Last modified: Friday, January 22, 2010 11:28 PM EST

Earthquake threat real in region

By Laura Paine / For the Item
Could it happen here?

The world has been riveted by the unfolding tragedy in Haiti since the 7.0
earthquake on Jan. 12 and many in New England may not have given much thought or
concern to the notion that the ground could ever unleash similar fury here.

A leading Massachusetts expert on the matter warns, however, that there is a very
real possibility our region will one day be hit by a tremor of equal or greater
magnitude.

"In my opinion, we cannot rule out the possibility of an earthquake the size of the
one that hit Haiti last week," said Dr. John Ebel Ph.D, director of the Weston
Observatory of Boston College and professor of Geophysics at B.C. "We do have
steady earthquake activity that happens in New England year in and year out.

"Rough rule of thumb is that we get anywhere from three-to-six felt earthquakes per
year somewhere in the New England region. You look anywhere in the globe where
there are regular earthquakes occurring and those places usually, sooner or later,
have larger and potentially damaging quakes."

The most severe earthquake recorded in our area, measuring between 6 and 6.25 on
the Richter Scale, hit 21 years before our nation formed. The Cape Ann Earthquake
was centered off the coast of Gloucester and occurred the evening of Nov. 18, 1755.
That quake toppled nearly 1,500 chimneys in Boston and was felt from Nova Scotia
down to South Carolina, Ebel said.

Although newer buildings in the U.S. are much stronger than those that crumbled in
Haiti - and structures including hospitals are required today to be built to
withstand strong earthquakes - Ebel estimates that an earthquake the size of the
one that devastated Port Au Prince last week would still cause billions worth of
damage here.

"We have many older structures that are not built to withstand earthquakes very
well. Brick, cinderblock buildings and un-reinforced concrete buildings cannot
withstand earthquake shaking very well," Ebel said.

Most damaging earthquakes, Ebel said, are typically those where the plates of earth
shake sideways, like the one in Haiti.

"An old building like a 19th century mill building made of brick would probably
take damage in an earthquake like that," Ebel said.

The quake that hit Indonesia and spurred the tsunami in December 2004 was a
different type, where an undersea plate shifted up, thus spurring the massive tidal
wave. That was certainly as devastating in terms of human toll (250,00 dead) and
property loss, but it was tsunami and not the shaking that was the culprit there.

Ebel said cities built on landfills and other places where there are soft soils can
amplify the shake of an earthquake. An area of particular concern, he said, is
Boston's Back Bay, which was constructed on a large landfill. The damage there from
a 6.25 earthquake would be much more severe, he said, than someplace like the hills
of Brookline.

"Lynn would be on the same scenario as you would for Boston, urban versus a
suburban or rural event, because you are talking about more people, but also the
type of structures you have in inner cities - tall buildings, brick buildings, the
types of things which can lead to many more casualties," said Peter Judge,
information officer at the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (MEMA).

Although scientists are near an early warning system for earthquakes, that does not
exist now. Damage from quakes begin at around magnitude 5 on the Richter Scale
(each point on the scale is 10 times more powerful). Ebel said quakes of that
magnitude hit New England every 50 or 60 years on average. The last earthquake of
that magnitude occurred near Ossipee, N.H., in 1940.

Considering the average alone, New England is due for an earthquake magnitude 5 or
higher, but he pointed out that averages are not accurate predictors.

"If you have two earthquakes that occur 99 years apart and then another earthquake
one year later, the average repeat time for those earthquakes is 50 years, but that
doesn't mean you have an earthquake every 50 years," Ebel said. "What we do know is
the earthquake activity occurs regularly, there have been damaging earthquakes in
the historic past and the tectonic plates continue to move steadily over the earth
year after year.

"What has given us earthquakes in the past geologically will continue to give us
earthquakes in the future," Ebel said.

Massachusetts prepares for any type of natural disaster or mass casualty with a
program called All Hazard Planning.

According to Judge, from MEMA, 85 percent of what relief workers do is the same
regardless of the type of natural disaster. Evacuation routes, shelters and the
location of special needs facilities in communities are the same.

"An earthquake is our worst case scenario, least likely to happen out of the major
type of events that we could experience - it's been over 250 years since the last
major earthquake in the area, but obviously if it happened once it can happen
again," Judge said. "We have tabletop exercises with all of the key state and
federal agencies periodically and probably deal with an earthquake scenario every
few years."

Fortunately for our area, response time would be quick, since there is a Federal
Emergency Management (FEMA) regional headquarters in Beverly, from which search and
rescue team are coordinated and dispatched. In fact, teams from the Beverly FEMA
headquarters searched the rubble of the World Trade Center following the 9-11
attacks.

"Having that asset close would help in dealing with the event," Judge said.