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FC Research

SRI LANKA
Corporate Update

Analyst: Reshan Wediwardana

SOFTLOGIC FINANCE PLC


CRL.N0000

Current Price: LKR 40.0

STRONG BUY
APR 2015

Fair Value: LKR 65.0

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

KEY DATA
Share Price (LKR)

40.00

52w High/Low (LKR)

49.0/31.0

Average Daily Volume (Shares)

37,199

Average Daily Turnover (LKR mn)

1.54

Issued Share Capital (Shares mn)


Market Capitalisation (LKR mn)

1,855

P/E 31 Mar
Net Interest Income (LKR mn)

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

2,278

3,339

3,948

4,961

6,005

Net Profit (LKR mn)

164

166

227

457

578

EPS (LKR)

3.2

3.3

4.5

9.0

11.4

1%

37%

101%

26%

3 mths 12mths

YoY % Growth
Valuations

36%

Price Performance (%)


1 mth
CRL

-24.0%

12.7%

PER (x)

12.4x

12.3x

8.9x

4.4x

3.5x

-3.2%
-9.3%
12.8%
Major Shareholders as at 30th December 2014

PBV (x)

1.7

1.6

1.0

0.8

0.6

Dividend Yield (%)

2.8%

2.8%

3.8%

7.6%

9.7%

Softlogic Capital PLC

62.38%

NAVPS

23.7

25.8

38.8

49.3

62.5

Vanik Incorporation PLC

14.35%

Adjusted DPS (LKR)

1.1

1.1

1.5

3.1

3.9

34%

34%

34%

34%

34%

-17.2%

ASPI

LB Finance PLC

4.11%

Royal Ceramic Lanka PLC

2.78%

Associated Electrical Corporation Ltd

1.90%

Public Holdings

36.95%

50

900

48

800

46

700

44

('000)

Price

Figure 1: CRL Price Volume Graph

600

42

500

40
400

38

Dividend Payout

Softlogic Finance (CRL) as one of the fast growing finance companies in Sri
Lanka is expected to achieve a 101% earnings growth amidst changing focus
on credit disbursement portfolio to high yielding segments, lowering
impairment stemming from leases and higher purchases and increasing
presence of branch network. We expect CRL to achieve an EPS of LKR 9.0 in
FY16E leading to a PER of 4.4x and PBV of 1.0x compared to sector average of
11.2x and 1.6x respectively. FC Research expects a total return of c.58% by
FY16E, based on a target price of LKR 65.0 (+54%) and a dividend yield of 3.6%.
Changing clientele may generate 32% growth in NII in FY16E: CRL has been
changing its product mix and focus from leases and hire purchases to Micro
finance in order to capture high yielding niche market segments by developing
innovative products. Hence, we expect net interest income to grow by 32% to
LKR 2bn in FY16E attributing to high yielding loans and advances growth of 25%
to LKR 11.5bn in FY16E. Further, we maintain our conservative forecast for
leases and hire purchases growth at 17% to LKR 8bn.

300

36
34

200

32

100

30
Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15

Volume

Price
(Source: www.cse.lk)

Disclaimer on Shareholding:
First Capital Holdings does not hold positions in CRL
except for 669,642 shares in First Capital Limited.
First Capital has not taken any positions in TJL in the
3 trading days prior this report while it does not
envisage taking positions in this share for the
succeeding 7 trading days to this report.

Efficient cost management and lowering impairment may drive +101% profit
growth in FY16E: We expect CRLs to lower impairment compared to FY15 due
declined exposure in leases and hire purchase portfolio. Further, strategic
branch expansion and cost management measures are expected to improve
CRLs cost-to-core-income ratio to 63% in FY16E from 67% in FY15E.
CRL may provide a total 1-year return of 58%: CRL at LKR 40.0, trades on a FY16E
PER of 4.4x and PBV of 1.0x. The counter may also provide a DPS of LKR 1.5 for
FY15E and LKR 3.1 for FY16E, which may translate into a dividend yield of 3.8%
and 7.6% respectively. On justified book value CRL is valued at LKR 58.0 while on
8.0x FY16E average PER the company is valued at LKR 72.0. On average we
provide a target price of LKR 65.0 for CRL for a 1-Year period providing a total
return of 58% - BUY.

