6 DROUGHT

6.1 Introduction
Droughts perhaps even more than floods are a matter of definition. The term drought is much more
difficult to define than the other extreme event, flood. In one climate, several months without rain may
constitute a severe drought, in another it can be the norm as in winter seasons of the savannah lands. In
general sense, a drought may be defined as an abnormal moisture deficiency in relation to some need, like
the empty reservoir. Some texts regard drought as the period in which rainfall consistently falls short of
the climatically expected amount, such that the natural vegetation does not flourish and agricultural crops
fail. But in simple terms, drought is lack of water for some purpose.
The engineer relates drought to a set of variables which describe rainfall, runoff and water storage. The
economist relates drought to factors that affect human activities. The agricultural drought is related to
shallow or deep-rooted plants etc. This shows that it is not a question of only trying to draw a line in a
continuum of different degrees of water shortage, but also a wider basis of definitions, because droughts
tend to cover a larger area than floods and have a greater range of impacts.
Droughts are therefore defined differently for different situations. Drought may be in form of shortage of
rainfall, according to meteorologists, but hydrologists and agriculturalists are also concerned with net
water balance, botanists may be concerned with the quality and therefore the physiological value of the
water available. Hydrologists and water resources engineers are also more concerned with longer
histories of meteorological shortfalls than meteorologists are because they are dealing with the responses
of often complex catchment areas and reservoir systems to droughts.
6.2 Meteorological Drought
Perhaps this is the most common basis for definition of drought. This occurs when rainfall received is
below expected amount in a given period of time. It also refers to a period of no rain or with rainfall less
than some particular value, for example 1mm per month. In defining meteorological drought, it is
particularly important to take into account differences between climate.
Definitions of meteorological drought must be considered as region specific since the atmospheric
conditions that result in deficiencies of precipitation are highly variable from region to region. For
example, some definitions of meteorological drought identify periods of drought on the basis of the
number of days with precipitation less than some specific threshold.
Drought must be distinguished from the general aridity of a climate, which can be defined as a long-term
ratio between annual precipitation and evapo-transpiration.
In case of other regions with more than one rainy season, distinction should be made between seasonal
droughts and annual droughts since agricultural and hydrological systems are very sensitive to the
seasonal rainfall characteristics. Seasonal droughts occur when the rainfall received within a given season
is significantly below the seasonal expectation while annual droughts refer to annual water deficits.
6.3 Hydrological Drought
For hydrological drought, the actual flow in the river is of most concern. So, hydrological drought may be
defined as a period during which stream flows are inadequate to supply established uses under a given
water-management system. Engineers concerned with maintaining water supply or with the dilution of
waste effluents must consider the length of the period of low flows as well as the extremity of flows
1

below a certain level. Flows may be low because of lack of precipitation in the preceeding wet period(s)
or winter(s) as well as low rainfall during the current summer or dry period. Hence a hydrological
drought may be defined as that period when flow in the river is below the minimum required for
sustaining demand downstream.
The frequency and severity of hydrological drought is often defined on a watershed or river basin scale.
Although all droughts originate with a deficiency of precipitation, hydrologists are more concerned with
how this deficiency plays out through the hydrologic system. Hydrological droughts are usually out of
phase with or lag the occurrence of meteorological and agricultural droughts. It takes longer for the
precipitation deficiencies to show up in components of the hydrological system such as soil moisture,
stream flow, and ground water and reservoir levels. As a result, impacts are out of phase with those in
other economic sectors because different water use sectors depend on these sources for their water supply.
For example, a precipitation deficiency may result in a rapid depletion of soil moisture that is almost
immediately discernible to agriculturalists, but the impact of this deficiency on reservoir level may not
affect hydroelectric power production or recreational uses for many months. Also, water in hydrologic
storage systems (e.g., reservoirs, rivers) is often used for multiple and competing purposes (e.g., water
supply systems, flood control, irrigation, recreation, navigation, hydropower, wildlife habitat), further
complicating the sequence and quantification of impacts. Competition for water in these storage systems
escalates during drought and conflicts between water users can increase significantly.
6.4 Agricultural Drought
In simple terms, an agricultural drought may be that period when moisture in the soil is insufficient to
meet evapo-transpiration needs and also support plant growth or crop production. Agricultural drought
links various characteristics of meteorological (or hydrological) drought to agricultural impacts, focusing
on precipitation shortages, differences between actual and potential evapo-transpiration, soil water
deficits, reduced ground water or reservoir levels, and so forth.
Plant water demand depends on the prevailing weather conditions, biological characteristics of the
specific plant, its stage of growth, and the physical and biological properties of the soil. A good definition
of agricultural drought should be able to account for the variable susceptibility of crops during different
stages of crop development, from emergence to maturity. Deficient topsoil moisture at planting may
hinder germination, leading to low plant populations per hectare and a reduction of final yield. However,
if topsoil moisture is sufficient for early growth requirements, deficiencies in subsoil moisture at this early
stage may not affect final yield if subsoil moisture is replenished as the growing season progresses or if
rainfall meets plant water needs.
6.5 Other Forms Of Drought
a) Physiological Drought
This refers to the condition of plants that suffer from excess of saline water, often on poorly drained
irrigated land. In this case, the problem is lack of physiologically usable quality rather than quantity of
water.
b) Climatological and Atmospheric Drought
A climatological drought refers to long periods, such as sequences of years, with precipitation less than
some base value, for example, less than 25% of the mean annual precipitation. An atmospheric drought
refers to conditions of air temperature and humidity, etc.
c) Socio-economic Drought
2

Socio-economic definitions of drought associate the supply and demand of some economic good with
elements of meteorological, hydrological drought. It differs from the aforementioned types of drought
because its occurrence depends on the time and space processes of supply and demand to identify or
classify droughts. The supply of many economic goods, such as water, forage, food grains, fish, and
hydroelectric power, depends on weather. Because of the natural variability of climate, water supply is
ample in some years but unable to meet human and environmental needs in other years. Socio-economic
drought occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds supply as a result of weather related
shortfall in water supply. For example, in Uruguay in 1988-89, drought resulted in significantly reduced
hydroelectric power production because power plants were dependent on stream flow rather than storage
for power generation.
6.6 Drought Impacts
Drought produces a complex web of impacts that span many sectors of the economy and well beyond the
area experiencing physical drought. This complexity exists because water is integral to our ability to
produce goods and provide services. Impacts are commonly referred to as direct or indirect. Reduced
crop, rangeland, and forest productivity; increased fire hazard, reduced water levels, increased livestock
and wildlife motality rates and damage to wildlife and fish habitat are a few examples of direct impacts.
The consequences of these impacts illustrate indirect impacts. For example, a reduction in crop,
rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agrobusiness, increased
prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues because of reduced expenditures,
increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and business men, migration, and disaster relief
programs. Direct or primary impacts are usually biophysical. The impacts of drought can be categorized
as economic, environmental or social.

6.6.1 Economic Impacts

Many economic impacts occur in agriculture and related sectors, including forestry and fisheries, because
of the reliance of these sectors on surface and subsurface water supplies. In addition to obvious losses in
yields in both crop and livestock production, drought is associated with increases in insect infestations,
plant disease, and wind erosion. Droughts also bring increased problems with insects and diseases to
forests and reduce growth. The incidence of forest and range fires increases substantially during extended
droughts, which in turn places both human and wildlife populations at higher levels of risk. Income loss
is another indicator used in assessing the impacts of drought because so many sectors are affected.
Reduced income for farmers has a ripple effect.
Retailers and others who provide goods and services to farmers face reduced business. This leads to
unemployment, increased credit risk for financial institutions, capital shortfalls and loss of tax revenue for
local, state, and federal government. Less discretionary income affects the recreation and tourism
industries. Prices for food, energy, and other products increase as supplies are reduced. In some cases,
local shortages of certain goods result in the need to import these goods from outside the stricken region.
Reduced water supply impairs the navigability of rivers and results in increased transportation costs
because products must be transported by rail or truck. Hydropower production may also be curtailed
significantly.

