24% Y/Y suggests this risk can be managed, although the evidence is admittedly inconclusive yet. In QlikView 12
(and probably in future versions of Qlik Sense too), QLIK is moving to address one of its primary competitive weaknesses against
Tableau, direct data discovery without having to keep data in memory. We believe its too early to tell how good QLIKs direct
connection functionality will be, but if QLIK can remedy its deficiencies, we think it can help to open up the self-service market for QLIK.
We estimate the market for self-service analytics for the 365M knowledge workers who use only spreadsheets as their analytics tool
could be worth $14B, the same order of magnitude as the traditional BI market. With a differentiated browser-based product (Qlik
Sense Server) and QlikView 12 on the way next year, we dont think its a stretch to expect QLIK to be able to stabilize its license
growth at the low double-digit level and accelerate by at least several points, into the mid-teens.
Qlik Technologies | 4
years and keeping QLIK range-bound between $18 and $37. If QLIK can stabilize its license growth and achieve modest acceleration
beginning later next year, we think investors will reward QLIK with a modestly higher EV/ revenue multiple (on higher revenue).
QLIK trades at a relatively attractive EV/ revenue multiple.
perspectives:
Relative to peers, QLIKs 3.9x EV/ revenue on our FY15 estimate ($645M) is below all companies in our comparisons analysis,
except for the challenged TIBCO, which is being acquired by private equity firm Vista Equity Partners. Our peer comparisons are
shown in Figure 19.
Relative to QLIKs historical trading multiples, the companys current forward EV/ revenue multiple of 4.5x is in the lower part of its
3-year range of 2.9x 6.8x since its IPO (see Figure 1).
Relative to other high-growth software companies, QLIK trades at a significant discount (see Figures 1 and 2) on an EV/ revenue
basis. Although QLIK is the slowest-growing company in our 12-company software growth index, QLIK trades below the growthadjusted EV/revenue line defined by the 12 companies.
Given our outlook for revenue acceleration due to Qlik Sense by late FY15 or FY16, we expect QLIK share price appreciation
based on expanding EV/ revenue multiples and a growing top line. In our experience, 4x EV/ revenue is a relatively inexpensive
valuation for a software company with several years or more of good growth potential for new business intake. In addition, we think
QLIKs popular technology for guided analytics, coupled with its modern, web-based Qlik Sense architecture would make the company
an attractive acquisition target, should it choose to sell itself. Although QLIK looks expensive on a P/E basis (90x our FY15 estimate of
$0.34), this multiple fairly reflects QLIKs margin expansion potential as it rights its execution, in our view.
10x
8x
6x
4x
2x
0x
QLIK
Qlik Technologies | 5
Figure 2: QLIKs EV/ Revenue is Currently Well Below High-Growth Software Peers, Even on a Growth-Adjusted Basis
WDAY
EV/Revenue CY14E
16.0 x
SPLK
PANW
14.0 x
DATA
12.0 x
PFPT
10.0 x
FEYE
MKTO
ULTI
8.0 x
CRM
6.0 x
CSOD
QLIK
4.0 x
INFA
2.0 x
0.0 x
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Bear Case
Tableau is Pressuring QLIKs Growth
While DATA is smaller than QLIK at the moment, it has been growing much faster than QLIK. DATAs revenue CAGR from FY09
is 72%, much higher than QLIKs CAGR during the same time period of 26%. Going forward, we expect DATAs growth trajectory to
be much steeper than QLIKs, with DATA expected to grow revenue at 71% and 46% Y/Y in FY14 and FY15, compared to expected
revenue growth at QLIK of 18% and 16% Y/Y, respectively. DATAs license revenue run rate is now about on par with QLIKs; although
DATA tends to have more 4Q seasonality than QLIK, DATA should easily surpass QLIK in license revenue for the full FY15.
QLIK is playing catchup to DATA in terms of ease-of-use, visual appeal, and marketing execution. QLIKs scripting and wizarddriven interface is fine for BI developers and power analysts, but until now, QLIKs value proposition to general business users has
been primarily that pre-defined guided visualizations are more powerful than those offered by traditional BI dashboards. Lacking
DATAs direct connection capabilities, QLIK requires a fair bit of curation by BI developers to be really useful, and is generally not
ready to be run by business people straight out of the box. In addition, DATA has trumped QLIK in creating an attractive visual
interface and also in developing a marketing engine with highly effective lead generation. We think Qlik Sense can stabilize QLIKs
growth rate, as a free desktop product provides more effective lead generation, and a simpler and more attractive interface improves
QLIKs ability to win deals. However, we dont think Sense will dent DATAs momentum, as it doesnt look to us to be on par with
Tableaus ease-of-use, given its reliance on scripting and wizards, more limited direct connect functionality (i.e., data must be imported
into QLIKs in-memory data engine), and variety of v1.0 limitations in areas such as crosstabs and printing.
QLIKs competitive issues have likely been exacerbated by execution issues. QLIK has had choppy execution over the last few
years, missing its revenue guidance in 3Q12 and 3Q13. We believe QLIKs execution has suffered not only from competition with
DATA, but also from insufficiently developed capabilities in its marketing and direct sales functions. As QLIK has shifted away from a
heavy reliance on its indirect channel, we believe direct sales execution has been somewhat inconsistent. In addition, QLIKs
marketing funnel has been less effective in attracting prospects than in later phases of the funnel (including converting opportunities
and expanding at existing customers), an issue that management is focused on remedying.
Qlik Technologies | 6
majority of their BI needs. We expect the incumbents to invest heavily to develop visualization and data discovery capabilities that can
compete with the likes of QLIK and DATA.
Price competition in the visualization market is likely to intensify going forward. We dont expect the incumbents to reach parity
with QLIK or DATA in data discovery any time soon, as their BI R&D initiatives suffer from the weight of requirements imposed by a
wide range of product groups inside each company, and their top managements attention is not highly focused on BI. However, we
think improvements to existing platforms may make their offerings good enough for some use cases, and aggressive price discounting
by incumbents could lead to growing price pressure in the data discovery market.
Macroeconomic, Geopolitical, and Exchange Rate Risks Could Negatively Impact QLIK
QLIK typically generates over 50% of its total revenues in Europe. Although QLIK has been growing its revenue fastest in the Americas
and other non-European geographies in recent years, Europe still accounted for 53% of revenues in FY13. Europes stagnant demand
conditions and strength in the U.S. dollar since September could pressure QLIKs optics, if not fundamentals. If current FX rates remain
unchanged, we estimate QLIK will experience about a 2% headwind to its as-reported revenue growth over the next several quarters.
In addition, geopolitical risks, such as tensions between the European Union and Russia, could perpetuate or increase cautiousness on
the part of customers.
Company Overview
QLIK offers guided analytics and self-service data visualization. QLIK is currently the largest vendor in the emerging data discovery
segment of the business intelligence (BI) market. The company serves more than 33,000 customers in approximately 100 countries,
including large global enterprises and small and mid-market organizations. The companys solution platform allows users to explore
live data in order to uncover insights and solve critical business problems through an easy to use and flexible BI solution. QLIKs
current flagship product, QlikView, offers a more technical-oriented solution to convert big data into relevant information, while also
creating and sharing insights across organizations. Its next-generation product offering, Qlik Sense, is targeted at business users and
offers more self-service with enhanced visualizations. The platforms in-memory engine enables faster analysis of data and offers
significant improvements in usability, flexibility, and performance at lower costs than traditional BI solutions. Since the companys U.S
initial public offering in July 2012, QLIK has been expanding its operations in North America as well as Asia and Latin America through
the support of its large global network of partners. QLIK was founded in Sweden 20 years ago and has a very large presence in
Europe. Its global headquarters is Radnor, Pennsylvania.
$470M
$450
$389M
Revenue ($, M)
$400
$350
$321M
$300
$227M
$250
$200
$157M
$150
$100
$50
$0
FY09
Licenses
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Professional Services
Qlik Technologies | 7
Number of
bytes
Binary value
Byte
Kilobyte (kB)
12
15
18
21
24
10
Megabyte (MB)
10
Gigabyte (GB)
10
Terabyte (TB)
10
Petabyte (PB)
10
Exabyte (EB)
Zettabyte (ZB)
Yottabyte (YB)
10
10
10
10
20
1 GB
1 TB
1 PB
1 EB
1 ZB
1 YB
30
40
50
60
70
80
Qlik Technologies | 8
12.0%
20,000
10.0%
15,000
8.0%
6.0%
10,000
4.0%
5,000
2.0%
0
25,000
0.0%
2011
2012
2013
Qlik Technologies | 9
The emergence of the data discovery market beginning in the mid-2000s was primarily driven by three upstart vendors:
Spotfire, Qlik, and Tableau. While stack vendors focused their BI efforts on digesting the large acquisitions of BI incumbents (SAP/
Business Objects, IBM/ Cognos, Oracle/ Hyperion), these agile new companies innovated in visualization, in-memory technology, and
user-friendly interfaces. Now, sales of these products are displacing incumbent license streams, as organizations look to leverage
existing BI back-end infrastructure with newer intuitive tools for business users. With this fast-developing trend BI usage has the
potential to expand from a niche market of IT users and data specialists into a much broader population. We believe adoption is
occurring across the spectrum of organizations in terms of size, ranging from large enterprises with diverse datasets to small
organizations of Excel users without significant back-end infrastructure. For many larger enterprises, a data discovery solution may be
the enterprises first truly self-service BI application, and for many SMBs, it will be the companys very first BI application.
We estimate the data discovery market is only about 5% of the broader $14B+ BI market, but the subset is growing rapidly.
The combined license revenue from the top three data discovery vendors (Tableau, Qlik, and TIBCO) was $553M for CY13 and is
expected by Gartner to grow at over 20% per year through FY18; we believe this segment will see substantial upside to Gartner
estimates. In 2013, the sub-segment grew at 33% Y/Y versus 8% Y/Y for the overall BI market. Spending on data discovery software is
still only around 5% of total BI spending, giving this category ample room to grow its share of enterprise spending on analytics. While
QLIK is not aiming to replace infrastructure lower in the BI stack such as data warehouses, pre-calculated cubes, master data
management, and ETL tools, we believe the company is poised to capture a significant share of IT spending on BI as it enhances its
products to meet enterprise requirements for security, API support, Linux support, query processing, and performing analytics at scale.
