Research: Hypothesis

Dr. Ranjul Rastogi

Definition

the word hypothesis is derived form the Greek words

..is a hunch, assumption, suspicion, assertion or an idea about a phenomena,

relationship, or situation, the reality of truth of which one do not know

a researcher calls these assumptions, assertions, statements, or hunches

hypotheses and they become the basis of an inquiry.

In most cases, the hypothesis will be based upon either previous studies or the
researchers own or someone elses observations

Hypothesis is a conjectural statement of relationship between two or more

variable (Kerlinger, Fried N, Foundations of Behabioural Research , 3rd edition,
New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1986)

Definition

A tentative statement about something, the validity of which is usually

unknown (Black, James A & Dean J Champion, Method and Issues in Social
Research, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 1976)
Hypothesis is proposition that is stated is a testable form and that predicts a
particular relationship between two or more variable. In other words, ie, we
think that a relationship exists, we first state it is hypothesis and then test
hypothesis in the field (Baily, Kenneth D, Methods of Social Research, 3rd
edition, New York: The Free Press, 1978)
Hypotheses are predictions about the relationship among two or more variables or
groups based on a theory or previous research (Pittenger, 2003)
Hypotheses are assumptions or theories that a researcher makes and tests.

Definition

A hypothesis is written in such a way that it can be proven or disproven by

valid and reliable data in order to obtain these data that we perform our
study (Grinnell, Richard, Jr. Social Work Research and Evaluation, 3rd edition,
Itasca, Illinois, F.E. Peacock Publishers, 988)
A hypothesis may be defined as a tentative theory or supposition set up and
adopted provisionally as a basis of explaining certain facts or relationships and
as a guide in the further investigation of other facts or relationships (Crisp,
Richard D, Marketing Research, New York: McGraw Hill Book Co., 1957 )
Why are hypotheses important?

HYPOTHESIS - Formulation

A well
formulated

HYPOTHESIS
should

Contain conceptual
clarity
Be specific and precise
Relate to a body of
knowledge
Relate to the Research
question

Functions

Bringing clarity to the research problem

Serves the following functions
provides a study with focus
signifies what specific aspects of a research problem is to investigate
what data to be collected and what not to be collected
enhancement of objectivity of the study
formulate the theory
enable to conclude with what is true or what is false

Symbols used in Hypotheses

M= mean
(mu: mew)= population mean
Roman Letters (e.g., A, B, C, D) are used to
represent statistics
Greek Letters (e.g., , ) are used to
represent parameters
= significance level; probability of
committing a Type I Error (= .05)
p= probability value (p= .05)
Null Hypothesis= (H0: 1 - 2 = 0 or H0: 1 =
2)
Alternative Hypothesis= (H1: 1-2 0 or
H1: 1 2 )

Sometimes you may see it noted as HA

Typologies

Three types
working hypothesis
Null hypothesis
Alternate hypothesis

Working hypothesis
The working or trail hypothesis is provisionally adopted to explain the
relationship between some observed facts for guiding a researcher in the
investigation of a problem.
A Statement constitutes a trail or working hypothesis (which) is to be tested and
conformed, modifies or even abandoned as the investigation proceeds.

Typologies
Null hypothesis
A null hypothesis is formulated against the working hypothesis; opposes the
statement of the working hypothesis
....it is contrary to the positive statement made in the working hypothesis;
formulated to disprove the contrary of a working hypothesis
When a researcher rejects a null hypothesis, he/she actually proves a working
hypothesis
In statistics, to mean a null hypothesis usually Ho is used. For example,
Ho Q = O
where Q is the property of the population under investigation
O is hypothetical

Typologies
Alternate hypothesis
An alternate hypothesis is formulated when a researcher totally rejects null
hypothesis
He/she develops such a hypothesis with adequate reasons

The notion used to mean alternate hypothesis is H1 Q>O

i.e., Q is greater than O

Example
Working hypothesis: Population influences the number of bank branches in a
town

Null hypothesis (Ho): Population do not have any influence on the number of
bank branches in a town.

Alternate hypothesis (H1): Population has significant effect on the number of

bank branches in a town. A researcher formulates this hypothesis only after
rejecting the null hypothesis.

Statistical versus Research hypotheses

Statistical hypotheses

(null hypotheses): states that there is no

relationship between independent and
dependent variables
Research hypothesis

(scientific hypothesis): a statement of

expected relationship between the
variables. It can be directional or
nondirectional
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 The type of research design;

experimental or non-experimental, will
influence the wording of the hypothesis
In case of an experimental design, the
hypothesis will reflect cause effect
relationship
e.g. incidence of . will be greater in
subjects after . than after .
13

 Hypothesis related to non-experimental

designs reflect associative relationship
statements
e.g. there will be a positive relationship
between and .