6.6.2 Environmental Impacts

Environmental losses are the result of damages to plant and animal species, wildlife habitat, and air and
water quality; forest and range fires, degradation of landscape quality, loss of biodiversity and soil
erosion. Some of the effects are short-term and conditions quickly return to normal following the end of
3

the drought. Other environmental effects linger for some time or may even become permanent. Wildlife
habitat, for example, may be degraded through the loss of wetlands, lakes, and vegetation. However,
many species will eventually recover from this temporary aberration. The degradation of landscape
quality, including increased soil erosion, may lead to a more permanent loss of biological productivity of
the landscape.
Although environmental losses are difficult to quantify, growing public awareness and concern for
environmental quality has forced public officials to focus greater attention and resources on these effects.
In East Africa (Mubiru, 2006), the low levels of water in the Great Lakes Region, during the 2004-2006
were primarily caused by drought. This affected the output of hydropower plants like the Nalubaale and
Kiira dams at Jinja in Uganda, which are fed by Lake Victoria. The combined power output dropped from
270 MW to 120MW. It also affected the rivers that drain into Lake Victoria, like Nzoia in Kenya, Simiyu
in Tanzania and Kagera in Rwanda resulting in a decline in hydropower of about 30- 60%. The levels of
Lake Tanganyika dropped by more than a meter and this affected the Port of Bujumbura. Lake Nyasa was
also affected.
It can be noted that this drought period coincides with the low activity of the Wolf Gliessberg Cycles
(Yousef et al, 2000), which range from 80 120 years. This was based on available data for over 100
years. The low activity cycle lasts 12 years. The Wolf Gliessburg Cycles is seen in sunspot measured
amplitudes, as measured by the annual mean sunspot number. He also notes a very good correlation
between sunspot number and the outflows of Lake Victoria (0.86) and Lake Kyoga and forecasts
Equatorial droughts for the years 2009 +- 2-3 years, 2021+- 2-3, 2033+- 2-3 and perhaps 2044+- 2-3
years.

6.6.3 Social Impacts

Social impacts mainly involve public safety, health, conflicts between water users, reduced quality of life
and inequities in the distribution of impacts and disaster relief. Many of the impacts specified as
economic and environmental have social components as well.
Population out-migration is a significant problem in many countries, often stimulated by greater
availability of food and water elsewhere. Migration is usually to urban areas within the stressed area or to
regions outside the drought area; migration may even be to adjacent countries, creating refugee problems.
However when drought has abated, these persons seldom return home, depriving rural areas valuable
human resources necessary for economic development. For the urban area to which they have
immigrated, they place ever-increasing pressure on the social infrastructure, possibly leading to greater
poverty and social unrest.
It is important to mention that not all impacts of drought are negative. Some agricultural producers
outside the drought area or with surpluses benefit from higher prices, as do businesses that provide waterrelated services or alternatives to water-dependent services.
6.6.4 Sequences of Drought Impacts
The sequence of impacts associated with meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought further
emphasizes their differences. When drought begins, the agricultural sector is usually the first to be
4

affected because of its heavy dependence on stored soil water. Soil water can be rapidly depleted during
extended dry periods. If precipitation deficiencies continue, then people dependent on other sources of
water will begin to feel the effects of the shortage. Those who rely on surface water (i.e., reservoirs and
lakes) and subsurface water (i.e., ground water) for example, are usually the last to be affected. A shortterm drought that persists for 3 to 6 months may have little impact on these sectors, depending on the
characteristics of the hydrologic system and water use requirements.
When precipitation returns to normal and meteorological drought conditions have abated, the sequence is
repeated for the recovery of surface and subsurface water supplies. Soil water reserves are replenished
first, followed by stream flow, reservoirs and lakes, and ground water. Drought impacts may diminish
rapidly in the agricultural sector because of its reliance on soil water, but linger for months or even years
in other sectors dependent on stored surface or subsurface supplies. Ground water users, often the last to
be affected by drought during its onset, may be last to experience a return to normal water levels. The
length of the recovery period is a function of the intensity of the drought, its duration, and the quantity of
precipitation received as the episode terminates.
6.7 Causes of Droughts
6.7.1 Primary Causes
Droughts are primarily generated by aberration in climatic conditions. There is evidence that the climate
of Uganda is linked to the major global modes of variability including the El Nino Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) signals as well as signals in the Tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures
(SSTs).
Inter annual and Intra annual rainfall variability plays the greatest role in the existence of droughts yet this
variability is caused by the El Nino Southern Oscillation and Quasi Biennial Oscillation phenomena.
6.7.2 El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon
Every two to seven years off the western coast of South America, ocean currents/ winds shift, bringing
warm water westward, displacing the nutrient-rich cold water that normally wells up from deep in the
ocean. The invasion of warm water disrupts both the marine food chain and the economies of coastal
communities that are based on fishing and related industries.
Because the phenomenon peaks around the Christmas season, the fishermen who first observed it named
it El Nino (the Christ Child).
El Nino and La Nina are Spanish words that were coned to signify periods (of a year or occasionally
longer) when there is pronounced development of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the
Central and Eastern areas of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
When this period is significantly anomalously warm (positive SST anomalies) this period is referred to as
El Nino and when it is significantly cold (negative SST anomalies) it is referred La Nina period. El Nino
often begins early in the year and peaks between the following November and January.
The Southern Oscillation, a seesaw of atmospheric pressure between the Eastern equatorial Pacific and
lndo- Australian areas (Glantz et al., 1991), is closely linked with El Nino. During an El NinoSouthern
Oscillation (ENSO) event, the Southern Oscillation is reversed. Generally, when pressure is high over the
Pacific Ocean, it tends to be low in the Eastern Indian Ocean, and vice versa (Maunder, 1992). El Nino
and Southern Oscillation often occur together, but also happen separately.
5

ENSO occurrences are global climate events, that are linked to various climatic anomalies, even in ENSO
years,. In fact, statistical evidence shows that ENSO can account at most for about 50% of the inter
annual rainfall variance in Eastern and Southern Africa (OgaIlo, 1994), but many of the more extreme
anomalies, such as severe droughts, flooding, and hurricanes, have strong teleconnections to ENSO
events. Teleconnections are defined as atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions
(Glantz, 1994).
From his analysis (Kayondo, 2001) of 22 El Nino and 13 La Nina and 6 month SPI data, ENSO has been
found to exert an influence on the moisture regime of East Africa. The degree and temporal patterns vary
according to the drought zones he developed. North Eastern Tanzania has the strongest response to
ENSO. Furthermore, El Nino seems to exert a stronger influence on East Africa than La Nina.
During an ENSO event, drought can occur virtually anywhere in the world (Ropelewski, 1987) looked at
the link between ENSO events and regional precipitation patterns around the globe. Eastern and Southern
Africa showed a strong correlation between ENSO events and a lack of rainfall that brings on drought in
the Horn region and areas South of there. Variations in the SSTs modify the strength, orientation and
persistence of the Monsoon winds that are responsible for moisture transportation thus displacing the
rainfall patterns within the tropics bringing droughts and floods to vast areas.
In Uganda, El Nino is often equated to floods while La Nina is often equated to droughts. In the analysis
of the Net Basin Supply to Lake Victoria demonstrates that ENSO signals are clearly identifiable in the
October, November, December, January (ONDJ) wet season and to a lesser extent in the February,
March, April, May and June, July, August, September (JJAS) seasons. For Lake Victoria, a La Nina event
results in reduced precipitation in the ONDJ and slightly increased precipitation in JJAS season (Wardlaw
et al, 2007).
From his analysis (Camberlin, 1997) observes that there exits a close association between summer rainfall
variations in India and in the western parts of East Africa. An even closer relationship exists between the
latter and Bombay. This relationship has been virtually stable throughout the twentieth century. Although
there is also a statistical connection between East African Rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI), partial correlation coefficients show that the IndiaEast Africa teleconnection is to a large extent
independent of SOI. He suggests that monsoon activity over India is a major trigger for July- September
rainfall in the East African Highlands.
6.7.3 Global Warming and the Greenhouse Effect
In a greenhouse, solar radiation passes through a mostly transparent piece of glass or plastic and warms
the inside air, surface, and plants. As the temperature increases inside the greenhouse, the interior of the
greenhouse radiates energy back to the outside and eventually a balance is reached.
The earth and its atmosphere simulate these greenhouse conditions. Short-wave radiation from the sun
passes through the earths atmosphere. Some of this radiation is reflected back into space, some of it is
absorbed by the atmosphere, and some of it makes it to the earths surface, where it is either reflected or
absorbed. The earth, meanwhile, emits long-wave radiation toward space. Gases within the atmosphere
absorb some of this long-wave radiation and re-radiate it back to the surface. These gases are called
greenhouse gases and include carbondioxide (CO2), water vapour (H2O), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
(N2O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and ozone (O3). It is because of this greenhouse-like function of the
atmosphere called Global warming that the average global temperature of the earth is 15C (59F).
Increased concentration of these gases along with the depletion of the Ozone layer due to processes
(photosynthesis, decomposition) and human activities (pollution, industrialisation, nuclear tests) means
increased absorption and re-emission of the infrared radiation that keeps the earth surface warmer than it
should be leading to extensive evapotranspiration, a parameter that is very significant to the drought
phenomenon.
6

6.7.4 Other Phenomena

Other factors that may lead to the occurrence of droughts include:

The space-time characteristics of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which influences
the seasonal variability of rainfall.

