Probability: Tossing A Coin

4/20/2015
Probability
Probability
Howlikelysomethingistohappen.
Manyeventscan'tbepredictedwithtotalcertainty.Thebestwecansayishowlikely
theyaretohappen,usingtheideaofprobability.
TossingaCoin
Whenacoinistossed,therearetwopossibleoutcomes:
heads(H)or
tails(T)
WesaythattheprobabilityofthecoinlandingHis.
AndtheprobabilityofthecoinlandingTis.
ThrowingDice
Whenasingle die isthrown,therearesixpossibleoutcomes:
1,2,3,4,5,6.
Theprobabilityofanyoneofthemis1/6.
Probability
Ingeneral:
Probabilityofaneventhappening=
Numberofwaysitcanhappen
Totalnumberofoutcomes
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html
1/6
4/20/2015
Probability
Example:thechancesofrollinga"4"withadie
Numberofwaysitcanhappen:1(thereisonly1facewitha"4"onit)
Totalnumberofoutcomes:6(thereare6facesaltogether)
Sotheprobability=
1
6
Example:thereare5marblesinabag:4areblue,and1isred.
Whatistheprobabilitythatabluemarblegetspicked?
Numberofwaysitcanhappen:4(thereare4blues)
Totalnumberofoutcomes:5(thereare5marblesintotal)
Sotheprobability=
4
5
=0.8
Probability Line
Wecanshowprobabilityona ProbabilityLine :
Probabilityisalwaysbetween0and1
Probability is Just a Guide

2/6
4/20/2015
Probability
Probabilitydoesnottellusexactlywhatwillhappen,itisjustaguide
Example:tossacoin100times,howmanyHeadswillcomeup?
Probabilitysaysthatheadshaveachance,sowecanexpect50Heads.
Butwhenweactuallytryitwemightget48heads,or55heads...or
anythingreally,butinmostcasesitwillbeanumbernear50.
Learnmoreat ProbabilityIndex .
Words
SomewordshavespecialmeaninginProbability:
ExperimentorTrial:anactionwheretheresultisuncertain.
Tossingacoin,throwingdice,seeingwhatpizzapeoplechooseareallexamplesof
experiments.
SampleSpace:allthepossibleoutcomesofanexperiment
Example:choosingacardfromadeck
Thereare52cardsinadeck(notincludingJokers)
SotheSampleSpaceisall52possiblecards:{AceofHearts,2of
Hearts,etc...}
TheSampleSpaceismadeupofSamplePoints:
SamplePoint:justoneofthepossibleoutcomes
3/6
4/20/2015
Probability
Example:DeckofCards
the5ofClubsisasamplepoint
theKingofHeartsisasamplepoint
"King"isnotasamplepoint.Asthereare4Kingsthatis4differentsample
points.
Event:asingleresultofanexperiment
ExampleEvents:
GettingaTailwhentossingacoinisanevent
Rollinga"5"isanevent.
Aneventcanincludeoneormorepossibleoutcomes:
Choosinga"King"fromadeckofcards(anyofthe4Kings)isan
event
Rollingan"evennumber"(2,4or6)isalsoanevent
TheSampleSpaceisallpossibleoutcomes.
ASamplePointisjustonepossibleoutcome.
AndanEventcanbeoneormoreofthe
possibleoutcomes.
Hey,let'susethosewords,soyougetusedtothem:
4/6
4/20/2015
Probability
Example:Alexwantstoseehowmanytimes
a"double"comesupwhenthrowing2dice.
EachtimeAlexthrowsthe2diceisanExperiment.
ItisanExperimentbecausetheresultisuncertain.
TheEventAlexislookingforisa"double",wherebothdicehavethesame
number.Itismadeupofthese6SamplePoints:
{1,1}{2,2}{3,3}{4,4}{5,5}and{6,6}
TheSampleSpaceisallpossibleoutcomes(36SamplePoints):
{1,1}{1,2}{1,3}{1,4}...{6,3}{6,4}{6,5}{6,6}
TheseareAlex'sResults:
Experiment
Isita
Double?
{3,4}
No
{5,1}
No
{2,2}
Yes
{6,3}
No
...
...
After100Experiments,Alexhas19"double"Events...isthatcloseto
whatyouwouldexpect?
5/6
4/20/2015
Probability: Complement
Probability:Complement
ComplementofanEvent:AlloutcomesthatareNOTtheevent.
WhentheeventisHeads,thecomplementisTails
Whentheeventis{Monday,Wednesday}thecomplementis
{Tuesday,Thursday,Friday,Saturday,Sunday}
Whentheeventis{Hearts}thecomplementis{Spades,Clubs,
Diamonds,Jokers}
SotheComplementofaneventisalltheotheroutcomes(nottheoneswewant).
AndtogethertheEventanditsComplementmakeallpossibleoutcomes.
Probability
Example:thechancesofrollinga"4"withadie
Numberofwaysitcanhappen:1(thereisonly1facewitha"4"onit)
Totalnumberofoutcomes:6(thereare6facesaltogether)
Sotheprobability=
1
6
Theprobabilityofaneventisshownusing"P":
P(A)means"ProbabilityofEventA"
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-complement.html
1/4
4/20/2015
ThecomplementisshownbyalittlemarkafterthelettersuchasA'(orsometimesAc
orA):
P(A')means"ProbabilityofthecomplementofEventA"
Thetwoprobabilitiesalwaysaddto1
P(A)+P(A')=1
Example:Rollinga"5"or"6"
EventA:{5,6}
Numberofwaysitcanhappen:2
Totalnumberofoutcomes:6
P(A)=
2
6
1
3
TheComplementofEventAis{1,2,3,4}
Numberofwaysitcanhappen:4
Totalnumberofoutcomes:6
P(A')=
4
6
2
3
Letusaddthem:
P(A)+P(A')=
1
3
2
3
3
3
=1
Yep,thatmakes1
2/4
4/20/2015
Itmakessense,right?EventAplusalloutcomesthatarenotEventA
makeupallpossibleoutcomes.
Why is the Complement Useful?