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

1.0 Changing clientele may generate 32% growth in NII


in FY16E
Focus on niche-micro finance disbursement: CRL has newly instigated
focus on lending towards micro finance sector with lower risk profiles
which has enabled the company to gain higher net interest margins. The
novel micro product range which consist of group loans and cluster
financing (loans given to School Teachers, Government Servants and
etc) is expected to generate an average yield of 27% in FY16E as
opposed to 26% in FY15E. We expect CRLs new loan portfolio to achieve
a 25% growth in FY16E generating a net interest income of LKR 2bn.
Booming credit demand in focused segments: We expect credit growth
to pick up in selected segments in CRLs lending portfolio mainly from
the increasing salaries of state employees proposed by the interim
budget 2015. This may drive disbursements mainly in micro loan
segment which is currently not being touched by the commercial banks.
Lowered exposure in leases and hire purchases portfolio: CRL is
currently in a process of gradually tumbling its leases and hire purchases
portfolio due to immense competition in the sector mainly coming from
commercial banks and other large players in the industry. Though there
is a strong demand existing in the industry due to improved consumer
demand, banks and large finance companies have been capturing the
market with attractive rates.

10

Figure 3: Loans, Leases and Hire Purchases Growth QoQ

Growth QoQ

LKR Bn

Figure 2: Loans, Leases and Hire Purchases - Quarterly

9
8

70%
56%

50%
40%

30%

20%
10%

62%

60%

5%
5%

0%
4

-10%

-20%
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15

Lease and hire purchase receivables

Loans and receivables


(Source: Quarterly Reports)

2QFY14

2%

7%
6%
0%
3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
-12%
-6%
-15%
-19%

-30%
Lease and hire purchase receivables

Loans and receivables


(Source: Quarterly Reports)

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

Figure 4: Leasing Rates

Figure 5: Change in Disbursement Focus

LKR 400,000 leasing for a three wheeler


which is going to mature in 4 years.

20.6%

34.1%

22.7%
20.1%
17.5%

9,258

3,677

8,344

PLC

CFIN

LFIN

COCR

CRL

6,381

9MFY14

9MFY15

Lease and hire purchase receivables


(Source: FC Research Mistry Research Survey)

Loans and receivables


(Source: Quarterly Reports)

2.0 Efficient cost management and lowering


impairment may drive +134% profit growth in FY16E
Lowering impairment in line with dip in leases and hire purchases: CRL
incurred an impairment of LKR 328mn for FY14 and LKR 365mn in
9MFY15 mainly coming from repossessed vehicles, leases and hire
purchases. With the decline in lease and hire purchase portfolio, we
expect impairment to be moderate in FY16E and FY17E. However, being
conservative, for micro finance portfolio we have taken average
impairment level being used by other peers in the sector to formulate
our valuations. (5% of total disbursement)

Figure 6: Classification of Impairment in FY14


Other
receivables, 2%

Repossessed
vehicle stock,
3%

Loans and
receivables,
29%
Lease and hire
purchase, 66%

(Source: Annual Reports)

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

Efficient cost management may further support profitability: We


expect CRL to improve its cost to income ratio to 57% in FY16E as
opposed to 61% in FY14 mainly driven by higher net interest income
stemming from the niche market approach. Fee based income may also
support to gain higher profit growth amidst higher other operating
income.
Figure 7: Cost to Income - Annual

75%
71%

62%

61%

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E

57%

57%

FY16E

FY17E

(Source: Annual Reports and FC Research Estimates)

3.0 CRL may provide a total 1-year return of 72%:


P/E 31 Mar
Net Interest Income (LKR mn)
Net Profit (LKR mn)
EPS (LKR)

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

2,278

3,339

3,948

4,961

6,005

164

166

227

457

578

3.2

3.3

4.5

9.0

11.4

YoY % Growth
Valuations

36%

1%

37%

101%

26%

PER (x)

12.4x

12.3x

8.9x

4.4x

3.5x

PBV (x)

1.7

1.6

1.0

0.8

0.6

Dividend Yield (%)

2.8%

2.8%

3.8%

7.6%

9.7%

NAVPS

23.7

25.8

38.8

49.3

62.5

1.1

1.1

1.5

3.1

3.9

34%

34%

34%

34%

34%

Adjusted DPS (LKR)


Dividend Payout

CRL at LKR 40.0, trades on a FY16E PER of 4.4x and PBV of 1.0x. The
counter may also provide a DPS of LKR 1.5 and LKR 3.4 for FY15E and
FY16E, which may translate into a dividend yield of 3.8% and 7.6%
respectively.

