Professional Documents
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Automation in Construction
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/autcon
Dept. of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology,#43, Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan, ROC
Department of Civil Engineering, Parahyangan Catholic University, Indonesia
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Accepted 27 July 2012
Available online 24 August 2012
Keywords:
High performance concrete
Fuzzy logic
Time series
Weighted support vector machines
Fast messy genetic algorithms
a b s t r a c t
The major different between High Performance Concrete (HPC) and conventional concrete is essentially the
use of mineral and chemical admixture. These two admixtures made HPC mechanical behavior act differently
compare to conventional concrete at microstructures level. Certain properties of HPC are not fully understood
since the relationship between ingredients and concrete properties is highly nonlinear. Therefore, predicting
HPC behavior is relatively difcult compared to predicting conventional concrete behavior. This paper proposes an Articial Intelligence hybrid system to predict HPC compressive strength that fuses Fuzzy Logic
(FL), weighted Support Vector Machines (wSVM) and fast messy genetic algorithms (fmGA) into an Evolutionary Fuzzy Support Vector Machine Inference Model for Time Series Data (EFSIMT). Validation results
show that the EFSIMT achieves higher performance in comparison with Support Vector Machines (SVM)
and obtains results comparable with Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPN). Hence, EFSIMT offers strong
potential as a valuable predictive tool for HPC compressive strength.
2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
High-performance concrete (HPC) is a construction material that
has gained in popularity over the last decade due to special characteristics that include high workability, high strength, and high durability [35]. HPC differs from conventional concrete, which is a
mixture of four ingredients, namely Portland cement (PC), water,
ne aggregates and coarse aggregates. HPC employs an additional
two ingredients, namely a mineral admixture (e.g., y ash, blast
furnace slag, silica fume) and a chemical admixture (superplasticizer)
[11]. Therefore, the major difference between HPC and conventional
concrete is essentially the use of mineral and chemical admixtures
[5,29].
Those two admixtures made HPC mechanical behavior acts differently compare to conventional concrete at microstructure level
[2]. The microstructure of HPC is more compact as mineral admixture acts as ne ller and pozzolanic materials. Moreover chemical
Corresponding author at: Jl. Ciumbuleuit 94, Bandung, 40141, West Java, Indonesia.
Tel.: +62 22 2033691; fax: +62 22 2033692.
E-mail addresses: myc@mail.ntust.edu.tw (M.-Y. Cheng), jschou@mail.ntust.edu.tw
(J.-S. Chou), roy_afvr@yahoo.com, andrevan@unpar.ac.id (A.F.V. Roy),
d9305503@mail.ntust.edu.tw (Y.-W. Wu).
1
Tel.: +886 2 27336596; fax: +886 2 27301074.
2
Tel.: +886 2 27376321; fax: +886 2 2737 6606.
3
Tel.: +886 2 2733004; fax: +886 2 27301074.
0926-5805/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2012.07.004
admixture reduces the water content which at the same time reduces level of porosity within the hydrated cement paste [2,29].
Therefore compressive strength of HPC is higher than conventional
concrete since those two admixtures decreased hydrated cement
paste porosity which represents the weakest links in concrete
microstructure.
Predicting HPC behavior is relatively difcult compared to
predicting conventional concrete behavior. Chou et al. [15] stated
that certain properties of HPC are not fully understood since the
relationship between ingredients and concrete properties is highly nonlinear. Therefore, traditional model of concrete properties is
inadequate for analyzing HPC compressive strength. Mix proportion is the process of choosing suitable ingredients of concrete
and determining their relative quantities with the object of producing as economically as possible concrete of certain minimum
properties, such as compressive strength [33]. There are popular
methods of mix proportion of HPC such method proposed by
[1,2,32] among other methods [28]. However, to obtain required
mix proportions of HPC most commonly based on trial mixes as
stated in relevant standards, experience, and rules of thumb approach [3,29].
Compressive strength is a mechanical property critical to measuring HPC quality [4,34]. Twenty-eighth day compressive strength is the
most widely used objective function in the mixture design. However,
as pointed out previously, the result depends on ingredient combinations and proportions, mixing techniques and other factors that must
107
strength. GOT comprises an operation tree (OT) and genetic algorithm (GA), and automatically produces self-organized formulas to
predict strengths. However, even though GOT obtained results that
were better than non-linear regression formulas, prediction accuracy was inferior to those of ANNs.
