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P O L L I N G M E M O R A N D UM

TO:

INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM:

WPA OPINION RESEARCH

SUBJECT:

HEALTHY UTAH

DATE:

APRIL 15, 2015

The following memorandum highlights the key findings from a Wilson Perkins Allen poll
conducted on behalf of Silver Bullet, LLC. The Utah statewide poll was conducted among 500
likely general election voters and was conducted March 31-April 2, 2015. The full sample
has a margin of error equal to 4.4%.

SUPPORT FOR HEALTHY UTAH DROPS BELOW 50% AMONG INFORMED VOTERS
A majority of voters are not ready to support Healthy Utah when reminded that there is no
such thing as free federal money. Initially support for the healthcare proposal was 56
percent when the question was posed as Utah getting more money from the federal
government. However support fell to 47 percent, below a majority, once voters were
informed about the financial effects of Healthy Utah on the federal budget. Respondents
were asked the following question describing the Healthy Utah proposal.
Currently there is a proposal in Utah to expand state-administered, federalhealthcare benefits to potentially tens of thousands of more Utahns. The
State of Utah will be reimbursed for only two years by the federal government
for providing this expansion of healthcare benefits. Do you support or
oppose Utah accepting more federal dollars so it can provide more
healthcare benefits?
Results

Initial Response

Informed Response

Total Support

56%

47%

Total Oppose

28%

40%

Not only does overall support diminish and opposition increase when general election voters
become informed, but the intensity of strong opposition increases to nearly the same
percentage as those who are strongly support the healthcare proposal.

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 2015 WPA Opinion Research

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Do you support or oppose Utah accepting more federal dollars so it can

provide more healthcare benefits?

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

23%

35%

12%
15%
16%

34%

Initial

Strongly Oppose
11%

Somewhat Oppose

12%

Undecided

16%

Somewhat Support
Strongly Support

26%
Informed

Driving the drop in support for the healthcare proposal are the messages of the long-term
financial consequences to the national economy and the financial burden that future
generations will be under.
Now, I am going to read you some brief statements that you might hear
about the healthcare proposal. For each statement, please tell me whether
this information would make you more likely to support or oppose healthcare
proposal, or if it makes no difference either way.

Confidential

Total
Support

Total
Oppose

Theres no such thing as free federal money. The

proposal increases deficit spending, the national
debt, and the interest owed to foreign countries; all
of which, hurts the dollars buying power, and
reduces the value of savings and retirement
accounts.

33%

44%

The proposal increases generational debt our

children and grandchildren will have to pay to the
federal government for decades to come.

23%

50%

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 2015 WPA Opinion Research

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In addition to the messages of the indirect financial consequences, Utahns were also moved
to oppose Healthy Utah when they were informed that they may later have to directly pay for
the healthcare proposal that expands Medicaid to a larger population made possible by the
passage of Obamacare.
For each statement, please tell me whether this information would make you
more likely to support or oppose healthcare proposal, or if it makes no
difference either way.

Confidential

Total
Support

Total
Oppose

Once a new government subsidy is granted to a

population, it is hardly ever taken away. Should the
federal government ever cut funding for Obamacare,
Utah taxpayers would most likely end up paying for
Obamacares mandates forever with higher state
income taxes.

22%

57%

House Ways and Means Chairman, Paul Ryan, has

said that within the next two years states, like Utah,
will have to pay a much larger share of the costs of
this proposal to expand healthcare benefits.

27%

39%

The proposal increases the population who become

dependent on government handouts.

18%

56%

The proposal is an expansion of government-run

healthcare in Utah to young, healthy, single, ablebodied adults whose earnings are up to thirty-eight
percent above the poverty line, many of whom
already have coverage.