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

On justified book value CRL is valued at LKR 57.6 while on 8.0x FY16E
average PER the company is valued at LKR 72.0. On average we provide
a target price of LKR 65.0 for CRL on 1 Year period providing a total
return of 58% - BUY.

3.1 Justified PBV


COE (K e)

Justified PBV based Valuation

FY16E

ROAE

20%

Rf

8%

Rm

14%

Growth

1.80

COE

18%

18%

PBV

1.2

NAVPS

49.3

Fair Value

57.6

3.2 PE Band
PE band based based Valuation

FY16E

EPS for FY16E

9.00

Average PER

8.0x

72

Fair Value

Figure 8: PE Band

PRice - LKR

Ke=Rf+ (Rm -Rf)

3%

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Jun-09
4.0x

Jun-10

Jun-11
6.0x

Jun-12
8.0x

Jun-13
10.0x

Jun-14
12.0x

Jun-15

Jun-16
Price

(Source: www.cse.lk and FC Research Estimates)

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

3.3 Fair value of LKR 71.0 and total return of 72%


Expected CRL price for FY16E 0
PER based target price
Justified PBV based target price
Average Fair Value

0
72
58
65

CRL price for FY16E

Return
Target Price

65

Current Price

42

Dividend FY15E

1.5

Capital Gain %

54%

Dividend Yield %

3.6%

Total Return %

58%

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

Appendix 1 Ratio Analysis


Ratio Analysis

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

FY18E

Capital
Equity / Assets

11.0%

9.1%

7.2%

9.6%

9.8%

10.2%

10.6%

Return on Average Equity

14.9%

14.2%

13.2%

13.8%

20.4%

20.4%

18.9%

Return on Average Assets

1.7%

1.4%

1.1%

1.2%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

Avg. yield on earning assets

24.9%

23.9%

27.2%

26.1%

27.3%

27.5%

27.5%

Avg. cost of funds

13.2%

14.2%

15.2%

14.1%

14.4%

14.6%

14.6%

Net Interest Spread

11.7%

9.7%

11.9%

12.0%

12.9%

12.9%

12.9%

Net Interest Margin

12.0%

9.3%

10.4%

10.4%

11.4%

11.1%

11.1%

Cost / Core-income

77%

78%

63%

67%

63%

63%

63%

Cost / Income

75%

71%

61%

61%

60%

59%

59%

Cost / Average Assets

8.4%

6.4%

5.6%

5.9%

6.1%

5.9%

5.8%

Cost / Branch (Rs.'Mn)

38.2

43.7

51.6

52.3

51.9

51.9

53.4

Earnings

Rev. / Employee (Rs.'Mn)

1.476

2.245

2.855

2.520

2.632

2.825

3.046

Asset Growth

128%

31%

38%

13%

24%

22%

20%

Deposit Growth

195%

49%

34%

30%

25%

23%

22%

54%

-38%

209%

-15%

20%

18%

10%

279%

50%

16%

137%

25%

21%

21%

79%

20%

15%

-15%

17%

17%

17%

109%

28%

15%

33%

21%

19%

19%

Loan / Deposits

176%

152%

131%

134%

130%

126%

123%

Loan / Funds

131%

182%

107%

164%

165%

167%

178%

Loan / Total Assets

82%

80%

67%

79%

77%

76%

75%

Deposit / Liabilities

52%

58%

55%

65%

66%

67%

68%

Employees

550

467

502

748

891

992

1,092

16

17

17

22

27

32

37

Asset Quality

Borrowings Growth
Loans & advances Growth
Leases & higher purchases Growth
Total Lending Growth
Liquidity

Branches
New Branches during the Year

(Source: Annual Reports and FC Research Estimates)

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

Appendix 2 Income Statement


Income Statement
P/E 31 March
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Net Interest Income

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

1,534
(793)
741

2,278
(1,391)
886

3,339
(2,058)
1,281

3,948
(2,377)
1,572

4,961
(2,885)
2,075

6,005
(3,578)
2,426

48
5
18
812

69
31
62
1,048

119
21
13
1,433

134
53
126
313

166
62
42
270

194
85
97
376

73

328

404

206

210

Net Operating Income

806

975

1,105

1,481

2,139

2,592

Personnel Expenses
Depreciation of Property, Plant and Equipment
Amortization of Intangible Assets
Other Operating Expenses
Total Operating Expenses

214
26
1
369
611

239
44
2
457
742

288
50
3
535
877

468
71
6
605
1,151

625
83
10
683
1,401

779
95
14
772
1,661

Operating Profit Before Value Added Tax (VAT)

