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Abstract
A peripheral waterflood is planned in the Minagish Oolite
Reservoir, Burgan Field. This is a large carbonate reservoir
which has been under limited primary production since 1965.
There is considerable uncertainty in the waterflood oil forecast
because of the minimal amount of data with which to
characterize the reservoir.
This study identifies key
subsurface uncertainties impacting waterflood performance
and quantifies uncertainty with P10/P50/P90 oil forecasts.
Experimental design (ED) techniques were used to
establish the minimum number of reservoir simulation runs
needed to quantify uncertainty. Both traditional and ED
techniques were used to preserve history matches for all
simulations.
Analysis of variance and multiple linear
regressions were used to identify the most significant
uncertainties and to create a proxy for the simulator. The
proxy was used in Monte Carlo simulation to develop
P10/P50/P90 oil forecasts.
Uncertainty analyses have not often been conducted on
producing reservoirs.
In this report a new technique
combining ED with history matching has been successfully
demonstrated.
The technique can be applied to other
producing reservoirs. Despite the need to restrict simulator
inputs for history matching, it was shown that considerable
uncertainty exists in the waterflood oil forecast. The results
are valuable for: a) identifying actions to reduce uncertainty
and b) input to additional development evaluations.
Introduction
Quantification of uncertainty in reservoir development
projects has been a steadily growing industry-wide practice
since the early 1990s. By quantifying uncertainty in the early
phases of a project, it becomes possible to clearly assess risk
and plan for a range of possible project outcomes. Together,
these two abilities should yield better business decisions and
higher project values.
Background
The Minagish Oolite Reservoir, Burgan Field, Kuwait has
been on primary production since 1965. Cumulative oil
production is 8% OOIP and water production has been
minimal. Reservoir pressure has been slowly declining and is
now approaching the bubble point. The next planned stage of
development is waterflooding. Excellent response to water
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SPE 91820
Low
Middle
High
Top Structure
Depth
No change
60 ft. higher on
flanks
Mean Porosity
x 0.87
x 1.0
x 1.13
Mean Horizontal
Permeability
x 0.34
x 1.0
x 1.66
OOWC
6 ft. deeper
6 ft. shallower
Mean Irreducible
Water Saturation
x 0.38
x 1.0
x 1.62
4 High Perm
Zones
6 High Perm
Zones
11 Low Perm
Zones
x 0.333
x 1.0
Geologic Contrast
Vertical
Permeability
Sealing Faults
0 ft.
34 ft.
108 ft.
Rock
Compressibility
5 x 10
-6
1/psi
Pb = 2571 psia
Uncertainty Factors
At the onset of the study we identified all major subsurface
uncertainties which are labeled factors and listed in Table 1.
The list was developed from: experience gained during
simulation model building and history matching, analogy with
-6
8 x 10
1/psi
Bob = 1.362
rb/STB
Rsb = 724
SCF/STB
Bob = 1.412
rb/STB
Rsb = 766
SCF/STB
Viscosity = 1.31 cp
Viscosity = 1.12 cp
Viscosity = 0.93 cp
Sorw = 0.2
Sorw = 0.28
Sorw = 0.36
krw@sorw = 0.2
krw@sorw = 0.4
krw@sorw = 0.6
Water Relative
Permeability
1/psi
Pb = 2794 psia
-6
6.5 x 10
Pb = 2683 psia
Oil Properties
x 2.0
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SPE 91820
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SPE 91820
2. Experimental Design
Both approaches rely on simulation results to identify
factors that have the largest impact on the history match.
Once these factors were identified, their range was modified to
achieve better history matches for the next set of simulations.
The traditional approach was used initially because it was
fast. Partial history matches (15 out of 38 years) without
forecasts were run in 2 hours. In hindsight, we could have
used ED with the same partial history matches to obtain
similar results (described later). From the traditional approach
a tornado chart was used to identify the factors listed in Table
2 that caused the greatest mismatches. Fortunately only water
cut match was problematic; all simulations produced
reasonable pressure matches. Adjusted factor values, which
were carried forward to the first ED set of simulations, are
listed in Table 2.