25%

44%

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 2015 WPA Opinion Research

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OBAMA VOTERS AND SELF-IDENTIFIED LIBERALS ARE TOP GROUPS IN SUPPORT

OF HEALTHY UTAH
Political ideology and party affiliation are likely factors as to whether or not a voter supports
Healthy Utah. The top groups of voters to support and oppose Healthy Utah are directly
opposite of each other. Liberals and Democrats are more than twice as likely to support the
healthcare proposal as conservatives and Republicans are to opposing it.
Top Groups
To Support Healthy Utah

Voted for Obama in 2012

89%

Liberal

88%

Democrat

74%

To Oppose Healthy Utah

Conservative

41%

Republican

38%

UTAHNS WANT MORE STATE PLANNING FOR FEDERAL BUDGET WOES

One-third, or about four billion dollars, of Utahs state budget comes from federal
government sources. When told this, Utahns want their state government to plan ahead for
federal budget cuts by a margin of nearly two-to-one.
Would you support or oppose a law requiring the Utah legislature to list how it
will fund state-provided government services that are partially or wholly
funded by Washington D.C. if federal funding is cut?

Confidential

TOTAL SUPPORT
TOTAL OPPOSE

62%
23%

1.
2.
3.

Strongly Support
Somewhat Support
Undecided/DK/Refused DNR

4.
5.

Somewhat Oppose
Strongly Oppose

44%
18%
15%
9%
15%

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 2015 WPA Opinion Research

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INFORMED VOTERS IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ARE MORE OPPOSED TO

HEALTHY UTAH THAN GENERAL ELECTION VOTERS
Combined, both Republican and unaffiliated voters who can vote in a Republican Primary
Election are less likely to support Healthy Utah. The initial support/oppose gap of 15 percent
found among likely voters in the Republican Primary is only about half the size of the starting
gap found among likely General Election voters. After primary voters were reminded of the
added financial burdens the healthcare proposal would place on the nation and future
generations, those who opposed Healthy Utah outnumbered those who supported it.
Do you support or oppose Utah accepting more federal dollars so it can
provide more healthcare benefits?
Results

Initial Response

Informed Response

Total Support

50%

42%

Total Oppose

35%

46%

Informed likely primary voters who strongly oppose the healthcare proposal have an intensity
advantage of nine-points over those who support it.

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

23%

35%

12%
15%
16%

34%

Initial

Strongly Oppose
11%

Somewhat Oppose

12%

Undecided

16%

Somewhat Support
Strongly Support

26%
Informed

Of the 500 surveys fielded, 251 surveys qualified as likely voters in the Republican Primary,
which are defined as those who expressed a high interest in voting in the 2016 Primary
election and are registered Republicans or unaffiliated with any party.

Confidential

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 2015 WPA Opinion Research

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FINDINGS

Confidential

Expansion of healthcare benefits is desired by a majority of Utahns until the financial

consequences are considered.
Support for Healthy Utah wanes once voters are reminded that increased federal
spending increases the federal deficit and adds to the national debt, a debt that
future generations will have to pay.
Utahns are concerned about the possibility that in the near future they may have to
pay for the increased federal subsidies by raising state income taxes.
Utahns are worried about growing the population dependent on the government for
subsidized healthcare.
Liberals and Democrats are the most likely groups to support the healthcare
proposal, while conservatives and Republicans are the top groups opposed to it.
Those who oppose the healthcare proposal outnumber those who support it among
informed Republicans and unaffiliated voters who expressed a high interest in voting
in the 2016 Primary election.
Nearly two-thirds of Utahns want the state to plan to fund government services in
case federal funding is cut.

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 2015 WPA Opinion Research

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Methodology
WPA Opinion Research conducted a statewide study in Utah of likely general election voters.
Respondents were screened to ensure that they were not a member of the news media, a
public relations company, or a political campaign. The sample for this survey was selected
randomly using registration based sampling and was stratified based on gender, age,
ethnicity, party, and geography. This methodology minimized post-survey weighting which
can reduce the reliability of survey results. Respondents were contacted on landline and
mobile telephones via a live operator interview between March 31 and April 2, 2015. The
study has a sample size of 500 likely general election voters and a margin of error equal to
+4.4%.

About Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Since 1998, WPA Opinion Research has been a leading provider of political polling for
campaigns in all 50 states and several foreign countries. WPA has been nationally
recognized for our efforts to provide cutting edge research. The American Association of
Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded a Pollie to WPA for our Predictive Analytics work. The
award highlighted WPAs Adaptive Sampling and Predictive Analytics methodologies which
allowed us to outperform national polling trends and deliver industry-leading results.

Confidential

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