April 20, 2015

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Volume 5, Issue I
Daily Exclusive

ORYZA Rice
Newsletter

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India 2014-15 Rabi Rice Planting Reaches 4.056

Million Hectares as of April 17, 2015; Down 7%
from Last Year
Apr 17, 2015

Planting for India 2014-15 rabi (secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around
4.056 million hectares as of April 17, 2015; down about 7% from around 4.355 million hectares
planted during the same period last year, according to preliminary data released by the Indian
Agriculture Ministry. Rabi rice acreage remained unchanged from the week-ended April 10,

2015.The decline is reportedly due to untimely rains in some part of the rabi rice growing
areas.The government of India, in its second advance estimates for major crops, has estimated
India's rice production for 2014-15 marketing year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around
103.04 million tons, down about 3% from an estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14,
according to a statement from the Agriculture Ministry. It estimates around 88.02 million tons
from kharif rice crop and around 15.02 million tons from rabi rice crop.
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Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Finish the Week Sharply Lower
as Market Fails to Spark Buying Interest
Apr 17, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 6 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at
$9.905 per cwt (about $218 per ton). The other grains finished the day flat to higher; Soybeans
closed about 0.3% higher at $9.6875 per bushel; wheat finished unchanged at $4.9450 per
bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.9% higher at $3.7975 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded
sharply lower on Friday, following a global decline in equities on renewed Greece concerns and
new Chinese trading regulations.
The major averages had their worst day since March 25. The Dow Jones industrial average
plunged more than 300 points to trade negative for the year. European stock indices ended
sharply lower on Friday, following a selloff in Chinese futures over news of coming government
regulation to expand short-selling and limit over-the-counter margin trading. Focus for European
markets has been on Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis' visit to meet IMF officials, as
investors become increasingly nervous about the funding crisis in Greece. The euro traded just
below $1.08, near highs for the week. The S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average of
2,085.02. The Dow also fell below its 50-day moving average. Futures held lower but above
morning lows after the consumer price index showed an increase of 0.2% in March, below
expectations of 0.3%. However, the figure marked the second-straight month of gains and
matched February's 0.2% gain. Core CPI,
excluding food and energy, came in slightly above expectations at 0.2%, the same level as in
February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 282 points, or 1.55%, at 17,825. The
S&P 500 traded down 24 points, or 1.13%, at 2,081, with consumer discretionary leading all ten
sectors lower. The Nasdaq traded down 76 points, or 1.52%, at 4,931. Gold is trading about 0.4%
higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1%
higher at about 1:15pm Chicago time.Thursday, there were 1,858 contracts traded, up from
1,516 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open interest the number of contracts outstanding on
Thursday increased by 201 contracts to 11,215.

Mauritania Achieves 86% Rice-Sufficiency in

2014
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Apr 17, 2015

Mauritania has achieved 86% self-sufficiency in rice production in 2014, according to

Bloomberg.The North-West African nation was only 35% self-sufficient in rice production in
2009. The government has achieved an increase in rice production through a consistent increase
in rice area since 2009. It increased paddy rice area to around 51,000 hectares from around
18,000 hectares in 2009, according to the Agriculture Minister.
Mauritania produced around 202,000 tons of rice in 2013-14.The country's rice area is estimated
at around 50,000 hectares in 2015. Earlier, the Agriculture Minister noted that the government is
expecting production in 2014-15 to be sufficient to meet 90% of the country's rice consumption
needs. He has also called on the local businessmen to in
vest in the country's rice sector.
Mauritania is a net importer of rice. It produces only 50% of the annual consumption needs and
imports the rest. USDA estimates the North-west African nation to produce around 215,000 tons
of rice, basis paddy (around 129,000 tons, basis milled), and import around 110,000 tons of rice,
basis milled, in MY 2014-15 (October - September).

