AhashtagsunintendedconsequencesinNigeria

EmmanuelAkinwotuisaBritishNigerianwriterbased
inLondonandaneditorandcontributortotheProject
forStudyofthe21stCenturyPS21AFRICAchannel.He
tweets@ea_akin.
AyearaftertheTwittercampaign#bringbackourgirls
putNigeriaonfrontpagesaroundtheworld,thewhereaboutsof219schoolgirlsabducted
byBokoHaramonApril14,2014remainsunknown.
Theglobalclamorfortheirrelease,ferociousinthemonthsafterthekidnappings,isnow
modest,bycomparison.Butthecampaignandevenmore,thebrutalconflictthat
sparkedithashadmajorconsequences.Overthepastyear,Nigeriahaschanged.
OnMarch28,forthefirsttimeinthecountryshistory,Nigeriasoppositionclaimed
victoryinapresidentialelectionjudgedfairandfree.PresidentGoodluckJonathans
rulingpartyconcededits16yeargriponpower,andisnowaweakenedforceafter
significantdefeatsinstateelections.
Thenewpresident,formerNigerianmilitaryleaderMuhammaduBuhari,isnot
universallypopular.Asheadofstatefrom1983to1985,hewaspartofadictatorial
regimethatcommittednumeroushumanrightsabuses.Hiseffortstofightcorruptionand
improvelivingstandardsledtoauthoritarianpolicies.
ButtheworldsinceBuharilastruledNigeriaisastarklydifferentplace,andtheself
proclaimedconverteddemocratwilllikelytakeamoreinclusiveandtechnocratic
approachthistimearound.
Hisvictoryrepresentssomethingelsethatsnew,too.Buhari,aMuslimfromtheNorth,
wonoverwhelminglyinthemajorityChristiansouthwest,aswellasacrossnorthern
states.HisAllProgressivesCongress(APC)party,arelativelynewallianceofsmall
oppositionparties,capitalizedonthegovernmentsperceivedfailuretotackledomestic
challengessuchascorruption,unreliableelectricityandpoverty.
NigeriasconflictwithBokoHaramalsohelpedtheAPCwin.Thebrutalinsurgencyhas
inpartmadevotersnostalgicforthekindofleadershipembodiedbyformermilitarymen

likeBuhari.Manyvotersfeltthat,comparedtotheincumbent,Buhariwoulddoabetter
jobtacklingsecurityandcorruptionaprioritythattrumpedreligiousdivides.
Andthatbringsusbacktothe#bringbackourgirlscampaign.Intheweeksfollowingthe
schoolgirlabductionslastyear,Nigeriancitizenswereoverwhelminglyskepticaloftheir
government.Thehashtagcampaignraisedglobalawarenessoftheplightofthemissing
girls,andalsoofthegovernmentsweakness.Itkeptattentiononthecrime,andplayeda
roleinthedeploymentofmorethan100U.S.SpecialForcestoadviseandsupportthe
Nigerianmilitary.
Butthecampaignsmostimportantimpactwasondomesticpolitics.Politiciansfaltered
underthepressureofaddedinternationalscrutiny.
NowNigerianpoliticswillnolongerbedominatedbyasingleparty.TheAPCswinhas
givenbalanceandalternativetoasystemthatdesperatelyneededit.
ButdemocracywontsolveallofNigeriastroubles.Theoilpriceswoonofthelastyear
hashitNigeriaseconomyhard.Oilexportsaccountfor75percentofgovernment
revenue,andwhilethepricehaslatelyrebounded,theNigerianeconomyremainsfragile.
Thecentralbankhaslargelycushionedthenairacurrencysfallinvalue,andwhilethe
economyhasslowlydiversifiedawayfromrelianceonoil,itmustdosomorerigorously.
Nigeriaseconomy,inneedofstructuralreforminavolatileglobaleconomicclimate,
willbeahugechallengeforBuharisgovernment.HisAPCpartymadeanumberof
grandpromises,includingnewwelfaresystemsfortheunemployedandstatefundednew
jobs.Implementingthesepoliciesmayprovedifficult,aswillprovidingreliable,
consistentelectricitynationwide.
AnditsnotclearwhetherBuharisdefianceandrhetoricagainstBokoHaramwillresult
intangiblechange.SuccessiveNigerianadministrationshavebeenunabletofixthe
systemicproblemsthatmaketheNortheastfertilegroundforterroristgroups.
TheanniversaryoftheabductionsinChibokayearagoreopensoldscars.The
governmentsfailuretodealwithBokoHaramwasexposedatthepriceof219girls,who
remainmissing.Thenewgovernmenthaspromisedchangeandnothingismore
importantthanprovidingsecuritytothepeopleofNigeria.

ThispieceoriginallyappearedonReuters.comonApril17,2015.
ProjectforStudyofthe21stCenturyisanonnational,nonpartisan,nonideological
organization.Allviewsexpressedaretheauthorsown.