The success of ANN and its variants as AI techniques in handling
highly complex materials such as HPC opened the possibilities of
using other AI approaches. The development of new AI techniques
has spurred follow-on research into their adoption and utilization
in the construction industry. For example, SVM, which represents
a new AI technique, has been shown to deliver comparable or
higher performance than traditional learning machines and has
been introduced as a powerful tool to solve classication and regression problems [7,13]. However, SVM presents several inherent
shortcomings. Firstly, SVM is unable to provide high prediction accuracy for either the penalty parameter (C) or kernel parameter settings. Secondly, SVM considers all training data points equally in
order to establish the decision surface. Therefore, Ling and Wang
[30] proposed a modied version of SVM, known as fuzzy SVM
(FSVM) or weighted SVM (wSVM), to weight all training data
points in order to allow different input points to contribute differently to the learning decision surface. Such modication is also suitable when the case problem involves time series prediction
problems, where older training points are associated with lower
weights, so that the effect of older training points is reduced
when the regression function is optimized.
The main purpose of this research study was to predict compressive strength in HPC using an AI hybrid system that fused FL, wSVM
and fast messy genetic algorithms (fmGA) into an evolutionary
fuzzy support vector machine inference model for time series data
(EFSIMT). Within the EFSIMT, FL is used as a fuzzy inference mechanism to handle vagueness and uncertainty due to material characteristics such as HPC ingredient mix, workmanship, site environment
situations, temperature, etc. wSVM handles the complex fuzzy
inputoutput mapping relationship and focuses on time series data
characteristics inherent in HPC experimental datasets as compressive
strength measured at different testing ages. fmGA is deployed as an
optimization tool to handle FL and wSVM search parameters. This
study applied HPC experimental data originally generated by Yeh
[40] and posted to the University of California, Irvine machine learning repository website. To verify and validate the proposed system,
EFSIMT performance was compared against original SVMs and
back-propagation neural network (BPN).
2. Brief introduction to FL, weighted SVMs, time series analysis,
and fmGA
2.1. Fuzzy logic
Fuzzy logic (FL) is a popular AI technique invented by Zadeh in the
1960s that has been used in forecasting, decision making and action
control in environments characterized by uncertainty, vagueness, presumptions and subjectivity [6]. Chan et al. [9] found that, between
1996 and 2005, FL was used by many scholars in construction-related
research, either as single or hybrid techniques that may be categorized
into four different types, namely: decision-making, performance, evaluation/assessment, and modeling. Cases including contractor selection in
multi-criteria environments, sustainable residential building assessments, site layout planning, dynamic resource allocation, procurement
selection modeling, bid/no-bid decision-making, and project selection
are several example applications of FL in construction management
decision-making.
FL consists of four major components, namely fuzzication, rule
base, inference engine and defuzzication. Fuzzication is a process
that uses membership functions (MFs) to convert the value of input
variables into corresponding linguistic variables. The result, which is
108
1
t t 1
t m
t m t 1 i
t m t 1
t t 2
si f q t i 1 i 1
t m t 1
si f e t i
1
1
:
1 exp 2 tt i t
t
l
In this paper, to avoid confusion with the FL technique, the term wSVM is used.
the trade-off between margin maximization and violation error minimization, represent an issue that requires attention and handling. Another point of concern is the setting of kernel parameters, such as
gamma (), on the radial basis function, which must also be set properly
to improve prediction accuracy. In addition, using wSVM requires users
to set a further parameter, i.e., weighting data parameter . Therefore,
three different parameters must be optimized, including the penalty parameter (C), kernel parameter (i.e. , if the RBF kernel is employed), and
. To overcome this challenge, an optimization technique (e.g., fmGA)
may be used to identify best parameters simultaneously [13].
2.3. Time series analysis
Time series analysis is a powerful data analysis technique with
two specic goals. The rst goal is to identify a suitable mathematical
model for data, and the second is to forecast future values in a series
based on established patterns and, possibly, other relevant series and/
or factors [16].
Over the past several decades, much has been written in the technical literature about linear prediction in time series analysis, covering such approaches as smoothing methods, the BoxJenkins time
series model and the auto regression model. Accurate and unbiased
estimation of time series data produced by these linear techniques
cannot always be achieved, as real word applications are generally
not amenable to linear prediction techniques [37]. Real world time
series applications are fraught by highly nonlinear, complex, dynamic
and uncertain conditions in the eld. Thus, estimation requires development of a more advanced time series prediction algorithm, such as
that achieved using an AI approach.