14

Testing Hypotheses Cont.

We use a variety of statistical procedures

to test null hypotheses. The choice of
which procedure we use depends on a
variety of factors including:

the research hypothesis,

the data,
the sampling strategy,
and what we want to be able to say as a result
of our testing.
15

Types of Tests

Statistical procedures that are commonly used for

hypothesis testing include: correlation, analysis of
variance (ANOVA), analysis of covariance
(ANCOVA), regression, multivariate analysis of
variance (MANOVA), t-tests, and Chi-Square. Each
of these procedures has an associated test
statistic, which is used to determine significance.
For example ANOVA, ANCOVA, and regression use
F statistics and their associated p-values.
Multivariate procedures, like MANOVA, use a
variety of test statistics with interesting names,
like Wilks lambda. These are then related to a
more common test statistic, like F.
The secret here, for the layperson, is that all test
statistics are eventually related to a probability
distribution and a p-value. These p-values mean
the same thing across test statistics.

16

Error Types

In hypothesis testing, we must contend with two

types of errors -- Type I and Type II.

Errors are mistakes that we can make when judging the

null hypothesis

Type I error is what happens when the tested

hypothesis is falsely rejected. (It is when you say
you found something, but that something is
really an error.) A type I error is a false positive.
Type II error is what happens when a false
tested hypothesis is not rejected (Hays, 1986).
(It is when you dont find something that is, in
fact, there.) A type II error is a false negative.
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Error Types Cont.

Alpha is the level of probability (pre-set by the

researcher) that the tested hypothesis will be
falsely rejected. Alpha is the pre-set risk of a
Type I error. In other words, alpha is the degree
of risk that you accept, in advance of conducting
the study, that what you find will be an error.
Beta is the probability (often neglected by the
researcher) that a false null hypothesis will not
be rejected. Beta is the probability that you wont
find what you are looking for if, in fact, it is really
there.

18

Error Types Cont.

Error Types Chart

H0 is True H1 is True
Reject H0
Decision

Fail to
Reject
(decide in
favor of H0)

Type I

Correct
1-

Correct
1-

Type II

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Example
Do we use Null
Hypotheses in the
real world?
Innocent until Proven
Guilty

Defendant
Innocent

Defendant
Guilty

Reject
Presumption
of Innocence
(Guilty
Verdict)

Type I
Error

Correct

Fail to Reject
Presumption
of Innocence
(Not Guilty
Verdict)

Correct

Type II
Error

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Test Statistics, Probability, and

Significance
In order to test a hypothesis, we compare
the obtained value of a test statistic (e.g.,
the obtained F) to a critical value of the
test statistic (e.g., a critical F) that is
associated with the preset significance
level (alpha).
If the obtained value of the test statistic is
greater than the critical value, we
determine that there is a significant
difference or relationship.

21

Test Statistics, Probability, and

Significance Cont.

Test Statistic: The specific statistic (i.e., the

tool) that is chosen to test the null hypothesis.
Examples include F, t, r.
Obtained Value: The actual value obtained
when applying the test statistic to the data of
interest. The probability value associated with the
obtained value is p.
Critical Value: The critical value of the test
statistic that is associated with the chosen
significance level (alpha). If the obtained value is
greater that the critical value, the result is
significant.
22

Test Statistics, Probability, and

Significance Cont.

Probability Value: The probability that observed

relationships or differences are due to chance.
Alpha: Alpha is also known as significance level
or rejection region. It is the level of probability
set by the researcher as grounds for rejection of
the null hypothesis (Williams, 1986, p. 58). Alpha
is the probability level associated with the critical
value of the test statistic.
In other words, alpha is our predetermined risk
that differences that we declare to be real are
actually due to chance.
Obtained: This is also known as the obtained
probability (p): significance of the test
statistic. It is the probability that the data could
have arisen if Ho were true (Cohen, 1994, p.
23
998).

Test Statistics, Probability, and

Significance Cont.

Significance: What happens when the obtained

probability p is less than our predetermined alpha.
Significance also occurs when the obtained value of
the test statistic is greater than the critical value of
the test statistic.
Test Statistic Probability Value
Critical Value Significance Level (alpha)
Obtained Value Obtained or Actual Probability (p)
Note that larger obtained values of test statistics are
generally related with smaller values of p.
If Obtained Value > Critical Value, then * Significance *
If p < Alpha, then * Significance *

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Revisiting the Bell Curve

25

Steps in Hypothesis Testing for

Quantitative Research Designs

Hypothesis testing is a 4 phase procedure:

Phase I: Research Hypotheses, Design,

and Variables
Phase II: Statistical Hypotheses
Phase III: Hypotheses Testing
Phase IV: Decision/Interpretation

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Phase I: Research Hypotheses, Design,

and Variables
1.
2.