The Congo air mass

The position and strength of Mascarene anticyclone over the Southern Indian Ocean, the St.
Helena High, the Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean and the Arabian High.

The three low activity 12 years of the Wolf-Gleissburg solar cycles are associated with droughts,
while the long range cycles (80-120 years) are associated with rising water levels.

6.7.5 Inadvertent Causes

It is increasingly important to associate role of humanity in altering the hydrological cycle with the
existence of droughts. Man has an indirect effect on the hydrological processes simply by altering the
vegetation. Vegetation plays a great role in the hydrological cycle as concerns interception,
evapotranspiration, rain formation, soil retention and filtration.
In Uganda today like many other developing countries, vast areas including forests, grasslands and
wetlands have been cleared for municipal reasons, industrialization, hunting, lumbering and agriculture.
The process is being accelerated by a phenomenal increase in population, industrialization and
agriculture.
Destruction of natural vegetation slows down the hydrological cycle by reducing evaporative losses. As
trees and shrubs have been replaced by grasslands and agricultural crops, the rate of interception and
evapotranspiration has been reduced. Potential evaporation is likely to have been reduced further by the
increase in surface albedo and the resultant reduction in the net radiation balances as woodlands are
cleared. If the clearance covers a broad enough area, then the lower evapotranspiration and net balances
might eventually reduce precipitation downward by reducing atmospheric moisture levels and convective
cloud formation.
More to the above, we know with certainty that the concentrations of carbondioxide (CO2), water vapor
(H2O), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere have
increased as a result of recent human activity including modernization and technology in form of heavy
industrialization leading to air pollution.
By 1896, a Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius was already calculating that the earths surface
temperature would increase by 5-6C (4142 8F) with a doubling or tripling of the atmospheric CO2
content. CFCs destroy stratospheric ozone. The resultant effect of increase in CO2 and depletion of the
stratospheric ozone is temperature increase, which is an important parameter in the drought phenomenon.
There is probably no simple explanation for the occurrence of droughts. In general, the factors that
combine to produce droughts are related to atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and to the influence of
continental areas. The atmospheric circulation may fail to follow their normal course, for example the
depression tracks are diverted or monsoons fail, or else it may result from cooler temperatures,
particularly sea surface temperature (SSTs) which generate less evaporation and less convection activity.
7

Drought in Sahel has been linked to lower SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, which may be due to the strength
of oceanic up-swelling, Sahel droughts are also linked with the Pacific El Nino Current and failure of the
ITCZ to penetrate as far North as normal so that the West Africa monsoon does not reach the Northern
Interior.
If for example, climatic conditions are such that the annual rainfall is derived from a few intense
rainstorms, the failure of such storms to occur over an extended period produces the drought. A temporal
decrease in the number of rainfalls may arise from variations in the pattern of atmospheric circulation.
Variation in the distribution of warm and cold water masses in the oceans can produce slower acting and
longer lasting atmospheric effects.
The occurrence of particularly cold or warm periods over continental areas may precede or produce
droughts over adjacent continental areas. Attempts at the explanation of droughts are based on the
physical relationships and interactions of the drought affecting factors, while the descriptions of drought
are based on statistical and analytical methods.
6.8 Analysis of Drought
Yevjevich (1991) divides the statistical techniques of drought analysis into four groups:
1) Empirical methods. These are based on the observed data from which deductions are made about the
nature of the variables. For example. Joseph (1970) fitted distributions to river flow data and found
that Gamma distribution gave the best fit.
2) Generation methods. Techniques, such as the Monte Carlo method and others are used to produce
long sequences of data with the same statistical properties (i.e. mean, variance, etc) as the observed
data.
3) Analytical models. These are based mainly on the theory of probability.
4) Analytical runs. The period when the flow is less than the base value Q0 are considered as a statistical
variate,

, and are associated with the duration of the drought (Fig. 6.1)

6.8.1 Drought in Terms of Streamflow

The severity of the drought is measured by the total deficit in the volume of water with respect to Q0
during the period

. The deficit in the volume of water is given by

Vt =

t1 +

(Q

Q)dt

(6.1)

t1

where Vt will have a certain probability distribution. To give a deficit duration curve, this analysis is
applied by engineers concerned with dilution of waste effluents who must consider length of period of
low flows as well as extremity of flows below a certain level. It is very useful because degree of treatment
is dependant on water available for dilution.
8

Q
p

QO

t1

t1 +

Fig 0.1 Definition Sketch for Application of Runs in Drought Analysis based on River Flow
The above method defines drought in terms of deviations from the river flows. The letter p represents the
time between two drought periods.
6.8.2 Drought Volumes Method
Deviations from average rainfall (e.g. monthly averages) can also be calculated and the total deficit in
terms of volume of water in mm calculated as
t +

Vo =

(M R )dt
t

(6.2)

Where Mt and Rt are the mean monthly rainfall and monthly rainfall respectively t and
which may be in months in Fig. 6.2.

are periods,

Rainfall

Mt
Rt

t
9

Fig 0.2 Application of Runs in Drought Analysis based on Monthly Rainfall

However, drought can also be defined in terms of effective precipitation and the mean monthly rainfall. In
this case drought volume will be defined by Equation 6.3.

V =

(E
t =1

M t )t

(6.3)

Where Et is the effective precipitation defined by

E t = ( Rt 1 M t 1 ) * Wt + Rt

(6.4)

Rt is the monthly rainfall, Mt the monthly mean rainfall and Wt the weighting factor which allows for
carry-over from one month to the next.

12 M

W t = 0 . 1 1 +
MAR

(6.5)

And MAR is the mean annual rainfall. D is the duration of drought.

Basing on the deviation of effective precipitation from the average rainfall, Herbst et al. (1966) defined
drought intensity of rainfall as:
D

Y =

[(E
t 1

) (MMD )t ]

(6.6)

(MMD )

t 1

Where (MMD) t is the monthly mean deficit (t = 1, 2, ,12) evaluated from the N years of record and is
given by

(MMD )t

t =1

(M t

R t )t
N

(6.7)

Where D and E t are defined as above.

The carry-over is zero for the first month. The sum (MMD) t gives the mean annual deficit MAD.
A severity of drought index is then given by YD.

i) Example 6.1
Table 6.6 shows the effective rainfall in Kasese for years 1964 1968 and the monthly mean rainfall over
50 years, Table 6.6 shows the mean monthly deficits over 50 years in last row.

10

Table 0.1 Monthly Effective Rainfall (mm) Et

Year
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
Mean
50Years

Jan
45.4
4.5
0.0
4.6
27.4
29.6

Feb
46.3
7.2
54.2
0.0
85.5
39.2

Mar
82.0
111.7
224.5
26.9
237.0
99.0

Apr
156.2
255.7
332.6
145.7
165.4
132.0

May
119.9
59.0
136.1
265.0
0.0
106.1

Jun
24.5
0.0
20.8
113.0
54.3
34.8

Jul
31.4
0.0
19.5
105.0
73.9
36.9

Aug
61.6
0.0
108.1
78.8
57.5
73.0

Sep
126.7
0.0
182.1
0.0
12.6
91.1

Oct
194.2
10.5
36.3
0.0
136.2
104.5

Nov
154.8
145.9
0.0
153.7
300.2
103.8

Dec
192.9
38.4
0.0
79.4
127.9
70.6

Effective rainfall was calculated using the equation;

Where Rt is the monthly rainfall, Mt the monthly mean rainfall and Wt the weighing factor which allows
for carry-over from one month to next month. The data above was used to study drought occurrences in
Kasese. Drought is said to occur if the difference between the effective rainfall and Mt mean monthly
rainfall is negative, indicating a deficit.
a) Using the information above, copy and complete Table 6.7 The Mean Monthly Deficits (MMD) are
also given. Note that the positive values (surplus) are set to zero since they are not required here.