Pakistan Millers Seek New Rice Export

Policy
Apr 17, 2015

Pakistan rice millers are urging the government to announce new rice export policy to help them
avoid huge losses due to low rice prices, according to local sources.Rice mill owners of Jhang,
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Layyah, Chiniot and Toba Tek Singh districts participated in a rally and staged a sit-in protesting
low prices of rice. They told local sources that the government has been indifferent to rice mill
owners' problems.
They demanded the government to come up with a new rice export policy that addresses all the
problems of rice millers and also announce subsidies to rice production. They also threatened

that if the government did not heed to their demands, they would extend the protests to other
cities as well.Pakistan rice exporters have also been constantly complaining that lack of proper
infrastructure facilities and tax sops are reducing the competitiveness of Pakistan rice producers
and exporters. Export prices of Pakistan 5% rice currently stand at around $380 per ton
compared to around $375 per ton, $375 per ton and $360 per ton of India 5% rice, Thai 5% rice
and Viet 5% rice respectively.
Pakistan exported around 3.16 million tons of rice in the fiscal year 2013-14 (July 2013 - June
2014). The South Asian country exported Pakistan has exported around 2.62 million tons of rice
(around 350,914 tons of basmati and around 2.27 million tons of non-basmati) in the first eight
months of FY 2014-15 (July 2014 - June 2015), slightly down from around 2.63 million tons
(around 418,502 tons of basmati and around 2.21 million tons of non-basmati) exported during
the same period in FY 2013-14.USDA estimates Pakistan to produce about 6.7 million tons of
rice, basis milled, and export around 3.9 million tons in MY 2013-14 (November 2013 October
2014).

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Panama Tenders to Buy 9,706 Tons of Rice

Apr 17, 2015

The government of Panama is planning to hold a tender for buying around 214,000 CWT
(around 9,706 tons) of rice for delivery between April 24 - June 30, 2015, according to
Prensa.com.The imports attract a duty of only 3% compared to normal 40% duty. According to
the Committee on Commodity Exchanges (Conabolpro), businesses interested in importing rice
at low import duty must submit a registration form to the Secretariat of the Commission for Duty
Free Quota Licensing.
The auction will be conducted on April 23, 2015.Panama's rice production in 2014-15 is likely to
decline due to a reduction of about 25% in paddy rice area to around 50,000 hectares from
around 50,000 hectares last year.USDA estimates Panama to produce 150,000 tons of milled rice
and import around 100,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (October - September) to meet a consumption
demand of around 250,000 tons.

Oryza Overnight Recap Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Fall to New Lows as Market
Lacks Fundamental Support and Technicals
Trigger Selling
Apr 17, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently noted 12.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per
ton) lower at $9.840 per cwt (about $217 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The
other grains are seen trading mixed: soybeans are currently seen about 0.2% lower, wheat is
listed unchanged and corn is currently noted 0.1% lower.U.S. stocks opened sharply lower on
Friday, following a global decline in equities on renewed Greece concerns and new Chinese

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trading regulations, amid U.S. inflation and consumer data.
Major European stock indices were down about one percent or more, following a selloff in
Chinese futures over news of coming government regulation to expand short-selling and limit
over-the-counter margin trading. Focus for European markets has been on Greek Finance
Minister Yanis Varoufakis' visit to meet IMF officials, as investors become increasingly nervous
about the funding crisis in Greece. Futures held lower but above morning lows after the
consumer price index showed an increase of 0.2% in March, below expectations of
0.3%.However, the figure marked the second-straight month of gains and matched February's
0.2% gain.
Core CPI, excluding food and energy, came in slightly above expectations at 0.2%, the same
level as in February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 154 points, or 0.85%, at
17,952. The S&P 500 traded down 12 points, or 0.57%, at 2,092, with energy leading all sectors
except utilities lower. The Nasdaq traded down 35 points, or 0.68%, at 4,973. Gold is currently
trading about 0.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is
currently trading about 0.3% higher at 9:00am Chicago time.

South Korea's Rice Production May Decline

by a Quarter by 2050 Due to Global
Warming, Say Researchers
Apr 17, 2015

Researchers at the Korea Rural Economic

Institute has predicted that South Korea's rice
production is likely to reduce by about a one
million tons or about 24% by 2050 due to the
effects of global warming, according to local
sources.They noted that the amount of arable
land in the country has been decreasing and is
likely to decline further due to climate change.
The Korea Meteorological Administration also
confirmed that temperature in the country will
increase significantly during the period leading to drying of the fertile land required for rice
farming.