3.

State your research hypotheses.

Decide on a research design based on your
research problem, your hypotheses, and what
you really want to be able to say about your
results (e.g., if you want to say that A caused
B, you will need an experimental or time-series
design; if probable cause is sufficient, a quasiexperimental design would be appropriate).
Operationally define your variables. Recall that
one variable can have more than one
operational definition.

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Phase II: Statistical Hypotheses

1.
2.

Consider your chosen statistical

procedures.
Write one statistical null hypotheses for
each operational definition of each
variable that reflects that statistical
operations to be performed.

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Phase III: Hypotheses Testing

Complete the following steps for each statistical null

hypothesis:
1.

Select a significance level (alpha).

1.

Compute the value of the test statistic (e.g., F, r, t).

1.

Compare the obtained value of the test statistics with the critical
value associated with the selected significance level or compare
the obtained p-value with the pre-selected alpha value.

1.

If the obtained value of the test statistic is greater than the

critical value (or if the obtained p-value is less than the preselected alpha value), reject the null hypothesis. If the obtained
value is less than the critical value of the test hypothesis, fail to
reject the null hypothesis.

Another way of looking it: If p is less than or equal to

alpha, reject the null hypothesis.

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Phase IV: Decision/Interpretation

For each research hypothesis, consider the
decisions regarding the statistical null
hypotheses.
For each research hypothesis, consider
qualitative contextual information relating
potential plausibility.
Cautiously explain your findings with respect to
the research hypotheses.
List and discuss the limitations (threats to valid
inference).

1.

2.

3.
4.

Note: Null hypothesis testing is currently under

scrutiny (see e.g., Cohen, 1994; Kirk, 1996).

It is generally recommended that you report the effect

size along with the value of the test statistic and the
p-value. An alternative is to report confidence
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intervals.

Points to Consider about Hypotheses

Testing
FISHING IN LAKE ALICE
We dont prove the null hypothesis.

If you go fishing on Lake Alice and you dont

catch fish, you cannot conclude that there are
no fish in the lake!!!

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Points to Consider about Hypotheses

Testing Cont.

Returning to hypothesis testing:

Failure to reject the null hypothesis
cannot be interpreted as proof that no
differences or relationships exist. Existing
differences or relationships might be
obscured by:
1.
2.
3.
4.

insensitive outcome measures (the wrong

fishnet),
inappropriate statistical designs,
poor sampling strategies, and
low statistical power.
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RESEARCH QUESTION

What is a
RESEARCH
QUESTION

SA 4

A Research Question
embodies a gap in the
literature. It is a Question or
Questions posed so that an
answer or answers to it will
add knowledge in a particular
area or subject

RESEARCH QUESTION &

HYPOTHESIS

RESEARCH
QUESTION and
HYPOTHESIS

is
The early
identification of a
Research Question
will help in the
formulation of a
hypothesisypothesis

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE

RESEARCH QUESTION

The research question is the starting point

of the study. Everything flows from the
research question. It will determine the
population to be studied, the setting for
the study, the data to be collected, and
the time period for the study. A clear and
concisely stated research question is the
most important requirement for a
successful study.

Origins of a Research Question

Careful Observation of People

Application of New Technology
The Annoyance Principle
Build on Experience
Scientific Communications

Skeptical Attitude (questioning peers and status

quo)

Characteristics of a good research

question

FINER

Feasible

Interesting

To the field?

Ethical

To the investigator?

Novel

Adequate numbers of subjects?

Adequate technical expertise?
Affordable in time and money?
Is it possible to measure or manipulate the variables?

Potential harm to subjects?

Potential breech of subject confidentiality?

Relevant

To scientific knowledge/theory?
To organizational, health or social management and policy?
To individual welfare?

 Exploratory studies usually have research

questions not hypotheses
The outcome of an exploratory study may help
in formulating hypotheses for future studies

Qualitative research studies are guided by

research questions rather than hypotheses
The descriptive findings of qualitative studies
can provide the basis for future hypothesistesting studies
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Some studies may have research

questions and hypotheses. In
such case, research questions
do not pertain to the proposed
outcomes, rather, they may
provide additional information
that may enrich the study and
may provide direction for
further study
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Research question and Hypotheses

Examples

RQ: Is a happy worker a productive worker?

H1: Happier workers are more productive than
unhappy workers.
RQ: Does increasing the happiness of workers
make them more productive?
H1: Increasing the happiness of workers does not
increase productivity.