Table 0.2 Monthly Rainfall Deficits (mm)

Year
Jan
Feb
Mar Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0.0
0.0
17.0
0.0
0.0
10.3
5.6
11.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
16.9
18.2
33.4
31.8
30.7
19.2
16.7
28.8
30.8
29.1
25.8
31.8
MMD
(50yrs)
(b) From the Table 6.8, March is a drought month as well as June, July, August etc. March is a drought
period of one month while June-August is a drought period of three months. The summation of rainfall
deficits across the drought period gives a drought volume V, the drought intensity Y and Severity index
given by the following formulae;
V =

(E t M
D

I =1

(i )

[(E
D

Y =

i =1

M ) (MMD
t

(MMD
d

i 1

)]
t

)
t

Severity index = YD
Where D is the drought period in months, (MMD)t is the monthly mean deficit (t = 1, 2,., 12) evaluated
from the N years of record and is given in the last row of the table in (a) above. The results should be
11

given as in Table 6.8 similar to the one below in which sample calculations of drought volume, drought
intensity and severity index have been made. Note that the expected total deficit is the sum of MMD
across the same drought period and a negative value of drought intensity is set to zero because it is of
little significance.
Table 0.3 Drought Calculations
Year(s)

Month(s)

1964
1964
1965

Mar
Jun-Aug
Jan-Feb

Drought
Drought
period
D volume V
Months
(mm)
1
17
3
23.7
2
57.1

Expected
total deficit
(MMD)t
33.4
64.7
35

Drought
intensity
Y
0.00
0.00
0.63

Drought
Severity
YD
0.00
0.00
1.26

Solution
a) Calculation of rainfall deficit;
Jan 1964
Mean rainfall Effective rainfall = 29.6-45.4
= -15.8mm
This value is a surplus and it should be set to zero.
Jan 1965,
Mean rainfall Effective rainfall = 29.6-4.5
= 25.1 mm
Table 0.4 Completed Monthly Rainfall Deficit (mm)
Year
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
MMD
b)

Jan
0.0
25.1
29.6
25.0
2.2
16.9

Feb
0.0
32.0
0.0
39.2
0.0
18.1

Mar
17.0
0.0
0.0
72.1
0.0
33.3

Apr
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
31.8

May
0.0
47.1
0.0
0.0
106.1
30.7

Jun
10.3
34.8
13.9
0.0
0.0
19.2

Jul
5.6
36.9
17.4
0.0
0.0
16.7

Aug
11.4
73.1
0.0
0.0
15.6
28.8

Sep
0.0
91.1
0.0
91.1
78.5
30.8

Oct
0.0
94.1
68.2
104.5
0.0
29.1

Nov
0.0
0.0
103.8
0.0
0.0
25.8

Dec
0.0
32.3
70.6
0.0
0.0
31.8

For Jan-Feb 1965 drought,

Drought period, D= 2 months

Drought volume = 25.1+32.0 = 57.1 mm
Expected total deficit = 16.9+18.1=35.0mm
Drought intensity = (Drought volume Expected total deficit) / Expected total deficit
= (57.1-35.0)/35.0
= 0.63
Since a negative intensity is of little significance, it should be set to zero.
Drought severity = Drought period x Drought intensity
= 2 x 0.63 = 1.26
12

Table 0.5 Completed Drought Calculations

Years

Month(s)

1964
1964
1965
1965
1965-1966
1966
1966-1967
1967
1968
1968

Mar
Jun-Aug
Jan-Feb
May-Oct
Dec-Jan
Jun-Jul
Oct-Mar
Sep-Oct
May
Aug-Sep

Drought
Drought
period D volume
Months
(mm)
1
17
3
23.7
2
57.1
6
377
2
61.9
2
31.3
6
379
2
195.6
1
106.1
2
94.1

Expected
V deficit
(MMD)t
33.4
64.7
35
155.3
48.7
35.9
155
59.9
30.7
59.5

Drought
intensity

Drought
severity

0.00
0.00
0.63
1.43
0.27
0.00
1.45
2.27
2.46
0.58

0.00
0.00
1.26
8.57
0.57
0.00
8.67
4.53
2.46
1.16

ii) Drought Frequency Relationships

There are two fundamental rudiments to the development of a reliable drought frequency relationship,
which are;

Availability of long-term quality precipitation record.

Assumption that the statistical properties of precipitation are stationary. This implies that the
statistics do not change over time, which occurs when land use changes in the area are not expected
to be reflected in the precipitation. If a substantial change in precipitation characteristics is expected,
then the drought frequency relationship built from historical records might not be valid.

After drought volumes are calculated using the procedures stated above,the drought volumes can be
subdivided into equal class intervals each with an increment Q mm. Starting with the first class interval
i=1 we count the number of drought volumes n1 in it. The relative frequency of occurrence for the first
class interval is f1 = n1/N where N is the total number of drought volumes in the record. This is repeated
for each class interval and a plot of i verses fi results in the frequency histogram for the series. The
variable drought volumes, V can be created with the same procedures as discussed under Section 4.2(ii)
Chapter 4-Statistical Methods.
A study (Rugumayo and Mwebaze, 2002) was carried out for two climatic zones in Uganda (M (Kasese)
and C(Mbarara)), with 35 and 37 years of data respectively using the drought volumes method. The
drought volumes were considered as a series of random variables and statistical distributions were tested
and fitted using the Kolmogorov Smirnov Test. In both cases it was observed that the log normal
distribution gave the best fit. Drought volumes were also used to calculate drought magnitudes, return
periods, intensities and severities. Curves for drought duration and drought volumes against return period
(both linear and logarithmic) were plotted and are useful methods of representing drought intensities. It
was noted that Kasese region experiences more drought than Mbarara region.
Fig 6.3 shows a drought duration frequency curve for a similar study in Masindi and Rakai. Fig 6.4 shows
a curve of drought volumes against return period and Fig 6.5 shows a plot of drought severity against
drought volumes for the same areas.
A method that uses statistical methods to relate historic groundwater levels and rainfall time series
provides a robust approach to predicting minimum groundwater levels and drought. In this case
13

groundwater droughts are defined in terms of the return period of a given groundwater level. A multiple
linear regression model (regression of monthly rainfall totals for a given period aginst values of minimum
annual groundwater levels for the same period) when used with synthetic rainfall data based on climatechange scenarios, enables changes in future annual groundwater levels to be modeled (Bloomfield et al,
2003).
iii) Drought Intensity and Severity Maps
The Drought Intensity map of Uganda (based on drought volumes) shown in Fig 6.6 shows higher intensities
in the climatic regions (cf Fig 5.6) of MW,CE, part of ME ( these constitute the relatively dry cattle
corridor, and traverses in a southwest- northeast direction across the country( NEMA, 2005)), the northern
part of L, parts of H, E and I, the northern part of G, which are also part of the cattle corridor . The Drought
Severity map of Uganda (based on drought volumes) in Fig 6.7 relates to the duration of the drought as well,
shows higher severities in regions MW, ME, CE and a portion of CW in the south west (as part of the cattle
corridor); regions B, D, E and a portion of F in the east, as well as the northern parts of H, G , I and J.
iv) Drought Prediction
With our present knowledge, we are unable to predict future hydrological events in an exact deterministic
manner. Hydrologists predict the occurrence of extreme events in a broad statistical sense. Based on
statistical analyses of the best possible, the longest historical precipitation record in the watershed, it is
possible to predict the drought rate of a specific volume associated with a given frequency. In other words
instead of predicting the time of occurrence of a drought of a certain magnitude, the hydrologist ascertains
how often a drought of such a magnitude occurs.