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The Institute expects rice-sufficiency of the country could fall to less than 50% by 2050.
Currently, South Korea is over 80% self-sufficient in rice production.In order to prepare for the
scenario, the Institute has recommended investment in requisite agriculture infrastructure and
development of climate smart rice varieties. It also advised the government to educate farmers
regarding use of the agricultural infrastructure and newer rice varieties.
USDA estimates South Korea's milled rice production at around 4.24 million tons in MY 201415 (November - October), slightly up from an estimated 4.23 million tons in MY 2013-14. It
estimates South Korea to import around 410,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15, up about 31% from
313,000 tons imported in MY 2013-14. USDA estimates South Koreas 2014-15 domestic
consumption for rice to decline to around 4.45 million tons from around 4.46 million tons in
2013-14.

Tanzania Rice Farmers Achieve Higher

Yields with SRI Farming
Apr 17, 2015

Farmers in Tanzania's Mbeya Irrigation Zone have achieved two times higher yields with the
Systematic Rice Intensification (SRI) farming technique, according to local sources.Farmers in
the two irrigation schemes - Mbuyuni Kimani and Magozi - of the Mbeya Irrigation Zone who
were trained in the technique told local sources that the SRI method is useful in doubling their
yields, saving water and is also economically viable. The Secretary of the Mbuyuni Kimani
irrigation scheme noted that the method was introduced in around 2,000 hectares and around
3,020 small farmers are being benefited. He added that more farmers will be trained in the
method and adoption of this method will change the living standards of farmers in this Irrigation
Zone.
He noted that with the SRI method, farmers have increased their yields from four tons per
hectare to nine tons per hectare.The Uyole Agriculture Research Institute has provided training
to farmers in SRI method in five regions of Mbeya, Ruvuma, Iringa, Njombe, Rukwa and
Katavi.SRI is a low water, labor intensive, organic method of rice farming. In the SRI system,
only a single seedling, which can yield 200 seeds per panicle, is used unlike a cluster of
seedlings used in traditional farming system.

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Sri Lankan Rice Farmers Urged to Adopt

Flexible Planting Techniques to Combat
Weather Changes

Apr 17, 2015

Officials at the Department of Agriculture have urged the rice farmers to adopt flexible planting
techniques in order to mitigate the impact of fluctuating weather patterns such as alternating
floods and drought, according to local sources.The change in the weather patterns has been quite
visible in last five years. Sri Lanka has been witnessing alternating floods and drought since
2012. The South Asian nation experience drought in 2012, floods in 2013, drought and flooding
in 2014. A World Food Programme (WFP) rapid assessment report released in January this year
confirmed that farmers in affected areas had built up huge levels of debts due to these changing
weather patterns.

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The Chief Climatologist at the Department noted that farmers need to be more proactive and
quick to change their planting patterns depending on the existing weather conditions. He noted
that when there were early indications of drought, the Department suggested the farmers to shift
from planting rice to other drought-resistant crops such as bananas, chillies and maize. However,
farmers have not heeded to the Department's suggestions and planted rice in around 650,000
hectares during the main season, he added. A prolonged drought brought huge losses to farmers
as they could harvest only 520,000 hectares, he said.
Agriculture and disaster experts noted that Sri Lankan farmers rely in traditional farming
methods and do not have proper understanding of changing weather patterns. The Assistant
Director at the government's warned that if farmers do not heed to information about changing
weather patterns, they will have to bear irreversible losses.
In a February report, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) forecasted Sri Lanka's
total paddy at around 4.1 million tons in 2015 (around 2.7 million tons, basis milled), up about
18% from around 3.5 million tons (around 2.3 million tons, basis milled) produced in 2014.
According to the FAO, in 2014, Sri Lanka registered its lowest paddy production since 2010 due
to the prolonged drought conditions. The FAO estimated Sri Lanka's 2015 rice imports to be
lower than estimated 520,000 tons in 2014 due to an expected recovery in this year's rice
production. But they are likely to remain above the 2009-2013 average.USDA estimates Sri
Lanka to produce around 2.85 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 4.19 million tons, basis
paddy) and import around 120,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (October 2014 - September 2015).