Refenes et al. [36] described structural change as a time series data
characteristic that should always be taken into account in all methodological approaches to time-series analysis. In light of this characteristic, Cao et al. [8] expressed that recent data provide more relevant
information than distant data. Consequently, recent data should be
assigned weights relatively greater than weights assigned earlier
data. Cao et al. [8] and Khemchandani et al. [25] adopted this approach effectively by applying AI techniques such as SVMs and
wSVMs in nancial time series forecasting applications.
2.4. Fast messy genetic algorithm
The fast messy genetic algorithm (fmGA) is a genetic algorithmbased optimization tool able to nd optimal solutions to large-scale
permutation problems efciently. Goldberg et al. [21] developed
fmGA as an improvement on messy genetic algorithms (mGAs). Different from simple genetic algorithms (sGAs), which describe possible
solutions using xed length strings, fmGA applies messy chromosomes
to form strings of various lengths [17,19].
A messy chromosome is a collection of messy genes. A messy gene
in fmGA is represented by the paired values allele locus and allele
value. Allele locus indicates gene position and allele value represents
the value of the gene in that position. Consider the two messy chromosomes as follows: chromosome C1: ((1 0) (2 1) (3 1) (1 1)) and
C2: ((3 1) (1 0)) both represent valid strings with lengths of three.
As the above example shows, messy chromosomes may have various
lengths. Moreover, messy chromosomes may be either over-specied
or underspecied in terms of encoding bit-wise strings. Chromosome
C1 is an over-specied string, which has two different values in the gene
1 position. To handle this over-specied chromosome, the string may be
scanned from left to right following the rst-come-rst-served rule.
Thus, C1 represents bit string 011. On the other hand, a competitive
template would be employed to evaluate an underspecied chromosome, such as C2. The competitive template is a problem-specic,
xed-bit string that is either generated randomly or found during the
search process. As shown in Fig. 1, if the competitive template is 111,
C2 represents bit string 011 by assigning corresponding allele values
109
X a X L
X U X L
X U X max X range =10
X L X min X range =10
where
Xn
Xa
XU
XL
Xmax
Xmin
Xrange
(2) Data weighting. For time series prediction problems, certain data
points are more important to the training process and others are
less important, based on the nearness of their date to the present
and degree of noise corruption. To deal with such issues, the
model applies weight to each input point according to three
types of time functions, as shown in Eqs. (1)(3). In doing so, different input points can make different contributions to the learning of the approximated function, and can improve the SVM in
diminishing the effect of outliers and noisy data. Due to this
weighting process, the last data point xm will be treated as
most important, and thus be assigned an smvalue of 1. The rst
data point x1 will be treated as least important and given a
weighting value equal to . In this step, the value of was generated randomly and encoded by fmGA. In this research, the
LIBSVM developed by Chang and Lin [10] was embedded into
the EFSIMT model.
(3) Fuzzication. In this step, each normalized input attribute is
converted into corresponding membership grades. This mapping
of crisp quantity to fuzzy quantity is carried out by membership
function (MF) sets generated and encoded by fmGA. This study
used trapezoidal MFs and triangular MF shapes (see Fig. 3)
that, in general, may be developed by referencing summit points
and widths [23]. The summit and width representation method
(SWRM) was used in this study to encode complete MF sets
(see Fig. 3(c)) [27]. Fig. 4 illustrates the fuzzication process.
(4) Weighted SVM training model. In this step, wSVMs developed
based on SVMs are deployed to handle fuzzy inputoutput
110
6
fmGA
parameters search
NO
9
SVM
Parameters
MFs
(C, )
1
Training
Data
3
Data
Weighting
Defuzzification
Parameter
Fuzzification
Termination
criteria
Optimal
Prediction
Model
5
weighted SVM
training
model
YES
Fitness
evaluation
Defuzzification
Legend:
Data flow
Control flow
Fig. 2. EFSIMT structure.
into a binary string. Chromosomes consist of two segments, including FL and weighted SVMs. The FL segment contains MF
and dfp substrings. The weighted SVM segment contains penalty
parameters C, kernel parameter from the RBF function and the
lower boundary of weighted data parameter . Fig. 5 illustrates
the chromosome structure.
As mentioned above, MF substrings are encoded using the
SWRM method, which denes the distribution of uneven MFs
using their summits and widths (see Fig. 3(c)). In Fig. 3(a), trapezoidal MF summits are sm1 and sm2, whereas left and right
widths are wd1 and wd2, respectively. A triangular MF may be
regarded as a special trapezoidal MF case, in which sm1 = sm2.