Itissometimeseasiertoworkoutthecomplementfirst.
Example.Throwtwodice.Whatisthe
probabilitythetwoscoresaredifferent?
Differentscoresarelikegettinga2and3,ora6and
1.Itisquitealonglist:
A={(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),
(2,1),(2,3),(2,4),...etc!}
Butthecomplement(whichiswhenthetwoscoresarethesame)isonly6
outcomes:
A'={(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)}
Andtheprobabilityiseasytoworkout:
P(A')=6/36=1/6
KnowingthatP(A)andP(A')togethermake1,wecancalculate:
P(A)=1P(A')=11/6=5/6
Sointhiscaseit'seasiertoworkoutP(A')first,thenfindP(A)
3/4
4/20/2015
Probability: Types of Events
Probability:TypesofEvents
Lifeisfullofrandomevents!
Youneedtogeta"feel"forthemtobeasmartandsuccessfulperson.
Thetossofacoin,throwofadiceandlotterydrawsareallexamplesofrandom
events.
Events
Whenwesay"Event"wemeanone(ormore)outcomes.
ExampleEvents:
GettingaTailwhentossingacoinisanevent
Rollinga"5"isanevent.
Aneventcanincludeseveraloutcomes:
Choosinga"King"fromadeckofcards(anyofthe4Kings)isalso
anevent
Rollingan"evennumber"(2,4or6)isanevent
Eventscanbe:
Independent(eacheventisnotaffectedbyotherevents),
Dependent(alsocalled"Conditional",whereaneventisaffectedbyother
events)
MutuallyExclusive(eventscan'thappenatthesametime)
Let'slookateachofthosetypes.
Independent Events
Eventscanbe"Independent",meaningeacheventisnotaffectedbyanyother
events.
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-types.html
1/5
4/20/2015
Thisisanimportantidea!Acoindoesnot"know"thatitcameupheadsbefore...each
tossofacoinisaperfectisolatedthing.
Example:Youtossacointhreetimesanditcomesup"Heads"eachtime...
whatisthechancethatthenexttosswillalsobea"Head"?
Thechanceissimply1/2,or50%,justlikeANYOTHERtossofthe
coin.
Whatitdidinthepastwillnotaffectthecurrenttoss!
Somepeoplethink"itisoverdueforaTail",butreallytrulythenexttossofthecoinis
totallyindependentofanyprevioustosses.
Saying"aTailisdue",or"justonemorego,myluckisdue"iscalledThe
Gambler'sFallacy
Learnmoreat IndependentEvents .
Dependent Events
Butsomeeventscanbe"dependent"...whichmeanstheycanbeaffectedby
previousevents.
Example:Drawing2CardsfromaDeck
Aftertakingonecardfromthedecktherearelesscardsavailable,sothe
probabilitieschange!
Let'slookatthechancesofgettingaKing.
Forthe1stcardthechanceofdrawingaKingis4outof52
Butforthe2ndcard:
2/5
4/20/2015
Ifthe1stcardwasaKing,thenthe2ndcardislesslikelytobea
King,asonly3ofthe51cardsleftareKings.
Ifthe1stcardwasnotaKing,thenthe2ndcardisslightlymore
likelytobeaKing,as4ofthe51cardsleftareKing.
Thisisbecauseweareremovingcardsfromthedeck.
Replacement:Whenweputeachcardbackafterdrawingitthechances