We believe that the potential TAM for data discovery could ultimately be much larger than the market for traditional business
analytics software. Gartner estimates that there are approximately 105M information workers that use traditional BI software. While
QLIK is seeing success in selling to these users by complementing existing BI infrastructure and/or replacing existing front-end tools,
the most important market opportunity for QLIK isnt necessarily existing BI users. Instead, it could be the 365M information workers
that utilize spreadsheets such as Microsoft Excel as their only analysis tool, and more generally the global count of 600M+ information
workers. A 4Q12 Forrester survey indicated that only 17% of information workers use a dashboard or other BI tool, and 59% of
information workers use spreadsheets. Spreadsheets are easier to use than traditional BI platforms, but they are limited in terms of
scalability for large data sets, connectivity to data sources, multi-user access to analysis and data, query and reporting capability,
visualizations, and performance. We estimate that these 365M information workers represent an approximate $14B annual market
opportunity, using a 15% penetration rate of the 365M workers and hypothetical annual revenue of $250 per user, which is 19% of the
$1,350 perpetual price for QlikView, and 17% of the $1,500 token price for QlikSense.
Qlik Technologies | 10
$112
$103
$100
$87
In millions
$80
$70 $67
$67
$61
$60
$58
$54
$53
$60
$48
$42
$40
$40
$34
$26
$54
$35
$32
$24
$27
$23
$22
$16
$20
$0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
FY13
Q4 E
FY14
Tableau
Qlik
TIBCO Spotfire
2008
9
58
67
Tableau Software
Qlik Technologies
TIBCO Spotfire
Total License Y/Y Growth (%)
Tableau Software
Qlik Technologies
TIBCO Spotfire
Total Revenue
Tableau Software
Qlik Technologies
TIBCO Spotfire
Total Revenue Y/Y Growth (%)
13
58
72
2009
12
100
41
153
2010
24
145
55
224
2011
44
204
83
332
2012
90
239
106
434
2013
160
271
118
549
2014E
266
301
100
666
2015E
366
334
105
805
CAGR
('09-'15)
33%
-29%
128%
107%
45%
33%
47%
83%
41%
51%
48%
102%
17%
27%
31%
78%
13%
12%
26%
66%
11%
-16%
21%
38%
11%
5%
21%
77.5%
22.3%
16.8%
31.9%
18
157
41
217
34
227
55
316
62
321
83
466
128
389
106
622
232
470
118
821
37%
88%
44%
33%
46%
83%
42%
51%
48%
105%
21%
27%
33%
82%
21%
12%
32%
-29%
203%
398
557
100
1,054
71%
18%
-16%
28%
580
645
105
1,330
46%
16%
5%
26%
78.2%
26.5%
16.8%
35.3%
Qlik Technologies | 11
Qlik Technologies (QLIK) is the largest visualization vendor in terms of overall license sales.
QLIK led the pure-play data discovery market in 2013 with $271M in license revenue and over 33,000 customers.
Although QLIK recorded a 32% CAGR between FY09 and FY13, the company has slowed markedly in recent quarters, which
we attribute primarily to competition with DATA. QLIK has a much larger presence outside of the U.S., especially in Europe
where it has its origins and former global headquarters in Sweden. QlikView, the companys main data discovery product,
features visual-based interactive exploration and analysis capabilities similar to Tableau and Spotfire. Similar to Tableau and
Spotfire, QlikView users are able to freely explore and find connections, patterns, and outliers in the data without having to
associate these data relationships in advance. The solution offers comprehensive integrations with all major external data
sources.
QlikView is a more IT-centric platform compared to Tableau, with a governed and curated solution. QlikView is a
guided analytics solution that provides governed data sources to BI developers for creating rich visualizations and dashboards
for end users. QLIKs product strength is its persistent in-memory data store and its applications partner ecosystem, which
have helped QLIK gain traction as a platform for custom or packaged visualization solutions. As a result, QLIKs sales process
and customer relationships tend to be more IT-oriented than DATA, which has a sharper focus on the business user. Our
checks suggest QlikView is better suited for various IT use cases that require custom development for analytic applications.
Also, QLIK sells a larger percentage of its licenses (55%) through the indirect channel, compared to DATA, which sells less
than 25% of its licenses through the indirect channel.
Qlik Sense is QLIKs most recent product release for its solution platform. Qlik Sense became generally available in
3Q14, with the launch of its token-based server version to complement the free desktop tool. Qlik Sense features a much
improved user-interface with more dynamic visualizations and a greater level of self-service. Qlik Sense features a wizardcentric user interface that addresses the enterprise offering gap between simple visualization solutions and complex BI reportcentric platforms. The new solution also contains enhanced features over QlikView.11 for associating data relationships and
comparing contrasting data sets. The product is browser-based and features an open API that enables web developers to
customize visualizations and applications using JavaScript and to use Sense as an analytics development platform.
$300M
$249M, 53%
$250M
$200M
$217M, 56%
$187M, 80%
$188M, 59%
$200M
$175M, 37%
$150M
$150M
$135M, 35%
$138M, 61%
$106M, 83%
$105M, 33%
$100M
$100M
$71M, 31%
$37M, 10%
$50M
$47M, 10%
$27M, 9%
$17M, 8%
$52M, 84%
$50M
$29M, 85%
$0M
FY10
FY11
FY12
$5M, 15%
FY13
$10M, 16%
$46M, 20%
$22M, 17%
$0M
Americas
Europe
Rest of World
FY10
FY11
United States and Canada
FY12
FY13
Rest of World
TIBX entered the data analytics market with its 2006 acquisition of Spotfire. Like Qlik and Tableau, TIBCO Spotfire features
standardized reporting with ad-hoc analysis, and rich data visualizations that guide users to relevant queries. Its visualization-based
interactive exploration and analysis capabilities are perceived to be superior to traditional BI vendors legacy platforms.
We believe Spotfire has better statistical analysis functionality than its pure-play competitors, and often sells into use cases requiring
predictive or Big Data analytics. TIBX has primarily focused on selling Spotfire into larger enterprises, but it has recently begun a more
concerted effort to sell into the SMB market. We believe TIBX has also had some success selling Spotfire to enterprises that have
already deployed TIBXs other integration and real-time event processing solutions. Starting in TIBXs 2Q13, Spotfire growth began to
slow down, and in its 1Q14, we believe license growth declined Y/Y, which we attribute to organizational challenges in scaling Spotfires
sales operation as well as competition from Tableau as DATAs enterprise land-and-expand strategy gains momentum. We are
skeptical of a quick turnaround in license growth in Spotfire, but with the right steps we think TIBX can return Spotfire to high single-digit
or low double-digit growth sometime in 2015.
Steve Koenig (415) 274-6801
Qlik Technologies | 12
th
On Dec. 5 2014, Vista Equity Partners completed its acquisition of TIBX. TIBX will continue to operate as TIBCO Software under the
leadership of the newly appointed CEO, Murray Rode, the former COO of the company. We expect Mr. Rode to work on expanding
margins in the core infrastructure business and stabilizing execution in Spotfire, while working to pivot TIBCO further into analytics.
$334M
$301M
$300
$271M
In millions
$266M
$239M
$250
$204M
$200
$160M
$145M
$150
$100M
$90M
$100
$118M
$106M
$100M
$105M
$83M
$55M
$41M
$50
$12M
$44M
$24M
$0
2009
2010
2011
Tableau Software
2012
Qlik Technologies
2013
2014E
2015E
TIBCO Spotfire
Microsoft lags other majors with just 10% share of the BI market in 2013, but we think Microsoft is QLIKs biggest long-term
threat, due to its ubiquity and large market footprint in the SMB and enterprise markets. Microsofts BI strategy has been to
incorporate its BI capabilities into its mostly widely used products to drive adoption. To this end, Microsoft has embedded BI
capabilities throughout its stack, including services in SQL Server, SharePoint, and Office. Microsofts Power BI is a collection
of services for SQL Server, SharePoint, Office 365, and Office (including add-ins for Excel and PowerPoint), including Power
View, Power Pivot, and SQL Server Analysis Services (SSAS). While the current product set has superior data modeling,
pivoting, and multi-dimensional capabilities to Qlik products, we believe its visual analytic and dashboard capabilities are much
less developed. Microsofts ETL capabilities are more developed than QLIKs although its functionality is SQL Server-centric
but QLIK excels in data connectivity due to its investment in developing a large library of drivers for diverse vendor data
sources. Also, we hear that on-premise setups for Microsoft BI are complicated, requiring knowledgeable BI, SharePoint, and
network admin resources, unlike QLIKs business user-friendly setups. Pricing for Power BI varies depending on what
components are used, from about $250/year per user (for basic Excel capabilities) to over $600 for Office 365 with Power BI.
Adding SharePoint and SQL Server upcharges required to use Power BI or cloud solutions can run deployments to $200,000
and above. We think Microsoft is working to improve the visualization capabilities of Power BI, which could make it more
competitive with QLIK over the next few years. However, connectivity to non-Microsoft data sources is likely to remain
Microsofts Achilles heel in data discovery. Outside of its traditional BI stack, Microsoft is developing machine learning
capabilities for data in the Azure cloud platform. Called Azure Machine Learning, the initial offering lets power users and data
Qlik Technologies | 13
scientists to mine data and build predictive models using ML Studio, an integrated development environment that supports the
R programming language for statistical analysis.
SAP leads the $14B traditional BI market with a 21% market share in 2013. Its enterprise BI tool, Business Objects, is deeply
entrenched at customers and is often viewed as an enterprise standard. SAP has a large global sales, support, channel, and
system integrator ecosystem for Business Objects. The company has invested in several emerging technologies, including
cloud, predictive, and in-memory analytics with its Hana database. SAP Visual Intelligence, introduced in May 2012, is a
desktop data analysis tool that connects to Hana and external data sources, and is available as a stand-alone offering or addon to Business Objects Explorer.
Oracle has the second largest BI market share (14%) in 2013 and is the leader in CPM suites. Oracle Business Intelligence
Enterprise Edition (which originated with its acquisition of Siebel in 2005) is primarily used as a system of record for static and
parameterized reporting. Its Hyperion product line targets enterprise performance management, analytic applications
including KPIs and dashboards, as well as multi-dimensional query and reporting typically required by the office of finance in
large enterprises. With the acquisition of Endeca in 2011, ORCL enhanced its capabilities in text search and analysis of
unstructured data.
IBM had 13% of the BI market in 2013. IBM has a broad range of BI products, led by IBM Cognos, which is designed to
analyze financial and operational data at large and midsized businesses. Cognos has solutions for reporting, ad hoc query,
and enterprise performance management. With SPSS, IBM also addresses the market for predictive analytics, which employs
statistical modeling to help with forecasting and the automation of real-time decision processes such as insurance
underwriting. While IBM released a data visualization product called Cognos Insight in 2012, we havent seen much evidence
of market traction. While we think IBM is interested in using M&A to close the competitive gap in data discovery, our checks
suggest potential deals have been scuttled by the weight of requirements demanded by diverse product groups inside the
company that wish to integrate with any acquired technology. Now, IBM appears more focused on commercializing its naturallanguage query and machine learning capabilities developed in its Watson project to enable non-technical users to perform
smart data discovery using a cloud-based tool. Although the company has made a few marketing announcements, this
initiative appears to be mostly in the research phase and is not broadly commercialized.