TREA Forecasts Thailand Rice Exports to

Decline 22% y/y to 8 Million Tons in 2015
Apr 17, 2015

The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) has estimated Thailand's rice exports to decline
about 22-27% to around 8-8.5 million tons due to falling global rice export prices and stiff with
Vietnam, India and Pakistan.Local sources quoted the Director-General of the Foreign Trade
Department as saying that factors such as global currency volatility, a stronger baht, lower oil
prices and local economic conditions in importing countries have been affecting Thailand's rice
exports for the last few days.
Meanwhile, the Thai Commerce Ministry's decision to delay the third rice auction this year to
avert downward pressure on already falling rice prices is also impacting Thai rice exports
severely. Since the government has suspended direct sales thorough general auctions to ensure
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stable prices during the harvest season, exporters are now focusing on government-togovernment (G2G) contracts.Traders and exporters have warned the government to be cautious
in offloading excess stocks into the market keeping view the current volatility in proces. The
government is now carefully evaluating markets to decide over the timing for reopening bidding
for its government stocks, according to local sources.The Thai government is currently holding
over 17 million tons of rice in its stockpiles and is planning to sell around 10 million tons of rice
this year and around 7 million tons next year. The Thai military government sold about 1.88
million tons of rice from six auctions raising around 25.58 billion baht (around $785.2 million)
since it seized power in May 2014.
Domestic prices of Thai 5% rice fell to around 11,969 (around $367) per ton in March 2015
compared to around 12,250 baht (around $376 per ton) last month, according to UN's Food and
Agricultural Organization (FAO). Export prices of Thai 5% rice currently stands at around $387
per ton, down about 5.6% from around $410 per ton in the beginning of this year. Export prices
of India 5% rice and Vietnam 5% rice declined about 3.8% and 5.2% to around $375 per ton and
$363 per ton respectively since the beginning of this year.Separately, the National AntiCorruption Commission (NACC) is likely to file a civil lawsuit against 20 private companies
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allegedly involved in falsifying G2G rice deals under the previous government's rice pledging
program

Vietnam Rice Quotes Mixed Today; Other

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged
Apr 17, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $355$365 per ton and increased their quotes for Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton to around $480$490 per ton today. Other Asia rice quotes are unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton about a $25 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
India 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $5 per ton discount to Pakistan
5% rice shown at around $375 - $385 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $335- $345 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$345 - $355, about a $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $330 - $340
per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice
shown at around $380 - $390 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about a $10 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton.
India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about a $10 per ton discount
to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.
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Weekly Recap: Oryza White Rice Index Hits