don'tchange,astheeventsareindependent.
WithoutReplacement:Thechanceswillchange,andtheeventsare
dependent.
Youcanlearnmoreat DependentEvents:ConditionalProbability
Tree Diagrams
WhenwehaveDependentEventsithelpstomakea" TreeDiagram "
Example:SoccerGame
Youareofftosoccer,andlovebeingtheGoalkeeper,butthatdependswho
istheCoachtoday:
withCoachSamyourprobabilityofbeingGoalkeeperis0.5
withCoachAlexyourprobabilityofbeingGoalkeeperis0.3
SamisCoachmoreoften...about6ofevery10games(aprobabilityof
0.6).
Let'sbuildtheTreeDiagram!
StartwiththeCoaches.Weknow0.6forSam,soitmustbe0.4forAlex(the
probabilitiesmustaddto1):
3/5
4/20/2015
ThenfilloutthebranchesforSam(0.5Yesand0.5No),andthenforAlex
(0.3Yesand0.7No):
Nowitisneatlylaidoutwecancalculateprobabilities(readmoreat" Tree
Diagram s").
Mutually Exclusive
MutuallyExclusivemeanswecan'tgetbotheventsatthesame
time.
Itiseitheroneortheother,butnotboth
Examples:
TurningleftorrightareMutuallyExclusive(youcan'tdobothatthesame
time)
HeadsandTailsareMutuallyExclusive
KingsandAcesareMutuallyExclusive
Whatisn'tMutuallyExclusive
KingsandHeartsarenotMutuallyExclusive,becausewecanhaveaKingof
Hearts!
4/5
4/20/2015
Likehere:
AcesandKingsare
MutuallyExclusive
HeartsandKingsare
notMutuallyExclusive
Readmoreat MutuallyExclusiveEvents
Search::Index::About::Contact::Contribute::CiteThisPage::Privacy
Copyright2014MathsIsFun.com
5/5
4/20/2015
Probability: Independent Events
Probability:IndependentEvents
Lifeisfullofrandomevents!
Youneedtogeta"feel"forthemtobeasmartandsuccessfulperson.
Thetossofacoin,throwingdiceandlotterydrawsareallexamplesofrandomevents.
Sometimesaneventcanaffectthenextevent.
Example:takingcoloredmarblesfromabag:asyoutakeeachmarblethere
arelessmarblesleftinthebag,sotheprobabilitieschange.
WecallthoseDependentEvents,becausewhathappensdependsonwhat
happenedbefore(learnmoreaboutthisat Conditionalprobability ).
ButotherwisetheyareIndependentEvents...
Independent Events
IndependentEventsarenotaffectedbypreviousevents.
Thisisanimportantidea!
Acoindoesnot"know"itcameupheadsbefore...
....eachtossofacoinisaperfectisolatedthing.
Example:Youtossacoinanditcomesup"Heads"threetimes
...whatisthechancethatthenexttosswillalsobea"Head"?
Thechanceissimply(or0.5)justlikeANYtossofthecoin.
Whatitdidinthepastwillnotaffectthecurrenttoss!
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html
1/8
4/20/2015
Somepeoplethink"itisoverdueforaTail",butreallytrulythenexttossofthecoinis
totallyindependentofanyprevioustosses.
Saying"aTailisdue",or"justonemorego,myluckisdue"iscalledThe
Gambler'sFallacy
Ofcourseyourluckmaychange,becauseeachtossofthecoinhasanequalchance.
Probability of Independent Events