195

233

228

330

737

931

Value Added Tax (VAT) on Financial Services


Profit Before Income Tax
Income Tax Expense
Profit for the Year

30
165
44
121

37
196
32
164

37
191
26
166

60
270
43
227

102
635
178
457

128
803
225
578

EPS

2.4

3.2

3.3

4.5

9.0

11.4

Fees and Commission Income


Net Trading Income
Other Operating Income
Total Operating Income
Impairment Charge / (Reversal ) for Loans and
Advances

(Source: Annual Reports and FC Research Estimates)

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

Appendix 3 Statement of Financial Position


Statement of Financial Position
P/E 31 March
Assets
Cash and cash equivalents
Financial investments - Available for sale
Financial investments - Held for trading
Lease and hire purchase receivables
Loans and receivables
Other non financial assets
Intangible assets
Property, plant & equipment
Total Assets

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

1,104
70
6,005
2,241
472
7
176
10,076

1,473
115
79
7,222
3,353
792
8
178
13,219

2,431
1,515
85
8,325
3,887
1,693
10
312
18,260

2,064
50
123
7,058
9,207
1,816
24
316
20,659

3,002
61
142
8,241
11,473
2,270
35
315
25,538

4,206
104
163
9,642
13,853
2,792
44
309
31,113

Liabilities
Due to banks
Derivative financial instruments
Due to customers
Other borrowed funds
Other non financial liabilities
Retirement benefit obligations
Deferred tax liabilities
Total Liabilities

1,153
4,682
2,564
481
12
75
8,968

2,653
6,957
1,581
744
14
65
12,014

1,597
11
9,313
4,888
1,073
22
47
16,950

1,627
12,107
4,159
724
22
47
18,684

1,971
15,133
4,983
877
22
47
23,034

2,350
18,614
5,860
1,046
22
47
27,938

Equity Attributable to Equity Holders of the Parent


Stated capital
Statutory reserve fund
Investment fund reserve
Retained earnings
Available for sale reserve
Total Equities

1,003
13
21
79
(8)
1,108

1,003
43
48
130
(19)
1,205

1,003
76
76
142
12
1,310

1,405
121
144
292
12
1,974

1,405
213
281
594
12
2,505

1,405
329
455
976
12
3,176

10,076

13,219

18,260

20,659

25,538

31,113

22

24

26

39

49

62

Total Liabilities and Equity


NAVPS

(Source: Annual Reports and FC Research Estimates)

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

Appendix 4 Peer Comparison


Name
Softlogic Finance
Commercial Credit And Finance

Symbol

Price

Trailing 12
NAVPS
months

PER

PBV

CRL.N0000

39.5

4.1

29.2

9.6x

1.4x

COCR.N0000

52.7

6.2

17.0

8.5x

3.1x

People's Leasing & Finance

PLC.N0000

23.0

2.6

13.2

8.8x

1.7x

Central Finance Company

CFIN.N0000

252.9

34.3

223.7

7.4x

1.1x

LB Finance

LFIN.N0000

164.0

30.3

106.8

5.4x

1.5x

Lanka Orix Finance

LOFC.N0000

4.0

0.5

2.8

7.8x

1.4x

Commercial Credit And Finance

COCR.N0000

52.7

6.2

17.0

8.5x

3.1x

Citizens Development Business Finance

CDB.N0000

85.0

11.0

71.1

7.7x

1.2x

Commercial Leasing & Finance

CLC.N0000

4.1

0.2

1.6

19.3x

2.6x

2,200.0

189.0

2,562.7

11.6x

0.9x

1,010.5

Mercantile Investments And Finance

MERC.N0000

Alliance Finance Company

ALLI.N0000

800.0

126.2

6.3x

0.8x

The Finance Company

TFC.N0000

15.5

(12.2)

(61.6)

-1.3x

-0.3x

Senkadagala Finance

SFCL.N0000

60.0

8.2

36.8

7.3x

1.6x

Softlogic Finance

CRL.N0000

39.5

4.1

29.2

9.6x

1.4x

Vallibel Finance

VFIN.N0000

46.1

8.5

33.8

5.4x

1.4x

Singer Finance

SFIN.N0000

19.5

2.1

13.6

9.3x

1.4x

Sinhaputhra Finance

SFL.N0000

174.8

16.3

165.1

10.7x

1.1x

AMCL.N0000

22.4

10.7

57.0

2.1x

0.4x

CSF.N0000

4.4

0.3

1.2

14.4x

3.7x

People`s Merchant Finance

PMB.N0000

24.5

(1.3)