DURATION CURVE
1000

DROUGHT VOLUME(mm

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PERCENTAGE EXCEEDANCE
M ASINDI

RAKAI

Fig 0.3 Drought Duration Curves for Masindi and Rakai

14

DROUGHT VOLUME VS SEVERITY

DROUGHT VOLUMES VS RETURN PERIODS

18

10000

y = 199.21Ln(x) + 5.2083

100

y = 0.0195x - 0.7334

14

y = 239Ln(x) - 17.819

1000

SE V ER IT Y

DRO UG H T VO LUME(mm)

16
12
10
8

y = 0.0152x - 0.1273

6
4

10

2
0
0

1
1

10
100
RETURN PERIOD(years)
RAKAI

1000

200

400
600
800
DROUGHT VOLUME (mm)

RAKAI
Linear (MASINDI)

1000

MASINDI
Linear (RAKAI)

MASINDI

Fig 0.4 Drought Volumes against Return Period

Fig 0.5 Severity against Drought Volumes

6.8.3 Drought Severity

Drought severity is measured by use of an index. The index shows climatological characteristics of
precipitation as a water source for a station area. By using these indices, the onset and ending of a water
deficit period is categorized and how long this deficit has lasted is also found. Some of the indices used
by hydrologists in drought analysis include:

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), ( Mckee, 1993)

Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), ( Shafer and Dezman, 1982)

Bhalme-Mooley Drought Index, BMDI (Bhalme and Mooley, 1980)

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), (Palmer, 1965)

Deciles (Gibbs, 1965)

Crop Moisture Index (CMI), (Palmer, 1968)

The main input parameter for calculation of these indices is precipitation and others include;
evapotranspiration, temperature, soil moisture, and runoff. The time scale for the parameters is the month
and this has various problems associated with it (compared with daily scale) viz;

Most of these indices assess the deficiency of water from the climatological mean on some
predefined duration but leave out the concept of defining the period of water deficit.

Using monthly units is problematic because an affected drought region can return to normal
condition after a days rainfall thus justifying the use of daily values.

These indices do not effectively take into account the aggravating effects of runoff and
evapotranspiration that build up with time.

They have limited usefulness in monitoring ongoing drought because they are based on monthly
time step. Furthermore, most of them fail to differentiate the effects of drought on surface and subsurface water supplies.
15

Fig 0.6 A Drought intensity map for Uganda

16

Fig 0.7 A Drought Severity map for Uganda

17

6.8.4 The Standardized Precipitation Index Method

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was designed to quantify the precipitation deficits for
multiple time scales. These time scales reflect the impact of drought on the availability of the different
water sources. Soil moisture conditions respond to precipitation anomalies on a relatively short scale
while ground water stream flow and reservoir storage reflect the long-term precipitation anomalies. For
these reasons, (Mckee et al, 1993) originally calculated the SPI for 3-, 6-, 12-. 24- and 48-month time
scales.
The SPI for any location is based on the long-term precipitation record for a desired period and is
calculated by taking the difference of the precipitation for a particular time scale and the long-term mean
and then dividing by the standard deviation.

SPI =

Rt M

(6.8)

Where t is the standard deviation for the month Rt and Rt is the monthly rainfall and Mt is the mean
monthly rainfall.
Positive SPI values indicate greater than mean precipitation while negative values indicate less than mean
precipitation. Because the SPI in normalized wetter and drier climates can be represented in the same
way, (Mckee et al, 1993) used the classification system shown in the SPI values in Table 6.1 to define
drought intensities resulting from the SPI climatic analysis. This technique is being used at the National
Drought Mitigation Centre, USA to monitor moisture supply conditions. The SPI can be used to monitor
hydrological conditions and flood risk, because it can also determine, wetter than normal conditions
(Seiler et al, 2002).
From 6 month and 12 month SPI data (Kayondo, 2001), East Africa was delineated into 7 homogenous
drought zones, which resembled the six homogenous zones identified by harmonic analysis.
A study (Rugumayo, Maiteki, 2006) using both drought volumes and SPI methods was carried out on two
Ugandan climatic regions, CE (Rakai) and K (Masindi). Fig 6.8 shows the logarithmic plot of SPI drought
volumes against return period for Rakai, which gives a straight line and Fig 6.9 gives the plot of SPI
against drought volumes for Moroto (Rugumayo et al, 2007). A comparison of the results shows a linear
relationship between the two indices, with a good correlation.
Table 0.6: SPI ranges and Drought Severities
SPI range

Intensity of Climate

2.0 and above

Extremely wet

1.5 to 1.99

Very wet

1.0 to 1.49

Moderately wet

-0.99 to 0.99

Near Normal

-1.0 to 1.49

Moderately dry

-1.5 to 1.99

Severely dry

- 2.0 and below

Extremely dry
18

SPI Drought Plot for Rakai

10

y=0.007x+1.1533

y = 1.6211Ln(x) + 0.0779

6
5

SPI

Drought Volume

4
3
2

6
4
2

1
0
1

10

100

1000

Return Period(years)

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Drought volumes

Fig 0.8 A Plot of SPI Drought against Return Period

for Rakai

Fig 0.9 SPI and Drought Volumes for Moroto

compared

A drought event occurs any time the SPI is continuously negative and reaches intensity where the SPI is 1.0 or less. The event ends when the SPI becomes positive. Each drought event therefore has a duration
defined by its beginning and end and intensity for each month that the event continues.
The cumulated magnitude of the drought or the drought magnitude is the positive sum of the SPI for all
the months within the drought event. This standardization allows the SPI to determine the rarity of the
current drought as well as the probability of the precipitation necessary to end the current drought.

Example 6.2
The data given below are monthly rainfall values (Rt) taken from a rain-gauge station at Kisoro
Police Post.Using the SPI method estimate the Annual Drought Magnitudes of the area.
Year
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

Jan
84
53
59
145
239
164
67
97

Feb
162
41
69
120
142
226
23
60

Mar
131
99
125
189
215
200
89
247

Apr
160
50
68
321
171
381
188
180

May
153
58
89
166
70
107
233
42

Jun
32
37
138
13
11
143
0
63

Jul
2
0
33
26
149
46
19
38

Aug
104
151
80
54
38
74
117
31

Sep
65
260
154
110
170
466
163
217

Oct
143
248
274
252
141
335
109
125

Nov
212
139
288
305
228
250
134
174

Dec
143
133
100
190
128
100
45
62

19

Solution

a) Calculate the monthly means (mmt) and monthly standard deviations (mstdev ) for the
given data

Year
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

mmt
mstdev

Jan
84
53
59
145
239
164
67
97
114
64.6

Feb
162
41
69
120
142
226
23
60
105
69

Mar
131
99
125
189
215
200
89
247
162
58

Apr
160
50
68
321
171
381
188
180
190
113

May
153
58
89
166
70
107
233
42
115
65

Jun
32
37
138
13
11
143
0
63
55
56

Jul
2
0
33
26
149
46
19
38
39
47

Aug
104
151
80
54
38
74
117
31
81
41

Sep
65
260
154
110
170
466
163
217
201
123

Oct
143
248
274
252
141
335
109
125
203
84

Nov
212
139
288
305
228
250
134
174
216
64

Dec
143
133
100
190
128
100
45
62
113
46

b) Calculate the SPI values for the different months using Equation 6.8

SPI = (Rt- mmt)/mstdev

Where
SPI = standard precipitation index, Rt = monthly rainfall, mmt = mean monthly rainfall
and mstdev= monthly standard deviation

Year
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1952
1953

Jan
-0.5
-0.9
-0.8
0.49
1.94
0.78
-0.7
-0.3

Feb
0.8
-0.9
-0.5
0.2
0.5
1.7
-1.2
-0.7

Mar
-0.5
-1.1
-0.6
0.5
0.9
0.7
-1.2
1.5

Apr
-0.3
-1.2
-1.1
1.2
-0.2
1.7
0.0
-0.1

May
0.6
-0.9
-0.4
0.8
-0.7
-0.1
1.8
-1.1

Jun
-0.4
-0.3
1.5
-0.7
-0.8
1.6
-1.0
0.1

Jul
-0.8
-0.8
-0.1
-0.3
2.3
0.1
-0.4
0.0

Aug
0.6
1.7
0.0
-0.7
-1.0
-0.2
0.9
-1.2

Sep
-1.1
0.5
-0.4
-0.7
-0.2
2.2
-0.3
0.1

Oct
-0.7
0.5
0.8
0.6
-0.7
1.6
-1.1
-0.9

Nov
-0.1
-1.2
1.1
1.4
0.2
0.5
-1.3
-0.7

Dec
0.7
0.4
-0.3
1.7
0.3
-0.3
-1.5
-1.1

c) From the above table drought exists, IF SPI<0. This implies that there exists a drought
only if the monthly rainfall is less than expected monthly mean, hence the negative
20

values in the table. The positive values imply that the monthly rainfall is more than the
expected monthly mean hence no drought. Record the magnitude of negative SPI values
as drought and obtain the annual drought magnitudes as below,