"Probability"(or"Chance")ishowlikelysomethingistohappen.
Sohowdowecalculateprobability?
Example:whatistheprobabilityofgettinga"Head"
whentossingacoin?
Numberofwaysitcanhappen:1(Head)
Totalnumberofoutcomes:2(HeadandTail)
Sotheprobability=
1
2
=0.5
Example:whatistheprobabilityofgettinga"5"or"6"when
rollingadie?
Numberofwaysitcanhappen:2("5"and"6")
Totalnumberofoutcomes:6("1","2","3","4","5"and"6")
2/8
4/20/2015
Sotheprobability=
2
6
1
3
=0.333...
Ways of Showing Probability

Probability goesfrom0(imposssible)to1(certain):
Itisoftenshownasadecimalorfraction.
Example:theprobabilityofgettinga"Head"whentossingacoin:
Asadecimal:0.5
Asafraction:1/2
Asapercentage:50%
Orsometimeslikethis:1in2
Two or More Events

Wecancalculatethechancesoftwoormoreindependenteventsbymultiplyingthe
chances.
Example:Probabilityof3HeadsinaRow
Foreachtossofacoina"Head"hasaprobabilityof0.5:
3/8
4/20/2015
Andsothechanceofgetting3Headsinarowis0.125
SoeachtossofacoinhasachanceofbeingHeads,butlotsofHeadsinarowis
unlikely.
Example:Whyisitunlikelytoget,say,7headsinarow,when
eachtossofacoinhasachanceofbeingHeads?
Becauseweareaskingtwodifferentquestions:
Question1:Whatistheprobabilityof7headsinarow?
Answer:=0.0078125
(lessthan1%).
Question2:Giventhatwehavejustgot6headsinarow,whatisthe
probabilitythatthenexttossisalsoahead?
Answer:,astheprevioustossesdon'taffect
thenexttoss.
Youcanhaveaplaywiththe Quincunx toseehowlotsofindependenteffectscanstill
haveapattern.
Notation
Weuse"P"tomean"ProbabilityOf",
4/8
4/20/2015
So,forIndependentEvents:
P(AandB)=P(A)P(B)
ProbabilityofAandBequalstheprobabilityofAtimestheprobabilityofB
Example:yourfriendinvitesyoutoamovie,sayingitstarts
sometimeontheweekendbetween4intheafternoonand
midnight,butwon'tsaymore.
WhatarethechancesitstartsonSaturdaybetween6and8atnight?
Day:therearetwodaysontheweekend,soP(Saturday)=0.5
Time:between4andmidnightis8hours,butyouwantbetween6and8
whichisonly2hours:
P(YourTime)=2/8=0.25
And:
P(SaturdayandYourTime) =P(Saturday)P(YourTime)
=0.50.25
=0.125
Ora12.5%Chance
(Note:wecouldALSOhaveworkedoutthatyouwanted2hoursoutofa
totalpossible16hours,whichis2/16=0.125.Bothmethodsworkhere.)
Another Example
Imaginetherearetwogroups:
5/8
4/20/2015
Amemberofeachgroupgetsrandomlychosenforthewinnerscircle,
thenoneofthosegetsrandomlychosentogetthebigmoneyprize:
Whatisyourchanceofwinnningthebigprize?
thereisa1/5chanceofgoingtothewinnerscircle
anda1/2chanceofwinningthebigprize
Soyouhavea1/5chancefollowedbya1/2chance...whichmakesa1/10chance
overall:
1
5
1
2
1
52
1
10
Orwecancalculateusingdecimals(1/5is0.2,and1/2is0.5):
0.2x0.5=0.1
Soyourchanceofwinningthebigmoneyis0.1(whichisthesameas1/10).
Coincidence!
Many"Coincidences"are,infact,likely.
Example:youareinaroomwith30people,andfindthatZach
andAnnacelebratetheirbirthdayonthesameday.
Wouldyousay"wow,howstrange",or"thatseemsreasonable,withso
manypeoplehere".
6/8
4/20/2015
Infactthereisa70%chancethatwouldhappen...soitislikely.
Whyisthechancesohigh?
Becauseyouarecomparingeveryonetoeveryoneelse(not
justonetomany).
Andwith30peoplethatis435comparisons
(Read SharedBirthdays tofindoutmore.)
Example:Snap!
Didyoueversaysomethingthesameassomeoneelse,atthesametime
too?
Wow,howamazing!
Butyouwereprobablysharinganexperience(movie,journey,whatever)
andsoyourthoughtswouldbesimilar.
Andthereareonlysomanywaysofsayingsomething...
...soitislikethecardgame"Snap!"...
...ifyouspeakenoughwordstogether,theywilleventuallymatchup.
So,maybenotsoamazing,justsimplechanceatwork.
Canyouthinkofothercaseswherea"coincidence"wassimplyalikelything?
Conclusion
7/8
4/20/2015
Probabilityis:(Numberofwaysitcanhappen)/(Totalnumberof