A complete MF set includes two shoulders. Fig 3(c) shows the
complete trapezoidal MF set, consisting of ve summit points
(sm1, sm2, sm3, sm4, sm5) and four widths (wd1, wd2, wd3, wd4).
Applying the SWRM method, the required length of the MF binary substring RLMF may be dened as follows:
mapping. Fuzzication process output, in the form of membership grades, acts as fuzzy input for wSVMs. wSVMs train this
dataset to obtain the prediction model and use penalty (C) and
kernel parameters () that are randomly generated and
encoded by fmGA. This study used the RBF kernel as a reasonable rst choice [22].
(5) Defuzzication. Once the wSVM has nished the training process, output numbers are expressed in terms of fuzzy output,
which must be converted into crisp numbers. Employing
fmGA, the EFSIMT generates a random dfp substring and encodes
it to convert wSVM output. This evolutionary approach is simple
and straightforward, as it uses dfp as a common denominator for
wSVM output.
(6) fmGA parameter search. fmGA was employed to search concurrently for the ttest shapes of MFs, dfp, penalty parameter C, RBF
kernel parameter and the lower boundary of weighted data
parameter . As fmGA works based on the concept of genetic
operations, chromosome design plays a central role in achieving
objectives. The chromosome that represents a possible solution
for searched parameters consists of ve parts, namely the MF
substring, dfp substring, penalty parameter substring, kernel parameter substring and lower bound of weighting data substring.
Every substring has a specic length that should t within certain requirements, which correspond to the searched parameter.
These requirements include length of decimal point string and
upper and lower parameter bounds, among others.
The chromosome, as the model variable in EFSIMT, is encoded
sm1
sm1 = sm2
sm2
rn
cMF
sm
sm
wd
wd
n rl n rl
sm2
sm1
Membership grade
1.0
MF
RL
sm4 sm5
sm3
MF2
MF1
MF3
Degree
value
x1
x2
wd1
x4
x3
x1
wd2
x 2 = x3
wd1
x4
wd2
X lb
wd1
wd2
X ub
wd3
Fig. 3. Membership function: (a) trapezoidal; (b) triangular; (c) complete MF set [27].
wd4
sca
sca
X11
X12
111
sca
X13
...
X1n
...
MFset 1
mg1
x11
mg2
x11
MFset 3
MFset 2
mg3
x11
mg1
x12
mg2
x12
mg3
x12
mg1
x13
mg2
x13
MFset n
mg3
x13
...
mg
, x1n 1 ,
mg2
x1n
mg3
x1n
Legend:
sca
i : number of cases
: membership grade k of
sca
Xij
cMF
1
iv
n
8
where n iv represents the number of input variables. dfp is a
number searched by fmGA that will convert fuzzy output
from the inference engine into crisp output. The required
length rl x of the dfp binary substring may be dened by
adapting the variable mapping function of Gen and Cheng
[20] from domain [lb x, ub x], as follows:
rlx 1
x
b ub lb
rp
rlx
10 2 1
fi
MF1
MF2
MF3 MFn
dfp
consist of
sm1, sm2,,sm5
10
weighted
SVMs segment
FL segment
1
caw ser ccw mc
wd1,wd2...wd4
Legend:
MFi : membership function i-th
dfp : defuzzification parameter
C : penalty parameter
: RBF kernel parameter
: lower bound of weighting data parameter
smj : summit point j-th of MFi
wdj : width j-th of MFi
Fig. 5. EFSIMT chromosome structure.
Table 1
Summary of EFSIMT parameter settings.
Parameter
Upper bound
Lower bound
Number of bits
MF set
C
200
1
1
20
1
0
0.0001
0.1
0.05
0.5
27a
5
10
10
10
9
112
Table 2
HPC database: input and output variables.
Table 4
Comparison of results among SVMs, BPN and EFSIMT.