SAS controlled 12% share of the overall BI market in 2013 with a broad suite of analytics products. SAS rose to prominence
with its tools for data mining and statistical analysis, e.g., for time series analysis in data warehouses. SAS has become a
leader in a variety of market-specific solutions for predictive analytics, advanced analytic scenarios, and use cases for fraud,
risk, supply chain, and retail analytics.
Other Vendors,
$3,172M, 22%
Microsoft,
$1,379M, 10%
IBM, $1,820M,
13%
Tableau, $227M,
1%
MicroStrategy,
$420M, 3%
Qliktech, $431M,
3%
Oracle, $1,994M,
14%
SAS, $1,696M,
12%
SAP, $3,057M,
21%
Qlik Technologies | 14
Multi-source Data Integration: QlikView transforms and combines multiple data sources including Excel spreadsheets,
ODBC databases, operational systems, web sources, and custom connectors without the need for external data repositories. It
also connects to Big Data sources in real time for users analyzing large data sets that cannot be stored in memory.
Visual Overview of Data Association: Users can visually discover data associations instantly though the interactive
dashboard. User selections are highlighted in green, whereas all the related objects on the dashboard are highlighted in white.
Data not associated with the selection is highlighted in gray, offering live feedback that can lead to unexpected business
insights.
Smart Search: Users can discover new associations and insights in data sets using keywords. Search provides direct results
of the keywords as well as their associations with other data in the application.
Qlik Sense is the companys most recent product release for its solution platform. Qlik Sense was officially launched on Sept.
17, 2014. Qlik Sense uses dynamic charts and figures to visualize and provide the data while also allowing users to easily manipulate
the data by size, shape, color, brightness, and motion of visual objects. Qlik Sense features a wizard-centric user interface that
addresses the enterprise offering gap between simple visualization solutions and complex BI report-centric platforms. The solution is
based on the same data architecture as QlikView, with enhanced features over QlikView for associating data relationships and
comparing contrasting data sets. Qlik Sense utilizes principles of natural analytics that should help it to expand its addressable market.
TM
The solution taps into QLIKs Natural Analytics approach, which utilizes the natural human ability to process complex information. It
allows users to process information more intuitively by making it easier to sort and categorize items into groups in order to reveal
meaning, recognize patterns and outliers, and ultimately anticipate what is going to happen next based on what has happened.
Additional features of Qlik Sense include:
Smart Visualization: Reports and dashboards can be created in minutes using a simple drag-and-drop interface. Reports
and dashboards are flexible and can be modified on the fly to achieve user objectives. Visualizations are integrated with the
QIX engine, and live queries are automatically generated based on user actions.
Data Storytelling: Qlik Sense provides a dynamic data presentation module that allows users to create guided stories by
adding narrative, graphics, and snapshots of data to presentation slides. Snapshots can be taken on any object in the
dashboard at the desired point in time, and can be drilled down further to reveal the underlying data in Qlik Sense.
Mobility: Qlik Sense is built as a mobile-first solution. It is based on a touch-based HTML5 language, which provides a
uniform user experience across multiple devices.
We expect Qlik Sense to feature improved back-end data integration functionality that should make the product simpler to use
and more enterprise-ready. While the front-end visualization has yet to be tested against Tableau, the back-end functionality
improvements should close the gaps, making QLIK more competitive against legacy BI vendors, such as SAP, IBM, and Oracle. Qlik
Sense will have open interfaces through all the widely-used APIs, making the new product very easy to embed in other environments
and with other applications. With Qlik Sense, developers will have greater flexibility at the complex end of the use case range.
Qlik Sense and QlikView can share the same data model are converging to use the same data engine. A common data layer
allows new developments to be integrated more efficiently and evokes confidence in users adopting the products. Qlik Sense and the
Steve Koenig (415) 274-6801
Qlik Technologies | 15
upcoming QlikView 12 (expected next year) are powered by the enhanced QIX Associative Data Indexing engine, which reveals the
relationships among all the data in the application that are typically hidden in traditional BI solutions. As a result, users are not bound
by predetermined configurations and have the freedom to analyze the data in new ways. QLIKs solution platform in-memory engine
enables rapid analysis of data and large improvements in usability, flexibility, and performance over legacy BI tools. The platform holds
data needed for immediate analysis in memory, allowing for instant access and responsive visualizations, and the most commonly
called calculations and results are cached. The solutions architecture is based on a multi-user, distributed environment that stores
common calculations and enables sharing of the calculations amongst users. The solution can be clustered to provide load balancing
and fail over capabilities for large enterprise deployments. In QlikView 12, QLIK is moving to address one of its primary competitive
weaknesses against Tableau, direct data discovery without having to keep data in memory. Since QLIK hasnt unveiled its functionality
yet, its too early to tell how good QLIKs direct connection functionality will be, but if QLIK can remedy its deficiencies, we think it can
help to open up the self-service market for QLIK.
For the near term, QLIK will be taking a two-product strategic approach. While Qlik Sense is likely to account for the majority of
new license growth, we expect QLIK to continue to invest in QlikView and support existing QlikView customers for at least the next
several years or as long as there is sufficient customer demand, i.e., a minimal hurdle level for maintenance fees and renewals. FY14
revenue guidance is based solely on contribution from QlikView, given the 5-6 month sales cycle and pipeline build for the product, with
minimal cannibalization from Qlik Sense. Beginning in 2Q14, management held full-year revenue guidance steady, despite quarterly
revenue outperformance to account for the potential purchasing delays of QlikView by customers in anticipation of an upcoming new
product introduction for Qlik Sense. For FY15, we expect QLIK to fully take a two-product strategic approach, leading with QlikView for
Steve Koenig (415) 274-6801
Qlik Technologies | 16
upselling to existing customers and leading with Qlik Sense to sell to new customers. In the near term, ratably recognized revenues
from Qlik Sense will cause revenue growth rates to appear to ramp slower than if they were recognized under the traditional perpetual
approach, in which license revenues are recognized upfront. However, in the longer term, we expect QLIK to benefit from moving
towards a consumption-based model because it will ultimately smooth revenues over time.
We expect QLIK to promote Qlik Cloud as the third piece of the solution platform once development for Qlik Sense matures.
Qlik Cloud is still in beta development, and QLIK has yet to market this product to the public. Qlik Cloud is expected to provide a free
cloud service for users that want to share apps and analysis developed with the Qlik Sense Desktop product.
Qlik Technologies | 17
Tokens provide greater financial flexibility, as the users can manage product usage and avoid committing to high upfront license cost if
user demand is uncertain. QLIKs approach is based on a Client Access Licenses (CAL) using two types of access passes. User
Access Pass is a unique identifier for a named user that grants unlimited access to Qlik Sense resources. Each token corresponds to
one User Access Pass. Login Access Pass is a 60-minute session that refreshes every 28-day period; additional passes are used if a
user is logged in for more than 60 minutes. One token corresponds to 10 Login Access Passes (a.k.a. an Access Pool). Customers
can reallocate tokens between access passes and access pools as needed.
Qlik Technologies | 18
how to streamline QlikView deployment, improve response times, and expand deployments to new use cases, and the education
services team provides a clear path to customer success and faster user adoption.
QLIK utilizes a direct sales force and an indirect partner channel. Compared to its peers, the company relies more heavily on its
channel partner network (55% of total revenue in FY13) than direct sales (45% of total revenue in FY13). The direct sales force is
aligned by vertical and geography. We believe it takes internal sales reps 3 to 6 months to become fully productive and enterprise
sales reps 9 to 12 months to become fully productive. The company heavily relies on its large partner network (over 1,700 partners) of
solution providers (resellers), original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and system integrators, especially when expanding into new
territories and geographies where it does not have a direct sales presence. QLIK utilizes its distribution partnerships and agreements
with solution providers to enter new markets before adding its own direct sales force in the region. QLIKs global partner network
includes different tiers of resellers: master, elite, and basic. Master resellers oversee sales for an entire geography or region where
QLIK has no direct sales force present, and designation between elite resellers versus basic reseller is determined by sales volume.
The company also licenses its solution toolset to its partners for the creation of applications for industry vertical and business line
specific problems. OEM and technology partners, which often include software, data management, and analytics companies, also use
QlikView to bundle with their own products or as an add-on feature for their products and services. OEMs typically account between
5%-10% of total billings in a given year. OEMs accounted for 8% of total billings in FY13.
QlikCommunity is a user-driven collaborative community that drives the QLIK brand and promotes the use of the companys software.
The community offers low-cost support and features discussion forums, user groups, blogs, feedback and review of QLIK products.
QLIKs product management team can obtain valuable insights from feedback and discussions for product development and
enhancements.
Financial Analysis
$645M
600
$557M
Revenue ($, M)
500
$470M
$389M
400
$321M
300
$227M
200
$157M
100
0
FY09
FY10
Licenses
FY11
FY12
Maintenance
FY13
FY14E
Professional Services
FY15E
Qlik Technologies | 19
Maintenance and services revenue has grown from $41M in FY09 to $161M in FY13, or at a 40% CAGR. We expect maintenance and
service revenue to grow to $207M in FY14 or 29% Y/Y. QLIK has increased its share of maintenance and services revenue as a
percentage of total revenue from 26% in FY09 to 34% in FY13, as rapid license growth drove higher maintenance streams and larger
deployments in more complex IT environments required more extensive use of professional services. We estimate that maintenance
and service revenues will comprise approximately 37% of total revenue in FY14.
QLIK generates revenue from three geographic regions: Americas, Europe, and the Rest of World, which mostly consists of revenue
from the Asia-Pacific region. QLIK started its operations in Europe and has a strong market presence in the region; 53% of total
revenues in FY13 were from Europe, although this is down from 61% in FY10. The Americas region has grown its share of total
revenue from 31% in FY10 to 37% in FY13. Given the size of the U.S. market and the relatively low level of penetration, we expect that
QLIK to focus its growth efforts in the U.S. as it presents a large market opportunity and a big contributor to future revenue growth.
However, competition in the U.S. will remain intense as QLIK competes in a crowded visualization against DATA, TIBCO Spotfire, and
other legacy BI vendors. The Rest of World region has grown its share of total revenue from 8% in FY10 to 10% in FY13.