outcomes)
DependentEvents(suchasremovingmarblesfromabag)are
affectedbypreviousevents
Independentevents(suchasacointoss)arenotaffectedby
previousevents
Wecancalculatetheprobabilityof2ormoreIndependentevents
bymultiplying
Notallcoincidencesarereallyunlikely(whenyouthinkabout
them).
Question1Question2Question3Question4
Question9Question10
8/8
4/18/2015
Conditional Probability
ConditionalProbability
HowtohandleDependentEvents
Lifeisfullofrandomevents!Youneedtogeta"feel"forthemtobeasmartand
successfulperson.
Independent Events
Eventscanbe" Independent ",meaningeacheventisnotaffectedbyanyother
events.
Example:Tossingacoin.
Eachtossofacoinisaperfectisolatedthing.
Whatitdidinthepastwillnotaffectthecurrenttoss.
Thechanceissimply1in2,or50%,justlikeANYtossofthecoin.
SoeachtossisanIndependentEvent.
Dependent Events
Buteventscanalsobe"dependent"...whichmeanstheycanbeaffectedby
previousevents...
Example:MarblesinaBag
2blueand3redmarblesareinabag.
Whatarethechancesofgettingablue
marble?
Thechanceis2in5
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-conditional.html
1/12
4/18/2015
Butaftertakingoneoutthechanceschange!
Sothenexttime:
ifwegotaredmarblebefore,thenthechanceofabluemarblenext
is2in4
ifwegotabluemarblebefore,thenthechanceofabluemarble
nextis1in4
Seehowthechanceschangeeachtime?Eacheventdependsonwhathappenedin
thepreviousevent,andiscalleddependent.
Thatisthekindofthingwelookathere.
"Replacement"
Note:ifwereplacethemarblesinthebageachtime,thenthechances
donotchangeandtheeventsare independent :
WithReplacement:theeventsareIndependent(thechances
don'tchange)
WithoutReplacement:theeventsareDependent(thechances
change)
Tree Diagram
A TreeDiagram :isawonderfulwaytopicturewhatisgoingon,solet'sbuildonefor
ourmarblesexample.
Thereisa2/5chanceofpullingoutaBluemarble,anda3/5chanceforRed:
2/12
4/18/2015
Wecanevengoonestepfurtherandseewhathappenswhenweselectasecond
marble:
Ifabluemarblewasselectedfirstthereisnowa1/4chanceofgettingabluemarble
anda3/4chanceofgettingaredmarble.
Ifaredmarblewasselectedfirstthereisnowa2/4chanceofgettingabluemarble
anda2/4chanceofgettingaredmarble.
Nowwecananswerquestionslike"Whatarethechancesofdrawing2
bluemarbles?"
Answer:itisa2/5chancefollowedbya1/4chance:
Didyouseehowwemultipliedthechances?Andgot1/10asaresult.
Thechancesofdrawing2bluemarblesis1/10
3/12
4/18/2015
Notation
Welovenotationinmathematics!Itmeanswecanthenusethepowerofalgebra
toplayaroundwiththeideas.Sohereisthenotationforprobability:
P(A)means"ProbabilityOfEventA"
InourmarblesexampleEventAis"getaBlueMarblefirst"withaprobabilityof2/5:
P(A)=2/5
AndEventBis"getaBlueMarblesecond"...butforthatwehave2choices:
IfwegotaBlueMarblefirstthechanceisnow1/4
IfwegotaRedMarblefirstthechanceisnow2/4
Sowehavetosaywhichonewewant,andusethesymbol"|"tomean"given":
P(B|A)means"EventBgivenEventA"
Inotherwords,eventAhasalreadyhappened,nowwhatisthechanceofeventB?
P(B|A)isalsocalledthe"ConditionalProbability"ofBgivenA.
Andinourcase:
P(B|A)=1/4
Sotheprobabilityofgetting2bluemarblesis:
Andwewriteitas
4/12
4/18/2015
"ProbabilityofeventAandeventBequals
theprobabilityofeventAtimestheprobabilityofeventBgiveneventA"
Let'sdothenextexampleusingonlynotation:
Example:Drawing2KingsfromaDeck
EventAisdrawingaKingfirst,andEventBisdrawingaKingsecond.
ForthefirstcardthechanceofdrawingaKingis4outof52(thereare4
Kingsinaceckof52cards):
P(A)=4/52
ButafterremovingaKingfromthedecktheprobabilityofthe2ndcard
drawnislesslikelytobeaKing(only3ofthe51cardsleftareKings):
P(B|A)=3/51
Andso:
P(AandB)=P(A)xP(B|A)=(4/52)x(3/51)=12/2652=
1/221
Sothechanceofgetting2Kingsis1in221,orabout0.5%
Finding Hidden Data