Year
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1952
1953

Jan
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.3

Feb
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.7

Mar
0.5
1.1
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.0

Apr
0.3
1.2
1.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1

May
0.0
0.9
0.4
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.0
1.1

Jun
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.7
0.8
0.0
1.0
0.0

Jul
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0

Aug
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
1.0
0.2
0.0
1.2

Sep
1.1
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.0

Oct
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
1.1
0.9

Nov
0.1
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.7

Dec
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.5
1.1

magnitude
3.9
7.4
4.3
2.4
3.7
0.6
8.7
6.0

6.8.5 Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

The PDSI index results from calculations of a soil moisture algorithm, a model developed by Palmer in 1965,
which uses precipitation, temperature data and local available water content (AWC) of the soil. The index
indicates standardised moisture conditions and allows comparisons to be made between locations and
between months. PDSI varies roughly between -6.0 and +6.0. The Palmer classifications are shown in the
Table 6.2.
Table 0.7 Palmer Classifications
Range
4 or more
3 to 4
2 to 3
1 to 2
- 1 to +1
-1 to -2
-2 to -3
-3 to -4
< -4

Classification
extremely wet
very wet
moderately wet
Slightly wet
Normal conditions
Mild drought
Moderate drought
Severe drought
Extreme drought

The PDSI was the first comprehensive drought index developed in the United States and is widely used in
U.S. They are normally calculated on a monthly basis.
Some limitations of PDSI are as follows; Palmer values may lag emerging droughts by several months which
limits their application in areas of frequent climatic extremes, like south west Asia. Another limitation is that
its computation is complex and requires substantial input of meteorological data. The use of Palmers
arbitrary threshold is also not very appealing compared to other engineering terms such as return period.

21

6.8.6 Bhalme-Mooley Drought Index (BMDI)

BMDI is defined for a month period as;

BMDI

where ik =c1 ik1 + coPk

for month k.

1
K

k =1

ik
(6.9)

io =0 is the monthly index, and Pk is the standardardized precipitation amount

Pk = ( pk mk ) / dk

(6.10)

Here, pk is the monthly precipitation with the mean of mk and standard deviation of dk. The two
coefficients c1 and c0 can be estimated by assigning a value BMDI = -4 to severe historical droughts
and proportionally higher values to normal conditions: BMDI=0. BMDI may be considered as a
simplified version of the PSDI. Monthly moisture conditions can be defined as in the Table 6.3:
Table 0.8 BMDI Classifications
Value

Condition

BMDI>4

Extremely wet

4>BMDI>3

Very wet

3>BMDI>2

Moderately wet

2>BMDI>1

Slightly wet

1>BMDI>-1

Near normal

-1>BMDI>-2

Mild drought

-2>BMDI>-3

Moderate drought

-3>BMDI>-4

Severe drought

-4>BMDI

Extreme drought

6.8.7 Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI)

Here, snow forms a large component of the water balance. SWSI integrates reservoir storage, streamflow and
two precipitation types (snow and rain) at high elevations into a single index number, and is expressed as;

(6.11)
Where
-

a, b, c and d are weights for snow, rain, streamflow and reservoir storage respectively
(a + b + c + d =1).
P = the probability (%) of non-exceedance for each of these four water balance components.

22

Calculations are performed on a monthly time step. In winter, snow pack, precipitation and reservoir storage
data are used while in summer, stream flow, precipitation and reservoir storage data are used. The SWSI
index is easy to calculate and gives a representative measure of water availability across a river basin or
region. The limitations of the method are that they may not apply for large regions with significant spatial
hydrological variability. Also the weights may differ from one region to another. Similarly, hydraulic
structures like dams, diversions will require modification of weights for each water-balance component.
A modification of SWSI is called the Reclamation Drought Index (RDI), similar to SWSI, but includes the
evaporation component. RDI classifications: 0 to -1.5 = Normal to mild droughts, -1.5 to -4.0 = Moderate
droughts, less than -4.0 = Severe drought.
6.8.8 Crop Moisture Index (CMI)
The Crop Moisture Index, also developed by Palmer (1968) is a compliment of the PDSI. It measures the
degree to which crop moisture requirements are met. It is more responsive to short term changes in moisture
conditions and is not intended to assess long-term droughts. CMI is normally calculated with a weekly time
step, based on the mean temperature, total precipitation for each week and the CMI value from the previous
week. Each growing season, CMI typically begins and ends near zero.
6.8.9 Effective Drought Index (EDI)
EDI is a function of precipitation need for a return to normal conditions (PRN). PRN is the precipitation
which is necessary for the recovery from the accumulated deficit since the beginning of the drought. PRN, in
turn, effectively stems from daily effective precipitation and its deviations from the mean for each day.
Unlike other drought indices, the EDI is calculated with a daily time step. It can at the same time be
calculated using monthly data. The range of EDI variation is from -2 to 2. Table 6.4shows the EDI
classification as was for the PDSI.
Table 0.9 EDI Classifications
EDI Range
Less than -2
-1.5 < EDI < 1.99
- 1 < EDI < 1.49
- 0.99 < EDI < 0.99

Classification
Extreme dry conditions
Severe drought
Moderate drought
Near normal conditions

The limitation of the method is that it is based on precipitation data, which may not be readily available, from
government agencies in many developing countries in Africa and Asia.
6.8.10 Deciles
In this approach, monthly precipitation totals from a long term record (preferably 30-50 years) are ranked
from highest to lowest to construct a cumulative frequency distribution. The distribution is then split into 10
parts (deciles). The first decile is the precipitation value not exceeded by the lowest 10% of all precipitation
values in a record; the second is between the lowest 10 and 20% etc. Any precipitation value can be
compared with and interpreted in terms of the deciles. Decile Indices (DI) are classified into 5 classes, 2
deciles per class as shown in Table 6.5.

23

Table 0.10 Decile Classifications

Decile
Deciles 1 and 2
Deciles 3 to 4
Deciles 5 to 6
Deciles 7 to 8
Deciles 9 to 10

(less than 20%)

(20 to 40%)
(40 to 60%)
(60 to 80%)
(80 to 100%)

Classification
Much below normal
Below normal precipitation
Near normal precipitation
Above normal
Much above normal

DI is relatively simple to calculate, requires only precipitation data and fewer assumptions. Hence it is
appropriate for conditions in South West Asia and Africa where there is limited data.
6.8.11 Percent of Normal
Normal usually refers to a long term mean or median precipitation value. It may be calculated for a day, a
month, a season or a year and is considered 100%. There are many definitions of drought based on
percentage of normal. What is normal may be perceived differently in different regions.
For instance, in India, meteorological drought is defined when rainfall in a month or a season is less that 75%
of its long-term mean. If rainfall is 50-74% of the mean, a moderate drought event is assumed to occur, and
when rainfall is less than 50% of its mean, a severe drought occurs.
Droughts in South Africa are defined as periods with less than 70% of the normal precipitation.
6.8.12 Indices from Remote Sensing
There are several other drought related indices which are derived from remote sensing. These include
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced vegetation Index (EVI), Vegetation Condition
Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI).
6.8.13 Incorporating Drought Indices into Software Packages
Until recently, most hydrological models had no specific routines to address issues of drought assessment and
management. Current models are now being incorporated with that component. One of these models is called
the SPATSIM (Spatial and Time series Information Modelling) software package which was developed by
the Institute of Water Research (IWR) of Rhodes University in South Africa during 1999-2002. It is a
relatively new software product and is quickly gaining recognition in South Africa and other countries. It
contains an integrated database management system that uses GIS shape files as the main form of data access
and also includes a number of input models such as rainfall-runoff simulations, flow assessment and design
flood models. Its flexible environment incorporates such routines that address requirements of IWMIs
drought assessment and mitigation in south East Asia. These requirements include; ensuring that existing
data-import facilities are satisfactory for the south west Asia region, facility for generating time-series of
drought indices from rain data interpolated from station rainfall data, facility for regional analysis of drought
indices and documentation of all new facilities in the SPATSIM help system.
Below are the main steps to set up a typical project:
i) Organise spatial coverage (SPATSIM features) representing rain gauge locations for monthly rainfall
data and administrative areas or catchments.
ii) Add and give names to new attributes of different types that will store and manage raw and
processed data. E.g. for rain gauge point coverage, a time series attribute will be used to store
monthly rainfall data.
iii) Import raw data.
24

iv) Generate area rainfall data.