$200M
$175M, 37%
$150M
$135M, 35%
$138M, 61%
$105M, 33%
$100M
$71M, 31%
$37M, 10%
$50M
$47M, 10%
$27M, 9%
$17M, 8%
$0M
FY10
FY11
Americas
FY12
Europe
FY13
Rest of World
Qlik Technologies | 20
35
$31
$35
90.0%
80.0%
$30
30
70.0%
25
60.0%
20
15
50.0%
$15
40.0%
30.0%
10
20.0%
5
10.0%
40
0.0%
FY09
FY10
Operating Income
FY11
Gross Margin
FY12
FY13
Operating Margin
Qlik Technologies | 21
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
3Q14 Results
QLIK reported 3Q14 revenues of $131.3M (+6% Y/Y), above consensus of $124.2M, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.01, above consensus
of $0.00. Revenue for the quarter was driven by larger commitments from existing enterprise and SMB customers, and to a small
degree, the launch of the companys self-service visualization tool, Qlik Sense. Direct channel accounted for 48% of licenses and first
year maintenance in 3Q14, up from 41% in 3Q13, and the indirect channel accounted for 52% of licenses and first year maintenance in
2Q14, down from 59% in 3Q13
License revenue grew 24% Y/Y, driven by strong large deal activity and new customer additions. License revenue was
$68M, up 24% Y/Y from $55M last year, and accounted for 51% of the total revenue mix, down from 52% in 3Q13. QLIK closed
108 deals over $100K and 23 deals over $250K, down from 111 and 27, respectively in the prior year. Although the number of
such deals fell for the quarter, the average value of the deals was much larger, raising revenue significantly. QLIK also recorded
seven deals over $1M, up from three in 3Q13 (+133% Y/Y). During the quarter QLIK also added a significant new customer
account, Canadian Pacific Railway, which will deploy QlikView to scale and manage Canadian Pacifics large data volumes.
Maintenance and professional services revenues benefited from continued commitments from existing customers.
Maintenance and service revenue was $52M and $12M, respectively, up from $41M and $9M in 3Q13. Total maintenance was
39% of the total revenue mix, remaining relatively flat year-over-year. Professional services revenue accounted for 9.2% of the
total revenue mix, up from 8.5% in 3Q13.
All geographic regions grew by double-digit percentages in constant currency year-over-year. Americas reported $52M in
revenue, up 27% Y/Y, and contributed 40% of total revenue, flat from the prior year. Europe generated $63M in revenue, up 21%
Y/Y. Europe contributed 48% of total revenue in 3Q14, down from 50% in 3Q13. Sales for the rest of the world were $16M, up
48% Y/Y and 50% in constant currency. This region accounted for 12% of revenue in 3Q14, up from 23% in 3Q13. The strong
growth in revenue was driven by strong expansion in the Asia-Pacific region.
Gross margin remained flat, but operating margin declined year-over-year. Gross margin was 87% in 3Q14, flat from 3Q13.
Non-GAAP operating income was $2.6M, down from $6.0M in 3Q13, and non-GAAP operating margin decreased to 2.0%, down
from 5.7% in 3Q13. Operating margins were below expectations due to further investments in innovation and QLIKs focus in
developing pipelines and sales management. Sales and marketing expenses increased to 53% of revenue, up from 51% the prior
year. R&D expenses increased to 15% of revenue, up from 12% in 3Q13, and G&A expense fell slightly to 17% of revenue, down
from 18% in 3Q13.
Qlik Technologies | 22
Starting in 3Q14, QLIK adopted a two-product strategy to meet broader analytics needs. Management views QlikView and
Qlik Sense as complementary products that combine to satisfy a full breadth of analytical needs, and expects minimal cannibalism
between the products. The demand for self-service analytics from the 600M+ knowledge workers are met with Qlik Sense by
allowing users to hypothesize the data, and these hypothesized data can be translated into guided analytics using QlikView. 3Q
results seem to support managements strategy. During the quarter, sales of QlikView improved following the evaluation period of
Qlik Sense in July, and Qlik Sense also generated better than expected sales. We expect QLIK to maintain its two-product
approach for the foreseeable future as it ramps up development for Qlik Sense.
2Q14 Results
QLIK reported 2Q14 revenues of $131.6M (+22% Y/Y), above consensus of $125.3M, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.02, above
consensus of $0.03). Total revenues increased to $131.6M from $108.0M in 2Q13, or up 22% Y/Y. License revenues increased to
$66.9M from $60.5M in 2Q13, or up 11% Y/Y. License revenues made up 51% of total revenues, down from 56% of total revenue in
th
2Q13. QLIK booked 109 deals over $100K in 2Q14, which is up from 104 deals in 2Q13. 2Q14 was the 12 quarter in a row, back
from 3Q11, where existing customers represented more than 70% of the quarters license bookings, which is a reflection on the higher
incremental value associated with higher indexing limits. Software bookings in 2Q14 were $131M, up 23% Y/Y from $107M in 2Q13.
Total deferred revenue was $113M at the end of 2Q14, up from $88M in 2Q13 and down slightly from $114M in 1Q14. The Americas
generated revenue of $47M in 2Q14, up 23% Y/Y, and it accounted for 35% of total revenue in 2Q14, flat from 35% of total revenue in
2Q13. Europe generated revenue of $70M in 2Q14, up 21% Y/Y, and it accounted for 53% of total revenue in 2Q14, down from 54% of
total revenue in 2Q13. The Rest of World generated revenue of $15M in 2Q14, up 20% Y/Y, and it accounted for 11% of total revenue
in 2Q14, flat from 11% of total revenue in 2Q13.
The direct channel accounted for 48% of licenses and first year maintenance in 2Q14, up from 43% in 2Q13, and the indirect channel
accounted for 52% of licenses and first year maintenance in 2Q14, down from 57% in 2Q13. Non-GAAP operating income increased to
$2M, up from a loss of -$2M in 2Q13. Non-GAAP operating margin increased to 1.8% from -1.8% in 2Q13. Cash and cash equivalents
were $255M at the end of 2Q14, compared to $253M at the end of 1Q14. Cash flows from operating activities were $23M in 1H14,
compared to $24M in 1H13. QLIK ended 2Q14 with over 33,000 customers and 1,928 employees, up from 29,000 customers and
1,568 employees in 2Q13.
For 4Q14, management provided revenue guidance of $176M - $181M and non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 $0.30. Non-GAAP
operating income is expected to be $35M to $39M. 4Q14 guidance incorporates negative currency impacts on revenue of
$7.4M. The company expects to have 92M diluted shares outstanding and a non-GAAP tax rate of 30%.
For FY14, management provided revenue guidance of $550M - $555M and non-GAAP EPS of $0.18 - $0.22. Non-GAAP
operating income is expected to be $26M to $30M. Full-year guidance incorporates negative currency impacts on revenue of
$9.6M since guidance from July. The company expects to have 91M diluted shares outstanding and a non-GAAP tax rate of
30%.
At its Financial Analyst Meeting on Nov. 11, 2014, management announced financial objectives for FY15. Management
expects to accelerate revenue growth above the FY14 guidance of 17% - 18% and anticipates currency headwinds of 2% 3%. Detailed FY15 guidance will be provided in its 4Q earnings report in February.
Our Estimates
For 4Q14, our total revenue/EPS estimates of $183M / $0.30 are slightly above consensus revenue estimates of $180M and
above consensus EPS estimates of $0.28. We estimate license revenues will be $112M.
For FY14, our total revenue/EPS estimates of $557M / $0.22 are above consensus revenue estimates of $554M and above
consensus EPS estimates $0.20. We estimate license revenues will be $301M.
Qlik Technologies | 23
Company Management
Lars Bjork is currently President and Chief Executive Officer. He has been a member of the Board since October 2004.
From August 2006 to October 2007, Mr. Sullivan served as Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer, and from
August 2000 to August 2006, he served as Chief Financial Officer. Prior to QLIK, Mr. Bjork served as Chief Financial Officer
at ScandStick, a manufacturer of adhesive material. Mr. Bjork received an M.B.A. from the University of Lund and an
Engineering Degree from the Technical College in Helsingborg, Sweden.
Tim MacCarrick has served as Chief Financial Officer since July 2013. Between June 2010 and June 2013, Mr. MacCarrick
served as Chief Operating Officer at De Lage Landen, and from July 2008 to May 2010, he served as the Corporate Vice
President and Chief Financial Officer for Crane Co. Mr. MacCarrick received an M.B.A. in Finance and a B.S. in Accounting
from Clarkson University.
Leslie Bonney has served as Chief Operating Officer since March 2011. Between March 2010 and March 2011, Mr. Bonney
served as Executive Vice President of Global Field Operations, and between October 2007 and March 2010, he was Senior
Vice President of Worldwide Sales. He has held other managerial positions at QLIK since January 2004. Mr. Bonney
received a B.S. in Marine Biology from James Cook University.
Anthony Deighton has served as Chief Technology Officer and Senior Vice President since September 2001. He served as
Senior Vice President, Products between January 2005 and September 2011. Previously, he was the General Manager of
Siebel Systems Employee Relationship Management business unit among other product marketing roles at Siebel Systems
from October 1999 to January 2005. Mr. Deighton received an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School and a B.A. in
Economics from Northwestern University.
Valuation
QLIK shares are currently trading at an EV/revenue multiple of 4.5x CY14E and 3.9x CY15E, below the peer group median of 13.5x
CY14E and 9.5x CY15E. These multiples are also lower than other similarly-sized, fast growing peers with large TAMs, such as
Tableau, which is trading at 12.6x CY14E and 8.7x CY15E, and Splunk (SPLK, OUTPERFORM), which is trading at 15.7x CY14E and
11.6x CY15E. QLIK shares are currently trading at an EV/FCF multiple of 89.7x CY14E and 57.1x CY15E, below the CY14E peer
group median of 195.2x CY14E and 82.7 CY15E. On a 12-month forward basis, QLIK shares are trading at an EV/revenue multiple of
4.1x, about 51% below our high-growth software indexs multiple of 8.4x. This discount is in line with QLIKs three-year historical
median discount of 55%.
Our 12-month target price of $37 is an average of our EV/revenue and DCF approaches. We apply a 5x EV/revenue multiple to our
CY15 revenue estimate of $6.96/share and add back $3.21/share in cash to produce a $38 valuation. Our long-term DCF valuation of
$35 is based on a WACC of 12.7%, beta of 1.7 and terminal value EV/FCF multiple of 30x in CY24E. Our valuation uses operating
margin and revenue growth assumptions that we regard as conservative.
Qlik Technologies | 24
Figure 17: Forward EV/Rev vs. High Growth Software Average Figure 18: EV/Rev Discount to High-Growth Software Average
10%
16x
0%
14x
-10%
12x
-20%
10x
Forward EV/ Revenue
-30%
8x
-40%
6x
-50%
4x
-60%
2x
-70%
0x
-80%
QLIK
QLIK Discount
Risks
Risks to the attainment of our price target include:
QLIKs rich valuation carries high growth expectations. Deceleration or an earnings hiccup could cause multiples to
contract. Macroeconomic concerns, including any slower than anticipated recovery in employment could also pressure
shares.