UsingAlgebrawecanalso"changethesubject"oftheformula,likethis:
5/12
4/18/2015
Startwith: P(AandB)=P(A)xP(B|A)
Swapsides: P(A)xP(B|A)=P(AandB)
DividebyP(A): P(B|A)=P(AandB)/P(A)
Andwehaveanotherusefulformula:
"TheprobabilityofeventBgiveneventAequals
theprobabilityofeventAandeventBdividedbytheprobabilityofeventA
Example:IceCream
70%ofyourfriendslikeChocolate,and35%likeChocolateANDlike
Strawberry.
WhatpercentofthosewholikeChocolatealsolikeStrawberry?
P(Strawberry|Chocolate)=P(ChocolateandStrawberry)/
P(Chocolate)
0.35/0.7=50%
50%ofyourfriendswholikeChocolatealsolikeStrawberry
Big Example: Soccer Game

Youareofftosoccer,andwanttobetheGoalkeeper,
butthatdependswhoistheCoachtoday:
withCoachSamtheprobabilityofbeingGoalkeeperis0.5
withCoachAlextheprobabilityofbeingGoalkeeperis0.3
6/12
4/18/2015
SamisCoachmoreoften...about6outofevery10games(aprobabilityof0.6).
So,whatistheprobabilityyouwillbeaGoalkeepertoday?
Let'sbuilda treediagram .Firstweshowthetwopossiblecoaches:SamorAlex:
TheprobabilityofgettingSamis0.6,sotheprobabilityofAlexmustbe0.4(together
theprobabilityis1)
Now,ifyougetSam,thereis0.5probabilityofbeingGoalie(and0.5ofnotbeing
Goalie):
IfyougetAlex,thereis0.3probabilityofbeingGoalie(and0.7not):
Thetreediagramiscomplete,nowlet'scalculatetheoverallprobabilities.Remember
that:
P(AandB)=P(A)xP(B|A)
7/12
4/18/2015
Hereishowtodoitforthe"Sam,Yes"branch:
(Whenwetakethe0.6chanceofSambeingcoachandincludethe0.5chancethat
SamwillletyoubeGoalkeeperweendupwithan0.3chance.)
Butwearenotdoneyet!Wehaven'tincludedAlexasCoach:
An0.4chanceofAlexasCoach,followedbyan0.3chancegives0.12
Andthetwo"Yes"branchesofthetreetogethermake:
0.3+0.12=0.42probabilityofbeingaGoalkeepertoday
(Thatisa42%chance)
Check
Onefinalstep:completethecalculationsandmakesuretheyaddto1:
8/12
4/18/2015
0.3+0.3+0.12+0.28=1
Yes,theyaddto1,sothatlooksright.
Friends and Random Numbers

HereisanotherquitedifferentexampleofConditionalProbability.
4friends(Alex,Blake,ChrisandDusty)eachchoosearandomnumber
between1and5.Whatisthechancethatanyofthemchosethesame
number?
Let'saddourfriendsoneatatime...
First,whatisthechancethatAlexandBlakehavethesamenumber?
BlakecompareshisnumbertoAlex'snumber.Thereisa1in5chanceofamatch.
Asa treediagram :
Note:"Yes"and"No"togethermakes1
(1/5+4/5=5/5=1)
9/12
4/18/2015
Now,let'sincludeChris...
Buttherearenowtwocasestoconsider:
IfAlexandBlakedidmatch,thenChrishasonlyonenumbertocompareto.
ButifAlexandBlakedidnotmatchthenChrishastwonumberstocompare
to.
Andwegetthis:
Forthetopline(AlexandBlakedidmatch)wealreadyhaveamatch(achanceof
1/5).
Butforthe"AlexandBlakedidnotmatch"thereisnowa2/5chanceofChris
matching(becauseChrisgetstomatchhisnumberagainstbothAlexandBlake).
Andwecanworkoutthecombinedchancebymultiplyingthechancesittooktoget
there:
Followingthe"No,Yes"path...thereisa4/5chanceofNo,followedby
a2/5chanceofYes:
(4/5)(2/5)=8/25
Followingthe"No,No"path...thereisa4/5chanceofNo,followedby
a3/5chanceofNo:
(4/5)(3/5)=12/25
Alsonoticethatwhenweaddallchancestogetherwestillget1(agoodcheckthatwe
haven'tmadeamistake):
10/12
4/18/2015
(5/25)+(8/25)+(12/25)=25/25=1
NowwhathappenswhenweincludeDusty?
Itisthesameidea,justmoreofit:
OK,thatisall4friends,andthe"Yes"chancestogethermake101/125:
Answer:101/125
Buthereissomethinginteresting...ifwefollowthe"No"pathwecan
skipalltheothercalculationsandmakeourlifeeasier:
Thechancesofnotmatchingare:
(4/5)(3/5)(2/5)=24/125
Sothechancesofmatchingare:
1(24/125)=101/125
(Andwedidn'treallyneedatreediagramforthat!)
11/12
4/20/2015
Probability Tree Diagrams
ProbabilityTreeDiagrams
Calculatingprobabilitiescanbehard,sometimesweaddthem,sometimeswemultiply
them,andoftenitishardtofigureoutwhattodo...treediagramstotherescue!
Hereisatreediagramforthetossofacoin:
Therearetwo"branches"(HeadsandTails)
Theprobabilityofeachbranchiswrittenonthe
branch
Theoutcomeiswrittenattheendofthebranch
Wecanextendthetreediagramtotwotossesofacoin:
Howdowecalculatetheoverallprobabilities?
Wemultiplyprobabilitiesalongthebranches
Weaddprobabilitiesdowncolumns
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-tree-diagrams.html
1/5
4/20/2015
Nowwecanseesuchthingsas:
Theprobabilityof"Head,Head"is0.50.5=0.25
Allprobabilitiesaddto1.0(whichisalwaysagoodcheck)
TheprobabilityofgettingatleastoneHeadfromtwotossesis
0.25+0.25+0.25=0.75
...andmore
Thatwasasimpleexampleusing independentevents (eachtossofacoinis