14.0

-19.2x

1.8x

Orient Finance

ORIN.N0000

12.5

0.5

7.6

22.8x

1.6x

Arpico Finance Company

ARPI.N0000

158.9

30.8

117.4

5.2x

1.4x

Asia Asset Finance

AAF.N0000

1.8

0.1

1.5

14.4x

1.2x

AMW Capital Leasing And Finance


Nation Lanka Finance

Swarnamahal Financial Services

SFS.N0000

1.9

(1.5)

(2.5)

-1.2x

-0.8x

Abans Finance

AFSL.N0000

26.1

1.6

13.9

16.3x

1.9x

Associated Motor Finance Company

AMF.N0000

437.9

52.9

132.4

8.3x

3.3x

Brac Lanka Finance

NIFL.N0000

9.3

0.2

5.7

49.6x

1.6x

Trade Finance & Investments

TFIL.N0000

27.0

3.2

15.5

8.5x

1.7x

Bimputh Finance

BLI.N0000

40.0

2.1

15.6

19.4x

2.6x

George Steuart Finance

GSF.N0000

23.1

(2.3)

11.1

-10.2x

2.1x

Multi Finance

MFL.N0000

26.3

(0.9)

12.4

-30.4x

2.1x

Chilaw Finance

CFL.N0000

24.8

1.2

15.6

20.7x

1.6x

SMB Leasing

SEMB.N0000

1.0

0.1

0.6

19.9x

1.7x

Capital Alliance Finance

CALF.N0000

14.6

0.2

8.4

80.7x

1.7x

(Source: Quarterly Reports)

10

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

Appendix 5 Sensitivity Analysis


a. Growth Vs. Cost of Equity
Growth
57.6

Cost of Equity

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

15%

68.3

69.8

71.5

73.5

76.0

16%

63.8

64.8

66.0

67.4

69.1

17%

59.8

60.5

61.3

62.2

63.3

18%

56.6

57.1

57.6

58.2

58.9

19%

53.2

53.4

53.6

53.9

54.3

20%

50.4

50.4

50.5

50.6

50.6

21%

47.8

47.8

47.7

47.6

47.5

11

FC Research

New Clientele, Bigger Profit

First Capital Equities (Pvt) Ltd


No.1, Lake Crescent,
Colombo 2
Sales Desk:
+94 11 2145 000
Fax:
+94 11 2145 050

HEAD OFFICE

BRANCHES

No.1, La ke Cres cent,

Matara

Negombo

Col ombo 2

No. 24, Mezza ni ne Fl oor,

No.72A, 2/1,

Sa l es Des k:

+94 11 2145 000 E.H. Coora y Bui l di ng,

Ol d Chi l a w Roa d,

Fa x:

+94 11 2145 050 Ana ga ri ka Dha rma pa l a Mw,

Negombo

Ma ta ra
Tel :

+94 41 2237 636

SALES

Tel :

+94 31 2233 299

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CEO

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This Review is prepared and issued by First Capital Equities (Pvt) Ltd. based on information in the public domain, internally developed and other sources, believed to be correct. Although all reasonable care
This
Review
prepared
andofissued
byare
First
Capital
Equities
(Pvt)
based
on information
public domain,
internally
developed
other
has
been
taken tois
ensure
the contents
the Review
accurate,
First Capital
Equities
(Pvt)Ltd.
Ltd and/or
its Directors,
employees, in
are the
not responsible
for the correctness,
usefulness,
reliabilityand
of same.
First
Capital
Equities
(Pvt) Ltd may
a Broker in the
investments
are the subject
of this
document
related to
investments
have actedof
on or
used
the information
contained in First
this document,
sources,
believed
toact
beas correct.
Although
allwhich
reasonable
care
has
beenortaken
ensureand
themay
contents
the
Review
are accurate,
Capitalor
the research or analysis on which it is based, before its publication. First Capital Equities (Pvt) Ltd and/or its principal, their respective Directors, or Employees may also have a position or be otherwise
Equities (Pvt) Ltd and/or its Directors, employees, are not responsible for the correctness, usefulness, reliability of same. First Capital Equities (Pvt)
interested in the investments referred to in this document. This is not an offer to sell or buy the investments referred to in this document. This Review may contain data which are inaccurate and unreliable. You
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oremployees
the research
ortoanalysis
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