Increased competition from legacy BI vendors. Competitors with stronger distribution channels could improve their product
capabilities enough to pressure QLIKs pricing power and revenue growth.
Qlik Technologies | 25
Earnings
Net
Market Shares
Cash Cap ($ Out.
per sh. MM)
(MM)
Rating
Price
Target
Price
Name
Wedbush Securities Estimates
Qlik Technologies
QLIK
OUTPERFORM
$37
$30.78
$2.69
2,772
90
OUTPERFORM $78
OUTPERFORM $98
OUTPERFORM $104
Not Covered
NC
Not Covered
NC
Not Covered
NC
Not Covered
NC
$62.61
$82.20
$83.65
$118.84
$62.03
$106.35
$15.94
$7.55
$9.35
$7.30
$3.72
$1.41
$2.07
$0.58
7,943
5,669
15,418
9,572
9,199
8,161
775
127
69
184
81
148
77
49
Ticker
SPLK
DATA
WDAY
PANW
NOW
N
CALD
LT EPS
EPS
growth
CY 14
(%)
EPS
CY 15
Revenues
PE
PE
CY 14E CY 15E
PE/G
Rev.
Rev.
EV/rev EV/rev
CY14E CY15E
CY14E CY15E
($mm) ($mm)
FCF
CY14E
/share
FCF
EV/FCF EV/FCF
CY15E
CY14E CY15E
/share
%
Shares
Short
90.0 x
7.1
557
645
4.5 x
3.9 x
$0.31
$0.49
57.1 x
1%
10%
52.8
15.9 x
-13.9 x
4.8 x
-14.8
13.8
3.8
446
398
789
693
664
550
130
601
580
1,152
974
942
723
162
15.7 x
12.6 x
17.8 x
13.4 x
13.5 x
14.6 x
5.8 x
11.6 x
8.7 x
12.2 x
9.5 x
9.5 x
11.1 x
4.6 x
$0.67
$0.37
$0.34
$0.81
$0.06
$0.45
$0.32
$0.98
82.1 x
56.2 x
$0.38 195.2 x 192.6 x
$0.43 224.5 x 179.2 x
$2.44 142.3 x
47.2 x
$0.73 1029.1 x
82.7 x
$0.97 231.6 x 107.1 x
$0.43
48.6 x
35.3 x
1%
1%
NM
1%
1%
1%
1%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
4%
3%
13.5 x
4.4 x
9.5 x
4.1 x
1%
4%
4%
4%
20%
24%
15%
$0.22
$0.34
142.1 x
220.4 x 221.5 x
22.1 x
19.9 x
4.8
1.8
Short int.
TTM
FCF
Yield
Qlik Technologies | 26
89.7 x
195.2 x
23.4 x
82.7 x
25.8 x
3/13
FY13
6/13
9/13
12/13
3/14
96.5
108.0
161.8
111.1
104.1
FY14E
6/14
9/14
131.6
131.3
12/14E
3/15E
FY15E
6/15E
9/15E
182.7
129.2
149.3
150.9
12/15E
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
215.5
320.6
388.5
376-386
470.5
556.8
644.9
752.0
545-555
545-555
545-555
550-555
554.1
$0.22
638.2
$0.34
737.3
$0.51
.23-.27
.23-.27
.23-.27
.18-.22
$0.20
$0.34
$0.53
87-91
465-475
471-481
473-481
465-470
104-108
105-109
156-161
110-114
124-128
122-126
91.3
($0.09)
106.6
($0.02)
107.9
$0.05
158.2
$0.31
113.2
($0.12)
125.3
$0.02
124.2
$0.01
176-181
128.2
179.7
($0.10)
$0.30
147.6
$0.02
149.0
$0.05
211.8
$0.37
319.9
$0.27
377.9
$0.26
.31-.35
(.15)-(.12)
467.0
$0.26
.39-.42
.41-.44
.37-.41
.23-.26
(.02)-0
.02-.04
.28-.31
(.14)-(.12)
(.04)-(.02)
(.02)-.01
($0.12)
($0.01)
$0.04
$0.30
($0.05)
($0.03)
$0.00
.26-.30
$0.28 ($0.10)
$0.02
$0.04
$0.38
($0.03)
$0.24
$0.25
Qlik Technologies | 27
FY13
6/13
FY15E
6/15E
9/15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
54.5
40.7
8.9
104.1
103.1
45.7
13.0
161.8
53.9
45.8
11.4
111.1
66.9
50.9
13.8
131.6
67.5
51.8
12.1
131.3
112.4
54.1
16.3
182.7
58.2
56.4
14.6
129.2
72.6
60.8
15.8
149.3
72.9
62.5
15.5
150.9
130.4
64.9
20.1
215.5
204.4
89.1
27.1
320.6
238.7
120.5
29.4
388.5
270.8
160.6
39.1
470.5
300.7
202.6
53.5
556.8
334.1
244.7
66.1
644.9
379.4
290.8
81.9
752.0
Licenses cost
Maintenance cost
Professional Services cost
Total cost of Revenue
Gross profit
1.6
2.9
9.8
13.7
82.8
1.5
2.5
10.5
13.9
94.1
1.5
2.5
11.0
14.0
90.1
2.7
2.7
12.5
17.3
144.5
1.5
3.1
13.5
17.5
93.6
1.8
2.8
14.3
18.2
113.4
2.2
2.7
13.1
17.2
114.0
2.2
3.0
15.6
20.8
161.9
1.2
3.7
14.4
19.2
110.1
1.5
3.7
15.0
20.1
129.2
1.5
3.8
15.5
20.7
130.2
2.0
3.6
19.3
24.9
190.6
3.5
6.8
24.0
33.6
287.0
5.1
8.5
29.7
41.6
346.9
7.3
10.6
43.9
59.0
411.5
7.7
11.5
56.5
73.7
483.0
6.0
14.6
64.2
84.9
560.0
6.8
17.4
79.5
103.7
648.3
14.7
58.0
20.8
(0.4)
93.2
15.2
61.2
19.6
96.0
12.6
52.8
18.7
84.1
14.4
69.6
20.0
(0.8)
103.2
16.2
68.7
24.4
(0.8)
108.1
16.6
71.5
23.0
111.0
19.9
69.4
22.1
111.4
19.2
80.8
21.9
121.9
19.4
77.5
25.2
122.1
20.2
81.4
24.6
126.2
20.1
79.5
23.8
123.5
21.5
94.8
23.7
140.1
24.2
172.8
60.2
257.1
37.9
201.0
74.0
(0.3)
312.6
57.0
241.6
79.1
(1.1)
376.5
71.9
290.3
91.4
(0.8)
452.4
81.2
333.3
97.4
511.8
93.2
382.4
101.5
577.1
(10.4)
(8.7)
(1.9)
1.1
6.0
9.0
41.3
44.3
(14.5)
(14.5)
2.4
2.4
2.6
3.7
40.0
41.7
(12.1)
(9.1)
3.0
8.3
6.8
15.0
50.5
61.9
29.9
32.8
34.3
39.5
35.0
45.7
30.6
33.4
48.2
76.0
71.2
95.2
0.0
(1.3)
0.0
(0.2)
0.0
0.8
0.1
(0.8)
0.0
(0.4)
0.0
0.1
0.0
(1.7)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
0.26
3.81
0.3
(0.8)
0.2
(1.5)
0.1
(2.7)
(3.0)
(3.0)
(11.7)
(3.5)
30%
(8.2)
($0.09)
(2.1)
(0.6)
30%
(1.5)
($0.02)
6.8
2.1
30%
4.8
$0.05
40.7
12.2
30%
28.5
$0.31
(14.8)
(4.4)
30%
(10.4)
($0.12)
2.6
0.8
30%
1.8
$0.02
0.9
0.3
30%
0.7
$0.01
39.3
11.8
30%
27.5
$0.30
(12.8)
(3.8)
30%
(9.0)
($0.10)
2.3
0.7
30%
1.6
$0.02
6.0
1.8
30%
4.2
$0.05
49.8
14.9
30%
34.9
$0.37
33.9
10.9
32%
23.1
$0.27
33.7
10.8
32%
22.9
$0.26
33.7
10.1
30%
23.6
$0.26
28.0
8.4
30%
19.6
$0.22
45.2
13.6
30%
31.7
$0.34
68.2
20.5
30%
47.7
$0.51
8.6
0.8
0.8
7.8
0.8
0.1
8.7
0.7
0.2
9.7
0.7
0.8
10.2
0.7
0.8
10.7
0.7
0.8
11.3
0.7
0.8
11.8
0.7
0.8
12.4
0.7
0.8
10.2
-
19.3
0.3
28.9
2.5
1.4
36.5
3.0
2.2
46.2
2.8
3.4
56.2
2.8
3.4
(10.9)
(13.7)
23.0
-168%
(36.7)
($0.41)
(4.2)
(7.2)
(2.2)
30%
(5.0)
($0.05)
8.8
5.8
1.7
30%
4.1
$0.04
6.0
0.4
0.2
6.6
0.6
0.3
3/14
3/15E
60.5
38.4
9.1
108.0
Pre-tax income
Provision for income tax
Tax rate
Net income (Loss)
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS
12/13
12/14E
52.7
35.7
8.2
96.5
9/13
FY14E
6/14
9/14
Licenses
Maintenance
Professional Services
Total revenues
Operating income
EBITDA
3/13
7.8
0.8
0.4
12/15E
FY11
FY12
FY13
(16.8)
(18.2)
(5.0)
27%
(13.2)
($0.15)
(9.1)
(9.6)
(1.5)
16%
(8.0)
($0.09)
(3.4)
(3.3)
(6.3)
190%
3.0
$0.03
32.7
32.0
23.7
74%
8.3
$0.09
(23.5)
(23.8)
2.1
-9%
(25.9)
($0.29)
(7.0)
(7.0)
3.2
-46%
(10.2)
($0.11)
(8.6)
(10.3)
4.0
-39%
(14.4)
($0.16)
28.2
27.5
13.7
50%
13.7
$0.15
(24.3)
(25.1)
(7.5)
30%
(17.6)
($0.19)
(9.8)
(10.5)
(3.2)
30%
(7.4)
($0.08)
(6.6)
(7.4)
(2.2)
30%
(5.2)
($0.06)
36.6
35.8
10.7
30%
25.1
$0.27
19.7
18.9
9.3
49%
9.5
$0.11
14.6
11.7
7.9
67%
3.8
$0.04
86.5
86.5
87.3
87.3
88.2
90.3
90.4
90.4
89.2
89.2
89.8
90.9
90.1
90.1
91.5
91.5
92.0
92.0
92.4
92.4
92.9
92.9
93.3
93.3
84.0
85.3
86.6
87.3
88.1
88.6
90.1
90.4
92.6
92.6
94.4
94.4
96.9%
92.0%
-20.3%
85.8%
-10.8%
-9.0%
-8.5%
97.5%
93.4%
-15.8%
87.1%
-1.8%
1.0%
-1.4%
97.3%
94.0%
-24.1%
86.5%
5.7%
8.6%
4.6%
97.4%
94.1%
3.7%
89.3%
25.5%
27.4%
17.6%
97.2%
93.3%
-18.4%
84.3%
-13.0%
-13.0%
-9.3%
97.3%
94.6%
-3.4%
86.2%
1.8%
1.8%
1.4%
96.8%
94.7%
-8.8%
86.9%
2.0%
2.9%
0.5%
98.0%
94.5%
4.0%
88.6%
21.9%
22.8%
15.0%
98.0%