New Low
Apr 17, 2015

The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,
ended the week at about $410 per ton, down about $3 per ton from a week ago, down about $6
per ton from a month ago and down about $42 per ton from a year ago.
The USDA forecasts 2014-15 global milled rice production at 474.6 million tons, down slightly
from the previous year. The USDA forecasts 2015 global rice trade at 42.3 million tons, down
1.4% from 2014s trade.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about
$385 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week and a month ago, and unchanged from a year
ago.
The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) has estimated Thailand's rice exports to decline
about 22-27% to around 8-8.5 million tons due to falling global rice export prices and stiff with
Vietnam, India and Pakistan. Domestic prices of Thai 5% rice fell to around 11,969 (around
$367) per ton in March 2015 compared to around 12,250 baht (around $376 per ton) last month.
Separately, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is likely to file a civil lawsuit
against 20 private companies allegedly involved in falsifying G2G rice deals under the previous
government's rice pledging program.
Experts say that Japan may reduce rice purchases from Thailand if the Trans-Pacific Partnership
with the U.S. materializes.
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $360 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a
week ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $25 per ton from a year
ago.
Vietnam has exported about 182,400 tons of rice in February, down about 43% from January and
down about 45% from the same period last year.
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Vietnam enterprises have bought about 99.4% or 994,294 tons of the targeted one-million tons of
winter-spring rice under the government-approved stock piling plan from March 1-April 13. The
scheme is expected to conclude this week.
India
India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week
ago, down about $20 per ton from a month ago and down about $55 per ton from a year ago.
The UNs FAO forecasts Indias 2015 rice exports to decline about 18% from last year to 9.3
million tons, due to a lower harvest from the 2014 kharif rice crop (June-December).
The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices has advised the government to increase the
minimum support price for common grade paddy by about 3.6% or Rs.50 per quintal (about $8
per ton) for the 2015-16 (July-June) crop season.
The first weekly auction for rice under the Open Market Sale Scheme last week received
lukewarm responses from traders and private purchasers due to high prices.
Planting for India 2014-15 rabi (secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around
4.056 million hectares as of April 17, 2015; down about 7% from around 4.355 million hectares
planted during the same period last year, according to preliminary data released by the Indian
Agriculture Ministry. Rabi rice acreage remained unchanged from the week-ended April 10,
2015.
The Indian Council of Agricultural Research plans to develop two nutrient-rich rice varieties
zinc-rich and protein-rich.
Indias southern state of Kerala has seen an increase in the rice production in the kharif season
(June-October) because of better management of under- and un-utilized areas compared to earlier
years. Most recent data suggest the state has seen an increase of 14.32% from last year in total
rice production.
On the other hand, rice production in the southern state Telangana (called the rice bowl) has
seen substantial decline for paddy production this Rabi season, due to factors such as drought,
groundwater depletion, and insufficient inflows.
Experts warn that the governments decision to end the levy rice procurement system from the
2015-16 kharif marketing season (October-September) will likely has a significant negative
impact on rice farmers and consumers.
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Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $380 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week
ago, up about $30 per ton from a month ago and down about $30 per ton from a year ago.
Pakistan rice millers are urging the government to announce new rice export policy to help them
avoid huge losses due to low rice prices, according to local sources. Pakistan rice exporters have
also been constantly complaining that lack of proper infrastructure facilities and tax sops are
reducing the competitiveness of Pakistan rice producers and exporters. Export prices of Pakistan
5% rice currently stand at around $380 per ton compared to around $375 per ton, $375 per ton
and $360 per ton of India 5% rice, Thai 5% rice and Viet 5% rice respectively.
The Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) and the National Food Authority (NFA) of
the Philippines have agreed to expedite and complete a rice agreement that was signed between
the two agencies in 2013. Under the agreement, the NFA would import 50,000 tons of rice from
Pakistan.
Central & South America
Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $550 per ton, unchanged from a week and a
month ago and down about $115 per ton from a year ago. Brazil has exported around 262,471
tons of rice in the first three months of 2015.
The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by CEPEA reached around 35.83 real per 50
kilograms as of April 10, 2015, down about 0.19% from around 35.9 real per 50 kilograms
recorded on April 2, 2015. In terms of USD per ton, the index reached around $232.75 per ton
on April 10, 2015, up about 2.06% from around $228.04 per ton recorded on April 2, 2015. Rice
stocks in Brazil declined to about 134,255 tons in March, down slightly from February and down
about 76% from March 2014. Conab has forecasted the countrys 2014-15 paddy rice production
to be about 12.397 million tons, up about 2% from 2013-14.
Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $575 per ton,
unchanged from a week ago, down about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $50 per
ton from a year ago. Argentina has exported around 12,762 tons of rice in January, down about
75% from the same period in 2014.
The USDA Post estimates Venezuelas rice imports in MY 2015-16 (April-March) will be
around 500,000 tons, unchanged from the previous year.

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The USDA Post forecasts Dominican Republics MY 2015-16 paddy rice production at 776,000
tons, down about 2% from last year.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $485 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month
ago and down about $100 per ton from a year ago.
The U.S. cash market held mostly steady, despite declines in the futures market, but saw little
trading this week. The cash market dropped some on Thursday after the USDA reported
disappointing export sales.
Chicago rough rice futures started a downward trend this week that led to a 56-week
low. Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery started the week at $10.320 per cwt (about
$228 per ton) but declined steadily, reaching a low on Friday of $9.755 per cwt (about $215 per
ton) before closing the week at $9.920 per cwt (about $219 per ton).
The government of Japan may propose to increase tariff-rice imports from the U.S. in efforts to
conclude Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations that seem to have stalled.
Other Markets
Iraq has invited international tenders to purchase about 30,000 tons of rice from Uruguay,
Argentina, Brazil, Vietnam, Cambodia, Pakistan, India, Thailand, and the U.S. with bids due
April 26.
Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $440 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,
up about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $5 per ton from a year ago.
The USDA Post estimates Australias 2015-16 rice exports at 350,000 tons, down about 18%
from last year, due to an expected increase in production.
Rice stocks in the Philippines continued to decline for the third consecutive month, according to
the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. Total rice stocks as of March 1 reached about 2.27 million
tons, down about 3.4% from February but up about 27.5% from the same period last
year. Separately, the Philippines procurement agency is exploring ways to import rice from
different countries, including Pakistan, Myanmar, and India, in order to diversify rice import
origins which have been dominated by Vietnam and Thailand.

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A former Bulog official has urged that the government of Indonesia needs adequate farm land in
order to achieve rice self-sufficiency over the next few years.
A state purchasing agency in Syria has issued an international tender to purchase 6,360 tons of white
rice.

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