v) Generate drought indices. The package allows the user to select from different index types.
vi) Generate Summary drought index information.
vii) Visualise drought-Summary information using graphs and maps. The maps show the spatial
distribution of the drought-index selected for a particular month.
6.8.14 Applications of Drought Indices in East Africa
A study( Kayondo and Gan, 2003) was carried to analyse the properties of three popular drought indices (as
non basin specific) in East Africa,namely the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PSDI), the Bhalme Mooley
Index (BMI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and modify them where necessary, to increase their
general effectiveness and dependability in detecting droughts. A second objective was by using East Africa as
a case example: identify assessment criteria for determining the most appropriate drought index on a regional
basis. The results show that the PSDI was modified, since it did not give reasonable results in some drier
parts of East Africa, the SPI was also modified to produce more representative results of East Africa Drought
conditions. Furthermore, although BMI only uses precipitation data, its index values still strongly correlate to
the modified PSDI in East Africa, which suggest that precipitation data alone can be used to explain the
variability of East African drought. They concluded that SPI is more suitable for monitoring droughts in East
Africa than PSDI or BMI, because, among other reasons, i) it is easily adapted to local climate, ii) it has
modest data requirements, iii) it can be computed at any time scale and yet can extract more or less the same
information contained by the temporally fixed PDSI and iv) easy to interprete. They propose a criteria for
determining a drought index most appropriate for monitoring drought as follows: i) characteristics, statistical
properties and variability of drought indices, ii) detailed analysis of a major historical drought, iii) adaptation
of drought indices to local climate, iv) unbounded index values, v) spatially invariable ( representing the same
information independant on the site being investigated, vi) should have a flexible time scale, vii) modest data
requirements and viii) ease of interpretation.

6.9 Drought Mitigation

6.9.1 Constraints
A study (Rugumayo et al, 2006) was done on drought management in Karamoja region, being a
representative of a semi arid and war torn region and in the northern part of the cattle corridor, whose
main livelihood is pastoral nomadism. It was observed that most of the community was not aware of the
use and value of drought monitoring facilities such as weather stations. As such, they end up destroying
these facilities by vandalizing and looting them. The end result is that, very few weather stations are left
operational hence making the availability of up-to-date data to analyze difficult.
The difficulty in accessing accurate up-to-date data to analyze may also have been brought about by a
lack of a culture of record-keeping and whenever warriors vandalize a weather station, sometimes they
burn or destroy weather station records. There is need to back up these records.
The insecurity in the region is another hinderance to proper drought management. The weather station
premises, staff and their property are at a risk because of this insecurity.
For people to get water during a drought, many times water supply facilities are installed in the region.
Unfortunately, many a time these facilities are damaged, vandalized or abandoned by the people.

25

6.9.2 Methods
In order to improve the capacity to monitor drought in a region like Karamoja and implement drought
mitigation measures nationally, the following need to be carried out;
i)
Sensitisation of the community on the importance of water conservation and significance of the
weather stations in data collection.
ii)
Establishing a national or regional task force that can work with the community on a drought
mitigation plan.
iii)
Rehabilitation of non functional weather stations and water schemes.
iv)
Monitoring of groundwater resources, to determine their potential as alternative water sources.
Available data suggests that recharge occurs through indirect and localised mechanisms. If so,
effects caused by higher temperatures due to global warming may be more than offset by the
predicted increase in future precipitation resulting in an overall increase in groundwater
resources. This availability may have a significant role in peace building (Gavigan et al, 2008)
v)
The use of remote sensing, global information systems and global positioning systems in data
analysis. Different types of drought require indicators. Some indicators are more suited to
monitor agrcultural drought and others to assess hydrological and meteorological drought. This
should be guided by the goal of the assessment, which can be the intensity, exceptionality or
impact of drought. For agricultural drought, water balance indicators are preferred (De Pauw,
2000).
vi)
The incorporation of traditional methods in the development of new technologies for water
conservation.
vii)
Development of early warning and decision support systems.This requires the availability of
historical data. Recent developments in early warning and climate prediction services make it
possible to predict ENSO-related extreme climate events with a lead time of a few months. On
this basis target groups can be alerted (Ambeje, 2000). At the international level there is FAOcoordinated Global Information Early Warning Systems (GIEWS), which is an information
network for early warning of food shortages. There is also need for coordination at the national
level between the water supply, irrigation, agricultural extension services, meteorological
departments and NGOs about the extent and impact of drought.
viii)
The expansion of the existing water network to include more facilities like valley tanks earth
dams, protected wells, springs and boreholes. Valley tanks, earth dams are particularly important
especially, for livestock. Individual households could construct smaller water ponds and leave
valley tanks for extreme conditions.
ix)
The use of rainwater harvesting techniques should be encouraged from the household to the
communal and institutional levels.
x)
Herd management is an important strategy. Factors to be considered include the drought
duration, the current water and feed supplies, the composition and body condition of the herd.
The herd management practices will include the following techniques i) reduction of herd
numbers through sale or agistment,ii) strategic weaning of calves, which gives a cow better
chances of survival and providing calves with a supplemental diet,iii) herd segregation which
gives the herd a better chance of survival through preferential treatment of vulnerable classes, iv)
parasite control, since cattle under nutritional and other stresses are more vulnerable than those
under normal conditions , v) Optimal use of drought affected paddocks and vi) avoidance of
contaminated water sources by the cattle, by fencing for instance.
6.9.3 An Integrated Framework
An Expert Group Meeting on Early Warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and Drought
Management, organized by World Meteorological Organization and the Secretariat of the United Nations
Convention to Combat Desertification, held in Lisbon, Portugal, in September 2000, made the following
recommendations:
26

i) A Drought Mitigation Plan should be integrated, proactive and incorporate the following elements:
a) Drought Monitoring and early warning system
b) Drought risk and impact assessment and
c) Institutional arrangements including mitigation and response actions and programs
All the above elements need to be supported by research.
ii) A vulnerability profile should also be developed in order to capture the socioeconomic conditions of
diverse population and regions.
iii) There is a need to improve existing observation networks and establish new networks for
hydrological, meterological and hydrological observations and the associated analytical predictive tools.
This would include:
a) Identifying weaknesses in the current observation systems, including critical needs of marginal
areas and most drought prone areas
b) Using drought monitoring products that are prepared, in collaboration with decision makers and
are user friendly.
c) Perodic user evaluation, of drought monitoring products.
iv) The social, economic and environmental assessment of drought impacts should be assessed by:
a) Identifying appropriate and relevant physical and social indicators
b) Developing triggers that link indicators of drought severity to impacts duribg the onset and
termination of drought conditions
c) Appropriate interpretation of information and clearly informing decision makers in a timely
manner.
v) The oobjectives of a national drought policy should be broadly stated and:
a) Establish a clear set of principles or operating guidelines to govern drought management
b) Be consistent and equitable for all regions, population groups and socio economic sectors
c) Be consistent with the goals of sustainable development
d) Reflect regional differencesin drought characteristics, vulnerability and impacts
e) Promote principles of risk management by encouraging the development of:
o Reliable forecast
o comprehensive early warning systems
o preparedness plans at all levels
o Mitigation policies and programsthat reduce drought impacts
o A coordinated emergency response thatensures timely and targeted relief during
drought emergencies
Summary
Drought affects our meteorology, hydrology, agriculture, plant life, animals, and our socio- economic
livelihood in different ways. It is necessary to be able to understand these effects, both qualitatively and
quantitatively. This chapter discusses the various types of drought the causes and impacts and several
methods of analysing drought and subsequently predicting it.. The effects of drought are very significant
though varying depending on the purpose for which water is required. An understanding of the impacts
that a lack of water give rise to is imperative if one has to mitigate them. This extreme event in hydrology
needs to be examined when considering the hydrology of any area, for proper water resources
management. Early warning systems and a drought management plans at the national level need to be
developed to reduce the adverse impacts of drought.