93.5%
2.0%
85.2%
-9.3%
-7.0%
-6.9%
98.0%
94.0%
5.0%
86.5%
2.0%
5.5%
1.1%
98.0%
94.0%
0.0%
86.3%
4.5%
9.9%
2.8%
98.5%
94.5%
4.0%
88.5%
23.5%
28.7%
16.2%
98.3%
92.4%
11.3%
89.5%
9.3%
10.2%
7.2%
97.9%
92.9%
-1.1%
89.3%
8.8%
10.2%
5.9%
97.3%
93.4%
-12.2%
87.5%
7.4%
9.7%
5.0%
97.4%
94.3%
-5.6%
86.8%
5.5%
6.0%
3.5%
98.2%
94.0%
2.9%
86.8%
7.5%
11.8%
4.9%
98.2%
94.0%
2.9%
86.2%
9.5%
12.7%
6.3%
15.3%
60.1%
21.6%
96.6%
14.1%
56.6%
18.2%
88.9%
12.1%
50.7%
18.0%
80.8%
8.9%
43.0%
12.4%
63.8%
14.6%
61.8%
22.0%
97.3%
12.6%
54.3%
17.5%
84.4%
15.2%
52.8%
16.9%
84.9%
10.5%
44.2%
12.0%
66.7%
15.0%
60.0%
19.5%
94.5%
13.5%
54.5%
16.5%
84.5%
13.3%
52.7%
15.8%
81.8%
10.0%
44.0%
11.0%
65.0%
7.5%
53.9%
18.8%
80.2%
9.8%
51.7%
19.1%
80.5%
12.1%
51.4%
16.8%
80.0%
12.9%
52.1%
16.4%
81.3%
12.6%
51.7%
15.1%
79.4%
12.4%
50.8%
13.5%
76.7%
13.7%
20.9%
35.1%
34.5%
27.9%
26.3%
22.0%
25.9%
53.5%
49.8%
103.2% 102.5%
23.4%
26.4%
5.8%
5.9%
26.1%
29.0%
-177.5% -192.5%
-215.4% -186.1%
-208.5% -187.0%
11.7%
33.1%
32.5%
20.9%
44.1%
36.9%
17.8%
0.7%
15.8%
59.5%
172.4%
165.8%
10.3%
30.9%
42.9%
17.7%
26.6%
3.4%
14.7%
15.7%
12.6%
28.3%
29.3%
26.1%
2.3%
28.4%
39.2%
15.1%
27.2%
10.1%
18.3%
17.2%
16.0%
-39.0%
-27.0%
-23.2%
10.6%
32.5%
51.7%
21.9%
30.7%
8.7%
16.9%
17.2%
15.6%
226.1%
222.3%
217.4%
23.8%
27.1%
35.7%
26.1%
23.0%
57.8%
31.3%
18.4%
32.4%
-55.8%
-86.3%
-86.3%
9.0%
18.3%
25.3%
12.9%
20.5%
33.1%
16.0%
9.7%
18.1%
-3.2%
-3.4%
-4.5%
8.0%
23.0%
28.6%
16.3%
9.7%
19.4%
12.9%
3.3%
13.0%
16.7%
13.4%
16.0%
8.5%
19.6%
14.7%
13.4%
10.8%
21.7%
13.8%
7.2%
13.6%
24.7%
-12.9%
-14.3%
8.0%
20.9%
28.6%
15.0%
20.1%
0.8%
14.7%
7.7%
10.8%
156.0%
540.1%
520.9%
16.0%
20.1%
23.8%
17.9%
19.3%
12.3%
17.4%
8.1%
14.9%
26.3%
26.8%
24.4%
40.8%
48.9%
26.2%
41.5%
40.8%
76.3%
39.9%
72.6%
49.4%
-2.4%
30.5%
29.8%
16.8%
35.2%
8.5%
21.2%
23.8%
57.0%
16.3%
23.1%
21.6%
14.8%
-0.7%
-3.0%
13.4%
33.2%
33.2%
21.1%
41.6%
50.3%
20.2%
6.9%
20.4%
2.0%
3.0%
-2.4%
11.1%
26.2%
36.7%
18.3%
25.0%
26.1%
20.1%
15.6%
20.2%
-12.5%
-17.0%
-15.5%
11.1%
20.8%
23.6%
15.8%
15.1%
12.9%
14.8%
6.5%
13.1%
57.8%
61.7%
57.8%
13.6%
18.8%
23.8%
16.6%
22.2%
14.8%
14.7%
4.2%
12.8%
47.5%
50.7%
47.8%
-43.7%
2.3%
-9.9%
-29.8%
0.6%
5.7%
-4.4%
20.5%
1.8%
-132.4%
-137.1%
-137.8%
-9.9%
6.0%
-2.2%
-3.6%
0.8%
-17.2%
-13.7%
-4.7%
-12.4%
411.7%
422.7%
411.8%
89.2% -47.7%
12.2%
0.3%
46.1% -12.3%
55.4% -31.3%
23.5%
1.0%
14.3%
12.6%
31.9%
-1.4%
7.0%
22.0%
22.7%
4.8%
591.9% -135.1%
493.5% -136.4%
492.8% -136.9%
24.2%
11.0%
21.1%
18.5%
3.9%
2.0%
4.1%
-5.8%
2.7%
116.7%
117.5%
117.2%
0.8%
66.6% -48.2%
1.7%
4.5%
4.3%
-12.6%
35.0% -10.0%
-0.3%
39.2% -29.3%
-5.1%
20.9%
-8.0%
20.2%
-3.7%
1.0%
-3.0%
16.5%
-4.0%
-3.7%
-0.9%
14.9%
0.3%
9.4%
0.2%
9.3% 1415.5% -130.2%
-63.8% 4083.0% -132.7%
-63.5% 4017.4% -132.5%
24.8%
7.9%
8.0%
15.5%
4.9%
4.0%
4.9%
-2.3%
3.3%
124.9%
117.6%
117.6%
0.3%
2.8%
-2.0%
1.1%
2.9%
-0.4%
-2.2%
-3.2%
-2.1%
124.4%
165.6%
164.4%
78.9%
3.8%
30.0%
42.8%
20.1%
7.3%
19.2%
-0.6%
13.4%
647.9%
728.8%
724.8%
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
operating income
pre-tax Income
provision for income tax
Tax rate
net income
diluted EPS
14.9%
7.6%
11.1%
11.9%
1.1%
3.4%
5.5%
-5.8%
3.0%
81.6%
81.8%
82.0%
3.4
0.9
10.9
1209%
(10.0)
($0.11)
Qlik Technologies | 28
3/13
FY13
6/13
9/13
12/13
3/14
FY14E
6/14
9/14
12/14E
3/15E
FY15E
6/15E
9/15E
FY11
FY12
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
130.4
64.9
20.1
215.5
204.4
89.1
27.1
320.6
238.7
120.5
29.4
388.5
270.8
160.6
39.1
470.5
300.7
202.6
53.5
556.8
334.1
244.7
66.1
644.9
379.4
290.8
81.9
752.0
48.3%
41.4%
10.3%
60.5%
30.1%
9.4%
63.8%
27.8%
8.4%
61.4%
31.0%
7.6%
57.6%
34.1%
8.3%
54.0%
36.4%
9.6%
51.8%
37.9%
10.3%
50.4%
38.7%
10.9%
8.5%
19.6%
14.7%
13.4%
8.0%
20.9%
28.6%
15.0%
16.0%
20.1%
23.8%
17.9%
40.8%
48.9%
26.2%
41.5%
16.8%
35.2%
8.5%
21.2%
13.4%
33.2%
33.2%
21.1%
11.1%
26.2%
36.7%
18.3%
11.1%
20.8%
23.6%
15.8%
13.6%
18.8%
23.8%
16.6%
9.9%
25.0%
30.6%
18.3%
10.5%
21.5%
16.7%
15.4%
8.9%
21.8%
29.5%
15.9%
16.0%
20.1%
23.8%
17.9%
36%
21%
41%
13%
26%
13%
32%
32%
21%
11%
26%
37%
19%
11%
22%
25%
17%
13%
19%
24%
16%
66.6%
4.5%
35.0%
39.2%
-48.2%
4.3%
-10.0%
-29.3%
24.8%
7.9%
8.0%
15.5%
0.3%
2.8%
-2.0%
1.1%
78.9%
3.8%
30.0%
42.8%
1.26
-1.8%
14.7%
1.26
-1.9%
18.3%
1.26
-2.0%
15.4%
1.26
-0.9%
15.9%
1.26
0.0%
17.9%
1.39
4.9%
36.6%
1.29
-7.7%
28.8%
1.33
3.3%
17.8%
1.34
0.6%
17.7%
52.3
63.2
15.9
105
188
27
135
217
37
175
249
47
35%
53%
11%
40%
48%
12%
33%
59%
9%
35%
56%
10%
37%
53%
10%
10%
17%
21%
23%
21%
20%
27%
21%
48%
48%
36%
59%
28%
15%
35%
29%
15%
27%
26%
9%
29%
12%
12%
29%
24%
16%
24%
27%
21%
50%
30%
21%
38%
30%
12%
34%
41%
59%
53%
47%
43%
57%
48%
52%
48%
52%
47%
53%
45%
55%
45%
55%
104
27
111
27
208
55
101
28
109
25
108
23
450
85
458
114
511
141
29,000
1,568
30,000
1,661
31,000
1,721
32,000
1,809
33,000
1,928
33,000
1,987
24,000
1,044
27,000
1,425
1,721
161.8
102.3
18.0
179.8
15%
79%
111.1
113.6
11.3
122.4
23%
-32%
320.6
229.7
67.1
387.7
388.5
291.8
18.8
407.4
5%
470.5
364.0
16.4
486.8
20%
644.9
519.5
24.9
669.9
18%
752.0
604.9
26.1
778.1
16%
Revenue
Licenses
Maintenance
Professional Services
Total Revenue
52.7
35.7
8.2
96.5
60.5
38.4
9.1
108.0
54.5
40.7
8.9
104.1
103.1
45.7
13.0
161.8
53.9
45.8
11.4
111.1
66.9
50.9
13.8
131.6
67.5
51.8
12.1
131.3
112.4
54.1
16.3
182.7
58.2
56.4
14.6
129.2
72.6
60.8
15.8
149.3
72.9
62.5
15.5
150.9
Revenue mix
Licenses
Maintenance
Professional Services
54.53%
37.0%
8.5%
56.0%
35.6%
8.4%
52.3%
39.1%
8.5%
63.7%
28.2%
8.0%
48.49%
41.3%
10.2%
50.9%
38.7%
10.5%
51.4%
39.4%
9.2%
61.5%
29.6%
8.9%
45.0%
43.6%
11.3%
48.7%
40.8%
10.6%
YoY Growth
Licenses
Maintenance
Professional Services
Total Revenue
13.7%
35.1%
27.9%
22.0%
20.9%
34.5%
26.3%
25.9%
11.7%
33.1%
32.5%
20.9%
10.3%
30.9%
42.9%
17.7%
2.3%
28.4%
39.2%
15.1%
10.6%
32.5%
51.7%
21.9%
23.8%
27.1%
35.7%
26.1%
9.0%
18.3%
25.3%
12.9%
8.0%
23.0%
28.6%
16.3%
14%
34%
28%
22%
20%
33%
26%
25%
12%
32%
31%
21%
10%
30%
41%
17%
1%
27%
37%
14%
9%
30%
48%
20%
25%
28%
35%
27%
10.8%
20.1%
27.1%
14.7%
Sequential Growth
Licenses
Maintenance
Professional Services
Total Revenue
-43.7%
2.3%
-9.9%
-29.8%
14.9%
7.6%
11.1%
11.9%
-9.9%
6.0%
-2.2%
-3.6%
89.2%
12.2%
46.1%
55.4%
-47.7%
0.3%
-12.3%
-31.3%
24.2%
11.0%
21.1%
18.5%
0.8%
1.7%
-12.6%
-0.3%
Currency Impact
$/ Euro, average over quarter
FX impact on total revenue, Y/Y Growth
Est. Total revenue growth, organic cc
1.32
0.2%
21.8%
1.31
0.4%
25.5%