Table 2. Pre-ED History Match Adjustments
Factor
Low
High
Mean Horizontal
Permeability
x 0.67
Geologic Contrast
4 Low Perm Zones
20 ft.
54 ft.
Oil Properties
Viscosity = 1.215 cp
Water Relative
Permeability
Sorw = 0.32
krw@sorw = 0.5
X Field Data
Pressure (psia)
3100
2900
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1975
1985
1995
2005
SPE 91820
50
Water Cut (%)
X Field Data
40
30
Center Point Run
20
10
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
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SPE 91820
Low
Middle
High
Top Structure
Depth
60 ft. lower on
flanks
as is
60 ft. higher on
flanks
Mean Porosity
x 0.94
x 1.0
x 1.13
Mean Horizontal
Permeability
x 0.8
x 1.0
x 1.66
OOWC
6 ft. deeper
3 ft. shallower
Mean Irreducible
Water Saturation
x 0.382
x 1.0
x 1.618
Vertical
Permeability
x 0.333
x 1.0
x 1.4
20 ft.
34 ft.
54 ft.
Rock
Compressibility
5 x 10-6 1/psi
Pb = 2571 psia
Pb = 2683 psia
Pb = 2794 psia
Bob = 1.312
rb/STB
Rsb = 683
SCF/STB
Bob = 1.362
rb/STB
Rsb = 724
SCF/STB
Oil Viscosity = 1.12
cp
Bob = 1.412
rb/STB
Rsb = 766
SCF/STB
Oil Viscosity =
0.93 cp
Oil Properties
Viscosity = 1.22 cp
Water Relative
Permeability
Sorw = 0.2
Sorw = 0.25
Sorw = 0.3
krw@sorw = 0.2
krw@sorw = 0.3
krw@sorw = 0.4
50
40
X Field Data
30
20
10
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
Cumulative Oil
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
tarzone
relperm
porosity
hperm
swirr
vperm
oowc
11
11
oilprop
comp
11
11
11
top
10
11
10
10
curvature
10
10
10
10
11
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SPE 91820
Residual (%)
3
1
-1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
P10
P50
P90
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Fig. 11 Cumulative Oil Uncertainty
MCS was conducted with 25,000 trials and the results are
shown in Fig. 11 & 12. In Fig. 11 cumulative oil production is
shown as three curves depicting 90%, 50% and 10%
probabilities (equal to or less than). Values were calculated
every 5 years, with graphical interpolation in between. In
comparison to Fig. 8, it is seen that the P90 and P10 curves
fall within the range of results obtained from the ED
simulations. This result is expected, as ED simulations
contain only low and high values and should include more
extreme outcomes.
The cumulative probability for recovery factor at year
2040 is shown in Fig. 12. 90% and 10% (equal to or less
than) recovery factors are 30.3 and 37.4 % respectively.
Cumulative Probability
(%)
-5
Cumulative Oil
-3
100
75
50
25
0
25
30
35
40
45
Conclusions
A valid oil production uncertainty assessment has been
obtained for a potential waterflood in the Minagish Oolite
Reservoir. Validity was established by history matching and
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SPE 91820
10. Al-Ajmi, et.al.: The Minagish Field Tar Mat, Kuwait: Its
Formation, Distribution and Impact on Water Flood, GeoArabia,
Vol. 6, No. 1, 2001, pp. 7-24.
11. Murtha, J.A.: Monte Carlo Simulation: Its Status and Future, J.
Petroleum technology, April 1997, pp.361-373.
12. Murtha, J.A.: Incorporating Historical Data in Monte Carlo
Simulation, paper SPE 26245 presented at the 1993 SPE
Petroleum Computer Conference, New Orleans, Louisiana, July
11-14.
Acknowledgment
We are grateful to the management of the Kuwait Oil
Company and to the Energy Ministry of the State of Kuwait
for permission to publish this work. We thank Adwait
Chawathe of ChevronTexaco for his advice and
encouragement on ED.
References
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Wiley and Sons, New York City, 2001.
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