independentoftheprevioustoss),buttreediagramsarereallywonderfulforfiguring
out dependentevents (whereaneventdependsonwhathappensintheprevious
event)likethisexample:
Example: Soccer Game

Youareofftosoccer,andlovebeingtheGoalkeeper,but
thatdependswhoistheCoachtoday:
withCoachSamtheprobabilityofbeingGoalkeeperis0.5
withCoachAlextheprobabilityofbeingGoalkeeperis0.3
SamisCoachmoreoften...about6outofevery10games(aprobabilityof0.6).
So,whatistheprobabilityyouwillbeaGoalkeepertoday?
Let'sbuildthetreediagram.Firstweshowthetwopossiblecoaches:SamorAlex:
TheprobabilityofgettingSamis0.6,sotheprobabilityofAlexmustbe0.4(together
2/5
4/20/2015
theprobabilityis1)
Now,ifyougetSam,thereis0.5probabilityofbeingGoalie(and0.5ofnotbeing
Goalie):
IfyougetAlex,thereis0.3probabilityofbeingGoalie(and0.7not):
Thetreediagramiscomplete,nowlet'scalculatetheoverallprobabilities.Thisisdone
bymultiplyingeachprobabilityalongthe"branches"ofthetree.
Hereishowtodoitforthe"Sam,Yes"branch:
(Whenwetakethe0.6chanceofSambeingcoachandincludethe0.5chancethat
SamwillletyoubeGoalkeeperweendupwithan0.3chance.)
Butwearenotdoneyet!Wehaven'tincludedAlexasCoach:
3/5
4/20/2015
An0.4chanceofAlexasCoach,followedbyan0.3chancegives0.12.
Nowweaddthecolumn:
0.3+0.12=0.42probabilityofbeingaGoalkeepertoday
(Thatisa42%chance)
Check
Onefinalstep:completethecalculationsandmakesuretheyaddto1:
0.3+0.3+0.12+0.28=1
Yes,italladdsup.
Conclusion
Sothereyougo,whenindoubtdrawatreediagram,multiplyalongthebranchesand
addthecolumns.Makesureallprobabilitiesaddto1andyouaregoodtogo.
4/5
4/20/2015
Mutually Exclusive Events
MutuallyExclusiveEvents
MutuallyExclusive:can'thappenatthesametime.
Examples:
TurningleftandturningrightareMutuallyExclusive(youcan'tdobothatthe
sametime)
Tossingacoin:HeadsandTailsareMutuallyExclusive
Cards:KingsandAcesareMutuallyExclusive
WhatisnotMutuallyExclusive:
Turningleftandscratchingyourheadcanhappenatthesametime
KingsandHearts,becausewecanhaveaKingofHearts!
Likehere:
AcesandKingsare
MutuallyExclusive
(can'tbeboth)
HeartsandKingsare
notMutuallyExclusive
(canbeboth)
Probability
Let'slookattheprobabilitiesofMutuallyExclusiveevents.Butfirst,adefinition:
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-mutually-exclusive.html
1/7
4/20/2015
Example:thereare4Kingsinadeckof52cards.Whatistheprobabilityof
pickingaKing?
Numberofwaysitcanhappen:4(thereare4Kings)
Totalnumberofoutcomes:52(thereare52cardsintotal)
Sotheprobability=
4
52
1
13
Mutually Exclusive
Whentwoevents(callthem"A"and"B")areMutuallyExclusiveitisimpossiblefor
themtohappentogether:
P(AandB)=0
"TheprobabilityofAandBtogetherequals0(impossible)"
ButtheprobabilityofAorBisthesumoftheindividualprobabilities:
P(AorB)=P(A)+P(B)
"TheprobabilityofAorBequalstheprobabilityofAplustheprobabilityofB"
Example:ADeckofCards
InaDeckof52Cards:
theprobabilityofaKingis1/13,soP(King)=1/13
theprobabilityofanAceisalso1/13,soP(Ace)=1/13
WhenwecombinethosetwoEvents:
2/7
4/20/2015
TheprobabilityofacardbeingaKingandanAceis0(Impossible)
TheprobabilityofacardbeingaKingoranAceis(1/13)+(1/13)=
2/13
Whichiswrittenlikethis:
P(KingandAce)=0
P(KingorAce)=(1/13)+(1/13)=2/13
Special Notation
Insteadof"and"youwilloftenseethesymbol(whichisthe"Intersection"symbol
usedin VennDiagrams )
Insteadof"or"youwilloftenseethesymbol(the"Union"symbol)
Example:ScoringGoals
Iftheprobabilityof:
scoringnogoals(Event"A")is20%
scoringexactly1goal(Event"B")is
15%
Then:
Theprobabilityofscoringnogoalsand1goalis0(Impossible)
Theprobabilityofscoringnogoalsor1goalis20%+15%=35%
Whichiswritten:
P(AB)=0
P(AB)=20%+15%=35%
3/7
4/20/2015
Remembering
Tohelpyouremember,think:
"Orhasmore...thanAnd"
Alsoislikeacupwhichholdsmorethan
Not Mutually Exclusive