27

References
1. Ambenje,P.G., Regional Drought Monitoring Centeres The Case of Eastern and Southern Africa
Proceedings of an Expert Group Meeting on Early Warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and
Drought Management, September 5-7, 2000, World Meteorological Organisation, Lisbon, Portugal.
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Change Scenario on Minimum Groundwater Levels, Journal of Chartered Institution of Water and
Environmental Management, Vol 17, pp.86-91, 2003 London, UK.
3. Camberlin, P., Rainfall Anomalies in the Source Region of the Nile and their Connection with the
Indian Summer Monsoon, Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society 1997, Vol 10,
pp1380-1392, Washington, USA.
4. DePauw,E., Drought Early Warning Systems in West Asia and North Africa, Proceedings of an
Expert Group Meeting on Early Warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and Drought
Management, September 5-7, 2000, World Meteorological Organisation, Lisbon, Portugal.
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Uganda and potential Role of Groundwater Development in Livelihood Adaptation and Peace
Building, Proceedings Groundwater and Climate in Africa, 2008, Kampala, Uganda, Ministry of
Water and Environment, University College, London.
6. Gibbs, W.J., Maher, J.V., Rainfall Deciles as Drought Indicators, Meteorology Bulletin, No 48,
Commonwealth of Australia, Melbourne.
7. Glantz, M.H., Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies: M.H. Glantz, R. Wikatz., N.
Nicholls (Ed), pp 401-430, Cambridge University Press,1991, Cambridge,UK.
8. Haan.,C.T., Statistical Methods in Hydrology, Iowa State University, 1983, Iowa USA.
9. Hayes, M.J., What is Drought? National Drought Mitigation Centre Nebraska, Lincoln, USA
http://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis?indices.htm accessed on February 9 2008.
10. Herbst, P.H., Bredenkamp, D.B. and Barker, H.M.G. (1966), A Technique for the Evaluation of
Drought from Rainfall Data, Journal of Hydrology, Vol.4, pp.264-272.
11. Jones, J.A.A., Global Hydrology, Longman, 1996, London, UK.
12. Kayondo, H.N., Gan, T.Y.,Drought Indices and their Application to East Africa, International
Journal of Climatology, 23, pp1335-1357, 2003,Royal Meterological Society, London UK.
13. Kayondo, H.N., The Analysis and Prediction of Droughts in East Africa, PhD Thesis, 2001,
University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.
14. Maunder, W.J., A Dictionary of Climate Change, The University College, London Press, 1992,
London, UK .
15. McKee,T.B., Doesken, N.J., Kliest, J., Standardized Precipitation Index, Use in Drought Analysis
Colorado University,1993, Colorado, USA.
16. McKee,T.B., Doesken, N.J., Kliest, J., The relationship to Drought Duration to Time Scales,
Preprints, 8th Conference on Applied Climatology,1993, Annaheim, California, USA.
17. Mubiru, P., Lake Victorias Water Levels and Power Generation in Uganda, A Guest Lecture,
Uganda Institution of Professional Engineers,2006 Kampala, Uganda.
18. Ogallo, L.A., Validity of the ENSO Related Impacts in Eastern and Southern Africa in
M.Glantz(ed). Usable Science: Food Security and El Nino, pp. 179-184. Proceedings of the
workshop on ENSO/FEWS, Budapest Hungary, UNEP 1994, Nairobi, Kenya and NCAR Boulder,
Colorado, UK.
19. Palmer, W.C., Keeping track of Crop moisture conditions nationwide, A Crop Moisture Index,
Weatherwise 21, pp 156-161,1968.
20. Palmer, W.C., Meteorological Drought, Research Paper No 45, U.S, Department of Commerce,
1965, Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, USA.
21. Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert, M.S., Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with
El Nino Southern Oscillation, Monthly Weather Review, 1987, 115, pp1606-1626.
28

22. Rugumayo, A.I., Eyagu, E., Kizza, M.K., Drought Analysis and Mitigation in Karamoja Region,
Proceedings of the 3rd Asia Pacific Hydrology and Water Resources Conference, 2006, Bangkok,
Thailand.
23. Rugumayo, A.I., Maiteki, J.M., Drought Analysis and a Comparison of Methods, A Case Study of
Western Uganda. Advances in Geosciences, Vol 4: Hydrological Science. World Scientific
Publishing Company, 2006, Singapore.
24. Rugumayo, A.I., Mwebaze, D.B., Drought Intensity and Frequency Analysis: A Case Study of
Western Uganda. Journal of Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management, Vol 16,
pp.111-115, 2002 London, UK.
25. Seiler, R.A., Hayes, M., Bressan, L., Using the Standardized Precipitation Index for Flood Index
Monitoring, , International Journal of Climatology, 22, pp1365-1376, 2002,Royal Meterological
Society, London UK .
26. Shafer, B.A., Dezman, L.E., Development of a Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) to Assess the
Severity of Drought Conditions in Snowpack Runoff Areas, Proceedings of the Western Snow
Conference, pp164-175, Colorado State University, 1982, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
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Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Water Management Journal 2007,Vol 160 pp135144, London, UK.
30. Wilhite, D.A.,Sivakumar, M.V.K., Wood, D.A., Ed., Proceedings of an Expert Group Meeting on
Early Warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and
Drought Management, September 5-7,
2000, World Meteorological Organisation, Lisbon, Portugal.
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Questions
1. What do you understand by the term drought?
2.

How can drought be mitigated?

3.

Determine the effective rainfall for Moroto in the month of February 1947 given the monthly rainfall
as 0.0mm, the mean monthly rainfall as 19.00mm, the monthly rainfall in January 1947 as 2.00mm
and the mean monthly rainfall in January as 9.8mm. The mean annual rainfall is 83.33mm.

4.

The table below gives the monthly effective rainfall, the mean monthly rainfall and the mean monthly
deficit for 50 years for Kasese Meteorological station. Determine the monthly rainfall deficits, the
drought volumes, intensity and severity.

29

Monthly Effective Rainfall in Kasese

YEAR

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

1931
1932
1933
1934
Mean
50yrs
MMD
50yrs

32.00
82.86
109.89
0.00
53.06

83.19
22.13
116.29
0.00
64.27

262.66
47.08
0.00
0.00
100.27

333.00
85.77
0.00
43.76
125.07

89.44
22.56
31.72
122.93
81.65

0.00
0.00
1.27
0.00
28.93

3.33
0.00
0.00
9.29
21.27

86.65
0.00
109.07
36.48
61.21

145.25
109.36
120.22
27.86
94.75

88.91
280.09
0.00
85.39
107.58

92.20
33.04
100.64
141.46
124.10

129.94
56.79
26.09
95.97
74.55

31.16

30.22

28.79

33.33

32.13

19.28

15.84

29.01

38.35

32.31

39.20

32.42

5. Discuss the causes of drought.

6. Discuss the sequences of the impacts of drought.
7. Explain four methods of analyzing drought.

8. The data given below are monthly rainfall values taken from a rain-gauge station at Kapkwata in
Kapchorwa District, using the SPI method calculate the Annual Drought Magnitudes of the area.

Year
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965

Jan
65
53
85
88
35
0
52
74
6
0

Feb
31
8
56
97
63
27
7
70
53
0

Mar
28
63
40
54
143
77
76
75
113
109

Apr
301
324
158
222
156
160
165
342
178
121

May
203
316
255
236
154
215
232
178
149
121

Jun
104
128
201
70
78
166
124
115
105
82

Jul
186
240
225
188
130
213
220
267
201
103

Aug
244
188
230
166
214
322
142
153
195
145

Sep
113
33
127
141
192
159
123
17
326
49

Oct
135
53
63
173
153
209
92
58
129
249

Nov
46
44
47
111
104
442
88
190
14
204

Dec
25
30
102
10
62
115
63
228
142
62

9. Briefly explain what you understand by:

i.
Physiological drought
ii.
Climatological and atmospheric drought
iii.
Socio- economic drought
10. Distinguish between meteorological drought and agricultural drought.
11. Discuss the constraints to mitigating drought and how they can be overcome.
12. Why is integrated drought management important?

30