Input/output variables
Unit
Minimum
Maximum
Cement
Blast furnace slag
Fly ash
Water
Superplasticizer
Coarse aggregate
Fine aggregate
Age of testing
Concrete compressive strength
(kg/m3)
(kg/m3)
(kg/m3)
(kg/m3)
(kg/m3)
(kg/m3)
(kg/m3)
Day
MPa
102.00
0.00
0.00
121.75
0.00
801.00
594.00
1.00
2.33
540.00
359.40
200.10
247.00
32.20
1145.00
992.60
365.00
82.60
Dataset
Training set
Testing set
Evaluation
performance
measurement
SVMs
r
MAE (MPa)
RMSE (MPa)
R2
r
MAE (MPa)
RMSE (MPa)
R2
0.850
7.122
8.854
0.722
0.867
8.116
10.401
0.752
BPN
0.951
3.869
5.094
0.904
0.935
5.238
6.902
0.873
EFSIMT
Linear
Quadratic
Exponential
0.954
4.184
5.120
0.909
0.957
4.781
5.865
0.916
0.954
4.189
5.126
0.910
0.961
4.121
5.378
0.923
0.951
4.235
5.152
0.902
0.963
4.410
5.430
0.927
90% or 927 samples were assigned to the training set and the remainder, 10% or 103 samples, were assigned to the testing set. As the
EFSIMT was to be compared against SVM and BPN result accuracies,
SVM and BPN parameter setting procedures followed previous researcher
suggestions and settings. In this study, as suggested by Hsu et al. [22] parameter settings for SVMs, herein C and were set to 1 and 1k respectively,
with k representing number of input patterns. The parameter setting for
BPN followed Yeh [40] and Yeh and Lien [41] and assigned network architecture settings as: 1 hidden layer containing 8 hidden units, and learning
parameter settings as: 1.0 for learning rate, and 0.5 for momentum factor.
This study employed four performance measures, namely root
mean square error (RMSE), coefcient correlation (r), coefcient of
determination (R 2) and mean absolute error (MAE) to verify and validate the accuracy of the proposed system and other AI models.
Table 4 shows RSME, r, R 2, and MAE results of the proposed EFSIMT
system (linear, quadratic and exponential time series functions) compared against the other AI systems (SVM and BPN). Based on the four
different evaluation methods for both training and testing datasets,
SVMs provided the least satisfactory result. In comparing BPN and
EFSIMT (linear, quadratic and exponential time series functions)
based on RSME and MAE, BPN performed slightly better than EFSIMT,
but only on training data (not on the testing data set). However, in
terms of coefcient correlation (r) and the coefcient of determination (R 2) for the training data set, EFSIMT is comparable to BPN.
Fig. 6 presents scatter diagrams of SVMs, BPN and EFSIMT (linear,
quadratic and exponential time series functions) for the training
data set.
Better results were achieved by EFSIMT in terms of predicting testing dataset results, which shows that the EFSIMT training data learning process provides a prediction model superior to BPN. Such
conrms that EFSIMT (linear, quadratic and exponential time series
functions) delivers comparable or higher performance than BPN.
This better learning ability demonstrates EFSIMT ability to cope with
Table 3
HPC database examples.
Cement
(kg/m3)
Fly ash
(kg/m3)
Water
(kg/m3)
Superplasticizer
(kg/m3)
Coarse aggregate
(kg/m3)
Fine aggregate
(kg/m3)
Age of testing
(day)
540.0
540.0
332.5
332.5
198.6
168.0
168.0
190.0
485.0
374.0
313.3
425.0
425.0
375.0
0.0
0.0
142.5
142.5
132.4
42.1
42.1
190.0
0.0
189.2
262.2
106.3
106.3
93.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
163.8
163.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
162.0
162.0
228.0
228.0
192.0
121.8
121.8
228.0
146.0
170.1
175.5
153.5
151.4
126.6
2.5
2.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.7
5.7
0.0
0.0
10.1
8.6
16.5
18.6
23.4
1040.0
1055.0
932.0
932.0
978.4
1058.7
1058.7
932.0
1120.0
926.1
1046.9
852.1
936.0
852.1
676.0
676.0
594.0
594.0
825.5
780.1
780.1
670.0
800.0
756.7
611.8
887.1
803.7
992.6
28
28
270
365
360
14
28
28
28
3
3
3
3
3
79.99
61.89
40.27
41.05
44.30
17.82
24.24
40.86
71.99
34.40
28.80
33.40
36.30
29.00
SVMs
100
BPN
R2 = 0.7217
100
R2 = 0.9038
80
80
60
40
20
60
40
20
20
40
60
80
100
20
80
100
80
100
R2 = 0.9096
100
80
60
40
60
40
20
20
20
40
60
80
100
20
40
60
R2 = 0.9023
100
80
60
Quadratic EFSIM T
R2 = 0.9088
80
40
Linear EFSIMT
100
113
60
40
20
20
40
60
80
100
114
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