Nowlet'sseewhathappenswheneventsarenotMutuallyExclusive.
Example:HeartsandKings
HeartsandKingstogetherisonlytheKingofHearts:
ButHeartsorKingsis:
alltheHearts(13ofthem)
alltheKings(4ofthem)
ButthatcountstheKingofHeartstwice!
Sowecorrectouranswer,bysubtractingtheextra"and"part:
4/7
4/20/2015
16Cards=13Hearts+4Kingsthe1extraKingofHearts
Countthemtomakesurethisworks!
Asaformulathisis:
P(AorB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AandB)
"TheprobabilityofAorBequalstheprobabilityofAplustheprobabilityofB
minustheprobabilityofAandB"
Hereisthesameformula,butusingand:
P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB)
A Final Example
16peoplestudyFrench,21studySpanishandthereare30altogether.Work
outtheprobabilities!
ThisisdefinitelyacaseofnotMutuallyExclusive(youcanstudyFrenchANDSpanish).
Let'ssaybishowmanystudybothlanguages:
peoplestudyingFrenchOnlymustbe16b
peoplestudyingSpanishOnlymustbe21b
Andweget:
5/7
4/20/2015
Andweknowthereare30people,so:
(16b)+b+(21b)=30
37b=30
b=7
Andwecanputinthecorrectnumbers:
Soweknowallthisnow:
P(French)=16/30
P(Spanish)=21/30
P(FrenchOnly)=9/30
P(SpanishOnly)=14/30
P(FrenchorSpanish)=30/30=1
P(FrenchandSpanish)=7/30
Lastly,let'scheckwithourformula:
P(AorB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AandB)
Putthevaluesin:
30/30=16/30+21/307/30
Yes,itworks!
6/7
4/20/2015
Summary:
MutuallyExclusive
AandBtogetherisimpossible:P(AandB)=0
AorBisthesumofAandB:P(AorB)=P(A)+P(B)
NotMutuallyExclusive
AorBisthesumofAandBminusAandB:P(AorB)=P(A)+
P(B)P(AandB)
Question9Question10
7/7

Probability: Tossing A Coin

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Probability: Tossing A Coin

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

4/20/2015

Probability is Just a Guide

Why is the Complement Useful?

Probability: Types of Events

Probability: Types of Events

Probability: Types of Events

Probability: Types of Events

Probability: Types of Events

Probability: Independent Events

Probability: Independent Events

Probability of Independent Events

Probability: Independent Events

Ways of Showing Probability

Two or More Events

Probability: Independent Events

Probability: Independent Events

Probability: Independent Events

Probability: Independent Events

(Read SharedBirthdays tofindoutmore.)

Probability: Independent Events

Finding Hidden Data

Big Example: Soccer Game

Let'sbuilda treediagram .Firstweshowthetwopossiblecoaches:SamorAlex:

Friends and Random Numbers

Probability Tree Diagrams

Probability Tree Diagrams

Thatwasasimpleexampleusing independentevents (eachtossofacoinis

Example: Soccer Game

Probability Tree Diagrams

Probability Tree Diagrams

Mutually Exclusive Events

Mutually Exclusive Events

Mutually Exclusive Events

Mutually Exclusive Events

Not Mutually Exclusive

Mutually Exclusive Events

Mutually Exclusive Events

Mutually Exclusive Events

You might also like