1.33
1.7%
19.3%
1.36
1.2%
16.4%
1.37
0.9%
14.1%
1.37
1.3%
20.6%
1.31
-1.0%
27.1%
Revenues by Geography
Americas
Europe
Rest of World
33.4
53.7
9.5
37.9
58.0
12.2
41.3
52.1
10.7
62.0
85.7
14.4
36.9
62.8
11.5
46.6
70.4
14.6
35%
56%
10%
35%
54%
11%
40%
50%
10%
38%
53%
9%
33%
56%
10%
YoY Growth
Americas
Europe
Rest of World
29%
17%
32%
31%
19%
48%
35%
13%
13%
25%
13%
20%
29%
16%
37%
31%
17%
53%
36%
9%
23%
37%
63%
43%
57%
88
32
28,000
1,484
108.0
88.2
(1.1)
106.9
31%
7%
104.1
84.3
(3.9)
100.2
18%
-6%
131.6
113.1
(0.5)
131.2
23%
7%
131.3
96.9
(16.3)
115.0
15%
-12%
182.7
115.1
18.3
201.0
12%
75%
129.2
131.8
16.7
145.9
19%
-27%
149.3
128.4
(3.4)
145.9
11%
0%
150.9
119.2
(9.2)
141.8
23%
-3%
12/15E
215.5
140.1
20.8
236.3
18%
67%
FY13
556.8
438.7
12.8
569.6
17%
Qlik Technologies | 29
FY10
12/10
FY11
12/11
FY12
12/12
214.8
101.4
16.1
1.0
11.5
344.9
3/13
FY13
6/13
FY14E
6/14
9/13
12/13
3/14
223.5
94.3
12.0
0.8
19.2
349.8
235.2
89.3
14.4
0.2
31.9
370.9
227.7
162.0
16.3
1.9
407.9
253.3
123.9
19.1
1.9
0.6
398.8
255.0
126.1
15.4
1.9
398.4
12/14E
3/15E
FY15E
6/15E
9/15E
242.0
129.1
13.5
1.9
386.4
264.4
152.2
18.3
1.9
436.8
278.7
141.6
22.0
1.9
444.2
301.4
129.2
16.4
1.9
448.9
9/14
12/15E
3/16E
FY16E
6/16E
9/16E
298.4
129.0
21.1
1.9
450.5
315.9
177.1
21.5
1.9
516.5
330.0
163.8
25.4
1.9
521.1
358.2
150.4
19.1
1.9
529.6
357.3
148.1
24.2
1.9
531.5
384.1
210.1
25.6
1.9
621.7
12/16E
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Accounts Receivables, net
Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets
Deferred Income Taxes
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
158.7
85.4
7.1
0.5
177.4
111.7
10.2
0.8
251.7
300.1
195.8
144.5
14.5
1.2
355.9
4.4
0.4
2.7
4.2
1.6
265.1
10.8
0.2
2.8
2.3
1.6
317.7
17.0
5.6
7.4
1.8
2.6
390.4
18.3
5.3
7.2
0.9
2.7
379.3
18.5
11.7
12.1
2.6
394.7
20.1
11.4
12.4
2.6
417.3
21.5
12.7
21.2
2.1
2.5
467.9
24.2
11.9
21.3
2.2
3.2
461.5
26.8
10.8
21.1
2.4
3.1
462.6
27.0
9.3
20.0
2.6
3.0
448.2
27.3
9.0
20.0
2.6
3.0
498.7
28.3
8.7
20.0
2.6
3.0
506.8
29.3
8.4
20.0
2.6
3.0
512.2
30.3
8.1
20.0
2.6
3.0
514.4
31.3
7.8
20.0
2.6
3.0
581.2
32.3
7.5
20.0
2.6
3.0
586.5
33.3
7.2
20.0
2.6
3.0
595.7
34.3
6.9
20.0
2.6
3.0
598.3
35.3
6.6
20.0
2.6
3.0
689.2
8.4
5.6
47.9
25.3
13.0
0.3
1.6
4.8
63.9
30.6
16.8
4.2
7.1
84.2
37.0
26.1
0.2
5.8
87.6
32.0
21.3
0.3
100.5
118.1
0.2
158.7
0.1
147.1
6.4
86.3
33.7
23.4
0.1
150.1
5.5
81.8
34.2
24.0
0.1
145.7
2.6
5.3
98.7
46.8
29.5
0.5
183.4
6.3
110.2
39.5
29.0
0.5
185.5
0.3
4.7
109.4
42.2
27.7
0.5
184.8
0.8
7.4
92.5
42.1
30.7
0.5
174.0
7.3
111.5
47.5
32.9
1.8
201.0
9.0
128.0
42.7
33.6
1.3
214.5
9.0
123.9
44.8
35.8
1.5
215.0
9.1
116.2
46.8
37.7
1.5
211.3
8.6
135.7
51.7
40.9
2.2
239.2
10.5
148.0
49.3
38.9
1.5
248.1
10.4
144.2
52.1
41.7
1.7
250.2
10.4
133.4
53.7
43.3
1.7
242.5
10.2
161.0
61.3
48.6
2.6
283.7
2.1
0.0
3.2
5.3
3.2
6.9
10.1
1.7
0.5
3.9
6.1
1.6
0.5
4.3
6.4
1.8
2.4
8.6
12.8
2.5
6.9
6.9
16.2
3.6
0.9
7.8
12.4
3.4
0.9
8.0
12.3
3.7
0.9
8.0
12.6
4.4
0.4
5.6
10.3
3.7
0.4
5.6
9.6
3.9
0.4
5.6
9.8
4.5
0.4
5.6
10.4
3.0
0.4
5.6
9.0
4.3
0.4
5.6
10.2
4.5
0.4
5.6
10.4
5.2
0.4
5.6
11.1
3.5
0.4
5.6
9.4
5.1
0.4
5.6
11.0
0.0
157.9
1.1
0.1
159.2
265.1
0.0
180.1
0.3
9.2
189.5
317.7
0.0
209.6
2.9
13.0
225.6
390.4
0.0
223.8
2.1
(0.2)
225.7
379.3
0.0
238.6
1.4
(8.2)
231.8
394.7
0.0
257.8
2.9
(5.2)
255.4
417.3
0.0
265.7
3.4
3.0
272.2
467.9
0.0
283.0
(22.8)
3.7
263.8
461.5
0.0
294.5
(33.0)
3.7
265.2
462.6
0.0
309.4
1.9
(47.4)
263.9
448.2
0.0
309.4
12.3
(33.7)
288.1
498.7
0.0
309.4
24.3
(51.2)
282.5
506.8
0.0
309.4
36.0
(58.6)
286.9
512.2
0.0
309.4
48.5
(63.8)
294.2
514.5
0.0
309.4
61.0
(38.7)
331.8
581.2
0.0
309.4
75.4
(56.9)
327.9
586.5
0.0
309.4
89.6
(64.7)
334.3
595.7
0.0
309.4
104.6
(67.7)
346.4
598.3
0.0
309.4
119.6
(34.6)
394.4
689.2
Current Liabilities
Line of Credit
Income Taxes Payable
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue, Current Portion
Accrued payroll and other related costs
Accrued expenses
Stock warrant liability
Deferred Income Taxes
Total Current Liabilities
Noncurrent Liabilities
Long Term Debt
Deferred Revenue, non current
Deferred Income Taxes
Other liabilities, non current
Stock Warrant Liability
Total Non Current Liabilities
Convertible preferred stock
Common Stock, $.001 par value
Additional Paid in Capital
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)
Retained Earnings/Accumulated Deficit
Total Shareholders Equity
Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity
Liquidity & Leverage
Current Ratio
Debt to Capital
Long Term Debt to Capital
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.0
0.0
2.3
0.0
0.0
2.3
0.0
0.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.00
0.00
2.2
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.00
0.00
2.2
0.00
0.00
2.2
0.00
0.00
2.1
0.00
0.00
2.1
0.00
0.00
2.1
0.00
0.00
2.2
0.00
0.00
2.1
0.00
0.00
2.1
0.00
0.00
2.2
0.00
0.00
2.2
0.00
0.00
94
6.4%
10.8%
10.8%
96
5.6%
9.8%
9.8%
96
-2.2%
-3.6%
-3.6%
80
-0.4%
-0.6%
-0.6%
78
1.1%
1.9%
1.9%
91
6.1%
10.5%
10.5%
102
-2.2%
-3.9%
-3.9%
87
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
90
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
76
5.5%
9.5%
9.5%
100
-1.8%
-3.2%
-3.2%
79
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
78
0.8%
1.4%
1.4%
75
6.0%
10.5%
10.5%
100
-1.4%
-2.4%
-2.4%
79
0.5%
0.9%
0.9%
78
1.4%
2.3%
2.3%
75
6.5%
11.3%
11.3%
$2.17
$0.05
$2.02
$0.18
$2.56
($0.01)
$2.22
$0.15
$2.61
$0.15
$2.48
($0.15)
$2.66
$0.09
$2.56
($0.09)
$2.83
($0.03)
$2.60
$0.03
$3.01
$0.03
$2.52
$0.09
$2.96
$0.18
$2.84
($0.29)
$2.92
($0.01)
$2.80
($0.11)
$2.93
($0.09)
$2.69
($0.16)
$3.15
$0.23
$2.89
$0.15
$3.07
$0.14
$3.03
($0.19)
$3.10
$0.23
$3.26
($0.08)
$3.17
($0.05)
$3.21
($0.06)
$3.56
$0.17
$3.39
$0.27
$3.50
$0.13
$3.52
($0.19)
$3.55
$0.28
$3.80
($0.08)
$3.66
($0.02)
$3.77
($0.03)
$4.15
$0.27
$4.04
$0.35
Qlik Technologies | 30
FY13
6/13
9/13
12/13
3/14
(13.2)
1.7
6.0
(4.2)
1.7
(8.0)
2.0
6.6
(2.3)
4.3
3.0
2.2
8.6
0.7
3.8
8.3
2.3
7.8
1.7
(9.3)
(25.9)
2.6
7.8
(3.4)
0.6
22.7
6.6
(17.6)
(5.7)
14.7
9.1
0.8
(2.8)
(2.8)
(4.4)
(1.8)
(6.1)
4.0
4.2
0.2
0.2
8.4
3/13
(1.3)
FY14E
6/14
FY15E
6/15E
9/15E
9/14
12/14E
3/15E
12/15E
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
(10.2)
2.6
8.7
(0.7)
1.0
(14.4)
3.2
9.7
(1.0)
4.4
13.7
3.0
10.2
(1.0)
-
(17.6)
3.0
10.7
(1.0)
-
(7.4)
3.0
11.3
(1.0)
-
(5.2)
3.0
11.8
(1.0)
-
25.1
3.0
12.4
(1.0)
-
9.0
3.0
