3.

DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY

Historical Demand
Since 2005, all requirements to meet electricity demands in Ad Duqm and its surrounding areas, and in
Musandam, have been within the jurisdiction of RAECO, the sole licensed electricity supplier responsible for
electricity generation, transmission and distribution in those areas. Considering the relatively small energy
requirements of these areas, they have been met most economically by utilizing diesel-fired generators locally,
located close to the areas of consumption.
Recently, RAECO successfully commissioned a 67 MW diesel-fuel fired power plant to meet the rapidly growing
demands of the Ad Duqm area. RAECO is also finalizing the expansion of Khasab Power Station to include an
additional 8 MW of diesel-fueled generators for Musandam.
Demand Projections

Ad Duqm
The development of the Industrial Economic Zone (IEZ) would see substantial economic growth in Ad-Duqm as
well as population growth over and above the average for the area. As a result, the demand for electricity in
Ad-Duqm is likely to grow significantly over the coming years. However, the pace of growth is highly uncertain
and depends on many factors related to global markets, investment levels, and government incentives.
Several entities have prepared development forecasts for Ad Duqm, with widely divergent results. For the
purposes of electricity demand projections, OPWP has relied on projections by RAECO, the Port of Duqm
Company (PDC), and the Ad Duqm Special Economic Zone Authority (SEZAD). As for the MIS and Salalah
System, OPWP presents the forecast in three scenarios, displayed in Figure 14 below.
Under the Expected Demand scenario, peak demand is expected to grow at an average of 39% per year, from
19 MW in 2013 to 195 MW in 2020. Energy demand is projected to increase at 47% per year from 61 GWh in
2013 to 908 GWh (0.9 TWh). The Expected Demand scenario is developed from a combination of sources, as
follows:

RAECO projections, considering the demands of the core infrastructure projects associated with the
Special Economic Zone and the general residential and commercial demand generated by population
growth and development in the area; and

A provision for major industrial projects, based on estimates provided by the PDC.

The Low Case, Expected Demand, and High Case scenarios are significantly different, primarily due to differing
assumptions about industrial development. In OPWPs experience, a high level of uncertainty exists with the
materialization of the industries against development plans, and as such, this uncertainty is reflected in the
three demand scenarios.

7-Year Statement (2014-2020)

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