10.2
(2.4)
4.2
3.8
5.3
19.3
(4.8)
2.0
(10.0)
8.2
28.9
(4.0)
0.5
(36.7)
11.3
36.5
(6.2)
6.0
(5.0)
12.0
46.2
(4.1)
-
4.1
12.0
56.2
(4.1)
-
37.7
2.8
(8.1)
(2.2)
21.2
18.8
(9.6)
(20.0)
(7.3)
2.1
6.1
30.1
10.3
8.0
5.1
19.4
4.1
(6.2)
23.8
16.3
24.6
(1.0)
19.5
16.7
27.7
29.7
41.1
59.5
76.1
(2.6)
(2.6)
(9.0)
(2.5)
(11.5)
(3.4)
(3.4)
(4.5)
(4.5)
(3.4)
(3.4)
(3.4)
(3.4)
(4.0)
(4.0)
(4.0)
(4.0)
(4.0)
(4.0)
(4.0)
(4.0)
(7.8)
(7.8)
(10.3)
(21.1)
(13.4)
(9.6)
(23.0)
(14.6)
(14.6)
(16.0)
(16.0)
(16.0)
(16.0)
6.0
2.3
(0.4)
(0.2)
(0.2)
-
11.3
(0.7)
-
1.9
(1.7)
(1.2)
(1.2)
-
6.0
3.4
-
2.1
0.7
-
4.2
1.0
(2.0)
(2.0)
-
1.0
1.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
9.5
2.4
0.4
(0.2)
-
5.5
4.8
(0.6)
(0.4)
(0.2)
-
23.1
4.0
(1.5)
(0.0)
(1.5)
-
13.3
6.2
(2.0)
(2.0)
-
4.0
4.1
-
4.0
4.1
-
7.8
.
(2.1)
10.6
(1.0)
9.4
2.9
3.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
11.9
9.7
25.7
17.5
8.1
8.1
(0.8)
2.9
(0.1)
0.2
19.0
195.8
214.8
8.7
214.8
223.5
11.6
223.5
235.2
(7.5)
235.2
227.7
25.6
227.7
253.3
1.8
253.3
255.0
(13.1)
255.0
242.0
(6.8)
22.4
242.0
264.4
14.3
264.4
278.7
22.7
278.7
301.4
(3.0)
301.4
298.4
17.5
298.4
315.9
18.5
158.7
177.4
(2.3)
18.4
177.4
195.8
2.1
31.9
195.8
227.7
36.7
227.7
264.4
51.5
264.4
315.9
68.2
315.9
384.1
12.8
$0.15
214.7
$2.48
7.5
$0.09
223.5
$2.56
(2.5)
($0.03)
235.2
$2.60
3.1
$0.03
227.7
$2.52
16.2
$0.18
253.3
$2.84
(0.5)
($0.01)
255.0
$2.80
(8.3)
($0.09)
242.0
$2.69
21.0
$0.23
264.4
$2.89
12.8
$0.14
278.7
$3.03
21.2
$0.23
301.4
$3.26
(4.4)
($0.05)
298.4
$3.21
16.0
$0.17
315.9
$3.39
6.2
$0.07
177.1
$2.02
17.7
$0.20
195.8
$2.22
21.0
$0.24
227.7
$2.52
28.3
$0.31
264.4
$2.89
45.6
$0.49
315.9
$3.39
62.2
$0.66
384.1
$4.04
Qlik Technologies | 31
(0.6)
(7.3)
$37
$30.78
19%
EV/Revenue Method
Forward EV/ revenue
CY15 revenue per share
CY14 EV per share
Cash less net debt per share, 12 months forward
12-month target price
5
$6.96
$34.81
$3.21
$38
DCF
Beta
Risk Free Rate (10-Yr T Bond)
Risk Premium
WACC (assumes no LTD)
NPV of FCF
EV/FCF - terminal value multiple
Terminal value
NPV of terminal value
Cash less net debt per share, 12 months forward
12-month target price
1.7
2.60%
6.00%
12.7%
$6.27
30
$80.86
$26.01
$3.21
$35
DCF Assumptions
Revenue
Operating income
EBITDA
Net income
FCF
CY09
157.4
14.6
15.8
7.3
14.2
CY10
226.5
30.6
32.3
17.7
27.2
CY11
320.6
29.9
32.8
23.1
6.2
CY12
388.5
34.3
39.5
22.9
17.7
CY13
470.5
35.0
45.7
23.6
21.0
CY14E
556.8
30.6
33.4
19.6
28.3
CY15E
644.9
48.2
76.0
31.7
45.6
CY16E
752.0
71.2
95.2
47.7
62.2
CY17E
894.9
62.6
80.5
40.3
71.6
CY18E
1,073.9
85.9
107.4
59.1
96.7
CY19E
1,288.7
103.1
128.9
70.9
116.0
CY20E
1,533.5
138.0
168.7
99.7
153.4
CY21E
1,794.2
161.5
197.4
116.6
179.4
CY22E
2,063.4
206.3
247.6
154.8
227.0
CY23E
2,352.2
235.2
282.3
176.4
258.7
CY24E
2,658.0
265.8
319.0
199.4
292.4
Margins (%)
Operating margin
EBITDA margin
Net margin
FCF margin
9%
10%
5%
9%
14%
14%
8%
12%
9%
10%
7%
2%
9%
10%
6%
5%
7%
10%
5%
4%
5%
6%
4%
5%
7%
12%
5%
7%
9%
13%
6%
8%
7%
9%
5%
8%
8%
10%
6%
9%
8%
10%
6%
9%
9%
11%
7%
10%
9%
11%
7%
10%
10%
12%
8%
11%
10%
12%
8%
11%
10%
12%
8%
11%
44%
109%
105%
143%
91%
42%
-2%
2%
30%
-77%
21%
15%
20%
-1%
188%
21%
2%
16%
3%
18%
18%
-13%
-27%
-17%
35%
16%
58%
128%
62%
61%
17%
48%
25%
51%
37%
19%
-12%
-15%
-16%
15%
20%
37%
33%
47%
35%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
19%
34%
31%
41%
32%
17%
17%
17%
17%
17%
15%
28%
25%
33%
27%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
158.7
84.8
10.1%
177.1
85.3
0.5%
195.8
87.3
2.3%
227.7
88.6
1.6%
264.4
90.4
2.0%
315.9
92.6
2.4%
384.1
94.4
1.9%
455.7
96.1
1.8%
552.4
97.8
1.8%
668.4
99.5
1.8%
821.7
101.2
1.8%
1,001.2
103.0
1.8%
1,228.1
104.8
1.8%
1,486.9
106.6
1.8%
1,779.3
108.5
1.8%
77.0
Qlik Technologies | 32
Analyst Biography
Steve joined Wedbush in May 2012 to cover enterprise software. Previously, he led the software coverage at Longbow Research and
KeyBanc Capital Markets, as well as working on the Jefferies software team. Steve has worked in sell-side research since 2004,
following ten years in the software and internet sectors and seven years in strategy consulting. Previously, he has worked at Oracle,
Viant, Strategic Decisions Group, and IBM. Steve holds a B.S. with distinction in mathematical sciences and a M.S. in engineeringeconomic systems from Stanford University, and a MBA from the Harvard Business School.
TICKER
AMZN
GOOGL
ORCL
CRM
SPLK
DATA
RATING
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
PRICE
$312.50
$536.11
$41.87
$56.14
$62.61
$82.20
PRICE
TARGET
$330
$530
$38
$61
$78
$98
Analyst Certification
I, Steve Koenig, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal opinion and that I have not and will not, directly or
indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with my specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
Disclosure information regarding historical ratings and price targets is available at http://www.wedbush.com/ResearchDisclosure/DisclosureQ314.pdf
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The analysts responsible for preparing research reports do not receive compensation based on specific investment banking activity. The
analysts receive compensation that is based upon various factors including WS total revenues, a portion of which are generated by WS
investment banking activities.
Wedbush Equity Research Disclosures as of December 10, 2014
Company
Disclosure
Qlik Technologies
Amazon.com
Google
Oracle
Salesforce.com
Splunk Inc.
Tableau Software
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Qlik Technologies | 33
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
WS has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months.
WS provided investment banking services within the last 12 months.
WS is acting as financial advisor.
WS expects to receive compensation for investment banking services within the next 3 months.
WS provided non-investment banking securities-related services within the past 12 months.
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The research analyst, a member of the research analysts household, any associate of the research analyst, or any individual
directly involved in the preparation of this report has a long position in the common stocks.
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Qlik Technologies | 34
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